BITCOIN: Have You Forgotten 2022?

追加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Here's what we can unequivocally agree on. We can unequivocally agree that it is uncommon what the S&P 500 is doing right now. It's uncommon. It's unconventional. It's unexpected. We shouldn't necessarily be seeing the S&P 500 skyrocketing so aggressively to new all-time highs at this part of traditional and also cryptocurrency cycles. This is weird. It's strange. And evidently, if we just overlay the Bitcoin chart onto the S&P right now, it is dragging Bitcoin to the upside. Okay, it's been dragging Bitcoin to the upside alongside the S&P since this dip here at the end of March, right? So, you know, in theory, if the S&P 500 continues to the upside, Bitcoin will do the same.

[00:00:39]And in theory, that could damage Bitcoin's regular SQL structure. Now, there's a few reasons why that's not the base case. Reason number one, at the moment the S&P 500 is highly unpredictable and volatile because this is mostly driven by recent news in regards to geopolitical developments which obviously have been so volatile and unpredictable within themselves. The second reason why it's not the base case is because as we very well understand through regular rangebound analysis, in order for Bitcoin to actually be in a confirmed bull market, we would need to be seeing $98,000 taken. And that would be the first time Bitcoin would be creating a higher high and hence the first time Bitcoin would be in a confirmed macro bare bull market ending the macro downwards trend. And that at this point is pretty far away. And for all the good stuff we've seen in the Bitcoin local price action, it's only taken us up from 65,000 to 81,000 which is basically $16,000. There's essentially another $16,000 Bitcoin needs to go upwards. We're only halfway there. uh and us being halfway there um has been driven by the S&P 500 doing something it's literally never done before moving so aggressively which obviously is an unsustainable level of price movement and it would basically need to do that exact same thing again for Bitcoin to achieve macro bullishness. So the base case at this point is still that Bitcoin is in a macro bear market because one the charts do suggest that right we're still uh within rangebound bearishness where we're attacking the top of the range potentially breaking out of it regardless of that we're still very far away from where we need to be on the Bitcoin price chart and two also just the cycle in general is still very much you know suggesting that we go downwards until October this year and for all the bullish arguments it essentially boils down to the S&P P 500 will drag Bitcoin upwards, which is something that you can't really predict at this point as we know because the S&P is moving due to geopolitical developments, not necessarily TA. And for Bitcoin to get adequately high, uh we'd need to see the S&P 500 continue doing this rational price action for a substantial period of time, which within itself is a little bit unlikely. Now, most of you guys still say that this is a macro bear market. We did a poll 3 days ago, 1,400 votes. Uh 73% of the audience saying Bitcoin will go lower within this bare market. The bottom's not in yet. And that's probably because most of you guys understand the arguments I just made. Uh but also, you probably understand that what we're seeing right now isn't actually massively abnormal on Bitcoin, even though we seem to be breaking out of the current macro range. We seem to be poking our head above $80,000. If we take a look, and this is what we'll do in this video, we take a look at 2022.

[00:03:22]We take a look at 2018. We can see that this has actually happened before. So, we'll take a look at the price cycles charts in a moment. But before we do so, check out the Bitunix exchange. Everyone needs a place to buy and sell. Uh, this is the place you can do it. It's the best place to do it in my view. Global, nonkyc, never been hacked before. There's a reason why I use it personally. There's a reason why I suggest you do so as well. if you go to the pin comment or the description down below, you can click on that link and you'll get a 15% lifetime trading fee discount. So, go ahead and do that. It's the best way to help me out and it's the best way, frankly, to help yourself out by getting on an exchange that is very good. So, use that link and let's dive in. As I mentioned, I'm focusing very heavily on rangebound analysis. I think rangebound analysis is incredibly important when fundamentally what a bull market is is a structure which has higher highs, okay, and higher lows. That is a bull market.

[00:04:16]A bare market is the opposite. A bare market is a structure which we can just go ahead and outline right now. Uh with lower highs here are the highs and they're each lower than the last one. Uh and also lower lows, right? So that's fundamental to what a bare market is.

[00:04:30]And hence, in order to flip out of a bare market into a bull market, we'd simply need to be breaking our most recent macro high, which is at $98,000.

[00:04:39]This is why rangebound analysis is so important. It is rarely the full final confirmation. We can look at indicators all we want. We can look at gorian channel. We can look at RSI. We can look at the 100 EMA. We will do so uh towards the end of this video here. But ultimately, it's ranges that matter.

[00:04:54]Ranges clearly cut up the price action in such simple ways. bring up the volume profile. Look at your chart. Look at these dips on the volume profile. I'm just going to draw lines at where these dips on the volume profile are. And they very clearly divide uh the Bitcoin price ranges. They clearly divide the ranges through which the chart bounces between.

[00:05:14]Now, it is true that Bitcoin is aggressively attacking the top of the range and actually breaking above it. Uh under some analysis, you can say it's breaking above it. I would probably challenge that to some degree. We can literally just redraw patterns over and over again. And every time you redraw them, this has been the case for weeks, right? This is why I don't trust patterns within this current price range. You can just redraw patterns. It could still be an ascending channel formation. Uh this also could have been the ascending channel formation that we broke out above, but it's gotten messy, right? So that suggests that that pattern wasn't actually as valid as as many people thought it was. So I'm not really focusing too much on patterns right now. I'm simply focusing on price ranges. If we're looking at the price range, we're either in a the weakest breakout ever, uh, or we're still at resistance. Let's just assume we're in a breakout, right? Let's just assume that we are above that $80,000 price range and we have re-entered this range right here. Okay, that's the best case scenario. That's what we've done on Bitcoin. Let's assume that's the case.

[00:06:10]If that is the case, is that actually a step in the right direction? Well, of course, it's a step in the right direction, but is it a consequential step? Right? And in order to answer that question, we need to look at prior bare markets. Has this happened before? Are we doing something different to what we have done in the past? And the answer is no. If we go back to 2018 bare market, right, one of the first major bare markets on Bitcoin other than 2014, we had a price range right here in the bare market. Let's go ahead and drop it in here. Here's a red line which identifies the top of the price range. There's the bottom of the price range. What did we do? We went into this range. We ranged for a bit. We saw a double bottom formation. We broke back above into the prior price range and we actually came all the way up to the prior price ranges high which is the equivalent this time of $98,000 and we didn't break it. We continued downwards in the bare market.

[00:07:03]Right? So that's the same thing uh in 2018 relative to this cycle. That is the same thing as us coming right up to $98,000 rejecting and then going downwards. and it was still bearish in 2018, which proves the point that $98,000 uh is rarely the be all end all for Bitcoin. But the fundamental point I'm trying to make here using reference to a price cycle is that we did break its price range. Uh in fact, we did it very decisively. We moved all the way up to the top of the preceding price range before rejecting downwards months later.

[00:07:35]So we can in fact break uh current price ranges within bare markets and it's not necessarily detrimental and it's not necessarily unexpected or abnormal. Same thing happened in 2022 to a slightly lesser extent, but it still happened.

[00:07:50]Okay? And it's actually very similar to what's happening right now. Here is the deadcap bounce of 2022, the one that basically tricked everyone that we were back in a bull market again except for us and this YouTube channel and maybe a few other YouTubers. Maybe uh we had this resistance zone, the top of the price range. Here was the bottom of the price range. We were lurking for a very long period of time in ascending channel structures. Very similar to what we're seeing right now. By the way, there's a lot of similarities here. We came up, we broke the range very weekly. We tested it for support. We worked around for about 10 days. Then we broke down cataclysmically and we entered uh a bearish phase again within the larger macro bear market. So, I guess the point of this video is just to highlight the fact that well, number one, which we did before we talked about Bitunix, in order for Bitcoin to actually have a chance of succeeding in claiming a bull market here and ending the 4ear cycle and going upwards above $100,000 again, basically we need to see the irrationalities in the S&P 500 continue massively uh for an extended period of time, which is something we can't predict. possible maybe uh unpredictable probably unlikely given the scale of this move and how revolutionary it's been. So the the bullish case at this point is relying on something that is unpredictable and probably unlikely. As for what's actually happened to support the bulls in the charts outside of theories in regards to what might happen with the S&P 500, the only thing that's happened is we've maybe broken above the current price range. Uh key word maybe there.

[00:09:20]But then even if we have broken above the current price range as we saw in 2018 and in 2022 that in itself wouldn't be unabnormal at all. In fact that would be expected to happen during a bare market as a dead cap bounce and kind of a big trap for the bulls. So at this point I I can kind of come to my conclusion in this video. I can confidently say that at this point for Bitcoin specifically nothing has happened that I would deem to be abnormal. And since nothing has happened that I would deem to be abnormal, I still believe in the status quo, which is the 4-year cycle with a bare market bottom in October 2026. Uh the base case scenario for that 4ear cycle bottom would be somewhere in the 32 to $36,000 range. But that's actually not relevant.

[00:10:03]What matters is the date cuz the cycle is based on dates. So October bottom in 2026 is the status quo. At this point, I don't see any abnormalities significant enough to drag me away from that theory.

[00:10:14]Uh, I'm keeping my eye on the S&P 500 is definitively dragging Bitcoin up in the short term. Uh, but I just don't know whether those those uh weird the weird stuff happening here can continue. I don't think it's possible to know cuz I think it's heavily related to unpredictable geopolitical decisions and events. We will see. That's all I can say. We're just going to have to wait and see. But as per the charts that I do understand and I do know what I'm talking about on, which is the Bitcoin charts, nothing here has happened that is abnormal. we look at something like the 100 exponential moving average which has held up this chart uh during bare markets historically before massive cataclysmic drops and that is something we're testing for resistance right now as we speak at the $82,000 level. we look at something for example uh outside of rangebound analysis like the weekly chart gorian channel we understand definitively and concisely and for a fact objectively that the center line of the gorian channel is a 100% proven method in determining whether we are in a bull market or a bare market okay moving through the center line triggers a bull market or bare market in the direction through which we moved through it right this has happened time and time again eight or nine separate data points on Bitcoin showing this to be the case.

[00:11:24]We are no near the center line. The center line actually sits at 98,000 right next to the top of the range we need to break to enter a bull market again. So, at this point, I'm still a believer that we're in a bare market.

[00:11:34]I'm still a believer in the status quo, which is the four-ear cycle. Yes, we're seeing some inconsistencies and abnormalities with the S&P, and we're just going to have to wait and see what happens there. But, Bitcoin itself is moving pretty normally. Obviously, I'll keep you updated. And if we start breaking up uh deep into 80,000s or into the low 90,000s, then we can start really taking uh these bullish arguments more seriously. But at this point, I just don't take them very seriously.

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