Trump’s Economy Numbers Are Getting Ugly

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:16]This is the left hook. And I'm going to do something ridiculous because the AI gods on Substack uh just trim like now the beginning of conversations unless you do this. So this is a trick that Glenn Kersner taught me. Let's see if it works. 5 4 3 2 1. Hey, uh this is the left hook and I have returning to the fantabulous Substack, super nerd, and I say that as a sincere uh compliment, G.

[00:00:43]Elliot Morris, you know him, you love him. He has a fantastic book and a Substack called Strength and Numbers.

[00:00:49]So, if you want to actually have good old-fashioned data and research and then make some educated, informed opinions based off that, Elliot's your guy. And uh the timing is fantastic because just u I think yesterday last night he posted like just I mean horrific polls for Donald Trump. There's an article which I'm about to share in the chat right now and for those who are watching later I'm going to link to it called Americans blame Trump for the cost of living crisis. Here's what they want done about it. So here's the polls on where Trump is on everything. the polling on what Americans blame Trump for, what they want him to do about it, and how this helps uh Democrats, and also a trap. So, we'll get all into it, but uh Elliot, uh it's it's 2026, uh May 28th. There's still an unwinable war uh in Iran. Gas prices are high, grocery prices are high. Uh Donald Trump's trade war has yielded no major deals. He promised to reduce inflation. Inflation's almost at 4%. Uh a majority of Americans last time we we talked about two months ago were like, "Hey, we're having tough times making ends meet." And that was before they got hit with uh this boomerang as a result of the war. Talk to us about the polls in general when it comes to Americans and their favorability and support for Donald Trump, the individual.

[00:02:05]>> Well, I will watch, but uh thanks for having me on. Let me just first show you something. Last time we talked, you showed me your nice Star Wars Legos above you. Oh god, you can barely see this. Wait. Okay. Oh, it's not really focused. This Can you recognize this shape and color?

[00:02:20]>> Is that the uh man? Is that >> the BB8? BB.

[00:02:25]>> Ah, the BB-8.

[00:02:26]>> Maybe.

[00:02:27]>> It's I I don't mean to totally derail over the nery. Let's see if turning off background focus works. There it is.

[00:02:34]>> We see it.

[00:02:35]>> Well done.

[00:02:35]>> There it is. Okay. So, um, look, if you are like the the the the problem for Donald Trump right now, um, is that voters don't like him and they don't like what he's doing.

[00:02:46]And this is like this only becomes more apparent the more stuff he does and the more public credit he takes for the stuff he does. So like it's actually a pretty simple it's actually a pretty simple problem in the grand scheme of things in the sense that like if you are Donald Trump right now if you want to get your numbers up all you have to do is like betray uh your your entire party and your political agenda and to do anything else than what is what he is doing and voters will like you again. Um but obviously he he wouldn't do that. So um let me just like give you a couple of examples of this. So in our in our survey um my survey is strengthened numbers and veracite. When I say our it's because veracite the polling firm that actually does the surveying of people I just write the questions and the results. Um we ask approval of like 12 different policies from prices to crime and border security or issue areas not necessarily policies. Okay. Donald Trump is underwater on literally every issue we ask 11 out of 12. um except for border security where he is, drum roll please, dead even. Okay, dead even. So, um that is like not the position you want to be in. But worse than that, his numbers on prices and inflation, the issue that everyone says is most important to them right now or 39% of voters say is most important to them right now. Uh he's at minus 47 and that's about twice as bad uh or about 20 points lower than than it was at January, the beginning of this year. And if you just scroll down to the next chart, you can see like why this is a real problem for him. Um, more and more people are saying prices and inflation.

[00:04:22]Uh, oh, you're in the wrong art. You're in a different article, not necessarily the wrong one. The the point is that uh the share of Americans who are saying that prices is most important to them has gone up from like 30% last year already really high to like 40% now. So the trend >> in other words is not >> here for a second because this is stunning, right? So the number one issue for Americans is cost of living the economy. So on prices slash and inflation which are doomed in Biden's presidency -47 health care top five issue always -28 jobs in the economy - 255 foreign policy -23 government funding social programs -22 elections democracy -22 trade with other countries -21 education hey19 at least it's not -20 uh now this is what's so fascinating I think if I was a Republican I'd be really worried. I mean, I'd be worried about everything else, but he had uh Elliot these strong planks, right? These are like the pillars where Republicans just crush uh uh Democrats. So, deportation, public safety, border security. He's negative double digits on everything and barely like what is that like a zero flat line on border security, >> right? Yeah. And if I can just like take over the screen share for a second, I'll show you the >> part. Let me get out. You take over.

[00:05:45]Sure. Um, I'll show you the partisan breakdown here, like which which party American trusts more to handle all these issues. And there's a couple things to call out. First, o like overall, as you can see, the mass of opinion is trusting Democrats more across issues on eight out of 12 of them to be exact. Um, so like on average, the issue that Americans are thinking about tends towards the tends towards the Democrats.

[00:06:11]And this is even worse once you pull out the things that people say is most important to them, which and this is what I was trying to show you earlier.

[00:06:17]Prices and inflation and then like elections and democracy. Those issues are right are right here. Elections and democracy D plus 10. Prices and and inflation D plus 10. For jobs in the economy, D plus 8. So that's the result you get when you ask Americans which party do you trust more to handle you know insert issue here. Um so that is the first thing to call out. The second thing to call out is look at the immigration the deportation numbers.

[00:06:41]These are basically even, right? They're within the margin of error of being even or maybe slightly Republican leaning if you're like really squinting. Okay, I went back and look at the compare comparative numbers from this point into the 2024 campaign. Donald Trump before the 2024 election had a 15 percentage point lead on immigration and deportations and border security like combined. So combining these, he's moved like 10 points, the country has moved like 10 points away from him on those issues that he won the last election on, including prices in the economy. Um, so actually on prices in the economy, it's more like a 20 point shift on partisan trust. So that's the second thing. And the third thing, this is a question that we ask and we and I don't think any other pollster asks this. Instead of like giving people an issue to pick from, we ask them straight up, which party do you trust more to handle the issue that is most important to you. So whatever issue that is and that's D plus 13. Um Gallup has asked this question historically. It's a perfect predictor of election outcomes like uh directionally. Whoever whichever party leads on this number always has won their elections historically. So Donald Trump the Republicans led this number by like two points in 2024. Democrats at D plus 13. That's like obvious wave election territory. So when I joined your call and I was like the problem with Donald Trump is that he's Donald Trump. I'm not being I'm not trying to be too flippant. Like the problem is that voters don't want a Republican, you know, policy agenda of mass deportations and like economic harm to fund the like wallets of their billionaire donors. That's just a fact.

[00:08:13]And this is these are the numbers that you get when that is the fact. And and you also have this and let me now we'll go back and forth. Um because I think this is really interesting as well because >> oh we're just having a screen share off.

[00:08:28]>> We're going to do share off. Uh uh well I like yours but here's mine. This is where I think you just you I mean no matter like you know you had this comment I believe in this article about you can't jerrymander your way out of this. I mean I know they are and they're going to try it. But if nearly half of Americans say their personal finances are worse than Trump, and that number then is 61% of Americans are worried about their household finances. And you know, Elliot, looking at the trends, I hope I'm wrong, but we're just going to be practical here. Things aren't going to get better. I mean, we also had the Trump administration openly say that by 20 in 2027, folks, uh gas prices are still going to be high and this war is still ongoing and we're now going to get, you know, food shortages and energy shortages. You're already seeing it hit the Asia Pacific. It's only a matter of time that it really really hits us. Um groceries topped the list of household financial stressors. So grocery and food instead of going down, it's gone up.

[00:09:21]He's broke a fundamental promise not just to his base but to America. Right.

[00:09:25]Three promises uh Elliot that I think uh you know if you can talk about which I which I've seen in the past two months that have really kind of hemorrhaged him in support is he said trust me you know vote for me inflation will go down kindly we'll be better. Exact opposite has happened. Uh, number two, no more forever wars, Iran war, and as a result of that, like a$150 more on gas, and then three, I'll release the Epstein files, and he never will. Um, how how how can you turn it around? I don't see it.

[00:09:54]>> You Yeah, you don't. If if you if your policy is responsible for increasing gas prices by 60%. Or even if they just go up, sorry, not 60, 50%, I I'll be generous. even if they go up 50% as we saw under uh under Joe Biden and it's not your fault voters still punish you for that and what what the political science says and what you know predictive models for election forecasts find is that um voters will like form those their opinions of how the president is handling issues and then they will hold on to them um they don't necessarily change them or update them with new information. So, for example, in 2024, when inflation comes down from like 10 to 3% or whatever, whatever uh it was maybe like 9 to three, depending on what goods you're looking at, Joe Biden doesn't get credit for that. The party loses the election. His his approval rating does not recover as price as prices stop increasing as much.

[00:10:54]Um, so even if things do get better on like the gas price front, which or the the price of gasoline, I I want to be precise here. I'm not talking about liqufied natural gas for like the oil heads there. I'm talking about oil and gasoline. Um, even if we do get a bunch of shipments of oil and gas out of the straight or hormuz if like >> the war ended tomorrow and they just started shipping gas again, which by the way it's not clear they can do because lots of those refineries are damaged or destroyed. Um, it's going to take weeks like nine weeks or so to ship that oil to America. It's going to take weeks then to refine it if it hasn't been refined already. Um, and then uh in theory, right, in in the Trump administration's theory, voters will just like give him credit for that. We know from political sciences they won't.

[00:11:40]So, there's really like there's really like no way out of this. Uh, and it's and it's his fault and it's totally fair. And and also, I want to go back because uh speaking about it's it's uh people it's Americans are are thinking this. This is fascinating. 41% of Americans say Trump and his administration are most responsible for the cost of living problem. And then you say, "Well, okay, what about other folks?" And then you say only more than two and a half times the share who blame Biden. So Biden gets 16% of the blame. Uh 11% of the blame goes to corporations and co CEOs. 8% of the blame goes to Democrats. So it's clearly it's it's Trump. Like like look at this red red line, folks. like the uh the majority of Americans in this poll, well, most of the Americans, I mean, it's not even close. Uh you got 41% of Americans saying, "Oh, no, no, it's Trump and his administration." After he got in power, everything's gotten worse.

[00:12:34]>> And then if you actually scroll up to the chart right before that, and then >> there you go. Um and then actually I'll have you click on it because it'll get larger for people watching. uh you can see uh the percent of Americans who say they care about just inflation and the cost of living or gas or food, right?

[00:12:53]Just like prices on those core household goods, not even considering rent.

[00:12:57]>> Um I'm actually not very good at math on the fly, but let's just do this. 32 plus 38 70%. Right? Um that is all stuff you like that is inflation that is a direct result of Donald Trump's policy. uh and policy that he has claimed credit for, is still claiming credit for to this day on like national press conferences every single day. Okay, tariffs he say are a great success. They're going to make America great again. He says the war is necessary and uh he doesn't think about Americans household economic situation at all and the war is necessary. Like people have obviously connected um connected those two in their brain. And then yeah, if you add the other price related stuff here like housing or healthare um or retirement savings somewhat then you're at like >> you're like 80 90% of Americans and that's what they say just to be clear this was a question we asked um in your own words what is the single biggest economic worry on your mind right now and that is what they gave and then you if you ask Americans you were showing this earlier like what is your single biggest household stressor in terms of your or um what is the thing that's contributing most to your financial stress in your household? So not the economy in abstract like you as a person in your house they say the same thing gas you know utilities healthcare food groceries um all all things that are that are you know costs are being inflated for that as a direct result of Donald Trump's Donald Trump's policy.

[00:14:27]Um, if you like go to the University of Michigan sentiment, I'm not telling you to do this on screen right now, but you go to the University of Michigan's sentiment index, and you look at expected inflation over the next year, it was like 2% in November 2024. Yeah, those numbers have shot up to like I I don't know, they've gone up like five or 6x at least um since uh since Donald Trump took took back the White House. They were up a lot after the uh liberation day tariffs last April and they've been up a lot over the past 3 months because of the war in Iran. Um it's like very easy for Democrats to tell a causal story here. You you never want to be in the position as the party in power or at least someone can tell an easy causal story about your presidency being the cause of bad effects. And that is you know that is the situation he's in. And and this is also an interesting situ uh speaking about the situation that he's in. Uh I really like this because we could talk about okay uh everything is bad. Uh things suck. Uh but you also have you know it's a great article. Um and I'm going to actually there you go. What what people actually want. Can you share that what people actually Well, go ahead. First >> these are just those inflation expectations I was talking about. So from like 3 to 7%. Um yeah >> just cuz I have the receipts. Uh yeah, and then I mean the numbers don't lie because this is just consistent across the board, folks. And I I've se you know when you talk about what voters want before we get there, uh you know, I guess I you could talk about vibes, but you also like the numbers, but I'm looking at numbers, polls, data, vibes, sentiment, travel. I'm combining it all together. Um the last two and a half months, 3 months, I I just sense something. Uh I think the the overall pain that people had in America with the rising income inequality, right? We came out of the pandemic, people punished Biden perhaps unfairly, but that's how it works, right? It they weren't feeling uh the recovery, so you blame the president. But then you get Donald Trump, you get this unnecessary, useless trade war that he's claimed credit for that yielded no deals where majority of the tariffs as we as anyone who knows anything about economics, the tariffs are taxes paid by the consumer. Uh and then on top of that, you had the war for the past 3 months, a direct impact on gas prices already. You have rising income inequality already. People are working in the gig economy just to get by. As that's happening, Donald Trump uh and his just today, ProPublica did a fantastic piece of just naked, shameless conflict of interest where Don Jr. got this massive contract. Uh he's wasting this money on a ballroom. He's wasting the money on the reflecting pool. He's wasting money on a UFC arena. As all this is happening, people are struggling. They can't, like you said, make their ends meet. And then you have the oligarchs saying, "All right, we're going to make money no matter what.

[00:17:11]you're going to go to China with them and f you. Uh we're going to go all in on AI and we're going to literally just build data centers and oh, we don't have any money. Oracle said, "Okay, I'm just going to fire 35,000 people to build this AI data center." I'm sure you've seen the polls. Uh over 75% of Americans hate data centers, right? So, I see something just building in the last 2 3 months where it it it's come to a point where a majority of Americans are like, I'm done. I'm not just done against Trump, but I'm also done against the corporations, the billionaires, taxis, mother efforts. I I feel it in the air, but who am I? I'm just going off of vibes and and you know, the accumulation of data that I collect. You're actually the data nerd. Your take on this uh app appraisal, my appraisal of where we are in this country. Well, in the survey we we just published, we also asked Americans if they favored or opposed spending a billion dollars of taxpayer money on the ballroom on the security enhancements right for Trump's ballroom.

[00:18:10]Um, which was in in the government funding bill until senators took it out like right after we published this poll.

[00:18:16]Uh, 68% of Americans said they opposed it and 21% said they favored it. Um, actually 21% is like a pretty bad number for supporting Trump. Usually it's around 35. So that itself is somewhat of a negative indicator. But then if you look at this at the partisan level and uh we'll just do a little share screen again. Um only 44% of self-described Republicans said that they they supported that and uh about the same said that they opposed it. These numbers are basically tied. So if even your coalition is saying they wouldn't support this like obviously very unpopular and um also really uh like probably normatively bad use of taxpayer dollars um then like you're you're on the wrong side. And just to connect this, right, I think this is kind of emblematic of Donald Trump's broader struggle with the presidency right now, which is everyone around him is egging him on on the unpopular stuff.

[00:19:21]>> Steven Miller and the other policy advisers in the White House are egging him on on immigration. Actually, there's reporting that he has said to them that they went too far on immigration, which is, you know, which is a huge which is like huge in terms of like progress persuading people against the deportation agenda. Um, and then yeah, the as you call them, the brollearchs are like egging him on in terms of uh tax cuts for for the rich, redistribution of wealth upwards. The OBBA in our survey was also unpopular by like 65 70% to 25% last year. And this is just a recurring theme. He's like constantly on the side of the smallest group of voters, billionaires, um that like do does the most damage possible to the working and and middle class on basically everything except for the one policy that actually might increase after tax income for people, which is the no tax on tips. which economists have pretty resoundly said is also like a pretty stupid policy. Um, and you know, if you're cutting taxes on tips while also cutting Medicaid, you're still doing net harm to these people.

[00:20:33]So, >> and it's really interesting because he seems, you know, with these number like these numbers, you can't make this up.

[00:20:39]Like this is poll after poll after poll after poll. Um, and when you talk to him, well, I don't talk to him thankfully. I never want to talk to him.

[00:20:47]But when reporters ask him these questions, either he is lying and or uh being surrounded by sickopants who are giving him a different set of polls or a different set of reality like the emperor wears no clothes because to your >> No, he's not seeing he's not seeing different polls. Um Fabitzio Ward did a survey on cutting Medicaid. This is his pollster. Tony Fabitzio and the the p polling partner um they did a poll on cutting Medicaid for the OBBA last year and same result. They published this publicly like 75% of Americans opposed cutting Medicaid. That like Donald Trump saw that number in the Oval Office. Uh that's his post his pollster. He's doing it, you know, in like violation of the public will, willful violation of the public will for the benefit of of his donors and himself.

[00:21:35]>> And he just doesn't give a And folks, if you think it's just me being flippant here, just trust the evidence of your eyes and ears. about 2 weeks ago when he was asked right before he went to China, "How much do you think about the financial considerations and pain of Americans?" He said, "Not one bit. Not one bit." The cameras were on him. He just does. He's like sundowning. He's bunkering down. The billionaires don't care. To me, it looks like the hamburglers who are like, "You know what? Uh, they're rising up with the pitchfork. So, you know what we're going to do? We're going to take everyone's hamburgers and milkshakes and fries, and then we're just going to go to our bunker or our spaceship. What are you going to do about it?" And then uh folks, he was asked last week, "Hey uh these numbers are so bad that you all might speaking about y'all, I'm talking about the Republicans. You you all might lose the Senate." And his response to me was really fascinating, Elliot. His response to that was, "I have enough money for my bunker." And they're like, "Excuse me, sir. We're talking about the Senate." He's like, "Yeah, it doesn't matter. I have enough money for my bunker. I have enough money for the ballroom." Well, he also said in his cabinet meeting yesterday, I don't care about the midterms verbatim.

[00:22:36]Like like the electoral consequences are not, you know, something that they're really at least publicly he says like registering in his in his decision-m.

[00:22:44]>> Yeah. And which is also frightening because again, we don't know. But like how come you don't care about the midterms, bro? Like do you have some other plans? Uh Save Act, raids, uh ending mailin ballots, I don't know, insurrection act. We will see. Uh but >> like the natural conclusion is that he cares about himself.

[00:23:00]>> Yes.

[00:23:01]>> And uh the sooner Republicans wake up to the fact that he has held their party hostage for 10 years to you know like basically um pillage the government for his own personal good and to go to his family the better for the Republican party for them to realize that they don't need Donald Trump. Like so here's here's another thing right the convention and I I don't mean to like ping pong. I did have a little bit too much coffee. Let's talk about the Republican convention that they're going to have that they're going to have in September. The logic here is similar to what we're talking about right now. Donald Trump thinks that um if he is on the ballot and the Republican National Committee evidently agrees, then they are going to increase voter turnout among those lower propensity voters that voted for Trump in 2024 to help him to help him win. um they are not thinking at all about how the public is uh viewing their pol like the uh the consequences of their policy because what what is actually going to happen is a Republican National Convention that is like you know actually covered fairly by by the press or at least covered at all by all members of the press will draw attention to Donald Trump and if there's still a war going on will draw attention to the war'll draw attention to high gas prices will draw attention to impacts of tariffs um will just in general and here I'm putting on my back on my political scientist hat draw attention to the fact that he is in control of the government and that is something that throughout history voters in midterms midterm elections have always reacted negatively against um so like in their mental you know Donald Trump's mental worldview it is all about Donald Trump he wants to be on stage >> in September for an RNC because he wants to be on stage not because people around him are actually trying to understand public opinion or like electoral dynamics um or trying to get him to act on them just because he he wants to be on stage. And I have like a meta narcissist theory of of Donald Trump too. Um I I think he probably would have never run for president if the New York Times gave him a profile. This is this is my hot take.

[00:25:12]>> I agree. And uh once you you know if you adopt that worldview which I'm being somewhat cheeky but not really everything about his second term starts to make a lot of sense because he's not reacting to public opinion. He's not reacting to expert uh expertise especially on the economy. Um he's not doing anything that seems to want to improve conditions for average people or for his to help his party hold power in the future to accomplish his agenda. he is just taking as much money as possible out of the political system making deals with himself um to you know to benefit himself and once you realize that it all starts to make sense. I completely agree and I think you know we can all be armed as psychologists and psychiatrists here because we have the behavior of this man for his whole life but especially in the past 10 years uh a a fragile fickle ego a supreme narcissist who does not care about anything or anyone other than himself and you see him literally as he's sundowning he's an old man uh and and I don't want to compare him to a dog cuz a dog is a loyal animal but what dogs do is they they piss on their you know for their territory and he's pissing on everything goes, "Mine, mine, mine, mine." Which is not a dog, but also is like the the bird in Finding Nemo. So, I'm going to mix my analogies here, but uh you saw today, right? He wants his face on the $250 bill. He wants his arch. He wants his reflecting pool. He wants his bunker. Him him. He wants his golden statue. Um a gladiator ring for him and his birthday where people will bash each other's brains and get brain damage at in an MMA ring. He does not give a single solitary f.

[00:26:47]Elliot and he said so by his own words and this is a man who I've always compared to again another animal analogy I apologize to New York City sewer rats like he'll chew through anything and everyone to stay in power. Um and and I think uh what he's trying >> apologize to the sewer rats.

[00:27:04]>> Yeah. I'm sorry sewer rat is you know we don't know but like we know enough that I don't think he he'll leave legally and peacefully. I hope he does. Track record says that he won't. And even if the pitchforks come out, he goes, "Hey, I got a billion dollar bunker. I'll just go to the bunker." And now he's just openly telling you, "Yeah, it's not a ballroom. It's also a bunker." Um, and uh I know some people have been talking about like a parallel government that's been trying to set up there in the in that private bunker with like, you know, enough technology and enough information where they can just uh you ride it out.

[00:27:36]And people say that's crazy, watch. And I also say, Wallen, authoritarians in the past, uh, when they get numbers like this, they always literally bunker down.

[00:27:45]Uh, so folks, we're in it now. He does not give a And if you don't believe me and Elliot in the just listen to him, he does not give a at all.

[00:27:53]>> Yeah. I mean, if like I I do I do think he might just try to stay like if he had a bunker, he might just try to stay in it. But, uh, you know, like so what? Um if there's a if there's a president that is inaugurated uh who by you know has electoral votes that are certified by Congress to be the new president of the United States and there's just an old man like living below the White House in in his bunker.

[00:28:19]Uh and you know he's not like actually done a real a real coup with the military obviously. He fine stay in the bunker until you like run out of food and die. Uh it it really wouldn't it I don't mean to be too like dismissive but it probably wouldn't matter. Um but to bring it back to the policy right this is or the public opinion it's all it's all imple em implatic of his broader disregard for for the average person and that is the point right >> and and I also this is where um I want to I want to share my screen one last time as we're continuing this uh share off um because you have this here which is what Americans actually want here uh talk to us about this what v voters want because you have that towards the end of your uh latest piece Well, one of the the thing that prompted us asking this question is um you know, one of the broader like problems the Democratic party is going to have even if they win back power is that uh Americans broadly like don't feel like the political system works for them. Uh when we ask them this in our poll, 55% of Americans say that major disruptive changes are needed to the economy. the other sorry to the political system. The other questions the other response options to this question are like things are going well or things aren't going well and some small changes are needed.

[00:29:43]So 55% are choosing the most aggressive option. Um so we want to know like if Democrats are back in power is that anti-inccumbent sentiment that anger just going to end up electing Republicans again four years later?

[00:30:00]actually probably I think it probably would unless they have some sort of affirmative agenda. Um so we've been polling and this is one of the questions about what economic policy Americans say would actually help them. This is not.

[00:30:16]So, the numbers you're seeing here are uh people were presented with the policies listed on the left and they could pick two of them um to pick those that would quote make you and your family feel less anxious about the economy. And people say they want, you know, tax cuts for them and working class, higher taxes on high earners and corporations so that the government can spend more money. And like this was explicit in the question. people are saying let's raise taxes so the government can spend more money. Um they could uh they also about 23% of them picked stricter regulations on corporations and price price gouging which was of course a big thing after co uh and you can see there's like generally left like support for generally left-leaning issues here. Um there's also support for reducing federal spending and the national deficit. about 20% of people say that that solving the deficit would make them feel less anxious about the economy. So another version of this question would be like what would make you feel less anxious about your personal financial condition like what would make you feel better and less worried and that's a question we'll ask in the next one. Um because this phrasing right about the economy might make people think in more like abstract terms such as like oh yeah let's like fix the federal deficit that's probably not actually going to help the price of groceries for example.

[00:31:37]It's it's uh you know I'm glad you mentioned it because you just said this and I've been trying to warn people but we'll see is that if Democrats and the current Democrats and I just take them on their word the Democratic leaders if they refuse to promote a type of I guess you could say center left left progressive agenda which is I don't even think left according to the numbers it seems pretty majority moderate. Uh what we can get is a return in in four years, right? Because Joe Biden was supposed to usher forth a new age and then we got Donald Trump again in 2024. Clearly people are fed up. Clearly people want to change. Clearly people realize the rich are getting richer. Clearly people can't make ends meet and they want to hear something something about affordability and accountability with specifics. And you just showed us some of the specifics. All right. Tax cuts for the average Jose and Jane. tax the rich regulations reign in these folks. I haven't heard it yet from some Democratic leaders in establishment.

[00:32:33]What I've heard instead is uh the billionaires are part of our big club.

[00:32:36]That's a quote from Gavin Newsome. Eh, we need ICE. Eh, Medicare for all.

[00:32:41]That's crazy. Uh so here's an opportunity, Democrats, look at the numbers. You also have to look at the numbers because people are sick and tired of it. They're sick and tired of forever wars. They're sick and tired of giving a blank check to Israel as it's rampaging and literally today announced it's going to take over 70% of Gaza. Um they're sick and tired of you being in bed with AI and crypto. They hate data centers. Will they listen? I don't think they will. Uh but uh we have the numbers. The people I think uh are sick and tired. And your data shows me that the people It's not just Last question.

[00:33:11]It's not just the liberals anymore, is it Elliot?

[00:33:15]>> No, it's independents also. So, I mean, like 20% of independents say they approve of Trump. If you ask independents which party they favor on the economy, then they say Democrats more often. Um, maybe I'll publish like a deeper dive on independence in our polls. That one of the reasons I like conversations like this is because it gives me ideas what to write about. Um, but like you don't Yeah, you don't end up at a 35% approval rating without losing the opposition party, obviously, independents and a good chunk of your base with Donald Trump. About 20% of people who say they voted for Donald Trump say they disapprove of him. About 15% say they'll vote for Democrats or they won't vote at all in the midterms, so they would just abandon the Republican party either by not voting or voting for the other side. So, uh, yeah, this is like, you know, Americans have woken up to some extent to the fact that Donald Trump was never going to fix the policy or the the problems that they were identifying when they voted him in. And that's really the big takeaway from our polling.

[00:34:14]>> Uh it's it's it's it's a great piece, very thorough, came out yesterday and uh I actually invited you last week and I'm like, "Oh, the timing is fantastic." Uh the piece is called I just shared it in the in the comment section, but I'm going to share it again when we link it up and have this up later for those who are watching on YouTube and uh later on Substack. Americans blame Trump for the cost of living crisis. Excuse me.

[00:34:35]Americans blame Trump for the cost of living crisis. Here's what they want done about it. Fantastic polling, great questions. He is underwater on every issue. Negative double digits on every issue except border security where it's not comforting. He's at flatline zero.

[00:34:51]Um nearly half Americans say their personal finances are worse under Trump.

[00:34:55]They blame Trump. Uh groceries, utilities, healthcare, top the list. Um speaking about gas prices is going to get worse. That's up there as well. Uh it's not just Democrats, it's also majority of independents. and also he's leaking from his base. And then what voters want is some of these progressive apparently crazy radical uh policies which aren't really that crazy or radical such as tax cuts for the average Joe, raising taxes on the 1%, stricter regulation, um higher federal minimum wage. Crazy stuff. Just crazy.

[00:35:29]>> Really crazy stuff like returning the tax rate for the highest income bracket above 40% where it was 90% in the 1960s.

[00:35:37]Yeah. Crazy, real crazy stuff. Lyndon B.

[00:35:39]Johnson, a real crazy leftist.

[00:35:41]>> Or or that or that flaming communist Dwight Eisenhower. Remember him?

[00:35:44]>> Yeah. In the >> That guy was Marxist.

[00:35:47]>> Yeah. Totally.

[00:35:48]>> His name was Dwight. Marxist.

[00:35:50]>> Total Muslim Marxist. Uh who was into cosplaying. It's ridiculous. Uh >> you mentioned the billionaire tax. Like that is just kind of a no-brainer from both dimensions, both political and economic. the like the the only reason you would oppose the billionaire tax if you were like the governor of California is is because you had like ulterior ideological motives or because like um personal connections to the billionaire class like people favor it and it would like dramatically uh increase the amount of money available for social spending and like you know put money back in the tax system uh or the like the public spending system prop like probably where it belongs instead of like hiding out in bunkers in Hawaii. It's literally a slam dunk. Literally a slam dunk. And the reason why Dems aren't picking it up?

[00:36:35]Well, what I always say, Elliot, is follow the money. Who supports them? And so, you have to ask yourself in the year 2026 where the data is just there's so much data. It's not just one poll. It is consistent that you want to slam dunk when there's a wide open lane. Just say, "Yeah, I'm going to tax the billionaires." How come many if not most of the Democratic establishment uh front runners are not championing it? and instead of saying now now brown cow tutt we need these billionaires.

[00:37:02]>> Yeah we don't >> we don't uh uh Elliot please shamelessly promote yourself.

[00:37:07]>> Uh yeah well thanks for having me back.

[00:37:09]I will come back again if people want to read more about polls or datadriven independent political journalism. They can head on over to strengthin numbers.news. That's all one word news.

[00:37:21]>> It's fantastic work folks. Thank you all uh for watching. Ellie did great work.

[00:37:25]It's a great piece. Uh really really thorough. I mean has a fantastic snapshot of how so many Americans are struggling, what they value right now.

[00:37:34]It it just brings it all together and there's a great opening for Democrats.

[00:37:38]Will they take it? I don't think so. I don't think they will. Uh but that's why it's up to us to put the pressure on them. Uh and Trump is weak. And then you have to ask yourself, why is a man who gets this data, why does he just not give a I have my reasons. Elliot has his reasons. I think you can make your own conclusions. Uh maybe people who build bunkers and have incited a violent insurrection and have paid off those insurrectionists with a pardon um and a $1.8 billion slush fund. Maybe they're they're people who don't really plan on leaving. That's just me. Maybe I'm crazy. Uh thank you all for watching. I'll be back at 2 p.m. uh with a fantastic guest who's written a book called How to Be a Dissident. How to be a dissident. It's a it's a great new book. And then we also have uh Butch wear uh who decided to come. He really wanted to come on. I'm like, "All right, uh let's see." He's he's running for governor as a writen uh in the state of California. It's obviously a long shot.

[00:38:32]Uh but he has ideas about how to shake up uh the Democrats and American politics. And then at 6 p.m. we have Chris Smalls, who was the organizer and activist who actually uh rallied Amazon workers uh to unionize. Uh he has a new memoir coming out. he wanted to come in and talk about how the power is in the people. He's going to be on at 6 p.m.

[00:38:51]So, we got a whole bunch of really good folks uh coming out talking about uh how to resist this all of this this chaos.

[00:38:57]Uh tune in. Uh and also finally, it's the left hook. Uh everything's free, no pay walls. If you can, please become a free subscriber. Uh if you have some money, uh I have 800 kids. I have a special the left hook.substack.com/special.

[00:39:11]$3.75 a month forever. But if you have no money, it's free. So, just subscribe to uh Elliot's fantastic substack strength and numbers and the left hook.

[00:39:21]And for everyone who's watching on YouTube, subscribe. It's all free. Thank you all for watching. Be kind, be informed, and please Oh, please don't.

[00:39:28]O, real quick, Ellie, are you going to get Lego Min uh uh uh tth that's coming out in 3 days.

[00:39:35]>> Oh my god, I didn't even know about I probably don't have room for it, but uh we'll see if it it's 600. I mean, I'm I can't get it right now. It's Well, it's 650 bucks.

[00:39:47]>> Oh, no. No. I have a baby on the way.

[00:39:49]I'm not doing that. You can say it to me, though.

[00:39:50]>> But I just want to temp. I'm gonna put it in right now. Just look at it. It's 8,000 pieces. It looks >> glorious. Uh if I if I get it, my wife might divorce me. Uh but since I know about it.

[00:40:03]>> Yeah, dude. I'd be cooked. I'm sleeping in the basement.

[00:40:06]>> No way. No way.

[00:40:07]>> What happens if you bring that in? What would your wife do if you just brought home an $650?

[00:40:12]>> I'm not even I'm sleeping outside. I'm not even in the basement. If I bring it if I bring home lemon minister, I'm duh.

[00:40:19]>> She's like, you can make love to that for the next two years. Uh, thank you everyone for uh take care and please oh, please don't be a fascist. Thanks, Elliot. X