The Forecast Feed: Atlantic Tropical Trouble Already?

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Well, it's hard to believe we're a little over a week away from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. 6 months in length. Um, let me show you the um let me show you the what uh the season looks like here. Um, all right. Here we go. So this is what the speed uh the hurricane season looks like here. So it it starts June 1st, but of course much or many of the storms are right in here. I mean this is where you see most of the name storms and large majority of the uh hurricanes are going to be mid August through the month of September and even into October. But you'll notice in here, while you don't have many hurricanes, it it doesn't happen much. You get some storms. It could be as early as May. We've seen it.

[00:00:57]And through the month of June, you do get some name storms. However, the way in which you get named storms is a little different during the early part of the season than during the heart of the hurricane season. During the heart of the hurricane season, you're tracking tropical waves that come across the Atlantic. Right now in the Atlantic, any tropical wave will have a hard time making it toward the Caribbean or even into the Gulf uh because you have too much wind shear and you tend to have too much dry air. The way in which you get in development this time of the year is what I call homegrown development.

[00:01:35]Because think about it this way, without the advent of tropical waves that can form in the tropical depressions, you need something else to kickstart the process for showers and thunderstorms, right? It's the interaction between the jetream and the tropics. That's how you get homegrown development here. The jetream comes down and what it does is it either uh produces an upper low that can sit over the warm water. You'll get an area of low pressure or you get a frontal boundary that stalls. You start to get showers and thunderstorms. You produce you produce an area of low pressure. That low pressure sits over mostly these waters because you don't get homegrown. to get the jetream this far south and west uh in in the tropical Atlantic, but you can get it in the Gulf, southeast coast of the United States and the Caribbean. And if that low pressure forms and you can get that low pressure to sit for 48 hours, you can slowly but surely produce a tropical system. Sometimes it's a subtropical storm, a system that has both um non-tropical characteristics and tropical characteristics. And if I think about it this way, it's because of that dip in the jetream in the northern branch of the jetream that produces a non-tropical characteristic. So my my question to you with that is, are we going to see a pattern soon that has a dip in the jetream? And the answer is actually yes. Take a look at this as we get into next week. This is European.

[00:03:05]This is a week from now. European and the GFS. European GFS. They both have this dip in the jetream. Although the European, this is the American model is a little deeper with it. See this goes all the way down in here, right? So, you're going to end up getting a frontal boundary or energy that is going to be getting into the northern Caribbean. And if I look at that view, I want you to show you what's happening here as we get into Friday. This is the European.

[00:03:34]There's your dip in the jetream. I want you to watch this as we get into next week. Watch what happens. Let's get into Tuesday. You've got this piece of energy down here in the Caribbean. So, what happens is as this jetream energy comes south into the Gulf, watch what happens to that energy. You see it? There it goes. There it goes. Here it comes.

[00:03:54]Right in here. You see that? And then all of a sudden, it's drawn northward by that dip in the jetream and brings it right across Florida. The GFS, very similar. Look at the energy. It's down in here. The American model. What does it do? Well, that dip in the jetream, here it comes, draws it northward. Now, the Europe, the GFS suggests, well, yes, that energy is coming out Friday into Saturday, but it's not coming up in here, but it's coming out in here. So, I think you're going to have something in the tropics coming across either Florida or uh Cuba, Jamaica, uh as and uh into the Bahamas as we get into a week from now. Do I think there will be enough for this to become a tropical entity? Probably not. Probably not. I don't think there I think there's the atmosphere won't be strong enough.

[00:04:50]But that's something you've got to keep an eye on. I I I don't like the Europeans showing this. And again, we're talking about a week from now. But you you'll notice that on the European as that energy comes out in here, this dip in the jetream drops into it, enhances it. Look how it gets a little redder in here. You see that energy going across Florida? That's Friday. I'm going to keep an eye on it. I don't think it's going to develop, but it is something to watch. One other thing to keep an eye on as we get into early June, both of the modeling, European and GFS, show this.

[00:05:26]Watch as I show this. This is Saturday.

[00:05:29]This is Sunday the 31st. Look at this on Monday. There's the European. You've got an upper low sitting here. You see that right here off the southeast coast of another United States. This is another way if this upper low could sit off the southeast coast of the United States.

[00:05:48]It's something to keep an eye on. Now, the American model, similar but different, because what does it do? it it it takes the dip in the jetream, but it's way far north. So, I think based on that, on what I'm saying, what I'm looking at here, this is what I'm suggesting. Well, I don't think there's a high likelihood of any tropical development. It's not zero. And I think you've got to watch these areas a week from now, Florida and Cuba, that something is coming out. Now, it may just bring showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain in this area. That's that's the more likely scenario when it's not a tropical entity. And the other thing to watch is early in June, watch off the southeast coast of the United States.

[00:06:38]Low probabilities, but not zero as we get ready for the start of the Atlantic hurricane season.