TOM LEE says "THERE IS A DAY OF RECKONING COMING"

本站添加: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Blue cloud traing through the night.

[00:00:44]Welcome back. We are mixed. Well, now we're higher as we head towards the close. Now that Nvidia earnings are out of the way, is the AI trade about to take its next leg higher? Let's ask Tom Lee. He's fund strats, head of research.

[00:00:57]Welcome back. So, so how do you assess this now? We've we've cleared the way, right? All the AI stuff's now out of the way. We're looking at yields. We're looking at oil. We're looking at the Middle East. But how do you feel about this market when you just heard Chris Harvey at the top of our show saying we're going to have an everything rally that's going to take us past 8,000 by the end of the year?

[00:01:18]>> Yeah, Scott. Um, yeah, I I think the market is pretty healthy. Um it showed resilience in the face of higher oil, higher yields. But I also think the US is pretty unique because we do have a structural driver for the economy which is not only is the US the producer of AI but we are also uh relatively energy independent and that's been exposed by this war and the consumer is in pretty good shape. So I mean I I think there is a pretty good runway. So, I'd agree with the idea that stocks compared to the start of this year have more upside into year end. We've got a few things we have to work through as we get later through the year, but I think for now the fundamentals are healthy and that's supported by earnings.

[00:02:00]>> I don't know. I don't know what shape the consumers in to be honest with you.

[00:02:03]I mean, I understand the K-shaped economy. Obviously top of the K is better than the bottom of the K in terms of the durability to keep spending. But you listen to Walmart which was pretty cautious and you're like what is the real state of the consumer? And if oil prices remain elevated for too long is that the thing that wrecks the story?

[00:02:24]>> Uh Scott, yeah it is in this in a way it is case shape because if I had to say okay what are the things that are sort of ballots and things moving the consumer? Of course, we know that it's higher gasoline, higher food, and of course, there's going to be a shortage of some petroleum products, but on the other end of that spectrum is, you know, the wealth that's going to be created by the IPO, SpaceX, Open AI, etc. I mean, that's several trillion dollars worth.

[00:02:50]And as we know, there's like a marginal propensity to consume from the wealth effect. So I think the consumer is getting a tailwind later this year but a lot of it is if for those who own equity >> I mean a tailwind from the from owning the IPOs.

[00:03:05]>> Well the it's actually the private investors as we know SpaceX was probably seated at you know $50 million. It probably raised you know tens of billions over the last uh decade but now it's going to have a net worth valuation of around 1.7 trillion. So that that's actually now going to be monetized uh for the LPS of the funds that invested in SpaceX. So they're, you know, several trillion dollars is is quite a lot of stimulus to the economy.

[00:03:34]>> Wow. Okay. Um Hampton's real estate market. Watch out. Uh AI trade, how how do you feel about it after Nvidia?

[00:03:44]Uh I mean a company with the the size of revenue as Nvidia growing at at 80% um I think shows that there is still uh you know unrelenting demand for for the product Nvidia sells and then we know that those who are starting to use AI are actually noticing of a gain of function on productivity. You know Ken Griffin really stated it well when he says he he could see it's replacing a lot of analysts. So to me, I think not only are the users of AI benefiting, but there's still a shortage of those who are supplying the equipment.

[00:04:18]>> But aren't you still calling for a pullback in stocks and something meaningful? Like the one we had already didn't really qualify, if you will, under what you were thinking could happen, right?

[00:04:31]>> That's right, Scott. I think we had uh like what Edini would call a rolling bare market and things like mag 7 and of course last year in energy but in software etc. But I think later this year the market is going to confront a few things you know one of course is just your typical midterm seasonality you know the uncertainty into that. The second is that there is a a a day of reckoning coming because the inventory of petroleum products is short and not being alleviated anytime soon.

[00:05:01]And the third is uh we probably have some concerns later as the as these IPOs come SpaceX open AI etc that there's a lockup expiration later. So I I think that's a supply overhang. So I think that dynamic comes to play later this year. But in the meantime I think investors are focusing on AI fundamentals and you know there's a real shortage and and stocks that are working are the ones that are selling something that's scarce.

[00:05:25]>> Tom I want to make sure I heard you right. Are you calling for a rolling bare market in mag seven names? Cuz is that what you're looking for? You look for these stocks to become weaker at some point and dramatically so at some point this year. Is that is that what I heard you say?

[00:05:42]>> Oh, to clarify, I think that I think we've already had a bare market in Mag 7 and software. I think there's going to be a bare market in other stocks later this year. Yes. Um but I think it's going to spare the mag 7 and software.

[00:05:56]So, it's going to be names that either got lofty or are going to be affected by the fact that there is a lot of supply of new stock later this year or the companies that are going to get hit by the shortage in petroleum products. So, I think there's reasons that we could have headwinds later this year.

[00:06:13]>> Are you talking about like semiconductor stocks?

[00:06:18]>> Yeah, semis may become a bubble. They're they to me they don't seem like a bubble yet. you know, when Nvidia is trading at 19 times earnings, I think it's still a good riskreward. Um, but I think that there are parts of that ecosystem that have become quite expensive.

[00:06:35]>> And you think that those stocks could could go down >> 20%.

[00:06:42]>> Later this year? Yes. You know, I mean, it's uh it would be healthy anyways. Um, you know, a 10% draw down happens every year. I I think what we found is investors have become so comfortable with stocks going up that even a 5% draw down turns sentiment negative. So I think there's easily a possibility that names that are widely owned sometime later this year >> are going to have a draw down that triggers a bit of a a margin liquidation and that's why we might have a bigger correction. I I got to let you go, but remind our viewers what your endofear target is for the S&P.

[00:07:19]>> We expect the S&P to be at least 7,700 by year end. I I think that number seems low given the resilience of markets in the face of high oil. So I think 7,700 is is the low end.

[00:07:32]>> Oh, okay. All right. We'll talk to you soon, Tom. Thanks.

[00:07:35]>> Thanks, Tom.

[00:07:36]>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Blue Cloud Trading. I'm George. It is Friday and it's 11:30 a.m. I typically don't do videos this early, but uh I am planning on taking a little uh time off this weekend. So, I thought I would put this out for you folks. Tom Lee was on Closing Bell yesterday, and so I thought I'd shared some of that uh that clip there with you and we could discuss some of the stocks and ETFs, including the Tom Lee ETF, the GRNY.

[00:08:05]We're going to look into that. I'm going to look at the charts on that specific stock. So, let me just show you guys what I'm talking about. Um, we will look at GRNY. That's Funstrat Granny's shot US large cap ETF. We're going to take a look at BMNR. So, Tom Lee was also appointed chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies on June 30th. We're going to look at that. We'll take a look at how the indices are looking this morning here at 11:30 1 a.m. um and some of the MAX 7s. We will also take a look at some member requests ACMR, IWB and IWR. We'll look at the technicals and all that. So, let's first start off by taking a quick look at the indices. As you can see that they they are all up today, right? So, the Dow Jones, it gapped up and has continued to move up, which is nice.

[00:08:51]It's up 87% right now. Uh the NASDAQ also gapped up, dropped a little bit, and then recovered, right? Okay, we had this nice bullish uh hammer candle right here and then it continued up. It's up 71%. The S&P 500 also gapped up. It hasn't uh taken out the high of the day yet, which was this early this morning.

[00:09:11]It's up just 69%.

[00:09:14]Russell 2000, this one gapped up and it's kind of building a little bit of a symmetrical triangle pattern here. So, we'll see what how that plays out. Um and let's take a look at the sectors.

[00:09:25]Actually, let's take a look at the heat map. So, we can see the individual stocks within the S&P 500. You can see Apple is up 1.93%, Tesla's up 2.55. A lot of the semiconductor stocks are actually up. Now, Tom Lee, interestingly enough, in this video that we just saw, those clips u mentioned how he thinks that the the semis uh might be be, you know, coming into a bubble and we might even see a drop of 20% later this year in the semiconductor space, which is very interesting. uh but he still expects the S&P 500 to reach 7700.

[00:09:58]Uh so that is also kind of interesting.

[00:10:01]If you look here at the U S&P 500 right now, you know, we're at a level of 70 almost 7,500 here. So he does still expect the S&P 500 to move up, but there will be stocks that will be affected by gas prices potentially and those stocks could also see uh a big draw down. So typically Tomley is more bullish but not on those specific areas. So just keep that in mind. Um let's take a look here. So the consumer defensives like Walmart and Costco, they're down, but the majority of the stocks here doing pretty well, including the some a lot of software stocks like Oracle, ticker symbol KLAC. Crowd Strike is up again. And it is up. Dell is up 15.13%.

[00:10:43]Wow, that's a huge jump for Dell.

[00:10:47]Let's And the healthcare stocks seem to be mostly doing well except for Fizer and Bristol Meyers there. Utilities not so great. Real estate not so much.

[00:10:55]Energy is kind of mixed. You can see some of the refining and marketing stocks are doing okay like VLOO, MPC, VLOO, I'm sorry, PSX, those are doing okay. Caterpillar is up. VRT is up. So, and if we look at the groups here for the day, technology is in fact the uh the strongest performer. Okay. up 1.19% followed by industrials, healthcare, and then energy, real estate are the and consumer defenses are the weaker uh of the bunch today. For the week, it's it's been utilities the the top performer, followed by healthcare and real estate, and then technology, which is interesting.

[00:11:32]So, is there a sector rotation happening? Possibly. I'm going to go over uh the sectors in the membersonly video that I do each weekend. I do a very thorough analysis of all the sectors and um I use TC2000 to to accomplish that. And then I what I do is I break it down even further. I'll look at all the industries, the strongest industries within each sector. And then from there, I'll break it down even further to find the strongest stocks that are looking like they are ready to take off and pop. And so I share those usually over 20 stock ideas for the upcoming week. If you guys are interested in seeing that video. You wouldn't need to become a member, uh, just click on the join button on my page here on my YouTube channel, BlueCloud Trading. Click on this join button to get access to not just this weekend's video, but you can go back and see how my uh, portfolio has done over time as well as the stocks and everything that I've um, recommended. And over here, for example, you'll have um, if you if you haven't subscribed to my channel, it's free to do that. Help me reach 30,000.

[00:12:38]We're almost at 30,000 subscribers, which is amazing. I want to thank you guys. Uh on my Twitter page, I'm trying to reach uh let me show you guys my Twitter page real quick, too, while we're here.

[00:12:49]Oops.

[00:12:52]Here, we're about to hit uh we're getting closer and closer to a thousand followers. So, just 60 of you guys following me on Twitter can help me accomplish that goal, and I do appreciate you guys. There's a lot of stuff here, like I do make posts every day. Um, and then I also under the highlights segment here and under this tab if you scroll down you'll find this candle pattern reference sheet which is free and you'll also find this um stock patterns cheat sheet. So definitely consider that. This is very useful if you want to you know get a better understanding about Japanese candlesticks. Uh one of the technical things that I look for um in identifying strength and weakness. Okay. So let's go ahead and get started. We're going to look at the SPY first and then we'll get into the rest of these. So, S&P 500, the SPY ETF. Let's move this to the side here. You can see it's up currently 67%.

[00:13:44]It's 11:36 a.m. You can see the timer right there. We're doing this live. Uh here's the weekly chart. Still moving in a nice uptrend here. As you can see on the daily chart, you'll notice this candle right here. This candle was from Thursday, May 14th. We haven't surpassed that level. It's uh a level of 74953.

[00:14:05]Okay. Uh so that's something that you want to watch out for and wait for that breakout because we are at a resistance level. Uh the Q's the QQQ ETF also seems to be stumbling here a little bit as it has not broken above this high yet of 72203.

[00:14:21]So there is a little bit of hesitation.

[00:14:23]We're at 72110.

[00:14:25]Right? You can see that little what's got what we're experiencing here is um a level of consolidation where price is tightly stuck in the range and um you know you want to look and wait for that in my opinion that breakout.

[00:14:39]The Dow Jones on the other hand interestingly enough was up82%. This indeed broke through this very long consolidation area. Okay. So multiple weeks now we've been stuck in this range. the fact that we broke, not only broke, but we gapped up above 50530.

[00:14:55]Now, that level is a weekly level. It goes all the way back to April. All right, you'd have to go back to April 20 of 2026 here, and we've broken through that level. That's really important. U if you look at the Dow Jones, you'll notice that we've um this is an inverse type uh head and shoulders pattern.

[00:15:14]Here's the head, shoulder, second shoulder, and the fact that we broke this, which is I guess you could call that the neckline of the uh inverse head and shoulders pattern. That's very bullish, guys. Let me show you guys that pattern here on this p on this um stock pattern cheat sheet.

[00:15:32]So, the inverse head and shoulders, let me just show you that. It's right here.

[00:15:36]It's this one. I'm sorry, wrong, wrong one. This one. That's the one at the top. Inverse head and shoulders. It's when you have the head here, shoulder, shoulder, and then it breaks through that neckline here at the top. That is the bullish variant. This is the bearish variant here. Okay, that's when you have the head on the top, shoulder, and shoulder. So, we are seeing the Dow um breaking out. I think this is really really important uh day Friday uh May 22nd. Will it close above 50530 though? That's a different story because typically you want to wait until closer to the end of the day to make sure that that price is in fact going to remain above 50530.

[00:16:18]You know, we could see some bad news come out in the market and it could certainly drop right back under 50530 by the end of the day and that would be a reversal type candle that forms. All right. So, we we're not seeing that though. I'm seeing momentum here. I'm seeing the uh positive DI9 moving up, the negative DI moving down. That's very positive.

[00:16:38]And the indicator I'm using is called the Ichimoku indicator. Um, we essentially want to see price above these two moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. The green line is the nine period, the midpoint of the last nine periods, and the red line is the midpoint of the last 26. This white line is the current price projected 26 periods ago. And that what we're looking for here is to see that white line above the candles 26 periods ago. If that's above, that's bullish. Okay. All right.

[00:17:03]All right, let's go to the next um ETF, IWM, which you know is a representation of the Russell 2000. And you can see here it is up86%. It's actually uh up quite nicely here, gapped up and is continuing, but it is still under a level of resistance, the 28758.

[00:17:22]Okay, so that's an an area that it needs to break through in my opinion.

[00:17:27]The VIX is down 78% today. That's a good sign. The volatility is coming out of the market.

[00:17:33]Not as much fear in the markets. Euro stocks 50 uh down.13% right now on the daily chart, but it's above holding above the cloud on the daily chart.

[00:17:42]Let's take a look at the weekly. On the weekly chart, you can see here the faster moving average is under the slower one. That's a bearish signal right there. So, it's we don't have everything um you know in order here on the weekly, but the daily looks relatively bullish overall. Let's see if it can continue. The only negative is of course is this red um type candle which is a reversal type candle. It could pull back on Monday next week. All right. So again, that's uh you'd find that under the candlesticks. You go over here and you look under bearish single candle patterns. There's the bearish spinning top candle.

[00:18:22]All right, let's get back to uh our analysis here now. Oh uh so that's FEZ.

[00:18:28]That's the Euro stocks 50. Let's take a look at gold real quick. Gold is still under the Ichimoku cloud. Seems to be hovering in this area. It hasn't really um dropped precipitously. It's only down.5%.

[00:18:41]Uh holding up above these lows over here. Uh silver under the cloud, but also just kind of nothing really major happening. Down 1.38%.

[00:18:51]Oil K, that one dropped um on Thursday, and here it is again today. Seems to be stalling at this area. uh down 26%.

[00:19:02]Bitcoin is under the two moving averages but above the cloud. All right. On the daily, if you look at the weekly chart, it's very bearish.

[00:19:10]What about Ethereum, which is uh it's one of the um coins that uh Tomley has a huge investment in. That's dropping 1.18%. It got under the nine period, the midpoint, the last nine periods here.

[00:19:25]It's more likely to continue dropping.

[00:19:27]Um, I also don't like what I'm seeing with the directional movement index.

[00:19:30]You'll see the red line is moving up, the green line is moving down, and the ADX is stabilizing. If that starts moving up, that means we're going to see more um, and if we start seeing more volume, it could certainly um, it's going to at least come down and try to retest this uh, low, these lows down here, which are around uh, 1707.

[00:19:50]Yeah, 1707 is the low.

[00:19:54]copper miners ETF, the COPX. How's that looking? It is holding up on the weekly chart. Okay, so that's good that it seems to be holding right above the moving averages. It looks pretty bullish overall. On the daily chart, we're under the two moving averages. So, we don't we're getting a conflict in both time frames. And if you want a higher probability trade, you want both time frames to give you the same story. Let's look at Amazon.

[00:20:19]Uh I drew this trend line here. Let me see when did I draw that? true May 20th a couple of days ago and I said if we see price break above this level it's a higher probability it's going to move up. It did break up above it yesterday on Thursday and here it is today up 21%.

[00:20:36]Um I expect Amazon to move up. I like the fact that it's um looking bullish here on the daily and if you look at the weekly chart also very strong. So we had the pullback on the weekly chart after the breakout of 25860. this prior high move price moved up, dropped, found support, and now we're creating a nice hammer, bullish candle. So, there's a higher probability. Next week, we'll see Amazon moving up. I like Amazon. Um Tesla, okay, the moving averages are in not the correct order in the weekly. Tenken, the green line, the nine period is under the the slower one. So, that's negative on the daily chart.

[00:21:13]Uh we do have price breaking above the tenkinson. It's up 2.03%.

[00:21:18]So the daily looks quite bullish. All right, we have a series of higher highs, higher lows. We're starting to develop a nice um basically upward channel with Tesla on this time frame, but the weekly is not confirming it. So you'll have to determine if that's something you're okay with taking that risk. Uh Meta Platforms, on the other hand, is kind of stuck in a rut inside this cloud here and under it. I'd stay out of test I'm sorry Meta because it's under the 200 day moving average that dotted yellow line. Microsoft is still under the 200 day moving average but trying to you know stay above the moving averages here on the daily. The weekly chart it's under the cloud. So no on Microsoft.

[00:21:59]Netflix is also under the cloud still down 0.58%.

[00:22:03]Uh here's the daily chart still also under the daily. I'd stay out of Netflix for now. Mags is the Magnificent 7 ETF.

[00:22:09]That one is popping up 042% above the Tenken today. But on the weekly chart, the moving averages have merged, meaning there's not really a clear direction here on the weekly. We don't have the the faster moving average above the slower one, which is what we typically want. When we see that crossover take place, it tends to lead to a higher um higher uh prices. Okay.

[00:22:34]All right. And then let's take a look at some of the CNBC stocks like SMH. Well, they didn't discuss well they did discuss semiconductors. So, we're going to look at this one weekly chart. Here it is up 2.18%. Looks quite bullish still on daily chart also looking quite bullish. Uh tenants is about kunen. I like what I'm seeing overall. Now, there is a level of resistance now uh with SMH that we have to address and that let's take a look at the find out the high there. 58104 58117.

[00:23:12]So 58117 would be the um would be the high 5817 based on this candle.

[00:23:24]Whoops. Right there.

[00:23:27]And let's go ahead and fix that. We're throwing in a resistance level.

[00:23:35]As you can see, we're currently at 58036. We're right under it. So, what does that mean? It just means you're at a level of resistance. Price is hitting its head at these levels here. And so, if we get the breakout, there's a higher probability that price will move up.

[00:23:52]Okay, let's take a look at BMR. Now, this is Bitmine Immersion Technologies.

[00:23:57]Um remember that uh Tom Lee was appointed chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies on June 30th of 2025 pivoted to focus on building an Ethereum ccentric treasury aiming to become the Micro Strategy of Ethereum. Okay. So where Micro Strategy is mostly focused on Bitcoin, this particular um group here stock is under is mostly focused on Ethereum and it's down 1.12%. Here's the weekly chart.

[00:24:31]It is currently still if if we zoom in a little bit, it's it's in between the two moving averages, the Tenken and the 200 day. Uh it doesn't look particularly bullish here. You can see that the this is what you don't want to see with the directional movement index. The red line moving up, the green line moving down, and the ADX moving up. That that is negative, guys. Okay? So, keep that in mind with BMR. Now is not the time to to add positions in this. You want to wait it out. Uh daily chart also under the cloud. You can see the long consolidation that's been taking place here. So, at least it's been holding, you know, above the low here of this level. Um, but if it breaks under that, expect it to to continue to the downside. Okay.

[00:25:17]So, GRNY, that's the Funstrap Granny Shots US large cap ETF, also um run by uh Tom Lee. You can see here that on the daily chart, three days in a row, we're above the 9 period, the green line. And on the weekly chart, we look, it looks relatively bullish, except for the fact that the moving averages here are at the same level. they've merged. So, it just me means that we're we're consolidating essentially right now. We don't have a clear clear 100% clear direction as these are still moving down. Um and and oh yeah, three more stocks we're going to look at. ACMR, this is one of our members requests. ACM Research Inc., it's a technology sector, semiconductor equipment and materials industry uh stock. This one here on the weekly chart has broken through this high. That is very bullish. Um, it has had a nice run. ADX is still moving up. It's up 5.77% today. Daily chart also looking very bullish here. Broke through this prior high that happened today. I'm sorry, take that back. Let me let me get the correct uh dollar amount right there.

[00:26:31]7165 the high of this candle.

[00:26:36]Let's see. Did we break above it yesterday? Yes, 70. It um we broke above it but we closed under it. So it was at 7159 at the close. On this day it was at 7160. It also closed under right that prior high. And let me circle that.

[00:26:54]And this is going to be more of a weekly level because of the you can see how many days have gone by here. I'm going to switch this to a light blue color to signify weekly resistance. And so this is important. It looks like we're going to see a continuation. Now, I'm not seeing uh you know crazy amount of volume here because you see the volume has been declining. All right. As price has been moving up and generally I prefer to see that moving up. But when when you see a breakout in this type of candle which is very uh bullish it's very strong strong candle. I think there's a higher probability it's going to remain above 7165 and you can use this as a support level. Now once price breaks through a level of resistance it becomes a support level. All right and let's look at IWB. This is the eyeshares Russell 1000 index fund ETF.

[00:27:45]That's looking pretty good here on the daily chart. Breaking above yesterday and the day I'm sorry the day before on Wednesday May 20th. It broke above the tenins and still continue to move up 68% today. So the daily chart looks perfect.

[00:27:57]Weekly chart also very good. However, the the moving averages here on the weekly are still converged.

[00:28:06]All right, they they basically converged over here. You can see they've stayed at the same exact level, meaning it's not as bullish as I'd like to see. All right, typically again, you want to see that green line above the red line. Um what about IWR on the weekly chart? Tenkensson is above Keeon. So the green line is above um but it is it seems to be also consolidating here. You can see that it's been stuck here for multiple weeks now. Six weeks in a row in this range. And if you look at the daily whoops, you can see that even more clearly, right?

[00:28:41]I think that it would make sense to uh wait for a clearance above this high here of 10643. It's a daily level.

[00:28:49]And we're we're relatively close. Let's see how far are we. We're about uh 61% away. So, that's uh what I would be watching. And guys, that is going to do it for this video. Hope you all have a great weekend. Remember, if you want to see the membersonly video, consider becoming a member. To do that, all you need to do is go to my page here, BlueCloud Trading, click the join button. All right. Once you click on that join button, there will be three tabs to select from. In order to see the videos, you do need to either select BlueCloud Trader and you'll get access to that that video that I'll be doing uh this weekend uh and future weekend videos. Right? If you want to get daily updates on my trades, become a BlueCloud legend, you need to select this and then hit join.

[00:29:33]All right. Under BlueCloud supporter, you can request it's it's a promote right now. 100% off for your first month membership. And basically, you can request a stock or ETF be analyzed on an upcoming video just like the one I just like those three stocks I just did.

[00:29:51]Okay, guys. Thanks for watching. Have a great weekend. I will catch you all in the next one.

[00:30:04]The ichimoku guiding light.

[00:30:11]Blue cloud traing through the night.

[00:30:33]would