Growing Risk of GOP Shutout in CA Governor's Race!

Añadido: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]A disaster for Republicans shaping up in the California governor's race. Data increasingly showing that there's a higher likelihood that Republicans will be shut out of the November runoff and two Democrats, Bera and Styer, will emerge as the only options on your November ballot. What can we do to prevent this calamity? Coming up, my conversation with John Flechman.

[00:00:35]If the election, if I was voting today, I would be voting for Steve Hilton. Not because I don't like uh the sheriff, but because >> I'm Carl Deio, chairman of Reform California and a California state representative. And we've been warning you for months in the last 18 months that under California's crazy top two jungle primary that the likelihood was pretty high that Republicans could get shut out of the November election if they didn't consolidate behind one credible candidate. and all the data points and all the backroom minations amongst political establishment insiders on the Democrat side, all of it is pointing in the direction of a Republican shutout. But there's still time and there is a way to prevent this disaster by getting Republicans to vote strategically using data and get behind one candidate. Uh before we get into that and my conversation with John Flechman, who's probably one of the smartest guys on uh the Republican side in California politics as to what's really happening and what the data really shows, I'm going to invite you, don't just get informed, get engaged. Go to the website reformc california.org, reformc california.org.

[00:01:50]That's where you'll find all of our news programs, as well as our campaigns, California voter ID, Save Prop 13, and most importantly, our plain English voter guide, which covers every single county in the state of California with the ballot measures given a plain description, the judge races, the schoolboard races, and of course, all the races in between all the way up to uh the state house and the statewide races. We're going to get into the governor's race in just a moment, but check out your voter guide and share it with your friends because Democrats are sending out fake Republican voter guides. Fake Republican voter guides trying to split the vote in key target races. Go to reformc california.org, click under voter guides, and you'll get the u uh plain English voter guide for your county. Let me bring on uh my good friend, and I do mean my good friend John Flechman. I've known him for 25 years. Uh he's forgotten more about Republican politics in California than most professional political consultants on our side even know today. Uh former executive director of the California Republican Party back when it actually was I don't know a real political party and doing good work. Um and now he publishes So does it matter. And I want you to go to the website soitmatter.com.

[00:03:11]Check it out. lots of good updates on California news uh that you won't hear from the liberal media. John, thanks for stopping by.

[00:03:20]So, you and I have been worried about what we're going to talk about the the shut out of Republicans in the governor's race. Uh walk our viewers through uh why it is so easy for Republicans to get shut out in the governor's race.

[00:03:39]Um, Carl, thanks first and foremost for having me on the show and for all that you do for the cause. Not only uh not only were you already doing so much heading up Reform California after your heroic efforts on behalf of taxpayers in San Diego, but now on top of it to serve in the California legislature. My only question is when do you sleep? But uh I guess I guess sleep is for wimps, right?

[00:04:01]We got a we have a battle to fight to save California. So, um, the real answer, to be honest, is is math, Carl.

[00:04:08]Um, this is a state that has a lot more Democrats than Republicans. We all know this. We have to deal with it. And the easiest two things to look at to help our people watching the show to understand our math problems would be the results of the 2024 presidential election in California and the results of the special election last November for Prop 50 campaign in California. In both of those campaigns, the good guys came in or the the the side of good came in at about 40% of the vote, whereas the bad guys, in this case, whether it was Kla Harris getting 60% of the vote roughly or the yes on Prop 50 getting 60% of the vote. So, you already start out mathematically looking at the fact that there's a lot more Democrats than Republicans or people that are voting liberal than conservative on the natural turning out. Um, we could talk about what the voter ID initiative may do for all that, but that's a different topic.

[00:05:02]Uh, very good thing that you're doing there. But right now, what we have is a situation where you've got two Republicans, uh, two credible Republicans running, uh, Steve Hilton and Chad Biano. And we've talked about this, Carl. These are both good men.

[00:05:16]Either one of them would be infinitely better as a governor than any of the cast of characters being put forward by the progressive left. But there's only two of them. And if they managed to somehow do it and split it evenly, they'd each get about 20% of the vote, that's a big if, which we're going to talk about because that's not the way that it's shaping up to go. Um, uh, but then you've got these Democrats, and while there were a bunch of them splitting up the vote, they, you know, the top three of them were in the low teens. And you could say, okay, well, this starts to make a little bit of sense. Except we've always known, Carl, which other people didn't want to talk about, that the field winnows. it shrinks, it gets smaller. Um, in this particular instance, the winnowing season spectacularly occurred with the implosion of Eric Swallwell and around all the sexual abuse and assault allegations. He went from capturing roughly 15% of the vote to getting 0% overnight. And >> so before we get into that, let me just go through the math real quick. So, um, while you were speaking, I I showed people the results of the the presidential election, you know, 58, sorry, uh, uh, 38% to 62%. But more importantly, take a look at the primary election 2022. Okay, so this is this is the June 2022 primary election for governor. Gavin Newsome got 55.9%.

[00:06:43]And Republicans collectively, Brian Dolly is at 17.7%.

[00:06:48]Um, Republicans collectively got 34 to 35% of the vote. So we're talking about in the primary 35% of the vote, maybe 34% of the vote would go to all Republican candidates.

[00:07:04]Brian Dolly was the only legitimate Republican running. He barely uh was in the high teens, 17.7%.

[00:07:13]Take a look right now at the polling. Um the uh EMC poll uh shows Basera at 19, Hilton at 19, Bianca at 14, which means that if you add up 19 and 14, that's 33%. THERE'S NOTHING LEFT. There's nothing left. The undecided voted 14% mainly Democrat. You have to Tom Tommy Styer's at 14%. Easily five or six percentage points of the undecided could go to Styer. An additional 1% goes to Bera. It would be 212019 the two Democrats would emerge. Now it gets even worse from the Democrat poll that was just released yesterday. This is the Democrat party poll. Hilton at 18, Bera at 18, Bianco 14, Styer at 12, and you've got a gaggle of others. So if you take Hilton and Biano, 18 plus 14 is 32%. There's only two percentage points, maybe three left. But when you add up the undecided, there's about 15% undecided. We are looking at Styer with $100 million left to spend, if not more, uh, in the last three weeks of the election, he can easily leap from. So when we when we say, look, look at the math. The Republican vote, there's no one undecided. They either are for Hilton or they're for Biano. There's not much left. Whereas the Democrat vote is still got a pretty chunk, a big chunk of undecided. And that means that Styer or and or Bisera can easily emerge into the runoff. Uh this is the math. The math indicates warning lights, red lights.

[00:08:51]Republicans right now may be headed for a shutout.

[00:08:55]>> Yeah, 100%. And so I'll do the pivot for you even though you're the show host.

[00:09:00]Um, if you understand the math, then what you really understand is that the only way that Republicans don't get shut out of this race for November is we have to consolidate behind one candidate. And this is not about making a subjective call as to whether Biano or Hilton would be a better candidate.

[00:09:18]>> I like both of them, but >> they're both great guys.

[00:09:21]>> Carl and I have always been of the same opinion. These are both great people.

[00:09:24]But I can tell you that the process that I've gone through and again I've not endorsed anyone. Carl hasn't endorsed anyone. Reform California hasn't endorsed anyone. If the election, if I was voting today, I would be voting for Steve Hilton. Not because I don't like uh the sheriff, but because Steve Hilton clearly in the polling has the best shot to make the top two. And by the way, if if the polling showed that Bianca was ahead, he would be getting my vote. So, this is not really about which one of these people. It's about being smart and saying because and and Carl does this better than anybody. I'm going to set you up, Carl. What happens if we don't have a Republican make the general election? What What effect could that have on us?

[00:10:07]>> You've said it before, but I think people need to hear it.

[00:10:09]>> That's why the Democrats are doing this because they know likelihood if a Republican makes it in the runoff in November, they still win the governor's race in in in the blue state of California. So, they're not worried about losing the governor's race as long as they get one of their guys pass the post and they know that that's going to happen for sure. 100% for sure. Um, the reason why they want two Democrats is not because they're worried about the governor's race. They're worried about congressional seats like David Valadeo's seat, this uh congressional district 22.

[00:10:36]They're worried about the 48th district uh in Southern California, the open seat that ISA uh cowardly walked away from.

[00:10:44]Uh they they want to pick up seats in the state assembly and the state senate.

[00:10:48]They want to pick up local seats. So, if they can get two Democrats off, let's not forget >> it depresses turnout, >> right? Let's not forget they've got a bunch of tax and bond and borrowing measures on the statewide ballot. They want to make a permanent, >> right? And they want to kill voter ID >> and they want to say kill the prop save prop 13 measure. So, >> this is all about depressing Republican turnout by manipulating the field so that Bera and Styer make it into the runoff. This is getting back to your your approach and my approach to uh voting in the governor's race. Again, I like Chad and Steve Hilton. I think they're both great guys and we have supporters at Reform California that like both guys. Uh and so I'm agnostic.

[00:11:35]I'm happy with either one of them. And so here's how our Reform California plain English voter guide deals with this problem. And and again, go to reformc california.org, click under the voter guide or electionc california.org.

[00:11:47]It says governor.

[00:11:50]Both Steve Hilton and Chad Biano are good men. Would make a great governor.

[00:11:53]However, there's a risk of a shutout if Republicans split their votes, thus allowing two Democrats to advance in the runoff. While Reform California is not endorsing one candidate over the other, we strongly recommend that voters review the latest polling on this race to unite behind whichever candidate is in the lead and has the best chance to make it into the runoff. Now, whenever you want to vote, whether that's on election day or today or somewhere in between. When you are ready to fill out your ballot, first go to the Reformed California voter guide at electionc california.org.

[00:12:21]Click under your county. All your races are there, plus the ballot measures. But secondly, whichever candidate for governor is leading in the polling, vote for that person. And we give you the the latest reliable polling right here. And I do not pick the polls based upon who's in the lead. I pick the polls and and John will attest to this. There are some fake polls out there and there are real polls. And we look at the same polls so that we don't mix the methodology. Right now, Steve Hilton, because we look at three different, actually four different polls and we blend the averages in.

[00:12:54]Right now, Steve Hilton has a uh roughly um uh uh 3.5% lead uh among the voters. That's actually increasing in the most latest polls. Um and 5% of Republican voters may be undecided. So, Hilton 17, Styer 14, Bianco 14, Porter 10, Bera 10. This is just in the Emerson poll. Um, we will update the polling and as as John and I have just said, when we vote, we're going to look at the polling and if Bianca's in the lead, we're gonna vote for Biano. If Hilton's in the lead, we're going to vote for Hilton. It has nothing to do with whether we like one over the other. We like I actually like the two of them equally because each of them have pluses and minuses and each of them on the net are just wonderful.

[00:13:41]>> But we got to get behind them or else we're screwed.

[00:13:43]>> Yeah. If I if I could say this because I think it's important to everybody who's watching. Carl and I have been doing politics so long that it almost sounds like we're saying this is easy for you to do and and we recognize that it's not. We're talking to people that have spent the better part of a year or longer committed to a candidate that they believe in. And at some level it's almost a cynical request to say instead of voting for the candidate you believe in, vote for the candidate that can make the general election. It's almost like us admitting what's wrong with politics and it's this Prop 14 system that's terrible and we could get into it where it forces you to have to make decisions.

[00:14:21]And so I just wanted to say um we get it. This is really really hard stuff to do because first of all, Republicans, Democrats are, you know, love to be told what to do. They're collectivist.

[00:14:34]They're very top down oriented. And the people watching this are like Carl and me. We don't like to be told what to do.

[00:14:41]And and to be clear, we're not telling you what to do. We're telling you what we're going to do and and the plain English.

[00:14:49]>> Yeah. And that the data and the math, it's voting strategically. Now, look, in other races, and I I was hoping I would be able to do this in the governor's race. I was hoping that Steve or Chad would flame out or screw up or do something great uh to make them the obvious fighter versus the sellout. No, they're both good men. Okay? There's a lot of good stuff. And anyone who trashes these guys, stop. Okay, that's not what this is about. They're both good men. Um, but in the other races, absolutely. We we we saw a clear fighter to get behind versus a sellout. And so, for example, in the treasurer's race, Jennifer Hawk, hands down, vote for her.

[00:15:29]Not that wing nut idiot David Serpa uh or in insurance commissioner, not Robert Howell. He's insane. Um Stacy Cororsen is the real deal. UH SONIA SHAW, GET BEHIND her because she can win the the superintendent for public uh instruction. So, in each of these races, we we get behind the principled fighter versus the sellout Rhino. Um, but in the in the governor's race, they're both to the best.

[00:15:55]>> And the point being, if we if we if we don't have someone at the top of that ticket, all of these great fighters that Carl just identified, they could win in June, but if we are vacant at the top of the ticket, it really diminishes the likelihood that any of them have any I mean, you can't f go onto the field without your general. And that's what the Democrats are trying to do right now. They're trying to decapitate the Republican ticket before it even has a chance to deploy for the general election. And you can't let them get away with it. And the way that they get away with it is if Republicans split their votes evenly. And as Carl pointed out from the math, we end up with a choice between Bera and Styer, which is kind of like saying, do you want the battery acid or the rat poison? And that's not a real choice.

[00:16:40]>> Now, there are some people out there, I know what you're thinking. I know what you're questioning. Well, does this mean, Carl, I should wait till election day and then vote late because the polls might shift? Actually, no. And let me tell you why. Um, Republican primary voters have been paying attention to the governor's race, which is why there's no undecided, almost none, like 1%, 2%.

[00:16:59]Very small undecided. And so, people have kicked the tires and they've learned enough about these two candidates. On top of that, Steve Hilton has gotten Trump's endorsement. And Steve Hilton has had a wave of fundraising success along with that. So Steve Hilton is sitting on a much bigger campaign war chest in his campaign. Not as good as the Democrats, but he's going to be able to communicate the Trump endorsement and I think that that's a gamecher in in a race like this. Um so when people say, "Should I wait till election day?" I don't think these numbers are going to shift much.

[00:17:32]I'm again I'm not trying to prejudice.

[00:17:35]It's important to remember >> pull it out, but >> it's it's important to remember that the wait till election day strategy uh invites the I got sick, I got in a car accident, something came up, my kid needed to come home from school, and suddenly the road of well-intentions becomes a vote not cast. Plus, and this matters, as long as you haven't voted, our good guys are wasting really their resources reminding you to vote. And so if you vote, you actually allow these candidates to repurpose their resources to the people that haven't voted. So there's lots of reasons to not wait till the last minute.

[00:18:10]>> And you get to track your ballot and verify it was counted. In the last election, 300,000 ballots were rejected because of a faulty signature or no signature on the outside of the envelope. And conservatives wait till the very end to send their mail-in ballots in or walk them into the polls.

[00:18:25]That puts your ballot at the highest risk of being discarded because we have data showing that a disproportionate number of Republican votes are discarded because of signature mismatches. You wonder what's going on there. So, I've said vote in the first week of the election, walk it into a polling dropbox, your polling center, or yes, even use the US mail. Don't trust them, but use them. But verify your ballot is received and counted by May 15 or May 20. And if it's not, then you at least know that you can go in and get a provisional ballot uh at one of the polling centers in the last two weeks of the election. If you wait till election day and they reject your ballot, there's no cure. There's no way to get a second ballot and to fix the problem. So, vote early. I I'm voting early. Uh Carl Carl has it correct. And this is again, we're talking about an extraordinarily difficult scenario uh uh that has it has happened before. Um Carl, as you'll recall, when uh Kla Harris decided that she wanted to run for the US Senate, um Republicans fractured the vote. I think Tom Delbicaro and Duff Sunheim among others ran and Loretta Sanchez, a Democratic congresswoman from Orange County, ended up going into the general election with Camala Harris and it was awful and it was terrible. And I can't tell you the number of phone calls I got from people saying, "Where's our Republican on the ballot?" And my response was, well, you know what? We we divvied it up. There were enough Republican votes to claim second place, but not we didn't get it because this scenario played out as the nightmare scenario. So, what happened in that US Senate primary is the poster child for what could happen if you don't you want to vote with your heart, but we're telling you, you got to vote with your head. You got to use your head when you cast this ballot because at the end of the day, you'll have no one else to blame but yourself if your choices are between Bera and Styer. Really bad.

[00:20:21]>> Well, John, we are up against our time.

[00:20:23]I appreciate all the work that you're doing. Again, uh check out the website soitmatter.com.

[00:20:30]Uh John is putting out amazing pieces each and every day, videos. really he gives you what the liberal media in California won't tell you about California news and politics. And remember, go to the website reformc california.org.

[00:20:44]Check out the voter guide. Share it with all your friends. Make sure that they don't get duped or tricked by fake Republican voter guides that are being sent out by Democrats to split our vote.

[00:20:55]In all of these races, we got to unite behind one fighter that can actually make the runoff so we can win in November. Thank you, John. And until next time, I'm Carl Deayo, chairman of Reform California and a California state representative. Thanks for watching and I hope you enjoyed this episode. But before you click away, please subscribe to this channel and click that notification button so you get updated when we post new episodes. Plus, like this video and share it with your friends so that we can help spread our message across the state.