Russia Orders EUROCLEAR Pay $200B; Nvidia Declares China WILL Buy; US Iran DANGER Phase

Añadido: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]All right, guys. So, let's talk about sanctions today because they always sound powerful in the beginning.

[00:00:05]Remember all the asset freezes, blocking trade, and weaponizing the dollar? Well, over time, sanctions almost create blowback. And now, the ghost of confiscating Russians assets is coming back to haunt the West in real time.

[00:00:20]Now, even today, despite all the anti-Russia rhetoric, the United States is still quietly extending waiverss allowing countries to continue buying Russian oil. Now, Scott Besson had no choice. He extended another 30-day license because the oil market situation is becoming too dangerous globally. And somehow during the same statement, he still managed to poke China again.

[00:00:45]Somehow, it's just weird. But honestly, Washington no longer has many options left. Inflation is rising again. Bond yields are exploding and the oil market itself is becoming very unstable. The IA is now warning that global inventories could collapse severely if disruptions continue. And honestly, demand destruction is already beginning. Global consumption is slowing aggressively because prices, they're just becoming unbearable. Some estimates suggest that global oil demand destruction could reach around 2.5 million barrels per day under severe conditions. That's not a small amount and ultimately the United States is paying the price for the blockade strategy itself because sanctions always backfire eventually.

[00:01:35]Now the important thing to understand is this. The US actually needs oil to continue flowing globally. That's the big irony because if oil prices explodes too high, everyone in the world becomes poorer. And if the world becomes poorer, how exactly are countries supposed to afford American goods? That's the contradiction no one wants to admit publicly. The war on Iran is really making US exports dramatically more expensive. Now, US export prices were up 5.4% in March, then 8.8% in April. By May, some categories may even be hitting doubledigit inflation price increases.

[00:02:18]That's just terrifying. Now, suddenly allowing Russian oil back into the market isn't just about reducing inflation inside America. There's a bigger agenda. It's about trying to rescue the global consumer entirely.

[00:02:32]Because if oil prices spiral completely out of control, shipping cost, they're going to explode. Food prices, they're going to surge. industrial cost, they're going to rise and consumption everywhere is going to collapse. Then no one can afford US products anymore. Here's the really ironic part. Now, back in April, Besson confidently told markets that inflation would fall.

[00:02:56]>> Uh, a lot of things fall. Uh, again, I I always I found when I was in the investment business to kind of line up my facts. So fertilizer 75% of the planning is already done. That if fertilizer prices don't come down by September or October then could it be a 27 problem? Sure. But I think that they will highly confident.

[00:03:20]>> But the bond market basically taught him a brutal lesson immediately afterwards.

[00:03:24]Yields exploded, oil prices surged and inflation expectations rose again. The market essentially rejected the narrative completely and now Europe is going to face their own blowback as well because confiscation of Russian assets is becoming a much bigger problem. Many policies many policy makers didn't really expect. Now, Moscow court is backing the Russian central bank's claims to recover frozen funds tied up in Euro Clear and potentially we could be talking about up to€200 billion at stake. That's a massive amount. Now, Euro Clear itself still has around 16 billion euros worth of crime link assets exposed inside Russia and Moscow could always begin confiscating portions of those holdings as a form of retaliation.

[00:04:17]And that is exactly the kind of escalation Putin warned about years ago.

[00:04:22]Now, honestly, we should not underestimate Russia's willingness to re to retaliate financially because they've already been doing it. Over the last three years alone, Russia has reportedly seized or nationalized more than $50 billion worth of assets. A lot of foreign companies that have been forced out, factories that have been nationalized, and businesses have been sold to Russian buyers for pennies on the dollar. And it's not just the small firms either. Major Western banks have already been hit. We are talking about Dutch bank, Commerce Bank and Uni Credit. Together they have lost access to big sums inside Russia. Now Putin openly warned back in 2024 that confiscating Russian assets would create severe blowback. But the question runs even deeper. After they steal Russia's assets, they will make another step to destro destroying the system they had created and which ensure their prosperity for decades and which allow them to consume more than they earned.

[00:05:24]And companies all see that their reserves are not safe either legally or economically.

[00:05:31]And honestly, that warning is now materializing in real time. Technically, Europe could still refuse to release the money, but doing so creates another much bigger problem, China. Because the real strategic risk here isn't just losing access to Russia, it's damaging Europe's future relationship with China's financial system. That's where things become very clear, very dangerous for Europe because Euroclear has huge ambitions tied to China. Now, the clearing house wants access to the Chinese bond market. They want massive access, potentially linking European investors directly into $5 trillion worth of Chinese government debt. Now, think about how enormous that opportunity is. But if China sees that assets stored inside Euroca can simply be frozen, confiscated or just merely delayed under western political pressure, why would Beijing trust the system long term? That is the core issue. And a big shout out to our sponsor today, Indigo Precious Metals.

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[00:08:22]Most importantly, protection from sanctions risk because once assets become hostages, then trust simply collapses. Now, while the financial war escalates, the semiconductor war is also reaching a very dangerous stage. And honestly, Jensen Kuang is starting to look genuinely worried. Now, during his recent China trip, Jet spent more time, almost all of his time, eating noodles, drinking milk, and feeding people on the street and taking photos around Beijing than actually announcing concrete deals because there was none to announce. It's hilarious to watch. The entire trip felt like just one giant charm offensive.

[00:09:04]Why? Because despite all the summer headlines, no major semiconductor breakthroughs were announced. Now, Trump did admit that restrictions on the H200 chips has been loosened, but China still isn't buying large quantities from Nvidia. That's the big problem. Now, on the surface, Nvidia still looks unstoppable. hyperskllers in the United States. They're going to spend nearly $1 trillion in capeex in 2027 and beyond.

[00:09:33]Now, that sounds incredible. You have more data centers, more AI infrastructure, which ultimately means more chip demand. But there's a hidden issue nobody wants to talk about. A huge portion of this spending is being financed to debt. They are borrowing money. Now some estimates suggest hyperscalers are borrowing around 30% of total kex. The actual revenues are not fully enough to sustain the burn rate anymore. So they are leveraging aggressively to continue the AI buildout. Now why is that dangerous?

[00:10:08]Because global bond markets are imploding. The US 30-year Treasury yield has now surged towards 5.16%.

[00:10:16]Those are levels we saw right before the great global financial crisis. And data centers are not short-term projects.

[00:10:25]These are multi-year builds. They're very infrastructure heavy. And they require a lot of capital intensive investments. And if yields continue rising, financing cost, they're going to explode higher. Even big tech, they're going to feel the pain. That's why Jensen is practically praying for China to reopen their AI chip market. This increasingly looks like a hailmary attempt. Without China, Nvidia eventually loses access to half of the world's AI and semiconductor demand.

[00:10:57]That's catastrophic long term. And look at how quickly things already devolved.

[00:11:03]Just a few years ago, China represented roughly 25% of Nvidia's total revenue.

[00:11:09]now closer to 4.5%.

[00:11:12]And honestly, the next stop could eventually become zero if things continue. And that's why Jensen is behaving like a diplomat because Nvidia desperately needs China back. Now, while all this financial and semiconductor chaos unfolds, Trump is simultaneously inching closer towards another major escalation with Iran. And honestly, some of his recent statements are just terrifying to read. At one point, Trump basically posted that although military action has been delayed, he has instructed forces to remain fully prepared to launch a large scale assault on Iran at a moment's notice. Think about how insane that really sounds. It literally reads like World War II was delayed for now. Now, reportedly countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, they have all been pressuring Washington to avoid escalation.

[00:12:07]That makes perfect sense for them. Now the economies are already under enormous strain from missing oil revenue. A lot of financial instability. Even tourism heading to the Emirates is in trouble and they are facing recession fears. Now some Gulf economies could enter this territory by year end if the crisis continues. to I was asked by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and some others if we could put it off for two or three days, a short period of time because they think that they are getting very close to making a deal. And if we can do that where there's no nuclear weapon going into the hands of Iran, I think, and if they're satisfied, uh, we will be probably satisfied also.

[00:12:51]>> But a deeper issue remains, which is Trump's maximalist demands. Washington keeps talking vaguely about no nuclear weapons, complete guarantees, and full compliance. But what does that actually mean? Does the US merely want enrichment limits? Or does Washington expect Iran to surrender all their enriched uranium stock powers completely, especially the 400 kgs already accumulated? Because honestly, Tran is not going to agree to that easily, not after what has happened. And this is where things become quite interesting because it actually looks like the US is more worried than Iran when it comes to the economy. Now there are even reports circulating in Iranian media claiming Washington floated possible sanctions waiverss for Iranian oil. Now officially the US has denied confirming anything but honestly the mere existence of these rumors tells you how serious the oil crisis is becoming. If the US is truly considering allowing more Iranian oil back into the markets, that means inflation fears inside the US, they're becoming very, very severe. And honestly, if inflation reaches 5% by the midterms, Trump and the Republicans could get destroyed politically. Now, ordinary Americans, they're already paying the price. US consumers have reportedly spent around $45 billion more on fuel already. And that's money disappearing for food, rent, utilities, and even entertainment. Overall, consumption is going to collapse, and that's why the bond market keeps panicking. There is a reason for the madness. Now, honestly, Homos has remained disrupted for far too long already, and it seems Washington desperately needs an off ramp. You can all see the administration trying to manufacture reasons to believe Iran may suddenly accept American terms. But honestly, the Iranians, they still hold substantial leverage. And Tran clearly understands it. They're not going to suddenly fall overnight. And if anything, Iran continues pushing maximalist demands even harder. You better return our frozen assets guarantee no future hostilities and restore economic access. If not, you're not going to budge. And here's the bigger problem. Even a new Fed chair with him with Kevin Walsh, interest rates are moving beyond the Fed's control entirely. Now, this chart tells us the whole story. Markets went from pricing two red cards to zero cards, and now we are moving towards potential hikes again. That is very dangerous for the hyper leveraged US economy because housing is fragile. Consumers are stretched and the bond markets are very very unstable. And let's not forget the interest cost on the debt. Interest on the national debt is above $1 trillion and it's more than Medicare and defense spending. So this is just one big mess.

[00:15:58]But as always, let me know what you think. Will Eura eventually pay Russia the €200 billion? And is Trump finally beginning to back away slowly from the Iran war? Let me know what you think in the comments below. Stay safe. Smash the like button and subscribe as we navigate through this crazy times.