Severe Weather Chances Are INCREASING In A HUGE Way...

[00:00:01]Well, just as expected, our severe weather chances over the next few days are beginning to increase. I'm seeing some uptrending signals for some of these days that have me a kind of increasingly concerned here.

[00:00:12]Fortunately, for right now, I'm not I'm not super concerned about anything specifically, but we are going to break down all the latest and greatest model guidance this evening. I know this video is late, but uh I thought I'd go ahead and get it out there. I had some mission trip training earlier.

[00:00:24]Uh so, we had some things going on. But, either way, let's go ahead and get started today. We got a lot of severe weather to talk among other things. So, to go ahead and get started here, we're going to start off by looking at the next 2 days-ish worth of outlooks here, and then focus on the longer range a little bit more. So, this is today or sorry, tomorrow's outlook. Today is already ongoing and already done really.

[00:00:44]So, we have a marginal risk tomorrow uh in areas of Colorado, New Mexico, uh the panhandles here and into western areas of Kansas. This is driven off of a 5% risk of damaging wind gusts here and a 5% risk of hail, some of which could be on the larger side up here in this black dash region. So, that is all we're looking at for tomorrow, and here's the model guidance for this. So, we go ahead and go through the afternoon. This is some pretty unimpressive stuff here. We get I mean, the stage triple R model, and uh here's the times on it at the top here, and you see I mean, there's a storm here, there's a few storms over here. But, overall, not a whole lot goes through the area, but any storms that do form could uh kind of pack a punch with some gusty winds and some hail. For the most part though, this is fine. We do have more activity down here kind of along the Gulf Coast. My head's probably in the way of that, but for the most part, it's not really worth even seeing here. And we'll take this through the evening. Maybe some more storms could fire up in west Kansas around midnight, and then move on through and exit the area. By the way, uh let me know down in the comments if you are enjoying this thing I have up at the top. It should be on here uh when it comes to looking at the time. I found that a very helpful addition here when watching my videos back. It seemed to make a lot of sense here. So, let me know what you're thinking with that. So, now, to go on to tomorrow uh or sorry, the day after this. I keep thinking tomorrow here. This is Tuesday's outlook. So, we got a marginal risk here across Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, and lower Michigan here. And this could expand, this could change, but this is the latest that we've got here.

[00:02:09]So, again, this is all we know about this is that there's a 5% risk of some severe weather. We don't know about the specific hazards or where the most significant weather could occur, but there's a chance of severe weather up here across the areas of the Great Lakes and Midwest for Tuesday. So, we go from this and we look at this. So, here is the latest RRFS A model run. This is not the best model, but it's the only one for today that goes out far enough. The other models are kind of in and out of being operational. They're doing testing, so sometimes they're not here, but either way, this is 3:00 p.m.

[00:02:43]tomorrow. And you see some storms ongoing right across the risk area.

[00:02:46]Could be some hail or wind producers, maybe an isolated tornado out of these if they remain discreet. You never can rule it out. And we'll take this through the evening hours. Everything diminishes with time. And we'll go ahead and take this out to Wednesday morning. And Wednesday morning, Wednesday in general, could be a bigger day. So, now now that we've done this, we're going to transition into a a bit of a longer range discussion.

[00:03:08]Once we get to day four through eight, that's what the medium to long range here. So, our day four outlook now looks like this. Yesterday, it was just a slight risk, just the yellow. Now, it's an enhanced risk at day four. This is probably going to be the most significant day in the sequence here.

[00:03:23]Thursday could be pretty big as well, but this is the biggest synoptically as in the large scale features look most impressive for Wednesday. So, what we've got here is a slight risk equivalent in the lighter shade of yellow and an enhanced risk in the darker shade. This includes areas of the northern 2/3 of Missouri here and kind of the the central and southern third or so of Illinois. Obviously, this is surrounded by a much larger slight risk here. All we know about it is this. We don't know any more specifics, but we're really focusing on this Missouri to Illinois corridor here for the strongest storm.

[00:03:56]So, we take this and we look at this.

[00:03:58]This is the European model. So, this is a going to be a lower resolution model.

[00:04:02]I know, but this is the best we've got for this range here. So, we start off times on at the top here and we work through. This is Wednesday morning, right? So, you can see it you should be able to up here. There's a surface low starting to eject kind of through the picture here. It's come from the the Central Plains. Now, it's further into the Southern Plains at this point all the way into South Dakota here. And if you notice by the number, it says 989.

[00:04:25]It's possible it's even stronger than this and a low pressure that is under 1,000 millibars is considered stronger.

[00:04:31]And once it gets under 990, it's really getting to that more significant number here. So, either way, we start off with some activity in the morning, right? We can take this This is right after lunch time. So, you see more storms going up in this area here. Again, we're watching primarily in here. This is where that kind of enhanced risk is as of right now. We get to 4:00 to 7:00, you see storms right there. That low has kind of taken this track. So, it's up here now just to around the Minneapolis area.

[00:04:57]It's going to be ejecting into Canada with time here. So, either way, this is a pretty not significant look, but it's a pretty robust look, I would say, for some storms. If the low pressure is this strong and it's tracking this close to the risk area. You know, keep in mind it's kind of down here. I mean, we're we're within a few hundred miles here and often times you don't even get it like that. You can get low pressures that are 500 to 700 to 1,000 miles away with still and still get robust setups here. But, the closer they are, the more energy and the storms can just be more robust. That's just the way it is here.

[00:05:28]So, this happens, right?

[00:05:30]Even into the overnight hours, it could be a bit of a threat here. And we'll take this to Thursday morning and stop it here. So, with this, I also wanted to show you guys the percent chance pretty much of a severe weather setup. And that's the way that this is kind of should be phrased here in my opinion.

[00:05:45]So, this is the probability in percent of 1,000 J/kg of cape, so the kind of lower end threshold of of cape for storms that's our storm fuel, and 40 knots or more of the kind of mid-level shear that we need to organize these storms. So, we start off in the morning here with like over 60% in some areas. It's pretty impressive.

[00:06:09]But, we take this on. Here's lunchtime, thereabouts, give or take an hour. Look at this. We have upper 90% wise of getting a severe weather setup here in Iowa and Missouri down into Kansas.

[00:06:20]And this is the Euro ensemble, I should add. This is a very reliable model to look at. Now, the placement might not be perfect, right? This area may be mirrored and be up here. Again, we're kind of watching into this corridor for the strongest storms, but here's one.

[00:06:33]Here's 4:00.

[00:06:35]And this is starting to spread further to the east at this point. So, this already is honking the horn in my opinion for something a little bit more dangerous and robust here with ensemble guidance indicating this. I mean, I don't know what our max potential may be in here. I mean, there's 100% right there. That is not saying though that we have a 100% chance of a severe storm that rips your roof off or drops hail big enough to put dents in your car or worse holes. That's not what we're saying here. What this is really showing more than anything else is, "Hey, it's honking the horn at a signal for some overlapping ingredients." That's what this is showing more than anything else, right? Now, I'll take this on and continue it to Thursday morning. We have more of it here already. So, going into Thursday, this is what we've got. So, we have a slight risk up across areas of New York, New Jersey here, Pennsylvania, all the way down through the most of the state of um Maryland here and into Delaware, northern areas of Virginia, almost all in fact all of the state of West Virginia here, portion of Ohio, and into kind of eastern and northern areas of Kentucky. A lot of states here is really making my brain work cuz I don't do geography in this area a lot and these states are kind of packed together, but not to get distracted here. This is all we know. This could expand, this could change. As of right now, it seems to be pretty well placed here. So, watch out on Thursday as well. This is the same storm system just moving off further to the east. So, now looking at the model guidance here, here's the HRRR. Starting off Thursday morning at 7:00 a.m. You already see storms, right?

[00:08:07]So, pretty similar to Wednesday, there's storm activity in the morning. But, we continue this on.

[00:08:12]Here's 10:00 uh 1:00 4:00. So, you might be thinking, well, you know, what's going on here? I mean, this is our risk area of give or take and where's the storms? It could be this is a morning threat. I want to keep that in mind. I don't I don't want to put out there this has to be an afternoon threat. It may be more of a morning threat as this rolls through. So, we get to the mid-late afternoon and it seems to be gone. Now, I do want to back this up. This is something I want to honk the horn at.

[00:08:34]Here's 1:00 1:00 in the afternoon as you can see up at the top. I'm going to throw this down into the deep south here and zoom out just a bit.

[00:08:41]Do you see all this activity down here?

[00:08:43]I'm not saying this is going to be severe. There's a surface low developing over here in in Texas as well. And there's going to be a frontal boundary kind of draped like this. That's where the front lies as of just around lunchtime give or take an hour. So, you see storms up here, but you also see a lot of activity down here. We go one more hour. I mean, look at these. A widespread area of of stronger storms signal based on the model here as in just the splashes of brighter color are starting to show up here. And again, I'm not saying that, oh, this is the signal for a severe weather outbreak in the Southeast. Uh well, that's not what we're saying, but again, this is showing potential for something a little stronger. So, I wouldn't be surprised in upcoming outlooks maybe to see a slight risk down here somewhere or maybe by the time we get to day three a marginal risk somewhere down here or or even bigger just kind of across this whole region.

[00:09:28]We will have to see. It remains to be seen, but as of right now, I mean, you can see it's pretty clearly laid out for you. It looks pretty decent right here.

[00:09:35]So, with this in mind, what's driving it? Well, here's the upper level pattern that's going to be driving this. This is the Euro ensemble. Once again, I'm going to kind of move this over a little bit.

[00:09:44]So, we're starting this off this coming Monday morning.

[00:09:48]As in tomorrow morning. Uh getting my days mixed up here already. So, there's a little bit of flow down here. Again, we we have a severe weather threat for tomorrow across this region, and we have the next one for Tuesday kind of up across here. So, I'll leave these circles on for Monday, very weak flow through the afternoon. Maybe a little bit of an impulse of energy. See that kind of a little shortwave right there.

[00:10:09]So, we'll watch out for that. But, we move into Tuesday and move throughout the day. Do you see that though? There's a little bit of a stronger impulse of energy. I'm going to remove these now. There's a shortwave trough kind of moving through. This based purely on this and nothing else tells me that Tuesday may have a little bit better forcing, a little bit better energy associated with it. So, maybe maybe Tuesday uptrends. We'll see.

[00:10:32]But, let's go into Wednesday. We analyze Wednesday morning here uh with our upper level pattern. And once again, you can see we have a broad area of strong flow aloft kind of just sitting up here across the high plains northern Rockies starting to move down. The main forcing will not come in until late Wednesday into Thursday is my thinking here. But, we get a shortwave to develop right here. Again, this is ensemble guidance. So, this is a little bit smoothed out. The operational Euro and the operational GFS will probably show a more extreme scenario of this, but we're being responsible here by looking at an ensemble. Uh there's too much to look at an operational run here.

[00:11:08]But, that shortwave is going to develop that low somewhere in here again. And it's going to start moving up into Canada. So, even if it develops down here, it's still going to go the same way. Same idea here, no matter where it forms, and it moves through. But, notice that by the time we get into I'm let's just take Thursday morning here. We have much stronger winds. This whole area of wind is much stronger here. It's kind of centered right there. So, you would you would go from this and say, okay this red circle I'm drawing right now is where we have the most forcing for storms is out ahead of that line and that's where the storms are ongoing Thursday morning based on the operational euro. So we have good agreement here between the ensemble and the operational run of the euro here to show storms across kind of kind of this region if anywhere else for Thursday morning. But this is a pretty potent upper level pattern especially this time of year. That's one thing that's kind of got my attention about this is this is just weird for June. Typically June is not characterized by something like this. It's more often than not just a very flat muted weak jet stream that's kind of off to the north somewhere and southern or even central Canada and down here in the lower 48 we really have not a whole lot of flow to talk about to get storms going. But for June I mean this is I mean for any time of year this is pretty impressive. We got a 80 to 90 knot jet streak moving through the Midwest in June. It's pretty odd but it is happening. So this happens obviously and I'll just take this into uh we'll take this into Friday morning here and I'll stop it here. Now looking at our instability again I'm going to move this east just a bit. I was looking at something earlier. So this is obviously a measure of our storm fuel.

[00:12:39]I'm going to work through this a bit quicker here. You'll see splashes of brighter color and higher numbers over the cities. If you get over that thousand joules per kilogram threshold again that's that uh that percentage of a severe weather setup is characterized by this. So we move this on in time and if we're for Monday tomorrow afternoon there's a little bit of spike here across the panhandle surrounding areas.

[00:12:57]We go into Tuesday. So remember Tuesday at this time had kind of a robust shortwave moving through right here but uh it's pretty weak instability here.

[00:13:06]Pretty weak moisture pretty weak just fuel for storms. So overall you know unless the the thermodynamics uptrend the kinematics are going to really be the only driving factor here for Tuesday which could keep it overall at a minimum. But Wednesday we get into Wednesday morning. You can already see a core of instability building in here. Again, this is why our severe weather setup ingredients maxed out there in the morning. Now, also a refresher here. We are looking kind of right in here for the highest threat. I'm going to leave that circle.

[00:13:39]So, going into Wednesday right around lunchtime, you see a lot more instability. Note the 1,000 J/kg threshold. We have three times that in Kansas City. Not saying that we have three times the threat, I'm saying we have three times the number necessary.

[00:13:51]Just kind of pointing out the fact that we have a lot of instability here, a lot of fuel.

[00:13:55]And we go into 4 to 7. So, we have 1 to 2,000 J/kg across the main risk area here. Obviously, you have more down here. You might be thinking, "Well, Charlie, what's going on down there? You know, why are we not seeing a big severe weather threat down there?" Well, it's because our jet stream is riding up through here. So, there's not a whole lot of flow down here in the Southern Plains of the Southeast to really drive these storms. So, keep that in mind.

[00:14:16]But, I I'd regardless here across all of the areas that are going to run a risk on Wednesday or most of them, we're going to have this setup. Now, this is the frontal boundary and this is the low. It's kind of pulling some moisture back, which is why this kind of extends up here a little bit. It's kind of an odd extension.

[00:14:30]But, you can see that frontal boundary.

[00:14:31]It's going to start clearing things out behind it. But, watch this. We go into Thursday here. Here's Thursday morning.

[00:14:37]So, again, I mean, we're going to be watching kind of, you know, it's kind of a hard area to draw. Kind of in here for the most part for a severe weather threat that's already outlined. But, notice, remember what happened in the Southeast in the afternoon was was obviously was down here. So, keep that in mind. We we move this forward 1 to 4:00, you can see the frontal boundary is starting to be draped like this as that low is kind of a moved up this way ejected into Canada.

[00:15:00]So, we don't have very much instability up here. We have a lot of wind energy.

[00:15:04]That jet streak is kind of moving through the area. Flow's doing all that.

[00:15:07]And so, we have a lot of forcing, but not a lot of instability. We have weaker forcing down here, but a lot of instability. So, somewhere in the middle is where the highest severe weather threat's going to set up here and that's could be anywhere in that circle. And again, due to the amount of instability, we're probably going to get a severe weather threat issue down here in the coming days. So, I'm again I'm going to take this out to to Friday morning here and we'll stop it here. So, discussing the long range here, what is the rest of the month of June? Honestly, these models are now taking us towards the end of June if not early July. I haven't even looked at the super long range yet.

[00:15:41]So, again, here is the Euro ensemble.

[00:15:44]This is actually the upper level winds.

[00:15:46]Let's see what I have selected here. 300 millibars. So, this is way up there kind of the main driving factor overall. So, we start off Friday morning where we just left off and you see this a very large trough just up here and kind of a another trough over here and a hint of ridging over the Rockies.

[00:16:03]But, we move this on to time. We're going to kind of take this further out.

[00:16:06]By the time we start next week off. So, again, this is this is about a week out now. We have This is the type of jet stream you typically see. This really flat muted jet stream that doesn't do a whole lot. Although, it's very common it rides up here, not all the way down here. But, um even into the beginning of next week, we have a lot of flow over here, but I don't know about the instability. It kind of got, you know, beat down to this area a little bit more.

[00:16:31]But, our jet stream is starting to do more normal things here. But, by the time we get to mid next week, this is 10 days out. We have a pretty strong signal for ridging.

[00:16:39]Kind of sitting down here over the Baja California regions. Troughing going to be kind of up here just broad signatures of it. So, again, this is a muted look.

[00:16:46]This is a somewhat cooler, more stable look for the East and a warmer, hotter, drier look out West. And uh so, we'll take this in the East. You guys don't need this in the West. You need activity. You need rain, snow for the highest elevations. You need something.

[00:17:01]And it doesn't look like it's going to give it to you at least for the next 10 days or so, but you know, across the East maybe a bit cooler. Severe weather potential may be lower, but you know, just cooler. We'll take cooler in July.

[00:17:12]Any cool down in July is going to be beyond welcome here. Now, I know that we typically stopped at 10 days here and you might be thinking, "Well, is he going to go further?" I am going to go further. I'm going to go a little further here just to see what it shows.

[00:17:24]This is showing by the time we get to the end of next week.

[00:17:28]So, I mean this is getting out there.

[00:17:29]Friday, the 26th. We've got a little bit of troughing across Pacific Northwest, a little ridging across the middle of the country, and troughing across the east still. So, this is cool here.

[00:17:37]Uh kind of eh over here, maybe a little bit stormier, wetter, hotter, and drier.

[00:17:42]Just generalized regions, guys. This is 300 hours out. Don't get specific here.

[00:17:46]There's no point.

[00:17:47]Um I'll move this further on and this is this is normal. A very weak muted jet stream riding along the US-Canada border. This is normal. This takes us through June the 29th. Now, I'm going to start announcing this now and I plan to do it I do better about it in my videos.

[00:18:05]I'm going to be going, as I mentioned, on a mission trip with my youth group down to Myrtle Beach for a week and that is from the 28th through uh July 3rd.

[00:18:16]So, I'm going to be gone a little while.

[00:18:18]It's technically a Sunday to a Friday, I believe, and we'll be back that Friday.

[00:18:22]Video's not going to be out most likely, but Sunday's video probably going to be out. So, I'll miss Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. So, I'll miss 5 days. And uh just to put that out there, not that you need to freak out, guys.

[00:18:35]You none of you rely on me for weather data. I'm 16 years old. You don't rely on me, but I'm just putting it out there. So, here's the end of this. How about we look at the end of this now?

[00:18:44]So, this is the moisture content. I just want to see where this goes here. So, again, we start off this weekend and you see our moisture's down here.

[00:18:52]This means our instability's down here and our highest flash flooding threat's going to be down here, too, where we have the most precipitable water. Think about what we're you're looking at here as the amount of sponginess there is in the atmosphere. I It's I know it's a weird analogy, but you think about a sponge, right? You put it in a bucket of water and squeeze it. It absorbs a bunch of water. This is the measure, what you're looking at here, the brighter colors, especially, are a measure of how much water there is to be wrung out of the atmosphere. So, if a storm forms in these really high values, you get, you know, just more water-loaded downdrafts.

[00:19:23]You get more rainfall out of storms, right? Let's move this on in time, right? This kind of more surround. And by the time we get to the beginning of next week here, this is kind of spiked back up into some of these areas.

[00:19:34]But, this is kind of a typical look for June. This entire region just being hot, humid, uh just muggy, not very comfortable outside. This This is normal, right? This is what we expect.

[00:19:44]And we continue this on.

[00:19:46]And now there's a bit of a signal. We get to the end of next week, 300 hours out. We get a pretty robust spike of this kind of up into areas of even kind of the the southern Canadian prairie here.

[00:19:56]I mean, is this severe weather look for for you guys up here? And maybe. This is just getting more widespread moisture across this area. And it kind of looks like along right along the spine of the Appalachians, we might be drier. Who knows? This is Again, I know it's an ensemble, but it's also way out there in in la-la land. I don't want to get too super specific. Take this to the end, which is 15 days, and most of the East still looks very humid, hot, for the most part. Again, it could be cooler than it it might be capable of being in June. It's still going to be hot, though. Don't don't let anybody out there say, "Arctic outbreak.

[00:20:29]It's going to be freezing cold across the east half of the eastern half of the US in June." Guys, it's not. It's We can be realistically, we could be 10° below average and still be hot across the East. Put that into perspective. I mean, that's ridiculous. We can be in the upper 90s most days, puts us in the upper 80s, that's still hot. But, it's a more bearable heat, put it that way. I guess just trying to be a little bit more optimistic there. So, anyways, uh with all this being said, thank you guys for watching this video. I appreciate you tuning in and spending some time with me this afternoon or evening uh or morning, whenever it is you're watching this video. I appreciate those of you who continue to tune in during the slower or more boring times.

[00:21:07]I mean, guys, the weather's boring and it's inactive. If we're being honest with ourselves, there's a few days out there that are outliers, but for the most part, the weather's boring and for an individual person out there, not a whole lot to speak on, but I do appreciate those of you who continue to tune in during the slow times. And uh we're just getting started here. And you obviously summer is is just beginning here. It's technically not even officially summer. It's meteorological summer, but we'll continue watching things. Of course, the tropics are going to start getting more active and we'll just have to watch it, but overall, thank you guys for watching and I will see you all next time.