The UK's local elections matter. This Is Why.

Added: 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]There are big divisions out there in the country. There are tensions that are going to boil over in a much more dramatic way in these elections than they have done in the past. And I think that's because the challenges facing the country feel greater than I've ever known in my lifetime.

[00:00:15]>> The upcoming local and national elections could herald a new era in British politics. And this is why.

[00:00:26]Hi everyone, Neil here. And as it is a massive week in British politics, I've decamped to our Westminster studio to pick one of the massive brains uh that works around here because believe me, what we are about to see could prove seismic. In fact, it's probably worth my while just running you through what is up for grabs on Thursday. Uh we start with the Welsh Assembly, the Scottish Parliament, all London Council burs. Uh we have mayors in local authorities across London plus councils in Birmingham, Newcastle, Sunderland, Bradford, Norfolk and the aisle of white. I mean look on paper these are separate contests. Taken together we could be about to see the biggest shift in British politics in a generation.

[00:01:08]Kathy Newman is our newest box fresh presenter, host of course of the Kathy Newman show. Week nights 7 p.m. on Sky News.

[00:01:19]Kathy, welcome to This Is Why. And look, look, you know what a time to have your own political program in the evening. I mean, it it must be fun, but also quite daunting right now.

[00:01:29]>> Well, yeah. What a time to be alive, really. I mean, we're living for extraordinary times. What's the Chinese proverb? We live in interesting times.

[00:01:35]That's certainly true. And yeah, there could be no more sort of exciting time to launch your own show. Certainly. I mean, I've got the week one under my belt, and that's always the most nerve-wracking. um particularly you know nailing the interview with the prime minister on the first day. We went sort of round the houses a little bit for that. Yeah, we went up to Blackpool and then came back to London to do the interview in London. So that was interesting. Every day there's some new you know huge story to get into. So that's what could be better really >> and and of course you know given the the fact that we are seeing elections England, Scotland, Wales, we thought who better to have on the podcast to explain what's going on. So so let's start with the most fundamental question. Why should anyone care what happens on Thursday?

[00:02:17]>> Well, um, obviously, you know, we all care what happens to our bins being emptied and, you know, what happens to your local services. So, that's the kind of fundamental question about elections, local elections, but of course, these are national elections too in Scotland, Wales for example. Um, so I think the key the broader question is that this could signal the end of the two-party duopoly that has really been going since the 1920s. So, if you look, there's an amazing stat that the House of Commons put out that says that since 1945, up until 1970, two parties got nine in 10 votes at every election. Um, and that's extraordinary. That Labor Conservative duopoly is shattered, entirely gone in this election tomorrow, in these elections tomorrow. So, that is huge.

[00:03:03]It's a complete upending of the political system. And we've all got an interest in that because the parties that are in the ascendants now, the Greens and Reform, they have a completely different agenda, completely different way of doing things. They're populous and that matters to us all.

[00:03:18]What happens to the country with that kind those kind that kind of party in place, those kind of parties in place, let's get started as we kind of move around around the UK. Um, and we're going to start in Wales because potentially something, you know, pretty historic could be happening there. Um, Hannah Woodward is our news editor.

[00:03:34]She's prepared us this quick primer.

[00:03:37]>> Hi Kathy. Hi Neil. Here's your quick guide to what really matters in the Senate elections. First, Labor. They've dominated Welsh politics for over a century and run the Welsh government for 27 years. But that could be about to change. There's even a chance the first minister, Alennon Morgan, could lose out on a seat, which would be a huge moment.

[00:03:59]With six seats in each constituency, it can come down to just a few hundred votes for those final seats and that could be decisive for the Welsh Labour leader. Another key battleground is across the South Wales valleys, Labour's traditional heartland. But Ply Cry and Reform UK are neck andneck in the polls and are pushing hard. We saw a glimpse of that in Caffili. The question now is whether that can be repeated more widely. Nationally, it looks a tight race, but forming a government is the real challenge. You need 49 seats for majority, and no party is close. Most won't work with reform with the Tories potentially facing wipeout, which could limit reform's path to power. Plight does have more options with the Greens or even Labor, potentially the Lib Dems, too, but they aren't projected to make huge ground and could suffer wipeout.

[00:04:50]And all of this is happening under a new voting system, making things unpredictable. But one thing is for certain, Labour's reign looks set to end with Ply Camry and Reform UK fighting to end it.

[00:05:04]>> Well, Kathy, let's just let's just pick up on on what Hannah was just referring to at the end there. The changes in the voting. Look, it's it's always difficult to call how these elections are going to go, isn't it? Incredibly difficult, in fact. But when you change the system of voting, it makes it even more difficult for people like you to work out what's going on.

[00:05:19]>> Yeah. I mean, Hannah encapsulated it brilliantly there, the the chaos of it, the unpredictability, but also the seismic impact of what looks like happening in Wales, which is that Labor's dominance of of more than a century is over. We think we can say that with certainty. And you know, it's extraordinary, isn't it, that you know, Labor is now the best they can hope for is third place, propping up potentially applied administration. I mean, no, you couldn't have predicted that. So do you see then people switching from whether it's labor to applied or labor to reform? Do you see that as a as a positive vote for reform or applied or you know implied negative criticism of the labor administration?

[00:06:00]>> I think to an extent it's a howl of pain that uh you know and it actually relates to what's going on around the world because you know these are um unprecedented times of of of economic pain, economic crisis. um look at what's happening in Iran. You know, people are feeling this in their pockets. And at that moment in time, I say unprecedented, but I suppose you have to look back um to pre-war to see the same kind of undercurrents going on. But people are wanting answers. They think, well, why not? It can't get any worse than it is now. Let's try something new.

[00:06:33]Let's try something different. And I think that's what's going on here.

[00:06:36]>> I wonder if we're seeing something similar taking place in Scotland. Our Scotland correspondent, Connor Gillis, uh got in touch to tell us his thoughts.

[00:06:45]Hey Neil and Kathy, it's Connor Gillis here. Okay, here's everything that you need to know to look out for in this week's Scottish elections. Polls are suggesting the S&P could enter its third decade in power, controlling things like the NHS, the education system, and income tax, all of which are devolved.

[00:07:03]Some analysts here have them winning an overall majority of the seats, which leader John Swinny reckons would be a mandate for securing another vote on Scottish independence like in 2014. It would be a remarkable turnaround for a party that in recent years has been mired in scandal and a police fraud investigation. Labor once hoped of winning this time around, but that looks like wishful thinking. According to the polls, they could even slip in to fourth place. The leader Anna Sarwar has already created distance with Kier Starmer by previously calling on him to quit. The unionist vote here is split even more this time around with reform.

[00:07:44]It could come from nothing to become the second largest party. They've been chipping away at the Tories who are very likely to lose their spot as the main opposition. And the Lib Dems are targeting rural areas once again. And then there's the Greens who are also a pro-independence party. They're enjoying this election. They've previously been kingmakers in government here. And it could be hoping for a repeat if the SNP don't win that overall majority. But not a single vote has been counted or cast yet apart from those postal votes. And either way, the outcome could reshape the very future of the UK.

[00:08:24]>> And and thanks very much for that.

[00:08:25]Connor, do you agree? I mean the the the parallels with what is going on in Wales are are pretty striking. I mean Anisarwa Labour Scot Scottish Labour's leader he was talking a very good game for a long long time but for them to go into fourth place.

[00:08:39]>> Yeah. And I think you know Anasawa is a is an impressive politician you know and and it did look as if he was going to be first minister. Uh the S&P's rule of what two decades was going to be over.

[00:08:50]Um, and I think there, you know, even more than in Wales, um, it's about people there punishing the National Party, the party in England to, um, you know, inflict a bloody nose on Labor. I don't I don't sense that there's a great love for the SMP, but, you know, John Swinny's talking up the mandate for independence. I don't think anyone's expecting him to rush to the ballot box.

[00:09:13]>> K's being explicit about it. It's not happening.

[00:09:15]>> Yeah, it's not happening. And I think that that that will remain the position.

[00:09:19]But I think it's interesting that in Wales and in Scotland and in Northern Ireland, you've got nationalist parties after these elections, they will be ruling the roost and that will have a dramatic implication on politics across the UK.

[00:09:31]>> What though of of of reforms success in Scotland? Look, I'm from that part of the world and if you'd asked me a handful of years ago whether it was possible for rep reform to to be potentially be the second largest party in the Scottish Parliament, I'd have laughed in your face. I mean, things have changed. Well, I think that's partly about conservative weakness and you know, we haven't talked about Kimmy Bnok's position, but I think that's partly about that, but also going back to what we were talking about this how of pain. You know, people are struggling economically and I think at that point you think, well, you know, the S&P is the establishment now in Scotland, isn't it? So, try something new. Try something different. They're the insurgents.

[00:10:07]>> We shouldn't underplay though the success of John Swinny in steadying the ship. For for a long time it did look like one of the inevitabilities of Scottish politics was we were going to get another foreign we were going to get another first minister. There was going to be some sort of change in administration. If they hold on I mean he'll be a hero to the SMP. Well, and I also think there's a sort of terrible uh mirror irony there, isn't there, for K Dharma that, you know, he came to power saying that he was going to end the kind of psycho drama and the crisis in British politics. And actually, there's been more psycho drama in English politics, whereas, you know, the S&P John Swinny has succeeded in being the kind of stable, you know, slightly dull, should we say. I hope I'm not offending him. You probably see that as a badge of pride. Um but you know he has succeeded in doing that where Kiss Armor has failed.

[00:10:53]>> It has been interesting to watch that whilst John Swinny is talking a good game when it comes to independence actually it doesn't feel as much of a touchstone issue in Scottish politics compared to even just a couple of years ago.

[00:11:07]>> And the polls do suggest that don't they? Um and and I mean maybe it's the case that you know people had their say decisively relatively recently and they don't want to go through that agony you know as in Brexit you know there's been a lot of talk recently about will K star go into the next election if he's still there um pledging to rejoin the EU a lot of people say god forbid you know we don't want another Brexit um you know that the divisiveness divisiveness of that politics and perhaps people feel that about independence too >> let's come to to to England and and specifically London as well. What are we to look out for on Thursday uh when it comes to this neck of the woods?

[00:11:45]>> Well, I think there's there's three stories really in the English elections.

[00:11:48]One is the ascent of reform in the the red wall seats, >> seemingly unstoppable ascent.

[00:11:54]>> Yeah. An absolute juggernaut. Um there's the Greens in London uh particularly who are threatening labor there and that you know is very worrying for Karma because um that was seen as sort of an impregnable labor for fortress. Um and then I think there's the Lib Dems um snapping at the Tories heels hoping to make gains in sort of rural southern England. So there's three sort of currents there that we'll be looking out for.

[00:12:18]>> Well, let's let's start with with reform. So what do you attribute this ridiculous amount of success that Nigel Farage has been having a place?

[00:12:27]>> Well, you know, he is as Boris Johnson was, he is a politician who does authenticity.

[00:12:33]um you know whether you like that or not he says what he thinks and a lot of people like that and you see him getting mobbed down on the doorstep in you know coastal towns for example in >> getting mobbed in Scotland these days >> yeah I I think that is you know there's a sense that people are fed up with the kind of the identicate politicians who promise so much and deliver so little I think the interesting um tension there is that where reform are wielding power locally for example in Kent They're struggling to make the sums add up. So again, their promises to to do a different kind of politics to deliver change um I would say are being tested.

[00:13:11]What about Zack Palansky's Green Party then at the moment? I mean it's it is it again it's fascinating time in politics not least because you have a populist party on the right and you've got a populist party on the left. I mean the Greens are going to go great guns, aren't they?

[00:13:23]>> Yeah. I mean again there is that kind of authenticity although some of um Zach Palansky's past claims are being seriously scrutinized now in a way that that weren't before. And you've seen that with Nigel Farage and the question over the donations and gifts as he puts it he's received from a a cryptocurrency tycoon. Um but with Zack Palansky as well I think a lot of that there was a strong support for Jeremy Corbyn's Labor. A lot of those um voters right on the left of the Labour Party have now found a new home in the Greens and obviously that's come with some uh controversy recently in recent days over anti-semitism for example. But I think that you're seeing that that Labor left-wing vote sort of fragmenting. Now, >> let's talk about what what this could all mean for for for the state of politics. And, you know, from from what Connor and Hannah and yourself have been saying, you know, Labor could, you know, be wiped out in Scotland. They could be pushed out of out of control in Wales.

[00:14:17]They could lose burers across London.

[00:14:19]They could lose Birmingham. How long has Kstar gone if all of that goes wrong?

[00:14:25]>> Well, you know, a lot of his detractors, they're already circling. and they're already putting together their their leadership bids. I think the key problem for them, for Karma's opponents, is that there's a a crisis on, there's an economic crisis, there's a war on on multiple fronts, Iran and Ukraine. At times like that, it risks looking very self-indulgent to have a leadership election. And that's what Karma's allies are banking on. Um I think if the uh if it is a complete wipeout tomorrow I think that K star will be under serious pressure. There's talk now does he set a timetable for his departure? I mean we've seen how that movie ends in the past. Um but I think either way there is absolutely I think people would put good money on him not being the Labour leader to lead the party into the next general election. But it is not quite as straightforward for someone within the parliamentary labor party to replace Kio as prime minister as it was during the conservative days. I mean that the the rules for within the parties are different, aren't they?

[00:15:28]>> Yeah. And you know that they do make it very difficult to topple labor leaders but also I think um they're not so good at ditching their leaders labor. You know when it comes to leadership you know Jeremy Corbyn was people tried to topple him and didn't succeed. The Tories are much better at fratricside than Labour. And I think that that you see time and time again the sort of challenges to Karma talking the talk, but are they prepared to walk the walk?

[00:15:53]Um I wouldn't put money on it.

[00:15:54]>> Taking everything that we've been talking about together. I mean I something I've been dwelling on for for for some time now is that this set of elections Scotland, Wales, England, whichever part of it you look at it, of course there are local issues, but it does feel rather more like a referendum on the leadership of each particular party than we've had in quite some time.

[00:16:14]It >> was never thus really. I mean, I remember back in the days of Tony Blair, you know, we're both old farts, so we do remember that that he was getting his general election landslides and then at local elections, people would use it as an excuse to to take issue with this, that, and the other that he was unpopular over. So, I think that's always been the case, but I think there's extremes in British politics at the moment. There are big divisions out there in the country. There are tensions that are going to boil over in a much more dramatic way in these elections than they have done in the past. And I think that's because the challenges facing the country feel greater than I've ever known in my lifetime. I mean, I mean, you know, I was born in the 70s, so I had that dim memory of economic crisis then. Feels a bit like that now.

[00:16:58]Um, but yeah, I was too young to really understand the voting system then.

[00:17:01]>> If the knives, you know, are going to be out for for Kier Star after what we expect to be a pretty disastrous set of results. I mean, no one's predicting the Conservatives are going to go great guns. So why are we not talking about the imminent demise of Kimmy Baden?

[00:17:14]>> There are a few rumblings about Kimmy Baden and actually Ed Davyy the Lib Dem leader you know I was interviewing him yesterday on the show and you know I I noticed that polling for him there's only 51% of his supporters his voters who think he's doing a good job so that all the leaders there's grumbling but I think the difference with Kami Bnock is that as soon as she came in as leader people were hugely disgruntled in her party. She faced a very tough start and since then she's turned it around a bit.

[00:17:43]You know, she's been very combative in prime minister's questions. She sat down with me on the show and she was, you know, she was funny and and feisty and people like that. People warm to that.

[00:17:53]So, I think she's outperformed expectations whereas K star has underperformed. But of course the the expectation is that this set of elections will be the most positive for Nigel Farage and reform and for Zach Palansky and and the Greens. I mean we we've touched on this already, but just how significant is it that we now finally have formalized in a set of elections that which people have been predicting for quite some time two party politics. It's done. It's over.

[00:18:22]>> Yeah. I mean it's huge and it's very unpredictable. So literally anything could happen between now and the next general election and at the general election. Um and you know that's energizing in some ways and it's also for some people it's quite frightening because the rhetoric that's being thrown around and the divisiveness of that rhetoric is something that we haven't seen in this country for quite some time and I think um yeah I think that's what's weighing on people's minds. Can I just be completely cynical for a second and say that, you know, if we are expecting this set of elections to have an incredibly low turnout, the only thing that we can learn um from these May elections is that the public isn't particularly interested in politics or politicians right now.

[00:19:06]>> Well, I'm going to be less cynical for a minute and just say some of the apathy I can understand because uh you know, politicians over the years have made huge promises and they haven't delivered. And I think that the concern now is the problems in the country and in the world are so huge that no political leader seems to be quite getting a grip of those problems. There isn't anyone who seems to be really inspiring um the public, you know, in in a sort of more, you know, in a way that leaders in the past did. And I feel like that is a that's a genuine issue for politics at the moment. And I also think it's partly that people don't want to go into politics because it's such a it's such a hostile world. And so you see people who um you know get big political donations. We've been talking about Nigel Farage and his gift from the cryptocurrency tycoon. I mean that is that is concerning if it's going to be rich individuals and uh you know people with money who are calling the shots in politics in in years to come. If this is truly the end of of two-party politics and we're into a kind of a multipartite state, I mean, doesn't that mean that we are entering a much more unstable era in British politics? And actually, looking at the scale of the problems the country is facing right now, I'd have thought a bit of stability was what we needed.

[00:20:24]Well, I mean, maybe when it comes to general election, if you're in the middle of a war, if you got the threat of Russia launching a new war in Europe, you know, threatening the UK, as many say, uh perhaps that's what people will want in the next general election is stability. But the the issue with that is K Starmmer promised stability and he hasn't delivered it. Um, and so I think that that was a genuine, you know, many of his supporters as well as his detractors say that that was a a genuine squandered opportunity.

[00:20:51]>> What are you going to be looking out for? What are what are the the the the indicators that will confirm to you anything that we've been discussing over the past 20 minutes?

[00:20:59]>> I think I'll be looking at how the Greens do in London. Um obviously I'll be looking in Scotland at, you know, whether it really is um curtains for Labor there. Um Anasawa got his defense in early, didn't he? I mean, Wales, you're looking at the end of an era, aren't you? Um and I'll be looking at reform across the board. Scotland as you've pointed out, Wales, too, but also Northern England, the Red Wall, um, and those southern seats that, you know, this the coastal towns and so on that are under threat, Essex, Sussex, that kind of thing. Um, so yeah, I've got we've got to look every corner of the country and that's the delight of local elections, isn't it?

[00:21:36]>> It it certainly is. Well, for me though, the delight is these days I get to sit in my sofa with a box of popcorn for 24 48 hours and and see what actually unfolds. Where can we see and hear you uh over the election period? I will be doing an extended version of my show.

[00:21:50]So, it's going to be double the normal length. So, it's a a bogoff deal really.

[00:21:54]Two for the price of one.

[00:21:55]>> You're not getting double, believe it.

[00:21:57]>> Well, we'll see. So, on air at 7:00, off air at 9:00 and we'll have all the the remaining results coming in. But most importantly, I think we'll have seen most of the results by then. So, we'll be able to bring you topflight analysis of everything that's happened and it will be seismic.

[00:22:11]>> I will be tuning in on Friday >> with your popcorn. with my popcorn on my sofa. Uh hoping to understand things a little bit better. H Kathy, always good to see you. Thanks very much.

[00:22:20]>> Right. Thanks a lot.

[00:22:22]>> Now, it's going to take quite some time in fact for all the results to come through. But don't you worry, we've got you covered. Starting, of course, uh with Kathy on her show, 7:00 p.m. Friday night on Sky News. Uh plus keep your eyes peeled for extra episodes of our political podcast, Politics at Salmons, and of course, Electoral Dysfunction.

[00:22:39]You're going to see additional episodes of those appearing over the weekend. We are back again tomorrow.