Mortgage Rates SKYROCKET | FED RATE HIKES COMING

Added: 2026-05-24

[00:00:00]But in fact, the 401k plans that have become the primary source of retirement income for 60 million Americans were never designed to be retirement plans in the first place. They were created in the late 1970s as a savings plan and tax shelter for ordinary Americans. Welcome back to Real Estate Mindset. Mortgage rates explode, stagflation is back, and rate hikes are coming. Let's start the video by talking about the future rate hikes that are coming because we've been being promised for the last year that as soon as we have a new Federal Reserve chairman that they're going to start cutting interest rates, but we've been saying why would they do that when we have inflation. So, here is CME Fed Watch tool. This is going to tell us what the market expects. Now, I had to go to September and wait until I show you guys summer of next year. It's going to blow your mind. But I had to go to September to finally get kind of a more realistic rate hike. Now, I want you guys to understand when you're looking at this where we sit right now with the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate affects what the lenders can borrow for. But right now, we're sitting at 3.5 to 3.75, which means 350 basis points to 375 basis points. You guys see that right here. And look at this quarter basis point rate hike, 18% chance. And then half a basis point is 7% chance.

[00:01:20]But as I go through these dates, I want you to see this column right here start to completely disappear. So right now, again, 80% likelihood that we make it to September with no rate hike. Not rate cuts, rate hikes. You can see when we fast forward to October, it goes down to 76. And when I get to December, it's now under 50%, sitting at a likelihood of 48.8% 8% of the market thinking that there's going to be no rate hikes come December, but also over 50% of the market is saying there will be some type of rate hike, whether it's a quarter basis point right here or 50 basis points right here. Now, when we go to January of 2027, that drops down to 37%.

[00:02:03]Again, this is where we're at right now.

[00:02:05]And when I fast forward all the way to July of 2027, holy smokes, look at this.

[00:02:10]So, again, we're right here right now.

[00:02:12]So 20% chance there's going to be no rate cut, right? But look it 33% chance of a quarter basis point, 26% chance of a 50 basis point, 12% chance of a 75 basis point, and 3% chance of a full rate hike on the federal funds rate by roughly this time next year. That's crazy. Do you guys see the writing on the wall? Now, take a look at this as well. I'm going to show you guys that they're already manipulating the mortgage markets because of the relationship with the 10-year and mortgage rates. So, right now, first of all, the 10-year is sitting at close to 4.6%.

[00:02:48]And I'm going to need you to remember this because when we look at the three-year trend of the 10-year Treasury, look at the last time we were at about 4.6 was January 19th of 2025.

[00:02:59]So, I'm going to show you what residential mortgage rates should be if it was not for the quantitative easing that's taking place through Fanny May and Freddy Mack. Now, as far as residential mortgage rates right now for conventional mortgages, which is on the upper left, that's over 6.5% sitting at 6.65%.

[00:03:15]Meanwhile, the FHA is well over 6% now, sitting at 6.17. But here's also what I want to show you. When we take a look at residential mortgage rates during January 16th of 2025 when the 10-year Treasury was close to what it is right now, remember you guys, mortgage rates were over 7%. You can see it on your screen right there. So, that demonstrates there's a divergence. And where do you guys think that divergence is coming from? I'm going to tell you guys where it's coming from. It's coming once again from Fanny May and Freddy Mack. They're just doing quantitative easing differently than they did during the global financial crisis. Either way, here's what it would look like if you purchased a $400,000 house today with a 5% down payment over 30 years at today's rate of 6.65%.

[00:04:00]Now, I'm going to use a lower property tax than I have. Actually, more than half lower than what I have. My property tax rate is over 3%, but I'm going to use 1.5% homeowners insurance. I'm going to use 3500. We're going to act like it's not a new home because generally only new homes, you can get your homeowners insurance under $3,000 these days. PMI I'm using 0.55% and I'm not even counting HOA or maintenance. And we know that maintenance is generally higher than both property taxes and homeowners insurance. Nevertheless, it's going to put your payment if you bought a $400,000 house and put 20,000 down plus the thousands of dollars in closing cost. Your payment is going to be 34 roughly, right? Just an estimate, $3,400. But what I want you guys to look at is look at to the right of that. Look at how much it would cost you to invest in your house today over 30 years, not counting the ISD bonds. It would cost you $1.184 million. And odds are the value of your house is going to go down, not up, as you sit in this bag holding position.

[00:05:02]Now, before asking Mitch whether or not he believes Ray Dallio is a bum in a suit, let's listen to what he has to say first. almost anybody who's objective, they would say certainly you would not cut interest rates now, okay, you will lose your credibility. The Federal Reserve would lose its credibility particularly now almost at any time. And so I would say but beyond that um it's not the right way to have monetary policy given all things considered.

[00:05:30]>> He he should wait till when with the >> well you should you have a dual mandate, right? You're in a stagflationary period. We're in a stagflationary period. Do you think we are >> we are certainly in this inflationary period. Now how that transpires has a lot of parts to it but we certainly are in that and if you look at monetary policies by other countries you're not going to see them cutting. Okay. So you could whatever your benchmarks are you're not going to be inclined to cut uh the monetary policies. Not with today's um uh information.

[00:06:03]>> I wonder if by information he means debt. by today's debt standards, they can't cut because the fraud and the debt is the only thing that is preventing us from going into economic depression. But Mitch, my question for you, sir, is was that just some bum talking in a suit or do you think that he's got some really good points and maybe he's just talking to people that don't understand and cannot articulate the problem? What do you think about what he just said?

[00:06:28]>> Ray Dallio is legit. The problem is that in that particular sequence he was speaking in generalizations but given CNBC that kind of makes sense.

[00:06:40]I don't like the idea of not having specifics.

[00:06:44]So let's be specific. Fed funds rate let's call it for the sake of conversation by the end of next week 4.75%. At 200 basis points for Wall Street Prime that gives you 6.75.

[00:06:57]at 375 basis points to be able to borrow money when a borrower, commercial property owner, what have you, walks into a bank, that's now 10 and a half%.

[00:07:08]Rollover risk of an office building with 30% vacancy is probably going to add another 3% on top of that plus two layers of additional financing, first mortgage, second mortgage to take the risk. So we now have 12 to 13% cost of capital for 1.7 trillion give or take worth of real estate assets rolling over. Bottom line is that would kick the can down the road but the properties can't pay it. So you have a circular argument because the cash flow doesn't exist to pay for it. Ah now comes the Federal Reserve. So to keep 10year yields low, the Fed is going to have to start buying the paper. Can you imagine the Federal Reserve is going to have to step in to buy the paper? That would be suicide for the market to compete with the Federal Reserve because the risk of the yield is actually so great that the face value of the note, the 10-year Treasury, 5year Treasury, two-year Treasury, the risk is simply too high.

[00:08:12]You It'll take years of yield that you're going to lose on the face value of the Treasury. too much risk, it's suicide. So it causes a circular argument and that is where Radalio was correct. So your circular argument is not just stagflation but depreciation.

[00:08:31]And he doesn't want to scare anybody so he doesn't use that word. But when the Federal Reserve steps in to start buying that amount of paper, that's the signal that the market is clearly clearly not savable but for the Federal Reserve. The problem is the higher the cost of the money, the faster the depreciation comes in our direction. They're correlated.

[00:08:55]They're directly correlated.

[00:08:56]>> Having said that, Mitch, do you think based on what you just said, there's a likelihood that they're going to hike rates instead of cutting because we were sold he's going to cut rates? He said, I'm not I may not cut rates. I don't listen to the administration, but we were sold that. Do you think that he has the guts? Maybe he doesn't have a choice. I would say he doesn't have a choice. But do you think he's actually going to hike rates?

[00:09:19]>> The Fed put themselves in this box. I have zero sympathy for the Fed, but the reality is no. I do not see them cutting rates because the market won't put up with it. If you cut rates, inflation is going to run abnormally hot. If you think it's hot right now, let's call it 4% on the last clip. So, so you got six uh that was 6% on the CPI. So if you take that out 12 months, you're probably closer even at 6 per month give or take, you're probably running around 8%. If that statement is true, then what's going to happen? The Fed cannot lower the interest rates. A, B, the interest rates need to go up to offset the inflation.

[00:10:01]>> Well, that's my question to you. Will they hike? Do you think they have the courage to hike rates? I wouldn't be surprised if they sit still because President Trump obviously wants interest rates lower, which makes perfect sense.

[00:10:13]The lower the interest rates from the Federal Reserve, Fed funds rate, the lower the government's cost of borrowing, the easier it is to handle the deficit. Again, all these things are correlated. The problem is, I've said, we're going to wake up one day and the market's going to make the decision for the rest of the world, which is, can these treasuries be trusted? Can the debt at the school districts be trusted?

[00:10:39]Well, we already know the school district bonds are fraudulent. Well, what about the US treasuries? All these things are connected. Where's the money going to come from to pay for this?

[00:10:48]Well, I I have the answer of where it's been coming from. It's been coming from our future liberties and communities, which is a great segue now into talking about why they can't do anything and why the government has absolutely cooked us.

[00:11:04]They've taken away so much from us in the form of this debt. So, let's go over that now. And I figured we listen to Ray Dio just one more time because he's been making a bit of sense. Let's see if he makes a little bit more sense now when talking about the debt.

[00:11:19]>> It's urgent because we are on the brink of the supply demand. Just to put it in perspective, imagine you're running an enterprise, a company.

[00:11:29]>> Yeah. You're spending uh $7 trillion a year. You're taking in5 trillion.

[00:11:38]You have a $2 trillion deficit.

[00:11:41]You have a debt that's six times the amount of money that you're taking in.

[00:11:48]>> Wow.

[00:11:48]>> The interest on the debt is $1 trillion.

[00:11:52]>> Okay. That's 20% of all your spending and 50% of your deficit. And you can't cut the costs materially. You can't cut the cost because social security, all of these things are >> political.

[00:12:09]>> Okay. So, you have a real problem.

[00:12:13]You're at a juncture.

[00:12:15]>> I know.

[00:12:16]>> You're at a juncture where you have to borrow money to pay your costs.

[00:12:23]That means that that you're at this point where the as the debt then compounds on the debt and it's squeezing out. It's 50% of the deficit. So, it's going to squeeze out, you have a supply demand problem. So, if we go another year and a year after that, which is probable, it's probable that nothing materially will be done until after the midterm elections.

[00:12:50]You're going to then have a different set of circumstances. You have more debt that you have to compound. Still no plan to deal with that debt and you have a political situation. Should you have a recession, >> it worsens. All right, let's go under the hood now and see how much debt exactly the US is in and the trajectory of that debt. So, we start with the yearly deficit. So, this is what's added on to the debt that we have every single year. And the year's not over. This is going to April of 2026 and we're in roughly $1 trillion in deficit. A little bit less than that. And I don't believe they've even started refunding the tariffs. Now, as far as the trajectory, look at this guys. I mean, this is crazy. Here's the global financial crisis in 2009. In 2008, when we were already in recession, so again, we were already in recession. They didn't even touch a trillion. They didn't even touch that in deficit. Look it, it's less than half a trillion. And then after that they're like, "Whoa, this was really good for our CEOs and we got a lot of bonus right in here." So we're going to create something so that we all get filthy rich. And that's what you see here. Now, as far as the national deficit, we're close to $39 trillion as of right now. And I want to remind you guys that this mathematically mathematically cannot be paid back. I wonder if that's why they don't care about it anymore. Because if they only have a term of four years, then why would they care about this? Well, I have that answer because they're are true public servants is why. But once again, when we look at the trajectory, I mean, you can see I believe most people when they look at this chart, you can see the problem. You can see the problem. And mixed in here, guys, is apathy. When tragedy happens economically and we start losing our jobs, people just want to be saved. But in order to be saved, unfortunately, they take away our liberty to do that. Now, let's listen to one of our leaders, Jim Jordan, talk about fundamental facts. And when you guys are listening to this, is it wrong of me to say that I want our leaders to empathize with what Americans mom and pop are going through? Because I don't think he gets the message.

[00:14:58]>> Wouldn't do it, but this guy will.

[00:15:00]>> What about his promise in 2024 that if he was reelected, gas would be under $2 a gallon because of his policies?

[00:15:07]>> Well, gas prices were coming down until we had to deal with this situation. But, you know, the that's that's life. that's dealing with with world and the the the world we live in. I think the country gets the fundamental fact and I know I understand this. President Trump makes decisions that are in the best interest of our nation. 250 years, greatest country in history. He makes decisions that are going to help our country and the long-term security and safety of the people. He has the And I think you want a commander-in-chief like that. You want a commander-in-chief who's willing to do tough things that he knows are good for us, all of us, all of your viewers, everyone in this country, and frankly, everyone around the world. It is good if Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon.

[00:15:52]>> But if someone's listening to you and they were paying $2.98 a gallon of gas before the war started, and now they're paying $453.

[00:16:00]I mean, saying that's life might not, you know, make them feel better.

[00:16:04]>> Those are those are your words. Those are your words, not mine. I'm I'm saying >> you said This is the situation. This is the situation.

[00:16:12]>> Listening to that, Mitch didn't give me a lot of confidence in our leaders to do what's really best for Americans because if they would, they would explain why the atrocities that are happening here.

[00:16:22]Like, why is everything so expensive?

[00:16:24]Why are you taking our money and doing things that we didn't vote on you to do specifically? So, it is personally it's frustrating. Mitch, maybe you can go into what we just listened to, but is there really a way for us to, let's just say, help the government stop spending so recklessly? Is there a way to help us stop the government from spending so recklessly? They have to know how to balance a checkbook before they're even allowed anywhere near an office. That's at all state levels and federal level.

[00:16:57]The bottom line is they have run a muck and Ray Dallio is right with regard to the deficit. But there's another method to reduce the debt. And when I say the debt, there's a difference between legitimate debt and fraudulent debt. So bankruptcy of the school districts and the related fraudulent bonds is 5.1 trillion that I'm quite certain via executive order. both of which school districts and the school district bonds can be flushed down the toilet via executive order from the White House because it could be seen as a national emergency just simply due to the fraud, the scale of the fraud. But I want to point out that's not even part of the US national debt. So once step one, which is quantifiable, the school district bond debt is taken care of, the bonds terminated, and the interest on those bonds terminated, well then you now have clarity on how to deal with step two. See, the issue is even where Jim Jordan was going that he didn't articulate, the cost of everything being so expensive and the inflation is due to fraud. When you print money, it is a de facto default.

[00:18:16]Why do they print money? Well, they want to hide what it is that they have been doing for well over 20 years, which is you print money in order to cover off the deficit. The school districts did it with mom and pop, using mom and pop's house as a collateral and mom and pop's income to pay for their fraudulent bonds. It all must be terminated.

[00:18:39]Step one, take care of the school districts and the bonds. Step two, you now have the process documented via executive order on how to go after the other elements of fraud that have been created. When you think about Minnesota, just for the sake of conversation, and all the frauds that are now surfacing there, and all the frauds that are now servicing in California, why is it that those bonds that were created on the backs of those situations using real estate tax dollars aren't immediately wiped off the face of the earth? There are people who participated in the fraud that still get a yield because they invested in the bonds.

[00:19:20]Sorry, you bought bonds that are fraudulent. You didn't do your due diligence. You lose. That is the normal course of business. That is what must happen. Kicking the can down the road, printing more money at a federal level to backs stop the acquisition of more bonds, i.e. the Federal Reserve buying more paper, US treasuries is eventually going to fail. It will end up as the ly republic. You're much better off. Take the hit where it's quantifiable. The 5.1 trillion is quantifiable. Take the hit. It's not going to affect that many people on the larger scheme of things. No doubt some people will get hurt. But the bottom line is it must be done because there is no other method. Kicking the can down the road will create the Wymer Republic.

[00:20:09]That's the math. To those that think that this will be seen as a default, yeah, no it won't. Printing money is the default. Get rid of the fraud. Then you can back the US currency with precious metals or or a basket precious metals and commodities. Now you've got credibility and you've got debt that's manageable. Right now this is completely out of control and it's going to get worse. Now as we go into the advocacy segment of this video, I got to use a little bit of a code words because YouTube has been destroying our advocacy efforts. So, if you guys can support the advocacy efforts by sharing this, liking it, hyping it, that would go a long way.

[00:20:48]So, please make that a goal, help the channel survive, but I have to be careful. And I'm going to use a code word. You know, I got you guys know I like to fish. So, I'm just going to use the word hook, okay? And you guys could understand what I'm trying to tell you when I use the word hook. I can't use the entire word because I'll get in trouble. But I'm about to show you that a hook, fishing hook, actually is the nexus, including the software, to a superintendent, police chief, appraisal district, and bonds. I can't wait to talk to you guys and show you guys that. But first, let's listen one more time to our leaders. And I'm not getting political, but I think it's important for us to understand where our leaders are at with this whole cost of living crisis. I would assume I'm in Beijing. If I wanted to buy property near one of their military installations, I don't think President I don't. Look, it's not that I love it.

[00:21:46]You want to see farm prices drop. You want to see farmers lose a lot of money, just take that out of the market. But they've had a lot of land for a long time. Obama did nothing about it. They bought a lot of it during the Obama administration.

[00:22:02]He did nothing about it. As far as the students, it's 500,000 students. They come, good students. Uh I could tell them I don't want any students is a very insulting thing to say to our country.

[00:22:20]They would then immediately go out and start building universities all over China. But if you don't have those students, good students by the way, if you don't and and we do another thing, you know, if they're good and they want to stay in America, we we won't give them a green card and things like that.

[00:22:35]Um, you know, I and that not only them but other other countries, but if you want to see a university system die, take a half a million people out of it.

[00:22:45]And you know, the ones that won't be hurt are the top schools. the top schools will do fine, but your lower schools, your lower uh the ones that don't do quite as well, those two, they'll be dying all over the place. Uh I frankly think that it's good that people come from other countries and they learn our culture and many of them want to stay here. I think it's good. Um not everybody agrees with me and it doesn't sound like a very conservative position >> and I'm as conservative. I'm a conservative guy. I'm I'm really a common sense guy. I think more than a conservative guy. I think MAGA is common sense. You know, uh people understand we want strong borders, we want strong military, we want good education, we want low interest rates, we you know, we want but but I think people would argue they worry about do they have nefarious >> Sure. I know. And we worry about that.

[00:23:34]And honestly, you know, they do things to us or we do things to them. It's it's um it's a very very fine line. So, I wanted you to understand that ain't no one coming to help you except for you.

[00:23:49]And if no one's helping you in your own community, then no one's going to help.

[00:23:52]I got to tell you guys that I'm fighting right now. Seven different municipalities. And I'm almost doing it with just Mitch and I, just two of us guys. Seven different municipalities in two different states. If I can do it, you can do it. Now, if you want to see what we're doing, I have a brand new advocacy Substack. It's absolutely free.

[00:24:10]As you guys know, everything we do on advocacy is free because we want to make a change. Now, it's right here. If you go to real estate mindset substack, it's titled municipal takeover. And essentially, I sent in an open records request to God ISD because it seems that the superintendent might be up to no good. So, I requested communications between him and a hook, fishing hook, if you guys know that, who's probably going to be in prison here uh pretty soon. Uh they've been arrested. But here's what I found. You guys can come back here. It's actually like 10 pages now because I have so much in this last substack, including the victory in Conro, the landslide victory. But here's what this says. Okay, what this does and doesn't show. Okay, a now charged defendant treated which is the hook. Get it? The now charged defendant treated the superintendent as a trusted political confidant since June 2023 and onward.

[00:25:02]Well, why would a hook and why would how's this number two? She told him, the hook did to the superintendent in the ISD. She told him that she did not want certain things on paper and offered an alternative email channel. That's very interesting, especially because they're under arrest for racketeering as well.

[00:25:21]She referenced ongoing coordination with now charged former police chief in messages to the superintendent. Why would the superintendent what? All right, next thing. He placed her on the districts. No way. Okay, I'm gonna Excuse me. It it still hits me when I read my own work here. He placed the hook, fishing hook, understand on the district bond planning committee three months after she described cultivating bond opponents. Like Kayla, you guys have been watching what's been going on.

[00:25:53]Kayla is in these files. This is absolutely insane. Next thing, she filed multiple district complaints against a sitting trustee. Hey, Kayla. and asked the district to act against that trustee. She asked the superintendent, this is one of the crazy one. You guys got to check this out. This is so crazy.

[00:26:10]And I have the raw documents as well here. So, if you want to look at the raw documents, help her conceal her husband's identity from the trustes social circle. I bring that up because isn't this what Mitch said from the very beginning about two years ago? Not quite two years ago when he first started talking to us. Isn't this exactly what he said? like property taxes and like ISD bonds like fund criminal organizations and like something like that. Well, I'm going to tell you guys what I've learned since then is how to bulldoze down corruption because we got to remember the people can subpoena. We have subpoena power to audit our government and anyone that's associated with it, including teachers and firefighters, anyone that you guys think is corrupt, we could find out real well by sending an open records request. So Mitch, if you can, if you want to comment on that, please do. But please also, you know, just tell the viewers why our work is so important. And maybe if you can, can you go into a little bit about where the trajectory of what we're doing is going? We as a society cannot let the criminals off the hook, pun intended. There simply is no defense for a chief appraiser and a school district superintendent violating dozens of laws and not being held accountable. These laws they have admitted to violating. Their actions prove the violations of law. There's no defense for the Supreme Court of Texas issuing a oneword denied to stop a case with proven evidence from being adjudicated. We can't let those who claim to be in charge to be in charge without law. And the courts exist to prohibit chaos.

[00:28:03]Well, the inverse of that statement is that chaos will occur if the courts don't do their job. That in essence is what it is that we are doing. We have recognized it. I saw this coming in 2016.

[00:28:17]It just so happens it's all being proven out because now it's not just me pounding the table. Now there's other mathematicians. Now Travis on behalf of Mama Pop is bringing this to the forefront using the ORS.

[00:28:33]I did it using the Freedom of Information Act that other mathematicians have pulled apart and verified the existence of hidden vote distortion logic. Once you see that map, you realize how deep this goes because there are people who are in office at the school districts who are there by fraudulent elections. You cannot give an opportunity to fraudsters to profit by not paying attention and saying, "Well, somebody else will handle it for me."

[00:29:02]No, that's not what advocacy is. And that's not the responsibility of everybody else around you. That's your responsibility as a society, as a person in that society. You have to play an active role as best you can. It was a interesting saying, who's watching the watchers? And in this particular case, where we are with the Supreme Court of Texas right now, the answer is nobody.

[00:29:27]Which means we're probably going to have to take this up to the Supreme Court of the United States. As I said, what the Supreme Court of Texas did is unconscionable. It is illegal. They violated the Constitution of the United States of America and it is not acceptable.

[00:29:42]>> And just one more time, I want you guys to understand what's been going on with me and the channel. I am fighting seven different municipalities right now. So, if you can help us save the channel, I would appreciate that. We have a mechanism to donate. You don't have to donate. Just by watching it this far, you're helping. But, you know, either that or learn to fight with us. Please learn to fight with us or share the video, like it, hype it. But one thing is for sure, we need your help. And all we're asking you to do is to stand up and follow us into battle. Now, having said that, guys, if you're out there just trying to figure out what's going on in life, so am I. So is everyone else. We wish you luck and we help you