THE NEXT 28 DAYS CAN MAKE "AVERAGE JOES" MILLIONS

Ajouté : 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]It's pretty crazy that nobody is prepared for what the stock market is about to do. And what exactly is that?

[00:00:05]It all comes down to these three things right here. What is the chance the market's going to go up? What is the chance the market's going to crash? And what is the chance that the market just really does nothing and goes sideways?

[00:00:15]That is what we're going to cover in this video. Because one of these three outcomes is almost guaranteed to happen right now. And if you play your cards just right and you allocate your portfolio just right, you could capitalize on it and genuinely make a lot of money in the coming months. Let's dive in. Okay, so from the top, it doesn't take a genius to know that the stock market just went up over 30% in two months since the I ran lows right here. And what this is doing to everybody is making them really get inside their own heads like, can it really keep going higher? Does it have to crash? Can it go sideways from here?

[00:00:47]What is the most likely outcome? That is what this whole video is about. So, let's go dive into the first case, which is the bullish case for the stock market, and build a thesis on do we think that's actually the most likely outcome. Let's go. Okay, so looking at the needle mover stuff that could truly push this market higher. Let's take a look right here at the earnings per share growth for the S&P 500. S&P 500 earnings growth is very, very, very strong right now. We just got Q1 of 2026 earnings and they came in at 28% year-over-year growth, which is super super good. The average is roughly 10% per year. And that again is why the S&P averages about 10% per year in the long term because of what the earnings per share does. So when this number is way higher than normal, we should expect the stock market to go up a lot more than normal too, right? Because the profits are driving the market higher. But just by looking at that, it's like ah, you know, the growth is really good, but do we actually think it's going to sustain in the quarters coming ahead? Take a look at the chart. Q2 of 2026, the estimation is about 20% year-over-year.

[00:01:50]Q3 is about 23. Q4 is about 21ish. So when you average all of that together for 2026, the calendar year 2026 earnings per share growth is about 21% that we should be expecting, which is very, very, very strong. way more than normal. So, people just look at the charts and say, "Oh my god, the market's a bubble. It went up way too much." But you shouldn't be looking at the stock price and saying it's a bubble. You should be looking at what the actual profits did and seeing if it's a bubble based on that. Looking at how strong the profit growth is right now, the market is not a bubble. So, when you have this big needle mover right here of profit growth really, really strong, that checks the box for bullishness. And then when you have the federal funds interest rates right now at a range of 3.5 to 3.75, that checks another bullish box right there because this range right here, despite what you see online, this range is historically low. I know it doesn't seem like it, but ask anybody that was alive in 1980. Interest rates were almost 20% in 1980. So right now, we're definitely below the average for interest rates, which is great. It's cheaper to go buy a car, cheaper to go buy a house, cheaper to go borrow money, cheaper for businesses to go invest back in their business by borrowing money, right? So interest rates are okay right now. Now the next one, the unemployment rate, how is the economy doing overall?

[00:03:09]The unemployment rate right now is at 4.3%. That is healthy. That is good.

[00:03:13]That is normal. That is what we want to see. All of this shows strength out there in the economy right now. And then if we go look at one more thing, the actual gross domestic product of the United States is 2% year-over-year.

[00:03:26]Think of this as kind of like the total revenue for the United States. It's really good. 2% is good. Of course, we want to see it a little bit higher, but hey, the US is growing right now.

[00:03:35]There's a lot of volatility happening in the world, and we're still growing the gross domestic product of the US at about 2% year-over-year. So, the economy is doing okay. Interest rates are manageable. Earnings are very, very strong. And the overall valuation level for the S&P 500 is only a little bit higher than normal. So when you have that whole backdrop right there and really the only negative is that valuations are just a little bit hot.

[00:04:00]It's like hey because a profit growth is so strong it justifies that higher valuation level. So the bullish thesis basically ends with this. If the growth holds and earnings stays strong, the rally can keep going up and to the right in a bumpy way, which it's very very possible for that to happen. Okay, now going to this second potential outcome right here, which is the market takes a breather, right? So, we all know the market just ran up a lot. Earnings per share growth is strong. The Ford P ratio is about 21, which is a little bit expensive, but not a bubble, just a little bit hot. And the markets just look a little bit elevated right now. So what I want to focus on is this chart right here going from 2021 until right now and then 6 months and 12 months from right now. Understand this chart. We all know that the market ran up quite a bit going into 2022. Interest rates then went up because COVID happened.

[00:04:51]Inflation got out of control. Great market fell. So now what's happening is the market made a very very strong rebound to right now. But the thing that not many people really understand is that the earnings per share trend which is this dotted line right here. we are now a little bit disconnected on the high side of that. When the market runs up more than when the actual profits go up, the market is a little bit overvalued. So while the market doesn't have to be a bubble, it might just be a little bit overvalued. The market goes sideways for the next 6 to 12 months, giving time for the profits to catch up.

[00:05:25]And when that happens, the market just really just goes sideways and then it's basically at fair value right here. So when you're seeing this slightly elevated price earnings ratio level right now, it's because the price of the actual index went up more than the earnings. Earnings went up this much, price went up this much, way more steeper, and that's why the PE ratio is a higher number. And just to put this in English, like we'll talk about this business right here of Mr. Pen. If you go buy this pen right now for $100 and it throws off $10 per year in profit, that would be a price range ratio level of 10. you essentially get your initial investment back in 10 years, right? But if you buy it for $100 and it only throws off $5 per year in profit, that would be a price earnings ratio level of 20, meaning you get your initial investment back in 20 years. So, as the price earnings ratio level gets higher, you're basically paying more for the same amount of profits, meaning you're just getting not as good of a deal. But when you have the EPS growth really really strong, the market is willing to pay a little bit more for that because hey, the profits are going to accelerate and go up faster. So it makes it a little bit more justified. But you know, after the market just made a really really big rally, there is a case to be made that we take a breather from here.

[00:06:38]We go sideways. We don't necessarily have to crash. We just simply give time for the profits to go up and to the right and just simply catch up. And guess what? If that happens, it's 100% healthy. There's going to be a lot of people that say, "Oh my god, the market is not moving anymore. I'm not making 20% a day in Micron stock or whatever's been happening." It's like, look, after a huge run, a pause would be healthy.

[00:06:59]That is okay. It's very, very possible to happen. Now, let's go down to outcome number three, which this is the outcome that honestly most people aren't prepared for. And you know, I always want to give you guys all the data in a non-biased way. The bullish case, the bearish case, and then what's likely to happen from there because we have to understand this stuff to be logical investors. We all are here to make money. We're not here to just go invest in something and just close our eyes to all the bad stuff. Like, we have to factor everything in. So, outcome three, the market crashes. What could cause this? Well, the forward price rings ratio level, as you know, is a little bit high. The 5-year average for the P ratio is about 19.9 and the 10-year average is about 18.9. And this is that right here on a chart. So you could see that the 10-year average were a fair amount above it. Just call it about 10 to 15% above the average for the actual price earnings ratio level. And all of that is really being justified right now by earnings per share growth being very very strong. But if earnings per share growth happens to slow, this elevated valuation level is basically largely supported because EPS growth is very very strong. So if it does slow, the market's going to be like, uh-uh, there's no way this is justified anymore. And the price earnings ratio level is going to fall potentially to a level of 15. Going from 20 to 15, we'll just call that a 25% correction in the stock market. It's very, very, very possible for that to happen. So right now valuations are a little bit expensive and if the growth slows it's going to make it look even more expensive. Now the way the market crashes usually work is it's not just like the market just goes down because it feels like going down. Even if valuations are a little bit high, it doesn't always mean like oh my god the market's just guaranteed to crash because valuations are just hot. There's usually some sort of negative catalyst that is going to happen at a time that valuations are a little bit high to then bring the stock market down. Because once the negative catalyst happens at a time that the market's hot, it's just like there's just so many negative things to talk about that aren't priced into the stock market that then get priced in, meaning the stocks fall, right? Because when you have these elevated valuation levels right now, like a 21 for a PE ratio, there's a lot of good stuff priced into the market. So the difference between a lot of good stuff priced in and a lot of bad stuff priced in right now in the market, it's very, very wide. So if something truly negative does happen, the market could fall a lot. Hopefully I explained that in a way that makes sense. There's just a big diff distance right now between the good stuff and the bad stuff and where the market's actually at. So it comes back to AI and what could actually be a big negative catalyst to slow the economy down and bring the stock market down with it. Let me break down how this actually works. So we all know what Nvidia is, right? They design the best chips in the world. They're the biggest company in the world. Great. But Nvidia is basically the company that is carrying the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ on its back right now. It's a huge percent of each indicy right there.

[00:09:53]Now, Nvidia sells chips to a bunch of companies, right? Some of these companies don't necessarily have the money to actually buy the chips. Let's take a look at a company like Coreweave, for example. Coreweave is a company where they basically just go buy a bunch of land, go build a data center, go buy a bunch of Nvidia chips, plug them all in, and then go to a company and say, "Hey, do you want to go rent some cloud compute from us? Here we go. We're ready to go." That's basically the business model of Corewave. So what happens is Nvidia says, "Hey Cororeweave, we're going to go invest in your business."

[00:10:23]Nvidia sends $10 billion from Nvidia's bank account to Cororee's bank account.

[00:10:27]Then Cororeweave says, "Hey, great Nvidia. Thanks for doing that investment. Now that we have $10 billion, we want to go buy $10 billion worth of your chips right now." And that's kind of like what's been happening back and forth, back and forth with many companies that Nvidia has their hands in the pot with. But what happens if that financing happens to slow down? Well, it's very very possible Nvidia could collapse, the AI sector could collapse, AMD could collapse, TSM, a lot of these companies tied to AI, the microns, like there's a lot of stuff really tied to this that matter a lot.

[00:10:58]So, you know, it really all just comes down to getting the money to buy the chips is what it's really at. So, another thing that could help expedite this process of financing going down the tubes is that companies aren't getting an ROI on the spending that they're doing on AI data centers. like a company like Meta right now. Everybody knows that a company like Meta is spending so much on capital expenditures to go build data centers to go use these models to make their business more efficient. But if they're not actually getting a true ROI on that spending, Meta is eventually going to say like, look, AI is good, but it's not good enough. Like, we're going to have to slow down how much money we're spending because we're just not seeing the ROI. So if that happens then what's going to happen is earnings per share growth is going to slow because Nvidia's growth is going to slow AMD's growth is going to slow Micron's growth is going to slow the hyperscaler companies like the Metas the Google's the Amazons the Teslas the whatevers those companies spending all this money on AI are expecting to get an ROI and then are not going to get an ROI and then all of that just really brings earnings per share growth down. I know that was kind of like a handful right there, but that is like probably the biggest threat to the stock market right now of just all these high earnings per share expectations are being priced in.

[00:12:09]And if we get it great, the market could keep going up and to the right. But if we don't get it, the market is going to repric accordingly and do it very very fast to a price rings ratio level in the teens for sure. So, you know, there's a lot of good stuff priced in right now.

[00:12:23]If it continues, great. But if it doesn't, if some bad stuff actually gets priced in, the market's going to fall from there. Okay, so let's go into what is the most likely outcome from all of this. We outlined the bull case, the bare case, the neutral case. Let's figure out what the most likely outcome is. And before you go click off the video, I need to talk to you about what this actually means and what we could do going forward from here for how to allocate our portfolios. Okay, so the most likely outcome is going to be that the market goes sideways in my opinion.

[00:12:52]What does that mean and what does that actually look like? Okay, just like we looked at the chart right here on section two, we saw that the S&P 500 went up above the earnings per share growth line right here. What the market is likely to do is not have explosive returns like it did in the last few years. The market is likely to take a breather and go sideways for some time, giving time for earnings per share to catch up. And when earnings per share catches up, the price earnings ratio level is going to fall because the price is going sideways and the earnings are going up, which then makes the price earnings ratio level more fair. So you're getting more bang for your buck right here versus if you invest up here simply because you're investing above the earnings per share growth line. So that is the most likely scenario for the stock market. Okay, so taking a look at my $ 1.5 million account, you know, this account has been growing a lot in the last few months, and a lot of that is earnings driven. We just talked about how the profits are going up a lot, and that justifies the market to go up a lot, but the market just went up a little bit more than expected. So, this is the current value of my account. I just refreshed it. And what you're likely to see here on my YouTube videos going forward is you're likely to see this $ 1.5 million account pull back a little bit. I'm expecting it to fall to $1.4 $4 million before we go to the $2 million level in the coming years simply because valuations are a little bit hot right now. So, how am I allocating this portfolio right now to capitalize? How am I allocating to ensure that if the market crashes, I'm going to be fine.

[00:14:20]But also, if the market keeps going up, I'm also going to be fine, too. Let's take a look at the stock sheet here really, really quick. So, this is for all Discord members, but I'll give you a little briefing of what it is right now.

[00:14:29]So, basically, these are all the companies that I break down in deep detail within Discord, and I just kind of plot them right here in a one-stop shop to just break them down. The higher the score, the better it is. And really, anything with a score of 75 or higher is potentially a buy. So, you could obviously see that there's not that many companies with a score of a 75 or higher right now. And it's really all just because valuations aren't that good right now. But the overall backdrop is pretty good. Just valuations are too high. So, you know, in order to get a good investment, we need to get a good company at a good price. There's a lot of good companies on this list, but not a lot at a good price, right? So, some of my favorites right now, they continue to be Nvidia, Meta, the S&P 500, which is VO, the NASDAQ, which is Triple Q, TSM. I do have a bond position in ESG, Microsoft, Robin Hood, Charles Schwab.

[00:15:16]Um, this one is down a little bit, which is now definitely undervalued at 74% of intrinsic value. Amazon, Berkshire Hathway, SoFi, Bank of America, Celsius, Capital 1, Morgan, Stanley. I mean, we could go through the list. There's a lot of good companies in this category right here that I definitely have my eyes on very very closely. But also towards the bottom, which I'm sure that some of you guys own some of these stocks right here, which we did talk about, Coreeave right here. Corewave gets a score of a 64 out of 100 largely because the valuation level is bad, right?

[00:15:45]Valuation's bad. There's a lot of execution risk for that company. It's not worth it to invest in. As for these companies down here, look, they either don't have a moat or they don't have a good valuation level to start. And you have to get a good company at a good price to make it a good investment. All right, guys. That's the video right here. My base case for the stock market going forward is expect volatility in a sideways manner. Don't expect the market to just go send to the Pluto again like I just did. You got to bring your expectations back to reality and just simply allocate your portfolio to win either way. Don't stress. Don't feel like you always have to go do something.

[00:16:18]Don't get nervous in the little volatility that we get. Volatility is just there to capitalize on. If you know what you own and why you own it, you're going to be just fine in the long term.

[00:16:26]All right, so that's the video. If you got value, please go drop a like, hype, subscribe, let me know what you think in the comment section. And with that being said, if you want to learn more about my stock option system, go check out this video right here. It'll help you out a lot of how I use fundamental analysis and basically the Warren Buffett style of stock options to beat the market in the long term, generate cash flow, and simply be fine in market crashes, too.

[00:16:47]All right, guys. A see