Why Deepak Shenoy Is Betting On India When Everyone Else Is Worried

Ajouté : 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]the smile on the faces because you know at the end of the day you have to smile no matter what happens. Look at the nifty right now. Let's just pull up the nifty as we're going into that close.

[00:00:08]It's >> I mean now it's it's even worse. It's a 400point downtake. I'm not sure what's happening. Is this the Msei rebalancing?

[00:00:16]Is this a concern about monsoon? Tough to say tough to say. We'll ask that question to Deepak Chinoi, CEO of Capital Mind Mutual Fund and El Jen of Central Broking for joining us on the this leg of the show. But gentlemen just just stay on for another minute or so because I just want to go across to Pune for our bull versus bear section and this is a segment where we take a stock and we give you both sides of the story.

[00:00:39]Uh PG Electroplast seems like a good candidate for it today because it started low results were disappointing.

[00:00:46]They have decided not to give any guidance but the stock is still 1% up.

[00:00:50]What are the two ways of looking at this stock? Pun.

[00:00:53]>> Well, that's right. It's one of those perfect candidates because there's a lot of commentary made by the management uh in yesterday's corn call as well as what brokerages make of it as well. So, as you rightly mentioned, profits down 55% missed the FI26 guidance for both revenue and profits and no guidance for FI27 as well. So, that's the first bare case. But the management is expecting to target a better than industry growth in FI27. Now for industry FI26 was down 15%, PG Electro blast was up almost 5% odd at this point of time or so but not too much in terms of what the expectation was. So that is the first key aspect to watch. The other aspect that will be negative for the company in FI27 that they are expecting the AC business to have lower margins than FI27. So FI25 margins were at 10.7 fell to 8.4 and now will consolidate at 8%.

[00:01:47]So that might be the other kicker uh you know in terms of the profitability impact in FI27. But in the other aspect uh you know the washing machine business uh let's go across to the previous slide again because the washing machine business is starting to take some pace now. So 52% growth in FI26, 30 to 35% expected in FI27 as well. But they will have to watch out for the margin especially on commodity cost in forex and that is the third key one because inventory was one of the biggest issues for the company in FI26. You saw that 20% stock fall post quarter 2 results last year and they've expected that 1600 K inventory continues to be very high at the end of quarter 4 but the guidance is very very strong year and hence the bull versus bear candidate expecting it to fall to 900 kores by the end of quarter 1 so June end is what the expectation it'll be something to watch out for if they achieve it or not and finally in terms of compressors big costing for the companies and AC makers if they are able to do that Expectation is by Q4 of FI27.

[00:02:49]The plant comes on stream but for this year it will be a tough earnings. 16 to 18% estimates have already been cut in FI27. So this is more of a FI28 story and hence an ideal bull versus bare candidate for today.

[00:03:02]>> All right. All right. Thanks so much Punit for that and for laying those uh scenarios out for us. Deepak Shinoi uh question to you. We're seeing the nifty50 at the low point of the day down 1.6 1.7%. Is this the Msei rejig? Does it present opportunities?

[00:03:20]>> Well, I guess uh to some extent there is uh there is I mean possibly that but I don't know what the answer to that because the rupee is actually appreciating and uh it doesn't look like they're taking money off the table. So it may be individual stocks that they're um that they may be moving. uh I don't believe that uh you know if the rupee is uh appreciating at the same time that you're seeing such a damage in the index that it could primarily be uh uh an index rebalance. Uh it could be part of it but uh you know uh a steep fall that has happened in the last uh say 1 hour or half an hour maybe you know some players some key players looking to um uh uh you know either exit their positions or something. It's the last trading day of the month. It's also a little surprising that this happens now.

[00:04:12]But yeah, if it is a rebalance, that could be one way of explaining it. But honestly, my simple answer is I don't know. I don't know if it is this or that.

[00:04:21]>> I think that's that's that's fair and honest to say you don't know because actually who can ever guess what's happening in its entirety. We can only guesstimate. But the facts are that crude is below 93 Brent nearly at 92.

[00:04:35]Rupee has appreciated as you said Deepak. Um your results are not half bad especially in the broader markets right the small and midcap are doing fine uh and uh yes monsoon is weak but is that enough to worry is this maybe another tranch of fi selling taking place because of the msei rebalancing some nav adjustments you think in the mutual fund space as well >> um usually mutual funds don't trade at the last uh you know in the last day nowadays because uh um you know the TR requirements at the mutual fund level have ensured that our uh you know we have to report uh uh annualized brokerage and transaction charges on a daily basis right so it's it's almost like if you do trade today then your brokerage transaction charges of today will annualized and assumed to be uh what you will be charging for the whole year. So you will find some you know some mutual funds showing 40% or 50% uh TERS on a particular day. There's a BER which people haven't yet gotten into. So the TER is a slightly different measure.

[00:05:45]So it's possible that mutual funds most mutual funds don't even trade today. So uh to the extent that they would otherwise be supporting the market maybe they're not there. So that that might be uh one thing to you know look at. But uh I don't think it's an NAV rebalance thing at all. I uh I mean nobody would manually want to beat their Navy down at the last >> I know I know it just seems just wondering what's happening because look at the India VIX as well. Uh if if you really want to pull up all of the indicators if I look at Brent what's happening globally at one end that's fine. India VIX is about 8% up 7 and a half% up. So there seems to be some real concern there. Deepak this IMD prediction today the second uh number that they put out actually has brought down the monsoon rate from 92% to 90 for the season that's a big concern you think although that did happen in the morning you needn't have seen this kind of huge 250 point drop in the last 10 minutes as a result of it >> yeah I mean look I at at some point you see IMD predictions in the past there have been years in which the early predictions have been 90% and then they've gone back up to 95 96 of uh uh long-term averages. I think uh um this year particularly given it's a super Elino and there will there will be changes uh I believe uh we might see some surprises in these estimates going forward uh perhaps from too less to too much uh at some point. So they I mean I wouldn't pay that much credence to these numbers in terms of saying there's going to be a reduced uh uh agricultural output or or uh that we don't have the logistics uh changes that will support some of these uh imbalances. But yeah, I mean should this support a daily thing?

[00:07:38]I I really don't know. Uh it would have probably been um you know selectively towards some companies and not the others. uh not necessarily everyone suffers because of a bad monsoon. Uh I I I I don't know whether that's that has an impact. It does have a medium-term impact if it does affect agricultural output. But again there I feel it's little too early to call even now >> just be and let's remember that there is a significant uh portion of cropped area that is catered to by irrigation. uh and and so therefore 55% of the gross cropped area half half of the net zone area so there is a pretty substantial amount that is also taken care of by groundwater I I want to go to nles nles what do you make of the charts right now can you draw any conclusions from the intraday charts and and how do you position yourself at the end of the month at the start of the new one >> very good afternoon Alex good afternoon everyone uh well Alex in last couple of minutes of trade a sharp drop that we have seen looks like mainly because of the MSER rebalancing because historically we have seen that happens between 3 to 315 and that's what we are witnessing right now. Uh see the closing is not very good. If at all nifty closes below 23, 680 that's the 50-day moving average then that will be considered as a bad close but not expecting any major sort of correction because there are multiple supports in place. uh the important support that is placed at 20 20 uh 3,300. So that's an very important support to watch out for. Uh if at all uh we see any further decline from here, I think that could be a good opportunity uh to buy because uh we have seen the nifty has been more sort of a rangebound throughout the May series and similar to what we can expect in the June series as well. Uh so 24,000 is an important resistance, 23300 is an important support. So that's the range which is still intact as of now and the IVS once again have surged beyond 16 but on a broader scale it is very much in the comfortable level to what we have seen earlier at the level of 20. So 16 is still a comfortable level. uh Bank Nifty where we saw some bit of outperformance coming in today but once again we are witnessing some bit of selling pressure once again and it is uh likely to end near about this 50day as well as 21-day moving average both are placed exactly at 54,500 so closing from a closing perspective both for Nifty and Bank Nifty is very important that they should defend their respective support from an inter perspective >> okay now what is the MS just just pull up that those those lines on MSEI rebalancing because various estimates on how much is the outflow for MSEI 7 to 8,000 crores is part of it. So is this huge um outflow of money what we're seeing and then my question is that is this an opportunity then for domestic investors to come in. So remember India's weight in the MSEI standard index has not changed that much. It's from 12.4 to 12.3%. And those outflows are happening today. Uh we have some of those inclusions but that overall figure is estimated at 7 to 8,000 cr rupees. I I mean I'm wondering uh nil is this this is an adjustment more than anything else. It's because Indian markets are so vulnerable right now that you've seen this huge nearly 400 point drop on the nifty. Um is this an opportunity to buy?

[00:11:09]uh well absolutely it's an opportunity but uh I don't I will not advise to jump and buy right now because uh you have a weekend ahead right so better strategy would be to wait for a Monday opening and see the global markets as well as of now the global picture is looking stable brand is in a is comfortable level dollar index is near about $99 USD and I have also cooled off from the highs of 96.96 so and even if you see in the US market which is trading at alltime highs so the broader picture in the global market is not that worrisome as of now looks stable and this is if this is happening merely because of the MSER rebalancing I think that's an opportunity and if you get nifty towards 23 400 23 300 I think that's a very good entry point in term of uh you know start making investment uh from a fresh perspective so better wait for uh some more time maybe uh on Monday morning you'll get a better picture but I believe uh this a very good opportunity >> Monday morning might be too eight you might get a better picture but it might I mean Deepak for anyone who's uh in the business of long-term investments are you looking at these opportunities and finding them lip smacking or are you now feeling a little concerned about what happens next because think about it for the first time we are as close to a solution in the state of hormones than we've been in weeks Brent I'm not I'm not saying Brent is back below 90 but it's it's way off >> yeah I mean long-term bullishness is is uh a given here because I think uh India will do well in the longer term.

[00:12:42]However, uh I mean these short-term imbalances will happen. We are supposed to get volatility in the these are markets. They're supposed to move 1 2% you know uh randomly at any time. We just didn't get a period of a lot of this for a long time but now it's more common and I think uh that is what has uh uh perhaps surprised us. But in general a 1% fall does not present a big opportunity. If you look at the own your own I mean the the the numbers that you were looking at there's a bank that was supposed to see 19x of its volume being sold today let us say but it's uh that bank was flat or almost up. So it's not even that uh you know the flows because of this rebalance have caused uh uh this kind of damage. It's difficult to predict what it was but I uh generally feel that you know any drop in off in a stock that's forced selling that might be an opportunity and that's there in a lot of stocks even today and uh in other cases there there are stocks that are perhaps finding the right valuations because maybe they were overvalued in the past and coming down. So the the difference between those two will be the opportunities. So where you find that the prices are way below um uh uh requirements there'll always be opportunities. There will be other opportunities to not hold a stock after say certain fundamental changes or results or commentary that you might have seen. U not much of a change because of 1% fall. The market had fallen 5% I might have a more reasonable. I think if you look at it over uh the month, you might see a bigger number of fall. And you know, we should pull up the monthly chart for the nifty because it's it's been painful.

[00:14:24]But I get your point. today is maybe just one additional big pop that we're seeing.