RUTO’S WARNING: IS SOMALIA HEADING INTO COLLAPSE? | KENYA vs SOMALIA TENSIONS EXPLODE

Añadido: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Somalia is no longer just facing a security crisis. It is now facing a full-blown regional political storm. And this time, the warning did not come from the West. It came from one of Africa's most powerful presidents. In a stunning and highly controversial interview with France 24, Kenyan President William Rudo delivered one of the harshest public assessments ever made by a sitting African leader against neighboring Somalia under the leadership of Hassan Shik Muhammad. We were moving very well.

[00:00:31]Yes.

[00:00:31]>> Until there was huge disagreement between the government in Mogadeshu and the um the the the the states and unfortunately there was an escalation of war between uh Somali National Army and uh the Jubilant forces which are right at the border in Kenya. In fact, at that point, some of the Somali National Army were actually pushed into Kenya and that complicated the already situation that was existing there. We had to support members of the Somali National Army, fly them, assist them so that uh we could we could pacify and reduce the war. That situation was getting better but unfortunately it took a turn got worse and today we have even a much more complicated situation because the term of the parliament there expired the term of the president I think is expiring and that situation now nobody knows where it's going because we have tried to broker h a an engagement between uh the the the states and uh the government in Somalia, we have not been very successful and we we're still pushing between Ethiopia, ourselves as Kenya and Djibouti as states. We're still trying to find a solution to it. So the border will not open. So the border for the time being is not open. Rud openly declared that Somalia had effectively become a failed state, blaming growing political instability, insecurity, and internal conflict for Kenya's decision to keep its border with Somalia closed. And just like that, the fragile relationship between Nairobi and Moadishu entered dangerous new territory. Welcome back to the Africa News Channel. If you are new here, this is where we break down the biggest geopolitical stories shaping Africa and the world with depth, context, and meaning beyond the headlines. Please like this video, subscribe, and share this report because what is happening between Kenya and Somalia could reshape security, trade, and political alliances across East Africa. The timing of RTO's remarks could not have been more explosive. For months, tensions inside Somalia have been escalating behind the scenes.

[00:03:09]Political disputes between Somalia's federal government and regional states like Jubiland and Puntland have intensified. Disagreements over constitutional reforms, elections, and power sharing arrangements have created deep divisions inside the Somali political system.

[00:03:25]>> Abdul, there's there's been this issue of it started with the governor of Mandera.

[00:03:31]>> Yes.

[00:03:32]um coming out to say you know what there have been some conflict between the jubilant forces and these are forces from Somalia and the Somalia national government forces there've been clashes within Somalia and when the jubilant forces were defeated in the recent bout they crossed over into Kenya >> defeated in quotes >> yeah he didn't quote he didn't say it in quotes he said when they were defeated they crossed over into Kenya and now they've come over into Kenya into an area of Kenya called uh border post one.

[00:04:03]It's a small town. There's a school there and they've actually moved into that school. Uh took a couple of days and then we started hearing other leaders. The senator of Mandera who is the former governor of Mandera spoke.

[00:04:15]We've heard from nominated MP Slea Harun who has spoken. We've heard from other MPs from the area speaking around the issue. We've seen locals talking and saying yes there are foreign forces who are here and that is affecting us. Is that true?

[00:04:33]>> And uh before I say whether it's true or not let me first tackle the complexity of this jubiland issue >> and you know Jubiland is one among the federal states many federal states in Somalia.

[00:04:48]And uh to us Kenyans, Jubiland is not just a region in Somalia.

[00:04:53]Jubaland is our frontline buffer against al-Shabaab.

[00:04:59]And uh we share a very long border with Jubilant that starts from Lamu up to Mandera where we are talking about and any crisis in Jubilant is not a distant crisis from us because this is our buffer zone and anytime there's a crisis in Jubilan it spills over to Kenya. the c the tension and the politics also spills over to Kenya. Now this crisis we are seeing right now is not new. We have had a similar crisis in 2019 when Muhammad Abdulai Farajjo was the president of Somalia. Then what happened was the the jubilant the current jubilant president who is Ahmed Mado ran for elections won.

[00:05:52]Mogadishu rejected the result >> won for elections where >> in Jubaland.

[00:05:59]>> Okay. Not for not for >> presidential elections for Jubaland.

[00:06:03]>> Not for president of Somalia.

[00:06:04]>> No no the state president. No the state president of Jubaland.

[00:06:08]>> Yes.

[00:06:08]>> So he won as the state president for Jubalan. Mogadishu then headed by the federal government headed by Farajjo rejected the result and Farajjo then deployed Somali national army together region.

[00:06:28]Violence erupted and the people of Mandera then lived through the tension.

[00:06:34]Now we are also having a similar script.

[00:06:39]Hassan Sheikh Muhammad who is the current president is also having the same problem with the current Jubalan president who is Ahmed Madobe. Madobe went for election in 2024.

[00:06:53]>> One again Mogadishu rejected it. Now this one is is is framed differently. It is framed as Moadishu is rejecting Madobe's second term saying that it is against it's it's like undermines the federal government's agenda.

[00:07:13]Now in 2019 when Farajjo was the president he wanted to you know solidify his power centralize his power and by undermining the autonomy of Jubalant.

[00:07:30]>> Mhm.

[00:07:31]Kenya then stood with Ahmed Madobe because he's seen as a very credible partner in keeping Kismayo stable and also protecting the people of Mandera from al-Shabaab. So he's an ally >> to say. So Ethiopia then was pro Somalia >> and when the violence erupted they they deployed their troops together to counter the jubilant forces >> and Kenya remembering remember Kenya stood with Madobe.

[00:08:05]>> This has created a political rivalry between Kenya and Ethiopia. Then when it comes to matters of Somali politics, >> now things are a bit different and uh Ethopia is not with Somalia the federal government because they have they are a bit weak. They're having their own internal problems >> and Kenya has signed a trade and security agreement with Hassan Shak Muhammad >> the federal president >> and they cannot also abandon >> Madobe >> Madobe who is seen as a very credible partner in ensuring our borders are safe.

[00:08:47]>> Yeah.

[00:08:48]>> So you know that is a breakdown in in a nutshell of the what jubilant means. M >> so jubilant is very important to us as Kenyans. I think it's very important context that you've given because a lot of people are not aware that even Somalia you know federal >> system and state system >> how long the border is people again are not aware how porous the border is >> people are not aware >> and why this matters what's been happening >> it's not a distant problem whatever happens there >> is not just happening over there >> it affects our politics inside and our security >> instability in jubilan means instability in our border counties.

[00:09:28]>> Yeah.

[00:09:28]>> Yeah.

[00:09:30]>> Now you've spoken to um Jubalan's role in one being a buffer because of proximity.

[00:09:37]>> Yes.

[00:09:37]>> Between US and Somalia >> and in protecting the people of Mandera from Albab. Yes. What does that look like >> in terms of >> in terms of the protection? What kind >> you know what what is happening now?

[00:09:48]There's chaos between there's a there's a problem between the federal state and uh and and Jubalan state which is not happening for the first time.

[00:09:58]>> At the same time, al-Shabaab attacks continue to threaten security across large parts of the country. Kenya, which shares a long and historically sensitive border with Somalia, has increasingly expressed concerns that instability inside Somalia is spilling across the border into Kenyan territory. But what shocked many observers was not simply the concern itself. It was the language President Rudo used publicly.

[00:10:25]During the interview, Rud revealed that Kenya had initially planned to reopen parts of the Kenya Somalia border after years of restrictions. However, according to him, worsening instability and political uncertainty inside Somalia forced Kenya to reverse course. He claimed fighting between Somalia's federal forces and Jubiland regional forces had deteriorated to the point where some Somali national army troops reportedly crossed into Kenyan territory during clashes.

[00:10:53]>> Guys, a very good afternoon. It is on a Tuesday the 12th of August 2025. So since last evening and up to this morning, the Somal National Army has been shelling a border town that belongs to Kenya that is in Mandera. So that border town is you know located at the border of Kenya and Somalia but it's a Kenyan town. It is to the northeast of Kenya and to the south of Somalia. The reason why they're shelling this town is because uh the forces loyal to Jubaland who attacked the Somal national army yesterday and the day before yesterday are ran into Mandera and it happened that the Somal national army chased them into Mandera and the Somal national army are to the side of Somalia but they you firing rockets and shelling you know firing artillery rounds into a camp belonging to the Jubalan administration but uh it you know it is within the Kenyan boundaries. So the Kenya defense forces decided to host the Jubalan forces who are running away from the Somal National Army and to provide you know a safe heaven for these forces who are loyal to to the Jubalan administration but the Somal national army has refused to let them go and it is said that they've been shelling the town and it is even reported that civilians have been killed in this attack. So since last evening, since yesterday around 9:00 p.m. up until this morning, up until today, there are reports of you know uh you know continuous shelling from the Somali side and it is being carried out by the Somal National Army and they are targeting forces loyal to the Jubaland administration. So this is something that has been going on for now a week and it happened that the Jubaland administration has been fighting the central government of Somalia or the federal government of Somalia. Reason being the central government of Somalia wants to divide Jubaland administration and create two regional administration that is G region and also Jubaland administration and they have deployed according to reports about 7,000 Somal national army soldiers to G region and it is this 7,000 soldiers who are trying to be you know to dislodge the jubilant forces from G region and it happened that when that attack happened uh when you know these forces were deployed some of the jubilant forces ran into Kenya and specifically into Mandera town and the rest went you towards Isismayo. So the ones who went into Mandera are the ones who you know right now are coming under heavy kind of attack from the Somal National Army. So this is something that is continuing. I'll keep you know sharing the details as they come in. Cheers.

[00:13:11]>> He also warned that Somalia's political transition had entered a dangerous phase saying the Somali parliament's term had expired and the presidency itself was entering uncertainty.

[00:13:22]And then came the statement now dominating African political discussions. Rud effectively described Somalia as a failed state under Hassan Shik Muhammad's leadership. For Somalia, a country that has spent decades trying to rebuild its image after years of civil war, terrorism, famine, and state collapse. This was not just criticism.

[00:13:43]It was viewed by many Somali as a diplomatic humiliation delivered on an international stage. Now to understand why Rudo would make such statements publicly, we need to go deeper than the headlines. This is not only about border security. This is about the future balance of power in the Horn of Africa.

[00:14:03]Kenya's national security establishment has long feared that instability in Somalia directly threatens Kenyan internal security. Since Kenya's military intervention in Somalia in 2011 under Operation Linda, Kenya has remained deeply involved in Somali security affairs, largely through the African Union stabilization mission.

[00:14:24]Kenya has repeatedly suffered deadly al-Shabaab attacks, including the Westgate Mall attack, the Gerissa University massacre, and multiple crossber terror incidents.

[00:14:35]A group of armed militants from al-shaw kin five Kenya's government officials this morning in Mandera county near the Somali Ethobia border police confirmed it mandera south police commander Juis Najiru stated that five officialists who were trifling from tow were intercepted and abducted by the armed group. that kidnapped officialists were local jies responsible for different words within Mandera account. Kenyan security forces have launched a search and rescue operation and local residences to provide any useful information that could lead to the safe recovery of the affected officials. Mandera is the one of the most vulnerable region in a Kenya to al-Shawab authorities due to the express Somalia which allows the militant group to infiltrate Kenyan al-Shawab easily.

[00:15:29]>> For Nairobi, instability in Somalia is never treated as merely Somalia's internal problem. It is viewed as a direct national security threat to Kenya itself. But there is another layer to this story. Kenya has also become increasingly frustrated with Somalia's internal political divisions. Tensions between Mogadishu and the semi-autonomous Jubiland administration have created serious regional complications. Jubiland sits near Kenya's border and serves as a strategic buffer zone against al-Shabaab infiltration.

[00:16:02]Kenya has historically maintained close relations with Jubiland leaders, particularly Ahmed Muhammad Islam Madobi.

[00:16:09]However, relations between Moadishu and Jubiland deteriorated sharply after disputes over elections, federalism, and constitutional reforms intensified.

[00:16:18]Reports of clashes between federal Somali troops and Jubiland aligned forces near the Kenyan border deeply alarmed Nairobi. Overpowered Jubilant forces were received and hosted in Mandera Town police station with the KDF guarding the facility. It remained unclear whether the wanted minister remained in the rented house or was moved to a military camp. The Somali army has been camping at Bulahawa, a town neighboring Mandera for the past 1 month, planning a raid to capture the fugitive jubilant minister who has been hiding in a hotel in Mandera town since January. Abdi Rashidasan Abdinur, also known as Abdi Rashid Janan, arrived in Mandera town after escaping a Mogadishu prison where he had been held since August 31st, 2019. Many analysts believe Rud's comments were partly aimed at pressuring Hassan Shik Muhammad politically.

[00:17:11]Kenya may be signaling that unless Somalia restores political stability and consensus among federal states, Nairobi will continue tightening security restrictions and distancing itself diplomatically. Some observers even argue Kenya is worried that Somalia's growing political fragmentation could eventually collapse into another full-scale constitutional crisis similar to previous periods of Somali instability.

[00:17:37]And to understand why these fears are growing, we need to look at the deeper political crisis inside Somalia itself.

[00:17:44]Hassan Shik Muhammad's administration has faced mounting criticism over controversial constitutional amendments and alleged attempts to centralize power. Opposition groups and regional administrations like Puntland and Jubiland accuse the federal government of undermining Somalia's fragile federal system. Critics argue that proposed constitutional reforms could increase presidential powers while weakening regional autonomy. These political tensions have created fears of a constitutional breakdown. Just as Somalia is attempting to transition toward a more stable democratic framework, former Somali leaders, opposition politicians, and regional authorities have openly accused the federal government of pushing unilateral reforms without national consensus.

[00:18:33]Puntland even threatened to withdraw recognition of federal institutions at certain stages of the crisis. The dispute has exposed deep fractures within Somalia's political architecture.

[00:18:44]Now imagine how Kenya sees this situation from a security perspective.

[00:18:49]Kenya already hosts a large Somali refugee population. It already spends enormous resources combating al-Shabaab infiltration. It already worries about instability spilling into border counties like Mandera, Garissa and Wajir. So when Kenya sees federal Somali forces fighting regional Somali forces near its own border, while political uncertainty grows in Mogadishu, Nairobi views that not as an isolated domestic issue, but as a direct regional threat.

[00:19:17]However, Rudo's wording has triggered fierce backlash from many Somali and African observers.

[00:19:23]Across social media, many Africans accused the Kenyan president of disrespecting Somalia's sovereignty and humiliating a neighboring African nation before an international audience. Others argued that no African leader should publicly describe another African country as a failed state while speaking to Western media. Critics say such language reinforces negative Western narratives about Africa and weakens continental unity.

[00:19:50]Some Somali commentators accused Kenya of hypocrisy, pointing out that Kenya itself faces corruption scandals, youth unemployment, insecurity, police brutality allegations, and political tensions. Others questioned whether Kenya's involvement in Somalia affairs over the years has actually stabilized Somalia or contributed to long-term dependency and regional rivalry. At the same time, some Africans defended Rud's remarks, arguing that African leaders too often avoid speaking honestly about governance failures on the continent.

[00:20:24]Supporters claim that Somalia's ongoing political divisions, insecurity, and governance struggles cannot simply be ignored for the sake of diplomacy. They argue that if regional instability threatens neighboring countries, leaders have a responsibility to speak openly about the risks. The Somali government itself has reportedly reacted with anger and frustration behind the scenes, although officials have attempted to avoid escalating the crisis publicly.

[00:20:52]Somali officials and governmental aligned commentators insist that Somalia remains a sovereign state undergoing difficult but legitimate political reforms. They reject descriptions of Somalia as a failed state and argue that the country has made significant progress over the past decade in rebuilding institutions, expanding infrastructure, strengthening international partnerships, and fighting al-Shabaab.

[00:21:18]Indeed, Somalia's supporters point to major improvements compared to the dark years following the collapse of the Somali state in 1991. Mogadishu today is dramatically different from the war ravaged city it once was. International airlines operate flights into Somalia.

[00:21:36]Foreign investors have returned in sectors like telecommunications and real estate. The Somali government has re-entered regional diplomacy and international financial systems. The country also secured debt relief milestones and expanded security cooperation with international partners.

[00:21:54]But critics respond that despite these gains, Somalia still remains extremely fragile. Al-Shabaab continues carrying out deadly attacks. Political tensions between the federal government and regional states remain unresolved.

[00:22:08]Corruption allegations persist. Somalia remains among the world's most corruptionaffected countries.

[00:22:14]>> Somalia has been excluded from Kenya's new visa free travel policy and many people are outraged. While citizens from most African and Caribbean nations can now enter Kenya without a visa, Somali have been specifically left out. Both countries are members of the East African community, which makes this decision even more controversial.

[00:22:37]Kenyans online argue that the exclusion is based on security concerns, but many Somali view it as discrimination. One nizen commented, "If we are building a visa-free Africa, it must include all Africans." The Somali government states that this issue goes beyond just visas.

[00:22:55]It pertains to respect, dignity, and whether Somalia is being treated as an equal partner in the region. Should Kenya reconsider this decision?

[00:23:04]>> And this is where the situation becomes dangerous. Because when a neighboring leader publicly questions Somalia's stability, it does not only affect diplomacy. It affects investor confidence. It affects regional security cooperation. It affects how international partners view Somalia's political future. It even affects the morale of Somali citizens trying to rebuild their country after decades of conflict. There is also the geopolitical dimension. The Horn of Africa is currently one of the world's most strategically contested regions. Global powers including China, the United States, Turkey, the UAE, and Russia all have growing interests in East Africa and the Red Sea Corridor. Ethiopia, Eratria, Djibouti, Kenya, and Somalia are all competing for influence and strategic positioning. In such an environment, instability inside Somalia does not remain local for long. It quickly becomes regional and international. Kenya itself is increasingly positioning itself as East Africa's diplomatic and economic powerhouse.

[00:24:09]President Rudo has aggressively pursued regional leadership, mediation roles, and continental visibility. His administration wants Keny as a stabilizing force in Africa. Some analysts believe his tough language towards Somalia was also intended to project strength domestically and internationally, especially as Kenya faces its own internal political pressures and economic frustrations. But there is a serious risk here. Publicly escalating tensions with Somalia could backfire. Somalia and Kenya are deeply interconnected economically, socially, and culturally. Somali businesses play major roles in Kenya's economy, particularly in Nairobi's Eastley district. Crossber trade between both countries supports thousands of livelihoods. Intelligence cooperation between Kenyan and Somali security agencies remains essential in combating al-Shabaab. If diplomatic relations deteriorate significantly, both countries could suffer. There is also the fear that al-Shabaab itself could benefit from rising tensions. Extremist groups often exploit political divisions and diplomatic disputes to strengthen recruitment narratives. If ordinary Somali begin viewing Kenya as hostile towards Somalia, extremist propaganda could gain traction among frustrated populations. That is one reason many regional observers are urging both governments to deescalate tensions carefully. Another major concern is what happens next inside Somalia politically.

[00:25:39]Somalia is approaching a critical political transition period. Debates over elections, constitutional reforms, federalism, and security control remain unresolved. If these tensions intensify further, Somalia could face prolonged instability, precisely at a time when the international community is gradually reducing some aspects of peacekeeping involvement. And perhaps most importantly, this controversy exposes a larger African dilemma. How should African leaders speak about governance failures inside other African countries?

[00:26:12]Should leaders prioritize diplomatic solidarity and avoid public criticism?

[00:26:17]Or should they openly confront instability and governance breakdowns when regional security is threatened?

[00:26:24]This debate is now spreading rapidly across African political circles. For some Africans, Rudo's statement was reckless and humiliating. For others, it was overdue honesty. But regardless of where people stand, one thing is now undeniable. Tensions between Kenya and Somalia have entered a dangerous new chapter. And the consequences could stretch far beyond these two countries.

[00:26:47]Because when neighboring states begin publicly questioning each other's stability, trust erodess. Regional cooperation weakens. Security coordination becomes harder. Economic integration slows down. and in one of Africa's most volatile regions that creates openings for chaos, terrorism, and foreign interference. The question now is whether diplomacy can pull both countries back from escalation before the situation worsens further. Will Nairobi and Moadishu quietly repair relations behind closed doors? Or are we witnessing the beginning of a much larger geopolitical confrontation in the Horn of Africa? And perhaps the biggest question of all is this. Was President Rning Africa about a real danger inside Somalia? Or has this statement itself now become part of the crisis? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. Was William Rud right to speak openly about Somalia's instability, or did he cross a diplomatic line by calling Somalia a failed state on international television? And what does this rising tension mean for the future of East Africa? Disclaimer. This report is based on publicly available interviews, regional political analysis, media reports, and ongoing developments at the time of production. Political situations can evolve rapidly, and viewers are encouraged to follow multiple sources for broader context.

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