This video demonstrates how probability and risk work in games, showing that when there are 4 balloons left and 1 contains a bad punishment, each player has a 1 in 4 chance (25%) of getting the punishment, while the other 3 balloons offer good prizes.
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Independence Day Fun!
Added:Roll the balls, Kasey. Roll the balls, COME ON.
>> [screaming] >> YOU GOT BLUE, WHICH MEANS YOU GET a blue balloon.
>> I'm going to go down here.
>> Okay, down here? POP IT.
IT'S A SLUSHY. It's a slushy.
>> Your turn, Aaron. Go for it. Roll the balls, come on.
>> You got red, WHICH MEANS YOU GET A RED BALLOON.
>> I'm going to go right here.
>> Right here?
Oh.
It's a lollipop.
It says boom, bang, pow. WAIT A SECOND.
OH. OH, IT LIGHTS UP. THAT'S AWESOME.
>> Your turn, Paul. Go for it.
Come on. Get one in. Oh, almost. Almost.
Oh, you got red.
>> You got red. All right, which red one do you want?
>> Okay, I'm going right here.
>> Okay. And before you pop it, Paul, I should mention one of these balloons has a bad punishment. Okay. So, you don't want to get the bad punishment.
[laughter] No. So, there is one you don't want to get, but all the REST ARE GOOD.
WHAT DO YOU GET?
>> OH.
>> WHAT'S THAT?
>> TWIZZLERS.
>> TWIZZLERS?
>> And $2.
>> And that's $2 bill on the back.
Your turn, Dad. Go for it.
Come on.
Come on. Get one in.
COME ON. OH.
SO CLOSE. YOUR TURN, KASEY. Go for it.
Oh, you're really rolling them fast.
Oh, you got a white one in, which means you get a white balloon. I don't think >> I'm going to go over here.
>> Over here? Has anyone gotten a white balloon yet? I don't think so.
All right, well, you you're the first.
Here we go.
OH, WHAT'S THAT?
WHAT IS THIS?
>> GLASSES AND a headband.
>> Can I see that? Can I see it?
I have a bet. All right, your turn. Go for it.
>> Come I really hope I don't get the bad one.
>> Come on.
>> Don't be bad. Don't be bad. Don't get the bad one.
>> Don't be bad. Don't be bad.
>> All right. Woah.
>> Oh.
>> Oh, you got one.
>> Okay.
>> You got red. All right, you get a red balloon. There's two left.
>> Can you tell me is the bad one in red?
>> Uh it's either in red, white, or blue.
>> Oh, yeah.
>> Yeah, that's That's my hint to you.
>> Okay, I'm going to go back here then.
Come on.
Here we go.
>> Pop it. Come on.
>> OH.
>> OH.
>> OH, DEFINITELY NOT BAD.
>> YEAH, taste the rainbow. Let's go.
>> Your turn. Go for it. Come on, Paul.
Come on.
>> Oh.
>> Come on. Come on.
Hey, you got a white one in. You got a white ping pong ball, which means you got a white balloon.
>> Okay, I'm going over here.
>> Over here?
>> Right here.
>> Okay.
>> It's good.
>> OH.
>> OH.
>> OH.
>> OH.
>> WHAT IS THAT?
>> $50.
>> $50. There you go.
>> Oh, yeah.
>> You can spend that on some burgers for 4th of July.
Your turn, Dad. Come on.
>> I haven't gotten one.
>> You haven't gotten one in yet?
>> How hard is this?
>> Well, this is your time to shine. Come on, you got it.
Come on. Come on. Come on. Oh, that almost went in.
You got one.
>> Finally.
>> All right, you get a red one. Which one are you going to pick?
Pop the red one. It has to be this one.
All right, pop it, Dad.
>> Do it.
>> What's the deal?
>> I don't like noise.
>> You don't like loud noises?
>> it.
I didn't know that about you.
What?
>> What? [laughter] >> What do you do WITH THOSE?
OH.
>> ALL RIGHT.
>> PERFECT.
>> That's perfect.
>> This is perfect.
>> All right, Dad. Dad, pop the balloon.
All right.
>> I guess this is the balloon I got to pop.
>> Dad, you got to pop the balloon.
>> All right, stop.
>> No, pop it.
>> Oh, pop it.
>> I said pop it.
Not stop. All right. Yes, pop it.
>> Stop it. Pop it.
>> All right, just do it.
>> it.
>> Oh.
I didn't hear a thing. That's [laughter] great. It looks like you got a chili skip card. I love food.
>> [laughter] >> Yeah, we know you love food.
Oh, you love food, too? Yeah, yeah. It is your turn, Kasey. Go for it. Oh, you really rolled the ball.
Oh, you got A WHITE ONE.
ALL RIGHT, WELL, THERE ARE two white ones left. Which one? The right one or the left? Right there. I hope it's not the punishment. All right, LET'S SEE.
IT WON'T bother me. POP IT.
>> [laughter] >> ALL RIGHT, pop it. Did she pop it?
Did she pop it? You didn't even know SHE POPPED IT.
IT'S A RED, WHITE, AND BLUE DRINK. IT'S ICY POP FLAVOR.
Perfect for a hot day.
It is your turn, Aaron. Go for it.
There's four balloons left and one's bad. Dad, which one should he go for?
>> [applause] >> Go for it. Dad, which which balloon should he go for? Go for the balloons.
That's That's not what [laughter] I was asking.
You're right, there's no red ones. Okay.
Okay. All right, I'm going to go for it.
All right, go for it. COME ON.
YOU GOT BLUE.
THAT'S PROBABLY GOOD. YOU HAVE A You're right. You do have a one in four chance of getting the bad punishment.
>> [laughter] >> He has a one in four chance of getting the bad one. Is it really bad? It's pretty bad, yeah.
>> [laughter] >> All right, go for it. Pop one.
Hey, on the bright side, if the punishment isn't red or white, there's no chance of you getting it. Cuz you're going blue. That's true, technically, but there's a lot of blue here, though.
That's true. It's probably a blue. Here we go. Here we go.
All right, pop it, Aaron. Pop it.
COME ON.
WHAT DID YOU GET? WHAT?
IT says SS. SS. What's SS? I don't know.
What is it?
Yeah, it's It's not like a snake, you know? What is it? Is a snake the bad punishment?
>> No, it's [clears throat] not a snake.
>> Is it bad?
>> But it >> is the bad punishment.
>> IT'S THE BAD PUNISHMENT.
>> YOU'RE GOING TO NEED THESE.
>> Baby wipes? What?
>> Oh, are you going to do construction work or something?
>> Nothing is worse than that.
>> No, it's It might be worse than that.
>> That would be bad punishment.
>> What does SS stand for?
>> It stands for silly string. You got to get silly string to the face.
Okay, here we go. 3 2 1 silly string all over the [laughter] face.
There you go.
>> I got some.
>> Happy 4th of July.
>> [laughter] >> It's everywhere.
Happy 4th of July.
That's the bad punishment. I think you need a little more.
I've always thought you would look good with long hair. Now I >> I would look good? [laughter] >> And guys, before we go, we want to ask everybody watching at home our question of the day. We want to know what is your 4th of July tradition?
>> What is your 4th of July tradition? If you're watching at home, tell us in the comments.
>> We go to a parade every year.
>> We go to a 4th of July parade, you're right. What is your 4th of July tradition, Dad?
>> My mission? Mission Impossible?
>> No, no, 4th of July tradition.
>> Tradition, Dad.
>> Tradition, Dad.
All right, tell us your answers in the comments and we'll see you there.
>> Bye.
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