POLKADOT BOTTOM CONFIRMED? (Will DOT Crash Lower?)

[00:00:03]Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome back to Selenik Crypto, and welcome to your weekly update on Polkadot. Going to do a full update. We've had some meaningful price action since the last time I covered this, which I think was either Wednesday or Thursday last week. Um back then, the main level that we really talked about is between a dollar and 95 cents, which is quite interesting because that's also the main support level that XRP has, but it hasn't reached it yet. Um but that was the the key level that we spoke about as being a potential, you know, not generational bottom, but potential high time frame bottom from which we can expect some bullish momentum.

[00:00:37]And it therefore is quite interesting as well. And I wanted to do a bit of a follow-up on, okay, that's what I said back then. We have a chance to form a strong bottom there um based on multiple reasons, but the key reason is is that it was the 10/10 wick, right? So, you can see I need to make that a little bit uh more accurate, but you can see the 10th of October, obviously, when we had that massive liquidation spike in the crypto markets. We pushed down into uh 94 and 1/2 cents, a little bit lower even, but 94 and 1/2 cents. And then, obviously, why make it into a dollar?

[00:01:07]Because that's a strong psychological level. But the most important level is 95 cents, right? So, so let's uh let's actually do this. Let's make it a little bit smaller so we have a little bit more clarity. Um but that was the key level that we spoke about. What would I say about the price action so far? Pretty good, but not enough to conclude that it's the generational bottom yet. And I'll tell you why.

[00:01:28]And that has to do with a couple of things. First of all, I do actually think that the lower time frame structural developments has been good, right? So, you can see every time that we drop down below that spike low, we've been able to reclaim that. Here, fake out, reclaim. We reclaimed it with decent strength as well every time that we reclaimed it. Obviously, also under relative fundamental strength in the wider markets, right? So, obviously, the crypto markets are not bullish at the moment, but we did see some recovery market-wise um and then I'm also talking about equities, right? So, that's helped.

[00:01:58]And [snorts] that helped enough to at least for now hold that strong bottom.

[00:02:04]But the thing is is that if we talk about Polkadot's own fundamentals, there's not much that is bullish and not not priced in, right? So, so if we're talking about the emissions cut that we had earlier this year, that's bullish, but it's priced in. And there's nothing at the moment that's that's bullish for Polkadot specifically.

[00:02:26]Right? So, why we would expect a a Polkadot rally that is not priced in.

[00:02:30]Like if you look at the ETF, there's also really not much going on there.

[00:02:34]Um interestingly enough, we actually did have 360,000 uh dollars of inflows earlier this week.

[00:02:40]So, then the cumulative um total net inflows went from 1.6 to almost 2 million dollars. Pretty interesting, but that's that's on its own it's not it's not going to do enough. So, if we cannot have it from the fundamentals, the structure looks decent, right? But the structure on its own is not enough. We need to work from from the flows. And we have seen before that when we have very negative funding rates, we can actually have a strong bottom for for Polkadot. Right? So, for example, we had some very negative funding rates right here, 14th of April, nice local bottom, right? Got a got a nice move into the upside.

[00:03:13]Um we also had some negative funding rates right here in March, that was nice. We had some negative funding rates right here in in in December. Uh then it actually did nothing, right? So, so it's still a bit of a bit of a hit or miss. But at the moment we can make it easier for easy for ourselves. We also don't have any strong order flow. Right? So, the funding rates are are positive and there's also no signs of absorption, which then you'd at least want to see that. So, therefore I'm I'm telling you that, okay, structure-wise we look good enough. And based on that, I'd say, okay, we can actually hold this support level. As long as we do, I expect it to continue to hold, right? It's very easy to say, um but and even maybe get a move into the upside because that's generally what I expect from the markets.

[00:03:55]But I don't think it's interesting enough because I think the risk, even though I don't think it's most likely, I think the risk of losing this level and starting price discovery into the downside is too big.

[00:04:07]And the potential rewards is too low, too small if we don't have strong order flow or strong bullish order flow or strong specifically bullish fundamentals for Polkadot.

[00:04:20]Um so those are my thoughts. I mean therefore I I would expect this, but then later on honestly I I think it's more likely or at least it's better to expect a rejection and a push down lower. So those are my thoughts for now.

[00:04:30]That's all that I think you need to know. Thank you for watching everybody.

[00:04:33]Um I'll see you on my next videos. Take care and bye.