Monday's 05/18/26 "Daily Brew":

Ajouté : 2026-05-19

[00:00:50]Now presenting Mr. Mike Coin, Governor's Hurricane Conference board member representing the National Weather Service.

[00:00:59]>> Good afternoon everyone. Our next award is the Tropical Meteorology Award. is presented to an individual or organization that has made outstanding or substantial contributions to the advance and knowledge application or understanding of the hurricane forecasting and warning process in the state of Florida.

[00:01:22]Since 2004, Mr. Mike has been educating people about trends, model runs, and everything else tropical weather related through his website.

[00:01:33]does not forecast, but his dedication and contributions to the citizens of Florida and providing tropical weather information in layman's terms, helping to explain what the forecast trends mean and how to follow all the extensive maps, charts, and graphs located on his website, Mike's weather page, aka spaghetti.com.

[00:01:54]The 2021 Tropical Meteorology Award goes to Mikeland of Mike's weather page.

[00:02:23]They don't understand Mike's got a friend,000 more across the land. If you want to know it first and you want to know it right and you want to have time your man it's going to tell you all about the wind and the rain if it's going to hide.

[00:03:02]box.

[00:03:22]All right. What's up?

[00:03:25]What's up?

[00:03:27]Anybody my age remember? What's up?

[00:03:33]Because of Budweiser is why I went into marketing because I absolutely loved their marketing back in the day. The frogs.

[00:03:42]Even Miller. Give me a light. No, that was Bud. Give me a light.

[00:03:48]Bud Light.

[00:03:50]Spuds McKenzie.

[00:03:55]We had uh tastes great last filling.

[00:04:00]Oh man, I had to tell you what we did this weekend cuz my arms hurt. We're going to talk about that in a little bit, but I can still barely pick my boy up, Louie.

[00:04:10]We'll bring Longo back Wednesday.

[00:04:12]Wednesday's Longo day. Don't let me forget. But he's over there cuddled on his bed. Louie came over here and put his paws up and I could not say no to Louis.

[00:04:21]It's funny. As soon as I started talking, we go live on the Brew Crew at 9.

[00:04:27]So, we start at 9:00 a.m. over there.

[00:04:29]And soon as he heard me start talking, he come walking over, put his paws up.

[00:04:34]He knew it was time.

[00:04:38]Technically Apex. No, not officially hurricane season, but it is hurricane season. What?

[00:04:44]I'm going to go into that. It is, but it isn't.

[00:04:49]What's up, Mr. Bill? How's old Cubbies doing?

[00:04:54]Um, what's up? What's up, Mr. Bill? What's up, Richard Rhyr? James, hello. How's out over the east coast doing? Might have a little morning showers. That's what you all do this with this flow pattern, right? A little more wet in the mornings over there. A little more wet in the evenings over here.

[00:05:13]Already 82 up there and golf, Steve.

[00:05:16]That's a little toasty for uh 8:24 Central Daylight Time, right?

[00:05:26]>> Good morning. Uh Morgan, you got your presentation done? Yes. Did you do it yet or you just ready to do it? Morgan Stewart, well, hope you're doing good. We're going to talk weather. This is Mike Mike Page brought to you by our good friends at ABC Fine W Spirits. I'm going be there tomorrow. We're going to talk about that. We got our big barrel, private barrel selection with Knob Creek. We're going to be signing bottles tomorrow.

[00:05:53]Bourbon that I selected.

[00:05:57]It was a signed bottle. How about that?

[00:05:59]So, how was your late CMI poker run there, Bill?

[00:06:07]Hurricane season did start officially.

[00:06:08]All this official junk. What happens on June 1st? Nothing.

[00:06:14]Let's all get ready for June 1st. And then we just like we look like that scene in Narcos where we're just sitting on a bench. We all look like Louis June 1st.

[00:06:28]I don't like the dang countdown stuff. I want to talk about a hurricane season in a minute though. Rays are looking great, Mr. Drew.

[00:06:35]>> Orioles Gator. That's okay.

[00:06:39]>> Rays are bound to lose. We might as well lose to a fan.

[00:06:44]Frank Diaz, what a great concept that is. Always be cocktailing. I mean, always be celebrating, right, Louie?

[00:06:53]Morning Reed. How you doing?

[00:06:55]>> So, we do have a special event tomorrow in St. Petersburg, Florida, Fourth Street. You can come see Louie.

[00:07:03]You can come see Longo tomorrow, 5 to 7:00 p.m.

[00:07:09]ABC and James Beam flew me up to Louisville last year and we did a private barrel selection. I think it's like 120 plus proof.

[00:07:23]Very rare to get anything that high octane. So, we'll be signing bottles of that tomorrow.

[00:07:30]specially selected for MJP and ABC Fine Wine and Spirits. So, I hope you can come see the dogs. We're going to be giving out stickers and koozies and pick up your limited edition Knob Creek private barrel selection. So, here's some of my pictures from my trip.

[00:07:53]Anyway, it was such an amazing trip.

[00:07:54]Kind of had that perfect vibe up there.

[00:07:56]It was kind of chilly. That was last year. But I just wanted to share a couple of those pictures. It was a great trip and uh fascinating. You know, they pulled out the seven barrels for us to pick from and they were all so different. There's the one that we picked. I signed it.

[00:08:17]And here's our group that flew up there.

[00:08:19]We had a mixture of ABC and Jim Beam folks there that uh brought me up there.

[00:08:24]So, that was an experience. Hope to see you all there tomorrow. will be a good time. Also, next week, so we got some crazy things coming up.

[00:08:33]>> Next week, we're heading to the GF Coast Jam. There's my good buddy Rendy and Mark.

[00:08:40]Always meeting thousands and thousands of y'all. This year is an amazing lineup. Riley Green, Chris Stapleton, two of my favorites.

[00:08:51]Keith Urban and Post Malone. Four days, four nights, nothing but music. Panama City Beach. So, yes, we're going back.

[00:08:57]We're leaving Tuesday. We'll have it.

[00:08:59]We'll have a live this week Wednesday, Friday, and Monday.

[00:09:04]And then if there's anything cooking, we'll do a live up there, but it ain't nothing cooking. I ain't going to worry about it because nobody listens when there's no weather. So, we're doing that. We're excited. Good times. Hope to see everybody. I always meet so many fans up there. All because Florida, Northern Gulf remembers a lot of hurricanes, especially Michael and uh a lot of y'all sort of following the page back then. So, I appreciate that.

[00:09:30]So, of course, uh GF Coast Jam sponsored by Jim Beam. It's a Jim Beam kind of day. So, we're looking forward to that.

[00:09:39]Seeing everybody up there for sure. I'll be helping them with the weather. So, my arm hurts. You know where my arm hurts?

[00:09:44]I got to show you this story.

[00:09:47]This is where we were yesterday go-karting indoors. Last time I went there, this is the most craziest thing.

[00:09:59]2016. I thought I was going to have to buy a new license. They're like, "Oh, no. We keep these all in the system."

[00:10:03]So, they did the print out at the end. I thought I did like I figured Emily's boyfriend Dom beat us. You know, he he did really good. I'm just going to say it right there. He did pretty good. I got in trouble for making comments. He did okay.

[00:10:20]And Emily did really good. I caught up to Emily at the end. I couldn't get around her. She was only 3/10 slower than my best lap. So, but we we finished like middle pack. But man, about it's 16 laps and about 10 laps. I was feeling my 52 year old old age.

[00:10:36]I was huffing and puffing. I'm like, I can't I couldn't even feel my brake. I don't know if I was hitting the brake.

[00:10:40]I'm like, I don't know what I'm doing.

[00:10:41]I'm just like tense as heck, you know?

[00:10:43]And I'm like, so that was what we did.

[00:10:48]Anybody do that? Morning, Maxine from Maxine Mood. What's up, Kate from Raleigh, North Carolina? What's up, Jamie from Clemens, North Carolina? Good to see y'all.

[00:10:57]Wish you could make it, too. Steve, sunny Tallahassee. Deborah, how's it going up there? Tammy Harvey, good morning.

[00:11:04]Billy from Wisconsin. Man, I used to drive up there on all the back roads in the summertime. It's so fun. All the uh snowmobile trails are there and you see signs. That'd be so fun to go around uh snowmobile chasing for sure.

[00:11:22]James, I don't know, man. There's one section I kept plowing. I needed to hit the brakes a little harder.

[00:11:31]It was fun. It was good time. Good time.

[00:11:34]But anyway, there's Mike's page. By the way, let's talk about the weather a little bit. Not much talk about. Here's a current radar. We got a little rain.

[00:11:42]There's a big high pressure. Look, big high pressure. Everything's spinning this way, helping fuel these big storms up there, but pretty much blocking everything else. So, very dry day across the southeast. A little bit of rain. We're going to have rain again here, probably more here, not as much as yesterday, but we're already getting those incoming rains off the coast. So, so normal if there is a normal, but the high pressure dipped a little farther south, so it's kind of swinging in a little more dry air. But anyway, that's what we got. That's what I'm going the current radar.

[00:12:20]So, yeah, this is AI. Cannot lie. But I did my morning walk today. Holy cow. If you noticed, we were in uh Pasco this week in the roads, man. We had to wash our cars twice. I'm walking by the preserve this morning here in Palmar.

[00:12:36]Must have been a a hatching of love bugs because I had to shut my mouth. They were like hitting my head and I'm like, "Oh god, I'm walking like this and like it's the true story." That's That's what it felt like. That's where AI is fun.

[00:12:55]What's up, Mark? Daytona. We love Daytona. Zephr Hills, Dwayne. We were just up there for Sheriff Nooco's charity shootout.

[00:13:09]Um 300 cars, Josh, that's awesome. Yeah, the rain was very spotty. We're I got a couple graphics. So, yeah, hurricane season's ahead. We're going to talk about hurricane season here in a couple minutes. Got in inspiration to do a post about it. We are not We are officially unofficially in hurricane season. Put it to you that way. Pergus season's ahead.

[00:13:30]Read the signs.

[00:13:32]Signs. Signs everywhere. A sign.

[00:13:39]I need a full body net. Oh god, it was awful.

[00:13:44]I I I All right. And then last but not least, I just want to share yesterday, you know, we didn't know what to do. Sundays are like, you know, we like to plan. I'm not a sit around house kind of guy. And Julie wanted to meet some friends. Uh Tracy and Jeff, we went up to their house, which is fine, but I was thinking about going on the boat and I'm like, "Ah man, you know, what do I do? What do I do?" So I, you know, then I forgot Emily had softball practice at 11:00 and I'm like, "I know what I'm going to do.

[00:14:09]We're going to go get coffee at 10:00.

[00:14:12]I'm going to walk." Got coffee. We sat in chairs like old people and watched uh softball practice. And then I went to see my dad. We watched the start of the Rays game together.

[00:14:23]And then we went to our friend's house and had fish that he caught the day before. Perfect day watching clouds, watching them rise, watching them dissipate and then watching you. It's funny how little things in life, right? Enjoy the day.

[00:14:40]And of course the rays. I did find my bush light apple. That was on Saturday.

[00:14:47]I just had to share that because everybody knows I've been posting it. We couldn't find it anywhere. So, we had to Uber eat eat it. And you know what? It's not really for me. There's Brandy and Mark from Panel's podcast. There's Phil, my buddy. There's Brandon.

[00:15:01]Her um Harrison's Har where's Harrison?

[00:15:03]Harrison's in the video. He's our new video guy. So, it was a fun day. There's Dom. Emily Hid. She didn't want to be in the picture. About a $10 Amazon light sign. They're really cool.

[00:15:14]I don't know if we can put a spray on Mark. Uh but God, they they hatch and they're little baby ones. They're not yet in love. You know what I mean?

[00:15:24]So, the bush light apple. Then I calied it and it was like 130 I think I read and I'm like, h I'll stick to regular bush. But I found the bush light. So, there you go.

[00:15:34]And it was a great day even though we lost. So, go go follow Mark from Panel's podcast if you live in Penelis County.

[00:15:39]He does some really good stuff. Great guy.

[00:15:45]But here's our rainfall yesterday. I love this uh co cs site. I don't know how to say it. Coco something, but it's all a private network, public network of uh weather stations around the south.

[00:15:56]Any the whole country actually. You can see it here in my page, Mike's Twitter page. If you go down here, it's always hard to find this stuff. But once you know where it's at, I ain't ever going to move it because then I'll never be able to find it again.

[00:16:08]Um, right here. See this page right here? C A HSA tables. and you click on it and you can set date date date ranges. You can um look at yesterday.

[00:16:23]This just gives you a synopsis. The pill little colors are an area of two to 8 in. So you can kind of see where the hot spots where the tornadoes were yesterday with the rain. So it's really fascinating I think to look at this and you can set day ranges and pretty cool.

[00:16:37]That's how I get this stuff. So you can see and if you really zoom in see somebody had 4 in here probably an isolated little supercell you know Penelis County didn't get much 0.1 2 problem with these fast moving thunderstorms is they don't stick around and they dissipate really fast so let me close that out. All right, so that was our rainfall totals. A little more on the west central side up into Georgia. Nothing huge. Today is the repeat pattern. Here you go. There's that flow I talked about. Hey, Mike Hood.

[00:17:13]Oh, you did it. There. I don't know your name there, but um I love it. That's a great site. I love it. Morning Beach Crystal.

[00:17:24]Morning Ian.

[00:17:26]Dust is heavy in Jamaica. Yes, it's crazy. I think we showed that last um Friday. You all had a a plume. We'll look at it here in a second.

[00:17:37]So, there's your high. You know, the reason South Florida and East Coast gets a little bit of rain is moisture from the Atlantic and then the seab breeze collides and we get um a little more extra fuel.

[00:17:51]But other than that, Carolina's are bone dry, Atlanta's dry.

[00:17:56]Alabama's dry.

[00:17:58]This is today. Rainfall today. So, there's that. I do want to talk about this real quick, though. Big severe weather outbreak expected today. High level four risk. Um, again, yesterday there was a lot of tornadoes. We have a double hatch intensity level in the black there.

[00:18:19]So, there's your tornadoes. We got a long stretch tomorrow. You talk about a long stretch from Texas to the Great Lakes. You could get some severe weather tomorrow. That's a lot of folks covered for Tuesday.

[00:18:31]You know where I'll be tomorrow?

[00:18:34]Down at St. Pete sell signing Knob Creek bottles.

[00:18:43]There we go. But that's tomorrow. Then on uh Wednesday, it kind of spreads off to the northeast a little bit.

[00:18:51]kind of peters out a little bit on Wednesday. That's it for a while.

[00:18:56]Tropical update. Why did I post this earlier earlier? Let's look at daily rains real quick and then we'll talk about tropical update. Just kind of give everybody where my brain's at because we're kind of done talking about big weather events right now. There's really not nothing showing. I'm actually talking with my buddy Mark about rains for G Coast Jam. And the good news is there's nothing tropical coming and there's no stalling systems. Those you look for patterns that could be stressful.

[00:19:31]Dale, I showed you a picture from the cruise last year.

[00:19:38]Dale, did you have a good time at the race? Here's rainfall today. 24-hour rainfall today.

[00:19:45]T tomorrow. Tuesday. Same pattern.

[00:19:49]Florida. Little bit of morning rains.

[00:19:52]Little more heavy west coast rains.

[00:19:57]Here's rainfall Tuesday. Here's Wednesday.

[00:20:02]This front's kind of pushing things away. And our high pressure sets up a little different spot and kind of misses Florida for Wednesday. So, a little drier on Wednesday.

[00:20:12]Thursday, there's that front pushing down. Finally going to get some rains to the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.

[00:20:20]So there's Wednesday, Thursday kind of flattens out for Friday, Saturday, Sunday. So no huge changes other than just a little wiggle and wobble.

[00:20:32]So looks like it's you know not depends on what meteorologist you listen to. One says it's rainy season begun. The other says it hasn't. So, I don't know, but we do see increased signs of moisture from uh the Atlantic high.

[00:20:53]And it's always kind of fun to look at it from a Pwatt value. You can kind of see the flow. Daytime heating definitely helps. Rising air, seabbze collisions, and all that good stuff that happens. But if you look at the precipal water map here for the next several days across Florida, you can see this moisture just kind of follow the flow. Greens is juicy, yellow's really juicy, red is extra juicy, blue is kind of dry. So green kind of wet, yellow really wet, red really, really wet. Willy willy.

[00:21:30]And here's pattern kind of like through the week. You can just see some swinging moisture wrapping around.

[00:21:40]So, we got some heavier total showing up on the weekend. This is Sunday, actually.

[00:21:46]And I always confirm going to go look at National Weather Service just for fun. I bet you they show higher rain chances for Sunday next week.

[00:21:57]60% already. See that? See? 60%. So that's kind of where I, you know, Wednesday's very low.

[00:22:06]Wednesday, where's Wednesday? 30% Wednesday. See, I thought Wednesday and Thursday would be the least amount. And Friday, so 30, 20, 10, then we're back to the weekend. So weekend could be kind of wet here in across Florida.

[00:22:21]All right, hurricane season.

[00:22:24]That makes sense. Tornado. Yes, there was a tornado. Oh, Reed. Yeah. Oh, I saw the reed tornado. Oh my goodness.

[00:22:32]Then he fired one of his um uh rockets into there, right? King Tide.

[00:22:42]I did.

[00:22:44]I don't know how high or low it was.

[00:22:47]I know they pumped um um they pumped it up as a danger, but I don't know. There was somebody that asked me they heard a bunch of cars were strained on the Courtney Campbell, but I couldn't find confirmation of that. But we were under a king tide starting last Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

[00:23:08]I don't know how bad it was.

[00:23:11]Yeah, there's a cap.

[00:23:14]It's just available energy. It's just it's really it's just moisture. It's just lack of moisture more than anything.

[00:23:22]Like yesterday, we had a lot of storms forming, but it just they fizzle out.

[00:23:26]They just don't have the they don't have the juice mainly. They're just runs out of a available moisture, you know. And I have some PE watt or some that's I do have a a button down here. I think I have a where do I have it? In the rain section.

[00:23:41]Kind of fascinating looking at Pwatt right here.

[00:23:45]Anything under under two is a hit or miss once you get um I mean, let me rephrase that. Two and up are almost guaranteed uh moisture. These are inches basically that they measure um in the atmosphere. So the more juicy juicy heavier water basically in the atmosphere That's why we have a little more rain chances. This is now, but um let's go forward here. How do we go forward? That's negative. This one's not set up yet.

[00:24:32]Haven't clicked on this in a long time, so they might have changed some of it.

[00:24:37]But your current flow just kind of tells you obviously where it's drier. an amount of moisture in the air and that's just your available and you can look at humidity and due points and you can feel it yesterday too man we had a lot of moisture in the air early on in the day and you can see the clouds rising about noon time and and um building they call building as far as the um cap that's a That's something I've still learned a lot more on. Cap's a little bit more with uh severe weather. It's sometimes the cap's there, but it's not nothing happens to.

[00:25:22]It's kind of like cape cap is two different things. But it's such a hard thing to predict.

[00:25:32]There's been SPC forecasts that there wasn't even a tornado sometimes, but I guess I look at it originally as just the amount of water vapor in the air, moisture, moisture flow.

[00:25:53]I was like like looking at mid-level moisture maps and uh lower level water vapor. This is lower lower level water vapor maps, but I really wanted to talk hurricanes right now, but we can still There's a little bit of rain on the other coast.

[00:26:09]All right, we'll dive into that in a little bit. My brain was thinking hurricanes. So, all right, so here's the deal. I had a bunch of haters this morning. I was really surprised because I've been talking about these NHC uh updates. So May 15th every year now they they start issuing updates at uh 2:00 8:00 2:00 8:00 and I count that down. I let everybody know, hey, we're going to start seeing NHC updates. We're going to start seeing NHC updates. We're going to see NHC updates. So uh I started doing tropical updates starting on five see thought I did 5:15 maybe not. I don't know. And I told everybody I'm going to do a daily update. Why? Because there's two two reasons why. One this goes out 15 days. We've already got this going into June. Okay, so that technically is hurricane season.

[00:26:56]Hurricane season's June 1st. The other thing is historically we've had systems in May. And matter of fact, that's the next graphic I'm going to do. I think we've had a system in 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23. We've had a system in May. So yeah, tropics can happen in May.

[00:27:12]So people want to know. Third, there's a lot of people posting like I do, and there's a lot of long range models and and moisture maps that show potential tropics in May. So, people want to come to my page and say, "What is Mike saying?" If I don't say anything, they think I'm letting them down because why isn't Mike talking about it? So, I'm going to talk about tropics if there's no tropics. Because if I don't talk about no tropics, then they're going to think I'm missing something and that guy might be right or that girl.

[00:27:42]So, people see these long range forecasts, they see some hyping going on, especially on TikTok. You know, uh there's one GFS out of 20 that shows a hurricane hitting Tampa already. That one people get worried. They're like, "What does Mike say?" Well, that's why I do a tropical update now because a historically we've had a lot of systems in May.

[00:28:04]It's just a fact, you know.

[00:28:12]Bertha, that was a second storm. I had two systems in May in 2020. So, it happens. They're not bad. They're usually The only hurricane that ever showed up in on May on this map was in 1908, 1908. So, usually they're just weak tropical systems.

[00:28:32]But yeah, that's why we talk about it.

[00:28:34]People want to know, they come to the page and I'm going to talk about it. So, not haters, just they don't understand.

[00:28:41]I I get it. Why are you talking about the hurricane season when it's not June 1st? Well, I hate to date June 1st. The NHC is updating now four times a day.

[00:28:49]So, technically, in my opinion, is the NHC is working. They're open for business. We're getting these updates right there. That one's at May 18th today. This morning, we're going to get one at 2 p.m. We're going to get one at 8:00 p.m.

[00:29:04]You can listen to the tropical update.

[00:29:06]currently >> the tropical weather outlook >> issued at 8:09 a.m.

[00:29:11]>> for the North Atlantic. So again, >> not seeing anything good news, right?

[00:29:16]There's been a lot of years in the past we've saw systems in May. This is another graphic that I pull up a lot of times. Sometimes it's right, more it's wrong, but it's just another tool that you look at. It comes out once a week.

[00:29:31]They're showing the Pacific, possibly uh starting something up at the end of May.

[00:29:36]Their season's officially started May 15th. So, yeah, they usually get going.

[00:29:41]The waters are a little warmer than average out there. So, they're that it would make sense that they would start early. Uh honestly, they should have already, but they didn't. I'm not I'm just I am going to talk weather this year with re realities and not speculations until there's cold facts because historically the Pacific Shard should have already had a system by now because it's so hot with El Nino. So we just take it one day at a time. But long range looking there's nothing on this map. I look at a lot of maps. So look at these maps. These are your ensemble blimp of the Euro and not showing any areas, especially if you go to tropical storm.

[00:30:32]Only thing you're seeing is in the Pacific. So there's nothing to talk about.

[00:30:36]So until there's something to talk about, but you might see a lot of models like this. So there's some models out there people showing increased precipitation in the first part of June.

[00:30:45]Every model run changes like this one now isn't but a couple you know a couple days ago it was showing increased moisture there. It doesn't necessarily mean tropics. You still have a lot of wind shear this time of year that's happening.

[00:30:59]Uh some of the maps I couldn't even find one today but there was one map showing lowering pressures in this area. But now I'm looking at uh this EPS which is an ensemble map of the Euro and I don't see it. So, until there's something out there, I'm not going to um talk about because you're just going to be guessing and every model run is going to be different until there's something solid.

[00:31:23]Okay, that's just I um you know, I I'm hoping the goal of of is when you run across a post, a page, chatter, I get excited like everybody else. I'll see a post on X and I'm like, "Oh, wait. What are they seeing that I'm not seeing?" You know, and I'll go do my own homework, you know, and I'm like, "I don't see it yet." So, I'm not going to post it. You know, I've learned over the years I, you know, if I'm going to post something, it's one I believe that there's a legitimate chance we're going to see something to talk about. Okay? Until that, I'm not going to post the the uh, you know, the guess of, oh, we might see something, but then there's really not a lot of support. You know, I mean, the joke in my opinion is that you can you could say there's going to be something to watch in the Caribbean 10 days from now and say it every day.

[00:32:14]Guess what? You're going to be right eventually. And then that person's going to say, "I told you. I told you. I told you." There's such a race of Mets that want to be first.

[00:32:24]And now I believe it's quality over anything else. So it's it's not it shouldn't be a race. who said who said, "I told you so. I told you so." Report the facts and don't get everybody riled up on every every small possibility that pops up on one on one map. You know, historically, yeah, this, you know, early season stuff can happen. It's happened in June. Barrel was in June. Barrel was a really bad hurricane in June. Actually began in over in about off of Africa.

[00:33:02]So yeah, early season systems can happen, but until we see something, we're not going to talk about it. So yeah, there you go. Zero rain to Fort Myers, John. Well, some people did a little bit.

[00:33:25]Skyway is closed.

[00:33:28]I had her crash.

[00:33:31]I was walking and talking. I didn't talk today. I'm only doing that a few times a day. Um I was watching a video on YouTube about Camille.

[00:33:41]Any y'all got Camille stories? But that was fascinating. It was one of the first hurricanes that they had radar that they could really use. It was lowest pressure that they've ever, you know, measured in an aircraft. It was the stories of going doortodoor, the surge, just incredible historical storm.

[00:34:02]And uh listen, I'm halfway through. It's an hour long. So 30 minutes tomorrow, we'll finish it out.

[00:34:12]Yeah. So questions on El Nino. I'm sure I've talked a lot about it. It just uh it's a flip of the coin in my opinion with tropics. Uh usually we have less names, but 23 we had more names and El Nino and 23 was kind of strong. It was over one degree. Um, so man, it's I I'm just so cautious anymore, man. I mean, last year I even believed that we're going to have a year like 24 because of the same looking conditions until cold fronts came in and parked, you know? So, I mean, I I think the pre-season hype is just out of control. Um, you just never know, you know. You never know.

[00:34:54]Water temperatures are running a little bit above um Swam Dog. Yeah, I could do that for you.

[00:35:00]It's really good. Um hurricane. It's about a 33 minute video on YouTube.

[00:35:10]But yeah, I mean, we can look at water temperatures. You know, you know, there was a 60-day stretch in 22.

[00:35:18]22 was not an El Nino year and we had a 60-day stretch of no-name storms in July and August and guess what?

[00:35:25]Ian happened and Nicole happened.

[00:35:29]Everybody thought the season was dead.

[00:35:30]It was over.

[00:35:34]You know, Hurricane Aaron last year actually formed over uh 86 84 86 degrees. No, 84 degree water.

[00:35:45]The most fascinating research that I've ever done.

[00:35:50]Um, because it was a cat five overnight and here's my post. Let me see if I can pull the graphic up.

[00:36:06]Yeah, we all talk about water temps, water temps, water temps, water temps.

[00:36:09]But then, you know, I remind people, guess what? Um, last year the Gulf was hot.

[00:36:17]Did we have any systems in the Gulf last year? Nope.

[00:36:21]So, it takes a lot more than water.

[00:36:26]Here's my graphic. Takes a lot more than water temperatures.

[00:36:35]Here we go. So, this Hurricane Aaron last year, the most fascinating thing ever. Hurricane Aaron went from a tropical storm to like a cat five in 30 hours.

[00:36:49]Um, it was a four over 28 degrees 20 29 degrees Celsius 84 degrees.

[00:37:00]These are real data points. Okay, the bottom is the OC. We always talk about the Caribbean with, you know, rocket fuel and the waters off the Caribbean there and the Bahamas or the Bahamas and Florida's uh, you know, western Atlantic is like rocket fuel. The dark oranges and the yellows and the oranges and the reds are the the deep hot water that really helps storms magnify. That's why we have these explosive storms in the Gulf because we have these loop currents, loopdies. We'll talk about that stuff all the time, but the Gulf typically is rapid intensification because of this warm water. So, the ocean content on the bottom, it was kind of normal. I mean, it wasn't like out as, you know, crazy warm water.

[00:37:48]It was just kind of warm water. It wasn't nothing spectacular.

[00:37:54]Not like you see in the Caribbean, but yet it went from a four to a five. And if you look at the sea surface temperatures, the actual track of the storm, okay, it was over 20 um 29° C waters.

[00:38:12]The hot waters was the Gulf and uh the darker red.

[00:38:17]So, it's not always about the water temperature. I mean, it's crazy the upper upper dynamics, you know, all your highs and lows and wind shears and dust and there's so many factors. I just, you know, so if anybody, you know, if everybody tells you, "Oh, man, the Keys are almost 90°." Well, guess what? It was hot last year, right? Did we didn't have any systems in the Gulf last year? Water temps does not mean we're going to have bad hurricanes.

[00:38:47]Just you just never know. Now, most of these storms have been were predicted at 10 days out. So, it ain't like they're just going to surprise us. I mean, the reality is most of these storms, Otis was the only one in the Pacific that just no model caught. And uh um I can't remember where did it hit.

[00:39:09]Rio day. I don't even remember where it hit, but Otis was the name of a specific storm. just not one model predicted it to be more than a tropical storm and it went to cat five. So it could happen, but most all these storms, you know, we have a a week plus of of outlooks, there's enough model data that says, "Oh, this thing might be intensifying."

[00:39:29]You know, there's the upper air pattern is something to study. You ever notice when a storm comes to to uh Florida, let's just use Florida for example, but when we have a cold front coming down and you have a storm developing down here and you have this counterclockwise flow pattern, well, you usually get a front coming down, a jetream. Well, that jetream ends up fueling into the storm. And what you'll end up getting is an actual presentation of a storm that looks like this with I can't even remember now what they look like. I I was trying to draw it. Oh my god. That's Irma. You know what I'm saying?

[00:40:17]Like this like you know classic. Um Oh, I almost did it.

[00:40:29]Anyway, the jetream helps.

[00:40:35]That's when we get this hurricane heat that I always talk about out ahead of one too.

[00:40:41]All that helps ventilate a system. It helps fuel the system, bringing down potential energy, merging that energy, clearing out, ventilating, all this stuff.

[00:40:52]But last year, guess what? Nobody predicted last year. Not one model predicted that we would have a front come down in August and park for August and September. Not.

[00:41:03]So we had three fives and a four last year record. Three cat fives and a cat four.

[00:41:17]But guess what? None of them hit the US.

[00:41:20]So everybody thought the season was a bust. Right, Ian? We have Ian down there in Jamaica. So he he'll disagree that the season was a bust.

[00:41:30]22.

[00:41:33]Only two systems hit the US that year.

[00:41:35]Ian and Nicole. Wasn't a bust. So everybody wants to how many names we're going to get. Who cares? It's only the ones that matter, right? The ones that hit land.

[00:41:48]But I don't know. Hope you got some good information about it. Otis. That's right. Who was talking about Otis for me? Mike Hood. What was the um what did it hit? What was Aapoco? That's right. Thank you. I remember that. Wasn't that crazy though?

[00:42:04]Not one model predicted that. They did kind of at the end a couple days before, but man. So, you watch everything like a hawk. You know, there's a little bit of juice out here. Doesn't mean anything.

[00:42:17]Um sometimes you get these mid-level lows that look like they're spinning and stuff. Uh the old school things I do, I always look at the wind maps, kind of see. Oh, what is that over there? So you can just see it's nothing all the winds.

[00:42:28]There's a little bump right there, upper level low.

[00:42:38]This is 500 millibar. So it's it's an upper level low. 250 might even show up more. There it is. So I think these are tuts, right? Anyway, um but it's an upper level low. There's Florida.

[00:42:50]So, nothing tropical, upper level low.

[00:42:52]But you can see it on the juice map like, "Oh, what's that over there?" And it's got a little spin to it, but it's upper level low. And there's so much wind shear that does hardly ever become anything.

[00:43:05]Then this time of year though, if we were to get something, it would end up being an old cold front um that hung around down here.

[00:43:14]But you go to, you know, go to trusty old uh tropical tidbits, you know, and you can click on these and you can get low pressure, high pressure. There's a high pressure popped in. There's really just nothing.

[00:43:26]You can see a little bit of lowering pressures over there, but not with all that windshar. Here's kind of what's being hyped up a little bit is the lowering pressures first part of June.

[00:43:45]But then we go look at the long range maps. Okay. So lowering pressure doesn't mean development. It just means lowering pressures. So you know there are signs of a little bit of juice increased first week of June indic.

[00:44:05]But not seeing any models yet. Talk about development. There's some of that long range modeling on some of that juice, just increased juice.

[00:44:17]Um, but you look at the long range maps here. We can look at spaghetti models.

[00:44:22]We can look at AI.

[00:44:28]I was not a fan of AI last year with um Euro 15day AI not showing one out of 51 I think. I don't know how many AI ensembles we have, but um let's see here. But there's just no sign yet of anything to even talk about.

[00:44:48]EPS spaghetti 15 days out. There's one or two out of 51. These are weak low pressure areas. You look up here at the pressure readings. Green is a thousand plus. That's not even a tropical storm.

[00:45:01]So even though there's one green spaghetti there, it ain't nothing. So really nothing. Google Deep Mine last year wasn't the greatest at predicting uh formation, but we'll keep an eye on it because it did a really good predicting tracks. Um, and I don't think it goes out that far anyways. I think it only goes out Oh, it goes 15 days. So, the deep mind is not even one member.

[00:45:26]So, you kind of see how I do things. I just don't see anything. Not yet.

[00:45:33]So lowering pressures don't mean any more than maybe rain. And we'll we'll dive into that Wednesday more. But there, you know, again, uh first part of the month, it seems like we could see a little more rain for a few days. Some sort of juice comes across there.

[00:45:46]Tropical wave. Who knows? Tropical waves are normal. We got tons of them. Usually we got How many we got now? I wonder.

[00:45:55]Oh, we got three of them out there right now. So we got one here, one here, one here. But also this time of year, your monsunal trough, intertropolis convergence zone is so far south that all these waves end up usually going into South America and crossing over to the Pacific. So it's not until these this line historically pops up a little bit more north that we start to worry about these tropical waves. But and you can see that on the wind map.

[00:46:22]It very clear sometimes where it's at.

[00:46:25]You can see way down here. Way down there. Holy moly.

[00:46:31]That's where the winds from the south meet the winds from the north. But typically, it's going to be just south of the Cape Verde Islands. And that's when you start to worry about these winds spinning together and spitting off tropical systems.

[00:46:45]Enough of that. Made it to 10:00.

[00:46:47]Rainbow man.

[00:46:52]Yeah, Michael was during an El Nino year dust. just for you, Ian.

[00:47:02]Um, all right. Model Lab. Let's take a look here. NASA dust in the wind.

[00:47:13]There's your dust now. I see it. There it is. Right there. Look at that. So, we're getting live reports from Jamaica.

[00:47:19]That blob right there is real dust.

[00:47:25]And it looks like it's gonna hang around.

[00:47:34]Let's see. So, it'll be gone here by tomorrow. There's another plume coming in later in the week. Might reach you.

[00:47:44]Big one coming. Look at that one.

[00:47:47]Holy cow. The 25th of May.

[00:47:50]It's really going to get you in Jamaica.

[00:47:52]It looks like in about a week plus that's going to be probably midweek next week. Another big plume. But that's dust. It's normal this time of year.

[00:48:03]Can't believe the media hasn't started talking about it. But it ends up being uh breaking news.

[00:48:13]This is very normal. April, May, June.

[00:48:16]Very normal.

[00:48:19]That's why we don't really look out there for storms this time of year.

[00:48:26]But like I said, the the the the rush to be first and detect a system can absolutely make you numb if you analyze every little detail. So that's what we do on the daily brew.

[00:48:47]So until I see anything, I ain't going to you. If we had a tropical wave down here in the middle of this dust, there ain't no way in the world it's going to survive. That's just dry air.

[00:49:01]But now if we had one develop like right here possibly and it was running a little higher, it doesn't have the dust. So even with dust seasons, you still have brakes and everything rides with the dust. So as the dust slides this way, so do the waves almost the same exact speed because the winds are blowing the dust. The winds are blowing the waves.

[00:49:27]But then if we get a lot of wind shear, the waves run into that upper level winds and it just never has a chance to develop. You might be able to see the winds here too. I didn't even look. But we'll start to see signs of El Nino pretty soon with the uh upper level jetream down there. Oh, there kind of is. See the two jet streams? It's running a little higher right now, but we basically have two jet streams right now.

[00:49:52]Usually the subtropical jet drops a little bit more. it starts to be more of this area. But that's basically what a double jet stream looks like.

[00:50:02]There's your main polar jet. It's driving all storms today.

[00:50:08]I I would suspect some of this subtropical jets combining with the um polar jet creating a lot of extra instability today.

[00:50:23]And this is the same jet that had our little tornado that I was chasing last week. It was coming across the state fueling uh lift and little chaos.

[00:50:37]Anyway, thank you, Miss Bobby. How you doing?

[00:50:40]Oh, I lost my Facebook chat. What happened to it? Oh, I read a thing here.

[00:50:43]So, here we go. All right. So, we're going to sign off. We're going to go to Thank you, Tammy. Have a great day. I got to get you your umbrella. Gez and crackers. One of these days, we'll get it figured out. Um, I haven't sold any though, so don't worry, you'll always have one.

[00:50:57]96 in Fort Myers yesterday. Wow. How do you want to check out the um water temperatures down in Keys?

[00:51:06]Cuz we're going to the Keys on the MP cruise.

[00:51:10]And then we go to Kamel or I can't remember one of the two. One of the two.

[00:51:13]Where are we going? Cosml or Cancun? I think we're going to I don't know.

[00:51:17]Doesn't matter. We jump in the water.

[00:51:22]I don't care what temperature it is, but I like it better when it's warmer. So, the water temp is 85. Let's see.

[00:51:28]Yesterday, let's see what it was yesterday.

[00:51:34]Let's see. Did they go in the range? Hold on a minute. Ah, 2005. Damn it.

[00:51:56]So, yep. See, yesterday is 17. So, it got up to 89.1 degrees in the Keys yesterday for the water temperature.

[00:52:06]89.

[00:52:14]Oh, Keys are even hotter a little bit.

[00:52:15]Look at that. 86.9 currently.

[00:52:23]water temperature in Key West yesterday. Did it reach 100?

[00:52:30]What the hell's going on here? This is I'm on 2018. How'd that happen?

[00:52:41]Oh, they didn't have records over there.

[00:52:43]All right, so let's go back.

[00:52:49]I don't if we have yesterday or not.

[00:52:53]It has yesterday. So yesterday got down to 874 at the key that station there. So anyway, it's getting hot. All right.

[00:53:01]Hey, we'll be back on Wednesday and uh thanks so much. Hope plan on tomorrow 4th Street ABC here in St. Petersburg. 5 to 7. We're doing the um but private barrel selection of Knob Creek here. I'll be signing bottles.

[00:53:26]My buddy Paul just said that it's $69 for a 24 pack of Bush Light Apple at this gas station he just went to.

[00:53:35]Is that overpriced? Is that price gouging?

[00:53:40]It's Is that normal?

[00:53:50]$69 for a 24 pack of cans. Is that even possible?

[00:53:56]Water straits get hot 100%. Definitely.

[00:54:00]But shallow water.

[00:54:02]Even even um um here at home I think we're up to 80s finally. Clear water goes happens fast. Water temps up to 8.

[00:54:15]It was 84 yesterday. Clearwater beach. I mean that's fast. It's still May, but um but not too long ago, man. It was in the 50s.

[00:54:30]Let's see when it was in the 50s last time.

[00:54:34]Let's see if we can do a range here.

[00:54:36]Let's do a range.

[00:54:40]And let's see if we can do a range. All right. So, we'll do January 16th.

[00:54:55]How cold was it this year? I think last year we did the graphic.

[00:55:09]I'm getting a circle.

[00:55:18]Hello. Hello.

[00:55:24]It's trying information data overload.

[00:55:32]Let's try February. Maybe it's too much.

[00:55:34]Why is it taking forever?

[00:55:41]Well, let's do March.

[00:55:45]Oh, hell. It's doing six minute intervals. We don't care about We don't want to do six minute intervals. That's why it's taking so long. All right. So, let's go back to um let's go back to January and then go back to now.

[00:56:05]We'll do 1 hour intervals plot. Here we go.

[00:56:12]So, let's see. It was 54.

[00:56:16]No, here we go. Oh, it hit 49. It was 49 degrees in Clearwater Beach February 1st.

[00:56:26]49.

[00:56:29]Now it's up to 84 2.

[00:56:39]You imagine dipping in the water of 49 degrees off the Clear Water coast?

[00:56:47]Nope.

[00:56:49]Not me. That's like dangerous.

[00:56:54]All right. Well, we've been a long time.

[00:56:55]We'll see you all Wednesday. Okay.

[00:56:56]Wednesday, Friday this week, and then Monday next week on Memorial Day. Then we got a wacky schedule for the next couple weeks after that. Then we're pretty much back to normal through the hurricane season. We did it. We survived all the ups and downs of