5 -15-26 Is the Bond Market sending a signal?

Añadido: 2026-05-22

[00:00:02]Good morning everyone. This is Dan Bird with the daily scan for Friday, May 15th. It is options expiration day, the day we've all been waiting for all week.

[00:00:13]Looks a little volatile today. Let's see what's going to happen. We'll see if we get another Vbottom today. The market did start off lower. We'll look at that in a second. But what does this chart mean? Anybody know? Uh this is something that I talked about previously actually when it w was up here and now it's actually even higher. So I'm going to talk about this today. It's a very important chart to watch and I'll show you where you can find it on the website. I am not a financial planner so this is for educational purposes only and it does not constitute any kind of advice or recommendation whatsoever. All right, let's take a look. I've got a lot to cover, so it might be a little longer than usual today. Um, let's see if I can get it all in. First, let's take a look at the dashboard. See what's happening over here. Here you can see that the uh S&P is down slightly, but still above the 8 EMA, which it's been following up ever since the bottom back in uh March 30th, and it's still above it. Even though it's uh lower today, it's still above. But look at the Russell.

[00:01:20]It is significantly lower. And Bitcoin as well is lower after hitting the 200 right there. Let's look look at uh the two of these. Let's look at this one first. And the reason I want to show you this one is because there are all kinds of bearish reversing candles in the Russell 2000. First, we have a bearish engulfing candle. That's where the body of the candle fully engulfs the previous day to the downside. So that's bearish.

[00:01:48]This one is a spinning top. That indicates indecision. So after this big run up, huge sell-off, their buyers and sellers are pretty much equal right here. This is a shooting star. That is a bearish reversal candle. This right here you might think is a hammer, but it's not a hammer. A hammer is usually bullish, but hammers are found at the bottom of a run, not at the top. So that is called a hanging man. Hanging man.

[00:02:15]hanging man, spinning top. So, we have bearish engulfing, spinning top, shooting star, hanging man, hanging man, shooting uh spinning top, and then a sell-off today. So, this is confirmation of all of these bearish reversals.

[00:02:32]So, very, very interesting. All of those candles all lined up right there. And by the way, if you go to the website on the charts page for those that are subscribers and right up here at the top, you see charts and candle patterns cheat sheet.

[00:02:52]So patterns are on the right, the candles are on the left. We'll look at the bearish ones. There's a shooting star right there. There's a hanging man.

[00:03:00]You can see it's at the top. If it's uh if it's at the bottom, it becomes a hammer. That is a bullish reversal. But when it's at the top, it's a hanging man. So, we had a couple of those.

[00:03:14]Greystone dogee I talked about last week. The uh bear bearish engulfing.

[00:03:19]That's what that looks like right there.

[00:03:21]Uh all of these things are lining up.

[00:03:25]So, very very bearish, but that's where you can find it. the candle patterns.

[00:03:29]Actually, this little uh cheat sheet right here actually goes into a lot more detail. In fact, so those that are subscribers can download this PDF file and it helps you rec not only recognizing the patterns, but being able to measure the move out of the pattern that's all in this little indicator right here. All right, let's go back and take a look and at the dashboard uh on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is just went up here just trying to get through the 200.

[00:03:58]Keeps getting rejected at the 200 day.

[00:04:00]Big bearish candle today. Almost a bearish engulfing candle from yesterday.

[00:04:06]We'll see how that ends the day. Sitting right on the 21. So that one looks like it is getting ready to roll over. The whole market has been has moved up uh very quickly to a very uh high level. So it would be actually healthy for it to pull back. All right. So, that's what that looks like. Let's look up here. The um sectors, energy, financials, staples, healthcare, all of those are defensive.

[00:04:32]They're at the top. The bottom we have Bitcoin, of course, Russell 2000. I just showed you gold, materials, technology, industrials. Those are typically all aggressive areas. And over here, the um ultra chart list, these, think of this as the momentum. These are the momentum uh um stocks or symbols. Dexcom is at the top today. And then we've got a bunch of software socks. So this is interesting because um semiconductors have had quite a run but software has really been lagging.

[00:05:07]So, Service Now second at the top, Intuitit moving up, Workday moving up, Microsoft starting to move up, uh, Verisque CRM, Salesforce moving up, HIMS beginning to move, Adobe. So, everything in the top is software related. Zcaler, another software company. Uh, let's see.

[00:05:31]Let's look at the bottom. Qualcomm.

[00:05:34]the bottom of the list, we have Wolf Speed semiconductor stock right there.

[00:05:40]Here's a quantum stock.

[00:05:42]One more level down semiconductors.

[00:05:45]There's a um data center buildout stock. So, there's a semiconductor. So, semiconductors look like that might be some rotation happening. We'll see what happens. We've still got uh Nvidia coming up next Wednesday, but we'll see. I think it might have had its run. It might be a sell buy the rumor, sell the news scenario. We'll see how it works out next week. Or it could just explode higher like a lot of the other semiconductors like Broadcom did.

[00:06:13]All right. Home Depot we have reporting on the 19th next week. Intuitit, Lowe's, Nvidia, all Walmart, all those reporting coming up next week. Salesforce um well that's Broadcom's all the way out to June. So, let's take a look at Home Depot because somebody asked me about that. We'll look at the stock, see what Home Depot looks like. It's just been a falling knife, continuing to go lower. This is a classic example of a significant downtrend, and it continues to go lower.

[00:06:46]Red, there hasn't been a green bar since way back here when it had this little move higher. and all of the uh momentum indicators show that it's continuing to go lower. So this is the kind of stock or kind of chart that if you are looking for looking to try to buy catch the bottom and nobody knows where the bottom's going to be of course. So there is a downtrend right there. Here is the oops that right there.

[00:07:18]Here is the accelerated downtrend right here.

[00:07:23]continuing to go down. Um, and even the lows are lower.

[00:07:30]So, lower lows, lower highs, all of that implying that Home Depot continues to move lower.

[00:07:42]So, is it time to get in? Well, there's no way to tell. I think it would be risky since they have earnings coming up next week.

[00:07:51]You have to try to think about what the economy has been doing and is a company like Home Depot ready to start to turn around. Do you think the earnings are going to be good based on what's happening recently and primarily with the housing market?

[00:08:07]So that's what the that chart looks like. You can see it is just nothing but downward trending lines. Let's look at it though on the Kelner channel. So the Kelner is right down here. This this basically shows you the average true range. So the green is one average range. The blue is two times the normal range. The red is three times and the uh dash orange line is four times all the way down here.

[00:08:35]Right now it is in the 3x area. That's usually the place where it will revert to the mean. See here it gets to the 3x 3x right there. It tries to revert to the mean again there. Reverse to the mean. went through it to the upside. So, it is probably pretty soon ready to uh start to move higher. Really is going to depend on earnings and earnings actually could send it lower. So, my um my take on this chart is it is in a firm downtrend. Trying to get in here is a risk. That's a falling knife. You don't know yet if it's going to move up. It is has not changed character. It is still making lower lows. It has not yet made a higher low or a higher high. Really would need to get back above 325 to change character somewhere up here around 330. Right now it's basically right at 300. 300 is an interesting round number that lots of people uh like round numbers. They'll jump in at 300 thinking that that is a nice round number where it should reverse. And it just may very well since a lot of people think that way. However, it it's still going to have upside resistance. So, it's still going to try to have to get through the mean, the 21day. It's going to have to make a new high right here.

[00:09:53]And then it has to prove itself and make another new high above 350. But until at least a high at 330 happens, this has not changed character yet. So, big risk.

[00:10:06]Um the and and that's on both sides. I mean, you could think, well, you know, I could just put a stop down here, get in at 300, put a stop at 295, and it doesn't if it doesn't turn around, then I'm I just have a small loss. But if earnings come in really bad, it could gap down to 280, and your your stop would then execute at 280, not 295. So, that's the thing to think about. It's up to, you know, whatever people want to do. The person that asked me this question, it's up to you. you you like playing the odds of a downtrend. You think it's a good company. It's got a three about roughly 3% uh dividend yield, which isn't bad. So, that's my opinion on that one. Um let's take a look at Nvidia while we're here since they're reporting next week. There's Nvidia on the Kelner channel. You can see it went right up here almost to the 4x. So, green is one, blue is two, red is three.

[00:11:06]almost to four times. Clearly an area where it typically will pull back. So that's what it's doing right now. It may pull back. Actually would be healthy to pull back into earnings because that gives it then the the um ability to explode out of earnings, but right now it could continue to go lower right into earnings. I think it's already made its run. But one thing that I will say um as I mentioned a few days ago, I got out based and this is a really good lesson I think more than anything else. So the reason that uh I got out and I showed that on a previous video is that we had um really bad PPI number. We had a bad CPI number. So inflation clearly was going up. It seemed like all of that would send the market lower, but it didn't. And especially Nvidia, it didn't. It sent it higher. So the lesson here is don't listen and I I've said this many times but even I am sus susceptible. Don't listen to all the noise all around you. All of the news everything that's happening. Just look at what the chart's telling you. And the chart was saying green green all the way from down here. So this is where I got in down here. I made money up 9% but it could have been much better. Green green. It's green all the way up. So there was no, it wasn't even a blue.

[00:12:30]There really was no reason technical reason to get out at this level right here other than basically an emotional reason based on what I think is going to happen rather than waiting to see what actually happens. So that's the lesson to take away from this one. Um, the other one that I I did was GLW. But in this case, I actually got out up here at 205, but again, it was still green. So, in this case, it turned out to be a good move because I made 28% in about a little more than a week, less than two weeks. So, that was a good move. 9% on Nvidia was okay, too. But this one also was green all the way up.

[00:13:16]Now, this was up into the 3x. Right there was the 3x. That would be actually a decent reason to take profits right there. Even though it move still stayed green, it was just basically moving sideways. And that's pretty much where I got out right there when it when it went up into the this is one, two, three, but just touched into the 4x. That is extremely extended just like it was back here. So, that's the reason that I got out of that one. And that one looks like a good decision so far, but it could continue to move higher. We don't know.

[00:13:47]Nobody knows. All right. Just wanted to mention that. Two other ones that were interesting. One is a momentum ETF.

[00:13:55]There's what momentum looks like if you want to just see how momentum looks.

[00:13:59]There's the momentum on the um basically the US market. And it's uh hit hit 4x way up here. So momentum started to slow down. Now we got blue bars. This one here could end up being a red bar depending on where it ends today. So momentum is definitely rolling over. So that's one you might want to track.

[00:14:20]MTUM. The other one is VTV, which is value. Here's what value looks like.

[00:14:26]Value was also moving up, but not certainly not as much as the momentum stocks. And now it's starting to move back down. It's actually in the one uh ATR area. probably make come may come down here to the um revert to the mean.

[00:14:41]But if the rest of the market and uh especially um semiconductors start to roll over, I have a semiconductor stock semiconductor chart here comparing it to software interestingly. So there's semiconductors. You can see that parabolic run that will not last. This will correct. It will come down at some point. But you can see software right here starting to move up. Whereas before they were going in opposite directions.

[00:15:16]So could be rotation out of semiconductors into software. It's still aggressive. It's still in the technology sector, but there could be some rotation starting to happen there. We'll look at the overall market at the end. All right. One other question that came in and I'm going to to show this. I'm going to show the um AI buildout list right here. U you don't need a subscription to look at this right here. You can see what the data center ecosystem looks like. Uh this is in stock charts. So those that have stock charts memberships, I would ask you please if you could just go here and vote. And what I found out is that they reset the votes every month. So, it kind of starts all over all over again. So, if you if you would, of course, you don't have to, but if you would just go in there, even on a daily basis, and click on the vote.

[00:16:08]You don't have to click follow, but click on the vote button. Down here is the CSV file. This you have to be a subscriber to the website. You'll get the CSV file. It's in the chart list and scans page, which has a number of other ones. There's also a presentation down here that was created by AI about that stack. The stack is the strategy.

[00:16:31]So, if you uh if you could do that, here's what it looks like. So, back to the question. Right now, we're ranked number 20. So, actually moving up in the rankings, more votes coming in. That's great. Thank you very much. The one at the very top is an ETF, a pure ETF for all the data center plays. Uh, so that's one to keep an eye on. Interestingly, it's red today. So, that shows you that uh that this this move, this AI move might be played out, might be starting to pull back. It's I don't think it's over by any means, but it certainly needed to take a break. So, it looks like it's starting to pull back a little bit. Here's AMD. So, you can see these are ranked by uh these are organized by area based on that um graphic that I showed before. And that's how they're they're ranked in this list that so there's Broadcom big move yesterday.

[00:17:24]Intel has a red bar today. Nvidia probably a blue bar today. And then it gets into some of the cooling stocks.

[00:17:34]Cooling flex had a great run higher.

[00:17:38]Johnson Controls just been moving sideways. So the question is how do you get these categories into the stock charts list? So, let me bring up the list itself, and I'll show you what it looks like, the actual AI list that I use for that.

[00:17:56]It's actually the the actual one that's on that um that list that I just showed.

[00:18:02]So, here's the AI buildout list. And what you'll see here is that they are categorized over here. First of all, let's see who the winner today. Looks like Microsoft is the big winner for today. up 3%.

[00:18:16]Um, and then network, some network uh ones, hyperscaler, Apple, DAO, which had done really well. Those are all up there, but there's a lot of negative ones today. So, that's just today's view. All the way at the bottom, we've got uh R. There's a quantum stock, materials, nuclear, quantum, neocloud, cipher, robotics. Those are all the bottom of the list. So, how do you get these categories in here? Well, what you have to do is first you create your list. So, in this case, I created my list.

[00:18:48]Click on the edit button. Um, you you first create a list. Give it a name.

[00:18:53]It'll it'll have nothing in it. Then you say add symbols right here and say multiple symbols. And then I just worked off of a list. And I manually entered them all in. I entered all of these names in. There's 100 of them. Enter the name with a comma. A name with a comma.

[00:19:08]Just do that for all of them. Click add charts. And now you've got them all in.

[00:19:12]However, they will not have the categories here. Then you have to go into each one.

[00:19:19]And in the edit mode that I'm in right now, you can see edit up here. I can just click on each one and I can change what that says.

[00:19:32]So this one is compute. So I actually typed that in. But what I did was I do control C to copy. And for the next one when I got to AVGO, which basically just had this second part was all that was in there. Now I do a controlV and it will copy the compute in there. And I just do that for each of these. And that's how you categorize them. It's a manual effort initially, but what it allows you to do later is number one, you can sort by each of those. That's how the list in the public list is sorted starting with the AI data center. It's it's alphabetical. So AI came first. Compute, cooling, energy, hyperscaler. You can see how they they all are now separated and um makes it very easy to sort on it.

[00:20:24]I use that technique on my market bias, by the way. So, the market bias list starts off with the S&P over here. And this is what I do at the end of the day.

[00:20:34]It's actually just before the close. You can see a hanging man candle right there for the S&P, but it has not really started to move lower. So, but what I did was, you can see right here, I numbered, in this case, I number them in the order that I want. So, it starts off with number one. Number two is the NASDAQ composite. Number three is Industri Dow Jones. Number four is the Nasdaq 100. So I can just click through each of these all the way through to the end and I can see very quickly what all the different categories and asset classes look like all the way through.

[00:21:12]And that's what I do each night to and basically it's in this order right here.

[00:21:17]It's in the same order as this spreadsheet. The spreadsheet will tell you will show you by highlighting which ones change, which ones went from bear to bull or from bull to bear each day.

[00:21:28]And then it has a total uh percentage of which how many of these are bullish, short-term, medium-term, and long-term.

[00:21:34]So there's the total up there. And that's what this chart over here basically shows you. We've been just just been moving sideways even as the S&P has moved up. You can see the fear and greed index looks very similar to my proprietary chart. it's moving sideways as well. So, the whole market based on all of these asset classes is really moving sideways even though the S&P continues to go up. So, that's that's how I categorize all of those. Um, if you want, you can actually download this spreadsheet by clicking this button, so you don't have to try to figure out what it says here. It's kind of uh hard to read some of these. They're actually in the same order as you see them on the left. These actually have the charts on them. So, if I want to look at gold for instance, I can click on the gold chart and what I see is that it has a short-term down signal and a medium-term down signal. So, when the pink line, the the uh 8day crosses over the 21, that's a short-term down actually happened right here. And then the medium-term down is when the 21 crosses the 50. And then if the 50 crosses the 200, which is way down here, then it's a long-term down signal.

[00:22:42]That's how those signals are created.

[00:22:44]Uh, and you can look at each one of these each one of these charts. You can take a look at oil. If I want to see WTI, what that's doing, you can see it's in this wedge pattern right here. Looks like it's moving up, getting ready to break out. So, anyway, that's the way you can uh create those in a stock charts list. All right, let's um let's go back now to the dashboard. And I want to see what um we talked about that. All right, that's good. Let's go talk about the let's talk about the image that I showed in the very beginning.

[00:23:22]Very very important. So for those Let me close all the ones down here. For those that saw that image the last time I I uh talked about this, which was a few months ago actually, um you might recognize it, but it is essentially it's on the charts page.

[00:23:45]And it is down here in the blue column near the bottom, international. And I talked about these a couple of days ago.

[00:23:52]That's what brought up the topic that a subscriber mentioned that it's a very important topic and it is the 30-year government bond. So, this is the 30-year. This is the image that I showed on the on the beginning. I talked about it when we got way up here last time.

[00:24:09]We're at 3.95.

[00:24:11]And I talked about how what would happen if it stays up there. This is the 30-year uh government bond, the bond yield for Japan. And Japan had something called yield curve control for years and years, which meant which meant they artificially kept their yields low. What that meant was uh people could uh borrow cheaply in Japan and then take that money and invest internationally in other markets either in bonds or stocks, either one. And so what that did was it had a lot of Japanese. Japan is the largest holder of US um treasuries with uh number two now is the UK and number three is China. But Japan has been the number one holder of US treasuries for a long time. So what does that mean? That means that they buy our bonds. If they buy if people buy our bonds that makes our our rates go down. Well, what happens if they number one stop stop buying the bonds or number two start start selling the bonds? Well, our rates go up. The tenure will go up if that happens. So, this is where this is when I talked about it the last time. I said this is very dangerous for it to be up here near 4%. But look where it is now.

[00:25:27]Just since yesterday and interestingly, right as the meetings in China were happening. So, this is very interesting that this is happening now. So I and I I did a um AI search and anybody out there can do the same. So I encourage you if you want to study this more, this is what I put in. What happens if the 30-year JGB stays at 4%. The domestic impact Japan finally has a long-term yield, a real long-term yield. Remember, they were artificially keeping it low.

[00:25:59]That's something that that uh the new Fed will might have to do here. they might have to do yield co y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y y yield curve control here as well because of this. So if this happens historically, it's it's historically an extreme 4%. That's where we are, by the way, right now we're over 4%. Last time I talked about this, we were at 3.95, we were well over 4% right now. In fact, we are at almost 4.1%.

[00:26:28]Um so Japan only briefly touched this level in May. That's true, but we'll see if it stays there. If it stays there, domestic savings stay home. So, Japanese households and institutions get meaningful domestic yield means they means they can keep their money in Japan. Banks and insurance rebalance like particular shift from foreign bonds back into JGB. So, they sell their foreign bonds, think of US bonds, and they move them into Japanese bonds.

[00:26:56]Fiscal pressure reli uh rises. Japan's debt goes up.

[00:27:02]becomes more expensive to service their old debt and Bank of Japan loses its old playbook. Yield curve control is dead.

[00:27:09]They actually uh announced that they were stopping that back in 2024 and is slowly, you can see it was slowly rising ever since then. So, Bank of Japan must choose between tolerating higher yields or restarting balance sheet expansion once again. And even though the new Fed chairman Worsh has publicly stated he wants to contract the balance sheet, he actually may not be able to do it if this continues. Now what I think is the the rest of the world and uh in particular the US is going to do some things to make sure that this comes back down again that it doesn't stay elevated at 4%. However, this is something that will take time and I think it actually could be one of the reasons for what I've been talking about in 2029, 2030, the beginning of the new secular bare market. This could be one of the key catalysts for that, but it's going to take time for this to play out. Right now, it's show definitely showing warning signs.

[00:28:10]Capital flows reverse. Japan has been one of the world's largest buyers of US treasuries, actually the largest. When Japanese yields rise, money goes home, reducing demand for US debt. This dynamic explicitly highlighted in market commentary. Rising Japanese yields can pull capital home, pressure US treasuries, and lift global borrow borrowing costs. So that will affect bonds, but it will also affect the uh stock market, which I'll show you here in a minute. So if the 30-year JGB stays at 4%, US treasuries drift higher, global borrowing costs rise and funding conditions tighten worldwide. Persistent 4% long bond bond yield increases Japanese JPY attractiveness reduces incentive for Japanese institutions to buy foreign bonds. All right. gold and silver will will rise.

[00:29:04]Um if 4% becomes a new normal, investors question whether governments can sustain high debt loads. That that means our debt our debt load will go up as well.

[00:29:15]Global risk parity and duration durationheavy portfolios face structural headwinds. The 30ear stays at stop Japan stops exporting capital. Yen strengthens. Japan's fiscal math worsens etc. Uh so my next question was US equities what does it mean for that the 30 30-year stays at 4% impact on US equities is unambiguously negative over the medium-term because it forces global repricing of duration liquidity and risk premium persistent 4% pulls Japanese capital home pushes US yields higher all of which pressure US equities especially long duration all right so this this will have an impact on the US equities uh mega most negatively affected mega cap tech unprofitable AI biotech reats and utilities mixed impact financial and energy potential beneficiaries value stocks small caps commodity equities S&P 500 overall um PE compresses earnings multiples for tech companies 10 to 20% % bond equity correlation stays positive.

[00:30:35]So in general it will be it will tighten liquidity and move money will move out of US equities and bonds and back to Japan. The second part of the question the person asked me was regarding the UAE uh and you can use AI for this as well.

[00:30:55]question I asked what is this what does the swap line with UAE mean for US dollar and reserve currency stats. So the UAE uh US just implemented a swap line with the United Arab Emirates and this is not really related to the Japanese issue. This is more related to reinforcing the dollar and the reserve currency status of the dollar. So it's a dollar liquidity backs stop extended as strategic energy exporter deepening US financial influence not a move towards ddollarization.

[00:31:32]So reinforces dollar dominance. Swap lines ensure permanent access to US liquidity. It essentially allows the UAE to always always ensure that they have access to US dollars. Uh oil is traded by US dollars. That's one of the advantages of being the reserve currency of the world. Major UAE and major global oil exporter key Gulf financial hub recently exposed to regional instability swap line gives them assured dollar access during stress stabilizes oil settle settlement flows reduces volatility and keeps the dollar at the center of energy markets. So the UAE was threatening to start to use the one Chinese one for selling oil. This ensures that they continue to use the US dollar. Expands the Fed's influence, reinforces uh the this UAE currency pegged to the dollar. Signals the US is willing to use swap lines as a geopolitical tool.

[00:32:31]Similar to the US swap with Argentina in 2025.

[00:32:36]U so what the swap does not mean does not signal UAE financial distress, does not weaken the US dollar. If anything, it strengthens the US dollar. Strategic interpretation lock in energy market dollarization.

[00:32:52]Final takeaway is the US swap line. US UAE swap line is a bullish signal for the US dollar's global reserve currency status. That is really, really important. It expands the Fed's influence, strengthens dollar liquidity and energy markets, and deepens US Gulf financial. Then I asked what other countries have a swap line with the US.

[00:33:12]There are these are the elite permanent swapline partners. The EU, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Canada. That's it. Only five. And now we have the UAE. Um there's additional these are uh non-standing meaning non-permanent. Bank of Canada, Bank of Mexico, and then crisis era temporary.

[00:33:37]These are temporary swap lines that have occurred but they're not permanent. Uh, so where does the UAE fit? Is not part of the standing swamp line group. The new swamp line is a specific bilateral arrangement, not part of the Fed's permanent network. This makes UAE's inclusion geopolitically significant.

[00:33:55]It's the ma first major Gulf oil exporter to receive such a facility.

[00:34:00]This is really important especially as it relates to oil and as it relates to petro dollars meaning oil has always had to be traded in US dollars because u US dollar is the reserve currency. Now what does it mean that it ensures that UAE always has access to US dollars? Well, right now because of the conflicts in Iran, they have they have depleted their their dollar um uh ability to use dollars for uh oil. So, they were threatening to use the yuan instead.

[00:34:36]This basically means that they always have access to US dollars if they're uh the amount of dollars they have starts to decline. How does the US do that?

[00:34:45]Well, because we are the reserve currency, we can print dollars anytime we want. And it it it may not affect us um from an inflation standpoint like it would every other country in the world that that does not have reserve currency status. So that's the reason that we can do it and it it is very very strategic, very important agreement with the UAE.

[00:35:09]It's going to be interesting to see how it plays out. All right, that was a long uh explanation of things that are happening in the world right now. I created a chart down here for US versus the Japanese 10-year. So, you can see up here the Japan tenure has been steadily climbing. This goes back to 2021.

[00:35:30]Steadily climbing while the US tenure has just been going sideways. So the 10 the Japanese tenure has now surpassed the US yen to dollar has it has weakened the yen but if they continue to raise then the yen will strengthen US dollar is down here starting to strengthen a little bit and this is the important one the spread between the 10-year and the Japanese 10-year if this spread which is basically the cost of doing the uh carry trade the Japanese yen carry trade this is basically the cost of that trade If that spread between the US 10ear and the Japanese 10-year continues to decline as it has been, it broke through a key support level right here um middle of last year. It's now reaching another very key support level. You can see all the way back here to 2021. If it breaks through that one, then this is this is really going to impact a lot of things related to what the Fed and the Treasury wants to do. So, watch the 30-year JGB because you can see it's starting to pull back a little bit. Um, let me go back and click on it again. For those that are subscribers, you can see it right here at the bottom of the blue column on the charts page. Here's a 30-year JGB. Uh, like it did right here.

[00:36:50]It went up significantly in just three days and then magically pulled all the way back. I expect to see that same kind of pullback. I think the governments of the world do not want this to get above 4% for any long length of time, but I think it's going to be inevitable. I think this might be one of the catalysts that start or uh that start the end of the current secular bull market. So keep an eye on that. Keep watching that. Um so that was the chart that I added. I also have one for currency pairs.

[00:37:27]You can see right here, I showed this the other day. You can see the dollar now is is really gaining steam, really beginning to move higher and a lot of those that foreign trades, you know, moving into other foreign currencies is is coming to an end, I think. So, be careful and we'll have to keep an eye on that. Also, um here's a relative graph performance graph of international markets right here. This is Korea that I talked about. Here's um emerging markets. Japan is the black one and you can see the US is right there. The US was all the way down here at the bottom and it's rapidly moving higher. So, this one right here is really interesting.

[00:38:06]The Korean one, which just so happens to also be on my AI buildout list. It's at the very end of the list. See if I still have my AI list here.

[00:38:21]So, you can go all the way to the end.

[00:38:24]go to the last page and that shows you the South Korea ETF pulling back along with everything else right now. All right, let's see what's happening with the markets before I close. Sorry, this has been a long involved one today, but a lot of stuff to cover since I I had a lot to do yesterday. I was not able to do a video. Um, let's look at first the indexes. See where we are for the weekly.

[00:38:55]Notice we went right up yesterday, touched the weekly expected move.

[00:39:00]Amazing how that happens. And now we're pulling back. Likely will be within the expected move. That's how market makers price options options expiration is today. You can see that uh starting to the RSI is starting to go back below 70.

[00:39:15]The VIX is at 18. Still not above 20. So still so kind of behaving itself overall.

[00:39:22]the um NASDAQ 100, same thing. It's uh with right in the middle of the weekly expected move and RSI starting to move lower on that, too.

[00:39:33]And then the um Russell 2000 sitting right at the bottom of the weekly expected move. So, this one is going to be interesting one to watch down here.

[00:39:44]The R RSI has been heading lower for quite a while on that one. And then finally, let's look at the uh 10-minute charts and see what's happening in a much closer in view.

[00:40:02]And right there, you can see we're right in the middle of the daily expected range. Big gap down, started to move back higher, but now we're just kind of moving sideways. Technolog is down. All of the uh all of the key aggressive sectors are down. Although technology is still hanging in there actually. So the one thing that's still holding the market up here staples, all of the defensive ones started to move higher in the morning. Now they're pulling back a little bit. So maybe we'll get that Vbottom again today. See what happens at the end. Materials definitely down.

[00:40:36]Energy is up. So when energy a lot of times is up, then the market is starts to move lower. Here's the rotation growth versus at value actually is looks pretty healthy. discretionary versus staples down, technology down slightly, but now moving sideways. Semiconductors pulled back considerably, but it's kind of stabilizing too. So, the end of the day is going to be really interesting, especially with this being options expiration. Here's the uh breath that I showed yesterday. And percentage of stocks above the 20 and 50 and 100 is still and 200 are still moving lower.

[00:41:10]So, which makes sense since the market's moving lower, but they've been doing that for a little while now. The Russell 2000 definitely the weaker uh still in the daily expected range but significantly underperforming the large cap area. Same thing with uh breath looks even worse for this one. NASDAQ 100. This is the important one. This is where the all the technology stocks are.

[00:41:36]Big gap down trying to make a comeback.

[00:41:39]Moving sideways right now. It's above Monday's open which is positive. still in the daily expected range. Uh so but significantly down for advancers and decliners and volume but the VIX after a big huge move higher starting to pull back. So VIX still at 18. That's going to be the key thing to watch by the end of the day today. You can see here the also the the uh breath on that one has been moving lower. Then one other one that I added here which is interesting kind of shows you how markets work. This is expansion and contraction. This is the This is on a 10-minute chart really to highlight how markets work, but it works on longer ones as well. So, these are Ballinger bands down here. Uh, this is a B, this black line is a Ballinger band line. Just kind of shows you the expansion and contraction. Uh, and the one on top is the squeeze, which shows you which direction the expansion and contraction is going. So, you can see right down here the bubble, that's expansion. Then we got contraction, expansion, contraction, expansion, little bit of contraction right here.

[00:42:47]And then expansion all the way up. We got contraction right there. Expansion again, contraction. And now expansion to the downside. And you can see up here, same thing. So this is expansion, but it doesn't tell you which direction, but you can see it kind of coincides with the momentum bars on the on the squeeze indicator. So expansion, it goes up.

[00:43:10]That's how markets move. They go between expansion and contraction, contraction, expansion, contraction, expansion. So this kind of shows you which direction.

[00:43:19]Right now the direction is down with momentum starting to move a little bit higher right now. We'll see how this ends the day, but it looks like uh definitely expansions to the downside right now. So, keep an eye on that. All right, that's it for today. Sorry it was a long one. Sorry I missed yesterday.

[00:43:35]Let me know if you have any questions, comments, anything you want me to look at. Be happy to do that. I think I covered everything I wanted to, which was a lot today. Um, keep that JG 30-year JGB in mind. We don't want it to stay up there at 4%. I don't think it's going to, but it's really important to keep an eye on it because it will have global impacts if it stays there. So, that's it for today. Thanks for watching. Please like and subscribe.

[00:44:04]Click the little thumbs up button if you do nothing else. Please go over to the AI list and um vote. Vote often, early and often. For those that are uh stock chart subscribers, just click on that button and go over there and vote every day if you could. I really would appreciate it. All right, and uh that's it for today. Please like, subscribe, and share it with your friends. Have a great weekend, and I will talk to you again on Monday. Take care.