Revolutionary Guard's Rising Power Reshapes Iran War Dynamics

本站添加: 2026-04-30

[00:00:00]The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is taking more control of the Iranian government. I'm going to talk to Professor Jack Cunningham from the University of Toronto about what are the implications for the resolution of the Iran war. Welcome to the interview, Jack.

[00:00:14]Uh, good to be with you again.

[00:00:16]A lot of people, including myself to be honest, don't know that much about the Revolutionary Guard. Could you give us a little bit of a a primer on that if you wouldn't mind?

[00:00:24]Well, they are essentially the um the principal military security uh force in Iran, also uh economic force because so much of the economy is funneled through entities they control, and uh political force. They've existed in uh in something of a cohabitation with the uh clerical regime. Uh, but the one of the things the outbreak of of hostilities seems to have done is um shaken up the balance of power internally. Uh, particularly with the uh the previous Ayatollah killed, uh his successor, uh whose whereabouts we don't know, whose uh health we don't know, possibly incapacitated, possibly uh well, quite clearly sidelined to some degree. And the Revolutionary Guard is uh not as theocratic in its orientation as the clerics, but it's every bit as uh hostile to the West. It's every bit as hardline, if anything more so. It It can be a very uh very intransigent, and I think we're going to see a much more hardline posture from Iran going forward.

[00:01:36]Now, we've seen the discussions between the United States and Iran fall apart at least several times. Uh, is that in perhaps in part due to the greater influence of the Revolutionary Guard in the discussions?

[00:01:50]It seems to be because it's far from clear if the uh the delegation that was in Islamabad on the weekend was actually empowered to uh to negotiate a deal, what to what extent they were constrained by the the Revolutionary Guard, kept on uh on a leash by it. Uh, it's it's actually not at all clear that there's anyone in Iran capable of negotiating a deal and delivering on it. I mean, we're we're we're having to speculate a lot about what's going on internally as and is uh as is always the case with a closed society, that's uh that's very difficult. But uh my suspicion is that um a deal remains elusive, uh whether it's whether it's because of internal disagreements or because of the Revolutionary Guard having decided it can uh it can it can profit by maintaining a hardline. There were a couple of things on the weekend that struck me as very telling.

[00:02:46]And one of them is that uh Trump uh decided he would not send Vice President Pence and the others to Islamabad after it seemed that the uh the Iranian delegation was leaving or had left, and he threw a bit of a tantrum about that and said, "Well, if the Iranians want to call me, they can just they can just phone." To me, this was sort of a variation of uh "You can't fire me, I just quit." Uh, they're walking away from the table, he wants to make it seem as if he's the one walking away from the table, as if he's the one who can afford to strike an an intransigent uh uh tone.

[00:03:21]Also, while he's uh uh declared a new ceasefire, interestingly enough, uh there's no deadline as of yet. So, it's unclear how long this uh this rather uneasy situation will persist.

[00:03:35]Trump is clearly under tremendous pressure. Uh, the the the the energy prices are causing him a great deal of political grief. The polls are showing that they're harming the uh the Republican Party a great deal as we uh as we uh as we're just a few months out from the midterm elections. And um he uh is looking for what he always looks for, a solution that will at least allow him to declare victory, however specious the claim may be. The Iranians don't seem inclined to give him that. Uh, this is really sort of a a contest on um a contest of endurance.

[00:04:15]Blockading the strait, and you've got uh the US blockading Iran, Iran closing it to everybody else. Um, the Iranians are gambling that they can outlast the United States. And they probably have uh have a good day have a good a good case to be made in that regard. It's it it's actually easier for a closed regime, a dictatorial regime, to bear these burdens than it is for a democracy, even a democracy headed by somebody who wants to be a dictator. Uh, a true dictatorship like what we see in Tehran can afford to simply impose greater burdens on its population.

[00:04:52]Jack, uh throughout the discussions that have taken place in the last, I don't know, 2 weeks, let's say. Uh, I'm having a hard time understanding what Iran's incentive might be to settle. They've already uh demonstrated that they can control the Strait of Hormuz. They're uh that's given them a fair amount of leverage uh in the region. Uh, the military attacks on the uh on Iran have inflicted damage, uh but the regime is still intact and and uh help me out here. Where what incentive would Iran have, aside from being starved out, I guess, uh to settle?

[00:05:30]Well, the denial of oil revenues that the US blockade is causing uh is a serious factor. But as as I said, the the regime can simply afford to pass those burdens onto its population in a way that Trump cannot do to to the American electorate. The Iranians, because of uh because of the control they now have over the strait, are in a significantly stronger position than they were at the beginning of the war.

[00:05:57]This is this is a new source of leverage for them. It strengthens their regional position. It's given them a degree of global clout because they can disrupt global energy markets. Uh, they're going to be pretty loath to relinquish that unless they get something very appealing in return, and Trump doesn't seem inclined to offer them that. So, you've got you've basically got two parties whose bottom lines are simply so far apart that uh that agreement anytime soon looks pretty unlikely.

[00:06:26]So, essentially, we have a standoff.

[00:06:28]And and a standoff is the worst scenario uh because nobody gets anything, and the uh global economy has to suffer through this continuing uh major uh energy shock.

[00:06:41]It does. And in order for the sort of stability we usually associate with though uh the world energy energy scene to return, we'd have to see a lot of things to to come together. There are a lot of moving parts here. We'd have to see not just an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but we'd have to see those mines cleared, that would take months. We'd have to see uh some way of uh of removing, or at the very least seriously containing, the Iranian military presence there. I mean, as long as the Iranians are physically in control of the strait, as long as they have naval vessels there, uh their navy has been damaged, it has not been destroyed, but as long as they can do that, uh they are in a position where they can very readily uh uh reimpose closure on the strait and uh and put us right back where we are now.

[00:07:32]So, in that sense, I think we can expect continued uncertainty, continued instability, uh continued high energy prices.

[00:07:41]What role might China play in resolving this? Because China is uh while it has a very large strategic reserve of petroleum, eventually that's going to run out, and it's going to impose considerable costs on China. Do you think that they might step in and try to mediate a deal?

[00:07:59]It's conceivable, but it's uh it's far from clear that they could come up with terms that would be acceptable to both the United States and Iran. And there's also the fact that uh China's interests here cut both ways. On the one hand, yes, they uh they are dependent upon Iranian uh energy. They have a stockpile that is finite. But on the other, uh geopolitically, it's very advantageous for them to see the US bogged down in the Middle East. Uh, so those incentives pull both ways. I'm not going to try to read Mr. Xi's mind, but I suspect that he's uh he's unlikely to be too vigorous, at least in the short term, in pressing for resolution, and it's far from clear that he could deliver Iranian and US agreement even if he wanted to.

[00:08:47]Jack, to the non a non non-expert like myself, the there seem to be parallels between Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It was supposed to be over in 3 days, and here we are entering the four we're in the fourth year now uh of the invasion. Uh, is there any Do you see the likelihood uh or the possibility that this might the Iranian war might drag on like it has in in the Ukraine?

[00:09:15]I think it could conceivably drag on, probably at a lower level of intensity, for uh for several years. Uh, most wars end up lasting longer than those who initiate them expect. You know, as a student of history, I can remember the uh the the the uh the talk at the outbreak of the First World War, people saying the troops will be home by Christmas. Well, 4 years later, that uh that all rang quite hollow. Uh, everybody everybody always assumes that military success is going to be much quicker and much easier than it usually turns out to be.

[00:09:49]Jack, as always, appreciate your insights. Thank you very much for this.

[00:09:52]My pleasure. Good to be with you.