Bitcoin CRITICAL MOMENT: Bears Are Close To Validation

Added: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]What's going on, everybody? It's your boy, Cesar, and we are talking about Bitcoin today, BTCUSD.

[00:00:06]Hit that like button, subscribe. Thank you all for being here. It is the 14th day of May. My voice is a little bit scratchy. I don't know if you can tell over the over the the video or not, but if you're noticing that, that's just what that is. My throat's a little bit sore, and that's okay. Here we are on the 14th day of May. Enough about me, let's talk about you. 79.7k with 11 hours left in the day. Yesterday, we did close We did close right at 79.3k, which if you guys remember, this is the line in the sand really to watch. 79.7k is also pretty important level.

[00:00:42]And I'm sure we'll go over that in this video as to why, but I think 79.3k is the most important level right now to watch because if we're looking at this pivot here, this very significant pivot right here, from a high point to a low point before this rally started, right? This was the the low move that kicked off the rally.

[00:01:01]Whoops.

[00:01:04]Looking at this from a high to a low, the 1272 is a very important level to maintain as support. Now, we did go below it, and I have said if we go below it, but we're still closing above it, that's okay. And you know, we're we're right there at 7300. The close literally happened at 73 13, or sorry, 79 13.

[00:01:28]If we close like $50 lower, I don't think it would have made such dramatic difference that that means we go down, but we are still in this kind of critical territory. We were in it yesterday, we're in it now. We're in this very critical territory where if we don't behave well soon, we will see the price drop lower. And the day that we get a close below 79.3k, I will probably open up a short position with very tight stop losses in mind, but um and low leverage, too, so that's forgiving, but >> [clears throat] >> for right now as far as I can tell this this is fine. This is still fine. You're still technically, if you recover from here, finding support at prior resistance, finding support at your 1.272. It's not problematic and the volume itself hasn't really picked up at least on the daily time frame. It's nothing too dramatic. Um you know, we look we look over here on this drop the volume didn't really pick up either.

[00:02:24]On this drop here the volume didn't really pick up either. We were choppy and sideways we're still in that sideways range, but if we were to break out of this ascending channel, this ascending kind of formation that we've been in for months now, for over a month now.

[00:02:40]I would think that we'd see a little bit more volume. Whereas here when we're moving down, we're kind of in this choppy sideways zone, I would think that we're still we we we would we would not need as much volume here, we might need more volume. Or we would see more volume. We're right at that breakout territory. We haven't technically broken out yet, so this this volume, even though it's not there, it could come in.

[00:03:00]Anyways, let's move on.

[00:03:02]Let's talk about the short-term stuff.

[00:03:03]Hold on.

[00:03:04]>> [snorts] >> Uh I'm a little bit sick. 1-hour time frame, looking at this here.

[00:03:10]>> [snorts] >> We are dilly-dallying. We are moving up, moving down, chopping a little bit. This does, in my opinion, resemble a bear flag. I mean, if we flip this on its head, looks like a bull flag, does it not?

[00:03:26]Looks like we'd be setting up to go here. The thing that really gets me too is we're looking at the price the way it performs.

[00:03:35]>> [clears throat and cough] >> From this high, you move down, it's a pretty aggressive move. From this high and down, it's an even more aggressive move. It's larger and more volume coming in. From this high to this down here, it's an even more aggressive move. It might not be as big from a high to low standpoint, but it moves a lot faster and there's more volume coming in.

[00:03:54]When you're picking up the momentum to the downside, that doesn't make me think that you're going to stop. It's when you're when we're starting to see waning in the downside. Whenever we're starting to see that kind of stuff, that's that's what makes me think that we're going to move up.

[00:04:10]Time will tell. We'll see how it goes, but just just looking at that in itself paired with this bear flag kind of idea, I think it would be more than appropriate if we close below 79.3k on any given day.

[00:04:26]>> [cough and clears throat] >> I think it'd be more than appropriate to consider 76.8k or lower to be an acceptable target.

[00:04:35]Bear flags, they're measured moves. This would be the measured move here. This target is just an idea. You can break out and fall short of that idea. You can break out and exceed that idea. Maybe you hit it right on the head.

[00:04:46]But it's right around 77k, just below there actually, that we would interact if this bear flag is to prevail.

[00:04:54]This is a nice hourly candle right now.

[00:04:56]I don't care.

[00:04:58]It's not enough. If you want to recover if you want this target move to be absolved, we need to break out of this range to the upside. We need to provide that we're not in a bear flag, but that we're in some type of horizontal channel, maybe a bart like pattern, and we move back up. We need some upside. It doesn't have to be as aggressive, but we need to break out of this to the upside.

[00:05:22]Oh, what's going on here?

[00:05:26]Something something is playing on my phone.

[00:05:31]That's odd.

[00:05:33]What is it? Hold on. Hold on.

[00:05:41]That was weird.

[00:05:44]There was some like music playing on my phone, but it sounded like it was from a video game.

[00:05:49]It was like classical music. Anyways, 79.7k.

[00:05:58]Man, speaking of video games, guys, I think people are starting to get it now.

[00:06:01]Video games don't melt your brain. Some Some do. Of course, there are mindless games out there, but when it comes to learning, music and video games are like the best ways to learn.

[00:06:12]And even as a kid, when I was a kid, I was like, that doesn't make sense that video games melt your brain because they're telling a story. I learned a lot of vocabulary as a kid from video games.

[00:06:20]It's telling a story, you're learning things, man. You're If you're playing difficult games, at least. And there's ways that they can be a lot more educational, don't get me wrong, but just just on that note, I don't know, just that that music playing.

[00:06:32]There's classical music in there. Like, when else do do teenage boys listen to classical music? They probably don't, other than in video games. You know, that's when they hear classical instruments being played.

[00:06:43]Um and then you learn extensive vocabulary, different vocabulary from from different time periods or different uh fields of whatever. Anyways, 79.7k.

[00:06:54]People are starting to learn that that video games are actually very good for teaching. I mean, literally, to train our pilots, we we have them train in a video game simulated airplane driving thing, you know? Like an airplane simulation.

[00:07:10]Quarterbacks, professional athletes, they train in simulated environments, video games.

[00:07:17]Anyways, that's a thing. Anyways, 79.7k. Totally off topic there.

[00:07:23]Uh the 1-hour time frame. This is something that gets me a little bit excited here, okay?

[00:07:27]A little bit excited that we can move up.

[00:07:29]We look at this, we are clearly in a downtrend. Lower lows, lower highs. I'm not drawing it the best, but you can see what I'm going for, more or less, right?

[00:07:35]You can see this. We have broken out of this a little bit.

[00:07:39]>> [clears throat] >> We even found support on this before, and to no avail. We still saw lower highs overall. But we're breaking out of it again.

[00:07:47]We are bouncing off of it again. Can we get higher highs? Can we really Can we separate from this?

[00:07:53]Typically, whenever you see a downtrend in the RSI, and it's just the 1-hour time frame, so it's not that exciting, but when you see a downtrend in the RSI, it's after you get oversold that you break out. When you see an uptrend in the RSI, like we did here, it's after you get overbought that you break out to the downside. And we've hit the oversold zone. We've had a little bit of a double bottom look on the 1-hour time frame. Again, it's just the 1-hour, but to be fair, here we need the 1-hour to show up.

[00:08:21]A move up from here could imply a move up above these highs.

[00:08:28]Could imply a break from this downward-sloping channel here in the price.

[00:08:33]And if we see more volume come in, that would be very encouraging. There's a fly. Got to do karate.

[00:08:39]Flies take karate. At least they hit my kung fu. Sure.

[00:08:43]Anyways, it looks like there's a lot of volume here on the 1-hour time frame, but again, if we look at the daily time frame, there's really not a whole lot of volume. So, if we start to move up with more volume, sometimes the price does this when it's being boring and there's low volume, you think that this is high volume, but then you actually then you get the real the real volume comes in.

[00:09:02]You know what I mean? If we can get some some volume to build as we're breaking out of this and we're we're moving up here, getting it back above 80k, 81k, I think that would look really good. Oh, there's a spider.

[00:09:15]Hi, little guy.

[00:09:17]What are you doing?

[00:09:19]He's not so little.

[00:09:21]Man, I need to go get a cup. I'm going to go get a cup. I'll be right back.

[00:09:42]>> Oh, no. No, no, no. You don't go down.

[00:09:46]You stay up here, sir.

[00:09:48]Oh, he he knew he was getting caught.

[00:09:52]I'll take him outside later.

[00:09:55]>> [clears throat] >> Shout out to the people who don't kill spiders. Anyways, man, all kinds of shocks and stuff today, aren't we?

[00:10:06]The RSI, while being overall bearish, and you are at a pivotal moment right now, there are some bullish prospects here.

[00:10:14]And it would be nice if we could see a move up, a little bit of a move up here pretty soon.

[00:10:18]Stochastics are weird. They look weird. I mean, technically, you're bullish, but you're also rejecting the overbought zone. You reset, you could come down.

[00:10:28]The MACD is building bullish momentum.

[00:10:33]You are in a bearish phase overall. You do have a bit of this lower low, lower high trend in the MACD as well.

[00:10:40]Just like the RSI, I think it'd be important to see that trend break.

[00:10:44]It'd be more important to see getting above the zero level here. Want to get above there.

[00:10:51]And on the 1-hour time frame, what is Thursday today? I mean, this could take days to occur occur.

[00:11:00]It could happen between today and the end of tomorrow, Friday. We've got more than enough time for that. So, maybe between now and the end of the week, we actually do move up a little bit. That'd be good.

[00:11:13]4-hour time frame. Looking at this here.

[00:11:15]But again, we close below 79.3k.

[00:11:19]>> [snorts] >> We break out of this bear flag to the downside. Volume comes in, a little bit of volume comes in on the 1-hour relative to the 1-hour or the 4-hour.

[00:11:27]Yeah, that's it, man. This this was the top.

[00:11:30]And typically, in this environment where you this M shape, where you move up like this, and you get below the nipple here, typically that's it. That's the That's the end of it. But, you did that, and now you're back above that point. So, it's kind of interesting.

[00:11:49]Like here, if you have this M shape, once you get below this point, that's when you made your move down.

[00:11:58]It was a failed M cuz you had a higher low, so you moved up.

[00:12:01]If we move up from here, this would be a failed M as well, and that that definitely, in my opinion, would would lead to higher highs.

[00:12:09]Looking at the 4-hour indicators, the RSI here is also in a bit of a downtrend.

[00:12:15]Lower lows, lower highs.

[00:12:18]You're also breaking out of this downtrend to the upside.

[00:12:21]You are consistently, since April, the beginning of April, getting overbought, and consistently not getting oversold at all.

[00:12:33]This is the closest attempt to the oversolds that we had, and we rejected right off it. This is actually a really good look.

[00:12:39]I would treat it just like this.

[00:12:44]I would treat it maybe obviously just like this. Let's see Let's see what we did back here.

[00:12:51]I mean, that was a low point there.

[00:12:54]We had a slightly higher low, moved on up. We saw relative higher highs.

[00:13:00]And then right here, of course, we moved up as well. We saw relative higher highs.

[00:13:05]>> [clears throat] >> The only difference being here and the last one, we had higher lows. This one, we have slightly lower lows.

[00:13:12]Little bit of a different dynamic here.

[00:13:14]Your MACD was bouncing off the zero.

[00:13:18]Let's see.

[00:13:20]Where was the last one?

[00:13:23]Did I just skip it?

[00:13:26]Right here.

[00:13:27]Here, your MACD was below the zero a little bit.

[00:13:31]That's cuz you were choppy sideways, whereas here you were kind of moving up.

[00:13:34]Here we're choppy sideways, so similar environment there.

[00:13:39]The stochastics do look bullish. The MACD is bearish. The RSI is bullish overall. So, on the one hour, on the four hour, there's definitely enough room to believe in a small move up.

[00:13:53]This isn't enough to say that we're going to see higher highs, but I would think from here, at this point where things really have become bearish, if you were to reverse that right now and come back up above 81k, I would think that there's very little stopping you from seeing higher highs here.

[00:14:18]The higher highs would be anywhere from 84 to 85.4k.

[00:14:22]We look at this on the daily time frame.

[00:14:24]We take that pivot from a high to a low.

[00:14:27]You just missed your golden ratio zone here, and that's right at the the base of this level.

[00:14:33]I could see you going anywhere from about 85 and a half, 86k to 84k, 83.7k.

[00:14:39]I could see that happening.

[00:14:42]I don't want to log in.

[00:14:44]I need to. I need to just do it whenever I'm not making the video.

[00:14:48]It's still loading. Whatever.

[00:14:51]Lame.

[00:14:52]Um I want to log in. I wish I could look at it right now. If we could look at CoinGlass and look at the leverage positions, you'd see that there are a bunch of shorts that have piled on over the past few days.

[00:15:03]And shorts actually outweigh longs over the last 24 hours and over the last week. Longs still far outweigh shorts.

[00:15:10]We still have a lot of of clearing out to do to the downside, and I do believe a reckoning is coming.

[00:15:16]This either is the top, or we have a slightly higher high to go, and then we we I'm sticking with the slightly higher high option for now, but again, we're we're just a few hundred dollars away, maybe like five hundred dollars away from disproving that. All you got to do is close below 79.3k today and at that point we become bearish.

[00:15:39]Depending on what the indicators look like, but still.

[00:15:43]Bearish divergence at the top, the RSI does have lower lows, and we have higher lows in the price. We do seem to be in this kind of higher low trajectory here.

[00:15:53]Right there, right? We've done the classic thing that Bitcoin likes to do.

[00:15:56]It goes just below this line and that's where it finds support. We are finding support right now, don't be mistaken.

[00:16:02]Trump and Xi and all the uh Silicon Valley elites, they're meeting in China right now, making who knows what kind of deals.

[00:16:16]Some good news comes out, we could pump on that news, and then you sell the news, and then we dump down. We see a little pump like that, that is just enough to take us right up to our golden ratio zone.

[00:16:28]Just [snorts] enough to get the markets excited, just enough to clear out all the shorts that are piled on, and that clear out right right around these levels. That's where the liquidation levels are.

[00:16:38]And then it's a fake out, and then we dump down.

[00:16:41]I don't believe that this is going to start a bull market. I don't believe that we're going to go higher from here.

[00:16:45]Well, too much higher, but just a little bit higher.

[00:16:51]Daily RSI overall looks bullish.

[00:16:54]Stochastics overall look bullish. You're at the point to bounce for both of them.

[00:16:58]The MACD, of course, overall is bullish as well.

[00:17:01]We bounced here last time. We saw basically the same reading in the histogram last time and bounced there.

[00:17:07]We could do it again. We're slowly forming bearish divergence, and maybe just maybe we get one more little drive of green, we form that final bit of bearish divergence, and then that's where we sell off.

[00:17:18]>> [clears throat] >> Time will tell. We'll see how it goes. I got nothing else for you guys. Again, we're maintaining the bullish stance to higher highs, slightly higher highs, anywhere from 83 point uh 7K to really even upwards to like 89K is a possible target.

[00:17:39]But that all changes if we close below 79.3K.

[00:17:42]If we close today below 79.7K, if we we closed yesterday and today below that that level, I think that would be problematic as well.

[00:17:54]We take this high to low.

[00:17:55]Closing below this 382 is not good.

[00:17:58]You don't want to close below this 382 two days in a row. So, if we close below it one day and then get back above it the next day, it's actually a classic bullish signal that should take us higher. This is where those higher 80K levels come from.

[00:18:10]But still, I think we're going to have a hard time getting above these areas of support.

[00:18:15]We'll likely find resistance between here and there.

[00:18:18]Send it back down, working our way down going into the months ahead. Hit that like button. Subscribe. Thank you all for being here. I'll see you on the next one. Take care. Bye-bye.