Severe Weather Threat Posted For Tuesday

[00:00:25]I'm chief meteorologist Mark Weinberg.

[00:00:26]This is meteorologist Rick Duca. We are doing our WDRB live tonight on severe weather potential for tomorrow. We rolled this video out on Friday. The first time we discussed this is Friday when the slight risk was issued. We said that that slight risk we probably would have waited a day or two, but we also noted that regionally this pattern produces severe. It's just we were not exactly sure is it, let's say, here or somewhere else. And even 24 hours out, there's still complexities to this setup that are going to make this still not an ultra easy forecast because there's widespread severe right now in the UP and Michigan, parts of Wisconsin into Iowa. And all that's coming in our direction, >> right? And then how does this reform?

[00:01:09]The morning thunderstorms, their behavior dictates what happens during the afternoon, which we all know is going to be a hot and a humid one. And with multiple waves of storms and their interaction, that's what makes this just so complicated. You know, I feel like if you get one wave, it's something else.

[00:01:25]But >> to have this sort of complexity with a forecast uh in an environment that >> is very supportive in terms of fuel >> for severe weather, um you I mean, you step outside, you know, it you're just you can feel how thick the air is from the AC to going outside. It's two different worlds out there.

[00:01:43]>> And we're going to turn sharply sharply cooler in the middle of this week. and sharply less humid. Unfortunately, to get to the much, much better weather, we may have to pay a price. Um, before we start the video, just a reminder to everybody out there. Number one, thanks for joining us in here. Number two, if you follow Rick Duca, great. You're going to get alerts if he goes live tomorrow. Follow me. Uh, if you don't on Facebook, you'll get an alert if we go live tomorrow. I will just note in terms of lives tomorrow, Mike Marshall is off right now, which means Bryce Jones is going to be doing the traffic in the morning and Rick Duca is going to be doing traffic in the evening unless severe weather comes in our shows, which we would ramp up. Um, if there are tornado warnings, we would still come into the studio and on Facebook lives as we normally would. If we don't have tornado warnings, we may not be able to get a live out tomorrow afternoon. So, we just want to mention that tomorrow the best mode to be able to capture us, unless it's a tornado warning is to make sure you tune to us on TV and you're like, "Well, what happens if I'm on the go?" Download the WDB Plus app. Super easy. You can stream it that way.

[00:02:45]Download the WDRB news app. Super easy.

[00:02:48]You can stream it that way. Go to wdb.com. Super easy. You can stream it that way.

[00:02:52]>> It's one of those days you got to have multiple ways to get warnings.

[00:02:55]>> Doesn't hurt. Doesn't hurt. Um and and some are going to say we're under a slight risk of severe weather.

[00:03:01]We were under a slight risk of severe weather in the northern half of our area on Saturday and we saw nothing. So I should expect nothing.

[00:03:09]I'm just going to say this much about that.

[00:03:13]You're right. Um and your reaction is right. And I believe that in my field we've got to do better. We cannot be telling you that a slight risk generates zero severe thunderstorms.

[00:03:29]Um, and we can't be under a scenario where a slight risk generates a tornado on the ground for 25 miles. Half of our area goes under warnings. And we can't have another slight risk that produces four tornado warnings in Orange County.

[00:03:42]A total of about 15 tornado warnings and about 75% of our area going under warnings. And then the same risk category applies to Saturday. We're nobody in that slight risk within our viewing area when under a slight risk.

[00:03:55]We don't issue those. The Storms Prediction Center does, but they've got to do better. This cannot continue to happen or people are simply going to start to ignore what we do. And it is a it is a very very real complaint that if you're saying that, I'm not going to argue with you. You make a valid point.

[00:04:13]>> Yeah. I mean, there's at some point you just reach fatigue. You're tired of being told one thing when nothing happens and uh >> the same thing and something does happen.

[00:04:22]>> I know that's that that one's the more concerning one that we've had um really no distinction between some of the levels of enhanced and slight. feel like I mean if I don't know what a slight is you at home >> then I don't know what it is right now as somebody that does this for a living um I know what the probabilities are but we are violating scientific principles so frequently on blatantly issuing slights where they don't apply true >> that I don't know how to define it anymore so what we're going to do in this video is go through this go through the setup go through the timeline I'm sure you want to know what the threats are where you live I'm sure we're going to get a bunch of people that are like, I want to know if there's a tornado threat tomorrow. Trust me when I say this, we're going to answer every one of those questions. Last before we start this is if you have not shared the video, please do. Why? About 1,200 people in here watching right now. I suspect that you probably have maybe let's say 100 people are following you.

[00:05:17]A lot of those people are going to want to know.

[00:05:19]>> Yeah.

[00:05:19]>> What to expect on a July summer scenario that we just don't get all that often.

[00:05:22]>> And if they don't know, they should know.

[00:05:24]>> They should give them the share and then they might be able to jump in and get the information that they want. So, please share the video. If you share right now, that's about 100,000 people.

[00:05:33]They'll be alerted that we're live and they have information that they may want to get. Rick, instability, these are the ingredients that we look for for severe weather. It's very rare that instability is an issue in summer. It's hot >> every day.

[00:05:46]>> It's humid. It's there every day. Some days it's there more than others, but it's always there. You're going to see when we go through this one, it's more um more generous than most summer scenarios, but it's almost always there.

[00:05:59]And this is kind of the fuel that you put in the gas tank of a car. I love the analogy, but what makes severe weather go? Well, you need to have an engine in there. You need to have um fuel in the gas tank or this doesn't work. So, fuel in the gas tank would come from warmth and high due points, >> which is there in abundance. And the due points will get higher >> before these storms get here, which means if you think it's humid right now, >> tomorrow it's going to be downright jungle-like with the humidity. It's still going to be another warm day. So that one it's almost a guarantee, >> but we'll show it so we can go through the thoroughess of it. But yeah, I mean the other one's the harder one in summer.

[00:06:35]>> It is. And to get the wind energy um with the jet just being pushed so far north, we really don't have the ability to tap into that. Uh and the last one on the list is forcing something to force that. We have a front coming in.

[00:06:46]>> Yes. And as we already noted, it's a powerhouse.

[00:06:48]>> It's a powerhouse. The fact that we go from 90s, well, today was technically upper. I felt like today was 90, but I know what my dad said.

[00:06:54]>> It wasn't. I know it wasn't. I was like, it was absolutely a normal day except it was ridiculously humid.

[00:07:00]>> I I think at this rate my body's just it's just >> overheating and just constantly sweating. So, I feel like I can't that one degree got me. But I I would have sworn it was in the 90s.

[00:07:10]>> It was not. But the humidity is really what just has you just suffocating. Um but that's a key component. Like we said, when it comes to severe weather, you can't just have one. It doesn't get the job done. You got to have all three of these together. And that's the important uh recipe that we like to follow here. So now you know what we are looking for. And here's that severe risk mark. Enhanced gets a sliver of our area.

[00:07:35]>> So this was an interesting one. Storms prediction center went quite aggressive and then pulled back. And you know we say this a lot. We're not of the feeling that being aggressive and pulling back is a wise way to do this. So, if you're in Louisville, yesterday you're like, I was in the enhanced and now you're like, well, today I'm only in the slight. And that downgrade makes people, I think, become less aware. Absolutely. I would want people to feel, oh no, I knew that this could happen, >> but I've been upgraded now and I need to be a little more alert. I just feel >> that the Storms Prediction Center doesn't look at the lines like we do. I think they look at it as, you know what, does it really matter if that was in Louisville or in Frankfurt? I mean, it's the same general area. Whereas, if you're looking at our area, Louisville is by far the most populous city in our entire viewing area. To put you in, pull you out, put you in, people in Louisville are looking exactly on that map, and everybody that lives in this area is finding their town right now on that map, and they're determining, I'm in X or Y severe weather. I'm in slight or I'm in enhanced. Now, some people have always asked which what means what?

[00:08:42]>> Mhm.

[00:08:42]>> Because some people have said, "Well, enhanced sounds worse than moderate."

[00:08:45]So, slight enhanced, getting worse, moderate. The worst we can go is high. So, what you're looking at is you're like, "Well, we're not under a high. We're not under a moderate." And you are correct. The Storms Prediction Center is talking about severe thunderstorms. They're not talking about an elite level event.

[00:09:02]>> Yes, good point.

[00:09:03]>> And I think that's important to note.

[00:09:05]damaging winds, uh, hail, some instances of large hail, and isolated tornadoes are in play here. Now, one of the questions I immediately get asked, Rick, whenever I post something like this is, do you agree?

[00:09:20]>> I get that a lot. So, um, I'm going to tell you, for the most part, I do. Um, but I'm also going to say that I would, um, drag the enhanced risk, um, down through around Crestwood. I would bring it through Hardensburg. I would bring it through southside of Louisville. Um and I would probably bring it um to around Campbellville and then I would move it back in in the corner like this. So that would be the expansion I would do. Why did the Storms Prediction Center not do it at at um 130 today? I'm going to tell you something. I appreciate they did it because they allowed us to get a little bit more data before expanding and then maybe contracting again because >> we need to know exactly what those storms in Iowa and Minnesota are going to do and and and uh Wisconsin before we can say with definitive nature what exactly is going to happen, >> right? And those storms were in the process of forming at that point in time. So yeah, I agree. Get a little more information, get this right. But the back and forth thing is just kind of, you know, it's confusing. And I would say no matter what, even though the enhanced right now only includes areas east of Shelbyville, so you're talking about uh Newcastle, uh Christianberg, those are the areas now included in that enhanced. What Mark is basically saying is I would expect some more areas to be included within this tomorrow.

[00:10:40]>> But they were waiting to get a little bit more certainty and in that I'm going to give them credit for that. I I I think that was really really a wise thing.

[00:10:47]>> That's a good way to approach it.

[00:10:49]>> So, we may get an upgrade for parts of the area tomorrow. And I would actually prefer it that way for someone to be like, "Oh, I didn't get downgraded. I got upgraded." Because when you get downgraded, I think sometimes people are like, "Well, it's not going to be anything." No, that's not what they're saying.

[00:11:01]>> Imagine you went to a hotel and they're like, "Oh, we're going to give you this suite."

[00:11:04]>> Exactly.

[00:11:04]>> And what? It's very, very different, but And then they're like, "Oh, no. You're >> we've downgraded you.

[00:11:08]>> We downgraded you."

[00:11:09]>> And you'd be like, "So, yeah. This is the total opposite with severe weather, but >> um but nonetheless, so um that's where the risk categories are. Let's get a little more specific in this risk.

[00:11:21]Regardless, these are not small probabilities. The enhance has a 45% probability of damaging winds. That's a solid probability. And all of the slight risk is a 30%. So, if you think about that within basically about 25 15 25 miles of a point, you know, just put a little cup around your area, you have about in the enhanced a 45% chance that there's going to be damaging winds in that in that cup around your house.

[00:11:45]Louisville's 30%. Um, does this mean everybody in Louisville gets rain? No.

[00:11:51]Does this mean everybody in Louisville gets severe weather? No. And I think that this is, you know, in the in the course of me doing this my whole life now, you know, I've been a meteorologist since 96, 30 years, >> the still hardest thing that I struggle with even with family is that when you put a rain probability on there, unless it's 100%.

[00:12:14]Nobody said it's going to rain at your house. my my parents, my family, siblings, everybody, they they get to a rain probability and they're like, "It's going to rain." And I even saw somebody's comments says, you know, "Is it actually going to rain this time?"

[00:12:29]Um, because you said it was going to rain. And I look, I I get it. I I really do. And I'm not, you know, I'm not trying to say that. I don't understand.

[00:12:37]But I It's also hard for us to get a point a point across like Saturday as a 50%. I got virtually nothing at my house and then in the southwest side of Louisville got poured on. I assume you saw nothing where you live.

[00:12:51]>> I mean, it looked like it was going to open up and pour, >> but we have to account for that.

[00:12:55]>> We have to account for you not getting rain and me getting a little bit and the southwest side of Louisville getting dumped on. And that's that's some of the challenges here.

[00:13:02]>> It's difficult. I I feel like it's also part of human nature where you just you just want a yes or a no. Yeah.

[00:13:07]>> And unfortunately, we cannot work with inside those sort of boundaries. Uh it's just not possible. And we're also covering a large area.

[00:13:16]>> Exactly.

[00:13:16]>> And that's what makes it difficult as well. I know, you know, Louisville obviously is the hub, the biggest city, but we cover a lot of areas in Indiana and Kentucky aside from Louisville itself. And that's, you know, another >> hard element of forecasting here is trying to cover the vast variety uh of absolutely, you know, the range that we have covering north to south. So that and also tomorrow that's going to be important because there's going to be >> storms that hit some in the morning and not others and there's going to be storms in the afternoon that will hit some and not others. And the communication of that it's difficult. So there's the potential for two waves.

[00:13:50]>> Absolutely.

[00:13:50]>> But it doesn't guarantee you know you have chances two times.

[00:13:53]>> We have a 70% tomorrow. So there are going to be areas that don't see rain.

[00:13:57]There are going to inevitably be areas.

[00:14:00]So this is the damaging wind probability. Somebody asked is Louisville in the 45%. That's not accurate. Louisville right now is in the 30%. Would I upgrade Louisville into the 45%? I would probably the southern half, but I would not the northern. Um, from here we're going to look at the tornado threat. Yes. Um, the tornado threat is at a 5%.

[00:14:19]>> So, would I expand this? Um, >> I would expand this marginally to the west and I would come back around through approximately here. So I would say including um Shephardd'sville which is on the verge of that Hardensburg, Lichfield, Etown um through Campbellville and Greensburg, Springfield. I would include in the 5%.

[00:14:40]Um but right now as it stands um Louisville in the 2% probability of a tornado. It is possible Louisville gets a nudge on that, but I think that's going to be very very very very driven by what happens uh late tonight into early tomorrow morning. But this gives you your your uh threat there. Rick, we did see thunderstorms earlier this afternoon. Um, if you're one of the lucky in Shelby County, you got rain. If you're not, um, basically north of 64 in Shelby County, you're like, "What?"

[00:15:05]>> Yeah.

[00:15:05]>> What are you talking about, man? But you could see in motion here.

[00:15:08]>> This, I think, starts to give you the idea of the complexity here, Rick. Look at how fast the anvil >> on those storms are racing southward.

[00:15:15]So, that is it.

[00:15:17]>> Um, and I think what's very interesting about this, Rick, >> let me go back to that real quick, is that there are two distinct areas. Yeah.

[00:15:25]So, we're not just talking about one cluster of severe and what it exactly does. We're talking about a cluster of severe that's going through the Great Lakes. We have a cluster of severe that's diving almost due south out of Iowa. And then we have a cluster of severe um that's in southeast Iowa that's moving more southeast. And so, you can see that there are distinct gaps.

[00:15:47]>> Yeah.

[00:15:47]>> In between that. In fact, from southern Iowa through Green Bay, there is a massive gap where there is no severe weather. And so, this then creates this really challenging scenario.

[00:16:01]>> Where exactly does this end? Um because we know full well the computer models are simply not going to do a great job with this, Rick. They >> paint the picture. They don't do a good job in all the incredibly fine details that tell the story.

[00:16:15]>> No. And that's why you kind of have to understand how the computer models work.

[00:16:19]And often times these can end up farther south.

[00:16:21]>> Yep.

[00:16:22]>> And you can gap places and the fact this is biodal makes it so much more complex.

[00:16:27]Uh >> one's on the instability, one's near the upper level.

[00:16:31]>> Yeah. Exactly. And so this I mean this this is going to be a challenge for sure, but that's why we're confident in those storms, those ones that you see south Chicago, that's the boundary that will be here tomorrow. that's going to be the focal mechanism for additional thunderstorms. So, we're starting to see things take shape. We are in some way, shape, or form.

[00:16:49]>> And now, what's going to be critically important is the late data and how far it moves that cluster of storms south tomorrow. Because we're going to make the case as to why this is important.

[00:16:56]>> So, number one, if you watched our video on Friday, you heard us say that when we have a dip in the jetream in the eastern part of the US, this is a scenario that is notorious for generating severe weather in the Ohio Valley. We've got that exact scenario where we have a dip in the jetream. When we talked to you on Friday, what we told you is is we really needed to understand exactly where the Monday night storms were going to be to define exactly where the greatest threat would be on the Tuesday storms. So, that's kind of where we are. We have a weather pattern that is notorious for generating severe weather. By the way, that low um south of the panhandle, Florida is now >> Bertha.

[00:17:33]>> So, now we have our first tropical storm of the year, which is probably not why you're here. Um so, let's get into this, Rick. Um, we're 86 in Louisville with a D point of 71 and it feels like a 91.

[00:17:43]It's not comfortable, but you know, when we went to dinner tonight, I don't know about you, I didn't say anything about it, but I felt that it was a vast improvement versus when I came in. I'm not saying it wasn't warm and humid, but when I left the gym, it was around noon today. It felt horrible.

[00:17:58]>> Really? See, I was I was just get out of bed. That's what >> Yeah, I slept in a little bit, but >> a little bit.

[00:18:03]>> Just a little bit. I I I thought it was disgusting. I I but I but I wasn't up at noon at that point so I can I cannot give the fair >> assessment of that.

[00:18:13]>> Well, it's 83 in Etown with the disgusting. We can agree on the D point being disgusting in Etown.

[00:18:18]>> 76.

[00:18:19]>> So remember, we're not showing you this just so you can look at some pretty cameras. We're trying to establish the concept.

[00:18:24]>> If there is instability and it comes from warmth and high due points, >> there's no lack.

[00:18:30]>> There isn't. And that may be a nice sunset actually coming in out of Seymour a little bit later. So, I'm kind of excited to see that one. 84 due point 73. Um, feels like 90. So, I mean, look, it's it's hot and humid out there. I'm not going to spend massive time on this.

[00:18:43]It is warm around the area. The atmosphere supports warmth tomorrow. The due points are quite high. And Rick, this is where I'm going to take this into the fuel. I'll spend time on fuel.

[00:18:53]Mr. Duca will focus then afterwards on wind energy. So, before we look at this, I think a reference point is always something that's important. If you're looking at data, you have to understand the reference point. If I just show you a map with 1400, you may say that's insignificant.

[00:19:09]Conversely, you may say, "Wow, 1400s of units of instability are massive."

[00:19:14]Without any reference point, how are you supposed to know? So, what are we looking at here? The instability, we can get severe if we have winds changing direction with height at about 500 units. Um, without winds changing direction with height, I'm going to say a thousand's more of what we would like to see. Um, I'm going to tell you that in our major severe weather events, which obviously normally occur in spring, we have 1500 to 25. Um, there are u scenarios in our area that get to three. There are the rare that get to four. But remember, this is one portion.

[00:19:46]What would I consider moderate? I'm going to say in the Ohio Valley about 1,500 to 3,000. I'm going to call strong instability in the Ohio Valley over four. And I would call it extreme if it exceeds five.

[00:20:00]So, this is 10:00 a.m. I want you to see 10:00 a.m. partially because that initial wave coming out of Iowa and Wisconsin is going to be moving in our direction midm morning. And I know this isn't peak heating, but the fuel is very, very, very present. And in fact, it's moderate. It's moderate to strong already at 10:00 a.m. And you can see by noon, you've got 3500 units of instability in Seymour, 3,100 in Hardinsburg, 3,200 in Frankfurt, and 4,000 in Elizabeth Town. In fact, I wanted you to see two because it's not showing approximately. The numbers there in the white are exceeding 4,000 and black would be five. So, you have some areas that are south of the river that are approaching 4,500 units of instability.

[00:20:55]Why does this matter? I'm going to give you another analogy because I I haven't done this one before, but if you have ever seen a hot air balloon, what happens when they fill it with the fan? You're like, it doesn't go anywhere. It's literally just air in there. What happens when they pull the I don't know if it's is it called an after burner or what what is that thing called?

[00:21:18]>> I would say something >> the burner the burner >> when they pull the burner it heats up the air.

[00:21:24]>> What happens if they hold that burner for a while? It really heats up the air.

[00:21:28]So what happens as the air gets hotter?

[00:21:30]The balloon starts to rise. So the instability is telling you how fast the air will rise. The actual technical math is 2 * the square root of cape ex equals the maximum velocity of vertical air rising in miles per hour. So 2 times the square root of 4,000 would give us what our max velocity of air rising can be.

[00:21:56]This becomes really important because 4,000 units if you get the right wind energy a um can generate severe but b can generate large hail. And with the units of instability being so high, that's why we mention large hail. You'll see that through three, Louisville is still pretty solid. You'll notice southern Indiana, not quite as much. And we'll explain a little more as to why. And you're going to see by six now, the instability is starting to get squeezed southward. So the time frame it appears that the instability is starting to wne in Louisville is coming in around 5:00 pm.

[00:22:32]So Rick, before 56 PM, Louisville and really all of Kentucky has substantial instability in our area. But as we noted, one part of the equation. So we've now been able to put a check mark in the box of instability. Yeah, I'm just going to touch on it. There's a cold front. We've already told you it's going to get way cooler. We can put a check mark in the box of that. yours is a little more interesting as Rick is going to start to talk about wind energy and because there are some interesting scenarios here.

[00:23:03]>> Yeah. So, basically what we look for are winds of 40 miles hour a mile above the ground and that's where we are at 850 millibars. So, keep an eye for 40s and pockets of it. During the morning, we see we're subpar. Now, there could be storms rolling through during the morning hours tomorrow. uh and they could be in a weakening phase, but I still think we could see two waves, morning warnings possible and then more numerous warnings during the afternoon.

[00:23:31]So, let's fast forward and go in the afternoon. And what you notice is there's 5:00. Winds are not quite at 40.

[00:23:40]They're just shy or very close to what we would consider criteria for organized severe weather. So, here's at five. And then we continue on and you can see that they come back down around 10 11 o'clock. So we wind energy is something that you need to have enough of for these thunderstorms to inhale and exhale and we're not really seeing it outrageous over the top, but there's just enough to see combined with the high fuel. So here's the thing. It's not just the instability and then the wind energy. It can also when one lacks >> or one is way over the top >> or one overachieves then you can kind of make up for some of what the other one lacks and tomorrow's one of those days where we have low shear but high cape which is the instability and in these scenarios because there's just so much fuel. These thunderstorms can kind of do things that you wouldn't normally suspect.

[00:24:38]>> If this was 500 units of instability tomorrow is a non-factor at all. It's substandard, but the fuel is so over the top in the strong category that it's going to make up for in a sense what we would refer to as slightly substandard energy. It's not overly substandard, but it's slightly.

[00:24:56]>> Thank goodness it's not above standard.

[00:24:59]>> If it was over the top, we would have a mega mega mega mega mega problem tomorrow. But, you know, it's summer.

[00:25:04]So, what we're going to do, Rick, I decided to put this one in here.

[00:25:08]>> We're going to take the wind energy.

[00:25:10]>> We're going to take the fuel. We're going to throw it into a pot. We're going to mix it up and we're going to come up with a graphic that we call supercell composite. So supercell composite tells us if we combine the wind energy with the fuel, how ro how likely are these storms to rotate?

[00:25:29]Rotating thunderstorms enhance tornado threat. Rotating thunderstorms enhance hail threats. So you can see tomorrow morning the supercell composits in southern Indiana and through Louisville are north of five. Now you're probably asking like in a spring scenario where we we had a lot of severe. Let's go back to the long track tornado.

[00:25:51]>> These were about 20 to 25.

[00:25:53]>> So we're not in the same category.

[00:25:55]>> But for summer getting more than five is really rare. These are normally ones.

[00:25:59]>> Yeah.

[00:26:00]>> So let's move this into the afternoon.

[00:26:02]We'll continue to look um early afternoon. You can see that the area is now starting to transition near and south of the Ohio River. And you can see that continues through about three.

[00:26:13]Remember, we've got fuel at three. We do have a level of wind energy. But you can see by 5 6 7 8 this is starting to go south. Worth noting that while this line is in our area, you still have numbers in the southern part of our area that are north of three. So Rick, rather than getting ultra incredibly complicated on this one, I think it is important to know what we just showed says that there is a tornado threat.

[00:26:37]>> Yep.

[00:26:38]>> It's not going to be elite. There is one and there is a large hail threat. And I think this large hail threat is kind of getting dismissed a little bit tomorrow, which I don't think it should be.

[00:26:48]>> No, we honestly haven't had a lot of hail events, if any.

[00:26:52]>> Did you just say that?

[00:26:53]>> Yeah. Which one?

[00:26:55]>> Knock on wood. We haven't had a lot of large hail. You don't want Now you just jinxed us for tomorrow. You jinxed us now.

[00:27:01]>> I know. Oh, I thought we haven't had a lot of hail events this year. Sorry.

[00:27:04]>> What do you think I was saying?

[00:27:06]>> I don't know. I got I was >> Are you still in a food coma?

[00:27:09]>> I'm in a little I'm dehydrated. I'm telling you. It's the lack of hydration.

[00:27:12]>> That's why I bring water in here. I know. I'm tell you sun this weekend, too.

[00:27:17]>> I I did get a little bit of sun. A little too much sun. I got inside on Sunday. I was like, "Oh, no." So, um I think that the idea that there could be large hail, I think that the hatch, which means that there could be significant hail, I think should include our area tomorrow. I do think there could be some.

[00:27:35]>> If we have updrafts and we have that much instability, we can create large hail. And the stronger those updrafts, the larger the hail can become >> and um >> if we can get supercells, they can last a little while. But the supercell composite is saying yes, we can, >> right? And just so you know, severe hail is basically an inch plus. So if you went in your pocket, I don't know if you carry change any around maybe.

[00:28:00]>> Does anybody actually >> I don't know. I like to once in a while.

[00:28:03]But >> really >> only quarters.

[00:28:04]>> I can live with that.

[00:28:05]>> Yeah. Just just in case I have to pay.

[00:28:07]>> Not a half dollar.

[00:28:08]>> Not a not a jia coin.

[00:28:10]>> None of those. But again, if you have a quarter, that's about an inch in diameter. You know, that can be your reference point. If it's larger than that, you can start to get damage to siding, the roof of your house, the tabs can come off. So that it's more problematic once it gets above an inch.

[00:28:24]Usually when it's tiny hail like P size, it doesn't do anything. Just accumulate kind of cool to look at, bouncing off the ground. But we are talking about the potential for hail which may may do some damage tomorrow. Now, does that mean everyone's going to see that? No.

[00:28:38]>> No. But we we could see instances of >> instances of localized hail, which is on the larger side, an inch plus in diameter. Absolutely. on the table.

[00:28:46]>> So, some people are now asking what time. So, I want you to focus. Let's make eye contact here.

[00:28:54]So, we're going to show you the map.

[00:28:56]Find where you live on the map. Okay?

[00:28:58]I'm going to show you the map. Let's do this together. I live in Louisville. I know where that is. Now, you you're like, I live, Mark, in Shepherd'sville.

[00:29:05]My name's not on the map. You're right.

[00:29:07]But just go south one county of Louisville. You're there. You're like, Mark, I'm in Lichfield. I'm not in Elizabeth Town. Well, just go one county southwest. Mark, I don't live in Hardinsburg. I live in English. That's one county north of Hardinsburg or one county south of Pavey. Mark, I live in Deo County. I am in Jasper. It's not on the map. Yeah, correct. But it's just west of Poli. So, find out your location here. Okay. Now, that's point number one. Point number two is now look at the top right part of the screen. That is the time. So, let me advance this into 7 tomorrow morning. So now you found your town. Now you have found the time. 90% of the questions we're going to get here is what time will this be in my area? Um what should I expect? So this is going to answer a lot of questions. And Rick, let's recap before we go through this.

[00:29:56]Fuel by midm morning is substantial by 10:00 a.m. Um really what's going to happen here and is critical. And you can see on the top of the screen there, that's the cluster of thunderstorms.

[00:30:08]That's near Iowa um through Wisconsin coming southward. Y >> what would likely happen overnight slightly weaken >> but it may reintensify near daybreak >> right >> um because the fuel starts to come back up very very very quickly >> as the sun comes up the fuel follows shortly thereafter.

[00:30:24]>> So you'll notice that there's a midm morning cluster. Should we take everything we're seeing here verbatim?

[00:30:31]>> I wouldn't.

[00:30:32]>> It could be a little further west.

[00:30:33]>> Could be a little It could be west.

[00:30:34]>> Maybe a little further east. maybe a little further south, but we get the idea that generally north of 64 sometime in the midm morning time frame, there is a cluster of storms >> and there could be more with that actual line itself as well.

[00:30:48]>> Exactly. And we know that this portion of the line should still be able to generate severe. This would be less likely to produce large hail, but it's not impossible. Um, so hail, damaging winds, and yes, even an isolated tornado in the morning because we do have supercell composits could happen. So, it's not impossible, Rick. Sometime around midday, this one's probably going to let go. It may take until two. What that will do then is lay a boundary, which becomes a focus mechanism for an afternoon regeneration of storms.

[00:31:24]Second, south of that boundary, the winds would have more of a southerntherly component. North of it, more of a westerly component. So, there would be a little turning with the winds south of that boundary, which would enhance hail, slightly better chance of a tornado. North of that boundary, while you can still get severe, it would probably be a little bit weaker, a little bit less intense. So, where does this thing let go? The data shows somewhere near Louisville. That said, Rick, you and I have done this a while.

[00:31:53]these clusters if they form into hellacious lines which I don't think this is going to can really drive further south. This one because what we're seeing between that broken line on the biodal you mentioned probably is not going to go wild and just blasting too far south >> right because it lacks some of that you know severe signal on it. So this should leave this boundary somewhere near 64.

[00:32:18]And what you're going to see is we then start to ignite that late in the day.

[00:32:23]This is four. There is ignition. So the ignition then is occurring somewhere between 4 and 5. Now make no mistake, the fuel, as I showed you, is absurd at this time. It's absurd. And wind energy, as you mentioned, is maximizing at this time.

[00:32:40]>> Slightly substandard, but maximizing.

[00:32:42]And this is A little turning.

[00:32:45]>> That was the That was I say you said turning and a lot of people on here were actually saying is there is there any speed shear, directional shear.

[00:32:51]>> I love that people know this. It blows my mind that we have so many weather nerds out there because obviously we're weather nerds ourselves. We love that you're weather nerds, but it makes us feel like we've accomplished something.

[00:33:01]>> Yeah. I mean, I cracked a smile just sitting here reading because you know, see I see you're probably watching me look down quite a bit. That is I'm reading through the comments as they come in. So that >> sometimes you see one crack a smile.

[00:33:11]This one was for the directional shear, which like Mark said, there is a little bit of that tomorrow. Um, so I think kind of the message here is we could see some warnings during the morning.

[00:33:24]>> Absolutely.

[00:33:24]>> But I think we'll see more warnings during the afternoon because of because because of these two things coming together, >> right?

[00:33:31]>> And Kentucky on the southern side of I 64 certainly has a better opportunity at seeing more warnings. And you'll notice after the ignition point, you'll see that it just starts to expand.

[00:33:42]>> Yeah.

[00:33:42]>> Um and with 4,000 units of cape and a cold front and slightly substandard wind energy, it should be exploding. And so quickly after ignition occurs, they should go severe within 30 minutes.

[00:33:53]That'll be very, very likely. Um if the boundary is a little further south, obviously that would more of a threat to southern Kentucky. Let's say the boundary let's go um and drifts a little further north to let's say um Henryville. That would be an area that we'd watch more. But understand there is some room for play here. We're not going to throw a dart right now because we need to still see the late data now that the storms have fired. But we're going to see ignition somewhere near the 64 corridor, mid late afternoon. And you can see numerous strong to severe thunderstorms as we move towards 7.

[00:34:25]Rick, you also get the idea if ignition's occurring around 4 and these storms are moving out around eight, the window of severe is not large here. This is not one that's going to last for all day long.

[00:34:38]>> No.

[00:34:38]>> That said, there is a possibility of morning severe and afternoon severe, but there's probably going to be a pause in between that because the morning at some point will weaken and then it'll take till mid late afternoon for the secondary area to fire.

[00:34:55]>> So, it's not like you have to be on edge the entire day, but there is a 12-h hour window. Yes. Where we'll see two waves of thunderstorms.

[00:35:01]>> I agree with that statement.

[00:35:02]>> From 8 to 8. So that's 8 to8 the time frame like Mark said in between the two there's going to be a little bit of a lull but we're watching both these very carefully and then after that front slides through it's smooth sailing the rest of the week.

[00:35:14]>> So let's then come back around and let's look at these risks again and let's go through the categorical and the probabilistic. Um slight risk of severe weather includes all of our area again.

[00:35:27]I know, I know you're saying, "Mark, we were under a slight in southern Indiana on Saturday and nothing happened." And look, I'm not going to argue with you, but what I'm going to tell you is a slight risk is justified, especially in southern Indiana. Um, I'm going to argue that the enhanced, I think, should come through South Louisville, go to Hardinsburg, and then south through maybe around Colombia or Bowling Green in that area. Um, damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are the main threat. Probabilistically, Rick, you can speak to some of these probabilities. Yeah, I mean once you see that big pop of purple that is a 45% of within 25 miles of a point at dealing with damaging winds in Louisville it's a 30 and then down to the 15 for the yellow but I would say a vast majority is in the 30 that kind of entails most of us um you know which if you get some damaging winds that could knock down tree limbs it could lead to some power outages um that's the kind of stuff that we're worried about tomorrow uh especially people being out and about two waves the storms. Sometimes people see one, think, "Oh, that's all we got to worry about." But then a second one pops out. So that's why it's very wise to be weather aware tomorrow.

[00:36:35]>> Also a tornado risk. Uh it's a 2% in Louisville, but it ramps up to that five in that brown zone, which is just south and east. Kind of that area that you kind of said, >> you know, this is this is the zone to watch more carefully for some changes, meaning there could be um more severe in that location. But for now, this goes right up through Nelson County, Washington, Marian County, Taylor County, and through most of Shelby County as well.

[00:37:02]>> And one thing I will mention here, and you've heard me say these words very many times, we're going to have to watch on the western flank of the morning storms. You can get it what's called a tail and Charlie. A tail end Charlie can rotate a little more, and you can indeed get tornadoes on that. So, don't uh ignore the morning wave. um where the morning storms die will dictate the flare point for the afternoon.

[00:37:25]Everything is surrounding that. Um and that's why we have to somebody's going to say, "So these are firing on Louisville."

[00:37:32]>> I know.

[00:37:32]>> Could these fire in southern Indiana?

[00:37:34]Could they ref fire near Etown?

[00:37:37]>> To all three of those, yes. It depends on where that boundary lays down. And you the difference of 50 miles on an outflow boundary on a severe cluster of storms is something that we simply do not have the ability to resolve. It's not that we don't. It's that the tools that we use simply do not have that skill set. So somewhere near 64 is going to be that reef flare point. Is it 30 miles south?

[00:38:03]>> Is it 30 m north? Is it on top? These are all possible. So this is a good roundup of what to expect tomorrow. Um, I'm gonna just throw this at Rick. Um, I'm not I'm going to give my opinion on it, too. Do you think we see warnings tomorrow?

[00:38:18]>> Yes.

[00:38:19]>> Do I think we see warnings tomorrow?

[00:38:21]Yes. Do you think we see a tornado warning tomorrow?

[00:38:25]>> You don't have to say yes or no. I'll >> I It's one I don't want to answer, but I'm >> I'm going to say >> I'm going to I'll be a little more vague. I'm going to tell you.

[00:38:35]>> Say at least at least one.

[00:38:36]>> Okay. I'm going to say that I think we'll at least get severe with tornado possible in a couple storms.

[00:38:40]>> That's a better answer. And it is possible that we could get a couple tornado warnings. Um, and I'm just going to say this part. Um, I think that both of these I think morning and afternoon have equal probabilities of generating severe. That said, I just think if you're asking number of warnings, morning versus afternoon, I think there'll be more in the afternoon.

[00:38:57]>> Yeah, I totally agree with that. And I do feel that uh, you know, while you may go under a warning, maybe you don't see damage, then that's going to be a good thing. But there's going to be a a handful of people who end up going under severe thunderstorm warnings, which is why when your phone starts going crazy, we want you to listen and and realize that this is one of those days where damaging winds is still the main threat at the top of the list by far. Do not get that wrong. But there could be some areas that experience some large hail.

[00:39:24]And if you've ever been in a hail storm, >> um >> they're terrifying. Have you ever been in a really bad one?

[00:39:30]>> Not not as bad as you.

[00:39:31]>> So true. This is a true story and I've told you this one before. Um so I started chasing storms. Um I went to University of Oklahoma in 1996, got my bachelor's in 98 and got my worked on my masters till about late 99. 1996 I was a So I thought because I had, you know, watched some tornado videos that I could chase storms. So I went out there like a We went after a storm.

[00:39:58]Lake Eupfala. I don't know if you remember it. We were in a Beretta. Do you remember >> the Betta story? We're in a Beretta.

[00:40:04]We're in a Beretta. We are driving south of the storm. Little known to us, the supercell, which was going northeast, was about to make a right move. We're driving along, and keep in mind, we don't have real-time radar at that point. It's eyes on the storm. We're driving along, storm's paralleling us, and all of a sudden, it's getting dark quickly, and we're like, uhoh, that storm just changed motion. Now we're starting to get some nickels. Now we're starting to get some quarters. Now we're starting to get some ping pongs. Now we have baseballs. And every time one of those baseballs hits the car, it's this horrific thud that you cannot even possibly imagine. And it grows all the way to softballs.

[00:40:49]>> What?

[00:40:49]>> Every time the hail hit the roof of the car above me, it dented down towards my head. We're like, what are we going to do? So, we drive on somebody's lawn and drive under the tree in their front lawn hoping that it would help. The moral of the story was we were morons. We I needed more meteorological understanding before I went out there and chased. In the end, it the vehicle was totaled.

[00:41:12]>> I was going to say, whose car was that?

[00:41:13]It was Eddie. Eddie Cer was his name.

[00:41:16]The vehicle was complet.

[00:41:19]We got out of the car, Rick. It looked like somebody had a sledgehammer and was smacking the car everywhere. Literally.

[00:41:26]Yes. Hulk smash everywhere, all over the car. So, my moral of the story here is don't underestimate the experience of how horrific it can be in large hail and the damage >> that it can do.

[00:41:40]>> I mean, you're lucky you're in a vehicle. Imagine getting knocked in the head by something like that. No thanks.

[00:41:44]So, >> yeah. 100 mph. So, softballs would fall at 120. Baseballs would fall at 100. So, if you're wondering what it would be like to get hit with a a baseball sized piece of hail, >> MLB, >> go over to Slugger Field and and do a Happy Gilmore. So, stick your chest out and ask a pitcher to throw a ball at 90 miles an hour and let it hit you in the chest. Now, we all know no sane person is going to do that. If that hits you in the head, that's it. And softball falling at 120 mph is even worse, right?

[00:42:17]So, these are terminal velocities that science has proven that they will fall.

[00:42:21]Needless to say, if there is any sizable hail tomorrow, be very, very careful.

[00:42:25]Um, could some ping pongs occur? It's possible, >> right? So, we're talking about softball, which is 4 in size hail, baseball, which is 2.75 close to three. Ping pongs are more 1.5. So, that again, we're not >> Maybe some twos are not, >> right? So, don't if you have a Beretta, keep it keep it covered tomorrow if if >> horrible story. And Eddie, if you're out there watching, I'm sorry I just gave up our story. It was a horrible experience for both of us. I know I didn't contribute to repairing your car even though I was chasing with you, but I was a broke college student at the time. So, please forgive me.

[00:42:56]>> Oh, >> I didn't have any money. I was a broke college kid.

[00:42:59]>> I know, but poor Eddie.

[00:43:00]>> Poor Eddie. He's not going to drive the Beretta.

[00:43:03]>> So, uh, from here, that's our story of the night. And we want also go on to questions. It is 900 pm on the dot right now. Let's go to questions. We'll give you about 5 10 minutes for Q&A here. Um, for everybody out there, if you enjoy our videos, please share it. Um, you get a little bit of Rick Ducan and and my personality at times in here. A lot of weather nerd stuff, which we hope you guys enjoy and can help you plan. And please share the video because even after the video ends, you can just use that little timeline down the bottom and go exactly where you want. In fact, you can stop the radar over your town and look at the exact time. So, let's open it up to Q&A here. Now, >> Stephanie says her first car was a 1988 Beretta.

[00:43:39]>> YES, >> love that guy. It didn't get damaged with hail.

[00:43:43]>> No. Yeah. So, please.

[00:43:44]>> Um, how's this? Oh, Krispy. Krispy coming in early here. Um, Krispy is asking about STPs. So, what is an STP?

[00:43:54]So, we showed you the supercell composits. STP is what's called the significant tornado parameter. Do I buy uh STPs on a scenario like this? And and what are they? So, I'm going to start you off. I showed you the supercell composits. I'm just going to look at the late data here because quite frankly, we're in a video and why not look. Um, the super the SIG tour probabilities are a little bit higher in the morning than they are in the afternoon, but if you're asking me could a significant tornado occur in this scenario, um, I would say it's more likely to get a EF0 EF1. But if you're asking me, is it impossible to get an EF2 in this scenario? It's not impossible, >> right? I do I do feel like the tornado possible tag will be a useful one.

[00:44:45]>> Yes, >> tomorrow in many instances. Hopefully, we don't have to go over that, but the possibility to go either way is certainly there. Uh Jen is asking, "Do you think Poli will have strong winds?"

[00:44:55]>> So, Jen, I wish I could give specific forecasts for every single address and every single town. Um that's just not the way it is. the probability is high and that's one of you know the difficulties that we communicate in is probability. So in Poli I believe it's a 30% chance that you could see damaging winds within a point. So I would I would act as if the potential is there but I can't tell you if exactly in that town you will see damaging winds but do prepare for warnings tomorrow with damaging winds being the main threat for you.

[00:45:25]>> And where was that location just so I don't repeat >> that was I want to say Poli P.

[00:45:31]>> Okay. Um, so that I'm going to move to the other side of the river, Lebanon Junction. Lebanon Junction in southern Bullet County. If you're to see severe, what time would that be? So, Lebanon Junction, the morning wave is probably going to stay to your north. So, I would watch mid to late afternoon in Lebanon and Junction. Um, I just think that your chance is going to be a little better.

[00:45:47]Damaging winds, hail would be the primary threat. An instance of large hail is not impossible, but if it fires over you, it would take a little bit of time to get the larger hail. And uh you know if you're asking me is a tornado possible in Lebanon and Junction I would tell you it's it it is possible. So unfortunately um these are storms that we're gonna have to watch for tomorrow.

[00:46:06]So we've covered Polioli, we've covered Lebanon and Junction. Rick, next one's to you.

[00:46:10]>> Uh I I I'm getting a lot of requests for Can we go through future radar just one more time?

[00:46:13]>> Absolutely. And that you know one of the things we love about this by the way if you ever wonder um Rick is monitoring um the our channel and our video so that >> I'm just playing games. I'm just playing games.

[00:46:25]>> Is that Candy Crush >> Solitude? you know, >> so if you see here, what I have is our weather system.

[00:46:30]>> So, um, because I have the weather system, and you're like, Mark, a weather system can function on a laptop.

[00:46:36]Actually, it cannot. Our weather systems are so huge. So, these are server level computers in our back office, in case anybody's a a nerd. They're ZG4s. Um, Z84s are powerhouse computers. The only reason I know is because I process Astro data and it requires these monster computers. A Z84 is a big boy. All I know is there's air conditioning back there. So that's how I found out.

[00:46:58]>> So the Z8 G4s, we have about 10 to 15 between our Z8 G4s. We have some Z8 back there as well.

[00:47:05]>> They're they require they generate so much heat >> that we have an air conditioning that blows only on those computers alone. And Rick then benefits when he's back in the office. So this is remote desktop. We are able to remote into our computers.

[00:47:20]And you're asking then why does that matter? because that means I can move our expensive weather computer and control it from right here. And you asked to see future radar and I can very easily do that. So Rick, here we go.

[00:47:31]People want to see this again midm morning wave north of the river we would need to watch.

[00:47:36]>> Right. Again, this is a two wave scenario. So it's going to be kind of a turbulent Tuesday. Wave one may while it may not be in that exact position, you kind of get a better idea uh of how these storms will be behaving and they will be probably starting to fall apart.

[00:47:52]But there's still going to be warnings possible on wave number one. Here we are at 9 to 11 and storms moving through southern Indiana getting very close to Louisville right around midday. Now, is that line a little more filled in or is it falling apart? I do believe it will be falling apart, but what it does is leaves behind this invisible boundary, invisible to the eye, and then that will reflare during the afternoon. Can I say exactly where do these storms go up? Is it just north of Louisville? Is it on Louisville? Is it south of Louisville? I would lean more towards Louisville south. But listen, anything's fair game right now because exactly where that boundary lies down until it does that, we just simply can't tell the exact location. But we will tomorrow. the storms go up and you can see we get numerous storms going through Kentucky and this is prime time you're hitting the roads five six seven o'clock >> the data showing mid to late afternoon I know people are going to say well that's exactly at five let me just say give it a couple of hour window we cannot say exactly when they're going to fire but mid late afternoon second what I'm going to tell you is near 64 maybe 30 miles north and maybe 30 miles south but in this general area is where we anticipate the refire Y >> after the refire occurs, everything will move south and it should generate numerous severe. Is it widespread?

[00:49:13]>> Numerous to maybe widespread. I think that those words could both be used and it's gone by 8:00 p.m. So moves into the area um in the morning. So you as you mentioned, you know, 8 to 8, it's not going to be severe the whole time, but it's possible get we get a watch in the morning, get a pause, and get another one in the afternoon. That's absolutely possible.

[00:49:31]>> Absolutely. So, somebody um I'm going to answer this one because it's been asked several times by Karen. Is there a change in wind direction with these storms tomorrow? And that is why there's a 5% tornado risk. Um obviously, um Karen gets a gold star because she clearly watches our video. Yes, there is a little wind direction change. Is it a large amount? No. But there is some wind directional change. And what we have found in the Ohio Valley is if there's a wind direction change, it can tornado.

[00:49:58]Interesting point to this though.

[00:49:59]Research has shown that when you have the cloud base under about a kilometer or about a thousand feet or less, the likelihood of a tornado goes up. Yeah.

[00:50:09]>> Um so tomorrow the cloud base is around 3 to 4,000 ft. So with a slightly higher cloud base, it means that even if you had a rotation, it's got to go further to get down to the ground. So that higher cloud base tomorrow would help maybe keep some of that rotational loft.

[00:50:25]So, just mentioning that because I know that um the questions that we get are good. We've obviously got an educated community and then um why not touch on some of those things. Rick, what next is to you?

[00:50:36]>> Let's see. Um you know, getting a lot of people just kind of asking their specific town. For example, Landon is asking about what about Mount Washington?

[00:50:43]>> Okay.

[00:50:44]>> Um Mount Washington, you get that morning wave falling apart, which may which may get to you. I I would say it's going to be a tough call, but the afternoon wave to hit you is probably a little more likely. Um, and that's the one that damaging winds is going to be the primary threat. So, Mount Washington, don't be shocked if you get strong to severe storms. And then around midafternoon is when they develop and then you're going to be very close to the development phase where these storms are born and then they mature and then they go away. So, I do believe that um the afternoon I would watch more carefully, but you can't sleep on the morning either, unfortunately.

[00:51:21]>> Next question here. Michelle Ziggler says, "I'm driving from Gat to from Gatlinburg to me county tomorrow. What time would be best?" Uh my opinion is I would be home by 1. Um I think that you just it's easier that way. My opinion is um this is probably going to be a little bit later on the reflare, but because we can't pin the exact hour, I always like to give a two-hour pad. Yeah, >> I think three is probably going to be the earliest two or three. If you're getting home at 1, you're going to give yourself a pad so you can avoid that stuff because quite frankly, who wants to drive through that?

[00:51:54]>> And yeah, who knows about traffic either? So, >> that's a great question here. Um do you see this question right here, Rick?

[00:52:02]Yeah.

[00:52:03]>> You see that individual's name?

[00:52:04]>> I do.

[00:52:05]>> What's What's the individual's name?

[00:52:08]>> Starts with L and rhymes with Ev.

[00:52:11]>> You got it right this time.

[00:52:14]>> This is a good question. We're doing all right.

[00:52:16]>> Will anybody miss out on this? We don't think everybody's going to see severe.

[00:52:19]And I think it's a great point.

[00:52:21]>> You know, look, even if you have a 50% chance of severe, not everybody's going to see severe weather. And let's just say Louisville goes under a warning tomorrow. Not everybody in Louisville is going to get severe weather. Part of Louisville went under a severe weather um warning on Saturday. It lights up the whole county with a warning and most of the county didn't get severe weather.

[00:52:41]So, it's worth noting. Um Levi, it's a great question with a great answer that the answer is no. Not everybody's going to see severe even if you get a warning.

[00:52:49]>> Right. And that's I feel like a lot of people don't really understand that warnings are issued, polygons are drawn, and if they only include a part of let's say we'll just use Jefferson County, Kentucky as an example. Let's say it includes PRP Shively, you know, and and then you're in the Clifton area and you get that alert. It highlights the whole county. So unfortunately, >> yeah, we should our tech our tech should be better now, but >> it's something that, you know, hopefully in the future we can have now, you know, with your cell phone, you know, geo fencing and be able to be an exact GPS location.

[00:53:21]>> Well, here's the problem with this though. Um, you and I have talked through this. Let's say we could GPS it and let's say you only get the warning and only the sirens if you're in the polygon. Okay, >> so now let's use Saturday as an example.

[00:53:34]It only includes like around PRP. Mhm.

[00:53:37]>> Now, what happens if you're in the West End? You may hear those sirens still.

[00:53:40]>> Yeah.

[00:53:41]>> So, now you hear the sirens, but you're not under a warning >> and then you're wondering why.

[00:53:46]>> This is the problem. If we do start to go with the geo fencing, there is scenarios where people may get confused because their phone may not alert, but then they may look on TV and see their county is under a warning or they may hear the sirens going off. Unless we geoence everything, warnings, sirens, phone, everything, I don't I think we're gonna end up with more confusion than helping. That's just my two cents. I know that's a weird one, right?

[00:54:15]>> Yeah. And you have to because you're I feel like you're right. You're all in or you're not.

[00:54:18]>> Unless you can get those sirens to only aim in one direction, right? I mean, because that but I feel like that this and just so you know, sirens are not designed for inside.

[00:54:28]>> But we know people use them that way.

[00:54:29]>> I know. But do um I I feel like that sound I mean for good reason, but that sound horrific.

[00:54:35]>> It's horrific.

[00:54:36]>> Even when I hear the the test, it weirds me out, right? And >> even though I know it means nothing and it's a test, I'm weirded out.

[00:54:41]>> Yeah, they did a very good job. Whoever made that.

[00:54:43]>> It's the most horrible sound ever.

[00:54:44]>> It's they did a great job creating the worst sound ever. So >> So no, that's almost as bad as the I'm gonna see if Rick knows what movie this is.

[00:54:54]>> What?

[00:54:55]>> I you know that's the most annoying sound ever. Uh, oh my gosh.

[00:55:00]>> I'm not telling you the answer to this.

[00:55:01]>> No, you're gonna do this to me.

[00:55:02]>> I'm gonna let people answer it on the side here.

[00:55:04]>> Help me out.

[00:55:05]>> Does anybody know what that sound I just made? It's from a movie. It's a funny movie. Does anybody know where that sound comes from? What movie?

[00:55:13]>> It's Dumb and Dumber.

[00:55:15]>> No.

[00:55:15]>> I don't know. Let's see what other people say.

[00:55:17]>> Help me out here, people.

[00:55:19]>> I'm going to give you a hint.

[00:55:22]The sound was made by somebody whose initials were LC.

[00:55:34]>> That was Lloyd. Do you know what his name? What his last name?

[00:55:36]>> I don't know his last name.

[00:55:37]>> Lloyd Christmas.

[00:55:38]>> Lloyd. I didn't know his Christmas.

[00:55:40]>> So everybody, look at how many people knew what that was. Somebody guessed Home Alone. Somebody said the >> Flintston. Not the Flintstonones.

[00:55:47]>> Okay, so on to more questions here.

[00:55:49]We're going to do uh up until 9:15 and then we'll end the video. Um I am still nursing my eye back to health. Um it's actually improved significantly. I had a horrid infection in my eye a couple weeks ago and um may go try to go back to contacts tomorrow if my eyes would allow. So Rick, this one coming in from Teresa. She says, "I don't let my horses out when storms are coming." I love this question. Good.

[00:56:11]>> While I'm not um home leaving in the morning at 4 a.m., won't return until 3.

[00:56:16]Should I leave them um in the trees to not worry about lightning and wind? So, number one, we'd need to know your location, but let's just let's let's hypothetically. Yeah, >> if you're in Indiana side, the morning could see some severe.

[00:56:31]>> If you're on our Kentucky side, I would say the more likely is going to be in the afternoon, especially if you're near and south of the western and bluegrass.

[00:56:38]But if you're somewhere, you know, between the western and bluegrass and and north, it is possible. And with your horses, my two cents, I wouldn't play with their life. I wouldn't take the risk. That's just my two cents.

[00:56:50]>> So, what I'm kind of gathering here is that, you know, we have we have an area of higher confidence and then middle confidence. There's the lower confidence is that in between is kind of the meat of the sandwich where we're not quite sure exactly where those storms fire.

[00:57:03]Um, we've narrowed it down to, you know, around I 64.

[00:57:06]>> Yeah. Within a 30 mile radius. So again, but I know if you, you know, 30 miles may sound like, you know, nothing too significant, but it can be for you. So we're, you know, that there's that zone that there's still a little bit of question. And so make sure you allow when when you're making plans and trying to, you know, use the decision-m process. Make sure you remember that.

[00:57:28]>> So we're closing in on 9:15. We'll go down to three last questions. I'm going to take the first one here. Uh, I'm going to take Connor's because Connor's asked several time. So Connor is saying advanced track didn't show much of a line tomorrow afternoon and was very disorganized. Are you expecting a more pronounced line that advanced track is showing? So Connor, we show you weather data because well we're in the business.

[00:57:47]Um do I think that this is going to be a broken line or a hard line? I'm going to tell you it's going to be a broken line and I'm going to tell you why. The temperature is about a mile above the ground. We call it 850 millibars. Uh is 21 Celsius. Um that is extremely warm.

[00:58:03]To break that cap completely into a full solid line would require elite level forcing. We have forcing. It is not elite level tomorrow. So this should still be broken and there should be cellular structure within there. Hence the reason we believe that large hail and or some instances of large hail and a couple of tornadoes would not be out of the realm of possibility. But wonderful question from Connor there.

[00:58:26]Two more questions, Mr. Duca. All right, we've got Ashley Neville uh talking about Hardinsburg, Indiana in the morning.

[00:58:34]>> Um so yeah, you could you could see warnings in the morning and then chances are you probably won't see many if any during the afternoon because that boundary is going to slide south. So for you, I would be a little more aware during the morning and then once those storms fire, what you can do is actually take out our app and see where those storms have gone up in the afternoon and when you see them south, you know that, okay, I'm in the safe pocket now.

[00:58:58]>> I like that. Um, last question here and this is a great one coming from one of our YouTubers, me county fair tomorrow.

[00:59:04]Me County Fair. So, let me end this video on this one. So, me county fair.

[00:59:08]First off, the morning should be okay. I think that you it's maybe a little stretch to get those to you. Not impossible, but I would put it at a lower probability. I would watch for you in the 2 three around five o'clock time frame.

[00:59:23]I think that if you're going to fire storms would be in that time frame. So if you're going to the me county fair tomorrow, let's say post 700 p.m. I think that you're in the three in the clear. So number one, thank you everybody for joining us in on the live tonight. Um a lot of people in here.

[00:59:38]Obviously there's a lot of interest.

[00:59:40]Number two, if you don't follow Rick Duca, please do in case we do a live tomorrow. Also, Jude Redfield and Bryce Jones. It's very likely they'll do a video tomorrow morning. Um, I'll be on WDRB News at 10. Rick will be on on WDRB News at 11 tonight. If you don't follow me, remember it's Mark Weinberg, Mark with a C right there. Um, and that way you can get alerts when I go live. And lastly, if you guys do appreciate the videos, please always like and share the videos. Um, sharing the video. Liking the video is really important. and throw some hearts across the screen, some thumbs up if you enjoy us in this space.

[01:00:13]Um, we appreciate that. And by sharing it, you let other people know what we're doing and they can jump in live. So, I'm just going to check real quickly. That is a lot of thumbs up um and hearts flying across the screen. So, we appreciate you guys joining us tonight.

[01:00:27]Remember, I'll be on at 10. Rick will be on at 11:00. Important data comes in in the next 45 minutes. We hope this can allow us to even fine-tune more. Morning wave, afternoon wave, where it fires, what are the threats. So, thanks for joining us. I'll see you on WDRB News at 10.