Why Eritrea Turned Against Ethiopia Again

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-26

[00:00:01]There is a photograph that once gave the entire world hope.

[00:00:05]Two leaders standing shoulder to shoulder embracing in Asmara. The crowd roaring, [music] flags waving, tears flowing. It was July 2018, and for one extraordinary moment it appeared that one of Africa's most bitter, most blood-soaked rivalries was finally over. One of those men would go on to win the Nobel Peace Prize. And today those same two nations are deploying troops and military equipment to the northern Tigray region raising the risk of renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa. So, what happened?

[00:00:40]How did the greatest partnership in East African history collapse into what analysts are now calling the most dangerous military standoff on the African continent? Tonight we tell the full story. To understand the fall you must first [music] understand the foundation. Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, [music] a separation which stripped Ethiopia of its only direct access to the Red Sea.

[00:01:06]A strategic blow still felt in Addis Ababa.

[00:01:09]>> [music] >> Five years later that wound exploded into open war. The 1998-2000 border conflict cost [music] over 70,000 lives and entrenched a mutual mistrust that would define the region for the next two [music] decades. The battlefield in question, a small, desolate stretch of land called Badme. A place with no resources, [music] few people and no strategic value to anyone watching from the outside. But to these two nations it was everything. Following a bitter peace process an independent boundary commission ruled in 2002 that Badme belonged to Eritrea.

[00:01:47]Ethiopia refused to implement that decision and the two countries fell into what became known as a state of no war, no peace for 16 long [music] years.

[00:01:57]The border stayed closed, flights were grounded, families were divided, and two of Africa's [music] most capable armies stared at each other across a frozen line. That was the world [music] into which Abiy Ahmed stepped in April 2018. Abiy's rise marked a seismic shift in Ethiopia's domestic [music] and regional posture. Among his boldest moves was the normalization of relations with Eritrea, culminating in the Jeddah peace agreement of September 2018, mediated by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The scenes that followed were extraordinary. The border between Eritrea and the northern Ethiopian province of Tigray was opened and crossed freely. Daily flights resumed between Asmara and Addis Ababa.

[00:02:43]Ethiopian Airlines acquired a 20% stake [music] in Eritrean Airlines. Ethiopian ships began docking at Massawa. During Isaias's visit to Addis Ababa, Abiy stood [music] before a roaring crowd and declared, "When Isaias and I are added together, we share a stab." The world was stunned.

[00:03:03]Abiy was later awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to build bridges with Eritrea. But here is what the celebration missed. The agreement was as much a tactical alignment against the Tigray People's Liberation Front.

[00:03:17]The TPLF, as it was a genuine peace accord. Eritrea had suffered under TPLF [music] dominance for decades. Asmara blamed Tigray's leadership for years of sanctions, isolation, and proxy warfare.

[00:03:31]When Abiy rose to dismantle TPLF power in Addis Ababa, Isaias saw not just a peace partner, he saw a weapon. In November 2020, [music] the alliance was put to the ultimate test. The Tigray War pitted the TPLF against an alliance among the Ethiopian federal government, various armed groups, >> [music] >> and Eritrea. Eritrean brigades crossed the border. They fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces deep inside Tigray. The war was devastating, described by international observers as one of the deadliest conflicts on Earth in the modern era with allegations of war crimes committed by all parties, but most attributed to Eritrean troops. From Asmara's perspective, this was justified. The TPLF had been Eritrea's existential enemy for 30 years. Finally, there was a chance to finish what the liberation struggle [music] had started, but the alliance carried a hidden crack, one that would split everything open.

[00:04:32]When the war ended, Eritrea was not consulted. It was not invited to be a party [music] to the Pretoria peace agreement. President Isaias Afwerki's reaction, his Tigrinya remark, >> [music] >> meaning our mission has been thwarted, signaled a rupture. Asmara [music] had fought Ethiopia's war, bled for Ethiopia's stability, and then been excluded from Ethiopia's peace table. That [music] exclusion was unforgivable. Then came the moment that changed everything. In October 2023, Abiy publicly declared Ethiopia's intent to secure direct access to the Red Sea, calling it an existential necessity, framing his case in historical, >> [music] >> legal, and strategic terms.

[00:05:18]He emphasized Ethiopia's landlocked status [music] and its heavy dependence on Djibouti. Ethiopia bears the cost of being landlocked since Eritrea's independence in 1993, paying roughly $1.5 billion annually to Djibouti to access ports for international trade.

[00:05:35]But here is what history makes absolutely [music] clear. For the vast majority of the last 500 years, centralized Ethiopian rulers never directly [music] controlled or administered the ports of Massawa or Assab. Direct administrative control over the Eritrean coastline existed for only a brief 30-year window in modern history, from 1952 to 1991. The history does not support the claim. Ethiopia and Eritrea reportedly mobilized troops near their shared border in October 2023 after Abiy indirectly threatened to annex an Eritrean port on the Red Sea.

[00:06:11]The peace was over. Asmara did not panic, calculated. Egypt and Eritrea signed a maritime transport [music] agreement in Asmara in the presence of President Isaias Afwerki. Under the deal, the two countries established a direct cargo shipping route connecting Egyptian and Eritrean ports on the Red Sea. Egypt also negotiated for a level of control over Eritrea's Red Sea port of Assab after Eritrea authorized Cairo to upgrade and overhaul the facility. Think about what that means. The territories of Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia all block Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea, which Addis Ababa has been desperate to secure. And now, Egypt controls or has deep influence over two of those three coastlines. [music] Meanwhile, the Fano resistance in the Amhara region continues to inflict devastating losses on federal [music] forces. A senior federal military commander was reportedly killed in recent fighting, a massive blow to the Prosperity Party's military apparatus. And Fano continues to dominate [music] vast stretches of the Amhara region, making any attempt by the federal government to stage a legitimate election a near impossibility. Fano is suspected of receiving support from the TPLF in Eritrea, and both Fano and the Oromo Liberation Army have reportedly cooperated with the TPLF in Eritrea on military planning.

[00:07:36]Ethiopia is not fighting one enemy on one front. It is fighting on every front simultaneously. And yet, as all of this unfolds, as Asmara celebrated its 35th [music] Independence Day anniversary under the theme our resilience, our guarantee, the world [music] sent its messages. The United States Secretary of State sent an official congratulatory message [music] to the people and government of Eritrea expressing a desire for constructive bilateral engagement. The United States is now seeking to reset its ties with Eritrea, a nation it once excluded from Swift, sanctioned like Russia and North Korea, and treated as a regional pariah.

[00:08:19]>> [music] >> Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs extended official greetings emphasizing mutual respect, >> [music] >> sovereignty, and a shared intent to enhance strategic cooperation. France, Germany, Rome all sent their messages to Asmara. And perhaps most symbolically of all, TPLF leaders, the very movement Eritrea fought against in a war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, were seen in Asmara. The TPLF officially extended warm congratulations to the people [music] and government of Eritrea stressing the unbreakable historical bonds and the [music] necessity of peaceful, cooperative relations moving forward. President Isaias Afwerki expressed profound gratitude to [music] all friends of Eritrea who sent messages of congratulations noting that the celebration of Independence Day is both a manifestation and a measure of the trajectory of Eritrea's generational mission of nation-building. 35 years of resilience, 35 years of sanctions, isolation, pressure, and survival. And on May 24th, 2026, the world came to Asmara. They fought together against [music] a common enemy. They built what the world called the most hopeful peace deal in modern African history. And then, one man's hunger for the sea dismantled everything. The 2018 peace deal now appears to have been a brief [music] interlude in a longer arc of enduring rivalry. Neither side can afford full escalation, but open conflict remains a possibility.

[00:09:52]And outcomes well short of direct hostilities, a return to the no war, no peace situation of preceding decades would be disastrous for both nations and for the entire region. What is clear is this. Eritrea did not create this crisis. It responded to one. [music] And as Bloomberg, the Atlantic Council, the International Crisis Group, Al Jazeera, and Foreign Policy all now confirm, with elections scheduled for June 2026 and his legacy on the line, Abiy needs a unifying national cause.

[00:10:23]And he has increasingly signaled that regaining Red Sea access could be it. The Red Sea is not just a body of water. It is [music] the most contested corridor on Earth.

[00:10:35]Right now, and Eritrea, after 35 years of standing alone, is no longer [music] standing alone.