US-Iran leverage, allies and Hormuz tensions are reshaping world order, analysts say

追加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]And joining me now here in the studio is Daniel Faer, the executive director of the Gulf International Forum. And in our studio in Washington DC, we've got Adam Clemens, a US foreign policy analyst, and he's also a former Pentagon official. Thank you to the both of you for joining us here on the program. Uh Danielle, let me start with you. In the last few minutes, we actually heard from Iran's Foreign Minister, Abasarachi.

[00:00:22]He's saying that the talks and messages with the US are ongoing and that we really shouldn't judge things until we actually see the result of things. But who holds the cards at this point? Who's got the best leverage, the US or Iran?

[00:00:38]>> That's a good question. Um, and I would agree with him. We we actually can't come to any conclusion until we actually seal see the deal sealed publicly. Um well it depends on how what you emphasize on more. For example, um right now in the last couple of days, the the Trump administration and Trump foresee more positive outlook from their perspective with the upcoming midterm elections. Uh the Supreme Court ruling allowing redistricting that could be favorable uh to the Republicans in the midterms is something looked at positively. The slight decrease in gas prices is a selling point. Um and also the fact that the Trump administration was able to sanction I think up to a billion dollars worth of cryptocurrency, a method in which uh Trump and Trump, I'm sorry, the Iranians try to bypass um US sanctions. So they feel like they have enough pressure on Iran. Um whereas Iran sees itself that it can withstand and have a higher degree of pain economically speaking as because it's been sanctioned for for decades now and this is not something new although their economy is reeling. Um and so uh they also think that the international economy card is going to be uh their strongest card. Neither party has blinked. Um, and we have to see where it goes with the negotiation.

[00:02:10]>> Right. Adam, the US has basically crippled the Iranian economy at this point. Donald Trump says he has blown the Iranian Navy to pieces. They're at the bottom of the sea. They have no air force left. Yet, Iran is not giving up.

[00:02:25]Do you think that there's been too much focus on on these kind of military threats threatening of bombing Iran back to the stone age when you haven't actually yielded any kind of real result yet?

[00:02:41]>> Thank you for having me. I think you're right to note the limits of military power. I think there have been many analysts that have examined perhaps the US's uh overuse of military power over the past decades. And here is quite a a blatant example of the limits of military power and specifically the limits of an exclusively exclusive air campaign. And so I think you're right uh to notice uh some of the limits here. uh and what's lacking here I think for the US has been what's traditionally done is using international partners and allies uh to bring about uh core uh policy changes or to try to drive uh some of these policies uh or political uh ends or political goals rather and then using uh tools using economic tools military tools uh to try as a means to bring about these ends and so I think that's one thing is still lacking. Uh that I think that uh I've been still surprised of the US. I guess I shouldn't be surprised given the the style of the administration, but they're still lacking an international part of of trying to bring together partners and allies uh to try to develop a solution.

[00:03:59]Uh, and I so I think that what you're noting here is even if there's a 60-day ceasefire, then in the long term, how do you get leverage? How does each side try to position itself to obtain leverage? And if for the US, uh, getting even China, Russia, the P5+1 that occurred in the joint comprehensive plan of action over 10 years ago, that was the key aspect here of getting partners and allies. I don't see that yet. And so that's a key ingredient uh and typically a tool that the US has used >> and it's not being used here. So I think that's what we need to watch is the US still continue to go along uh or can it bring other partners here? I think there are elements of of European partners allies that once there's some type of agreement in place they may be ready to help from a a military aspect to help secure uh freedom of navigation. So these are all things I think we should really continue to watch closely as compared to uh previous uh action from the US.

[00:05:02]>> Yeah. Bringing those allies closer. Da of course some of those allies are the Gulf states but now that Iran insists on maintaining control of the straight of moose. They've set up this Persian Gulf Straight Authority. Those Gulf countries can no longer rely on this sort of automatic equilibrium of knowing that they can always use the straight of Hermoose to export their goods. How is all this going to impact their economic model when things have clearly changed on the ground?

[00:05:32]>> It's important to note that from the Gulf States perspectives, having a strong a strong international norms and international law and a global governance structure that allows smaller states to be able uh to achieve their rights through through these um institutions and mechanisms. And the problem is, President Trump has been in some ways undermining international law, whether it be the United Nation, the World Health Organization, the World Trade Organization. Um, and it in in some ways it undermined the application of international law when it comes to the trade of Hormuz because now we're not talking about uh applying international law equally in all areas.

[00:06:21]And so he kind of undermined the whole rule-based order. That was something much more emphasized on under the Biden administration. The Biden administration also undermined it in some ways, but in but held it to a higher regard than than the Trump administration. And this has made the Gulf States very sus susceptible and vulnerable because coercion is going to be the currency moving forward. And we're seeing that with the straight of Hormuz and um the behavior of Iran when it comes to the freedom of navigation.

[00:06:53]>> Adam, do you agree with that that the US has a responsibility here for as DA says undermining the international rules-based order, international law by getting us into this situation where it's no longer free passage that is the way things are done in the straight of moose.

[00:07:15]I do think the US certainly has a responsibility here and I think that's uh part of the frustration that you'd see in Gulf States and maybe not their public engagement with the US but probably privately uh and through third party interlocators of uh their frustration. Uh the US of course uh since the end of the second world war has helped build these institutions and help uh support through for many decades the free flow of oil and commerce uh through international waterways. And so I do think uh regardless of what happens here uh even towards the end end of the from now until the end of the Trump administration I don't have any doubt that the next administration whatever it is Republic Republican or Democrat uh would see that the free flow of commerce is a a uh a very strong uh and and vital uh strategic interest of the United States not only here but you definitely have to look at the Mala streaks of other strategic IC waterways throughout the world. Uh so I think how that that is really important here of how we contextualize it's not just uh the street of homeless, it's other international uh precedent that we're setting here and I think that's also a little bit of what DA touched on.

[00:08:30]>> Adam Clemens, a US foreign policy analyst. Thank you so much, Adam. And also thank you DAR, the executive director of the Gulf International Forum. Thank you.