There's ALOT More To This Storm Then You May Think

Added: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]Hello, hello. My name is Evan Freiburger, and today we're going to be talking about the increase of severe weather that is coming into the northern United States with the chances for some damaging winds widespread across a large area, and also the chances for some tornadoes also possible today going into tomorrow and then maybe even into the future. And then some large to very large hail is certainly going to be possible as well. So, we're going to go over all the latest information on all of the latest severe weather data that you need to know. And also all the other stuff as well. So, first starting off today, we have a slight risk out there all the way from Nebraska into Wyoming, South Dakota, and North Dakota. This is mainly going to be a damaging wind threat, but there is going to be a small potential for some supercells with all hazards. If we zoom in here and then kind of push our model forward, you can see that eventually we will see some stronger winds and potentially some large to very large hail being possible for there through all the way up into Canada pretty much. And then further down to the south, we see a little cluster of storms trying to develop by the time we get into 4:00 p.m. Now, if we overlay our upper-level winds right under our future radar, you can see that the reason why this is happening, got a little low pressure system back over here in Canada. You can see it spin right there. And then on the upper levels of our atmosphere, that is going to increase our upper-level winds. That is going to cause some forcing. When you get that forcing, the storms are going to try to fire. And also out in front of these storms, that instability will be building, especially back down over here into South Dakota, where we could have a little cluster of supercells try to develop as we get later into the day.

[00:01:32]Now, some of our latest model runs are showing that this doesn't actually develop. So, it's going to be kind of on a fine line of whether or not we actually see tornadic activity down here or not, but the capping inversion isn't going to be overly strong. So, there is definitely going to be a chance for these storms to fire and potentially upscale into a severe weather or tornadic threat. If that doesn't happen, we'll probably mainly be talking about damaging winds as we get these cluster of storms moved off to the east mainly over here into South Dakota and Nebraska throughout the afternoon going into the night time hours. So, if we look at our tornado threat for today, you can see that we are going to have a chance for some maybe even strong tornadoes today all the way from Custer up into Bison, Dupree, McIntosh, Carson, and Mott there in North Dakota and South Dakota. Also, a little area over there into Wyoming where we could have a either a 2 to 5% there in the green and brown. The brown is the 5% and that tornado threat could extend all the way up into into Canada.

[00:02:27]But, right down here is that's our area of focus for today and that threat should start sometime at around 4:00 to 5:00 p.m. as these supercells try to develop. We get any out in the open warm sector, it's going to be probably our highest chance for tornadoes and probably the scenario that's going to get us some storms with that strong tornado potential. But, it is going to be a pretty brief threat as you can see our storms will upscale pretty quickly into a damaging wind threat. So, that small window is where we need to be watching from around 4:00 to around 7:00 p.m. Now, going into the next day, you can see that our storms going to come through the area. They kind of fizzle as we go into the morning hours of Wednesday and then we start to see some new storms try to develop back over here near Selby and Aberdeen. And as we get into the 3:00, 4:00, 5:00 p.m. area, you can see that we're going to have a lot of storms fire over there near Aberdeen, Redfield, and Huron here in South Dakota. And that is again because we're getting that forcing out there. We're going to force these storms to convect and you can see before they convect, we're going to have a little bit of a surface low back over here and maybe some boundaries out here where these storms can interact and that will increase uh the tornado potential a little bit. But, again, not super strong kinematics. Come over to our 850 millibar winds, we're not really talking about a whole lot of strong winds there.

[00:03:35]You see, we definitely have some forcing aloft. So, could maybe see some potential here for an upgrade of our tornado threat. But, as of right now, we are still a little bit uncertain as some models are saying different things as we go into tomorrow. And as we bring up our tornado threat, you can see we have a 2% right now. Again, I would leave some room for an upgrade, especially down here where these supercells are firing.

[00:03:54]So, maybe over there near Redfield, Aberdeen, and also Webster could potentially see some sort of upgrade.

[00:04:00]And as you can see, we could have a couple of supercells out there that with the potential at the very beginning from around 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. to be more supercellular, more isolated. And then as we go into the late night portions, that congeals into a line and that extends all the way down into areas like Nebraska, going to Sioux Falls and O'Neill. Also, back down a little bit further to the south, got to watch for some thunderstorm activity over there near Woodward and Holbert. Some of those might be severe. And also, down here into the southeast, we're going to continue to see those showers and thunderstorms kind of come off of our ocean, bringing that threat for some lightning and some thunder and maybe some isolated severe weather if you get a a little bit unlucky. So, as we go into Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday morning, we're going to see a lot of those storms kind of fall apart.

[00:04:37]But then, we start to see another severe weather threat develop as we still have some upper-level flow from these low-pressure systems that are mainly going to be in Canada, but they're going to be bringing some severe weather also as far south as South Dakota and Nebraska, over there into Wyoming and Montana, as well. And we could see some damaging winds all the way from Mason City all the way up into Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan generally around these storms. Even without the storms, it's going to be pretty windy as the system moves through. As I push our model forward, you can see that right around 3:00 p.m., we're going to start to see some cells start to initiate. And again, that's because our upper-level flow is starting to spread out in this area, causing some forcing. These storms have to fill that void that forms when you have winds going in opposite directions. And then our surface-based instability also starts to pick up here as well. We're going to bound Thursday afternoon. You can see that some supercells might develop across some sort of warm frontal boundary over here near Aberdeen, near Belle Fourche. And watch out for some interactions there, a little bit more spin along those boundaries. We have plenty of instability, not really so much lower-level shear, so we're probably talking about mainly a damaging wind and hail threat with a tornado threat developing near some sort of surface boundary that is left behind with the storms from the previous night. That will shift throughout the day, so we might see this shift a couple of times before we actually get there. But, generally does look like we could have some mature supercells out there that could interact with that frontal boundary by the time we get to around 5:00 to 7:00 p.m. and then eventually we're going to see this congeal into a line of storms, move off to the east somewhere over there near Watertown around Brookings or maybe as far south as Tyndall and Sioux Falls depending on where that frontal boundary is when these storms develop. And as we go into the late night hours, that starts to fade and then we start to maybe look into the future and so some more storms returning back over here into the Iowa area. And now in terms of our temperatures, it's going to continue to be pretty hot back over here in Texas.

[00:06:26]Some folks getting up into the 90s and maybe even some spots getting pretty close to 100° temperatures. As we add in the humidity, you can see the picture kind of changes a tad. As we start to see those temperatures breaking 100°, especially back over there in the northeastern Texas with those 90° heat indexes extending all the way down into the Houston area. Now, the rest part of the country actually going to see some temperatures start to cool down a little bit for some folks as they get some cooler air on the backside of a low pressure system that is back over on the East Coast bringing widespread 70s across a lot of the area. And then as we continue, you can see that as we get these storms develop, they're going to push off to the east. That will cool down things a little bit up here near North Dakota in the western areas in South Dakota. And it's still relatively our hot spot is going to be over there into the eastern Texas area where we could still be in the 90s back over there in Dallas and Houston. As I continue to push this forward, you can see that our temperatures throughout the next 3 days are going to stay relatively warm it across most of the country even though you get some rain in you know, you get the rest of the next day come in and you're still going to see some sun and it's in the warmth of the atmosphere. No matter where you are, we're talking 80s to 70s across here in the plains going into the to the Midwest. And the further south you go, you might even get down into the 70s throughout the day. Again, going into Thursday. And as I continue to push this forward, you can see that eventually um as we get into the Thursday or Friday start to see that sorry Friday we start to see that heat start to expand a little bit further up to the north where we can see 90s return back up here into Oklahoma, Topeka and then also over there into Nebraska. So a heat up a little bit of a heat up is coming for the central United States but as you get into the southeast definitely a little bit cooler than it has been these past couple of days. But this upper level low is not only going to bring the chances for some severe weather but also in some areas where there's not a whole lot of severe weather could see some wind like back over here in the east coast where we could get up into 27 to 30 mph wind gusts and maybe even getting up close to 40 mph wind gusts over there in Cape Hatteras. That won't really stick around for too long but it will definitely be windy all the way through Thursday and will subside and move more down to the south and west as we move into Wednesday morning and that will kind of dissipate as that little low pressure system off the east coast dissipates as well and then back up here to the northern portion of our country you can see that we're going to have widespread 20 to 30 maybe in some areas getting up to 40 to 60 mph wind gusts associated with some of our thunderstorms. And as I continue to push this into the future you can see it's just going to be generally windier across most of the central United States and as we go into Wednesday that kind of calms down but then we get those storms fire again and we start to get windier back over here into eastern South Dakota and then as I continue to push this forward you can see our main wind going to be associated with the line of storms that comes through again we can see up to 60 to 70 mph winds with some of those MCSs that come through see another highlighted area on Friday back over here in northern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota as well. So yeah thank you everybody so much for tuning in and I will see you guys probably today if we see some supercells develop and start to become tornadic. But thank you guys so much for watching and I'll see you guys on the next one. Peace.