The Risk Of STRONG Tornadoes Is Growing..

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]A large area of the country runs the risk of significant severe weather today and we're going to give you a state-by-state breakdown of what you can expect for your neck of the woods. We're going to cover the Midwest first and then we'll go over the Southern Plains next and then we'll have a segment for the Northeast after that. And then after we cover all that, we'll speak on the ingredients coming together, the severe parameter, just kind of nerd out with you guys a little bit and then we'll speak on the days to come because severe weather chances continue to increase for the rest of the work week now all the way into the weekend. We're specifically watching Friday so speak a little bit on that. My name is Mitch. Good Tuesday morning. Hope you guys are doing well.

[00:00:34]Subscribe if you haven't. Like the video if you like it and if anybody has anything I can pray about or pray over, please put it in the comments below.

[00:00:41]Let's get rocking and rolling this morning. So let's cover the Midwest first and if you're wondering, Mitch, I don't live in the Midwest. I live in Texas. I live in New New York State, PA, just utilize those timestamps are littered throughout the video but we're going to cover the Midwest first because this is where our highest severe weather threat level is for today and into tonight. So Storm Prediction Center outlook, we have an enhanced risk in the orange area.

[00:01:02]Just remember that some of this information could change. I'm making this video as of around 6:45 a.m. The Storm Prediction Center will drop another update here in about an hour and a half to hours. But the orange area, that's a level three out of five, an enhanced risk. The yellow area, that is a slight risk, a level two out of five and the dark green, that's a level one out of five, a marginal risk. So our highest severe weather threat is in this orange area today. What's driving this?

[00:01:26]The tornado outlook. We had an upgrade yesterday for today and now we are at a 10% chance in the yellow area of a tornado within 25 miles in the given location.

[00:01:36]The brown is at a 5% risk and the green which covers a large area is at a 2% risk. But if you note, there is a black outlined area with a black dashes going in between. That means that some of these tornadoes that could potentially form could be strong, maybe EF2, maybe even a EF3. So strong to intense, maybe even violent tornadoes. We got to watch because the environment certainly is there for today. So there is a risk of strong tornadoes. Now if we take a look at the hail outlook, this is definitely a big deal also. In the red area, that is a 30% chance of hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter or larger and then the yellow area, that is a 15% risk of that and if you look at the black outlined area, black dashes going in between, that means some of this some of these hailstones could be quite large, 2 inch in diameter or larger. So the atmosphere will certainly support very large hail today.

[00:02:26]And then the damaging wind threat, if you live in this yellow area, that is a 15% risk of damaging winds. Now let's give you that state-by-state breakdown.

[00:02:34]Let's start off with Iowa. We'll speak on the highlighted states first that's in that enhanced risk area. So Iowa, around 3:00 p.m. Timestamp is up here if you lose me at all. All right, there ain't a whole lot of anything going on.

[00:02:45]Storms will basically I won't I won't I won't say they'll explode out of nowhere but it's going to it's going to kind of seem like they are. Like bang, 3:00 to 4:00 p.m. we get this very intense storm that basically does explode out of nowhere close to Waterloo. Now I'm not going to guarantee you this is exactly where the storm's going to form but I do think you know we're going to get explosive convection in this area later on this afternoon. And then we get into 5:00 p.m. and then we just got a flat out isolated supercell being depicted by the her model. Like I said, I don't want to keep repeating myself. This isn't exactly the way this is going to happen but that is a meaty looking supercell in Northeast Iowa and if something like this happens, you cannot rule out a strong tornado. So this is 5:00 p.m.

[00:03:28]This is 6:00 p.m. then the stuff begins to move into, you know, northern Illinois and Wisconsin and you know, it doesn't show a ton after that. This is 8:00 p.m. This is 9:00, this is 10:00, this is 11:00. Got some convection coming out of, you know, northern Missouri into southern Iowa and then we get some more storms that try to form around Iowa City, Burlington, Davenport.

[00:03:48]Watch out near Dubuque and you know, then we get some convection overnight.

[00:03:51]3:00 a.m. could get some thunderstorms that'll kind of swing in so we could continue to get a run a risk of severe weather even late into the overnight hours. This 5:00 in the morning tomorrow.

[00:04:01]But it's really let's back it up here.

[00:04:04]It's these couple of cells and listen, this cell could easily form down near Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Dubuque, Davenport.

[00:04:13]So we just got to watch out for any supercells that explode in this area.

[00:04:18]They will have the potential to produce a stronger to even intense tornado.

[00:04:23]Strong EF2, intense EF3, violent EF4 or higher.

[00:04:27]Just be careful here. I know there ain't a whole lot to show you here but yeah.

[00:04:30]So this is Wisconsin. 4:00 p.m. Not a whole lot going on. This is 5:00 and then boom, just like in Eastern Iowa, Southern Wisconsin could have some very intense thunderstorms develop. Here's one kind of between Madison and Milwaukee. Here's that cell that we just talked about in Iowa. That's probably going to drift into southern areas of Wisconsin. This is 6:00 p.m. It's kind of like you got two clusters of storms.

[00:04:53]One about to go over Lake Michigan.

[00:04:54]Watch out Milwaukee up to you know, a name of a town I'm not going to try to pronounce and embarrass myself with but West Bend. And then we got these clusters of storms back here about to approach Madison, south of La Crosse.

[00:05:07]It looks like Eau Claire, you'll be fine today and I do want to mention there is the possibility of some very strong thunderstorms severe and southeastern Minnesota to Rochester point southeast.

[00:05:18]I don't have a an entire state pulled up for you guys but watch out in this corner of the state here.

[00:05:22]But you notice these little squiggly things coming off some of these cells.

[00:05:25]This is where we have intense updrafts.

[00:05:27]Very large hail is possible here and all hazards of tornado. Look at these this cell kind of cruising over Lake Michigan and we even got some cells up here near Oshkosh. I mean, watch out Stevens Point but it looks like most of this will stay in southern Wisconsin.

[00:05:40]For anybody tuning in from this area, say hey first but obviously stay safe first and then say hey second. But these these storms could be very intense. Have a way to cover things if you do. Not everybody has the luxury of having a carport or garage. But these storms will cruise. Like for example, this is 5:00 p.m., 6:00 p.m., 7:00 p.m., 8:00 p.m., 9:00 p.m. and then they start to you know, get over Lake Michigan. But this is going to be a rowdy late afternoon, evening, dinner time across southern Wisconsin. These storms down here these close cluster could produce all hazards, guys. And then we drop it down into Illinois. First off, we got this cluster of storms going to be cruising through throughout the morning hours. By the time we get into, you know, 9:00 a.m., 10:00 a.m., we'll see if these storms are still hanging hanging strong here as they're trying to dip down into Indianapolis around 10:00 a.m. Timestamp up here if you're losing me. And then we get into lunchtime. You can see the storms. I mean, they look like they're trying to get going again. So Indianapolis around midday, you do want to watch the storms down here. This is tucked into a very moist environment.

[00:06:41]You're just kind of I would say outrunning a couple of the other environmental factors that you need.

[00:06:48]We'll just leave it at that. But these storms could re-intensify. You see that updraft velocity swaps signal right here. Could be more some intense updrafts. So just don't ignore this kind of corridor from, you know, Lafayette down to Indianapolis down to Cincinnati today. We'll talk about Ohio here in a second. And then what happens after that? We'll watch in northern Illinois.

[00:07:08]Here comes a a very intense cell right here sneaking into northwest areas of Illinois and it could slam Rockford and this thing will be tapping into just an environment that you know, everything's kind of building up to this to the southern flank. So I mean, if this can become alone, it can attach to a leftover and outflow boundary that the Storm Prediction Center mentions around this area, this can create and kind of an isolated environment that favors more of a spin in the atmosphere. We just got to watch these. These could drift in Chicago easily. I mean, this entire area south of these cells showing up on this model could be littered with storms. It's just like yesterday, you know, it did not show hardly any storm initiation on the morning HRRR model in Kansas and areas of Iowa and we ended up getting tornadoes yesterday in that area. So it's a tough day to figure this out. It's going to be more even more tough when we talk about the plains. But as we move forward, these storms could cruise into Chicago and then could move over southern areas of Lake Michigan. Then we can have additional convection that moves in later tonight but I don't think this will be packing near as a punch as the storms we deal with throughout the daytime hours. And then we look at lower Michigan here. A very quiet afternoon, I think. I don't think a whole lot's going to be going on. And then you see these cells cruising over Lake Michigan. This is 8:00 p.m., 9:00 p.m. and then boom, these storms will be very intense moving across. Maybe Lake Michigan will weaken them because of the cooler waters. We'll see. But it moves across Muskegon.

[00:08:37]Hopefully I said that right. Mount Pleasant, be careful. Grand Rapids, 10:00 p.m. Could get some hail storms, very strong winds and even some tornadoes embedded in this cluster of storms moving into lower Michigan later tonight. This is midnight. Man, it's going to be a loud overnight period across this region. Kalamazoo, Lansing, Flint.

[00:08:56]And then eventually this works its way down into Detroit, Jackson. Kalamazoo still dealing with some storms and then we get into tomorrow morning and then we'll have another threat of severe weather south of this region. So and then I I'm sorry, not Iowa, Ohio starting off this morning could have some convection that forms this afternoon. You see some storms in northern Ohio and then we start to get to 3:00 p.m. Some storms could form in the eastern areas of the state. Some storms could form in the southern areas of the state, too. Watch out Cincinnati around, you know, mid-afternoon and >> [sighs] [clears throat] >> it's going to be a tough day in Ohio because you got additional convection running into PA. You got the leftover morning convection trying to make it in Ohio from Illinois and Indiana but we can have some storms in southern section of the state and then what happens later tonight could have some convection funneling in from the northwest into the northwestern areas of the state. Toledo, Bowling Green. So I think Ohio will be kind of be of a bit of a tough state to figure out but the severe weather threat isn't as high um to your friends off to the um to the west.

[00:10:00]Uh Missouri, you know, we make it to about 7:00, 8:00 p.m., 9:00 p.m., then you see some storms cruising out of Kansas. They kind of move into the western areas of Missouri, uh but what Missouri's going to be another state where sometime around the early to mid late afternoon hours, even though the her shows nothing for 4:00 p.m., you could easily get a lone supercell in this area. Kind of a dry um a dry line set up a little bit in this area mixed with a shortwave to your north. So, we'll watch, but, you know, the her model shows convection not moving in till later this evening until the sun setting, and then we get some widespread thunderstorms that move into the states.

[00:10:38]So, we'll just be aware of that. It kind of moves in late after late evening into the overnight hours, and then we just have some rounds of rain. Last state we'll show you here for the Midwest portion, even though the Kansas is not really considered the Midwest, kind of the plains here. Uh but, I'm showing it to you because the storm prediction center outlook map that I showed you really included Kansas here.

[00:10:57]And the one for the southern plains does not. But, this is 5:00 p.m. This is 6:00 p.m., 7:00. This is more of a dry line setup. We could have some very intense storms, once again, because we had them yesterday in eastern Kansas.

[00:11:09]And uh this is 8:00 p.m. Shows some big storms kind of south of Kansas City, tucked into the southeastern area of the state, mostly. Um but, we could easily get some strong and severe storms up in the northwestern, sorry, northeastern areas of the state into southeastern areas of Nebraska too, which also has a slight risk. So, be aware near Beatrice, hopefully I said that right, any communities here in southeastern Kansas.

[00:11:33]But, these storms could pack one heck of a punch, very large hail threat. And there is a tornado risk in this, too, especially the further south you get closer to Oklahoma, which we'll talk about here in a second. And then we start to get into the kind of the overnight hours, this is around 2:00 a.m., it's around 3:00 a.m. actually. We got some scattered convection trying to form here, and uh then we get into tomorrow morning. Uh all right. So, the southern mode of this, just a slight risk. This could upgrade. I could see it I could see us getting an enhanced risk in areas of Oklahoma for these isolated cells. But, right now, a slight risk, level two out of five in the yellow area, marginal risk, level one out of five around that. What's driving this?

[00:12:12]Be aware of this isolated higher end tornado threat down here. I could see us upgrading to an enhanced risk. But, right now, you know, or we're lacking some kinematics. Thermodynamics will certainly be there. We're lacking some kinematics down here, wind energy. So, brown area, 5% risk of a tornado. The green area, 2% risk, black outlined area, black dashes going in between.

[00:12:35]That means we could get a stronger tornado, EF2.

[00:12:38]All right. The hail threat, yellow area, 15% risk of hail exceeding 1 in in diameter or larger. And the black outlined area, hail could exceed 2 in in diameter or larger. And then the wind threat, 15% risk of damaging winds within 25 mi in the given location.

[00:12:54]Breaking down Oklahoma uh this afternoon to this evening. This is 1:00 p.m., timestamp up here. Getting into 2:00 p.m., 3:00 p.m., 4:00 p.m.

[00:13:03]Some storms starting to form, Elk City over to Enid, uh Ponca City, Pawhuska City.

[00:13:09]Probably butchering some names, trying my best.

[00:13:12]Um 5:00 p.m. Isolated convection begins to form. But, this convection could be quite intense, could produce a very large hailstones, and it's there's likely going to be a lot of broad rotation. Are we going to get any tight rotation to get a tornado with this? We have to see. And then we get to 6:00 p.m. Storms between Elk City, Oklahoma City up to Stillwater. It's trying to hit Lawton, and we could easily get some very intense storms here in northern areas of uh Texas near, you know, between Childress, Wichita Falls, they're right on top of them. And then we get to 7:00 p.m., we get to 8:00 p.m., and these storms look very intense near Bar- Bartlesville, uh Stillwater, near Tulsa. Just be aware of these, and then they could maybe clip or either either form over northwestern areas of Arkansas.

[00:13:54]Additional convection tries to get going right over the same areas. I don't know if this is going to get up to Woodward.

[00:14:00]We'll see.

[00:14:01]Uh but, more convection, more very strong and severe thunderstorms could form overnight.

[00:14:06]And then we move into tomorrow morning.

[00:14:08]Arkansas, not a whole lot to show you here, but I don't want to leave you hanging cuz I know I got some loyal followers over this area. But, um 9:00 p.m., 10:00 p.m., just watch out for some convection, some storms up near Fort Smith, Fayetteville, Rogers, maybe the Ozarks. But, it doesn't show a whole lot. But, we could get some storms even later tonight, it's around midnight to 4:00 a.m., some storms could be possible in the northwestern areas of the state.

[00:14:29]Northern Texas, 4:00 p.m., 5:00 p.m., 6:00 p.m. See them storms explode right here.

[00:14:35]Childress, Wichita Falls, be aware of that. Not a whole lot that forms over the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Most of the stuff, if it does form, is off to your west, but could get some isolated very strong and severe storms um out west of the Dallas-Fort Worth, San Angelo, Abilene. Uh just this is 11:00 p.m., midnight. This is getting into the overnight hours. Not a whole not really a whole lot to show you. Now, this is certainly one of the severe weather capital areas of the country. This is 3:00 p.m., 4:00 p.m., 5:00 p.m. Shows some very intense thermodynamic driven convection down here in southwestern areas of the state. So, you know, south of Midland, Big Spring, San Angelo, south of this area going to get some intense supercells riding out of northern Mexico.

[00:15:16]And uh these could produce some very large hail. You cannot rule out a tornado, but right now, you know, your highest threat certainly is large hail.

[00:15:24]So, All right. The northeast, let's not leave you guys hanging. Right now, we have a marginal risk that extends, and I will say all the way down to northern areas of West Virginia, almost all the way down to Baltimore, includes the entire state of PA, and just covers a large area of the northeast, New England. Then we have this more elevated area of a severe weather threat in the yellow, a slight risk, level two out of five. What's driving this? It's the wind threat.

[00:15:48]Uh the shortwave that's kind of moving over right now will drive more convection. It's kind of the same shortwave it looks like that generated the severe weather yesterday across the Midwest. This will be crossing and generating some severe weather across the northeast, and uh we have a uh 15% risk of damaging winds in this yellow area. Now, what's really stumping me is they do not even have a risk of hail for the northeast. That is blowing my mind.

[00:16:17]I have no idea why there is no risk of hail. And there's a sub-2% risk of tornadoes, I don't even have the graphic pulled up. I'm going to talk to you about why here in a second. But, PA, this is 2:00 p.m., 3:00 p.m. Got some storms, watch out Pittsburgh, Grove City, this might sneak all the way into State College. This is 5:00 p.m. Uh you can see the storms right in here moving across the central areas of the state.

[00:16:38]We got additional convection maybe up near the New York-PA line. And this is 7:00 p.m., just clusters of storms cruising through, marginal risk in place in these areas. These could pack a punch. Um 9:00 p.m., 10:00 p.m., 11:00.

[00:16:51]This is midnight, and we could have some maybe additional convection that gets going in western areas of the state.

[00:16:58]Just clusters of storms cruising in west to east across areas of PA. Now, New York, it gets a little bit more active.

[00:17:04]We're going to have some thunderstorms likely moving out of Ontario, moving through the Adirondacks and northern areas of upstate New York. And then we could have Check out this cell right here kind of just south of the Adirondacks, cruising just north of the corridor between Syracuse and Albany.

[00:17:23]This is very possible. We could have a very intense couple of supercells that I think could produce large hail. I don't understand why there's not a hail threat at all. They didn't at least put a small risk, 5% risk. There's Yeah, it just blows my mind. Anyways, but it shows a supercell right here that looks rather intense. Um and it looks isolated, discrete. And this tries to cruise into Watch out, Robin. You know, you I know you live in She lives a loyal follower that lives in southern Vermont.

[00:17:56]This thing tries to work into your area um you know, later this afternoon, 5:00, 6:00, 7:00, and then we just have maybe additional convection that forms at anywhere in New York, honestly. And then uh the action continues, could even get some thunderstorms that make it all the way to New York City later this evening, but it's a pretty small risk right now.

[00:18:15]And then we look at southern New England. You can see uh clusters of storms riding through areas of mass up here. This is 8:00 p.m., 9:00 p.m. Some storms, heavy rain can make it into Boston. And uh could get some convection that tries to survive all the way into Long Island, but it just doesn't look like it does much.

[00:18:33]Uh and then we look at Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

[00:18:37]You know, we'll watch up here, too.

[00:18:38]Could get some severe storms. You see this one right here that we just talked about moving into Vermont. You get this one here in New Hampshire north of Manchester. This could be anywhere, though. Could be right on top of Manchester. Could not happen at all.

[00:18:49]Could be more widespread. Y'all know how it goes. Um and then we get to 7:00 p.m., we get to 8:00 p.m., and just kind of scattered areas of heavy rain after that. Surface feature more so down into here. So, as we're moving forward, you know, we're starting to move into this afternoon and this evening. This is going to increase our low-level flow out the southwest. So, this is going to help kind of revamp our very our sector of moist air, make it even more moist. So, we got a lot of wind energy building across this region, and by the time we get into this evening, we got this 40-50 knot low-level jet riding all the way up into some sort of boundary. You can see how the wind barbs are kind of turning into here. This is where we kind of have a weak surface wave surface low that's going to enhance this low-level flow across this region, increase that tornado threat, increase shear for that tornado threat. So, um as we're looking at the moisture and how it responds to this surface feature, you're going to see the moisture build all the way up across the Midwest. In fact, it's already in place. If we kind of back it up a little bit to this morning, you can see it's kind of dried out a little bit. This is kind of right now and then we move into this afternoon. A lot of moisture builds back in place. Massive area of dew points in the 60s, even a pool of dew points in the low 70s. And the her model a lot of times under does this. A lot of times it's more moist than what this is showing. So dew points in the 60s, that's very moist air. We know these thunderstorms love moist air in response to a very moist environment. Okay? Man, there's a lot of moisture right in here.

[00:20:16]We get higher cape levels. So this is already building into mid late morning.

[00:20:21]Uh mixed layer cape already rising to 3,000 joules per kilogram based off the her model. And then look how it rides up to this boundary right in here. Cape levels over 3,500 joules per kilogram.

[00:20:32]And uh just a lot of fuel in the atmosphere. Just ready to be tapped into. And as we move forward, you can see how the storms form. See how these little kind of splotches right in here? That's where thunderstorms form and then eat up the fuel. You see how it kind of like disappears like Pac-Man eating up all the fuel here. Um it's pretty wild to see. And then yeah. So hope that makes sense. If you look at the updraft helicity swath, you can tell where we have some stronger, more intense updrafts throughout this area. This tells us we're going to have a very large hail threat here, a tornado threat. And we're just going to have some meaty thunderstorms across this region. You can see how the tornado threat parameter uh really spikes very high across these areas.

[00:21:15]I mean man, look how high it is and look how high it is in lower areas of Michigan. This isn't always tell the picture. I don't even always like showing this. But uh definitely some higher end tornado potential in certain areas. As we move forward, there is a severe weather threat for tomorrow, our Wednesday. Slight risk in the yellow, level two out of five. A secondary slight risk has been issued for the Ohio Valley areas in the northeast. Marginal risk in the dark green around that. And right now, tornado threat is at a 2% risk across the green areas. And then we have another 5% risk of a tornado in the brown area across Oklahoma.

[00:21:48]And then we have a risk of a stronger tornado in that black outlined area.

[00:21:51]Wind threat, yellow area 15% risk of damaging winds.

[00:21:55]Hail threat, yellow area 15% risk of hail exceeding 1 inch in size. Black outlined area, hail could exceed 2 inch in diameter or larger. Um I'm not I don't have a detailed breakdown of tomorrow. We'll do that in the next video. But this is kind of the in between. This is for our Thursday. We do have a marginal risk across areas of the Midwest down to sections of the mid south. So we'll watch out for that. But check this out.

[00:22:19]This is for Friday. Another system moves in.

[00:22:23]And we already have a level three out of five risk of severe weather for day four. So a 30% risk of severe weather within 25 miles of the given location in this orange area. 15% risk in the yellow area.

[00:22:37]So um man, there's a lot more severe weather still on the way and this is definitely uptrended. And check it out Friday. I mean I'm sorry, Saturday. They now have a slight risk, a level two out of five risk in that a yellow area. So severe weather has just totally skipped the south.

[00:22:52]>> [laughter] >> It really has. It's pretty wild. So of course we'll get very detailed on all these days um as we move forward. So let's create a time stamp. This will be our time stamp.

[00:23:02]Let's do a quick Bible devotion and then we'll head on out. So this morning we're in James chapter 1 verse 5 through 8.

[00:23:09]And it says, "Now if any of you lacks wisdom, he should ask God who gives to all generously and ungrudgingly >> [clears throat] >> and it will be given to him. But let him ask in faith without doubting for the doubter is like a surging sea driven and tossed by the wind. That person should not expect to receive anything from the Lord, being double-minded and unstable in all of his ways."

[00:23:30]So I'll put God will give you wisdom when you ask for it. He will guide you through the struggles of this life. He will work through in ways with spiritual insight to help you. But you have to believe he actually will. You can't have divided loyalty. Trying to follow God and relying and relying on the world won't work. I had a little bit of a ti- a little hand writing typo there. Trying to follow God and relying on the world won't work.

[00:23:54]Don't ask Don't ask with doubt or turn or turn away when you are pushed in a direction by God that makes you uncomfortable.

[00:24:02]In this verse specifically, maybe God wants to put you in a wisdom growing situation and even and even though that situation may be uncomfortable, it's what is needed for you to gain it and grow. That goes with anything we pray about. Trust and know God will follow through.

[00:24:19]So some notes I wrote on that verse and you know, when you when we pray for things, guys, um some sometimes we need sometimes we pray for something, you know, wisdom.

[00:24:33]And and and is what is what the verse is talking about there. And that situation, you know, maybe God's going to put you in a situation where you can gain wisdom.

[00:24:42]Where he can he can work through the situation with you. And you can gain knowledge, gain gain wisdom. And uh sometimes that situation that you got to work through is probably something you don't want to go through. I'm I'm sure most of us would just like to God to snap his fingers and just give us the wisdom. But that's not how it works and it shouldn't be how it works, right?

[00:25:01]And that's with anything we pray about.

[00:25:02]If you want to um pray that we get a new job, um are you doing things? Are you putting yourself out there to get a new job? If if you won't Well, it goes with anything. I I mean I'm not I could sit here and think of many things in my head, but you know, the things we pray for, are we kind of are we kind of setting setting setting the things up for God to work in? But at the same time, we have to And And this is what the verse is about. We have to trust that God will work cuz he will work through the situation. You can also go into other things. Is it Is it God's will on what you're praying on? We We talk about that a lot. Is it God's will? So anyways, that's all I got. Thank y'all for tuning in. God bless all y'all and stay safe today. Take the weather Take the weather serious. Don't wait until it gets serious to take it serious.

[00:25:51]It could cost you a life. God bless.

[00:25:53]Stay safe.