The 80-day war between Iran and Iraq, combined with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has caused global economic concerns including rising oil prices, disrupted fertilizer supplies, and potential recession risks. The G7 finance ministers are meeting to address these challenges, while the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a critical maritime passage for 80% of global oil consumption creates significant geopolitical leverage for Iran. This situation highlights how energy supply disruptions can cascade into broader economic crises affecting multiple sectors including agriculture, transportation, and global trade.
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Guerre en Iran : Peut-on éviter une récession mondiale
Added:Hello everyone. Happy to be back with you for another week of public sense. We are together, as you know, from Monday to Thursday from 6pm to 10pm to make sense of the news thanks to our experts and the journalists from the Public Sénat editorial team, with the awards on the agenda for September 18th.
No, not September at all. It is, after all, May. So it is indeed May 18th, you confirm that. So, on the agenda for May 18th, petrol prices have never been so high in France since the start of the air strikes against Iran. The consequences of 80 days of war raise fears of a widespread halt to the global economy, and G7 finance ministers are meeting today and tomorrow in Paris to find solutions. We will ask ourselves in a minute how to get out of this crisis. And then in the second part of this public discourse, a close-up on the Spanish Prime Minister who, in a few months, has become a symbol of resistance to Donald Trump. Pedro Sanchez refuses to increase military spending, defends the Palestinians and regularizes undocumented migrants.
My country will pave the way for the regularization of half a million undocumented migrants. half a million people with whom we live every day, at the market, on the bus, at our children's school. People who take care of our parents, who work in the fields, who have built the progress of our country hand in hand with us.
What is Pedro Sanchez's economic record? Why did this socialist Prime Minister Pentil find allies in Europe? Is his power weakened 8 years after his election? Don't miss our debate on this topic, it will be in 45 minutes. And as every day, participate in our program by scanning this QR code to share your daily experiences in the face of the energy crisis. The French Minister of the Economy wants to help the sectors that need it most.
Cécile Sixou.
Although the G7 finance ministers appear relaxed on the surface, they have a lot of work to do. In particular, avoid allowing the Iranian conflict and the blockade of the Ormous D3 to degenerate into a serious financial crisis. Because since the beginning of this war, which is blocking the transport of hydrocarbons and fertilizers, the international economy has slowed down. Global growth forecasts have been revised downwards.
They would fall from 3.3% to 3.1% according to the IMF and some continents would be particularly affected such as Asia, which is 80% dependent on oil from the Middle East, or Europe. When you take, for example, the German economy, the growth projections by the end of the year could be divided by when you take the French economy.
Well, at the beginning of the year, we were still hoping that growth would be around 0.9 %. It is likely to be significantly lower if the price of oil remains at a high level around 06 or 07 points of GDP. The increase in gas and oil prices has a snowball effect on production costs and transport and is already affecting industries such as chemicals, cider making and plastics, but could well spread to the entire economy of the countries that depend on it and cause price inflation as is already the case in service stations. It is households and businesses that pay for this increase in energy prices and even if tomorrow the D3 of Ormous were released, we see that the risk premium, particularly for maritime trade, has increased and will continue to increase.
This means that transportation costs are higher. So it has an inflationary impact in the medium to long term.
The global economic health will therefore depend on the duration of the conflict. In the event of a protracted war, the currently sluggish international economy could then enter a recessionary phase.
Indeed, the question is whether or how to avoid this global recession. I welcome Sylvie Matelli, good evening, welcome. You are an economist, director of the Institute, Jacques Deor, and you simply publish on economics. It's published by Stéphanie Villers, good evening. Welcome to you too. You are an economic advisor at PwC France. Ec Albert, good evening and welcome, economics journalist at Le Monde, and Anne Charlin Bzina, good evening, welcome. You are a constitutionalist and a coastalist for public sense. I'm going to start with a question that might be a little provocative. We saw those images from the G7 finance meeting, what's the point of a G7 finance meeting? [laughs] Is it still useful? That's the big question. First of all, you shouldn't confuse G7 finance with the G7 which brings together heads of state.
So this is a meeting, and these are meetings that are held quite regularly between finance ministers to discuss the dynamics, or lack thereof, of the global economy.
[grunt] Uh, he finds himself in Paris since the French currently have the presidency of the G7 and the heads of state will meet in Paris in June. So, it's true that we can discuss the usefulness of this G7 since we have seen in recent years, in recent decades, the weight of Western economies gradually decline since it brings together the seven richest countries. However, what is very interesting about this meeting and probably the meeting of heads of state in conjunction, is that it finds itself almost in a situation that is quite comparable to the original situation which led to the creation of the G7, that is to say the first oil shock.
We meet, we sit around the table to try and see together what we can do in the face of rising oil prices. And at the time, there was also the issue of the dollar and the sharp depreciation of the dollar and the need to support this currency. So we are in that context. Again, in the 1970s, I believe the G7 countries represented a little less than 70 % of the world economy. We are a little less than 40% today.
So we can see from this figure how much the importance of the most developed countries, in quotation marks, has actually been reduced in recent years.
And then we can ask Stéphanie Villers the question of this multilateralism. What? What sense does it make with Donald Trump threatening new tariffs every two days or so, especially those who will be there or around that G7 table?
Yes, you are right because in the G7, there is of course the United States and uh we are not running the same race, well we do not have the same ambition since I remind you that the United States are oil producers and the other countries except Canada are net importers of this raw material.
However, we can clearly see that because of this war started by the United States in Iran, it has still damaged the entire global economy through the surge in oil prices, and energy prices in general. And so it is in the interest of none of these parties integrated into the G7 to want to maintain such a level of energy prices because we know very well that the medium to long term risk is to trigger a recession. We can clearly see the canal in particular, but I think we'll talk about it a little later when we talk about interest rates.
Yes, of course, that will be one of the chapters. Can it, for example, let's be a little more precise, R Albert, in my questioning, can it allow coordinated action, for example on strategic oil reserves? Is it also used for that marginally? But frankly, it was a meeting of impotence today because what happens in Ormous depends on the United States and Iran.
The other countries, France, Germany, Canada, Japan, they can still meet. It's better to meet than not to meet, than not to talk, but frankly, it didn't amount to much and we didn't get much out of this meeting. Well, as long as that place is in the camp of the United States and Iran, the United States started this war. Iran has managed to play its hand to block the Strait of Hormuz and now they are in negotiations. Well, if there's a way to resolve this multilaterally, that would be fantastic. I don't see how.
But who exactly still believes in it? I think we say that perhaps out of habit, but we believe it less and less. This risk of recession is our headline. We are at the 80-day mark of the war. Does it become more real as time passes?
Sylvie Mat. Yes. And it becomes all the more real because beyond the blocking of the D3IT of Ormous and this Iranian affair, we had previously had all the, how to say, I was going to talk about innovation, in any case all the brutalities or somewhat brutal measures taken by Donald Trump since the tariffs and the trade war, passing through Venezuela, the threats against Greenland and the Europeans. And so we see that since Trump's return to power, we have accumulated a number of announcements, announcements that have extremely serious consequences and in particular create uncertainties about the future and the dynamics of the global economy. This global economy was already weakened at the beginning of 2026. This has only reinforced that weakening. So indeed, whether Hormous is blocked or unblocked today, I believe that the outlook for the global economy in the coming months is extremely dependent on an uncertainty that continues to grow.
Is there a risk of a financial crisis, Stephanie? We need to look at the American debt, not only, but especially at the American debt. Explain why.
Yes, because in fact it's a snowball effect, a chain reaction where energy prices started to skyrocket, which led to a spreading risk of inflation, and when there is more inflation, well, mechanically interest rates rise, and interest rates had risen. We already experienced this sequence during the war in Ukraine.
However, the rates started very low. We were all at 0 % rates. But currently we are already starting with relatively high interest rates.
Remember, last year it was still a problem just for France, saying that if we don't have a budget, there is a risk of pressure on interest rates. So, first of all, we, but like the rest, the United States also have rates that are reaching record levels. We have the US 30-year yield on Friday reaching 5%, something that had n't happened since 2008. So there you have it, the fears are really there because there are reports that money is becoming increasingly expensive to borrow. That's it. Pardon. Very basic terms, but that's what it means. Yes, that's it. And when money is much more expensive, well, we are led to invest less and then have less desire to consume as well. If you try, I remind you that Americans live on credit, so of course, they are very sensitive to this variable. So, we are in this sequence where the whole world is indebted, heavily indebted, whether it be states, companies, but also, in some countries, households, and we see in a rather worrying way this rise in interest rates, without being able to say, excuse me, interrupt you, if we are talking about a financial crisis, a debt crisis, what consequences could this have? We have already had this, notably in our own country the sovereign debt crisis with Greece in 2012 and that a debt crisis triggers a liquidity crisis, a general crisis of confidence and that generally triggers a recession, so because the mechanism is set in motion, finance is essential in the way the economy works honorably.
We can perhaps remind Eric Albert that we are, pardon, that we are particularly concerned, we are not the only ones, eh. The United States is also very heavily indebted, but if we borrow at increasingly higher rates on the markets, it has direct consequences for the French economy, which has 3600 billion in debt.
And it's mechanical. You know, the debt we currently have, we borrowed it 6 or 7 years ago when interest rates were at 0.5%. Today, we are refinancing it at 3.5% to 3.8%. So each old debt costs much more and it's really the snowball effect that grows slowly but surely. And during the Eurozone crisis, people were talking about pigs. The pigs were from the southern country. This was the nickname given by the Anglo-Saxon press concerning Portugal, Iran, Italy, Greece, and Spain.
Today we are talking about Britne, meaning Great Britain, Italy and France. The Bifs are the three countries, and these three major countries are the most in difficulty. If you look at it, France is in a very complicated budget session. The UK is even worse and on top of that, they don't even have the protection of the Eurozone. And Italy has been in a situation of non-growth for 30 years, which has major problems.
Moreover, Italian Prime Minister Georgia Melloni, as reported this Monday afternoon, is asking the European Union to relax its budgetary rules. So, we are in this situation of a country that is heavily indebted and even more in difficulty with this crisis. with a question, perhaps you can answer it to Eric Albert who comes to us from mess Philippe who asks us about the impact of this crisis on private credit. There is a mechanical effect.
Uh, that also has an effect on the rate at which we will borrow to perhaps, I don't know, buy an apartment or, uh, it's mechanical, the rates, the borrowing rates, uh, France, which are at 2-3.8 % today. This is also reflected in long-term rates when taking out a real estate loan. So your mortgage will be more expensive today than it was a few months ago, and it was already more expensive than it was a few years ago. So it's constantly progressing.
This is also true for consumer credit, for example, there is a domino effect, yes, there is a domino effect, a snowball effect, as has been very well explained, which also helps to understand why this inflation, which will lead to a restrictive monetary policy and therefore an increase in interest rates, is likely to affect and weaken economic growth even further. And this is also where the effect of interest rates and the risk of being extremely important is because at a certain point when we have this type of crisis in the face of a monetary policy that is tightening, interest rates that are increasing to fight against inflation, we would need room for maneuver to support economic growth and to prevent inflation from combining with a recession. However, this will be very difficult because before the debt causes a debt crisis, a financial crisis, the debt leads to an increase in spending allocated to the payment of this debt, to the repayment of interest, and these are expenses that can no longer be dedicated to other investments or other expenditures.
So, we also have this very important economic effect.
So, we're going to focus a little on this D3 from Ormous with two questions.
Hey, it's Nathan writing to us from Perpignan. Can China pressure Iran to stop blocking Ormous' D3? We hope that Tour will provide a solution from elsewhere, or perhaps Pierre will write to us from Saint-Malot. Even if the war in Iran ends, maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormous will never return to the same as before. How will this impact the global economy in the long term?
Pierre's question is very interesting.
We'll get to that, but I'd like to offer you a first reaction, a testimony. It is a journalist from the Iranian state television channel who says that, like other countries before them, there are European countries that are negotiating ship passages in the Strait of Hormouse.
Listen, after the passage of ships from East Asian countries, including China, Japan and Pakistan, we received information today that Europeans have begun negotiations with the Revolutionary Guard Navy.
Is this D3 of Ormous Stéphanie Viller completely closed? It's not a... There are still a few boats that trickle through, you know.
Yes, but if it were truly relaxed, it would be reflected in oil prices. to be bending them, which is not actually the case. And in reality, it's still an essential piece of information. It is from the moment there is an improvement in the situation, right, that we will find ways around the problem or that we will manage to unlock these rights of normousse, even if it will be necessary to put some oil infrastructure back into operation. Nevertheless, from the moment the perspective is where we know that things will get better and that we will, for better or worse, find new pre-war production. Well, I think that will be the first positive sign. So in fact we shouldn't downplay it by saying, well, anyway, now that the machine is launched, we're only going to have negative consequences for the economy. We must not forget that from the moment things can reverse, it will take time after reopening but it can reverse. So. But for businesses, knowing that in any case, that's it, we're out of this rut and that there's a prospect of business resuming in one way or another as in the past, it will still restore confidence. That's why it's still essential to push in that direction and to insist on finding ways to unblock or circumvent. There was information from the French agency that traffic had increased slightly last week. Eric Albert Eskia, that's Yeah. We're talking about a few passing boats, a few dozen, let's not get carried away.
However, if I may say so, we are on a countdown. That is to say, almost no ships have passed through for 2 months, but ultimately the oil is at $100-110. That's much more than before. It's not an oil shock of the magnitude of what we experienced in the 70s at all so far. For what? because we have lost approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day, which has been compensated approximately two-thirds with more production in the United States with a little bit of shipping passing through with exports via pipelines from the Middle East, and then the adjustment variable is the reserves. We draw from our progressive reserves, the question you asked earlier, these strategic reserves, these strategic reserves. They gradually decrease at a speed. What the International Petroleum Agency was saying about energy today is that it is being depleted at an unprecedented speed, and how long can we sustain ourselves on these reserves? That's the multi-billion dollar question, hundreds of billions of dollars, because in fact we don't know, but it's a matter of several weeks, certainly, maybe several months, but it won't last forever. And are there new oil routes finally if Mathili that are in the process of perhaps not seeing the light of day but in any case gaining importance and will there be a return to the weight of the Strait of Hormuz in the world's fuel and oil traffic?
So, the heart of oil exports for a number of countries and regions, particularly for Asia, remains the Middle East and therefore the D3 of Ormous will remain a strategic hub. It is clear that crisis after crisis, we see these risks weighing on value chains which redirect a number of flows. That was the case, uh, after the Covid crisis. This will be the case and it is already noticeable at the oil level in particular with the United States which had repositioned itself at the center of the game for several years and which had become I believe they are the first exporter of oil today and will continue to increase their production. We will very likely also have new sources of supply from Venezuela and Mexico. But that also explains why Donald Trump isn't getting out of this war any faster in the end.
So yes, yes, is its economy less impacted than others, or do American consumers, for example, feel it less when they go to fill up their tanks than all those who are watching us right now?
No, that's not the case at all. You have two effects that are quite paradoxical and that ultimately put Donald Trump in front of a very complicated dilemma. The first effect is indeed that the oil exporters are making surprises and have never made so much money. And in this instance, the United States benefits, and very likely Donald Trump's wallet as well, in one way or another, well, about his fortune in fact. His fortune. I believe this will be our debate on Thursday of this week. Quite. That's clear. At the same time, you have extremely high inflation in the United States, which is particularly sensitive to fuel prices.
Fuel is still a basic necessity for Americans who drive a lot. And it's true that with the midterm elections approaching, this is something that can weigh extremely heavily, that already weighs very heavily on his popularity, but it can materialize by uh fewer votes for the Republicans and therefore much weaker representation in the American Congress.
So, we still have many exciting topics to address in this debate.
We're going to talk about the French strategy, the strategy of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecnu, with a challenge in a moment. We will talk about agriculture, the effect of this crisis on nitrogen fertilizers, petrochemical fertilizers, this is also a very important issue. But I still believe Ormous' three points regarding this lever of power used by the Iranian Islamic regime for blackmail.
Listen to the reaction of the Prime Minister of Qatar who condemns and fears this blackmail, Chief Altan.
Look, Iran should not use D3 as a weapon to pressure or blackmail Gulf countries. This is an international waterway that must be protected and preserved under all circumstances. Iran, which has just announced today the creation of the D3 authority of the Persian Gulf, an organization responsible for Groi and the D3 of Ormous. Stéphanie Viller, what is she? This is Iran's new nuclear weapon, this strait, in the same way in negotiations with the United States. Well, we all discovered at the same time that there was this power given to Iran with this control of Ormouse's D3. In reality, we had n't assessed this risk, or we didn't want to assess it, because putting these elements in the spotlight could give people ideas. So we are addressing this type of problem. I often say this, sorry, don't interrupt, but this idea that Iran would not dare to block Ormous' D3 because it would be shooting itself in the foot, its economy is too dependent on it. Well, in the end, they did it. No, but we see that ultimately the economy for some countries does not remain essential and I even come back to the United States since it is said that Donald Trump will not be able to maintain a war in Iran given the inflation that it generates locally in his country while there are elections. At 80 after 80 days, one can wonder if Donald Trump truly wants to protect the wallets of Americans. He was indeed elected with that slogan. However, we are approaching 4% inflation in the United States. I'm not sure that's still his priority. There's also Iran now, we're discovering that in any case, yes, war takes precedence over the country's economic interests, but we even see that in the United States we can ask ourselves the question, we even see that it's the same problem, not on the same scale, of course, but the only problem is that yes, the G7 should be able to do something because it involves all the countries of the world, but I remain on this lever of blackmail that the D3 of Hormuz represents. This is one of the pieces of information from this afternoon, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, therefore, are threatening to make people pay for the use of the submarine cables of the D3 of Hormuz. I don't know if you saw this, Eric Albert. So it is the fiber optic cables that ultimately depend on transactions, connections, communications, and so on. This is major. It was said that Iran would never dare to block the Troismos for a good reason. Indeed, they shot themselves in the foot, but they had nothing left to lose. They were absolutely massacred.
assassinated from the top, it was perhaps a regime that deserved it, that's not the point, he had nothing left to lose and so, having lost, might as well block holes, go all the way, and so what is extraordinary is that two and a half months later, not quite, sorry, months after February, we find ourselves in a situation where Iran has a better margin for negotiation if it hadn't before, but what a mistake by Donald Trump, sorry, it's easy to say from my seat, but still, what a mistake, he hoped for, he hoped for a scenario, we imagine, like Venezuela where you decapitate the regime and then it's over. It didn't happen like that at all.
There has also been a realignment, it must be said, in what we thought would not happen, is that Iran would somehow attack the Gulf country, all its salt producers and so on. So basically, we thought she wouldn't dare to use this blackmail over the Strait of Ormous, especially considering the situation it would create for her in the region. But in the end, she almost becomes the arbiter of elegance on this issue. So there is a recomposition of the Middle East underway which, in my opinion, could also give us economic prospects. Who will become whose allies? We are really in something that has, well, the butterfly effect as economists know it well.
CVI Matellie, is it possible to imagine a toll on this D3 of Ormous? That would set a pretty big precedent because there are other D3s that also transit. I remember what traffic is, maritime traffic is about 80% of what we consume every day.
That must be it. So, it's conceivable that pH can be measured in construction work. In any case, it had been proposed by the Iranians just a few weeks ago. So yes, they can offer it. Imposing it seems more complicated to me, but they can propose it. And this action on the Strait of Ormous, it's practically, as you were saying earlier, their atomic bomb, and we see them now returning to the negotiating table, making proposals, perhaps because they think they have new cards in hand, and that's very interesting. And the toll, in fact, probably, how would a toll on one of the [laughs] take it like that, in fact, like they do, that is to say, you block the D3 and then you prevent the boats from passing, there is, there is, there is still a real legal issue, which is that the freedom of passage on the waters today is based on nothing, except on a form of custom where everyone lets each other pass, and we can clearly see that this has its limits.
Yes, indeed. Let's open the chapter concerning the political and economic response in France with a question that comes to us from Lille.
Kevin, are the solutions taken by the government appropriate for a crisis that will last? Well, Anne Charlen, you have chosen to talk to us about these measures announced by Sébastien Lecornu. It can be said that this is a gradual strategy. Ah really, we could even sum it up in these lands. The less you do, the better you feel. The government, the gornu, is dealing with minor patches. So, first we tried to unlock the strategic reserves, we talked about it with the idea of potentially playing on prices. Then there was a persistence of the rise and therefore a control plan but be careful downstream, so rather direct measures towards the refiner, the distributor to try to control prices. So the hardest part was quantifying the cost of the crisis, and that obviously hurt. "At least 6 billion euros," the Prime Minister tells us in a letter. And uh Roland the security guard was in charge of a public finance alert committee, huh, but I assure you, we are always told that everything is fine.
Well, who broke down the risks that could lead to these figures worsening in the coming months, an economic situation that is, let's say, in decline, and so there have been measures that have been taken, we will detail them.
So, you're telling us that here again, we're beating around the bush a bit, but it's a little bit, you know, like that family game where you're not supposed to say certain words.
So we are not talking about 2022, we are absolutely not in a parallel with the tariff shield or the game on taxes. We're mainly targeting the very short term with this idea of capping margins, so why not, eh?
targeted measures, hey we were told that, we have to keep that word, targeted measures, big roll and so on or else we will work on the very long term by saying well we have to learn to decarbonize our energy, electrification, intensification with the ban on gas boilers, heat pumps and so on. I could go on and on.
Yeah. With a new form of rhetoric that is currently being constructed. And yes, we wonder if it is Ormous' D3 that is holding the French economy hostage or the other way around because ultimately our prime minister is reimposing a discourse on budgetary rigor. Well, so much so that our parliamentarians even found a few hours to discuss the golden rule of our public finances. So, uh, we're going to maintain a deficit target of 5% for 2026 and these 6 billion euros that we've calculated, well, we're simply going to freeze them. 4 billion euros cut in ministerial spending.
The watchword is rigor, and uh, except that we have prices that continue to rise.
That's not enough. Sébastien Lecornu is obliged to respond but he's postponing it, you know.
First we were told there was a delay, then there was this little ceasefire so there were hopes and finally now we are told that new announcements will arrive on Thursday with a novel language that I am not sure I completely understand but I submit it to you. Protecting working French people and the economic sectors most affected by the effects of rising oil and derivative prices. We understand that we are staying within the sector, we are told that we are going to change scale, but to what extent? Everything is green. Even if we understand that by refusing to play on taxes, Sébastien Lecnu said it obviously, no VAT, the legal lever does not exist, but well, Sébastien Lecnu tells us it's populism and no universal shield, in short, whatever it takes, we understood that it was over and we have a government that is balancing in the face of the void.
Yes. Is there any other way Eric Albert Sébastien le Cornu can do it?
It's very simple. The coffers are empty. Well, we had a 5.1% deficit last year, that was already a big effort. We were hoping for 5% this year, we'll see if we reach it or not. Yes, France is in an extremely difficult budgetary situation. That's why interest rates are rising so much, why the attack on the financial markets is not particularly targeted against France, but a little bit nonetheless. And there aren't many other solutions for now than to wait. especially since we are currently at the beginning of a possible oil shock.
We're not quite there yet.
You do not use the term oil shock. That's what you were saying earlier about a barrel at $110.
It's not the oil crisis yet.
It's not the oil shock. The price of a barrel, adjusted for inflation, was over $200. In 2008, it was still half as much. The gas crisis, sorry, in 2022 was also much more violent and then it lasted longer. So we're at the very beginning. It's possible we'll get into an oil tanker. Once again, I was saying, we are in a countdown.
It is possible that in a few weeks, we will breathe easier and that we will finally see a little inflation and a little slowdown in growth. It's nothing more than that. We'll see. Personally, I think it's quite cunning politically. In other words, this policy of small, somewhat meticulous steps, Stéphanie Villers. And economically, is it effective? uh, effective in avoiding uh, a drift in public finances, probably because we are already at a high level. Well, we've already tested the support measures for the economy since the start of Covid, because we must remember that we are indeed facing many crises. In 6 years, we had the Covid crisis, the energy crisis linked to the war in Ukraine and now we are having another oil crisis, an oil shock, because I think that 80 days of war and blockade of the D3 d'Ormous has consequences.
Companies are increasingly adopting a wait-and-see approach. So I don't think this will be considered an episode that won't leave a mark on the economy. However, it's not actually because it's an exogenous shock, the French state and government can only do one thing in reality, which is to hope that things will improve. For what? Because it doesn't depend on the situation in France.
We don't actually produce oil, we buy it, so we import it. So there you have it, we don't have control over it. So, the good news is that unlike the war in Ukraine, the war in Ukraine, we had imposed a blockade on Russian gas. Remember, Europeans were no longer supposed to buy Russian gas and oil. Well, there were workarounds, but that was still what was blocking us in the long term. Basically, as long as there was a war with Russia, there was pressure on energy prices. Today, we can clearly see that it's not so much the war, it's this blockage of the D3 Dormous that is weighing on us.
In fact, all developed countries have a vested interest in finding solutions to unlock this D3 issue. So, to answer the question, in France there isn't really any room for maneuver. I agree with Eric Albert.
Well, uh, we're going to ask ourselves the question, this is going to be our last chapter of what you were saying about a much deeper reform on our ability to regain sovereignty less dependent on these petrochemical oil activities. But for that, I suggest we go through agriculture. You will understand why. We're going to talk about fertilizers with Steve Jourdin right now.
Steve must be here. Yes. Good evening Steve. On the agenda of this finance meeting, there is also the issue of fertilizers; their prices have also skyrocketed.
Yes, we talk a lot about oil, about fuel, indeed, it's important. But fertilizers are just as crucial. Without fertilizer, there is less harvest, therefore less food.
Farmers need these fertilizers to improve yields. According to the UN, Thomas, nearly a third of the global fertilizer market is currently disrupted by the war in the Middle East.
Is this directly related to Ormouse's D3?
Yes, because before the conflict, more than 30% of the world's fertilizer trade passed through this strategic passage. Today, this traffic is almost at a standstill. That's not all, Thomas. The Gulf countries are themselves major producers of fertilizers. For example, fertilizer factories can be found in Qatar, Iran, and Jordan. They were halted in the military context with an obvious immediate consequence.
Prices are skyrocketing.
Exactly. Supply is decreasing but demand remains intact. Crops don't wait. For French farmers, the price of a ton of nitrogen fertilizer has more than doubled since the start of the conflict. In the regional press.
Testimonies are multiplying. Some try to compensate with natural fertilizers, manure, compost, but these alternatives are not always sufficient.
In Lotégaron, cereal farmer Benoît Pariso explains in Sud-Ouest, for example, that he has to take out loans simply to continue producing under the same conditions as before the war. This is a ticking time bomb. Yes, we have heard several times this month that the UN already fears shortages in the countries most dependent on imports, particularly in Africa where nearly 80% of fertilizers are imported. Listen, we could witness a crisis that would plunge an additional 45 million people into hunger and famine.
And the problem is that even if we restore traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, it will take between 3 and 4 months to return to a normal situation.
So, in France, no shortage is to be feared at this stage. But since the war in Ukraine, we know, Thomas, our heavy dependence on imports.
That's 67% of all the fertilizers that we consume in France.
The Minister of Agriculture has just announced an exceptional crisis committee tasked with securing supplies and monitoring price developments. End of quote.
Thank you very much Steve for all this information. Steve Jourdin just said it, there was the war in Ukraine and we were already asking this question on this set about nitrogen fertilizers or those derived from the petrochemical industry. Why are we still at this stage? Is it so complicated to replace them? Why are we still so dependent? Well, it's complicated to replace them because you need new products that are just as effective, and therefore you need to innovate in new products. This means that in one you have to innovate, you have to find them and then it means that initially, they will cost much more. So today, it's true that the solution, I'll say the solution of simplicity, but it's also what allows the whole planet to feed itself. Famines are much less frequent than in the past. So, it's thanks to these fertilizers, it's fertilizing. And uh, I think what's important to understand about agriculture is that anything you can't grow today because you don't have fertilizers and that's going to catch diseases or something, that means you're going to have shortages and a demand that's much stronger than the supply.
So, both shortages and people who will not have access to food products, and at the same time extremely high prices for consumers who will have access to these food products at these prices.
Hence the UN's warning, which is that we can see in the coming months and in agricultural production, once the seed is sown and if we have not been able to maintain our field, if we have not been able to fight against the various hazards linked to a crop, then for several months you will have insufficient harvests and therefore inevitably price problems and shortage problems. So this is very clearly an extremely important effect that can have lasting and dramatic consequences.
Yes, in fact you were talking about Africa today. Uh, demonstration in Kenya, four dead, more than 30 injured during protest uh against uh fuel prices. So there you have it, that is also the reality in the countries impacted by the consequences of this crisis and the blockage of the G3 of Ormous. I'm still thinking about this idea of uh uh fertilizers uh to uh Eric Albert, the alternatives cost more uh I'm trying to understand uh it's perhaps a bit too specific as a question.
Agricultural understanding will be limited. But uh, the question I'm asking myself is, we've known for years that we have this addiction and we can't get rid of it because it's an easy solution, because they are cheaper, they are more effective.
Finally, that's what you were saying. Organic products have declined in the purchases of French people because they cost more. I observe that French agriculture is struggling to get rid of it.
European agriculture as a whole is struggling to break free from it.
Yeah. Yeah. For what? Hey, that's funny. This prompted a reaction from Barbara, who wrote to us from Nice. Why not create strategic reserves for fertilizers, like those that exist for oil? I don't know if anyone around the table has an answer to this question. What I see here, what we are talking about, Stéphanie Viller, is a return of inflation. Is this a lasting comeback? In our opening segment, we heard Sophie Alcide say that, in any case, there are risk premiums now on maritime transport which are such that perhaps inflation will remain. What do you think about that?
Well, in any case, the inflation we experienced last year, controlled inflation, I don't think we're likely to see it again anytime soon. In any case, this year, on the contrary, we are going to see inflation gradually increase.
Hey, I remind you that we started the year at 0.7. We're already at 2.2 and it's likely to progress. For what? Because it spreads throughout the economy.
More expensive energy actually means higher production costs for businesses. So at some point, this will have to be reflected in the prices. However, unlike the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, companies in 2022 had grounds to increase prices because prices had remained at relatively stable levels for decades since inflation had been stable.
Today, after 4 years where prices have skyrocketed, especially food prices which had experienced double-digit inflation, it's going to be complicated. So perhaps this is where farmers have a role to play. That is to say, there are not many possibilities, well, there are not many, the State will have to help French farmers because if they do not have access to these essential fertilizers, we will not find other fertilizers within 6 months. And now, we're going to have to use them. Well, we all know that French agriculture is not very productive, and finally, there is a problem of productivity and a problem of competitiveness. So, to avoid this, since it's in our interest to be fed anyway, to avoid this type of risk which would be truly toxic for both the producer and the consumers, I think the State won't have many excuses or at least won't be able to find ways not to finance or at least help this sector.
So, in your opinion, this should be one of the sectors that will perhaps be affected, we know what the Prime Minister is going to announce on Thursday. No. Ah, I'm not, I'm not in that world tomorrow possibly. But what is interesting is that this crisis tells us, in Europe and in France, that we really need to detoxify ourselves as much as possible from hydrocarbons. For agriculture, it's clearly complicated. Regarding energy, there are things we have done since 2022. Uh, France at the time had major problems with nuclear power plants.
Today, it works better.
Spain, which is really interesting, has greatly reduced its dependence on gas and now produces electricity primarily.
Renewable energy is primarily solar energy.
So there are definitely things we can make progress on and we need to make proactive progress on this because sooner or later we are dependent on these imports of hydrocarbons and rare earths, and so we need to reduce these dependencies.
Does that mean a little less globalization? I'm coming back to this story of risk premiums on maritime transport, or a different kind of globalization in reality. If we go back to inflation, inflation takes off, it starts to rise from 2018-29, so a little before the Covid crisis because of the trade war between China and the United States and because there are already trade routes that are being redefined in reality and we realize that we need to be more autonomous, more sovereign on a number of things, there is also the energy transition that is beginning and the need to do without hydrocarbons and to invest in new fertilizers for agriculture.
But the reality of these developments has been inflation because all of this costs more and indeed this inflation will be lasting. And I believe that what we experienced last year and the two previous years with this inflation crisis linked to the war in Ukraine which had been very effectively curbed by the central banks, well, it was a small parenthesis, a small respite, but in fact everything that is happening today, whether it be the China -United States confrontation, the energy transition or anything else, is leading us to more uncertainty and therefore to more inflation and higher prices.
Thank you all for enlightening us, not necessarily reassuring us, although I understand that if the D3 is found, it will take some time but it should turn around in the right direction. I will remind you of the title of your book Sylvie Matelli l'économie tout simplement published by AOL ÉCB on vuulit évidence dans le quotidien le monde à très bientôt sur Public Sénat.
I open the second debate of this public sense deliberately off-center from the news of the day, heading to Spain to discover Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez who has become in a few months a symbol of resistance to Donald Trump.
He refuses to increase military spending, regularizes undocumented migrants, and defends the Palestinians.
Is it isolated in Europe or not? What is its economic record? Why did he lose the regional elections in Andalusia this weekend before even debating them? First response in the form of a signed image. Stéphane Duget. The only European leader to have firmly and definitively named Donald Trump.
From the very beginning of the war in Iran, Pedro Sanchez refused the use of American military bases on Spanish soil to strike the Iranian regime.
Firstly, no to the violation of international law which protects us all, especially the most vulnerable, the civilian population. Secondly, no to the idea that the world can only solve its problems through conflicts and bombs. And finally, no to repeating the mistakes of the past. In summary, the position of the Spanish government can be summed up in four words: no to war. This was a response to the remarks made earlier by the American president from the White House, who was also very offensive, with Donald Trump threatening Spain with economic reprisals.
I could stop everything related to Spain tomorrow or even today, all trade relations with Spain. I have the right to do it.
I can do what I want with the embargoes, and we can do that with Spain.
More than two months after his remarks, no action has been taken against Spain.
But this clash has strengthened Pedro Sanchez's anti-UMP stance, a traditional line of Spanish governmental socialism.
Pedro Sanchez knows that anti-Americanism is a very strong element of the political culture of the Spanish left. And with Donald Trump, he has every reason to oppose this policy, which is particularly evident in Trump's open support for Benjamin Netanyahu's policies and the American intervention in Venezuela. And here, in this instance, we encounter interests that are also the traditional interests of Spain in Latin America.
In April, Pedro Sanchez went even further. He hosted a summit in Barcelona called "In Defense of Democracy". A meeting with about fifteen international heads of state, including the heads of state of Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and South Africa. But this unique positioning has little geopolitical impact in Europe, even if it may prove beneficial in view of the next legislative elections which will be held no later than the summer of 2027. It is clear that Pedro Sanchez's international positioning against Donald Trump, and the popularity he derives from it internationally but also at home, will be assets. And given the uncertainty surrounding what will happen in the next 12 months, it's not impossible that Pedro Sanchez could pull off a surprise victory.
Even though Pedro Sanchez isn't the favorite, his stances against Donald Trump have worked in his favor so far. points in the polls.
Who is this Spanish prime minister who dares to defy Donald Trump?
We'll discuss this right away with Carole Binals. Good evening, welcome. You are a lecturer specializing in contemporary Spain. Ruan Rosé Dorado, good evening and welcome.
Spanish journalist corresponding in Paris. François Baonet, good evening.
Welcome François, you are editor-in- chief of the European editorial team at France Télévisions and a challenger bezina. Obviously, stay by my side, constitutionalist and coastalist, for the sake of public sense. If you had to define Carole Binal in a few words, he is first and foremost a man of the left.
Yes. And then he wrote a manual called Elmanuel de Resistencia. We must not forget that he has been in power since 2018. This was following a motion of censure which was the first motion of censure in the history of Spain and that is no small thing. Then he won the elections by joining forces with the Podemos party, with which he initially had little in common. a so-called Frankenstein government that held on, it was apparently defeated in the 2023 elections, it still managed to form a government. So we can say that he is a gentleman who is quite resilient, with an ability to adapt, we understand, 54 years old, you told us, in power since 2018, he was nicknamed the handsome guy of Spanish politics. I read that ran rosé de rado.
How would you define Pedro Sanchez? So, uh, I want to use a definition that isn't my own, which is from another journalist who said, "In fact, he's more of an opportunist than a politician, in the sense that, indeed, in 2016, he was at the head of the Spanish Socialist Party. He was ousted by his own federal council in 2016. He came back in 2017 by winning primaries within the Socialist Party, and then in 2018, with that vote of no confidence, he came to power, and from then on, he went back on everything he had promised when he was a candidate for the presidency of the government, namely never to work with Podemos. So, this is a more radical left-wing party, let's say.
Podemos is the equivalent of Desfil, by the way. Jean-Luc Mélenchon often went to Spain to learn from how Pablo Iglesia, at the head of Podemos, had organized his party. So, he had said..." Pedro Jeanchez said he would never work with Podemos. Just a few days earlier, he had said he would never work with Podemos, that he couldn't have a government and sleep soundly if he had Podemos on his side. A few days later, a motion of no confidence was passed.
Pablo Iglesias, the president of Podemos, became the first vice-president of the Spanish government. So he dedicated himself to politics. He's a man of opportunity because he didn't have absolute majorities in 2000, in 2018, and he didn't have them in 2023 either, as Carole Bac said, since he didn't win the elections. But again, he's a man of opportunity who knows how to look at what's happening around him.
He allied himself with those he had said he would never ally with.
Yes, indeed, so what? But he's still been in office for almost eight years now, in June.
Does that give François Baudonet a longevity that's a bit unusual in Europe?
Yes, because Indeed, as we just said, he's a survivor.
Politically speaking. So, in Brussels, when he meets his colleagues at the European Council during European summits, he's hailed as such, because he's always walking a tightrope, and yet, he's still there. So that gives him a kind of stability that perhaps others don't have. And at the same time, there's still a fragility because, in fact, there are practically no more socialist governments in Europe. The right wing, and even the far right, have made significant progress, and in fact, there are only four socialist governments left in Europe out of 27. So, there's a certain solitude for Pedro Sánchez when he's in Brussels.
Charlen, I wanted to talk to you about our history of the Third Republic, which may seem very distant, but the opportunistic republicans— opportunistic republicans, precisely, that's what they were on the left, but no further, and then in the end... He's forming alliances, and I think Pedro Sánchez perfectly captures this idea of a left wing that's losing its way in the European Union, this kind of social-democratic wasteland, with the very idea of being opportunistic, that is, seeking alliances where they'll be effective. And I think that explains a lot about his policies, but I'll tell you more about that later.
Yes, indeed, we'll explain it in detail in a moment, and it also allows the government to make a number of decisions.
We'll talk in particular about the regularization of the 100 undocumented immigrants.
500,000 undocumented immigrants—that's quite a symbolic measure. That will be a topic for a later discussion. But Pedro Sánchez certainly has a knack for irritating Donald Trump. Let's listen to the American president. It was two months ago, during the visit of German Chancellor Freikz to the Val office. And at that moment, Donald Trump couldn't stomach Spain's refusal to allow the United States access to its military bases to conduct operations against Iran. Listen to the US president.
Now, Spain has stated that we cannot use these bases, which is fine. We could use their base if we wanted to.
We could simply land there and use it. No one would stop us from doing so, but we don't need to. However, they have been hostile. Spain has absolutely nothing to offer us except wonderful people. They are wonderful people, but they don't have good leaders, and they are the only NATO country that hasn't agreed to increase its contribution to 5 %. They wanted to stay at 2%, and they don't even pay the 2%. So, we are going to cut off all our trade with Spain. We want nothing more to do with Spain.
Carol Binals, is there any consistency here when we talk about opportunism? And so on, what about Pedro Sánchez in this opposition to Donald Trump?
Well, for me, there are several questions. I'm Spanish, after all, and 70% of Spaniards— there was a poll that appeared in El País, which is very well-known—are against war. I mean, war for us. We haven't participated in any world wars, so it's true that... and I was a student during the Iraq War, the demonstrations were massive. It's true that we don't have that mindset at all, I think. So there's a consistency to it, and he's in line with a large part of Spanish society. I understand that; I think it's something that's really very deeply rooted. Now, this is a somewhat personal opinion. I mean, we find Pedro Sánchez extraordinary, but from my point of view, what Spain is doing is normal, and I think we're living in a rather troubled time, so it's not extraordinary that someone refuses to put military bases at the service of someone who is pursuing a policy of aggression. which goes against Article 51 of the UN Charter. Excuse me, but I mean, for me, his behavior is respectful; what this gentleman is doing is respecting international law. If you find it extraordinary because he's doing this, well, it's my turn. I find it extraordinary; it's quite revealing indeed. And that's what you were planning to tell us, ultimately. That's good, very good; it lays the groundwork. I 'm happy. But it's true, there's this idea of reacting, of not letting things happen. Of course, that's what was interesting: Pedro Sanchez is proclaiming elements that one might believe are quite unanimous in the doctrine of the European Union, and in particular, that could appeal to the French. For example, typically, this idea of being against reactionary internationalism is an idea one might think came straight from the mouth of Emmanuel Macron, and that's what is What's interesting is that we see that, diplomatically, he has been somewhat weakened. So, he is indeed defending international law, he is defending the rule of law. He tells us that the European Union's agreements with Israel must be suspended. He tells us that the war was waged without a UN mandate, and so, obviously, I am simply responding to the application of the right to self-defense. Now, it's true, however, that there is another tradition, let's say, within the European Union, which is maintained by France, Great Britain, and Germany, which is this idea of tolerable harm, in a way.
That is to say, coming from a historical ally like the United States, we are going to be in a position of "at the same time" in diplomatic matters. So, for example, France and the United Kingdom are aligned on a position of condemnation of the lack of a legal basis for the war in Iran, but they want to encourage de-escalation. So, we can clearly see that we are dealing with a situation where we are in limbo. Olaf Chols goes further Far away. He's almost positioning himself as a negotiator by agreeing to say he won't break. So the previous one was Frédéric Schmerz.
Frédéric Schmerz, excuse me, I'm not up-to-date, but that applied to him too, you know. That is to say, this idea of not breaking with Atlanticism.
That's kind of the idea. So Sánchez is really going far in this power struggle, and I think he's aware of it.
He's actually kind of aligning himself with a doctrine of the European Union.
The European Union can't follow him, by the way, in most votes regarding this question of the majority. The rejection of the 5% is symptomatic, right? There again, that means, well, we're not going along with Donald Trump's logic. The Spanish base, we'll have understood, so this idea of resistance, uh, deep down, it suits him, well, I want to say it goes in his direction, and that He creates a very strong audience, but, uh, be careful, he's still quite isolated diplomatically.
Yes, indeed. So, what are the reasons for this isolation?
Explain them to us.
Well, I'll give you the reasons for the isolation. We're going to look at this from a purely political perspective. We're going to try to understand everything that's happening internally as well. There's a Sanchez paradox because, it must be said, he's quite weakened on the national stage, particularly regarding the defense of the law. We know there are ongoing criminal cases, embezzlement and so on, which weaken him personally, and a weakening within Parliament, as we've said, with opponents who actually believe that the idea of international resistance serves his political agenda, since, as you said, it's part of his DNA to believe that he does n't wage war. And then there's something else : he's the bulwark against Vox, the A rather Trumpian side of the chessboard. Uh, so Europeans are wary, and then there's something else, which is that there's something a bit like, as you said, about the idea that there's a left-wing international because, well, social democracy in Europe is a bit brain-dead at the moment. And so, uh, left-wing governments are mostly in coalitions where they have an interest in looking, uh, and I'm mistaken, uh, towards the right, towards the center. And so, typically the United Kingdom, France, well, unfortunately, we're in this kind of situation, which does n't help the dialogue with Pedro Sánchez. And then there's one last point, which is that we mustn't forget the economic dependence, which is still less strong for Spain on the United States than for Germany, typically, or for the United Kingdom, which is still bound by certain international agreements with its Atlantic ally.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on that.
You wanted to react. Add a little something.
Well, at the Spanish level, there was a report from the institute called Cyprix; they're at 2.1%, not the 5% that Donald Trump was asking for, but for Spain.
But for Spain, that's still something. They doubled their defense budget. I mean, of course, you're right, but I mean, for Spaniards, if we put it in context, we can't say they're great pacifists either. And besides, just recently, he activated the Leadana, the Citizen Security Law, which is called the Bayon Law in Spain, against activists who were performing in front of the biggest gun fair in Spain. That is to say, the image of Sanchez not being so pacifist, that's what you're telling us, but in a Spanish context that is quite particular. But still, François, with regard to the other European countries of this Atlantic alliance, how does that position the Spanish Prime Minister of... Even though I understand that it's already quite something for Spain to refuse to go towards the 5 % target demanded, notably by Donald Trump.
So, I was already talking earlier about a certain isolation on the part of Pedro Sanchez. Well, how to put it, he had courage, for example, regarding the use of military bases, which are, incidentally, American military bases. He had the courage, ultimately, almost to lead the way because France took a nearly similar position by prohibiting overflights of planes carrying weapons bound for the Middle East. But France didn't say so. It took Donald Trump saying it for us journalists to finally ask the French authorities, and after a while, there was some hesitation on the French side, for them to tell us the truth.
And it's true that we could have imagined that it would be, for example... France, which holds this position, whether it's Emmanuel Macron or someone else, is following this line. However, this still poses a problem, to answer your question directly. [clears throat] Are there other countries besides the United States that criticize Spain for not exceeding 2%?
Well, it's mainly the United States because all the other European countries have really embarked on massive rearmament, even more so than Spain. This is obviously the case with Germany, for example, with hundreds, even thousands of dollars invested in European defense. It's the case with Poland, it's even the case with Italy, it's the case with France. We've seen that the military spending law has been increased, particularly to produce more munitions, and indeed Spain is going somewhat alone, and that's a problem for everyone, even though, it must be said, Donald Trump's statement What we heard earlier hasn't been followed by action because there are still questions being asked about what happens next. There are still trade relations, of course, with Spain.
Spain hasn't been expelled from NATO, and obviously it won't be. So, there you have it, he was very angry, but it certainly won't have any immediate consequences.
Is this actually linked to the fact that the Spanish economy is perhaps less dependent on the United States than other economies?
Well, it is less dependent, but the interdependence with the United States remains quite strong, given the tariffs that were established with the arrival of Donald Trump. For Spain, we've calculated around 9 billion in losses that were going to be incurred. So that's still quite significant. But it's true that there's another factor we'll certainly talk about, which is... domestic politics too.
So Carole was saying earlier about the name of the war, which was actually the second Iraq War, it's indeed the famous photo of his sister where Asnar, who was president at the time, was with Barroso, Tony Blair, and so on, with his sister and with George Bush.
Funny to look at this reaction, Juan who writes to us, "Pedro Sanchez is right to say no." Well, that's what he said earlier. There's a... there's a... he's also popular in Spain.
This position must also be considered in light of previous policies because, yes, that's the case domestically, whether they're right-wing or left-wing, the majority of Spaniards are against the war, just as the majority of Spaniards, right-wing or left-wing, are against what happened in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, on the side of DeGas.
That's also why he benefits domestically from this popularity.
So, internationally, he has considerable popularity among civil society.
I I'm not sure that in Europe, as you said, he's quite diplomatically isolated because his position regarding NATO investment puts the policies of other countries at risk. They'll have to explain to their citizens that Spain is only contributing 2% when it used to be 9%, right? No, no, I mean 2%, well, I mean, actually, oh yes, but tell that to the Poles, they're at over 5%. Of course, geography speaks for itself, they 're a little closer.
Spain's positioning regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but also the fact that it's part of a portfolio of a number of countries, starting with France for example, will have to... Civil society will say, "Look at the Spanish, how they're capable of doing this and that." So diplomatically, he is, he is, he is quite isolated in Europe. That's a reality. There's another chapter that earns him a certain amount of applause but also criticism from partners or European political figures: the migration chapter, obviously. We're getting to that with this question with Steve. Jourdin, right away. Good evening again, Steve. Since Pedro Sanchez's Spain has launched a plan to regularize undocumented migrants, can we talk about a Spanish exception?
In any case, the government announced a spectacular measure at the beginning of the year, Thomas: the regularization of several hundred thousand undocumented immigrants. To justify this decision, Pedro Sanchez developed humanitarian arguments. Listen to him.
My country will pave the way for the regularization of half a million undocumented migrants. Half a million people with whom we live every day, at the market, on the bus, at our children's school. People who take care of our parents, who work in the fields, who have built the progress of our country hand in hand with us. People who were already here, who were already part of our lives.
There you have it. So, behind the moral argument, Thomas, there is also a more pragmatic motivation. Spain is facing an aging population and a declining birth rate. Some sectors are also experiencing Labor shortages. The government hopes to bring up to 500,000 people into the workforce, many of whom already work in the informal economy. A large proportion of them are from Latin America.
So how will this be implemented?
What procedure will be followed?
Pedro Sánchez chose to proceed by decree because he lacks a parliamentary majority. The text sets out several criteria. Beneficiaries must have arrived in Spain before December 31, 2025. They must prove continuous presence in the country for at least five months and submit their application before the end of June. The reward will be a residence permit and a work permit.
So how has this announcement been received in Spain?
Unsurprisingly, the opposition parties are vehemently opposed, particularly the far-right Vox party, which denounces a potential pull factor, a risk that has not yet materialized. Conversely, the unions support the measure. This is also the case, and it should be noted, Thomas, for the employers who see a co-response related to labor shortages, particularly in construction or in the hotel and restaurant industry. And to answer your question, Thomas, yes, we can talk about a form of Spanish exception, at least in terms of public opinion. According to several surveys, 66% of Spaniards believe that immigrants contribute positively to their country. This is significantly higher than the average observed in many other European countries.
This rate is around 53%.
Indeed, that makes a difference of 14 points, not 13 points, that's not nothing. Thank you very much Steve for all this information. Carol Binals, why now? Why is Pedro Sanchez announcing this regularization plan?
So, we must, we must, we must give to Caesar what is Caesar's. This regularization process, it's not Pedro Sanchez, you know. In 2020, there was an association called Rouarifa Fongia which started what is called a, you know, it's a popular legislative initiative which is found in the Spanish Constitution, article 873.
Uh, they had to collect 500,000 signatures, they barely collected 700,000. They went to see the Basque parliament which made a proposal of ours, they went to see the ayuntamientos. They went to see, but do n't start speaking Spanish. I do n't speak Spanish. There is certainly [laughs] even if it's very pleasant. So no, but what I mean is that in fact, I mean it's a popular legislative initiative, that is to say, behind this regularization, it's civil society.
Very interesting. He mobilized, he didn't have a choice, that means he had no choice Pedro Sanchez, he had to make this decision.
Think about it, if I'm being cynical, I mean that he got back something that was, after all, offered to him by civil society. I'm sorry, but I mean, it's the associations that are behind all this, and besides, it's a whole mess to get the papers because it's papers, it's still half a million people. It is the associations that are mobilized in Madrid to help because they are having a lot of difficulty. They're a little bit congested, aren't they, compared to everything else that's paper-based? So actually, no, but I think it's very good Pedro Schas, but excuse me, but wait, so now I'm going to get into the debate because he's also taking a political risk, anyway, in Los Angeles, well, we were talking about the Vox party, which has to do its thing about the regularization of 500,000 papers, so it's not a neutral decision, even if there are 700,000 Spaniards who signed a petition for a joke, much more than 700,000 Spaniards. You 've seen the polls and even employers, they still need workers somewhere. He has resumed what he had done for franchising. That's what he had done too.
I'm getting people talking about this topic. First Anne Charlin and then I'll come to you. a constitutional point. Well, we've had budgets in special finance law for 2 years now. Him too, in reality there is no complete majority, in any case a parliament somewhat suspended in Spain and that is why the initiative failed and that is why he can only act by decree and the conditions are so restrictive and it is obviously Vox that is blocking and in particular all the right-wing parties that can block this kind of initiative by law.
So I'm a bit stubborn, so I'll ask my question again. [laughs] Rosé, isn't this a gift from Pedro Sanchez to the far right or even the right? We can see that there are local agreements, if I understand correctly, between the right wing and Vox, particularly on these migration policy issues.
So I think I hear the words " national priority" being spoken in certain regions.
It's a gift in this relative sense. When he arrived in 2018, the far right represented around 25% of the Spanish Parliament.
OK. in 2023 where he does not win the elections because it is the People's Party, the far right uh falls to uh 15%.
OK.
So what is the value of this weekend today? Yesterday, there were elections in Indalucia. The right-wing party, which has regained one of the largest MPs in Andalusia, only represents 14%. So yes, but Pedro Sanchez's party has lost seats.
Absolutely. Quite. But that doesn't really raise the right-hand side since it's around 14-15% when it was at 25% in Spain. So that 's the first thing. On the other hand, indeed, with this policy, well, he was already obliged to apply it because there was also a coalition government with the radical left that was demanding the regularization of his paper 2. It should also be noted that there are around 800,8500 illegal immigrants in Spain. Calculation: we will regularize 500,000, but Spain, since he's been there, has already regularized 500,000 foreigners, so we'll be around a million, and politically it's not so bad because someone who settles in Spain will be able to apply for Spanish nationality after 2 years, and so politically he can ensure that in 2 years many immigrants who have been regularized and who have applied for Spanish nationality will be able to go and vote. To that I want to add that you know Spain has the law of democratic memories which has just received 2,500,000 nationalities from people who are abroad, particularly from Latin America. All these people will also be able to vote and will also be able to come to Spain and Europe. That's something else entirely. But the reality is that politically they win with all of this.
Yeah. I don't know if you are like me François Baudonet but when listening to the story of these regularizations, I think of Angela Merkel's Germany which had regularized 1 million Syrian refugees over a decade. Hey, it was in Ça va le faire, on va we va vous bienvenue quoi. We will welcome you. Did she pay the political price for it? What conclusions can be drawn from this? The party paid the price politically, even though they are very well integrated into German society, ultimately, it paid the price politically with the rise of the AfD, therefore the German far right which has literally exploded and which continues to progress particularly in the east of Germany. And to answer the question you asked earlier, whether Spain was a peculiarity, a rarity, an exception in Europe to do this, to regularize so many illegal immigrants, well in fact, there is one country which is not its ally at all, which is Italy, which is also a Southern European country with Georgia Melonia.
Georgia Meloni, she too, uh, for the same reasons because there is a need for labor because the population is aging, from the employers and at the request of the employers, Coffeindustria, Italian, and while on the contrary she says that we must close the doors to immigration, well she announced that she was regularizing hundreds, the figure by the way, the first figure is also 500,000, it's not completely by chance, but simply, obviously she doesn't put it forward since all her policy is rather based against immigration.
Yeah, indeed, if I remember correctly, in France we had a phrase from Gérald Armin who wanted to be nice to the nice, mean to the bad. There was a bill in which there was a section which was a regularization section at the request of the leg employers.
And that part, that leg, it has somewhat disappeared because there is political pressure here and besides, Pedro Sanchez's decision provoked a reaction from the president of the LR party here, Bruno Rotaillot, who wants to put Pedro Sanchez on the bench of European nations.
Listen to him explain it.
Yes, I was harsh with Mr. Sanchez and I stand by every word I said. What does the expression " to put on the bench" mean? It's an expression that means to condemn. Yes, I expect the nations of Europe, and especially France, to condemn Mr. Sanchez's behavior. For what? Because Shun, the erasure of internal borders is a European solidarity, and Mr. Schunen is breaking it.
This Europe of solidarity cannot function if individuals like Mr. Sanchez exempt themselves from it.
Well, obviously, it's Mr. Sanchez who breaks the revealing barrier. The slip of the tongue is interesting. Well, there's a question that perhaps reflects both the reaction of Bruno Rota and perhaps other European heads of state or government. You're going to tell us, François Baudonet. Paula, who writes to us, Daras, thank you for participating in our show. Will Spanish migrants be able to find refuge in the European Union? Are neighboring countries afraid of a migratory wave? What can we say about that, François Bonné?
So, uh, migratory wave, I don't think so. Finally, in any case, there's no need to worry about that. But what is certain is that once they are regularized, when they are regularized, then they will obviously be able to move around, they do not have a long-term resident card in the European Union for the moment. That's what I read while preparing the show. So it's a legal subtlety that means they're not supposed to be able to work immediately in another European country, if I understand correctly.
Yes, but despite everything, when you have the right to be in a European country, you have the right to move around in other European countries and it was actually under pressure from Spain that Latin Americans had the most... you'll correct me if I'm wrong, but I think 3 or 4 years ago now, they no longer needed a visa to go to Europe, whereas until now it was the case, for example, for Colombians who had to get a visa to go to Europe, and that was no longer the case, and it was under pressure from Spain because I have a figure that struck me. I was recently in Madrid and I obviously went there a long time ago.
It's really changed, actually.
Currently, there are 10 million foreigners in Spain. That's 20% of the population, it was less than 1% in 1995. And when we go to the streets of Madrid and other cities or large cities in Spain, we obviously see these people from immigrant backgrounds who are, uh, for the most part, but again, you'll stop me if I say something stupid, they are Latin Americans who come out, so that's the question I was going to ask you. They come mainly from the South American continent? Yes, 90% of those who will be regularized are Latin Americans. This is not different from Italy because Italy will mainly bring in people from North Africa. That's the idea. So we are Latin Americans who are already settled and mostly working. So we are going to bring to light this underground economy that already existed.
So no, they can come to Europe, but what we're going to give him in Spain is a title from this day and work for years, first of all it's 1 year. So they will indeed be able to come as tourists, for no more than 90 days per year. But you understand, and this is where Mr. Rotailleux, I think he went too far, uh, a Latin American, 90% of the people who will be regularized anyway and who finds that they work in Spain will not bother to get their papers and will run away to France to a country where it is very complicated to work, where they do not speak the language for the vast majority. So no, most of them will stay in Spain because they are already in Spain, we are not bringing them over.
Hotre, Carole Binal's opinion on this, on the reaction of Bruno Rotaillot or other European allies of Spain on this migration policy? Because this little voice keeps saying, "Oh, wait, there's the 'pull factor' theory, it's not confirmed.
I think it's rarely, if ever, been confirmed, but anyway, it's a rhetoric we hear a lot. Does it still weaken Pedro Sanchez on the European stage? I completely agree with him because, in fact, it's overwhelmingly Latin Americans, and then there's, you know, the tragedy of the Sahrawi people—I don't know how to say it in French, you know, the Sahrawi people, who are apostates, the poor things, they were Spanish 50 years ago—they aren't included in Pedro Sanchez's mass regularization. And that's an argument to say that, in fact, it's really, well, it's still mainly intended for Latin Americans who are very linguistically and culturally... You know, we have our Hispanic Day celebration on October 12th." Finally, I mean, well, he hasn't regularized immigration that came mainly from other, very distant countries, but from countries with which we still have extremely strong cultural ties. Extremely strong. What does that mean? Excuse me, I'm going to put my foot in it. It means there's a rejection of more Muslim, more North African immigration.
No, no, I won't just go there.
That's what I'm hearing from you. No, no, no, because you have to know that the largest population in Spain today is Moroccans, roughly a million.
So it's not simply a question of nationalities. It's true that the various crises that have occurred in Latin America have made Spain a destination country. In recent years, with Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have arrived in Spain. And the same thing has happened with Colombians and... Peruvians.
So, the result is that it's not that we don't want other cultures, because there are already 1 million Moroccans settled in Spain, just as there are several hundred thousand Romanians who have settled in Spain in the last 15-20 years.
Perhaps just one small point. I say, uh, integrating into the Schengen Area doesn't mean welcoming, right? It means that typically, if these people can move around within French territory, uh, it doesn't necessarily mean they can settle there. And we ourselves don't have a reciprocal obligation of integration or reciprocity with regard to this idea of irregular immigration.
Yes, indeed, it's, uh, it's this, uh, this long- term residence permit or not, we're dealing with this subtlety. I'd like us to look at some macroeconomic data. We'll finish there, what's left for us? Yeah, 7-8 minutes.
Um, to talk about Spain's economic results. We have a deficit, for example, that is 2.5% of the gross domestic product in 2025. That's something to dream about, isn't it? We were just talking about it earlier, we're above 5% in France. If we look at Spain's growth, it was projected at 2.8% in 2025, while the European average, you see this figure, was 1.5%. François Baudonet, does this Spanish economy depend on money from the European Union? And if so, to what extent? Because we could also say that about Georgia Meloni in Italy. It's true of Spain.
Absolutely. Absolutely. Because Italy was the first country to benefit from the European plan after Covid, and the second country to benefit the most was Spain with 80 billion in subsidies. 80 billion, roughly speaking, so around 160 billion. So, indeed, we've talked a lot in France about this Spanish economic miracle, but behind this Spanish economic miracle, there are indeed many subsidies. There is European money. These are often also small jobs, part-time positions. And so, this miracle could turn into a mirage, you know. And so, this growth, which for the moment, indeed makes Spain the economic engine of the Eurozone, but at the same time, Spain's economic fundamentals aren't all that good. It's not industry, it's not the industrial sector, that makes Spain work, but for example, it's its tourism. So, if there's another problem with a pandemic or something like that, and if tourism collapses, well, that means the Spanish economy will collapse with it. So, there is still... This aspect works very well, but it's also perhaps, as on the political front, extremely fragile.
I also read this while preparing the Rosé Dorado program: a lot of hiring in the civil service.
Which isn't absurd, by the way, coming from a left-wing government, but it's more than 600,660 people since it came to power. That's absolutely right. And roughly 250,000 more will be hired in the coming months. Let's not forget that 2020 is an election year, the legislative elections in Spain for Pedro Sánchez, so the Spanish civil service and then there's the territorial government. So, indeed, this is politically very interesting for Pedro Sánchez. Indeed, there are the macroeconomic figures. Let's not forget that Spain remains one of the countries with the highest youth unemployment in the European Union.
The countries with the highest unemployment rates... Young people and also women's unemployment. So we're not last in terms of unemployment because Finland just took last place from us, but there are macroeconomic figures that are very complicated for Spain. The housing problem in Spain is extremely complicated. There's no housing in Spain because it's very expensive. Today, we say that in Spain there are roughly 2 million " tanguis" (people living with their parents). I remember from a French film about people who stay with their parents until they're 30, 32, 33, 34 years old because they're unable to pay rent or an apartment. So Spain does indeed have very interesting macroeconomic figures, but everyday life remains quite complicated for a lot of Spaniards.
Yeah. Is there a wear and tear on the power of Carole Minals and Pedro Sanchez? We briefly mentioned the results of the regional elections in Andalusia. That was yesterday. It was this Sunday that they lost a number of seats.
So of course, their party lost seats, but on the other hand, the Andalusian left, Adelante Andalucía, is a new left-wing party. For Andalucía, it's Podémoire, they lost a bit, but Adelante Andalucía is a new left-wing party with a man named García, nicknamed Elface "the glasses" because he did something about free glasses for everyone. That's his law. He gained four seats with that party. That is to say, the Spanish left, the left without seats, is still very powerful, and it continues to be powerful in Andalusia because, in fact—and I believe this very strongly— we are the descendants of those who lived through Francoism, the post-Franco era, the horror of dictatorships in our families. We We had an economic crisis in 2007 which was abominable, and it led to a mobilization of civil society and the formation of left-wing parties because we know we have to be careful about these kinds of things. So the PO (Workers' Party) has weakened, certainly, but the left-wing parties, like the PSE ( Spanish Socialist Party), are also affected. Okay. There you go. Excuse me.
I'm putting myself in the shoes of our viewers who are perhaps a little less knowledgeable than you about Spanish political life. And it's not for nothing that he doesn't want to move up the election date because he's known for bouncing back.
He's considered a loser, everything is lost for him. We see, he's lost a series of regional elections in the last four months—four elections lost, that's four elections lost—but there could be a comeback, and he could [laughs] win the next elections, which will probably be in a year now, or with an ability to form alliances, to find new allies. With a bit of luck, we have... He said, "Why does he have a majority in parliament? How does he govern?"
Because, for example, on immigration, it's a decree, so it's a decree. Because since he said he arrived in 2023, he hasn't presented any budgets. There haven't been budgets in Spain since 2023. And the 2023 budget was based on 2022 figures. So imagine the discrepancy. So he operates by decree, but it's a coalition government without majorities. He 's held to the radical left, which supports this government, but not only the radical left, since you know, the Catalan separatists, the Basque separatists, the Catalan nationalists, the Basque nationalists. So, in fact, it's really a coalition of parties with completely different tendencies whose sole purpose is to keep it in power because it always gets advantages, like Mr. [Name], who he negotiates with. Precisely to continue in government.
Yeah. François Bon, is this a source of hope for other left-wing parties? You were talking about isolation [laughs] No, but you were talking about the isolation of left-wing heads of government in Europe today, either in the European Parliament or in their own countries, from saying to themselves, "Well, there you have it, we still have a Spanish prime minister from the left who is resisting Trump and who is implementing left-wing policies."
So, at the European level, well, I'm talking about his isolation, there is also the President of the European Council, the Portuguese Kochta, who is himself a socialist. Well, it's a bit different because he is President of the Council, so he doesn't vote, he leads the meetings. I think that socialist parties in Europe see all the particularities we've been talking about for the past hour and they know that what's happening in Spain may not be transferable elsewhere. So [laughs] There you go. And particularly in France, I think there's a fairly acute awareness of this difference. One last word though, we've hardly talked at all, even though you mentioned it, about the scandals surrounding his family, his wife, I believe, the corruption scandal, that's right, Carole Bignals, which is putting him in a difficult position. Yes, especially his right-hand woman, actually. The Abalos corruption scandal, which, for once, is proven. His wife, that's still under investigation. So, we can't comment yet. It's certainly weakening him.
His wife, it had weakened him considerably. You know, he took five days off to reflect on April 24, 2024, I think, and it really affected him, that they were attacking his wife. The Socialists developed with the years a part of the left. You know the notion of the offer, you know the use of law against law. And well, we can obviously wonder if this woman hadn't been Pedro Sanchez's wife, if she had done the same thing, she would have been attacked in the same way.
That's it for these university things. So there's his wife who will be sitting in the dock in a few weeks. There's his brother who will be at the end of the month for what is also related to corruption. There are the two right-hand men of the Socialist Party appointed by him, one of whom has been tried and the other will be in the coming weeks.
So corruption is really all around him, very close to him.
That makes the next legislative elections potentially exciting. Thank you all very much for participating in this debate. I'll see you soon on our show. See you soon on Public Sénat. Tomorrow, we'll see you from 6 pm to 10 pm.
You know our schedule. You can also review our debates on publicsenna.fr, listen to us again as podcasts, and then mark your calendars for the morning show. Our political guest will be Patrick Caner, the president of the Socialist group in the Senate, facing off against Orian Mansini. Have a great evening.
During the Third Reich, it was in cells like this one that 12,000 German resistance fighters lost their lives, hanged or guillotined. A little-known fact is that among Hitler's opponents, approximately 10% were women. Women felt the same hatred for this system. [music] These women resisted using every means at their disposal. They transmitted confidential information, distributed anti-Nazi leaflets, and saved Jews from deportation while the men were sent to the front. Thanks to their courage, they made a difference.
In Berlin alone, it is estimated that around 5,000 Jews were saved thanks to women resistance fighters. Yet, for these German women, resistance Joining the resistance within the dictatorship itself was a particularly difficult decision to make.
Joining the resistance was also, in a way—there's always this dilemma—fighting against one's own country.
3945, the German resistance.
Friday at 10 p.m. on Publics Sénat and publicsenat.fr.
This week on [music], our program "Au bonheur des livres" (The Joy of Books) features novelists we've followed for a long time, both of whom received the prize last year, and who this time both talk to us about America. First, Didier Decoin, who has published "Maypops," the story [music] of a serious miscarriage of justice that occurred in 1944 in South Carolina, a country of racial segregation. And then Éric Vuillard, who tells us the brief and dramatic fate [music] of a hero of a kind of Wild West myth, Billy the Kid, in "Les Orphelins" (The Orphans). " Au bonheur des livres" presented by Claire Chazal, Friday at 11 p.m. on Publics Sénat and publicsenat.fr. on publicsena.fr. FR.
Screens are everywhere, even in our children's pockets. Today, 57% of those under 20 experience negative effects from screens every week: lack of sleep, stress, tension. Should we be worried? Between addiction, cyberbullying, and the pressure of social media, a question arises: have screens become a danger for our teenagers?
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