90% Allocation to Stocks? Or Bonds, Dividends, Growth, Google, BRK?

Ajouté : 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Good day fellow investors. Let's discuss some of your great comments from 90% allocation to equities, bonds. Now that nobody likes bonds, we'll discuss bonds, dividends, growth, fed, selling Google, holding or selling Birkshshire, buying more or going to cash. Let's start immediately with the first comment where a Wall Street Journal suggests now after the market has done a 10x 11x over the last 15 years now is the time to go 90% into equities. By the way, my name is Vener. I want to give you the value investing perspective on things not just crazy prices go here or there. We do fundamental investing. Why? because this is the last 100 years of the market.

[00:00:48]Yes, markets go up 1920s, 1960s, 1990s, 2010s, 20s, but people forget that markets also go down for a few decades, 60% free times in real terms. And value investing will allow you to do well no matter what happens. Why is that so important? Here we go discussing the situation on 90% equity exposure. The current dividend yield of the S&P 500 is 1.05. A few years ago, 10 years ago, it was 2%. Let's do some math. Very simple.

[00:01:23]The current 1% that means that the points that you'd get if you invest in the S&P 500 is 78. The companies don't pay dividends because it's all growth, right? But the dividend yield was 2% 10 years ago at a much lower S&P 500. So, back then it was 40. That means that dividends have grown at 6.4% per year over the last 10 years. Now, if you have a million, you put it in the S&P 500, you get 10,600 dividends. Okay?

[00:01:57]Let's compound that at 6%, no recessions, money printing, everything.

[00:02:02]In 20 years, you have 40,000 per year.

[00:02:06]With inflation, those 40,000 49,000 practically nothing. you will lose purchasing power with stocks too. On the contrary, if we look at the US 5-year Treasury, now it's 5%. 5% versus 1% that might get to 4% 20 years down the road or a 5% bond where you get 5% immediately and then you can reinvest.

[00:02:30]Bonds are starting to get attractive in this environment. But stocks will always go up. I already shown you that's not the story. But this is perhaps more important. When Wall Street, the journal start to saying equity is best. That's peak bubble strategies, comments, and articles. But then again, yes, then everything you say is good. We appreciate your perspective. But if you compare yourself to the NASDAQ, okay, I beat the S&P 500, not the NASDAQ, that's for sure. Okay, but how did I beat the NASDAQ here? How did I beat others? I wasn't alive here but I destroyed it back there. And then we have also discussed the benchmarks. You have to understand that US now was Japan in ' 89. That story didn't end well. So what I want to do not compare myself to benchmarks. A benchmark is a benchmark.

[00:03:26]I cannot predict what it will do. But I want to do well no matter what happens with the markets. I want to invest compound wealth despite the market cycles. And that's where you'll beat whatever the benchmark is. And then again, agree with my position, but the Fed will simply print money. Stocks will go up and we are protected no matter what. In the meantime, we will enjoy the market going up 9% over the last few days, 9% since the start of the year.

[00:03:56]Despite the wars, this or that, we'll go another 10% just on mechanics of 411k buying. Why would we stay away from the S&P 500 over the NASDAQ for your SW discussions of risk? And I think that's a great comment, but we have to understand that over the last 15 years, the Fed has increased the balance sheet eight times. The S&P 500 is 10 times up.

[00:04:20]And each crisis, interest rates have gone lower and lower up till a few years ago. And now for the first time the low will not be a negative but the low seems to hit here and interest rates can't go lower. One day you will say if they can just print money why am I working always for the same money. My purchasing power is deteriorating all the time. What's going on? And when you understand that you will require higher interest rates.

[00:04:53]The higher interest rates put huge burdens on the debt. You had stagflation. The Fed cannot print more money because it just fuels more inflation. All the monetary policy tools go down the drain. And that is where this long-term debt cycle reverts, readjusts to new numbers, and that's something that will happen because this is unsustainable. I wish I could tell you when it will happen, but the risk of playing it is too big because you go for total destruction. Is this an option? I don't know because if there is inflation this is again no good but I can guarantee you that this deficits are fueling the market and it is not sustainable. We are getting close. Who knows? So my answer there is the Fed has already done that the last 15 years. The question is can it do it again? We will see interest rates the market has start working against the powers of the monetary printing machine. Great question here. Google was undervalued.

[00:06:02]Should we sell or not? And that is the million-doll question predicting the market. Google is up significantly. We discussed other companies like Samsung when it was very cheap. We discussed Intel finally at 80% of book value. the question now on whether to sell.

[00:06:21]Unfortunately, I didn't own those things. I'm thinking about setting up a YouTube portfolio so that when I see, okay, very good risk and rewards, I can buy and then I can be smart about it.

[00:06:32]But now you made your money. When you made your money, think about, do I need a new kitchen? Does my spouse want something? Do I need a new car?

[00:06:41]Sometimes you just look, okay, you need to use the money for life. And that's also a reason. Do I have something better? Am I keeping on betting? If it reverts, I'm okay. Google is Google. We thought it will be disrupted by AI. It is getting even stronger. So that's very interesting. I wish I knew the answer.

[00:07:01]Similarly, Birkshshire, great question here. Should we stick to Birkshshire despite the likely mids singledigit long-term returns or switch to something higher SAP 500 20% per year? That's the trillion dollar question predicting where the market will go. But for me, investing is about fundamentals.

[00:07:24]Birkshshire 7% long-term compounding return on invested capital. Bum bum bum.

[00:07:29]All good. S&P 500 1% dividend 1 2% growth crazy businesses coming in the passive mindless robot getting destroyed. So somebody doing 7 five 7% for the next 10 15 years would be very happy because as I said this party cannot go on forever. When you start thinking oh I should buy the index is better than birkshare things like that then you're starting to speculate and we all know how that ends. The key answer here is are you investing for fundamentals or speculating only you know that question. Speaking of cash, what's the alternative versus buying?

[00:08:10]Well, Berkshire had 100 billion 10 years ago. Now they have almost 400 billion and 30% of their balance sheet is there.

[00:08:19]They are not buying anything. If they had put it in the NASDAQ, the 200 billion would be another trillion to add to Birkshshire's market capitalization.

[00:08:28]The stock would now be at 1,000 the B class. But when it comes to investing, my key question is, will you be here?

[00:08:38]Will these businesses be here 20 years down the road, 50 years down the road?

[00:08:43]Birkshshire very likely. All the others are just playing the shortterm game. The question is, what do you want to play?

[00:08:52]Check how I play it in my research platform link in description below.

[00:08:55]Thanks for watching. and I'll see you in the next video.