Crash coming for Bitcoin & Silver? Crash for Gold and stocks?! #BTC #crypto #trading #silver #gold

追加: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]If you've been buying Bitcoin, you've basically been underperforming everything. So, for the last year or half a one and a half years, if you were holding Bitcoin, buying Bitcoin, you've basically been underperforming everything. And that's just a fact. I'll show you today, guys, what's actually outperforming everything. You might think it could be stocks or whatever, but there's actually one particular industry in the stock market that's performing everything. You know, I'm I talk about Bitcoin and crypto a lot. I'm not a hater.

[00:00:27]I hold some Bitcoin. I hold some crypto, right? That's just an unfortunate situation we have to deal with. And some people might say this is a 4-year cycle.

[00:00:35]But what if it is not a 4-year cycle? I mean, like like everything's up, gold, silver, like even copper has hit a new all-time high, aluminum hitting a a multi-year high, lithium, even lithium is up again. Like what is the one industry that has been just outperforming everything? Uh Bitcoin. As I've been saying, you've been watching my videos or in my Discord, I've been saying low 70s, right? Low 70s. We're basically coming down here and uh retest this area. Retest this area for a bounce. And so far, I think this area should hold, right? That's clearly very important support area. I think this area should hold, low 70s, because we are still in blow-off top mode, right?

[00:01:16]This is the COVID drop, COVID crash. And since then, we've been traveling this channel, and we've just recently broken up, and this is in even bigger acceleration to the top, and even bigger acceleration. This is what I call a blow-off top. If a blow-off top is still happening, then personally, I don't think Bitcoin, right, retests and does a double bottom down here, but I could be wrong. So, I've been saying to you guys, watch out for a week down to 70K-ish area, right? Low 70s, and uh re- for Bitcoin to re-assert itself, and close probably this week. We could close this week, right, somewhere above 74K, and then make our move up. And this was uh something I've spoken since like back in February.

[00:02:03]The problem is This was the chart, the orange line you're going to see is what I drew back in February. But the problem is that we have been delayed by about four or five weeks by the Iran war. Originally I saw this bounce up to low to mid 80s, right?

[00:02:19]And we got to 83, not quite there, but kind of close within 2K of my target and then a pullback to the 60K to 58K low and a lot of people are panicking. A lot of people are panicking right now thinking, oh, that's where we're headed.

[00:02:33]We're headed to this line here. Well, this was no surprise basically even before the Iran war, I said here we're going to dip then go up to 85K or so and then come down to the 60K 58K or so and then blow off top at least 103 104K at least, right?

[00:02:52]That's where I stopped drawing the line.

[00:02:54]But two things has happened since then that I wasn't aware of.

[00:02:57]Well, I couldn't I kind of knew it was coming, but I couldn't predict at that time when I drew it, right? And you adjust right? Because now we have as things develop now we have more information.

[00:03:07]One is that the Iran war basically delayed everything.

[00:03:12]Delayed everything by about four weeks.

[00:03:14]So Bitcoin went down from here as the Iran war started and then came back up and now we're coming down to do this move. This move down to retouch the low again. But because the stock market is in a blow off mode is in a blow off mode so I don't think this happens, right? So I don't think this happens. I still think to some extent this chart is still working out, but it's been delayed and also the low won't go this low to 60K.

[00:03:38]So this dip to 70, I probably try to enter a long here at at 70. Well, here's my silver chart, but here is my Bitcoin chart. So I've mostly sold basically I said, you know, to the folks that were watching, I said, "I'm getting out of my Bitcoin longs here, right? Basically, I was expecting 84-ish. We didn't get there. We got 83. Okay, I'm not going to wait. Not going to wait. So, basically, get most of myself out. Uh and and if we dip to the 70s here, I'll add again.

[00:04:10]I'll add again, right? If it breaks If it breaks down, then we could head to to the uh to that 60k-ish double bottom. Um and look, uh I've said this many times before, but just to make sure for folks who are who haven't caught what I'm saying yet, the reason why I talk about this uh 50k 60k area is because I had drawn this line, this orange line, to come down exactly to touch this blue line. What's this blue line? It's the 200-week moving average. 200-week moving average.

[00:04:46]We touched there, flirted with this 58k area, maybe even as low as mid-50s, then we bounce.

[00:04:53]Again, because of the because of the uh the the uh blow-off top that's happening in stocks right now, I don't quite think that's going to happen. The reason why is because this 200-week moving average basically has had flirted with the Bitcoin major Bitcoin bottoms all this time. 2015 bottom, 2019 bear bottom, COVID crash bottom, 2022 bottom, we actually went through and spent a few months down there. And now, basically, here we go again. A lot of people calling for 30, 40k.

[00:05:25]I can't say 100% it won't happen, but my strategy is to buy before then.

[00:05:31]I think we're bottoming somewhere I think we've already bottomed, probably, around this 59k area, and I think we make a higher bottom this type. Provided Provided there's the S&P 500 remains in blow-off top mode, which it looks like it is.

[00:05:46]And um uh to be to be very strict, this weekly close for this week has to close above this level, which is 6 749.7.

[00:05:58]Let's call it 750. If we can close this week at 750 on the weekly, then that's another week of confirmed, right, close above.

[00:06:07]Right, this topping tail, so the blow-off top continues. So, yeah, I mean that case I I'm not going to stay bearish on on Bitcoin. So, this some people say, well, why has Bitcoin not underperformed like this? And then it must be it must be because the 4-year cycle. I hold a different opinion, and I'm going to tell you what's the one or two sectors that's actually performing really well, outperforming everything right now.

[00:06:35]Before we answer those questions, first let's answer the question of which crypto exchange does Pablo Hemanus?

[00:06:39]Well, Pablo's this exchange that's non-KYC. That means you don't need to show any ID. That means even can't see who you are. So, the exchange can't see you, the IRS can't see you, the tax office can't see who you are, FBI, CIA, nobody can see you, total privacy.

[00:06:53]That's why Pablo chose to make this exclusive deal with them, trade and win up to $9,000, right, exclusive reward, just by just by trading on this Pablo deal, and limited time only. So, look at this, folks, already up and running, making half a mill of trades and 3 and 1/2 mill of trades, but you don't need to get anywhere near that. You just have to be in the top 60.

[00:07:14]Top 60 to win a prize. And this is not an exchange-wide competition, this is only for the Pablo followers who click on this link, right? So, just be be in the top 60 of that. This is one of like two exchanges that I like that I use, basically, to trade my silver. A lot of the trades that I I make because all the things that I talk about that are bullish, such as, you know, silver, platinum, gold, palladium, copper, natural gas, uranium, all the things that I consider bullish, right? Probably Bitcoin sooner as well, are all on this exchange. So, uh if you're watching this on uh YouTube right now, then the link is in the description below. The link is in the description below. But, if you're watching it on this platform or other social media platforms, that's okay. Just click on my profile page and then there's my Stan link, right? Such as this social media platform, which is click on my profile page and uh that there is my Stan link.

[00:08:07]We click on that. Should be the first deal that pops up because it's a great deal. Okay, let's get back to the markets, folks. But, remember this great deal is only available on the Pablo Human link, only on the Pablo link for limited time only.

[00:08:18]Again, let's get back to uh to Bitcoin.

[00:08:20]So, the situation with with Bitcoin is that it's underperformed everything, right?

[00:08:26]It's literally I've basically been saying a blow-off top and it's playing out in almost everything, right? Like even gold and silver might have another leg up. And if gold and silver has another if even even oil. Look at Look at oil. Oil's having a blow-off top.

[00:08:42]What if What if this is actually not the not the the the the the the end of oil?

[00:08:48]What if there's another escalation and 3 weeks from now we dip down here 3 weeks from now 3 months from now boom, right?

[00:08:54]What if this is just halfway point? We go boom. We go 150 or something, right?

[00:08:58]Gold and silver it's you know, that could be that could be the uh the the uh halfway point as well. What if gold goes to 6,000 7,000, right? What if silver goes to uh uh $150? That could easily happen.

[00:09:15]The the pullback happening in gold and silver, by the way. I've been talking about this for a while now. So, um look, I'm just trying to say Bitcoin is the only one that's underperforming and what's the reason?

[00:09:26]What's the reason why Bitcoin's underperforming everything? Here was my silver trade, for example, when it dipped like, you know, into the 60s, I just bought and then slowly dollar cost average my way out. There's been three or four sales since then and uh we're mostly out of silver. Um because I told everyone, I said, "Look, one more dip coming. One more dip." And on gold, that's going to cause one more dip in silver. I think it turns up after this one more dip. I'm not bearish, by the way. So, I think we dip around here.

[00:09:55]We probably get halted around this 40 Sorry, 4,100 or 4,000 area. A reason why is because of uh this trend line support here.

[00:10:08]Right? This trend line support here. And also, you've got a bunch of bottoms.

[00:10:11]You've got a bunch of bottoms and tops here. Right? So, this Right? So, if we if we continue this trend line, right? This this trend line here.

[00:10:21]So, 4,100 [clears throat] seems to be a reasonable guess where we make a head shoulder, head, shoulder, inverse shoulder and head shoulder. And so, therefore, this becomes a neckline, if you if you like. And we shoulder, head, shoulder. We break the neckline here on the bounce in summer and off we go again. It may not be straight pop up to new all-time highs, but I expect us to bounce above 500. So, 4,000-ish area first, then 500. Now, there are other people who are more bearish and who say, "Oh, we come down, touch the bottom of this flag, which is 3,000 this this bull flag, by the way. 3,000 500 around here. They might have They might be right. Like, if we This is Let's put it on a weekly so we can see this better.

[00:11:07]This the bull flag uh flag pole and here is the flag. We bounce off 3,000 500-ish area and up we go. And for the people who say that, they're expecting us to do uh uh this on silver.

[00:11:21]Basically, hit 55, 54 area. And for the same reason, I say that can happen, but it's not my preferred scenario. It's not the scenario I have in mind. The scenario I have in mind is basically um it's basically around the 65 or low 60s area. We're through like this and up we go. Once again, this is because of this trend line here, this trend line here, and that's it's by linking these bottoms. Um I can see why the people wanted to go back to 55 for a retouch, retest of this this level. May or may not happen. May or may not happen, right? Um If it does, I'll surely add more silver, but I think we might the buyers might because everyone's waiting for it might just front run those guys and buy at say 60 or 65 in this sort of area and then bounce and up we go. And I think we'll form a cup and handle. Now, why why is Bitcoin the only one who's been underperforming like this? The reason according to some is because it's a 4-year cycle. If it is a really a 4-year cycle, then you should be fine. Then you should just wait for October, November, right?

[00:12:37]And just buy again. Just go all in. That's not my advice at all. I'm not giving you financial advice. I'm just saying if you believe that, if you think that's how [clears throat] Bitcoin works and it has been working so far, then basically the last bottom was here. Was here. Look, look, the 15.something K.

[00:12:57]Uh the bottom here was November 2022. So, November 2026, Bitcoin 30s, 40s, right? Here's November 34K, 40K, whatever it is. Just buy here, right? Bet your house, mortgage your house. That's what they That's what the Bitcoin maxis and the people who believe in the 4-year cycle would believe.

[00:13:16]I would not do that. I would say don't do that. In fact, I don't think that's how it's playing out. Even though even though this topped on the week of the 4-year cycle, I think was because CZ and Binance crashed the markets and it basically just hurt Bitcoin and hasn't been able to come back. And um even though everything is up, everything is up, right? Even natural gas is up, aluminum, copper, everything is up, but crypto is down, right? So, the um By the way, what is doing really well?

[00:13:50]What is actually doing really well is is this market. Uh By the way, that's that's another gold chart. If you understand what's happening there, the chart I wanted to show you guys is basically So, quickly, before I show you what's working in the stock market. This is a gold chart.

[00:14:08]The the the black line is the percentage of gold reserves held by central banks.

[00:14:12]So, at its all-time high, 2/3 of all reserve assets held by central bank gold reserves used to be two almost 2/3, 62.4% used to be gold.

[00:14:26]And back then, uh and back then, the the gold line is basically uh the gold allocation by private investors.

[00:14:35]So, people like yourself watching held 8.3% of their assets in gold. Whereas today, central banks are realizing US dollar may not be that dependable again cuz one, they print too much. Two, they're in a lot of debt. Three, um the wrong war. Maybe that's giving signals US can't be the global military hegemon around the world anymore. They can still dominate in AI.

[00:14:58]They can still be the technical te- technological uh hegemon, except there's a challenger coming called China.

[00:15:07]Can't [clears throat] talk about that.

[00:15:07]People get triggered. Uh or it still can be the the financial hegemon of the world like Wall Street, uh like uh you know, no one's going to challenge Wall Street soon, even though Shanghai and Hong Kong can be a clear number number two or number three.

[00:15:23]But anyways, so now they're buying 26% {point} 6% of their gold is in central central banks reserve assets in gold. So like 40% of where they used to be at the all-time high in 1980, but uh for private folks like yourself, only 2.7% only 2.7%. So for private for the central banks, they have to more than double and for private folks, they have to triple. They have to triple just to get to where they were in 1980.

[00:15:53]And I think the situation we're in right now is worse than 1980. The situation we're in right now is basically worse than than 1980.

[00:16:02]Um now the the Here this what industry is actually doing really well compared to everything else. People are like, "Oh look that it's a blow off top in in SP 500. I should have just bought the SP 500, man." Well, buying [clears throat] the SP 500 or the Nasdaq, man, won't really help you because uh look at look at all of this year.

[00:16:23]Basically, this is the magnificent seven. The blue line is the magnificent seven. It's gone flat. It's gone nowhere. It's basically moved up and down up and down. Basically, this was the wrong war, right? Like uh whoa, this is like almost a 15% drop in the magnificent seven and this is even now it's basically up 5% on the year.

[00:16:45]What's up huge is semiconductors, right?

[00:16:48]Semiconductors index went up 20% and then a new wrong war happened and then basically still never went into loss territory, came back to zero or 100%, which is no gains and now up 80% in in just the last six weeks or so, seven weeks up 80% since then. So up 80% on the year. Um in other words, basically, so if you've been holding Bitcoin for the last few months.

[00:17:17]Um if you've been holding Bitcoin for the last few months, Bitcoin only or crypto only, then it's been feeling It's a bad feeling. It's feeling pretty bad, right?

[00:17:27]When everything's going up. Um >> [clears throat] >> but if you held some semiconductors like Nvidia, AMD, you would be ecstatic, right? Um now, why am I talking about this? It's not like I was against Bitcoin or anything.

[00:17:42]I basically stayed bullish Bitcoin this whole time. So, what right have you got to talk about this, Pablo? Well, the guys in my Discord should know this better than anyone else.

[00:17:51]I don't talk as much about gold and silver, right? Or China and Hong Kong stocks or uranium out on the social media platform because the so the media the social media algorithm just doesn't promote doesn't pump your videos if you talk about things that your audience doesn't want to talk doesn't want to know. So, the people who are watching most people are watching for my crypto content. So, I sometimes everyone in many episodes I talk about Hong Kong or China stocks. And you get stupid comments like, "Oh, he's a CP CPC CCP spy. He's a CCP spy." Right? So, it's it's basically get idiots like this. So, the videos don't perform as well. I still talk about gold and silver, right?

[00:18:28]But I've been talking about uranium, uh gold and silver miners, right? Lithium miners and also well, which are yet to perform, but that's that was only like about 4 weeks ago. Uh and also European weapons stocks. A lot of them haven't made big runs. China Hong Kong stocks have made big runs. The Hong Kong stocks have pulled back, but you can't deny they made a big run, right? They They actually made like a two with three, some even four, five X run for some of them before this pullback. And that's normal because at the start of a new bull market, you go you go up and you make a steep pullback. And that happens even if you look at the the semiconductors index, right? Even if you look at the semiconductors index, this thing that's performing that's doing a blow-off top, when you look at the start of this bull run more than 10 years ago, it was also like a huge run-up and came back. That's just what happens at the start of a bull run. Now, the message of what I'm trying to say is to stay diversified, right? To seek out new opportunities and don't get married into this one idea of I'm a crypto only type of guy. I'm a crypto only type of guy. It is also I'm talking about this because this is a warning. This is a warning to all of us because this is for the first time the one industry, chips, is now makes up 18%. This orange line, see? It makes up 18% 18% of the entire index of the entire index of the entire S&P 500, which has never happened before. So, that's a warning that this is a blow-off top and it's getting into dangerous territory in the next 6 to 12 months.

[00:19:57]Okay, catch you guys next