Nothing Can Save Starmer From A Scathing Local Election Result | Robert Crampton

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[00:00:00]What's happened with Starmmer is I think he got in by default because people were just fed up with the tries. Uh he got a sort of fake landslide. He had the honeymoon period of about a weekend. He then tried to get his signature measure through which was on uh winter fuel allowance and caved in. His authority was gone from me. His authority was gone from that moment and I think the public sensed that and two years in he has become a joke figure.

[00:00:25]>> The May local elections are now a week away. Pollster and Conservative peer Robert Hwood has made a prediction overnight which if correct would be a nightmare for Labor. He forecasts the worst midterm result ever for a government, suggesting that Labour may be on course to lose 1,850 of the 2558 council seats it's defending in England.

[00:00:48]He says the tries will do badly too, losing around 600 seats. And one beneficiary would be Nigel Farams, Nigel Farage's Reform UK, tipped to gain roughly 1,550 seats, though interestingly with a slightly lower share of the vote than last year. Meanwhile, on the left, Zack Palansky's Greens can win 500 extra seats. And Times columnist Robert Grampton has been out speaking to voters in Hackne, which is currently Labor. But it does seem to be the Green's best prospect in London. And you think that too, don't you, Robert?

[00:01:22]>> I do. I was out in Hackne on Tuesday. I mean, this is a a council that's been Labor for it's been bar since 1965. It's been Labor for 57 of those years, I think, majority Labor control. It's now got 43 Labor counselors, six Tory, only four Greens and four independent socialists. And so from a base of only four counselors, I think the Greens are going to take it. I spoke to well over a dozen people. I know it's not an exact science but it's a snapshot young and old black and white male and female cocknney and new arrivals if you will.

[00:01:58]Every single one of them is going to vote green. Moreover, every single one of them was a recent Labor voter. Uh most of them as recent as 2024 and they are 100% going green. So I just let give me give give us a little taste of the sort of things that they say.

[00:02:15]>> Uh youngsters they love rent they love rent controls. I mean Zach Palansky has made a big issue of rent controls. Uh and they moving on from following on from the guy in New York and that is that is obviously where where people are paying half of their income on for a shared room in a in a in a house share.

[00:02:34]That is obviously extremely appealing.

[00:02:36]Gaza uh had massive purchase. Uh that's become an absolute touchstone for younger people. Uh not with Muslim or otherwise.

[00:02:46]>> And when they talk about Gaza, they talk about >> they think the Labour Party has been insufficiently critical of is Israel's military action in Gaza. Uh and they, you know, you just have to I went to an event about a month ago when I was going to write something when I knew I'd be writing something about this that Palansky was having in Hackne just essentially recording his podcast in a theater. 700 people sold out with atmosphere of a revivalist meeting and he just comes on the stage and you more or less just has to say the word Palestine or Gaza or rent controls and there's a big cheer. Uh so it it's a bit like it reminded me of Corbyn 10 years ago. I think that uh that sort of youthful enthusiasm for Corbyn that was there that we saw famously at Glastonbury maybe whatever it was seven eight years ago and we thought had maybe dissipated I think it's now been uh it's been funneled into the it's there bubbling up again with the greens >> so interestingly one of the things one of the ways that you always know in the times when there's a big switch of opinion is that somebody suggests sending Robert Crarampton to find out what people think uh and so >> usually up north actually papers are in working order.

[00:03:52]>> And precisely when you've been up north, you've come back with that uh view that you came back and told were one of the first people to tell me how well reform were doing and previously how well Boris Johnson's conservatives were doing. So you can you can pick this up from individuals. But I is the the sort of thing that you're hearing from these Green voters sort of similar in quality and emotion as the reform voters.

[00:04:19]>> Yes. Yes. I mean, part of it is policy, like as I say, the housing, the rent controls and Gaza, but part of it is absolute dis disillusionment is is too moderate a word. Uh absolute skep skepticism, scathing skepticism about established parties in a way that we saw directed at the Conservative Party and that now in very short order we're seeing directed at the Labour Party. Uh so, it's both. It's, you know, they don't do anything for us. Let's time for a change. Let's shake it up. give give these guys a try. Uh and it's also got then there's also the hard politics of people saying things they agree with.

[00:04:53]>> How personal is it to Karma? In other words, if Labour responded to such a defeat by saying, well, let's change our leader, would it make any difference to this sentiment?

[00:05:02]>> Uh that depends who was going to replace him, of course, but I think it is quite personal to him. I think I think you get this occasionally in politics. It's not just when somebody becomes unpopular, it's that they become a little bit of a joke. I think uh you might possibly have seen that with William Hagen, the baseball cap. Yeah.

[00:05:21]And not to be rude about William and I know that you were involved as well.

[00:05:24]>> Working when somebody just it doesn't they get the public makes its mind up.

[00:05:30]We discussed this before. The public makes its mind up frighteningly quickly.

[00:05:33]I remember going to a focus group when Michael Howard was the Tory leader and the and the folk they decided within about 8 seconds they didn't like the guy. Yeah. Uh and what's happened with Starmmer is I think he got in uh by default because people were just fed up with the tries. Uh he got a sort of fake landslide. He had then the honeymoon period of about a weekend. He then tried to get his signature measure through which was on uh winter fuel allowance and caved in. His authority was gone for me. His authority was gone from that moment. And I think the public sensed that and two years in he has become a joke figure. It's like it doesn't matter what he says. He could rescue a child.

[00:06:12]It's like Donald Trump saying he could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and people would still vote for him. Karma in reverse could rescue 10 babies from a burning building and people would still think he was a bit of a plonker. Do you know what I mean? That's what's happened. And so the the sort of and you get you you get that I got that from young and old. And it's something you don't see very often. Even when politicians are really unpopular, you don't see this sort of general feeling that uh they're they're a joke. Well, that was Robert Crarampton and I've learned from experience over times to take that super seriously. So, thank you very much indeed, Robert, for giving that view. That was really helpful and insightful.