FIGHT ERUPTS on SENATE FLOOR after TRUMP Bills are REJECTED Monday?!

[00:00:00]Today, mediators working to end the war in Iran say the first round of talks has ended with {quote} encouraging progress.

[00:00:07]But it comes against the backdrop of fierce criticism on Capitol Hill, even from many Republicans who are racking up a list of grievances with the president.

[00:00:15]Key Senate Republicans have bluntly slammed the outline for an Iran deal.

[00:00:19]Lindsey Graham over the weekend called for the president to let Jay Clayton be confirmed as DNI after Trump derailed hearing scheduled last week. And then there is the new condemnation from Senator John Cornyn who lost his re-election bid to a Trump-backed opponent in Texas. Must now congressional reporter Michael Schnell has been digging into this divide between Trump and Senate Republicans.

[00:00:39]Phil is back with me. All right, one Republican senator told you the fraught relationship between Trump and Thune is {quote} awkward for everybody. How so?

[00:00:48]>> Yeah, these tensions between the two men are unmistakable. Now, I spoke to a number of sources for the story who tell me that John Thune and Donald Trump have a functional working relationship. They don't talk every day, quite like Speaker Johnson and President Trump do, but they talk when they need to. But I was also told that oftentimes in private President Trump will perform what was called a gentle ribbing of John Thune and also ask his allies, "How do you think John's doing? What do you think he's doing?" Which sources also said is normal and he does it for a lot of folks. But again, the tensions have been unmistakable. The anti-weaponization fund that President Trump had rolled out, that completely delayed the immigration enforcement bill that Republicans led by John Thune were trying to pass. And then there was President Trump's appointment of Bill Pultney to serve as acting director of national intelligence. That thwarted a bipartisan deal to extend the US's warrantless spying powers, another embarrassment for Thune. And then we saw last week what happened with Jay Clayton, the president saying, "Actually, don't show up for your confirmation hearing." Which by the way, John Thune was fast-tracking that to try and prevent Bill Pultney from ever taking office. So we had those three things and this all comes on the backdrop of the Save America Act, which is the the voting bill that President Trump has so forcefully been wanting to pass, but it does does not have the votes on Capitol Hill. I opened the story with an anecdote about the day that Republicans began debate on that immigration enforcement bill, which remember, it was delayed because of the anti-weaponization fund. President Trump called up John Thune and demanded that he add this voting bill to the immigration enforcement bill. Well, John Thune said, "It's already failed once.

[00:02:20]We don't have the votes for it." But he said, "As a concession, I will try again." Lindsey Graham drafted that amendment. It went on the floor and it failed 48 to 50. But still to this day, Donald Trump is calling on Senate Republicans to pass this bill, calling on them to abolish the filibuster, even though there's no appetite there. So, John Thune and Donald Trump seem to be reading from different song books here.

[00:02:41]And what I heard from a number of Republicans is that they just don't think that Donald Trump understands how the Senate works, understands how Congress works. And it's making it like that GOP senator had said, "Awkward for everybody because when your two leaders are on a different page, the entire group's on a different page."

[00:02:57]>> So, sometimes when I hear a story like this, which I I think it could be interesting to it could be easy to misinterpret it as palace intrigue or to misinterpret it as like, "This week on the hill," right? Like, it is not a reality show. The reason that the relationship between Senate Republicans and the president matters is one, if you were actually interested in legislating, which question mark whether or not this president is actually interested in legislating, you would need there to be some type of working relationship in order to maneuver that maneuver that legislation through. And because the question we have come back to over and over again during the second Trump term is whether or not Senate Republicans in particular would ever stand up to this president and actually act as the check on his power that they are supposed to be. Um and so, to me, this story becomes an early indicator potentially of something that could become more substantive in time.

[00:03:49]>> Yeah, uh but I think the timing is for a reason, right?

[00:03:53]>> You think?

[00:03:54]>> Yeah, well, but I mean it has been clear since he regained the presidency at the beginning of last year that this moment between the primaries and the general election in the midterm year were going to be very dangerous for him because there were all sorts of incentives for Republicans to go sideways. They don't have to worry about his grip on the Republican Party for the primaries. They do need to worry about their own re-election chances in the general. Now, the Senate obviously is different than the House. The Senate, you know, they are not all up for re-election this year. But it is still the case that this was foreseeable that Donald Trump was going to need to do something to make his troops happy before the midterms.

[00:04:27]What's fascinating he's just done nothing. He's done nothing to try and do that. He has gone out of his way, in fact, to try and have the heavy hand of you do what I say because I am the leader. Like that's what that's continued to be Like if he tried all these things in January of last year, may have been a very different scenario.

[00:04:43]>> All right, Michael.

[00:04:45]Is it DOA, the SAVE Act?

[00:04:47]>> Yeah, Trump sort of has just lost hope here and I think this is a problem is that there are so many Republican senators who were in his ear, aka Mike Lee, saying this is possible, this is possible, but it's not. Uh we've seen already two votes on this. There was the first vote, and it failed. Then I reported today that it was the day that Republicans had began debate on that immigration enforcement bill, which had been delayed because of chaos within among Republicans, and Donald Trump called John Thune and demanded that the Save America Act be added to the immigration enforcement bill. Thune said the math isn't there. We don't have the numbers, but as a consolation, he said we'll try. There was an amendment on the floor, and it failed. Yet, the president is still pressing for this bill to be passed. He's still pressing for the filibuster to be abolished. That is something that is an institutional norm of the Senate that there are just not enough Republicans willing to go there.

[00:05:38]So, the president may think that pressure could work on this one. Mike Lee may think that pressure could work for the on this one. But this seems to be one issue, the filibuster, that they are willing to stand up >> I mean, I I want to believe you, um but I Leanne, you know, I've followed Donald Trump now for 10 years and I've heard Republicans say that they're on no one something only to have Donald Trump convince them otherwise. I know the filibuster is the biggest uh deal of them all, but I don't know. I mean, is is Mike Lee on to something? Is Roger Wicker on to something? Are the whispers a tell that there is the president does have leverage? Is it Bill Polti? Is it FISA?

[00:06:19]>> So, there are so many dynamics that are happening right now, Katie, that it is actually really pitting Senate Republicans against Senate Republicans.

[00:06:27]This is really dividing the conference because it is true. Uh John Thune doesn't have the votes to change the filibuster. It's also true that John Thune is not uh breaking any arms or twisting any arms to try to find those votes. It's also true that Donald Trump's White House Legislative Affairs team spent all of December trying to whip and convince Republican senators to get rid of the filibuster and it didn't work. They stopped that effort. His own staff stopped that effort because it was obvious that there were not 50 votes among Senate Republicans to do that. And so now I Donald Trump is all hung up on this Save America Act, which Remember, this is not just the voting ID legislation, the proof of citizenship legislation. It's also Donald Trump's version it which includes uh banning uh trans and trans women and or men and and women's sports um and other gender-related issues, which has not passed the house. Um and so this is a a thing that is completely dividing Republicans when Republicans so desperately want to be focused on the midterms, being united heading into the midterms. And I just got off the phone with the Senate Republican aide who said, "Not discouraging people from coming out to vote because if you get the base all riled up that the vote is not going to be fair because the Save America Act is not passed, Republican voters might actually stay home. And they think that that is not a good recipe for trying to maintain control of the Senate, Katie."

[00:08:18]>> What do you think about that, Governor?

[00:08:21]>> I would agree. And I think the filibuster, there's no way I I think they'll compromise on the filibuster or give up the filibuster for two reasons.

[00:08:32]One is you've got traditionals who are now on their way out, Tillis, Cassidy, Cornyn, who are not going to go along with the White House. And the And the second reason is some of the existing senators that are might be up for re-election in 2 years, they're afraid they're going to be in the minority. And then the Democrats will turn around and uh get rid of the filibuster because they have pressure on the left to do the same thing if they get the majority. So, what might help the Republicans this year to get one bill passed may hurt the Republicans a year from now when the Democrats will want to use that same tool to get uh controversial legislation passed.

[00:09:11]>> Republicans and Donald Trump. And it's very, very tricky prognosis. They are in kind of a could be a lose-lose situation. I mean, we'll see how the midterms turns out, but the Republican base, the primary Republican electorate is, as we all know, far different than a general electorate. And what might have been successful or not enough in a primary electorate for these Republicans um is it necessarily going to work for them in a general um and and it's a it's a dynamic and it's a calculation that these Republicans are having to make.

[00:09:51]But, we are in the time in the political cycle where policy and Capitol Hill gets very interesting to see what that calculation how they they move forward on this calculation and how far they're willing to separate themselves from the president. Um we'll see as the weeks progress, Katie.

[00:10:11]>> And Governor, just real fast, does that dynamic does that calculation change if Democrats win the House and the Senate?

[00:10:18]Do Republicans have anywhere to go? Do does the voting block change their loyalty?

[00:10:24]>> The voting block for both parties is going to be the independents, including right here in North Carolina. The independents now out-register both the Democratic and Republican Party individually.

[00:10:34]And it's the the independents that are going to determine these very, very close elections. And for example, if if the California congressional delegation goes so far the left and says these things, it may bring out the independent vote to vote for the Republican. If the Republicans continue to stay off message and talk about things like the mall and the ballroom and things like that, uh the Democrats are going to get the the independent vote. So, I think both parties need to start thinking about the independent voter.

[00:11:05]>> So, folks, I think this is really demonstrating that Republicans understand Donald Trump is corrosive to their electoral survival, especially in the Senate, where they have the luxury to a degree of of of being a bit more critical of Trump. They don't often share that criticism. They're cowards.

[00:11:26]But, every once in a while you see these fights percolate, you know, these these these behind-the-scenes in the Oval Office in the Senate hallways, in the Senate floor when the mics are off.

[00:11:36]These fights do eventually get to us and through the media.

[00:11:39]That Republicans in the Senate are not happy.

[00:11:42]And I get it. I do get it. The Senate and the House even. But the Senators have 6-year terms and they're a little bit more insulated from immediate Trump backlash, right? If you just got elected last year, you know, or that 2 years ago, you got four full more years before you have to deal with another election. Trump won't be president anymore. He may not be with us anymore in 4 years, right? So like there's a there's different incentives.

[00:12:06]But the point is um This this is a sign that that Senate Republicans are saying you're screwing us, Donald.

[00:12:16]These laws that you're putting forward that you're giving us kind of no choice here because if we block the law then MAGA's going to be frothing at the mouth and we're going to be dealing with the threats and the violence that comes with opposing MAGA.

[00:12:32]And yet if we do pass this legislation it's going to take a blue wave and just add another another few feet to that wave. It's going to be not only a blue wave, but a blue tsunami because these laws that you're making us do where you're where you're asking us to effectively bail out your cronies are not popular. These bills are not popular. They're not even popular with conservative voters. They're not popular They're popular with MAGA potentially.

[00:13:00]But the average Republican voter, remember not all Republicans identify as MAGA. And so those non-MAGA Republicans that nonetheless vote Republican don't like a lot of what they're seeing and may vote Democrat this time. Or more likely potentially, they just don't vote at all. But that's a win for the Democrats because it lowers the Republican vote total by one vote for every person that does that, right? And so Did for this fight to get uglier and uglier. Senate Republicans are terrified.

[00:13:31]They're terrified that Donald Trump is costing them this midterm election just like he did in 2022.