Israel-UAE Alliance Reshapes Gulf Power Balance - w/ Journalist Sami Hamdi

追加: 2026-04-29

[00:00:04]Sammy, pleasure to speak to you again.

[00:00:06]We spoke in the early days of the war.

[00:00:07]Um, so there's a lot to discuss to get your thoughts on how things are progressing. Let's start with, you know, before we kind of dig into the latest developments. Yesterday was a pretty big day, especially for the UAE, but let's get your general thoughts on the war, how it went relative to your expectations and um where it's at today, whether you think it is over or it's just a pause.

[00:00:28]I think the reality is that not even those involved in the war know what's going to happen next. I don't think Trump or the Iranians know what's going to happen next. I think that Trump doesn't have a strategy for how to get out of it. And the Iranians don't have a strategy for how to maximize their gains in this war. By gains, what I mean is everybody expected Iran to be or rather the Trump and the Israelis expected Iran to roll over as a result of their attack and as a result of the bombing campaign that took place that Iran would surrender very quickly in the way that Venezuela did. But I think that given that Iran has dug its heels in and essentially demonstrated that America does not exactly have the capabilities or willingness to deploy all of its capabilities to get rid of the Iranians or embark on regime change, the Iranians are trying to figure out how do we convert this resilience into something tangible at the negotiating table. And here is where they're finding problems because Trump is effectively trying to pitch some sort of victory. By which he says, "Okay, even if I didn't achieve anything from this war, I didn't allow Iran to advance a step further." Which is why he keeps repeating that I made the Iranians agree to no enrichment, which they were already offering before according to Gmeni foreign minister.

[00:01:37]Which is why he keeps saying we're going to open the HMA straight, which was already open before the war. Trump effectively trying to force the Iranians into a reset position to what the status quo was before the war. The challenge the Iranians have is after all of that destruction and devastation inside Iran from that bombing campaign, they can't simply walk away with nothing. There has to be something that should be given to them. Either in terms of unfreezing billions of dollars of assets so they can spend that money to rebuild Iran or the lifting of sanctions. And these are two things that Trump seems very disincined to give. And now it's a situation of who blinks first. Do the Iranians say we're really tired. We need to rebuild. We really need the money.

[00:02:16]were being squeezed by this blockade that's been imposed by the US and the Horm Strait. And so, Mr. Trump, we're ready to agree to the reset position before the war. Or does Trump blink and say, "Hang on a second. The Americans are struggling at the gas at the gas pumps. The midterm elections is coming up. Republicans are calling me telling me they might lose the elections. Iran, let's come up with a deal. I'll agree to unfreeze some assets and lift some sanctions and we can both go home and say that this is a victory." The problem is while they're waiting for the other side to blink, the rest of the world is beginning to feel the pinch of that choking of the strait of the increase in oil and gas prices or their summer holidays being put into disarray as a result of flights being cancelled and people being uncertain about the jet fuel. this it's becoming a sort of a cold war that nobody knows exactly how it gets beyond this because the parties negotiating don't know how to get beyond this either.

[00:03:13]>> I want to go back to a point you said about Iran needs something out of this war. They have something they have the control of the shadows and they're going to charge a toll on there. I think it's it's almost no longer being disputed right now. It's a matter of how much the toll is going to be and how long is it going to be for. Trump even tried to get a percentage out of it. He may still try to get that. So when you say Iran got nothing out of the war, they got something pretty damn huge.

[00:03:38]>> I think that for the Iranians, they wouldn't consider it as huge as perhaps we would consider it. I think the Iranians certainly exerting influence over that horm strait and trying to reframe their toll to a sort of premium to help ships to navigate that straight.

[00:03:52]I think that's certainly one thing, but the aims of the Iranians are absolutely clear and they were stated in the article that Jawad Varif, the former Iranian foreign minister, wrote in the foreign affairs magazine where he essentially stated what Iran's conditions were, which was in his words that we won in terms of the military conflict. The Americans and the Israelis failed to bring about regime change.

[00:04:11]They failed to make Iran bow. Now, in exchange for peace, what the Iranians want is an unfreezing of the assets and the lifting of sanctions. These two are vitally important for the Iranians to be able to rebuild domestically. Whatever toll they get from the Horm Strait will not be sufficient to make up for what they need in order to build domestically. Not only that, while you have the toll being imposed on the Horm Strait itself, although the American blockade is porous and there are ships going through that American blockade, the reality is that the other Gulf states themselves, this is an untenable status quo for them. Saudis, Imiratis, and these others will not accept Iran having control of the whole strait in that manner. Which is why we're seeing some of those GO states lobbying the Americans, telling them you need to find a solution here. We can't have the Iranians dominating in that way for the reason Iran doesn't consider this as much of a win is because to suffice with this win means war will likely come.

[00:05:05]There's no way the states will tolerate the Iranian control. What the Iranians want is free access on the everybody can access it. just give me my money that's frozen and lift those wretched sanctions.

[00:05:15]>> They've never made that clear in their demands. They said we will control the shredder of hummus and we want the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of assets. They haven't said all right we'll give up the control of the shadow of hummus in return for unfreezing of assets and sanctions relief because that seems like a pretty pretty fair deal that Trump may accept because he gets concessions on the nuclear deal which Iran's already willing to do. opening up the shamus which was already open. So there's no big loss, embarrassing loss for him there. And the lifting of sanctions, you can easily portray as I'm doing business with a new regime. Always says new regime. But I don't think Iran's proposed this from what I understand.

[00:05:46]>> I think the Iranians in reality, even when they're talking to the Pakistanis, when Asamir, the chief of staff, the ruler of Pakistan, went to Thran to speak with them, the Iranians made it clear. And even when they sat with Jared Kushner, Witkoff and JD Vance, the Iranians will consider JD Vance to be the American representative and Kushner and Witkov to be the Israeli representatives. When the Iranians were negotiating with the Israelis and and the Americans, they were certainly on the table saying that look, listen, the the Iranians brought 72 nuclear experts with them to the negotiating table, expecting that they were going to negotiate a comprehensive deal. When they got to the negotiating table, they found that there was constant phone calls between the American delegation and between Trump, suggesting that they weren't sure exactly what deal they were supposed to make, suggesting they had arrived at the negotiating table to tell the Iranians, "We go back to what we were before." The re the reason I I think the Iranians, my opinion is they've made it categorically clear that they want the unfreezing of funds and the lifting of sanctions. The problem that the Americans have with these demands is that while they may seem reasonable for Donald Trump, every headline in every paper will say that Iran won and America lost, every headline will say that Iran managed to achieve on the battlefield what it struggled to achieve at the negotiating table when it was negotiating with the Americans. While the Americans failed to achieve what they wanted militarily and on the negotiating table and were forced to give to the Iranians, Trump is concerned that every Tucker Carlson podcast and every Candace Owens podcast and every Matt Walsh podcast and all of the New York Times and the Washington Post and the German Chancellor who yesterday came out and said that the US essentially are are losing to that the Iranians have humiliated the Americans.

[00:07:27]Donald Trump and I think what was interesting is there was a report I can't remember was it Axios or somebody else who said that Trump is exploring what would Iran's reaction be if he declared a unilateral victory what he means is what will the world say what Trump wants is this and this is the problem that the Iranians are having Trump wants a deal that he can parade to the world and the world will turn around and say Mr. president. Now we get it.

[00:07:51]Now we understand why you went to war.

[00:07:53]Now we understand why hit the Iranians.

[00:07:55]We're so sorry that we doubted you. You affirmed American power and truly you are a great president. Which is why he did that tweet representing himself as Jesus in in in that in that tweet. The problem is the Iranians don't want to give him that. If I had to put it very briefly, Mario, I'd say that Trump wants the headline. Iran wants the details and Trump doesn't know what details he wants. And Iran doesn't want to give Trump the headline without the details.

[00:08:18]Iran wants a comprehensive deal. Trump just wants people to celebrate him. And that's why we're in this stalemate.

[00:08:24]We're in this lock step whereby now the Saudis are trying to gather the Gulf States and say to them, "What position should we take if there is a deal that we're not consulted on? If a war comes back and we're hit again and the UAE yesterday effectively said to the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman that look, we don't you guys don't have the ability to influence these proceedings.

[00:08:44]I've already got my ties with the Israelis. I'm going to leave OPEC. I'm going to talk to the Americans myself and I'm going to try to find a way out of this for the entire region because I will not tolerate the Iranians having that stray. The point that I'm saying here is the Iranians are clear on what they want. It's too much of an ask for the Americans because it essentially means a defeat for the Americans and Trump doesn't want people to say he's been defeated.

[00:09:08]>> What you're saying is leading to a salemate for me just makes the deal a lot easier. If you're saying Trump just wants a political win to be able to say, "I won." And Iran wants actual concessions that help their economy, which is crumbling right now. The their local currency just hit a new all-time low, I think, just in the last few days.

[00:09:25]It should be a pretty easy deal because Iran gives them gives Trump something like nuclear concessions. They were willing to give gives Trump something that he can consider a win because Trump's always said it's about their nuclear program. It's about their nuclear program. That was the most common narrative coming out of the US.

[00:09:38]And Trump, I'm I'm repeating the same things I've said before, can give him sanctions. You said no. But every headline will say the US lost. But Trump will say no. I've I've gotten a better deal on the nuclear program than Obama.

[00:09:49]I've saved the world from potential nuclear conflict or Iran wiping out hundreds of thousands of people with nuclear bombs. So that could be portrayed as a win by the US. And you're talking about the Gulf. Will the Gulf get a win as well so they don't keep busting busting Trump's balls by being able to open up the shuz?

[00:10:06]>> I think in an ideal world that is what would happen. I think what would actually happen is that Me Sha would correctly come out and say that the Americans have been defeated by the Iranians.

[00:10:18]>> He's gonna say that anyway, man. He's going to say that all the people that will say the US is defeated will say it no matter what. No matter what concessions Trump will get, they'll say the US was defeated. And vice versa.

[00:10:27]There's people saying right now the US is winning. When any analyst will tell you, even someone that's very pro- US will tell you the US lost in a a horrible way more than anyone would have imagined considering the munitions, the amount of the Iran's ability to continue striking the region, the control of the state of Hamuz, the nuclear program. Iran saying two days ago they won't even have the nuclear program on the table anymore. They'll discuss it at a later date. It just seems that instead of Iran giving Trump something he can call a win, again, call a win. doesn't have to be a strategic win. They're just trying to humiliate him back after him trying to humiliate him humiliate them for these last two months. And that's my my my concern.

[00:11:07]>> If we go a bit deeper than that. So, one of the things that's really interesting about the Iranians approach to the negotiations is the insistence that JD Vance be present. And we mentioned earlier that it's to do with this idea that the Iranians consider Kushner Witkov as Israeli representatives. I think that the Iranians are also >> Sorry, you said that before. Do you mean it? Do you really think they consider them Israeli representatives? I know there's the European.

[00:11:29]>> I think the Iranian I think the Iranians and and the Gulf diplomats consider Kushner and Witkov more representing the Israeli interest over the American interest. There was a article on the Reuters. I think it was Reuters that said in a presence of British diplomats and these others the sentiment from the Kushner and Witoff was they were more interested in Israel stance than the American stance. So the >> no they said they said sorry Sammy they said that Israeli assets the guardian article that EU diplomats I think British diplomats said that Kushner Witkoff were seen more as Israeli assets that was in the early days of the war.

[00:11:59]Yeah >> and and that's and that's from a British diplomat that's not even from from the Gulf or so the Iranians are saying okay the Kushner and Witkov might complicate the deal for me because Israel doesn't want the deal. This is the Iranian perspective. Ignore whether it's true or not for a second. The Iranians believe that the Israelis don't want the deal and the Israelis want a war and the Israelis want to go after and enex southern Lebanon and they want to go and attack these different places. So the Iranians want JD Vance present because they believe that JD Vance is somebody that they can talk to and that the American position will be reflected by JD Vance which then begs the question why Trump doesn't send JD Vance. He sent him in the beginning and then afterwards indicated that Kushner and Wkov would go but Vance couldn't go because of security reasons. Then it was okay Iranians vance can go. But by then the Iranians decided we don't want to talk to the Americans in this phase because we want to talk to Pakistanis. The the point here being is even if the scenario you created is the ideal scenario in which Trump has his victory, the Iranians have their victory, the Gulf have the straight of Hormuz opened again and everybody decides to adapt according to make sure it doesn't happen again.

[00:13:02]The issue for the Iranians is how do we make sure that the Israelis don't get the Americans to attack us again? How do we make sure? Because the Iranians didn't expect the Americans to hit them.

[00:13:12]And bear in mind, a lot of the Gulf countries, they weren't expecting war either. They thought there's no way the Israelis will be able to get Trump to attack the Iranians, especially given that the negotiations were already advancing. Mario, when we get to a position where the Iranians are offering Trump what they did not offer Obama, which is that 0% enrichment, that means negotiations were quite serious. The Iranians feel like they got stabbed in the back, and so do the Gulf States. So the Iranians are saying, "Okay, Trump is telling me he wants to make a deal, but I need a guarantee the Israelis won't ruin it for me, and no one is giving me the guarantee that the Israelis won't ruin it." And the Israelis are openly saying, "We don't want this deal with the Iranians. We we believe Iran is the enemy, and we will do what we need to do in order to protect our security." Even the Lebanon ceasefire, Trump tried to give a you were talking about concession. Trump gave a concession to the Iranians by forcing a Lebanon ceasefire, however, temporarily, even on the headline. Turns out the the Israelis were were going to attack and the Iranians were saying we're not going to negotiate unless there's a ceasefire in Lebanon. Trump goes in, packages it as a start of a normalization of ties between Lebanon and the Israelis. First talks in 30 years, you know, between the Israelis and between the Lebanese. Everybody wins. Hezbollah say their resistance got the ceasefire. Iran says its resistance got the ceasefire. Israelis say because we attacked Lebanon, we frightened them into talking to us. Trump says, "I'm the one who got the ceasefire. I brought about peace. I It was a win for everybody like the way scenario that you presented it." That Lebanese ceasefire, the the president of Lebanon began those negotiations. And who decides to go and attack southern Lebanon? It's the Israelis. fearing what the ceasefire might mean more broadly. The fact that Trump is unable to prevent the Israelis from attacking southern Lebanon means the Iranians are concerned that even if we take Trump at his word and that he wants a deal, even if we sign on the document that Trump wants, even if we agree on the nuclear and and the like, it's very possible in the next month or two months, the Israelis will attack us again. And the UAE, what they have done is UAE have adapted to this. UAE have said, "Listen, Trump can say one thing, the Israelis can say another. Let me align with the Israelis. So let me see if I can convince Somali land to give an Israeli base on the Red Sea so that when war breaks out again, we're in a better position to counter the Houthis, to counter the Iranians. Let me align myself closer with the Israelis and exchange technology on the Iron Dome so that I can protect the UAE. Think about it, Mario. The UEE's position today is not one that is preparing for peace.

[00:15:37]It's one that's preparing in that even if there is a deal, I don't want to get caught out again. So I want to decide my own quotota. I want to decide my own security. I'm not interested in a regional position anymore because you guys are preparing for peace while I'm preparing for what the Israelis will do, which is war. If you're the Iranians, Mario, this is the point I'm saying. If you're the Iranians, is there any guarantee really that Trump can give you that you won't be attacked again? And now that you've squeezed the hummus straight and now that you're in a let's say the momentum is on your side, even if you haven't necessarily achieved the sanctions and the like, now you have China considering giving you more weapons to protect yourself. Now you have the Russians looking at you and saying, "Oh my god, Iran, you're actually better than we expected. You actually made the Americans buckle.

[00:16:21]Listen, take some more anti-air missiles and stuff and the like, and we'll help."

[00:16:26]The reality is that this stalemate and this cold war means that the spoilers find it very easy to spoil a deal. At the crux of it is, if I had to finish on this point, the crux of it is the Americans are still not willing to reign in the Israelis to abide by any agreement. And that is why I think the Iranians are deeply concerned in that I can make a deal with the Americans, but as long as the Israelis are on the table, so long as Kushner and Witkov are on the table, I can't be certain that you're not going to hit me again. And the Arab states are now deciding, and I promise this is where I finish on this particular point.

[00:17:02]>> No, take your time.

[00:17:03]>> The Arab states are trying to figure out what do we do? Do we The Kataris are saying, let's make good relations with the Iranians. Al Jazzer and their media is really pushing the Iranian narrative and you know putting in the hearts of the Arabs this sort of Iranian heroism that the Iranians have stood against the Americans. Kataris are saying please Iran next time you attack please don't hit us. Hit the others but just don't touch us. The UAE is saying forget the Iranians. I'm going with the Israelis and you know shalom Tel Aviv and I'm going to be with you the whole way through. Saudi Arabia bin Salman has no idea what to do. Do I trust Erdogan and go and develop a security infrastructure with him when I beefed with him for so long? Do I uh help get Pakistan to protect me, but Pakistan doesn't want to fight the Iranians, so maybe I can't rely too much on the Pakistanis. UAE meantime is frustrating me in Yemen. The Kataris in the meantime are already getting closer to the Iranians. And Trump is pressuring me to normalize ties by giving a speech, saying he has to kiss my backside and he has to now stop making excuses and he has to normalize.

[00:18:07]How do we adapt? And the point is all of them are adapting in the possibility that America is no longer in control. So we can't take Washington at its word.

[00:18:15]What will the Israelis do? And the reality is that that is the complication in these negotiations.

[00:18:23]>> Is Israel's really do Iran see Israel the same way they've seen it before this war? They've always seen Israel as if we get into a war with Israel, they'll cause a lot of destruction. But if it's us against Israel, we'll be fine because we could just keep firing missiles at them until we overwhelmed the air defense system. But the issue is that if if we overwhelm the air defense system, the US will get involved and that's what we want to try to avoid. That was Iran's position until this war. That's was that was their position in the 12-day war in this war.

[00:18:52]Iran now knows that first the US cannot completely destroy them. But more importantly, the US will probably never get into a similar war with Iran again, seeing the damage it has done to their munition stockpiles, to um not achieving their objectives, to the global economy.

[00:19:06]So, doesn't that put Israel Iran in a place where they're not scared of Israel like they were before? the the kind of the the the the balance of power I've been saying this for a while has shifted away from Israel where Iran doesn't mind if Israel attacks them again because they know they can cause a lot of damage in Iran and they know the US would not get involved as they did previously. So I think it's the calculation right now after this was going to be very different on the Iranian side. I I just didn't think that they'd be as worried from Israel as they were beforehand.

[00:19:33]>> I think this is >> played their Israel played their US card and it failed.

[00:19:40]I think that the premise of that argument supposes that America has put everything that it's willing to put into this war and we've seen everything that America is going to put into it. We've seen the maxim from the Americans. The Gulf States are thinking rather differently in that if a war takes place again, will there be a ground offensive?

[00:20:02]What I fear the most, Mario, in this entire war is actually not the Israelis or the like. What I fear is that the Arabs will come to a conclusion that they will participate in a grand offensive against the Iranians. What I fear is >> that if Trump doesn't find a deal, Trump is with the the the the unknown conundrum here is Trump. If Trump really feels like he's going to lose, Trump might actually escalate even further.

[00:20:22]And we've seen it in the way that he got the ceasefire in Lebanon, then kept the blockade in the Hormos. And the Iranians went, "Yeah, what?" And then, you know, came out and said, "We're opening, then we're closing again." And then Trump said, "You know what? I'm going to keep that blockade. letting some Chinese ships go through. Let's suppose that Trump decides to go back to war that he says, you know what, the Iranians are needed to feel a bit more pain. I'm close to getting the deal that I want.

[00:20:45]They themselves have not been able to achieve their own aims in lifting the sanctions. If I bomb them for another 2, three, four weeks, the way Hexath is proposing, maybe then they'll come back to negotiating table and they'll accept my reset button when they attack again.

[00:21:00]We already saw countries like the UAE propose or the suggestions in the media was that they might participate in a ground offensive. If the UAE participate, what do the Qataris do?

[00:21:11]Because the Qataris don't want to be caught blindsided. If the UAE are going to do something, it's like when Katar in 96 open ties with the Israelis and Qatar got benefits from it. UAE won upqatar and said, "I'm going to normalize ties with the Israelis." So sudden was on the back foot. Then the Saudis said, "We'll entertain normalization." So they got up here. If the UAE go and join the ground offensive, Qatar may find some sort of involvement in it. Saudi bin Salman might say to himself, "Let me participate so I don't suffer the burn from the Americans." But in some capacity, then you suddenly have the beginnings of a potential World War II.

[00:21:45]The the reason why I think some people are underestimating how tense the situation is is because an unresolved conflict where you've slaughtered so many leaders in Iran means that you've created not a leadership vacuum but you've forced Iranian leaders to reconsider how they approach this conflict. They're clearly not begging you for a deal. The Iranians have said they're not begging you for a deal. The Iranians are saying I'd rather fight and I'd rather one leader, two leader, three leader gets killed than bow my head and surrender to the Americans. You have the Israelis who are saying this is Amalch time. This is the golden opportunity to expand our borders into a next more territory. And Netanyahu is saying I have Bennett and Ya Laid now breathing down my neck to ou me in an election. I know traditionally that if I take land or next land I win an election. So let me try and get some parts of southern Lebanon or some parts of the West Bank. So Israelis are also on an escalation path. The point that I'm saying here is what I fear is that if there is no if no one blinks between Trump and the Iranians and the situation stays as it is, it's untenable. It can't continue this way. And if we go back to war again and the Arabs decide to join the Israelis and the Americans against the Iranians and Saudi media, whenever you read it, they always assert that Iran is the greater and more immediate threat than the Israelis. you read, you read some of these others. The debate in Saudi Arabia and we all know that in certain countries opinions can't be expressed unless the government allows those opinions to be expressed. But in any case, the point that I'm saying is if the Arabs decide to join in, that's a completely different game altogether.

[00:23:20]And that's why I go back to what I said.

[00:23:22]The premise of your question was that Americans have done everything that they're willing to do against Iran. I'm quietly concerned that maybe Trump might try one more escalation to go above and beyond which might include seizing a couple of islands which the the Imiratis want to take the TM islands that they say the Iranians have colonized or the Kar island. They might make a go of it.

[00:23:45]The Israelis might argue and say go ahead, don't worry about it. You know, we'll handle the fallout afterwards.

[00:23:51]What do you do when the oil price gets or or the oil supply becomes so disrupted that Saudi turns around and says you know what let's just go and hit the Iranians like let's just let's let's try and let's go for it. Let's send Pakistani troops under our security pact. Let's send Pakistani troops to go in and go and fight the Iranians instead on our behalf and give another 10 billion to the army general aim in order to keep him sweet and go in and go and fight. Mario, what do you do then? And this is why I argue that your scenario is the ideal scenario and in my opinion the correct scenario where everybody takes the victory. Trump gets his deal, Iran gets the lifting of some sanctions, Trump says it's a business deal and the Arabs have the straight of Hormuz open.

[00:24:30]I don't think that's what the UAE and the Israelis would consider to be the best case scenario.

[00:24:37]>> I understand the UAE's moving closer and closer to Israel. Uh there was a report a couple of days ago that Israel sent troops uh to set up the Iron Dome system during the war uh to defend from Iranian missiles and drones. I had the former adviser to the president on the show yesterday and um he was very vocal in support of the US. He barely called the war a mistake even though I felt he thought it was a mistake. And he said Mario the blame is squarely on Iran. And I don't blame them because they were attacked the most by Iran. He said to me, I don't know why. I understand we work with Israel. were getting closer to Israel, but Bahrain was getting closer to Israel. Saudi another and other Gulf of countries, they weren't attacked the same way as us. Another one is um what was the other explanation he had? He had two explanations like you know to potential justifications, but both of them didn't make sense. So I understand why the UA the UAE is always a step ahead. The Iron Dome was one example and their success in intercepting the missiles and drones was proof of that.

[00:25:31]So they're always a step ahead. Them leaving OPEC is again a step ahead of everyone else, ahead of the curve. OPEC is losing its power and and is working against the interests of certain countries, certain members. But you're talking about a war with their neighbor Iran, a massive country that has shown the potential. Iran could have caused a lot more destruction if they wanted to.

[00:25:49]If they focused solely on the UAE and certain targets, if they just overwhelmed the system, they could have caused more destruction. Now, obviously, they did fire significantly at the UAE, but they were also firing at many other Gulf countries and Israel. So if you're looking at the UAE leading the charge for war with Iran, I understand Iran is seen as a threat, but I just don't think first I don't think it's a threat that can get that can be resolved militarily.

[00:26:13]It's just too big of a country. Now we're talking about the US not being able to achieve it. The US not achieving the its objectives now and walking Trump potentially walking away. If there is a bigger operation, including a ground operation, Sammy, and the US doesn't work and Trump walks away, the UAE would be screwed. So that's number one. Number two, the UAE has also built its whole reputation on stability, safety, security, 90% population expats. I live here as well and it's seen as like the Switzerland of the Middle East. That whole image would be destroyed if they get into a direct war with Iran. So that's why I see the cons. I understand the the potential benefits of a weaker Iran and they've talked about defanging Iran, but they've also been critical of the war. You know, Alabd put out that famous letter now saying blaming Israel and the US fuming at both countries. I feel like the UAE is in a position now.

[00:26:58]They got dragged into a war they never signed up for and now they have to deal with the consequences. But dealing with the consequences doesn't mean going back into a war that they play a role instigating.

[00:27:07]I don't think it's that the UAE will decide whether it enters the war or not.

[00:27:11]I think it's the UAE saying this may be outside of our control. I think that sometimes we assume that the Arabs have some agency in terms of whether war will take place or not. The reason the UAE and the Saudis and the Kataris were so upset is because not only were they not consulted about the war, but that they were being stonewalled by Donald Trump whenever they were complaining and saying, "Mr. Trump, this war is disastrous. What on earth are you doing?" And Donald Trump essentially ignored them. And not only that, was expecting them or pressuring them to get involved. You remember Lindsey Graham saying, "Saudis, you need to step up now and if you want any deal with the Americans, you have to get involved." So the Arabs were sort of saying, "What on earth is going on here? We've we've invested trillions in the American economy and this is what you're saying to us. But the reason why I think that the Arabs are bracing themselves for a potential scenario whereby they may not be the ones who decide where the war takes place, but it might happen regardless is that when you look at the way their investments are, we're not seeing a pooling of investments with regards to their support for the Israelis. For example, the Kataris Saudis and the Immiratis are still invested in Zionist investments. For example, with regards to the purchase of Warner Brothers, invested in Jared Kushner's, you know, uh, investment fund, investing in the Israeli economy.

[00:28:21]None of them have pulled that out.

[00:28:22]Meaning, they still see Israel as an asset to be used to be, uh, warmed with, to get closer to in order to influence Washington and to influence some of Trump's proceedings. That means they're careful how to offend the Israelis.

[00:28:37]They're careful how to offend the Americans. Now, if the Israelis turn around and said, "You know what? Yes, the first run against the Iranians was bad, but let me try again and go against the Iranians. We can do it." Mr. Trump, they're not budging on the negotiations.

[00:28:49]Everybody saying, "You're losing.

[00:28:51]Everybody is saying that." And the hormone straight is being shut. Mr. President, I believe that a two-week bombing campaign will lead to the Iranians cracking again. The Supreme Leader hasn't appeared. Mushta is nowhere to be seen. there's only papers that get delivered that suggest that he's alive and he's already injured and Trump turns around and says, "Well, I've got no better suggestions. Let me go in for a war." UAE is not consulted here.

[00:29:14]This is the problem the UAE has at the moment. UAE is not consulted and neither are the Arabs. And I think that what is really frightening now is when you look at the emergency summit in Jeda that took place yesterday where Muhammad bin Salman the Saudi crown prince is trying to gather the regional leaders to come up with a regional front by which to present a regional plan for how to handle Iran and the Hurm strait Muhammad bin Zed UE president doesn't attend. The Omanis they don't attend according to reports they're not there. the you see the the OPEC withdrawing from OPEC is announced on the same day that bin Salman has his summit almost as if the UAE are saying that we're not following this leadership anymore. It hasn't benefited us. We are the we ended up suffering the worst. We heard it in the influencer summit that they had two days ago in Dubai or in Abu Dhabi where Gargash and Abdalik Abdullah came out and they said that only Morocco, Egypt and I think it was Syria. They stood by us. everybody else wasn't with us and we need to rethink these organizations that we're part of. I think that the issue is that when the Saudi crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman cannot even gather the regional leaders in one place to discuss a common position for what to do about hummus and what to do about Iran.

[00:30:28]It shows you the Arabs don't have agency in this that they're trying to adapt to what the Israelis want, what the Americans want, and what the Iranians want. And the Americans don't know what they want. Do we want a deal or do you want to return to war? The Iranians don't know what the Americans want. Will they give us the deal or should we brace ourselves for war? The Israelis know for definite what they want, but don't know if they can get it. We want war. We don't know if Trump will give it to us.

[00:30:51]And I think in this uncertainty that's unfolding, we assume that we're headed towards peace. We assume that we headed towards a deal. But I think the reality is that the Iranians may say that Trump is the one who's stuck. Let's wait till the midterms. And Trump will say the Iranians are running out of resources.

[00:31:09]Let's see how long they last. And in the middle of this, the losers are the Arabs. The losers are the ordinary person at the gas at the gas pump. And the losers are emphatically those who thought they had power in the region where they thought they could have access to the straight where they thought they could get their supplies out easily. But now the Arabs are finding Iran is becoming a tiger. And how do you wrestle with a tiger that has ambitions on your own lands, that has ambitions on your own territories? Does this mean when Iran which has always said it wants to go for Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia, bin Salman turns around and says, "I can't rely on the Americans, can't rely on the Israelis, can't rely on the UAE. I can't rely on and I can't summon the regional leaders.

[00:31:50]What do I do?" The reason I'm painting it this way, Mario, is this. There is no clarity about what happens next. No one knows what's going to happen next. And the reason that frightens the likes of the UAE, of Saudi Arabia, is because the prospect could also be war. And if war happens again, Trump is not going to be using his own troops. The Israelis will be pitching Pakistani troops. They'll be pitching Saudi troops. They may even pitch UAE troops to say, "U go take back your islands of the north and the south to islands near the Horm Strait." And the UAE might say this is worth it because if they take those islands, it increases their ability to influence the Horm Strait. And they are Imirati lands anyway. According they are Imirati lands anyway according to the Imiratis. The point that I'm saying is that the point that I'm saying is that when you look at what's unfolding, the lack of clarity leads to a fear that this might not be resolved as easily as everybody thinks. What do you make of MBZ, not MBZ, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi's visit to China as well. So, a lot of talk was about um some of the Gulf countries moving away from the US or diversifying away from the US. And I actually asked the professor yesterday that same question as well. And he said the diversification's already started.

[00:33:00]you know, he told me about two defense deals that were signed with European countries and the diversification will happen, but that's not at the expense of the US. You could both double down on the US alliance, but also diversify anyway. You know, the US and Israel, but also diversify into Europe and and the big question is China. So, what is China's role in all this? Because they dictate a lot of what happens, but we don't talk about them enough because they're always silent in the background.

[00:33:23]They don't do these crazy posts or these big military campaigns. I think the UAE's assessment of China's role in the region is that because we Arabs didn't do enough to reach out to the Chinese.

[00:33:33]They're too close to the Iranians. And because they are too close to the Iranians, it enables Iran to survive despite the pressure that's being applied by the Americans and the Israelis and the pressure that the Arabs would like to see applied on the Iranians. Therefore, why don't I send my crown prince to Gigin Ping in Beijing and tell him, Gin Ping, your future is not with Iran. Your future is with us.

[00:33:53]Your future is with our money, our investments. We are willing to invest in Chinese technology. We are willing to invest in our partnership with China.

[00:34:00]We're willing to help to make the dragon roar in the region, but you are too close to the Iranians and that hinders what happens. And that's why I think there was when the crown prince went to visit, there was uh I struggled to find where the statement was made. But sometimes perception is more powerful than reality. There were these memes going around in Arabic media, not memes but like reports that this crown prince of UAE had asked China to treat Arabs as it treats the Iranians. And the Chinese premier Giinping said, "You don't tell us who we ally with." Like you don't come to China to tell us who we can or we ally with.

[00:34:34]>> I've seen that. I've seen that.

[00:34:36]>> Yeah. We deal with everybody. You don't don't you dare interfere in our relationship with the Iranians. We're happy to have good ties with you. We're happy to do trade with you. We're happy to support you. We're happy to deal with you. Don't ever think that you tell Beijing where it can ally with.

[00:34:49]>> Did that actually happen? Sorry, Sammy.

[00:34:51]Did that actually happen or there's just rumors? Cuz someone I had a guest tell me as well >> for a while, but I wasn't able to find the exact source. But >> one of my guests told me that the the crown prince was like dictating to China what to do and China was really offended by it. I think I think what probably happened in the meeting was the UAE were basically pitching the Arabs as a better alternative than the Iranians, saying to China that you might be hindering your ties with us by being too close to the Iranians who are a threat. And I think the Chinese turned around and said, "We don't want to get involved in your beef.

[00:35:19]We just want to trade, make money, and you know, make sure our supplies go clearly. We're not getting involved in this." And I think the UEE might have responded and said, "Okay, touché. We understand that. That's perfectly fine.

[00:35:30]Let's sign some deals." I think that when it comes to China, I think what the UAE are trying to do, this is my assessment, and indeed the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and perhaps the Kataris to a lesser extent, it's if Iran is able to survive against the Americans, it must be because the Russians and the Chinese are helping them. How can we get the Russians and the Chinese to disassociate from the Iranians? How can we be more valuable to them so that Iran can truly be weakened so that it doesn't threaten us in future? The problem is that the Chinese don't trust the Arabs because the Arabs are too close to the Americans. The Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman once received Giin Ping in Riyad. I think it was 2019 rolled out the red carpet for 2021. It was during the Biden administration rolled out the red carpet for Gi Ping to basically say to the Americans, treat me better or wall, I'll go to the Chinese. When Biden went to Jedda and met with the Saudi crown pron Salman and they met with each other again and they embraced one another, the Saudi crown prince tilted back towards the Americans. And the Chinese, I think, felt and said, "We don't like being played this way. If you're going to deal with us, you treat us seriously." And I think what the UAE is trying to say is, "I'm genuinely angry with the Americans cuz they didn't protect me. China, let's hold hands together and let's be and I don't know if the Chinese necessarily buy into that particular narrative. That doesn't mean the Chinese won't trade with the UAE. It doesn't mean they won't provide some technology to the UAE. But I think the Chinese will continue to prefer the Iranians over the UAE because the Iranians have demonstrated they can survive an American onslaught. Whereas UAE is indicating it cannot survive without Israel and the US. Iran is indicating that it can survive and stand against the bombing campaign from Israel America even if planes take off from Gulf States. Saudi Arabia is indicating that it cannot survive without the Americans and the Israelis being willing to support them. Even though I think Saudi Arabia can. And that's why I think for the Chinese, Beijing is looking at what's unfolding and saying, "I'm going to be with the one who's most powerful."

[00:37:28]And it looks like to me that it's the Iranians. And you guys are as of now still US proxies. until I see something that's different, we can't be we can't have a similar alliance the way we have with the Iranians.

[00:37:40]>> By the way, I've just um looked up the claims of the frictional or the UAE crown prince dictating to China. So, it seems to be not nothing verified, just people claiming it on social media, but there's no proper sources verifying it.

[00:37:52]Um I want to go back to Iran. What are what are their intentions in all this?

[00:37:58]What are their objectives? You talked about their claims of wanting to march into Mecca. Um, what's the sentiment now, especially considering we have new leadership that's taking control?

[00:38:09]>> I think the Iranian state is designed in a way in which the leader is not the be all and end all. If the leader is killed, they can replace him and if that one is killed, they replace him. It's not designed in the way that some of the other Gulf nations are designed in which the state protects the leader before the nation. Iran is designed to protect the the the the integrity of the state before it's designed to protect the leader. which is why Kami was killed in 2 three days and Iran was still able to stand on its own two feet and that's because Iran is an ideological state.

[00:38:35]Iran has a mission. Iran believes in this grander ideological mission which is what allows it to inspire proxies in Lebanon via to inspire the likes of the Houthis to inspire those in Syria who aren't Persians but still fight with the same loyalty as if they were the same ethnicity. This ideology that Iran propagates, that it is the inheritor of a legacy that it seeks to spread in the region, it inspires a lot of proxies to mobilize on its behalf. I think that the Iranians believe that right now it's how do we preserve what we've worked so hard to gain by we I'm saying speaking as if as if I'm behalf of the Iranians. I believe the Iranians are a bit of a problematic neighbor in the region. But in any case, for example, the Iranians sent Isma Kani, who is the head of the IRGC, to Iraq to solve the feud between the pro-Iran factions over who should be prime minister. They outwitted the Americans in Baghdad. He lands after their bickering. Should it be Maliki?

[00:39:36]Should it be this guy? Should it be this guy? Is he lands, sits them in a room, and tells them, "Listen, every one of you, this isn't the time for bickering.

[00:39:44]we want this person to be prime minister. All of you guys agreed to him.

[00:39:48]They all said, "Okay, no problem. We agree." And a prime minister in Iraq has been announced. It's a very pro-Iran prime minister. Iran protecting its proxies and preservation of its control in Iraq. The Iranians managed to help and preserve by agreeing to Donald Trump ceasefire that sought to preserve in Lebanon through which Iran uses it as an arm. It used it before to attack Syria and it uses it as well to put pressure on the Israelis. The Houthies, the Iran have kept them intact. Haven't summoned them to block the Babel Mandab. The Iranians saying to the Houthies, now is not the time to intervene. I want to leave a window whereby I can negotiate with Donald Trump. The issue that the Iranians have in the mediation right now is Pakistan. Is Assam truly a mediator or is he closer to the US? Is Assam truly looking after our interest as well or is he too close to the US? And I think the Iranians, there were some very interesting reports that came out that said that the Iranians were getting frustrated at how the Pakistanis were celebrating their role as a mediator, that we are Pakistan and we're great and look, we're becoming such a big power and all these powers are relying on Pakistan to bring world peace. The Iranians were saying, "Listen, we want a bit more discretion here. You keep leaking information. you keep telling people we're about to sign a deal or these negotiations like we want you to be a bit quiet otherwise we'll look for other mediators and some people interpreted the Iranian foreign minister's recent visit a few days back to Moscow to Muskat and to Islamabad as the Iranians saying to the Pakistanis listen we're willing to continue with you as a mediator but you need to behave otherwise we'll find alternative mediators we'll go and find somebody else to go and the Pakistanis have been notably a bit more mute about the development of the negotiations as if they've understood what the Iranians The Iranians in reality are not in a new situation. They've been under pressure for decades. Iranians are used to this.

[00:41:35]Iranians are used to being under the used to being in a position whereby they are punching above their weight against the superpower. And they're used to winning Mario. They're used to getting Obama to buckle and sign a JCPOA.

[00:41:49]They're used to thwarting the Americans in Iraq. They're used to thwarting the Americans in Syria. They're used to thwarting the Americans in Lebanon. They are used to thwarting the Americans in Yemen by getting the Houthis to topple the internationally recognized government. The Iranians are used to winning these skirmishes with the Americans. And they don't believe that that's going to change anytime soon. And I think that's what Trump fails to understand. Trump believes that he's fighting a weakened power. The Iranians see themselves as a superpower. They see themselves as the extension of the old Persian Empire from before Islam. They see themselves as we have every right to be the superpower in this region. We used to be equal to Rome. We will not be below Rome. And I think that this is why Haken Fidan, the Turkish foreign minister, when he was interviewed on Turkish television, they said to Mr. foreign minister, what do you think the solution with Iran should be? He said the Americans need to understand that the Iranians are ready for a deal, but the way the Americans talk to the Iranians won't get them to the table.

[00:42:50]The Iranians want the Iranians want a deal, Mario. The Iranians don't want the war. The Iranians want the deal, but they want it in a way in which when Trump speaks, he respects the dignity of the Iranians. He doesn't want it as come here, I've defeated you, I've destroyed you. He wants them to come and say, "These Persians, good on you. Well done.

[00:43:08]Let's sign the deal. I respect you."

[00:43:10]It's a dignity issue. It It's a It's a You know, I always say politics is the science of human relations. No more, no less. The way you say something matters.

[00:43:19]as long as Donald Trump and this is the irony and I'll finish on this point. The irony is that I actually think Donald Trump was so close to a deal, but then he blundered. He was so he he really wanted people to say it was a victory.

[00:43:30]So he gave that thing where he said they've agreed that they're going to surrender this and surrender that and the Iranians went what? No. Okay, back out. We're going back from Islamabad.

[00:43:40]It's Trump's own statements. If he learns, in my opinion, if he can tone it down a little bit, I think the Iranians would be amanable to giving him something that he can go to the Americans and say, "I won." I think if Trump can be tempered, can calm down a little bit, he can get the deal that he wants. The problem is, however, Trump listens to Tel Aviv first before he listens to his own advisers in my opinion. And I think that remains a very problematic uh >> even now even even you still think he's listening to Tel Aviv after the faulty intelligence he was given to drag him into this war. Now he's stuck in that war because of the advice of the Israelis.

[00:44:16]>> I think that if he was listening to anyone other than the Israelis he would have had a deal by now. I think that if he was listening to somebody else >> Scott Besson hold Scott Besson that's advising him on the blockade. The Israelis want to go back to the war and he's not going back into the war. There is okay there's a military buildup. He may go back into the war, but right now he's opted for the economic blockade and he's only got a 2 to 3 week window before maybe even a two week window before he just makes a decision because the aircraft carriers can't be there forever.

[00:44:43]>> Well, let's flip it the other way. If the UAE believed that Israel was no longer being listened to on Iran, UAE would not be so loud in doubling down on its relationship with Israelis.

[00:44:52]>> And if no, Israelis are seeing as a deterrent to Iran. Israel is shown to have what's the alternative to American air defense systems, which is what Iran needs. Israeli air defense systems is the second or third best in the world.

[00:45:04]So they've that's a very the alliance that they have with Israel. Doubling down on that makes a lot of sense because Israel stepped up according to the report stepped up during the war and protected the UAE more than any other country even though the UE perhaps feels that he could have been better protected. But but I do think that as it stands at the moment, Trump, if we if he's not listening entirely to the Israelis, there's still the first people that he's listening to. And I think that until Donald Trump decides what it is exactly that he wants. He knows the feeling of what he wants. He knows that he wants people to celebrate him. He doesn't know how to get people to celebrate him in that regard. And then there is the final angle that's worth mentioning, Mario, is this. How long does Europe stand idle while it's their economies get squeezed by the HMAS and by the the oil shortages? I mean, I went to fill up on the pump here yesterday and it's it's the the the the spike is incredible. It's is unbelievable here in terms of the oil prices and the prime minister says we're supposed to be expecting more that we should be bracing ourselves for the summer. It's going to be a rough summer.

[00:46:10]People saying cancel your holidays and meaning they're expecting it to get worse. How long before Macron turns around and says you know savv you know we cannot just sit idally by we have to also do something as well as Europeans detach from the Americans and do something on our own what will the Europeans do in that regard China has a buffer because China's been preparing for this for a while China's been you know loading up oil you know for quite some time I think that we assume that as of now the actors are Trump Iran Israel and the Arabs but This could be something that could become much greater if Sena heads don't take control. I'm hoping if I have to move away from analysis to hope. I'm hoping that the blue wave in the in America in the midterm elections if it manifests or if Trump takes a beating in the midterm elections, then maybe maybe Donald Trump might find might be convinced to change his ways. Maybe, although Democrats historically have been more amunable to the Iranians, maybe before then somebody will feel the heat and the pressure and they'll sign that deal. But as it stands, I think everybody's still staring to see who blinks first and nobody's entirely sure how to adapt to it.

[00:47:24]>> When you mentioned World War II, it's a pretty big word. Everyone likes to throw it around, but I think you've mentioned it in a calculated way. How would it escalate to that level? Because you've mentioned about Gulf countries acting on Iran. where do you're saying China wants stability. China needs the oil from the from the region. They have they're not they can't sustain themselves yet. They need a few more years for that. Many more years for that. Um so China wants stability in the region. Russia is the only country that may benefit getting attention away from Ukraine but to an extent. Um the US Europe obviously can't afford it. So how would that escalate to that level? Because usually when you get into a world war it's not intentional.

[00:48:00]No one intends to to to get to a world war but they you know one miscalculation leads to another. Yeah, >> I think these days I've been thinking about this quite a bit in that we're looking at it as, you know, Israel, Arabs, and the Iranians, but the UAE and Saudi are now beefing in Yemen.

[00:48:20]There's tensions between the Arab powers in Sudan, tensions in Libya. The Saudis bought weapons from Pakistan and gave them to Haftar in Libya to tell Haftar, "Abandon the UAE and align with me instead." and Haftar sort of looking left and right between Abu Dhabi and Riyad saying which side should I be on?

[00:48:38]We've seen the UAE Saudi escalation has led to a conflict by which the southern separatists tried to take Hadraote. The side has responded by bombing the UAE proxy southern separatist and UAE has responded now by lobbying Washington to designate the Saudi allies in Yemen, the Islah as a terrorist organization to say to the Saudis, I'm not going to let you maneuver in Yemen the way that you want.

[00:48:59]And if Islah is designated by Trump as a terrorist organization, they're the most organized power militarily and politically on the ground that hamstrings Saudi's ability to influence Yemen. Let's suppose that happens and the UAE managed to get their wish of carving Yemen into two southern separatists in the south and the Houthis in the north. And the Houthis are now posing deciding should we go after UAE or go after Saudi and the Saudis decide to respond to the Houthis. Now you have skirmishes taking place over there. No deal with the Iranians. So the Iranians start firing on the other side. The UAE decide, well, there's war everywhere.

[00:49:32]Let me go and take some of those islands over there. The Israelis get involved to try to help the Imiratis there instead.

[00:49:38]US is already there anyway. Well, let's take advantage two, three weeks. Let's see how that goes. The Chinese start to send weapons to the Iranians and the Russians send weapons whatever they can to the Iranians to help them to try to stop there to survive. Europeans try to punish the Russians by funding Ukraine again. And now Ukraine has an impetus to go forward and take territory that they lost to the Russians. Russia decides to emphasize on the Ukraine in of itself, but it needs weapons. It needs to go get them from the Chinese or get suddenly all these powers are being dragged in by one miscalculation that took place in Yemen or in Somaliand or in Somalia or in Haftar in Libya or in Sudan. These are very tense times because the genocide that took place in Gaza obliterated any last semblance of international law. Carney of Canada, the prime minister came out and said, "We used to pretend international law exists. Now we don't need to pretend anymore." He said in a way lamenting international law. But the point that I'm saying is now that we have no order for how things go anymore. Now that international order is no longer what it was before, we are in a period very similar to the great wars of the past. I hope that it doesn't happen. But the fact that now we're back to the laws of the jungle where we don't operate on international norms anymore. Its might is right. Iran is being respected because it's strong, not because it has a right under international law. Israel is being followed because it's strong, not because it has a right under international law. UAE is saying, "I don't even need to abide by international organizations anymore.

[00:50:57]They're useless." Like OPEC and it might withdraw from others because now we live in a world where I need to pump oil. I need to get an iron dome. I need to build security. I can't rely on law anymore. I can't rely on norms anymore.

[00:51:09]I can't rely on international norms or foreign policy relations anymore. I need to rely on hard power. I need to rely on proxies. I need to make sure Somali land has a military base there. I need to make sure my proxy in Sudan can establish themselves against Kartum being backed by Saudi Arabia. I need to make sure Haftar can survive the onslaught that is going to come when I start beefing with the Saudis and beef with the Egyptians. Egypt in the middle looking for money left and right. Which way do we turn? Whichever way you look at it, whichever way you look at it, there's so much uncertainty now where all it takes is for one wrong move and we could find ourselves in in a situation whereby where we said never again, we ended up doing it again. And that's why I think that ultimately Washington needs to sit down the advisers around Donald Trump and say to Mr. President, you got two choices. You went on a campaign saying you were the candidate of peace. Bring about that peace and bring it about quickly.

[00:52:03]Otherwise, this may be a war that you don't actually have the power to win or have the power to dictate. That may be the Iranians and the Chinese and the Russia. This could be your 1956 moment in the sewers cana Jamal Abdas. The failure of the English and the British to the British and the French to reign in Jamal Abdas. And bear in mind, it was the Israelis who got the British and the French to go into the seers as well.

[00:52:28]That Naser surviving he didn't beat them. He survived and that signal the end of the British and the French empires. This could be that moment for the US. But what happens after these empires fall what happens is we on the bottom side we end up suffering the most as a result of it. So I don't know these days these days we had here just to finish on this point Mario I remember opening the BBC the other day this may be like two months ago and it said the army chief of staff at MI6 head of MI6 were telling British citizens that they should prepare for war in their lifetimes and that you know maybe this could be something that could you can look it up as well that you know they need to be prepared. Why? Because Russia's hypersonic missiles maybe can attack London in in that regard. It's it's the world is getting darker and I think that egos are making it even darker and I think maybe everybody needs to pray that sena heads take place because it seems like there are lunatics in charge at the moment everywhere.

[00:53:25]>> As a final question Sammy um what happens to Lebanon? Lebanon seems to be like the forward-looking indicator of what happens in the region. It seems to be the country that probably has the most proxies involved and has been for decades. And it seems to be the loser.

[00:53:38]Whenever there's a conflict in the region, whether a direct kinetic conflict like the war we have now or a political back and forth like we saw between Saudi and Iran, it's Lebanon that suffers. It's the battlefield for all these big powers. What happens to Lebanon now? Is it going to end up being a winner with Hezbollah disarming and normalizing relations with Israel over the next 10 years or the complete opposite where the disarmament of Hisbalah or the attempt to disarm Hisbalah leads to civil war that Israel takes advantage of?

[00:54:04]I think that first and foremost from a human perspective it seems like the world doesn't really care about the lives of the Lebanese which is really heartbreaking and and really sad like they get slaughtered left right center and they get pulled out the rubble and nobody seems to bet an eye it but on a political angle and the president of Lebanon are arguing over the talks that are taking place between Lebanon and the Israelis are saying that the Lebanese president is about to betray the country by normalizing with the Israelis. The Lebanese president is coming out and saying I'm not normalizing. I'm seeking a non-aggression pact similar to what Ahmed in Syria is trying to seek with the Israelis. The Lebanese president saying I want a non-aggression pact and the Israelis can call it normalization as they wish. I know that it's not normalization of ties. Trump wants normalization. Trump, I think one of the wins or one of his offramps is that maybe he might come to some sort of concessions with the Iranians if he can bring the Lebanese president to Washington, sit stand him next to Netanyahu and say, "I brought another country to the Abraham Accords and in exchange Trump guarantees the peace for Lebanon and prevents the Israelis from attacking them." The problem is that the Lebanese are deeply concerned what would be the conditions for such an agreement with the Israelis. The Lebanese now are in the talks with the Israelis for the first time in 30 years. That's significant official talks. Trump wants to present this as normalization of ties. Lebanese won't agree to that. That will lead to a civil war. I was asked by Times radio when I said it, they canceled the interview. They said, "What do you think will happen if you know they norm?" I said, "Any normalization between Lebanon and Israel leads to civil war domestically. The government doesn't have the power to >> Why did they Why did they cancel Hold on. Why did they cancel the interview based on that very logical state?"

[00:55:36]>> Suddenly, like five minutes before the interview, they said, "Sorry, we're going to a different topic." But but the point that I'm saying is that the the Lebanese government doesn't have the power to impose a normalization deal on a population that is more pro Palestinian than it is pro- Israel.

[00:55:52]Hezbollah might use this as a res on debt to try for another attempt to take the government for themselves with quote unquote popular support in order to prevent that normalization from taking place. The reality is that if Trump pushes normalization, the peace he's looking for may end up into a civil war.

[00:56:09]And that civil war will see funneling of weapons. It will see an overflow of that fighting into Syria, which might see Turkey get involved, which might see the Israelis get involved, which might see the Saudis get involved, which might see the European France. Macron sees an opportunity. Macron is upset that Trump is negotiating this without the French.

[00:56:27]This is a former French colony. We France should have a role in it. Macron is nowhere to be seen. Macron might say, "Yes, yes, we we s him an opportunity.

[00:56:35]This is my chance to get involved and to do a peace deal." Trump tells him, "Back off Macron." Macron brings in the EU.

[00:56:42]Suddenly we the the the possibilities for escalation in Lebanon are actually great because Trump wants to imp Mario by it's called inescapable Questions by Aliyia Isidovich. He writes at the end of the book after he signs the date and agreement with the Americans. It's about the Bosnian war.

[00:57:00]He writes, "When when people ask me should I have signed the Dayton agreement that the Americans imposed on the region, I am not sure which is better, a just war or an unjust peace in that Trump's pursuit of an unjust peace may result in the war that he's trying to avoid and that it may well be better for Donald Trump to find a way to get a Lebanese government that more accurately represents the people and to find a way to bring a peace between the Iranians and the Israelis in this recent escalation that took place and then to have a serious discussion about how the region can come together to find a way to live side by side with one another because if this region goes to war again it will engulf everybody and everybody will pay the price for it.

[00:57:51]>> Sammy that was um really enjoyed the conversation man I think your analysis was spot on. You're also very eloquent in the way you describe it as you probably know that already. I think Lebanon is just a much sadder story than Iran because I think Iran I'm a lot more optimistic than Lebanon. I'm one of the few optimists online by the looks of it that I really think the war in Iran is over. I just don't think Israel has that much influence over Trump to drag him back into it. I don't think Trump suddenly from being the peace president to being the forever war president. I just don't think, you know, he's definitely not insane, hasn't lost his mind, won't use nukes, but I really think he's a lot more pragmatic than people give him credit. I worry that the Iranians are really twisting his arm and I'm not saying it's right or wrong. you know, they've just been part of this illegal war. So, I worry the Iran the the IRGC stance may in a way force Trump back into a limited war, but I think that would be catastrophic if he gets back into it. The Gulf will never look the same. It's going to be interesting to see how it changes. That one I can't predict. Lebanon is a much sadder story.

[00:58:44]Just doesn't look good at all. And seeing those villages leveled like Gaza just makes me feel like a fool for being one of the people that saying maybe Israel doesn't want to annex Lebanese land. Maybe they do want to normalize relations with Lebanon. they don't want to do to Lebanon what they did in Gaza.

[00:58:57]That was what the argument I was making that you know I'm not saying I trust them but like like 6040 chance 60% they want to normalize relations and not destroy Lebanon.

[00:59:06]>> Um but now I look like a fool. So yeah, Lebanon's a much sadder story but we'll see. I mean the region's never been more um more uh confusing that has now more difficult to predict than it is now. But Sammy, you've done a great job trying to predict it. I really appreciate you coming.

[00:59:22]>> You've done a great job bringing the discussion and the points and the debates. Keep going as you are, Mario.

[00:59:26]>> Thank you, brother.

[00:59:27]>> Take care, my guy.

[00:59:29]>> All right, everyone. So, I hope I'm sure you enjoyed this conversation with Sammy. He's always one of the guests I really enjoy having a discussion with.

[00:59:34]He's just so eloquent in the way he describes his points. Um, so what we're going to do now is in for 28 minutes, we have Danny Hong. He's got his own channel on YouTube. Does great. Has a lot of great guests. So, he's going to be coming in on the show for the first time. You guys may know him. Then we have Arhri, who was on Tucker Carson two weeks ago. I'm not going to pronounce his last name. I don't know how to pronounce it. He was on Taken two weeks ago talking about I I'm very critical of Israel now was a lot more nuanced before. Whenever I start feeling like I'm too critical towards a certain issue or a country, I want to try to balance myself again or make sure I'm being pragmatic and I'm being objective. So having that discussion with Ari and listening to a stucker interview, he seems very he's a journalist, a Jewish journalist based in the US who's been to Israel. I think I don't think he's Israeli, but having a listening to his discussion with Tucker, I really enjoyed it. I highly recommend you listen to it.

[01:00:22]So, I'm going to dig into it a bit further and kind of link it to the events that are happening right now. And what are Israelis thinking? What is their real foreign for foreign policy?

[01:00:30]Is how many of them want to achieve greater Israel? Is it actually government policy to enex Lebanese land and potentially more Syrian land as well? What is their object? What is their end goal with Gaza? We're going to talk about October 7th. I've seen all the reports about the stand the standown orders on October 7th. I've never looked into it. Arri has. I want to ask him about it. He he's got a he's really done a deep dive into it. So, I've got so many questions to Ari. That's going to be in exactly an hour and 15 minutes.

[01:00:57]That's probably the conversation I'm looking forward to the most today. Um to really understand Israeli foreign policy. Then we have Colonel Larry Wilkson coming on. He's a regular on the show. Aaron Martin coming on afterwards.

[01:01:08]Again, a regular on the show. Malcolm Nance, another regular. And we're going to add end it with Charles Finnfrock. Uh Finn Frock. He's a former CIA officer.

[01:01:17]He's been on the show many, many months ago. We didn't discuss the Iran war. So, I'm going to have a discussion with him as well. All right, everyone. Thank you so much. I'll see you again in 15 16 minutes. We're going live again. Bye, everyone.