New Security Concepts in a Changing World | NATO PA's Visit

[00:00:01]President of the NATO parliamentary assembly.

[00:00:04]Welcome to Özdemir Bayraktar National Technology Center.

[00:00:08]What KIZILELMA does could be likened to what you know a machine that beat Kasparov 20 years back does.

[00:00:21]Kasparov was the grand chess master.

[00:00:24]Maybe he trained for 40 years to became so but a machine the size of a refrigerator beat Kasparov and after that day my cell phone beats Kasparov.

[00:00:37]So the match doesn't make any sense.

[00:00:40]So here you don't have any man inside the aircraft.

[00:00:43]It can do anything that a manned fighter can do and do more because it doesn't have the man and it's much cheaper.

[00:00:50]So it's like a match against Kasparov against the machine.

[00:00:54]We don't need training time.

[00:00:56]You need to train a pilot maybe 10 years to became a fighter pilot and he has a lot to lose.

[00:01:02]He has a family.

[00:01:04]You know the human element is the most expensive item actually.

[00:01:08]Could you please elaborate a little more on the fighter jet—the autonomous fighter jet?

[00:01:12]How does it compare today with manned fighter jets?

[00:01:19]Because it's not yet considered as an option for the majority of the air forces.

[00:01:25]How long do you think it will take to be an option?

[00:01:29]If you look at the preparations like armies in the world, institutions in the world, prepare for what happened the last time, but you need to prepare for what’s going to happen the next time.

[00:01:40]Nobody could foresee the success of Bayraktar TB2. Nobody.

[00:01:45]And then nobody could foresee the success of FPVs.

[00:01:49]No one. No military analyst, no military, you know, ranking officer.

[00:01:54]It's only those who drive the change that have control over it. So now, you know, the whole Top Gun —final Top Gun movie was about what again the... the power of the ankle is going to, you know, beat the machine.

[00:02:13]No, it's not because he machine doesn’t is like a monster.

[00:02:17]So here, they're the game changer of the future and we shouldn't compare them, to for example, you know, first generation, second generation, fourth generation, fifth generation or sixth generation aircraft.

[00:02:30]They're not the seventh generation or they're not a generation unmanned fighter jets.

[00:02:34]They're a different species. These are robots.

[00:02:37]Like some countries are talking about, like US is talking about sixth generation fighter jet.

[00:02:43]That’s a manned platform, This is an unmanned platform, doesn't have a generation.

[00:02:48]It's a robot. It's a monster.

[00:02:50]It's very dangerous.

[00:02:52]It's cheap.

[00:02:54]You can train it. You don't — Like 90% of the flights, all flights, jet fighter flights are what?

[00:03:02]Training flights.

[00:03:04]So imagine you have 10 aircrafts over the life cycle nine of them are being used for training.

[00:03:11]So you only have one aircraft left to fight.

[00:03:15]Whereas here you don't need to train because computer doesn't need it.

[00:03:19]It's just software. If once it's optimized and it's continuously being optimized that's it.

[00:03:25]You can copy the capability right away.

[00:03:28]It's microseconds to copy the capability software update.

[00:03:32]So, when it's going to come, that's a good question.

[00:03:36]It's going to take a long time, but it will come once the capacity is demonstrated in a war and it will be.

[00:03:49]So, we are the frontier; probably we're going to demonstrate it to the world.

[00:03:54]Where do you see your competences in intercepting and how do you see the market developing intercepting drones that are attacking your country?

[00:04:04]That's a very important question.

[00:04:08]Intercepting is much harder, very hard especially, you know, inexpensive you know, kamikaze drones and the economy in terms of intercepting side is very disadvantageous is always going to be much more expensive to intercept.

[00:04:36]Like imagine there is a... You know, look at the recent attacks like Russia-Ukraine war.

[00:04:44]Sometimes they send a thousand units.

[00:04:47]So, to intercept that is much more expensive most of the time.

[00:04:53]You can't intercept all of them there's always a saturation limit.

[00:04:58]And so, where do we come here?

[00:05:02]Either total destruction for both sides or we stop fighting.

[00:05:07]And I think what we should understand, there is no end to destruction.

[00:05:12]You know, if we're going to destroy ourselves, we have a lot of weapons.

[00:05:15]The world has a lot of weapons.

[00:05:17]So, we should understand that I think and it doesn't make sense to build so much weapons.

[00:05:25]We need to... It's much cheaper to be wise and you know, to try to build a peaceful world.

[00:05:36]I'm a roboticist and UAV manufacturer myself.

[00:05:40]Why would I say something like this?

[00:05:42]You could say.

[00:05:44]But the problem is the imbalance in the world.

[00:05:47]You know, some countries spend more than the whole, you know, globe on building weapons of destruction.

[00:05:58]When it comes to defending yourself, it's extremely hard.

[00:06:01]You have, you know, you almost have no option.

[00:06:05]So, there's constant imbalance.

[00:06:08]So, intercepting is extremely hard Unfortunately, in this day and age, the technology, you cannot stop it from spreading and it's all online.

[00:06:23]And to counter it, you need to live in, you know, fences and cages almost.

[00:06:30]So that's not very smart.

[00:06:32]It's always much smarter to stop the wars.

[00:06:35]But the world —if you look at the world now I mean, right, you know, almost several hundred kilometers away there's a genocide happening and there's no institution in the world to stop that.

[00:06:51]The institutions are over, basically the rules are over.

[00:06:54]So if it goes on like this humanity, just like second world war, is going to destroy itself because it has the means.

[00:07:05]How how do you imagine this technology in 10-20 years, because maybe we are just starting and I think warfare is completely related to this new technology in the future.

[00:07:20]So maybe you are the one for imagine helping us, imagine how this technology will be in 10-20 years.

[00:07:32]Yes, that's a very important question.

[00:07:36]First of all, it's very hard to imagine because we are living in exponential times.

[00:07:40]Everything is changing.

[00:07:42]At 30 years, that's hard to imagine.

[00:07:44]5 years, yes, 10 years, I think we can do, 30, I think is very hard.

[00:07:51]And I hope, you know, we—for example Baykar we always pursued as a technology company how can we be more in the civilian side.

[00:08:05]You know, predominantly in the civilian side.

[00:08:08]Because it's always much better to build technology you know, not for weapons but for imagine to cure to human sicknesses or human needs.

[00:08:26]But unfortunately the world we live in for example, pushes us to the defense side even more.

[00:08:34]Now defense industry is booming.

[00:08:37]Baykar's revenues are much higher.

[00:08:39]It's going to—probably going to be like that.

[00:08:43]It's hard to imagine what's going to happen in 30 years, because it's extremely hard —as I said— to stop the proliferation as well.

[00:08:54]In terms of terror it's very dangerous I think.

[00:08:59]As a researcher 20 years back we knew this.

[00:09:01]you know, UAVs are extremely, you know, dangerous in terms of, for example, terror and also in terms of their very little or very capable in terms of defense.

[00:09:18]But right now I think we are at a different level like he capability of AI in a sense.

[00:09:30]Everything is called AI now.

[00:09:32]t's not AI, it's advanced algorithms.

[00:09:34]We had these algorithms, now they are miniaturaturized actually just because the computer speaks doesn't mean it's you know, it understands anything.

[00:09:43]It doesn't understand anything.

[00:09:45]So now everything is miniaturaturized and it's everywhere. It's online.

[00:09:49]So it's hard to imagine it's going to go for 30 years.

[00:09:56]But 10 years I can say drones, UAVs, they're going to grow.

[00:10:03]You have all the sizes.

[00:10:05]KIZILELMA for example will —There's like 15,000 fighters in the world— fighter jets.

[00:10:11]Unmanned fighters are going to replace all of them over time in 30 years probably.

[00:10:16]And that's going to be big as well.

[00:10:18]It's a big revolution as well in combat aviation.

[00:10:21]And I think I hope, you know, one day we basically bring back the world order together and say "look, weapons are not good, you know."

[00:10:33]I hope we do that one day but now is not the time unfortunately.

[00:10:38]All the institutions, all the rules are being broken all of them every single one of them.