Most Sports Bettors Are Doing This Completely Wrong

追加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]If you've ever felt like you're doing everything right, you're picking winners, you're watching games, you're following trends, but somehow your bankroll just slowly bleeds out over time, you're not alone. And more importantly, you're not unlucky. You're just playing a game that's designed for you to lose. And in this video, I'm going to break down why 95% of sports bettors lose long-term, and more importantly, the three things that you can start doing today to completely flip the script. The biggest misconception in all of sports betting is that sports betting is about picking [music] winners. That's what everyone thinks. If I can just win more bets than I lose, I'll make money. It sounds logical, right? But it's completely wrong. You can win 55% of your bets and still lose money. Let me explain why. Sportsbooks don't just set odds based on who they think is going to win. They set odds to guarantee profit. That means that every single line you see already has a built-in fee. That fee that sportsbooks charge you is called the vig or juice.

[00:01:03]So, when you bet something that has minus 110 odds on both sides, you're not playing a fair game. You're paying a tax on every single bet that you make, which means that over time, even if you're slightly right, you're mathematically losing. So, problem one is simple.

[00:01:17]You're betting into bad numbers. And if you don't fix that, nothing else matters. Now, here's the second major problem in sports betting. Most people have no actual edge. And I know that may sound harsh, but it's true. Think about how many people make picks thinking this team is due, or this team has been hot lately, or simply I just have a gut feeling this team is going to win the game. That, plain and simple, is not an edge. That's entertainment and gambling.

[00:01:44]An edge is very simple. It's when the true probability of something happening is higher than what the odds are implying. That's it. For example, if something has a 60% chance to win, but the odds are priced like it has a 50% chance to win. That's value. That's your edge. But if you're betting on a game where the price is already accurate, or even worse, priced against you, you are guaranteed to lose long-term, no matter how smart you think you are. And this is where most people get stuck. They're trying to be right instead of trying to be profitable. Now, the third main problem sports bettors have, and honestly the problem that destroys people the fastest, is having no system.

[00:02:23]This is where bankrolls disappear.

[00:02:25]People bet random amounts, they double down after losses, switch strategies every day, and chase locks to get even.

[00:02:32]There's zero consistency, and if you don't have consistency, you can't have long-term results. Winning bettors don't treat sports betting like gambling. They treat it as a system. They follow the same process, the same criteria, the same bankroll management practices, [music] and they do this every single day. Because here's the truth, you don't lose your bankroll from one bad pick.

[00:02:55]You lose your bankroll from bad decisions stacked up over time. So, now that you understand the three biggest problems in sports betting, bad numbers, no edge, and no system, let's talk about how you can actually fix them. Fix number one, always get the best price.

[00:03:10]This alone will change everything. You should never be placing bets at just one sports book, because lines are constantly moving and sports books offer different prices. Now, here we are on the Odds Jam sports book screen. And let's take a look in the MLB. We'll go to the money line. Let's say you absolutely loved the Toronto Blue Jays to walk away with a win over the Tampa Bay Rays today. Well, we can see here that all these sports books are offering a very different price, and you could go over to BetMGM and take the Toronto Blue Jays at plus 105 odds to win the game, which means that if you were to bet $100, you would return $105 worth of profit. Now, that sounds great, but what if you just decided to take a look at the odd screener and head over to Novig, which is offering the Blue Jays money line at plus 118 odds, which means if you bet $100, you would win $118.

[00:04:01]Now, that $13 of extra profit by taking the Blue Jays money line on Novig instead of BetMGM may not seem like a lot to you right now, but across hundreds and thousands of bets, those small increments by simply line shopping add up a ton. And simply line shopping could be the difference between winning and losing long-term. Now, think of a favorite like the Milwaukee Brewers whose best odds are available on Novig at minus 121. Now, let's take a look at a favorite in the MLB like the Milwaukee Brewers money line whose best odds sit at Novig at minus 121 when other sportsbooks like Bovada have them at minus 132. If you were to consistently be betting on Bovada instead of Novig, you're cutting yourself out of profit long-term. By simply taking the time to compare odds and find the best price, you can instantly make yourself more profit over the long run. And while it may seem incredibly obvious when we look at the odd screen, line shopping is one of the best practices you can do as a sports better. Now, let's move on to fix number two, only bet when you have an edge. This is the biggest mindset shift you need to make as a sports better. You are not trying to predict games and you are not trying to be right. You are trying to find mispriced odds. That's it. And this process is called positive expected value or plus EV betting. It means that a bet can be profitable even if it's going to lose because you know you have long-term value. When positive EV betting over hundreds and thousands of bets, you're stacking up edges over the long run and putting the math in your favor. Now, this is another instance where having software will help you out tremendously. We're now over on the Odds Jam positive EV tool and we can see here we filtered just some of the sportsbooks we have access to and we can see that Andre Drummond under two and a half rebounds has a 10.87% edge. Now, this is a ton of positive expected value and we can dive into why.

[00:05:54]So, over on Bovada, they're offering his under two and a half rebounds plus 165 odds. When we click into this and compare the other sportsbooks, we can see that other books are in the minus 120s, minus 130s. That's a massive difference to plus 165. Now, it does not guarantee that Andre Drummond is going to go under two and a half rebounds.

[00:06:16]However, we do know that if we bet this enough time over the long run, we can expect to have a 10.87% edge on this bet. And as you can see, there are a ton of positive EV plays that pop up. We can take a look at this one. Jeremiah Jackson under half a single is at minus 140 over on BetMGM.

[00:06:36]This is going to give us a 6.57% edge over the rest of the market if we take this on MGM. The reason being, we can see over here on Draft Kings minus 193 odds. On Caesars, minus 175. Hard Rock, minus 175. And you see other books get into the minus 200s. Now, once again, you have to ask yourself, would you rather bet this at minus 140 over on MGM or would you rather be lazy, not line shop, not care about positive expected value, and go to Draft Kings and bet this at minus 193? The answer should be very simple. If you're looking to win $100 on this bet, you'd rather put up $140 to win $100 than put up $193 to win $100 on the exact same bet. Now, as you can see, Odds Jam is going to scan the market and essentially find instances where sportsbooks have set their line wrong compared to market consensus. Positive EV betting is how you gain a clear advantage and a clear edge over the rest of the sports betting market. And it is one of the main strategies that sharp bettors use to consistently beat the books. Remember, sharp bettors don't guess, they exploit pricing inefficiencies. Now, let's move on to our third fix. Build a simple system. And remember, you don't need anything to be complicated. [music] In fact, when starting to become a profitable sports better, the simpler you can make things for yourself, the better. And here's what a winning system looks like. Set a bankroll, use consistent unit sizing, only bet when you have plus EV, and track every single bet you take. That's it. No chasing losses, no betting with your emotions, no random bets just because you feel like something's going to hit. Staying disciplined in sports betting can be boring. Everyone wants to turn their $10 into $10,000 on a crazy lotto parlay, but the reality is that's exactly what the sports books want you to do. Sharp betting strategies may be boring, but when you're consistent, that's what allows your edge to play out long-term.

[00:08:35]Now, one of the best things to do to get started with your system is to get everything organized. What you can do on OddsJam is use the computer software to help us set up our system. We can go to our profile, we can go to our bankroll settings, and right now we'll say we're going to start out as a $20 a unit better. So, what that means is we want $20 to be 1% of our total bankroll, so this would insinuate that you have $2,000 that's going to go into your sports betting account. So, we can simply type in $2,000 here, and we're going to save our changes. And what you're going to see on OddsJam is that all of your positive EV bets are going to correlate with a bet size relative to a $2,000 bankroll. Kelly multiplier isn't something you need to fully understand at this point, but what that means is that not every positive EV bet is created equal. We're saying we're going to be a $20 unit better, which means that our average bet size should be about $20 for every bet we place, but as I mentioned, not every single positive EV bet is created equal. So, let's head back over to the positive EV tool, and I'll show you exactly what I mean. Now, depending on the odds range of your EV filters, you'll see the recommended bet size change. Right now, I have my EV filter set at -200 odds to +200 odds. If we were to clear that out and include all odds range, we'll see plays like a +1200 odds play with a player to go over a stolen base. Now, this has a 15% edge over the market, but it's +1200 odds, so I don't want to risk a typical unit on this because it's very improbable to happen. This is why Odds Jam now factors in my $2,000 bankroll, my $20 unit size is going to tell me just put $5 down on this play. It's still a great positive EV play because we can see MGM is offering this at +1200 when other books have this at nearly half the odds at +630, +641, and we're getting incredible value over at MGM at +1200. However, as I mentioned, it doesn't mean it's guaranteed to hit. This bet only has an 8.9% chance. That's the probability of this bet hitting, which means it's a little bit unlikely, so we're not going to put our full bankroll down on it.

[00:10:40]Instead, we're going to unit manage.

[00:10:42]We're going to follow what Kelly Criterion does, and it's going to tell us that we should only be putting $5 down on this bet based off of the size of our bankroll. Now, if you were somebody who didn't want to follow a set bankroll or a set unit size, you may have $2,000 in your betting account, you see a big EV play, and you want to put $50 down on it. Well, again, this only has an 8.9% probability of happening, so if you put $50 down on it, all of a sudden, you're out a couple percent of your total bankroll off of a play that you really should have put $5 down on.

[00:11:14]This is why practicing bankroll management and having a system where you know exactly how much you want to place on each bet you're taking is so important. If you don't follow bankroll management, your bankroll will be eaten up after a couple losses, and you will not be set up for long-term success.

[00:11:30]Now, if you guys do want to use the same software that I used in this video, you guys can get on OddsJam today and when you use promo code takes, OddsJam will give you a 7-day free trial and 35% off your first month. So, you can truly test out their tools and see if it's right for you. If you take one thing away from this video, let it be this. Winning long-term in sports betting has nothing to do with being a genius. It has nothing to do with knowing more sports than everyone else. Winning long-term simply comes down to three things.

[00:11:58]Getting the best number, betting with an edge, and staying disciplined. If you can do these three things consistently, you're already ahead of 95% of people.

[00:12:07]And once you're on that side, that's when sports betting can actually become profitable. If you want to start doing this the right way, we'll link the tools that I used in this video in the description of this episode. What we went over in this video are the easiest ways to start finding edges immediately and quickly become a profitable sports better.