Tropical Shift: Storm Potential in Gulf, Caribbean & Pacific

Added: 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]Hey, happy Friday everybody. Mark again here at  Weatherman Plus. Now, our weather pattern is about to get a little bit intense. We have our Central  American Gy that's about to get very active. Plus, we have some storms building up for today and  tomorrow bringing chances for high winds. Also, a small chance for tornadoes for tomorrow  while we get this storm coming across for New England bringing you some high winds  as well. Maybe an inch of snow. Not much, but the Central American Gy is about to bring  a big area of storms and it's about to rack up for a number of days showing to go out through  the Pacific, but also showing and trending. We could get a weak low pressure into the Gulf, bring  a lot of tropical moisture, but it's getting a lot of shear and a lot of dry air. So, it's hard for  it to form, but we really need to watch anything that's going into the Gulf. Still showing the  latest information is that westward shift. So, I have all the latest information in this  video, giving you the latest updates, not only what's going on with the tropics, what's  going on with our severe weather as well. And you can see the latest right here on the Vorticity  map showing a lot of rotation. So, we get the storm that's coming across for New England as we  go through later on tonight into tomorrow. This is going to bring some high winds and once again,  maybe an inch of snow. Highly doubtful. While we get these storms building across the West and the  North Central, bringing chances for high winds, also chances for tornadoes for tomorrow. It's a  small chance more likely will be a lot of high winds. And what is building around Central  American Gy is shifting still to the west, but with the weather pattern we're going into  is a chance for this to head northward while it tries to form something. But at the same time,  it's going to get hit with shear. It's going to get hit with the dry air, and it's not going  to have enough time to form anything. Still trying to form a low pressure right here into  the northern Gulf. Then shortly after that is going to build up even more and show more chances  of formation either into the western Caribbean.

[00:01:52]Central American gy again maybe coming northward  or going west into the Pacific. Either way, something stronger is forming right after this.  Now, the latest information on a chance for a tropical depression is actually showing a little  bit better news. You can see as you go into Sunday into Monday, it all pivots right there towards  Mexico, bringing a chance for formation. still showing a southern and western Gulf is where this  is trying to form and then shortly after that it will transition into the eastern Pacific. So the  window is a very small window but it has a chance.

[00:02:24]In fact you can see here in the latest chance for  a tropical development and all the way towards the ETH we need to watch over here for eastern  Pacific the southern Gulf and showing that will intensify as we go all the way towards the middle  of June showing a chance for multiple storms to form everybody and this does go further towards  the north but shortly after that if it does not create anything in this short time that it will  go back towards the eastern Pacific again. So there is a moment where everything will shift  further into the Gulf. This is where the Euro also the GEOS satellite showing a chance for  a storm to form. And you can see the latest information everybody. So we have some new data  out. You can see what our favorable environment showing the chance for all that tropical moisture  getting pulled out through the southeast as we go all the way towards the 2nd of June. But this  is where it builds up because right after that it starts coming in from the eastern Pacific  into the southern Gulf and it heads further north after that then starts getting involved with  our western Caribbean as well all the way towards the middle of June. Then it weakens down shortly  after that. So there is a moment for a week to 10 days where tropical systems can form showing  the latest information on our potential velocity anomaly that we have favorable environment moving  through and something could form very beginning of June. We actually have an outlook for that. Then  shortly after that twice something could form a little bit further towards the east everybody. So  we do need to watch this transition. Thankfully so far it's looking like the dust will keep  everything at bay. So the latest update from National Hurricane Center is what's in the  eastern Pacific showing a 0% chance in 48 hours, but a 60% chance within the next 7 days showing  this will weaken down as it goes further towards the west. Then we're going to get another area of  an outlook a little bit closer towards the gy. And you can see the latest here about a euro showing  as you go towards Tuesday into that Wednesday, you could get a system forming and it could  strengthen up for a quick moment towards that tropical depression, maybe even a strong tropical  depression. But with the shear and the dry air, it just don't have a lot of chances of formation  and it winnows down very quickly. You can also see in the ensembles that has a great chance of  this forming as we go into next week, maybe even a little bit stronger. maybe even see our firstname  storm in the Pacific. But you can see by all the ensembles that it gets hit with that shear. It  goes into an unfavorable environment and they all weaken it down where it would be no further  impacts, nothing towards Hawaii. You can also see on the Atlantic side as we go into next week.  This is where something else could form really close towards the Central American Gy, but we also  could get that low pressure towards the northern Gulf showing either by Florida or by Louisiana  and Texas. All of them showing it's going to run out of time. Nothing can really strengthen up.  Still showing that as the forecast is hitting a lot of shear from a subtropical jet and it's not  be able to form. Everybody still showing something very weak and very last minute. Then it'll be the  Central American Gy again trying to form up while we might get something later again coming in from  the Gulf. So we have two chances of something to form up not only for the Pacific also for the  Gulf in the Western Caribbean. Now as we go through Wednesday into Thursday showing that low  pressure still gets hit with a lot of shear. All the tropical moisture is off to the east. Still  it could bring some winds and some heavy flooding over here for Louisiana going into Mississippi.  And if that strengthens up anymore, I will keep you updated. But after this video, the next time  you will see me, God willing, will be on Sunday, everybody. And showing shortly after that, it's  going to get dragged around the southeast because of that front and maybe come back again towards  Florida afterwards. So, we definitely need to watch it just to make sure nothing tricky comes  out of it. It's a very weird weather pattern. And you see it starts forming up into the eastern  Pacific shortly after that, but then it starts bottling up right there by Mexico. And this  is where it tries to come further north once again shortly after we go by for next weekend. So  it's still a number of days away. We need to worry about anything like this showing this will be  something weak if it does form into the northern Gulf then maybe swing back around again. But you  can also see if that does happen that we have our subtropical jet getting in and we have a lot of  shear on all those thunderstorms where it really has a hard time to form because of all the shear  hitting on it. Plus with the dry air sahar and air layer from all this dust moving through for this  weekend and showing the same thing as a euro as we go into next week. It's going to try and bottle up  something right here about a Yucatan and try and spin up real quick. It won't have enough time.  It's going to be quick. Plus, it has a dry air in there. Plus, it's getting a lot of this shear  showing if anything it'll be a tropical depression the same thing on the GEOS satellite as a European  that we could get that tropical depression forming by Wednesday into the central Gulf and it will  head north or northwestward. So far, showing a lot of dry air, a lot of shear would stop it  from getting any stronger. It just be almost a group of disorganized thunderstorms. It'll have  a little organization to it, but very weak. I will keep you updated if this strengthens anymore with  this shear with the dry air coming through. Not expecting much more formation. If anything, it  could go backwards and start weakening down and breaking apart. Showing once again a very weak  low pressure into northern Gulf. Once again, maybe a tropical depression forming. You see how  it's a little bit weaker than yesterday. Then it swings around over here by the Atlantic and comes  back by Florida and just blows up into a big blob of disorganized thunderstorms while something else  forms up as we go through next week. This is where we have multiple chances of things to form. Now,  the GFS ensembles is still going crazy, showing a lot of chances for something weak at first,  then showing it could strengthen up last minute, and that was always the trend. However, with  all that shear coming from the subtropical jet, all that dry air from the Saharan air layer,  from this dust moving through, it's pretty highly unbelievable that something would form,  if anything that strong as well. Then showing right afterwards, we're going to get another  chance for something to come through. Remember, we have two chances for something to form  up. However, you can see with GFS showing that be something weak into the Southern Gulf,  not really the northern Gulf. So, it's going against a trend between the satellite and the  Euro. what they see. Then shortly after that, maybe something into the Eastern Pacific and then  into the western Caribbean again. Now remember my forecast when something always shows that it's  going to be past 10 days more than likely will not happen. When you look at the latest update  just come out with the GFS still showing the same thing. This is going to bottle up around Central  American Gy into the Pacific then maybe once we go past 10 days back into the Gulf again. Once  again, it's too far to even take that seriously.

[00:09:13]GFS is also the one that's showing any kind of  snow towards New England. So, how serious will you take that as well? Latest update with National  Hurricane Center. Still don't have any kind of formation for the next 7 days. I'm still expected  to see something into this region for an area of disturbance. And still showing by global tropics  is where something could form into the eastern Pacific. This is where we need to watch for  something coming back towards the southern Gulf, maybe even the western Gulf towards Mexico, maybe  even southern Texas. So on that scenario just all the way towards June 4th the amount of rainfall  coming for the next seven days coming through Central America to Yucatan all the way towards  Louisiana and Mississippi then shortly after that potentially coming onshore even more and wrapping  around the southeast still yet to be determined on that second part. So let's go through the severe  weather real quick everybody. We have chances for thunderstorms in any of these green areas. There's  no chances for tornadoes for today. It will be for wind and hail. And once again, chances for high  winds. Chances for 70 to 75 mph wind gusts. So, here's your cities and states at risk for the wind  threat for today. And the high winds is the white line on top, everybody. And our hail threat for  today as well. So, so far, here's your cities and states at risk for any hail for today. Showing  as we go through today, we're going to get some storms building up over here for Texas all the way  across the southeast, Tennessee, Kentucky Valley as well. as that goes all through the evening all  the way till tomorrow morning. Then it's going to build up for tomorrow over here for northern  Oklahoma going through Kansas. Bring chances for hail with that also some high winds. So be aware  of those storms. But you also can see that as you go through for this evening, you'll get this big  revolving system across New England. That's going to bring you some high winds as well. Then as  you go through for tomorrow from Wyoming going towards Montana as you get these cells spinning  around bringing high winds with that as well. And then it grows into South Dakota into Nebraska  bringing chances for some single supercells to come through and maybe do a quick spin up before  it turns into damaging winds. You also can see for tomorrow you get some storms coming across for the  southeast. They're rather weak storms, but you're still going to get some more thunderstorms across  the southeast for tomorrow just bringing more rainfall. But showing a lot of high winds is still  coming out of that. Plus, what's coming across for the northeast. So, showing chances for 50 and  60 mph wind gusts. 50 is in orange. 60 is in the red. Plus, you can see over here from Texas,  Oklahoma, Kansas going through the Dakotas all the way by Wyoming and Minnesota bringing 50 and  60 mph wind gusts with those storms as well. Now, if you go by GFS, you might get an inch of snow  over here for New Hampshire, and you might get some snow over here for Montana and western  Wyoming. When you compare this to the Euro, you can see how you're pretty much not getting any  snow over there for Vermont and New Hampshire. You might get an inch in the very highest elevations.  That's about it. And it's a lot less over here for the Rockies as well. But you can see for tomorrow,  you can have thunderstorms in any of this green area. You do have your threat for tornadoes.  It's a small area over here for South Dakota going through Nebraska. This could stretch into  eastern Wyoming as well. But so far, here's your cities and states at risk for a tornado threat for  tomorrow for Saturday. It is a low threat. We also have the winds and the hail in the same locations.  So, here's your cities and states at risk for any wind or hail for tomorrow, for Saturday, and it  will carry into Sunday as well. A big area with a lot of thunderstorms. Our severe weather will  be on the low end for chances for wind or hail in this marginal area. So here's just cities and  states at risk for any severe weather for Sunday.

[00:12:58]And you can see from National Weather Service,  thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Sunday from parts of the  lower to mid Missouri Valley into the central and northern plains. But thank you so much for  your time. Hope you have a very great weekend this weekend. I will see again for Sunday  morning, God willing, unless we have another update for tomorrow that will be needed not only  on the tropics, also for the severe weather. Now, if this storm does form into the northern  Gulf still, it would be something very weak, just a tropical depression more than likely,  bringing you the rainfall, bringing some winds more than likely with it as well. So, we'll keep  you updated on that for sure. And before I go, a quick word from our father, everybody.  Deuteronomy 32 1-4. This is Moses speaking.

[00:13:42]Give ear, O ye heavens, and I will speak. And  hear, O earth, the words of my mouth. My doctrine shall drop as the rain. My speech shall distill  as the dew, as a small rain upon the tender herb, and as the showers upon the grass, because  I will publish the name of the Lord. Ascribe ye greatness unto our God. He is the rock. His  work is perfect. For all his ways are judgment, a God of truth and without iniquity. Just and  right is he. Amen. Have a great weekend everybody.

[00:14:18]The tropics is still going as forecasted. So  far, not showing any big threats coming around the corner. This is all shifting towards the gy  towards the eastern Pacific, but we still need to watch for this as it could pull back. Thank  you for your time. Hope you have a very great weekend out there. And remember, above all things,  all glory does go to God our father in heaven, Yahweh. And I always hope he keeps you safe  every single day of your life and forever. Amen.

[00:14:55]Hallelujah. Amen. Have a great weekend, everybody.