Hurricane Season and Climate Outlook with Sabu!⛱️🌧️

Added: 2026-06-03

[00:00:01]Hi guys, I have the 2026 hurricane season forecast for you. Some people may not ask me this, so we want to do this special special video for you to explain what we expect for the 2026 hurricane season.

[00:00:13]First off, let's talk about the area that we're making this prediction for.

[00:00:17]This Atlantic main development region, but a small subsection of that, which is this red boxes here and Barbados right here.

[00:00:25]And so this is a prediction for this area to our east. We're not concerned about the entire Atlantic, guys. We're talking about close to home.

[00:00:32]So 1991-2020 averages, on average, we get around five tropical storms this area, two of which become a hurricane, and one of those two become a major hurricane.

[00:00:44]Our predictions for 2026 is five to seven tropical storms, of which two to three become a hurricane, and of those two to three, one to two become a major hurricane. Those numbers start sounding a little confusing, right?

[00:00:57]Simply, we try to nail it down to a single number, 6-2-1. In other words, six storms, two of which will become a hurricane, and one of those two will become a major hurricane.

[00:01:09]Guys, this does not add up 6-2-1, so it's not nine.

[00:01:12]It's six tropical storms, two of those six become a hurricane, and one of those two become major.

[00:01:19]There's only six cyclones altogether.

[00:01:23]Now, rainfall look, from June to October, uh climatologists and scientists are predicting below to near average rainfall uh from June all the way down to October.

[00:01:36]This does not mean that you will not get or you cannot get real heavy intense rainfall event on a particular day or more than one day, which can actually overshoot these predictions very easily.

[00:01:48]But in general, outside of those what we call anomaly days or out of the out of the whack or out of the blue days, it's generally going to be below average or near average.

[00:02:00]That means it's going to have an impact on the drought warnings and alerts that we've been issuing.

[00:02:06]But first, I want to clear here on two definitions to help you understand this table a little more before we talk about it.

[00:02:13]Agricultural drought warning, hydrological drought warning.

[00:02:17]What are they?

[00:02:19]An agricultural drought warning is a heads-up that the soil is drying out to the point where it the great threatens vegetation. We've been seeing that already. A lot of places been really brown, very dry.

[00:02:32]A hydrological drought warning is an alert advising that water levels in underground aquifers are forecast to drop or have dropped below normal levels.

[00:02:42]Now, this table above is not been made by Met Office alone.

[00:02:45]It's in conjunction with Water Authority and Ministry of Agriculture.

[00:02:48]And so, it gives you forecast for agricultural and hydrological drought outlook or warnings from June all the way down to October.

[00:02:55]For the month of June and July, there's both warnings in effect for agricultural and and hydrological.

[00:03:02]However, we we lower those warnings to watches for August, September, and October because we move more into the wet season.

[00:03:10]There's a certain degree of uncertainty as to how much rain we're going to get as we go into season because like I mentioned, you can get one or two of those days of really intense rainfall that could completely swing this part of the table around. And you may actually see it lowered to maybe yellow or even green.

[00:03:26]And that would be good if it does happen. We're looking forward to it.

[00:03:31]Temperature outlook, we are experiencing heat and it's going to get hotter.

[00:03:37]We don't expect records to break like in 2023, but it's going to get pretty close.

[00:03:42]Especially in these urban areas, Bridgetown, St. Michael in the western parts of the island, St. James, etc. Uh we're predicting temperatures around 32 to 34° C. Celsius. going to be pretty hot.

[00:03:53]Uh like I said, this is nothing we have experienced before, so just plan ahead when the heat season really peaks on us in August or September. And particularly when we get those little dry periods that we're expecting within the middle of the wet season.

[00:04:07]And as always, please follow us on the website. You can actually sign up for the WhatsApp channel. Really recommend that. And also you can download our BMS Insight app for those audio alerts. And continue to follow France 4 on his daily videos and Kioni.

[00:04:21]Doing a good job. And take care, guys, and till I see you next time.