Mamata Banerjee vs BJP: Is Bengal Seeing a Historic Realignment? | Exit Poll | Today's Chanakya

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[00:00:00]Do you have a breakdown of really how come it's voted to show that consolidation? Well, you know, no, we don't really have that, but what I can show on how it panned out the last time around. Let's look at presidency. They say the nerve center, symbolism, the politics, the power, the perception for Mamata Banerjee lies in presidency. Now, presidency is the region which went to vote in the second phase. And along with of course Bardhaman, parts of Bardhaman also went to vote in the second phase.

[00:00:30]But they make together seven districts.

[00:00:32]Seven districts uh have 142 seats spread out. How they really panned the last time around you'll have an idea. So, what it seems to suggest is in places like Kolkata, the urban sector, and you'll see it right here. You know, if you can see this green belt right here, this is uh the urban sector. Uh you know, okay, we'll just go right back, but if you see that the urban belt had completely gone the beat uh the TMC's way. 11 seats in Kolkata, viewers. 11 seats in Kolkata all swept by the TMC.

[00:01:04]You look at Howrah and Hooghly. Howrah all swept by the TMC. Hooghly, I think there were four that went to the party.

[00:01:10]Out of 18 went to the BJP. Two regions districts which would be so important.

[00:01:16]16 zero and North 24 Parganas four. North we got four. Nadia, they got eight, which is eight out of 16. Nine BJP got out of Once again, nine BJP got out of 16, eight TMC got out of 16 in Nadia. North 24 Parganas, they got four out of 31 or 34 if I'm not wrong. 33 and then South 24 Parganas, the BJP had absolutely nothing out of 31. So, swept. North 24 Parganas and South 24 Parganas would practically decide how big inroads that the BJP has actually made. And with what you were talking of There you go, presidency.

[00:01:58]This is what was a swing If you see the green color here of Kolkata. This was This is the citadel of Mamata Banerjee.

[00:02:05]The urban belt the the South West Bengal. This has completely been shattered. So, what we are really looking at and Rahul Verma If this holds.

[00:02:15]Exactly. Rahul Verma You also had the CRPF deployed in big numbers at Diamond Harbor in all these areas. CRPF was deployed in big numbers all across West Bengal.

[00:02:24]>> [laughter] >> And to ensure so to ensure that there is no chappa vote there in that Their aim was to ensure no chappa vote.

[00:02:33]Okay, Rajat Sethi wants TO COME IN. SO, RAJAT SETHI, what has really happened right now is and uh with what you were saying the urban citadel, if these numbers hold for Mamata Banerjee, has clearly fallen and it's not just, you know, limited to the urban section.

[00:02:50]So, no, exactly, Preeti. This is what you were saying. They want the majority of the minority and minority of the majority. But that minority of the majority that uh Mamata Didi was looking for was this presidency vote, this urban middle-class urban men and women who still clutched on to the cultural appeal that TMC always sort of was in sync with and always claimed that BJP was out of sync with. But keep this in mind that this decay in the urban vote share of TMC is a gradual process.

[00:03:19]Look at the urban corporate corporation elections that happened in 2024.

[00:03:24]TMC Sorry, the BJP had won 44 seats wards within uh the Kolkata region.

[00:03:31]Bhabanipur, for example, out of nine, BJP had won five wards. So, this writing on the wall was getting clearer by the day. And what TMC has been doing was largely the same strategy. I mean, they just run out of strategy or perhaps they didn't had anything new to offer to this Bengali intelligentsia and she had you know, run her course. And I think, you know, this is where Prime Minister Modi, his appeal through very small cultural anecdotes that he pulled in and uh allowed BJP to to say that yes, we are a potent uh option before you. Why don't you try it out? I mean, if if a Vijay can be toyed with in the state of Tamil Nadu, why can't uh you know, the Bengali intelligentsia can get up and say that we want to toy with the idea of BJP. Was it a clear strategy, Maria, that you had the likes of Home Minister Amit Shah, Prime Minister Modi at every given opportunity exude maximum confidence? No, and also maximum reiteration. And also reiteration that whosoever I mean, if the BJP wins Bengal, then the Chief Minister would be a Bengali speaking from a Bengali medium and would be a Bengali. So, there was this reiteration that in the in last 5 years they understood what has gone wrong or what may have gone wrong in the context of them being seen as an outsider. But Saurabh, one thing is also very clear that here was Mamata Banerjee who's always seen as at loggerheads with the center. Her entire politics has been about criticizing center. Even many in BJP say that she's not accepted central government schemes to be implemented in Bengal.

[00:05:13]Do you think what the BJP in con- you know, on the other hand they were saying that it should be a double engine sarkar. That may have also worked for the party.

[00:05:24]Your reading.

[00:05:26]To actually uh accept this proposition, I will have to accept that the numbers that you are showing are actually true.

[00:05:33]Again, I go back to the first statement that I started with.

[00:05:38]Uh this is a hypothetical presumption of the fact that all of this I'm not Please do not get me wrong. I am not trying to belittle this entire process of exit polls or I'm not trying to you know, discard the numbers like that. Having said that, I would really I would not want to comment on a presumption of an hypothetical situation. Um just one counter to all of that. Just imagine for since we are always discussing hypothetical things, let's imagine a situation where these numbers don't come true. It's just the other way around.

[00:06:18]Or let's presume that the number that I see on my screen, Janmat, that comes true. What happens to your analysis?

[00:06:27]Okay.

[00:06:31]So, the the the points that have been raised is there's mass polarization.

[00:06:36]There is massive anti-incumbency. I've been making notes.

[00:06:42]Saurabh, then we will say then we will say that Mamata Banerjee is returning to power for the fourth consecutive time.

[00:06:48]Then we will say that the women voter have continued to have faith in Mamata Banerjee. If it is about Janpat Janmat numbers, then we will say that the BJP is still the party of outsider. It has to cover a lot of distance. All that will be said. But now Yes, that is the analysis Saurabh Chandra, it's hypothesis. You also understand that one is looking at how is it that Today's Chanakya has projected the number that it has projected. Yesterday when we put out the poll of polls, Saurabh, Saurabh, hear me out. Yesterday when we put out the poll of polls, we did also discuss how did Janmat reach this number and it reached primarily because the TMC still holds its ground. Mamata Banerjee is still the supreme leader where West Bengal is concerned. This is hypothesis and it will play out. But Saurabh, allow me to ask you one quick question along with that because a lot has been made up made and said and spoken and analyzed about the woman voter. You have offered X number of schemes over the course of the last many years. Is there somewhere down the line, only if these numbers hold, Saurabh? A because clearly the woman vote has eroded and has gone away from Mamata Banerjee. If these numbers hold, is there a sense that maybe like other states which gave last-minute cash transfers like 9,000 rupees under the Orunodoi scheme in Assam, when what we saw happen in Bihar, the 10,000 direct cash transfer, that maybe Mamata Banerjee instead of sticking to, you know, Kanyashree, the Lok Khirer Bhandar of 1,500, should have maybe gotten into the same kind of politics.

[00:08:21]Perhaps she took the women voter for granted. For granted. That's what exactly what I'm trying to say. Maybe she should have made that offer. Yes.

[00:08:27]What some might see as lollipop, but clearly that lollipop is working.

[00:08:31]True.

[00:08:32]Now, you see, I will I have been on the ground and I clearly believe that the women I I've been attending about 15, 16 sabhas because my mandate is very specific within the party. I have to come and represent the party on national debates. That's a different story. But then 15, 16 sabhas that I have been doing on the ground, what I have seen from my limited experience is that the majority of the people who sit there, cheer out loud, are essentially women.

[00:09:03]And perhaps I'll tell you two things.

[00:09:06]This election, our narrative has been twofold in so far as the woman vote is concerned.

[00:09:11]One is that we have been trying to call out the fallacy of the BJP's argument of the double engine mechanism where we have kept on uh you know, stating the NCRB data. We have talked about the numbers which we according according to us is the reality.

[00:09:29]We have kept on saying that boss, you look at the numbers as per NCRB, which are not our These numbers are not ours.

[00:09:36]And we have tried to highlight that the condition of women which according to us BJP will of course disagree. We are in a democratic setup. Which according to us is that, you know, UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, it's not quite good in so far as their numbers are concerned. This has been our pitch number one. And the second is of course the welfare schemes that you yourself have pointed out. Empowering the girl child, Kanyashree, Lokhir Bhandar, so on and so forth. So, a woman Chief Minister's vote bank is essentially that of women. Okay.

[00:10:13]It's not something which comes as a surprise.

[00:10:16]>> there were no poll violence. Do you do you credit Do you credit the presence of 2 lakh plus CRPF personnel that they were deployed on ground? There was no poll violence this time. And that the fact that Bengal is looked at the most violent political state that this time this was different.

[00:10:35]Phase one was certainly different. I must say that there were there was very little violence there.

[00:10:42]And and and my compliments where they are due, without doubt. Having said that, there is another side of the story also, sir, which you will appreciate.

[00:10:50]Yesterday, the kind of visuals that we have seen where the security personnel went about beating up people on bikes.

[00:10:58]And these visuals have been carried all through in regional media, specifically regional media. You know, I saw a very disturbing video of a child being beaten up. I mean, a 4-year-old 5-year-old child, what You know, because deployment of deployment of CAPF for ensuring free and fair election and for the first time that we haven't seen much of violence on post poll or pre-poll violence. Or at least we hope there will be no post-result violence like 2021. Yes, so it is certainly which is being welcomed by all political parties. Yes, come into this.

[00:11:35]>> Yes, and I join them.

[00:11:37]I join them in welcoming the fact that there is very little violence because because I tell you this is political violence This is probably >> political violence in Bengal is extremely bad. No right-thinking person Yeah, may I finish?