Tom Lee: “The Biggest Rally of Our Lifetime Is Still Coming After This Crash” (3 Tech Stocks To Buy)

本站添加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]In today's video, we are breaking down a major market interview featuring Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat and chief investment officer at Funstrat Capital, alongside Brian Bellski, CEO of Humalis, as they discuss where the market is really headed next on CNBC's closing bell. Tom Lee delivers a bold outlook, arguing that despite short-term uncertainty, the market is still positioned for what he describes as a massive rally ahead. He also points to strong earnings trends and ongoing demand in major tech names like Nvidia as evidence that this cycle is not over yet, even if volatility increases along the way. In this video, I am going to show you the actual clip of Tom Lee's interview first. Then I will give you my personal breakdown and reaction to what he said, what it really means for investors, and where I agree or disagree with his outlook. After that, I will take it a step further and highlight three tech stocks that I believe are positioned to benefit if this broader market setup plays out the way Tom Lee is describing. So, with that said, let's go straight into the clip and hear what Tom Lee has to say. Now, to our panel, CNBC contributor, Funstrat's Tom Lee, Humulus' Brian Bellski. It's good to have both of you here on set. Uh I mean, Tom, you you see the activity in the microns and the snowflakes and and you think what as you watch this market?

[00:01:14]Well, I I think it was a great conversation with Liz, but one thing to keep in mind is now that Q1 earnings is behind us, people thought S&P earnings would be $70, it's going to come in at 80. So that's a $10 beat. That's $40 annualized.

[00:01:31]That means that this added the upside to earnings is somewhere between 800 and a,000 points of S&P upside. I think the entire rally since April could be explained by just the Q1 earnings beat.

[00:01:44]>> You're calling for a three-phase market still. Explain to our viewers again what what what that means.

[00:01:51]>> Yes. Our base case for this year, which we expected to be a challenging year, and it feels like it is we'd rally towards 7,300 initially. Now we're above that, but I think >> almost 76.

[00:02:03]>> Yeah. And I think we can get to maybe 77, as high as 77. But I think then we're going to digest a lot of things until October and that's a new Fed share. It's the energy shock that Liz talked about, especially shortages of petroleum products and lubricants. You know, Auto Nation talked about it. And the third is the IPOs of SpaceX opening anthropic that when the unlocks happen, that's a lot of extra supply. So, I think that could pressure stocks in a way that feels like a bare market. But then post midterms, I think we rally strongly and and 2027 is a year where we might see some of the best returns we've ever seen in our lifetime.

[00:02:42]>> All right, Brian. So, you had the benefit of listening to Lizanne and now Tom's answer. Is it how does it match up with what you're thinking?

[00:02:50]>> It doesn't differ that much because when we came out with our year- ahead piece for 2026, we explained to investors that the market environment in 2026, Scott, was going to be very different than the last two years or three years of the bull. meaning it was going to be an earnings driven market. Earnings driven markets are much more volatile than momentum driven markets. What what Tom's done an amazing job talking about, but they also reward in both directions. If if if like Liz says, and what I think is ultimately going to happen is that you start to see a diminishing and deceleration of the large cap stock um EPS, you're going to have some fear, Scott, and people are going to act on that. That's kind of number one. Number two, it also says that you have more corrections during an earnings driven market. And we've been saying that we're going to have some sort of a correction.

[00:03:38]I don't think it's going to be quite a bare market, but to the tune of 5 to 10% heading into the fall. And then we finally have our broadening out theme. I still am a big believer in the broadening out theme. And I think that's what's going to really drive things into 2027.

[00:03:52]>> Why do we have a correction? You mean like earnings earnings are not going to live up to to the moment and that's going to cause the correction? There's got to be a mechanism theoretically. So if you think about how great the earnings have been, and Liz nailed it when she said if there any kind of blush of any kind of change in tone for management, if they go from a 30% gain in earnings down to 20%, that's a big delta, even though 20% is an amazing earnings gain, but that's going to scare people enough to sell. The other thing, too, is that what was lost in what she said was very, very important. When you run money in portfolios, you can either let your portfolio drift with the market or you set your back to your original weights. I think it's going to be very very important over the next four to six weeks to set back to the original weight, especially considering how far stocks have have gone. You've got some stocks that have doubled and now are bigger in weight than some of the mag sevens in your portfolio. And that's a problem. feel like when you look at a snowflake go up 40% in a day or the microns, you know, the these moves as as I've described them used to be special.

[00:04:53]You know, you'd see this once who knows a few years for a name. Now they're becoming routine and and that's a problem. That's a problem because now we're becoming used to it. And anytime in the market you get used to it, you get lazy and that's where we could see that correction beginning to reverse and that could really spew more downside.

[00:05:10]>> What what's going to push money towards the other parts of the market? Does it have to be the the end of the war? Oil has to come down, yields have to come down even further. Do we need, you know, a signal from a worsh now worshled Fed in mid June that, well, the market may be pricing in a hike. We could actually cut rates. I mean, I I you know, if I took a step back, oil has moved in a way and it's created inflation in a pipeline in a way that financial conditions have to tighten later this year. So, I think the bond market is pricing in a hike now instead of easing. And I think as long as that's what the bond market's pricing, it it is tougher for a lot of groups to rally because most groups need a a dovish Fed.

[00:05:58]>> Yeah. No, but if the if if some people say, well, the bond market leads the Fed with a new chair with a decidedly different view on not only the mechanics of inflation, but the dealing with, you know, how how he wants to put his own stamp on this on this that maybe this is the Fed that's going to lead the market.

[00:06:18]Like maybe the market's wrong.

[00:06:20]>> Yeah. I mean, >> you can you see a Kevin Wars le Fed with with he as chair hiking rates anytime in the near future? I think Kevin Worsh has a very difficult task because the bond market already has its template. Uh he wants to cut rates but shrink the balance sheet. So there's a lot of sterilization taking place there. It's almost as if someone takes over the role of CEO of a company and says we've got a new way of telling our story. Investors will be skeptical at first and I think that's why the market will test this Fed. Tom Lee just laid out one of the most important market road maps investors need to pay attention to right now because what he is basically saying is that this rally is not random. It is not just hype and it is not purely AI momentum pushing stocks higher.

[00:07:08]According to him, the market has a real earnings foundation underneath it. But at the same time, he is warning that the second half of the year could become much more volatile than what investors are currently expecting. And honestly, after listening to this interview closely, I think this is one of the more balanced takes we have heard from a major Wall Street strategist lately. Tom Lee is still bullish overall, but he is also acknowledging that there are some very real risks building underneath the surface of this market that investors probably are not fully pricing in yet.

[00:07:38]The first major point Tom Lee made was about earnings. And this is extremely important because he believes the entire market rally since April can largely be explained by how strong first quarter earnings turned out to be. Investors originally expected S&P earnings to come in around $70, but instead they came in closer to $80. That is a massive beat.

[00:07:58]And when you annualize that difference across the broader market, Tom says it could justify somewhere between 800 to 1,000 additional S&P points of upside.

[00:08:08]Now, this part really matters because a lot of people have been saying this market is disconnected from reality.

[00:08:13]They keep arguing that stocks are only going higher because of AI excitement or speculative momentum. But Tom Lee is basically arguing that corporate America is still producing stronger profits than Wall Street expected and that changes everything. And personally, I think there is truth to that. When companies continue beating expectations at this scale, especially in an environment where many investors were preparing for slower growth, it forces portfolio managers to repric risk. It becomes very difficult to stay bearish when earnings continue surprising to the upside. But then Tom transitions into something much more interesting. He says this market is moving through three separate phases.

[00:08:50]The first phase was the initial rally higher and according to him, we are already there. He originally expected the S&P to rally towards 7,300, but now he thinks the market could even stretch towards 7700 before things start slowing down. That is obviously a very bullish near-term call. But what caught my attention was what came next. Tom Lee then says the market may spend the rest of the year digesting multiple risks all at once. And this is where the interview becomes much more nuanced. One of the biggest concerns he brought up was the possibility of an energy shock. He specifically mentioned shortages in petroleum products and lubricants, which sounds small at first, but these are critical industrial inputs. If energy prices spike again or shortages develop, that can quickly flow through the economy in the form of higher inflation and tighter financial conditions. And honestly, I think this is one of the most underrated risks in the market right now. Investors are so focused on AI, semiconductors, and mega cap tech that they are forgetting how sensitive the economy still is to energy costs. If oil starts surging again, the Federal Reserve suddenly has a much harder job.

[00:09:56]Bond yields could rise, borrowing costs could stay elevated, and that would pressure stock valuations across the board. Tom also mentioned something fascinating that I do not think enough people are discussing yet. He talked about the future IPOs and unlock events involving companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Now, this part is very important because Tom is basically saying that when these massive private companies eventually unlock liquidity through IPOs or other events, they could absorb an enormous amount of capital from the market, investors only have so much money to allocate. So, if these giant AI and space companies suddenly become available publicly, institutional money may rotate out of existing stocks to chase those new opportunities. And honestly, I completely understand that argument. Imagine the excitement around a potential SpaceX IPO alone. That could become one of the biggest market events of this generation. Funds would likely reposition aggressively to gain exposure that creates supply pressure elsewhere in the market. Tom even says this environment could temporarily feel like a bare market heading into October. That is a strong statement coming from someone who is generally known as one of Wall Street's biggest bulls. But then he flips bullish again for 2027, saying we could see some of the best returns of our lifetime after the midterms. That is a huge prediction. And while it sounds aggressive, I think what he is really implying is that we may eventually enter another massive liquidity and innovation cycle driven by AI adoption, productivity growth, and broader market participation. Then Brian Bellski jumps into the conversation, and interestingly, he actually agrees with much of Tom Lee's framework, but he explains it from a different angle.

[00:11:33]Brian says the market environment in 2026 is very different from the momentum driven bull market investors got used to over the last several years. He says we are now entering an earnings driven market instead. That distinction matters a lot. Momentum-driven markets are usually simpler. Stocks go up because investors are chasing price action and sentiment. But earnings-driven markets are much more volatile because companies actually have to deliver results consistently to justify valuations. And this is where things become dangerous.

[00:12:03]Brian explains that even if earnings growth remains strong, investors may still panic if the growth rate starts slowing. He gives an example where earnings growth drops from 30% to 20%.

[00:12:14]20% growth is still incredible by historical standards. But because investors became accustomed to 30%, the slowdown itself becomes enough to trigger selling. And honestly, this is exactly how markets behave. Markets do not just react to whether growth is good or bad. They react to acceleration versus deceleration. Once investors become used to explosive growth, anything less starts feeling disappointing. This is why so many tech stocks can collapse after reporting objectively strong numbers. Expectations become too high. Brian also made another point that I think long-term investors really need to hear. He talked about portfolio drift. Basically, some stocks have run so hard that they now occupy oversized positions inside portfolios.

[00:12:57]He warns investors may need to rebalance back toward their original waitings.

[00:13:01]This is something retail investors often ignore during bull markets. When a stock doubles or triples, people become emotionally attached to it and stop managing risk properly. Suddenly, one or two names dominate the entire portfolio.

[00:13:13]And in my opinion, this is one of the hidden dangers of this AI rally. Many investors now have enormous concentration risk in a handful of mega cap stocks without realizing it. Then the conversation shifts towards stocks like Snowflake and Micron Technology making huge one-day moves. The host points out that these types of explosive rallies used to be rare, but now they are becoming routine. Brian responds by saying that is actually a problem. And I completely agree with him here. When markets normalize extreme moves, investors start becoming complacent.

[00:13:44]Risk management disappears. traders begin assuming every dip will recover instantly and every earnings report will lead to another massive rally. That kind of mindset usually works until suddenly it does not. And historically, some of the most painful corrections happen right after investors become fully comfortable with excessive volatility.

[00:14:02]Toward the end of the interview, the discussion shifts toward the Federal Reserve and bond markets. And this part was especially important because Tom Lee basically argues that rising oil prices are already creating inflation pressure that could force financial conditions to tighten later this year. In other words, the bond market may now be pricing in rate hikes instead of cuts. That changes everything for stocks. A large portion of this rally has been built around the expectation that the Fed would eventually become more dovish. But if inflation reacelerates because of energy prices, the Fed may not have the flexibility investors were hoping for.

[00:14:36]The host then brings up the possibility of a future Fed chair like Kevin Worsh potentially leading markets in a different direction. Tom Lee responds by saying Worsh would face a difficult task because the bond market already has its own expectations. And this is another critical point investors sometimes underestimate. The Federal Reserve does not fully control the market anymore.

[00:14:56]Bond traders often force the Fed's hand.

[00:14:59]If yields rise aggressively because investors expect inflation to stay elevated, financial conditions tighten regardless of what the Fed wants.

[00:15:07]Overall, I think this interview was incredibly valuable because it was not blindly bullish or blindly bearish. Tom Lee essentially laid out a road map where earnings strength continues supporting stocks in the near term. But volatility, inflation risks, energy pressures, and massive future IPO events could create a very unstable period before another potentially historic rally emerges later on. And personally, I think the biggest takeaway here is that this market is becoming much more selective. The easy money phase where everything rallies together may be ending. investors are probably going to need stronger discipline, better risk management, and more realistic expectations going forward. Because if Tom Lee and Brian Bellski are right, we are entering a market where earnings quality matters more, volatility increases, and investor psychology becomes even more important than usual.

[00:15:54]Now, let's dive in and break down three powerful tech stocks that are quietly positioned to benefit from the next wave of long-term infrastructure and artificial intelligence expansion. These are companies that sit behind the scenes powering the systems that make modern computing, energy efficiency, and digital infrastructure possible. The first company we need to talk about is one of the most important names in the entire data center buildout cycle.

[00:16:19]Verive Holdings, ticker symbol VRT.

[00:16:23]If you strip away the excitement around artificial intelligence and look at what actually makes the AI economy function, you quickly realize something important.

[00:16:32]None of it works without infrastructure.

[00:16:34]Every AI model, every cloud service, every high-performance computing cluster depends on reliable power delivery, cooling systems, and precision engineered hardware that keeps everything running efficiently under extreme load. This is exactly where Vertive Holding sits in the market.

[00:16:49]Vertive is not a company that builds the software you interact with. It is a company that builds the physical backbone that allows digital intelligence to exist at scale. Think of it as the hidden nervous system of the modern internet. managing thermal systems, power distribution units, and critical infrastructure for data centers that operate 24 hours a day without interruption. And that matters more now than at almost any point in history because the demand for compute power is no longer growing linearly. It is compounding. As artificial intelligence models become more complex, they require exponentially more energy and cooling capacity. That creates a structural tailwind for companies like Vertive that specialize in making data centers more efficient, more scalable, and more reliable under pressure. What makes Verdive especially interesting is that it is directly exposed to one of the most durable investment trends in the world right now, which is global data center expansion. Every major technology shift over the last few decades has had a physical bottleneck. Right now, that bottleneck is energy efficiency and thermal management. So when hypers scale operators build new facilities, they do not just need chips or servers. They need entire ecosystems that can support massive heat loads and uninterrupted power delivery. That is where Vertive becomes essential rather than optional.

[00:18:04]And this is where the long-term thesis becomes powerful. Vertive is benefiting from a world where cloud computing is still expanding, artificial intelligence is scaling aggressively, and enterprise digitization is far from complete. Even more importantly, the company is tied into multi-year capital expenditure cycles from large-scale data center operators, which gives it visibility into demand that many industrial companies simply do not have. From a financial perspective, Verdivive has been showing strong momentum in revenue growth driven by sustained demand in data center infrastructure. Margins have also been expanding as higher value engineered systems become a larger portion of its business mix compared to basic equipment sales. That combination of growth plus improving profitability is exactly what long-term investors typically look for in infrastructure compounders. But here is the key insight that most investors miss. Verie is not just riding a trend. It is becoming embedded into the architecture of the AI economy itself. Once its systems are installed in large-scale data centers, switching costs become extremely high.

[00:19:06]That creates a sticky revenue base that can support long-term earnings stability even when broader markets become volatile. And in my opinion, this is where the real opportunity lies. Not in chasing the most obvious AI names, but in identifying the companies that quietly enable the entire system to function. Because history shows us that in every major technology cycle, the biggest winners are not always the ones generating headlines. They are often the ones providing the infrastructure that everyone else depends on. If this resonates with you, you're exactly who this channel is for. Please hit the like button, share the video, and leave your thoughts in the comments. Subscribe to the channel so you don't miss out on the next important financial investing update. Remember to do your own research before you invest in any stock. The second company we need to look at sits at the intersection of energy innovation and datadriven power generation, and it is one of the most misunderstood names in the entire clean energy and infrastructure space. Bloom Energy, ticker symbol B-E. At first glance, Bloom Energy does not fit neatly into the traditional tech narrative. It is not a software company and it is not a semiconductor manufacturer. But if you step back and look at what is actually happening in the world right now, you realize that energy reliability has become one of the most important constraints on technological growth.

[00:20:24]Artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and large-scale data centers are all extremely power intensive. The more advanced these systems become, the more electricity they require, and the more pressure they place on aging power grids. This is where Bloom Energy enters the conversation in a meaningful way.

[00:20:39]The company specializes in fuel cell technology that generates electricity on site without relying entirely on traditional grid infrastructure. In simple terms, instead of pulling all of its power from centralized utilities, a facility can deploy Bloom's systems to produce more stable distributed energy directly at the point of use. That may sound technical, but the implication is very straightforward. It gives large energy consumers more control, more reliability, and in many cases more efficiency compared to traditional power sources and that is becoming increasingly important as data centers expand at a rapid pace. When you combine rising electricity demand with grid congestion, you create a structural bottleneck and whenever bottlenecks appear in the economy, companies that solve them tend to become extremely valuable over time. Bloom Energy is trying to position itself exactly in that role. a decentralized energy provider for missionritical infrastructure. What makes this even more interesting is the shift in how enterprises think about energy security.

[00:21:37]It is no longer just about cost. It is about uptime, predictability, and resilience. If a data center goes offline for even a short period, the financial losses can be enormous. That creates a strong incentive to invest in alternative energy systems that reduce dependency on traditional grids. From a financial standpoint, Bloom Energy has been gradually scaling its revenue base as adoption increases across industrial and commercial customers. The business is still evolving, but the underlying trend is clear. Demand is being driven by structural energy needs, not short-term cycles. Now, I want to be very direct here. Bloom Energy is not a risk-free investment. It operates in a capitalintensive industry, and its path to consistent profitability has historically been uneven. But that is also why the opportunity exists. Markets tend to underestimate companies that are sitting at the early stage of solving large infrastructure problems. And if Bloom successfully expands its role in powering data centers and industrial facilities, it could become one of the key energy enablers of the AI era. This video is brought to you by Value Stocks Investing Master Course. If you're looking to grow your wealth by investing in solid, undervalued stocks, but not sure where to start, I created the Value Stocks Investing Master Course to teach you how to identify great companies, make smart investment decisions, and build a portfolio that lasts. Click the link in the description and pinned comments to get the course today, and take control of your financial future.

[00:23:07]The third and final company brings everything together. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, ticker symbol TSM. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is one of the most strategically important companies in the global technology ecosystem because it does not just participate in the semiconductor industry, it enables it.

[00:23:24]Most of the world's most advanced chips are not actually produced by the companies that design them. Instead, they are manufactured by a highly specialized foundry system and TSM sits at the very center of that system. This is critical to understand because every major trend in technology right now, artificial intelligence, advanced computing, autonomous systems, and high performance data processing all depends on cuttingedge semiconductors. And TSM is the company that manufactures the most advanced versions of those chips at scale. What gives TSM its long-term advantage is not just scale, but technological leadership. Semiconductor manufacturing at the leading edge requires extreme precision, massive capital investment, and years of process refinement. Once a company falls behind in this industry, it is extremely difficult to catch up. TSM has consistently maintained its position at the forefront of this technological curve, producing chips for the most advanced applications in the world. That includes high performance AI accelerators, advanced mobile processors, and next generation computing architectures. From a business perspective, this creates a powerful structural moat. Customers do not switch foundaries easily because performance, yield, and reliability are absolutely critical. Even small improvements in chip efficiency can translate into massive gains in computing performance, especially in AI workloads where scale matters. And this is where the long-term investment thesis becomes very clear. As artificial intelligence continues to expand, demand for advanced semiconductors is expected to grow significantly. But unlike previous cycles, this is not just about consumer devices. This is about global infrastructure, cloud computing, and enterprise AI systems that require increasingly powerful chips to function.

[00:25:05]TSM is effectively positioned as the bottleneck solution to global computing demand. From a financial standpoint, the company has consistently delivered strong revenue growth supported by increasing demand for advanced nodes.

[00:25:18]Its capital expenditure cycle is also massive, but that is part of its competitive advantage. The ability to continuously invest in next generation fabrication technology is what keeps it ahead of competitors. And while many investors focus on short-term volatility in semiconductor stocks, the more important perspective is long-term dominance. Because in this industry, the winner is often the company that can stay at the leading edge of manufacturing complexity for the longest period of time. TSM has already proven that it can do this repeatedly across multiple technology cycles. So when you combine everything together, Verdivive is powering the infrastructure. Bloom Energy is solving the energy constraint and TSM is manufacturing the core intelligence hardware that everything else depends on. These are not speculative ideas. These are foundational systems that sit at the core of the next decade of technological expansion. If you want exclusive stock tips, in-depth analysis, real-time trade alerts, and free investing guides, join the Stocks Galore Patreon today and take your investing game to the next level.

[00:26:19]Our members get full in-depth analysis on most of the stocks mentioned here.

[00:26:23]Head over to patreon.com/stocksgalore and become part of our growing community of smart investors. Link is in the description. Now, the question is this.

[00:26:32]When you look at these three companies, which do you believe has the strongest long-term competitive advantage in a world increasingly driven by artificial intelligence, infrastructure, and energy demand? Leave your thoughts in the comments because I want to see how you are thinking about this shift in the market. Do not forget to like the video, share your thoughts in the comments, and subscribe so you do not miss the next important investing update. Thanks for watching and I will see you in the next