Tropical system to bring rain and breezy winds to the Baton Rouge area mid-week

[00:00:03]Tracking the tropics, sponsored by Jerry Lane Buick GMC.

[00:00:08]>> Good afternoon, everyone. I'm meteorologist Ashley Renee, and here's another look at the tropics. So, looking at Tropical Depression 2, it still has wind speeds of 35 mph. Now, for the last few hours, it has just or really over the last day, it's just been sitting in the northeastern Gulf. Now, it has been slowly moving to the northwest at 3 mph, but his movements has hardly changed at all within the last 24 hours. But, as of this time, still seeing wind speeds of 35 mph. The projected track has also not adjusted. It is still expected to move across the Gulf Coast, mainly the Louisiana coastline, by the time we reach the middle of this week. So, between today and about tomorrow night, still going to be moving on that west and northwestward track, and then eventually reaching the Louisiana coast by early Wednesday morning. This will likely be south of the New Orleans metro area, continuing to move west and well to the south of Baton Rouge, and stay still staying west on that westward track into Lake Charles, and then reaching the Texas coastline by early Saturday morning. Now, this system has been dealing with a lot of dry air over the last day or two. So, this is why we are still not seeing a healthy-looking system this morning. Now, where you're seeing the lightning strikes, of course, indicates where there is thunderstorm activity out over the Gulf, which is well to the south of the Louisiana coast, the Mississippi and Alabama coast, and south of the Florida coast as well. And looking at water vapor imagery, we can see how some of that drier air is still pushing its way into the system. So, again, the center, although it still doesn't have a healthy, well-defined center, is still closer to the coastline, the Gulf coastline, while we are still seeing all the shower and thunderstorm activity out over the Gulf. That is where you're seeing those shades of greens and also whites indicating higher moisture content, which lets us know that is where the rainfall and the thunderstorm activity is located. But now looking at the wind shear for the future track. So the legend that we have on our map, the reds and oranges indicate higher amounts of wind shear, while the greens and the yellows indicate a lower amounts of wind shear activity. And when we talk about these tropical systems, we need wind shear in place to help break those systems apart. And it's already been impacting this system for the last day or two, which is why it hasn't had a good looking healthy structure. So wind shear is when you have change in wind speeds and or direction with height higher up in the atmosphere. So again, just kind of cutting off that well defined structure that tropical systems need to better form into tropical storms or hurricanes. So this is why when we've looked at tropical depression on satellite imagery since this morning and yesterday and earlier in the weekend, it just hasn't looked well put together.

[00:02:54]But of course that's some some good news for us because we just like for things to stay quiet for our area. But now taking a look another look at what's happening on satellite imagery. So there have been a few stronger thunderstorms moving over the Florida panhandle within the last couple of hours.

[00:03:10]Now earlier this morning, a lot of the shower and thunderstorm activity has been offshore, but there's been a gradual increase in onshore activity over Tallahassee, near Pensacola. And where you're seeing those boxes that are beige boxes that indicates where special weather statements were in place about an hour or two ago, which again indicates stronger thunderstorm activity. That's normally where you have thunderstorms that have wind speeds at least 30 to 40 miles per hour, sometimes slightly higher than that. And there's also some thunderstorms that's over Tampa at this time, Bradenton, Florida Florida and also just offshore. So maybe some of you have plans to visit the Florida beaches for today, but this of course is not the best day do it. While a lot of the activity still offshore, thunderstorm activity is increasing over the Florida Panhandle now, and we're still going to see this on and off activity for the rest of our Monday and our Tuesday. But again, that's concentrated towards the Florida Panhandle and going to be easing its way more so into South Georgia and also South Alabama, including the coastline.

[00:04:13]We still have no immediate concerns right here across the Louisiana coast.

[00:04:18]But the 10:00 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center has extended the tropical storm watch to the Southeast Louisiana coast. This is mainly south of New Orleans and to the east. So this includes parts of Plaquemines Parish, St. Bernard Parish, the southern half of St. Tammany, and this stretches eastward into Gulfport, and also all across the Mississippi coast, Alabama coast, and down towards about Panama City. So just including the Florida Panhandle, that's where our tropical storm watch is in place. Now, when we have a tropical storm that means tropical storm force conditions are likely within at least the next 36 hours. So the wind speeds that you have for tropical storms are about 39 to about 73 mph. And of course, once you get to that 74- mph mark, that means that we now have a category one hurricane. But that's still not looking favorable with this system, which again is good news. All because of that drier air and wind shear that is still interacting with tropical depression two, which is why we have not seen it being upgraded just yet to tropical storm Bertha. The last few updates from the National Hurricane Center and just checking out satellite imagery for at least the last 12 hours shows this system still not being well put together.

[00:05:33]But again, that is a look at the tropical storm watch and the tropical storm warning, which is the blue color that you're seeing. That is mainly south of the Florida Panhandle. Now, here's the storm surge. Now, this stretches from parts of the Southeast Louisiana coastline and eastward into the Florida coast. We are looking at storm surge of about 1 to 3 ft. This will be along the coast of Terrebonne, Lafourche Parish, lower part of Plaquemines, and then possibly up to about 3 to 6 ft near St. Tammany, Mississippi coast, Alabama coast, and then the storm surge kind of falls off again to that 1 to 3-ft window along the Florida coastline. But again, for that storm surge, if you had beach plans for today, it would just be best to maybe hold off on that until about the middle to the end of the week as that system continues to work its way west westward because there are rip current risks that are in place for the Alabama coast and Florida coast for today and continuing through about tomorrow and Wednesday.

[00:06:33]So, now here's a look at the atmospheric moisture. So, of course, with this system, although it's not a healthy, well-put-together system, it is still going to increase some moisture for our area. So, this is going to continue and pick up more so by about Tuesday into Wednesday and also Thursday. When we have that increasing moisture, that means we're looking at higher rain chances to continue. But because of the placement of the system, it still looks like the good bulk of that will remain offshore. So, looking at the future track, here's our in-house Baron model.

[00:07:04]This is what showing for Wednesday and it's hardly showing anything at all. You can still see the center of the system, that area of low pressure, while a lot of that rain remains offshore. But again, our in-house Baron model hardly picks up on anything while the Euro model shows a little bit more activity, but again, it is keeping that offshore.

[00:07:24]So, because of the lopsidedness of the system and how sloppy it is in nature, it still looks like even as it continues moving westward, even with the small change in its track, whether it moves a little bit more to the north inland or stays a little bit more offshore, it still keeps a lot of that activity south of the center, which means out over the Gulf while those farther inland here in the greater Baton Rouge area will have minimal impacts at best for the middle of this week. So, now looking at the estimated rainfall amounts over the next 7 days, we are still seeing about 2 to 4 in for the Bayou Parishes and down towards the coast. Now, although this is over a span of the next 7 days, we're still looking at that to mainly take place around the middle of the week as that system so grazes by along the Louisiana coastline. But, here that is on the estimated rainfall amounts you're seeing about 2 to 4 in that's the orange and yellows colors down towards Terrebonne and Lafourche Parish and just right along the Louisiana coastline. And then farther inland here in the greater Baton Rouge area, that's mainly south of I-10 when we're looking at that. That includes St. Mary Parish, parts of Iberia, St. Martin, Assumption Parish down towards the coast where they could receive at least 2 to in of rain and slightly higher amounts for the coast.

[00:08:42]And that's also where that flooding risk is in place mainly in the coastal spots.

[00:08:47]Terrebonne, Lafourche, Plaquemines, that is what we're looking at.

[00:08:52]While here across I-10 and north into our southwest Mississippi counties, at best we may see up to half of an inch of rain to towards an inch over the next 7 days. Although we do have rain chances that will continue for the end of the week after that system has already passed. Again, the greatest possibility will be around the middle of the week as it is going by. So, here are the wind gusts that we're looking at across the Gulf Coast. Where you're seeing the shades of blues and lighter blues, that's just indicates about that 10 to 19 mph wind gust range for Wednesday.

[00:09:23]But, where you should see the green and darker green colors, that's about 20 to close to 30 mph winds that we could see across southeast Louisiana and parts of south Mississippi by Wednesday evening.

[00:09:36]Now, these winds are going to continue into Thursday. Overnight, they kind of slow down a tad bit, then winds gusts increase in speed again to about that 20 to 25 mph range here in the greater Baton Rouge area once we get to Thursday around lunchtime, Thursday afternoon, and then we'll see those wind speeds starting to slow down again as we head to Thursday evening. Now, here's a closer look at that for our Wednesday right here in in Baton Rouge, Gonzales, Plaquemine, Denham Springs, wind speeds increasing to about 10 to 15 mph, and that's mainly where the wind speeds are going to be on Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Then going into Thursday, still looking at those wind speeds to stay around that 10 to 20 mph range, but the wind gusts will still get up to about 20 to 25 mph. This is what we're seeing for our Wednesday and Thursday. So, overall, the main takeaway from this is although Tropical Depression Two is still not organized this morning and still likely not going to get better organized because of the wind shear and drier air that is dealing with, at best, we may just have a few showers on Wednesday, on Thursday, and some breezy winds to deal with. And because again of while the most most of the activity will be concentrated offshore, there's still even a better chance that part of the Baton Rouge area, likely the northernmost section around that Florida around that Louisiana-Mississippi border, that they would just end up not really having any rain at all on Wednesday. So, this is something that we still have to keep a close eye on just because of the uncertainty with how the system is structured for this current moment, but for the middle of the week, what you can expect is just a few showers around and those winds starting to gust up to that 20 to 25 mph range.

[00:11:16]But, I'll take one more look at the track. So, again, Tropical Depression Two still has wind speeds of 35 mph this morning.

[00:11:25]We may see it reaching 50 mph at maximum over the next couple of days as it continues its track westward. Then of course, once the center of that system makes its way onshore to the Louisiana coastline by early Wednesday morning and continuing across the coast for the rest of Wednesday and Thursday, that land interaction will, of course, help it to weaken more so. So, then we'll start to see those wind speeds slowing back down to about 40 mph as it's going across the coast and then weakening to about 35 mph by early Friday morning and still weakening even further to 30 mph once it gets to the Texas coastline early Saturday morning. So, again, Tropical Depression 2 is still a tropical depression as of this time. Its chances of it strengthening into Tropical Storm Bertha before today ends is still not looking too favorable, but the only thing that could help it is if we're dealing with less wind shear and less drier air, but that has been the main issue it has faced over the last couple of days and that's what it's still going to be dealing with as we continue to see how it is being it how that drier air is still being pulled into the system even at this time. So, if you were wondering about a beach trip this week or later this week, again, today and tomorrow aren't the best days to be on the Florida and Alabama coast. Later this week, rain chances will still continue, but the system will be out of the way. And if you maybe want to go fishing on the Louisiana coastline later later this week, again, you'll have to just watch out for minor coastal flooding down by Terrebonne, Morgan City, Lafourche Parish, and also those breezy gusty winds, which for them could get up to about 35 to possibly 40 mph while farther inland our wind speeds will likely just stay within that 20 to 25 mph range. Again, any possible tropical impacts that we're looking at will mainly stay confined to I-10, the bayou parishes, and down towards the coast.

[00:13:17]But, for the latter half of this week, we'll still have enough moisture in place dealing with those usual summertime pop-up storms that we have, so that's why we still have minimal rain chances for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. But, the two days that we're still just eyeing for possible tropical impacts here inland will be Wednesday and Thursday. But, again, you do not have to panic. You do not have to feel stressed out about this system because, again, still doesn't look to be a big concern for us here in the Baton Rouge area. Even for those who are down along the Louisiana coastline, this will still be something to not stress over. There may be a little bit of coastal flooding and, of course, it's still not news that anyone wants to hear, but this is still what we're looking at at best. So, we may not even see a tropical storm forming out of this, so at least that's a plus sign from what we have been showing you and how how tropical depression two has been playing out over the last day last day or two. But, for today and tomorrow, again, here in the Baton Rouge area, what we mainly have to deal with is the heat. So, remember to protect yourselves if you're going to be spending a lot of time outside. The highs will be in the upper 90s, heat index values near 110. Now, if we are able to see a decent amount of a few showers around on Wednesday, that could keep our temperatures just a few degrees cooler. Of course, not a big cool down, but something to help us out a bit with a little bit more rain around and some breezy winds for Wednesday and also Thursday. But, we will have more updates posted on our website and, of course, stay tuned to our forecast on air tonight and also tomorrow morning.