Using A.I. to PREDICT Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland 👊 UFC 328

Ajouté : 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]What's happening everyone? It's James Lynch here and I am back with another AI predicts video and in today's video I'm going to be using Fight Signal yet again, which is an AI platform that gathers data and has a bunch of different models when it comes to predicting fights.

[00:00:12]And if you guys want to get access to the data I'm about to talk about here today, I do have a discount code discount link I should say in the description of this video. If you guys want to sign up, a lot of really cool data points here that we're going to sort of explore here. So what I'll do in this video is I'll go into all the data points with Sean Strickland and Khamzat Chimaev and tell you who they're picking and then if we got some time at the end I'll go through the rest of the card but they'll just be kind of quick picks here. So keep that in mind. All right, let's go. UFC 328 Strickland and Chimaev. Let's go here to the data and let's see what they like here. So as far as the technical comparison, we're going to go through all the all the things here with with everything. So let's start first here with the signals.

[00:00:49]So these are the prediction signals. So with the Fight AI signal, the Chuck Quality favors Chimaev at 54.5%. The Chuck Balance favors Chimaev at 53.5% and the Chuck Volume favors Chimaev at 61%. The betting markets certainly favor Chimaev as well at 80.5. Same thing with Polymarket as well, which is the prediction one. Betting communities overall, the data that they've gathered 79% of people picking Chimaev. Expert and public opinion has that at it 64.9%.

[00:01:15]The stats comparison have it at 72.3%.

[00:01:18]So everything right now heading towards Chimaev predictably because again, he is a big betting favorite in this fight.

[00:01:24]We'll talk about that a little bit later.

[00:01:26]So they look at the Elo score here.

[00:01:28]Chimaev coming in at 1989 1899 there for Strickland. So he gets the edge there.

[00:01:34]Win percentage goes to Chimaev. TKO wins goes to Strickland. Submission wins go to Chimaev at plus 655.56%.

[00:01:42]There decision wins go to Strickland on that side. Skill competition, they do favor Chimaev in the grappling. They favor Strickland in the striking only by a little bit though at plus 11%. Strikes landed per minute goes to Strickland.

[00:01:54]Striking accuracy goes to Chimaev.

[00:01:55]Strikes absorbed per minute goes to Strickland. Same thing with striking defense. Favors Strickland in this as well. 60% to 43. Takedowns per 15 minutes that obviously goes to Chimaev.

[00:02:04]5.3 to 7.1. Takedown accuracy goes to Strickland as well. 55% to 64. Um Takedown defense, Chimaev 85% to 76.

[00:02:16]Submissions per 15 minutes 1.8 to 0.16 Chimaev 1066%. There. So he's certainly got that there. They talk about the physical attributes and who is favored there. We get to the report here.

[00:02:28]Um control time per 15 minutes that Chimaev leads the way. Same thing with significant strikes landed.

[00:02:34]And this is just some some analysis they pull from the web here from Mystical Ghost to Proven Warrior. Chimaev's invincibility was tested and proven. His significant strikes absorbed per minute rocketed from a near untouchable 0.01 in his first three bouts to a battle-hardened 2.32 currently. That proves he's not just a bully with a glass jaw.

[00:02:52]He can take championship level fire and keep hunting for the finish. A critical evolution for bettors and fans.

[00:02:57]Transformation from ground and pound machine to all terrain assailant. I like the way they mention that. Strickland's tech Strickland's technical development completely reversed his game abandoning his early career as a grappling heavily controller averaging 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes to becoming a defensive wall with an elite 85.4% peak takedown defense forcing opponents to stand and trade in his world. He's weaponized cardio and pressure transferring from a mid-range 4.3 strikes per minute fighter into a suffocating volume puncher who now lands over six significant strikes per minute.

[00:03:28]So there we go. Technical comparison does favor Chimaev at 72% compared to Strickland at 27. And again, the Elo score favors him as well.

[00:03:37]Sentiment YouTube, Reddit and news again, most people going with Chimaev. This is just a random fight analysis here. Sentiment analysis favors Chimaev at 58%. Expert prediction has Sean Strickland at 41.

[00:03:49]Public prediction. So the public is much higher in Chimaev. You can see that 71.67 compared to 28.33. Excitement level is 95 out of 100. So people are excited for this one.

[00:03:59]And so yeah, just pulls a couple notes from expert and public opinions. The bookmakers, let's have a quick look at that.

[00:04:05]Right now you're going to see probably Chimaev much higher here. Is it going to load? Yeah, so this is in decimal point.

[00:04:12]So it tells you the best odds you can get Chimaev at right now. And it has all different types of books here. You can see Strickland being the higher number here. That means he's the underdog in this spot. So average is 1.19 to 4.93. You can convert that into American odds if you want but that kind of gives you an idea that Chimaev is a decent favorite here. Okay, let's get to the overview here. So who do they like? They like Chimaev but they only like him by 55.28%.

[00:04:37]Um and 44.72.

[00:04:40]So yeah, there we go. So you can see there they do like Chimaev in this spot but not as much as the odds would indicate.

[00:04:48]Like if we're basing it off the odds, which again have Chimaev as what what do they have it right now? I think at the time of recording this. Yeah, he's almost minus 500. Some books do have him at minus 500. This is actually way lower. If the odds reflected what Fight Signal thinks, he's higher like 80% if we're going with that. So 55.28 they are giving some respect here to Sean Strickland. So again, they favor the the technical striking to Strickland believe it or not. The physicals they actually give to Strickland as well. The grappling though Chimaev takes that.

[00:05:15]Same with the momentum as well. Why Chimaev might win this one. Dominant grappling control with 592.6 control time per 15 minutes versus 72.75.

[00:05:24]Elite takedown rate at 5.29 per 15 minutes with 55.3 accuracy. Superior submission game with 1.83 attempts per 15 minutes and four submission wins. So that's why they think Chimaev might win this one.

[00:05:36]Um And yeah, so there you go. They said they collected 2,470 insights across the internet from analyst channels and websites and news outlets. So again, they do favor that there. If we actually go back to the uh Where is it? The sentiment. I think they have one by uh I think they have one as well why Strickland might win this one. Let me see if I can find that here.

[00:06:01]Here we go. So yeah, this this is what I was looking for. So yeah, again let's just quickly go through these.

[00:06:05]Strickland's advantages significantly higher striking output at 6.05 to 4.04.

[00:06:09]Better striking defense at 60 60.73 to 43.19. I was actually surprised to see that. If you watch my breakdown I pointed out that stat too that Chimaev's striking defense is 43%, which is crazy.

[00:06:19]I'm trying to think which fights he got hit in. Maybe the Burns or Usman fight?

[00:06:22]I'm not sure. Superior reach advantage 193 compared to 90 I don't know why they do it in centimeters. More experience with 24 total fights versus nine. Proven takedown defense at 676.56 versus opponent's takedown attempts. So there we go. So again, lots of stuff to unpack here but they do like Chimaev just not as much as the betting markets do. Okay, we got some time here. Let's go through how they like the rest of this card.

[00:06:45]Again, you just click on events, go to Chimaev Strickland and I'll just go through who they like and talk about who they're in favor of. Let's work our way down here. So Joshua Van Tsuru O'Tyra. Who do they like in this one?

[00:06:56]They favor Tyra at 54.89% compared to 45.11.

[00:07:00]Volkov and Waldo Cortez Acosta. They like Waldo in this fight. 52.15% compared to 47.85%.

[00:07:08]Sean Brady and Joaquin Buckley. That'll be interesting one.

[00:07:12]They favor Joaquin Buckley at 53.04 compared to 46.96% as well. So that's interesting. I think with the fact it's in a bigger arena that's going to favor Brady a little bit but we'll see. Obviously Buckley's got the knockout power. King Green and Jeremy Stephens. Who do they like in here? And this one's pretty even. 50.26% 50.62% compared to 49.38. Makes sense with both their ages and all that.

[00:07:36]Gotter and Aussie Diaz. Gotter is favored also close. 50.66 compared to 49.34.

[00:07:42]Joao Alvaro and Amasov. Very good fight here. They favor Amasov 53.54. That's interesting compared to 46.46.

[00:07:49]Grant Dawson and Rebequi. They favor Rebequi 40 54.72% 45% for Grant Dawson. Kopylov and Tulio.

[00:07:57]They favor Tulio 54.75 compared to 45% for Kopylov. Pat Sabatini and Gomez.

[00:08:03]They favor Gomez 50% compared to 49.

[00:08:05]That's another close one.

[00:08:07]Bensinger.

[00:08:09]They favor Oh, they favor Santos here over Bensinger. That's that's interesting cuz I think he's the favorite if I'm not mistaken, right?

[00:08:16]Do they even have odds for this fight?

[00:08:19]Doesn't look like it. Anyways, I I thought he would have been the the favorite in this one. And then if we go back here as well, Clayton Carpenter and Ochoa. Didn't want to miss that one.

[00:08:29]They are favoring Ochoa Ochoa at 58%. There. So that's where we're at right now. Okay, so there there you have it. The they they do like Khamzat Chimaev to get it done. And just quickly, I always mention this at the end cuz people are like how accurate are they? Well, let's go to the dashboard here. Tells you everything you need to know here.

[00:08:49]Um So the quality AI one that they use is at a 77.12% average accuracy. The balanced tool they use is 72.69% accuracy at picking fights. The volume one is much lower at 62.51% and it shows you the last couple events how the Chuck AI perform.

[00:09:07]Last event they went over These are ones that are coming up here. But yeah, they went one for I think the only one fight there. The Chuck one went eight for 10 on the Win a Pick card. It was actually pretty impressive. A lot of people didn't do that well on their picks on that one. 327 they went five for 11. UFC Fight Night they went six for 12. So they picked it up a little bit here. Of the last event two for five. Um there and then yeah, so kind of very transparent about the data they use. So keep that in mind. So let me know in the comments. Do you agree with these data points? Who do you think or what do you disagree with? Are you agreeing with the main event? Is anyone here picking Sean Strickland? Let me know. Let me know in the comments. Would love to hear from you guys. And again, if you guys want to sign up for Fight Signal and get access to everything that I talked about here today, just take advantage of the link in the description there. My name is James Lynch. This is another AI predicts video that I do for some of the bigger fights and bigger events. Appreciate you tuning in and I will talk to you guys soon.

[00:09:57]Thanks so much for watching.