This El Niño Could Reshape Weather Worldwide..

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]There were so many requests in the last El Nino video to expand upon the potential global impacts when it comes to this upcoming El Nino. So, in today's video, we are going to do just that.

[00:00:10]There was also one burning question that stuck out above all others, and that was, how does all of this warmth that goes into creating El Nino come to be?

[00:00:18]So, I'm going to answer that towards the end of the video. I'll also put time codes in region by region so you can find the place that you want to go to.

[00:00:24]Although, I'd love it if you watch the entire video. Thank you guys for all the questions, comments, and welcome to all of the new subscribers. This is for North America. Your typical El Nino impacts. You see that moisture feed, that's the subtropical jetream, very active, bringing that extra Pacific moisture from California through the southwest into the deep south and southeast. That is your very active winter. And again, it's typically your highest impacts when it comes to El Nino happen in the winter. drier than normal and warmer than normal conditions into the Pacific North into the Pacific Northwest and especially into the interior North Great Lakes, upper Midwest. As a part of this video as well as we go region by region, I'm going to show you the long range model forecast when it comes to that specific region.

[00:01:09]So, this is starting off in November.

[00:01:11]This is the CFS V2 climate model. And again, it's a long range model. Take it with a grain of salt, but a lot of these match the typical teleconnection of an El Nino. So, here we go with the higher than normal rainfall in the southeast from November. This is one of the biggest and highest confidence teleconnections. A big-time drought and heat developing in Hawaii. We're going to get to you guys more specifically in just one second. Same for you in Alaska.

[00:01:38]But there we go. Look at all of this moisture build in the southeast, also in the west, parts of the central uh southern plains. There is all of that orange coming back into Hawaii. We do have the opportunity to keep it wetter than normal in the eastern part of Canada, Hudson Bay and east. The western side though, that is where we really start to dry things back out. Now, when it comes to Hawaii, this is where we're looking for the potential for a big-time drought to develop. It's one of the highest confidence teleconnections as mentioned that we had drier weather, big-time heat as that subtropical high pressure cell strengthens. I want to show you the long range model for that going forward. This is going to be for February 2027. We'll go back a little bit more, but you can clearly see all of the extra moisture across the equatorial Pacific. That is because of the warmer water, the enhanced thunderstorm activity, but there is the big drier than normal signal there. That's February, January, December. We're going back in time, uh, November. And you see there, that's where the change happens.

[00:02:42]wetter than normal still in October as things are getting going in the El Nino world and then that rain should shut off. Really the same kind of deal for the western half of the United States, northwest United States including Alaska and then western Canada. that big signal there for above normal temperatures and drier especially as we get into Canada for Alaska doesn't always mean less snow but it certainly means the big opportunity here to be drier or to be warmer than normal during the winter months and again El Nino's impacts are far reaching especially once we get to the cold season so here's the model forecast this is October we're going to send things to November I want to point out a couple of things look at how warm The Arctic is that's another calling cards. We are likely going to see uh unfortunate ramifications in the Arctic.

[00:03:34]Look at the heat build through December 2026. Northern tier of the US into Canada around the Hudson Bay and west there is Alaska. We are boiling relatively speaking. And that continues through January. Notice the temperature anomaly grows colder because we have extra clouds, extra rain around. That's exactly what I'd be expecting across the southern half of the country. Meanwhile, the northern tier of uh North America is going to bake. Let's move on to South America. We've touched on you guys before in recent El Nino videos. Here we go, though. Uh the biggest signal, one of the biggest signals because El Nino and its impacts are so close. Obviously, we have that warmer water kind of pushing right up against uh Peru uh just off to the west of the coastline kind of right in through here. And that means on the western side, southern extreme southern central America and then parts of western South America. Flooding is going to be expected in Peru, Ecuador, northern Chile. Uh on the southern side, uh southeastern side of South America, Brazil, Uruguay, also some heavy rain, potential for some flooding. But then in the Amazon, the rain kind of shuts off.

[00:04:45]And that's actually portrayed near perfect to that as we move into the teleconnection side of this into the long range modeling. This is going to be for November of 2026.

[00:04:58]And there it is. Look at the green. Way above normal preip.

[00:05:04]Also way above normal preip developing Brazil, Uruguay, Amazon and surrounding areas. The drought is developing and that continues and expands December, January of next year and into f look at this lot of heavy rain. So be watching for the potential for some flooding unfortunately for you guys in that direction as well. In terms of Africa, there are two big spots that we watch. Extreme southern tip of Africa. These are the highest teleconnections we have. Confidence is high in an El Nino that this happens. uh towards southern Africa, South Africa, drier than normal conditions. We typically have a drought and a lot of heat develop in the maze belt and then just north of that we do get above normal rainfall in that area. So weird setup there and the model shows that to a tea. That is February. Let's go back to January, December. And you can clearly see when those impacts start.

[00:06:01]That's November. Still a little wet as that transition takes place. And then you see in southern Africa the drier than normal conditions in the brown, the wetter than normal conditions just north of that uh getting into February north of the maze belt. So a couple of things to keep in mind when we're watching that. Also, if you're still with me, hit that thumbs up button. There's a lot.

[00:06:22]We're talking about the whole world. So, thanks for uh sticking with me tonight.

[00:06:27]There is big ramifications when it comes to the Indian monsoon. It impact it doesn't shut off completely. El Nino, but it does limit that going forward.

[00:06:38]Um, so not as much rainfall expected, not necessarily a drought develops, but it's not as wet. The one thing is where you see the red there, it is very hot in India and surrounding areas where the rainfall does start to shut off is closer to Thailand, Vietnam, into Singapore and then back towards the Philippines. one of the biggest teleconnections we have when it comes to El Nino is a very dry winter uh November, December, January, February in the Philippines. So, that is something to keep in mind. And it will likely be warmer in Japan with less cold snaps.

[00:07:12]The only spot that we are wetter here is going to be eastern China where you see that green kind of blotch develop. And again, it is amazing at how well the climate models are matching the teleconnections. You would expect that for sure. But here we go. It does show start off with drier than normal conditions in October. Look at how dry that rust color and dark brown. That is super dry. There's the anomaly chart there. Way, way, way below normal in the rainfall already because we have that warmth leaving the western Pacific moving into the central and eastern Pacific. It takes the thunderstorm pattern with it. But there is the wetter than normal eastern China as depicted in the typical area. It does want to put out some extra moisture here later on.

[00:07:54]And again, just the model, but where we do keep the dry weather is in the Philippines. That's through December.

[00:08:01]So, expecting a big drought to develop.

[00:08:03]That's January. And then that's going to be February going forward. The other thing that I want to talk about, obviously, hurricane season, typhoon season happens prior to the winter. So, I want to touch on that. Typically for the Philippines, you can still get a strong storm. However, because there's more warmth further to the east now, we typically get those guys developing out in that area. um way further to the east anyway and then they have a bigger tendency to curve maybe closer to Japan hopefully out the sea but two of the things there that I am watching going forward as well would be hopefully not as many brushes with tropical systems for Australia we've talked about you guys a lot drought typically develops and we get very very warm conditions to settle back in I want to show you the model to go alongside that all the orange represents the above normal temperature that's for December January and then February as the drought really takes shape. Now a lot of questions as well about the United Kingdom in Europe, Spain, Italy, Ireland, everywhere um across Europe in Western Asia. That's kind of the lowest signal that we have. But I wanted to show you that there's really not one thing that sticks out, but that's the temperature anomaly for November. That's December 2026 and then that is January 2027. So, while we don't have a clear signal of how El Nino typically impacts us, because it can go either way, at least the climate models are dictating a whole lot of heat coming our way relative to where we should be for those cooler months, the winter months of December, January, February, and then continuing. Now, the number one question that I got, if you're still with me, hit that thumbs up button. Where does all the warmth come from? It's not an underwater volcano or fault lines or anything like that. You might think that, but it's really all about the wind and the sun, of course. So, the sun heats everything up, obviously, and it does the same thing with the water. In a typical year, you have the trade winds blowing from the Americas to the Western Pacific. That in turn piles up a whole lot of warmth way out here, and it continues to charge and warm up and stay there. It actually does raise the sea level in the west as well uh in the western Pacific. But in an El Nino year when the trade winds weaken, that's how an El Nino comes to be. All of that warmth that was built up here sloshes back to the east and warms everything up and the now big temperature anomalies happen right as we call it in the Nino 3.4 region. relatively speaking, right in that region when it gets to be a half a degree Celsius above normal, that's when El Nino has officially arrived. And that in and of itself, the transition of where the warmth is in the ocean changes everything and changes how the world responds or how the weather responds worldwide. I want to thank you guys again, all the new subscribers for finding the channel with the last video and the previous videos. Uh we're going to stay up to date with this El Nino. I will for sure keep you updated if you're interested in that. Do me a favor, hit that subscribe button. Would love to have you on the team. I really appreciate connecting with you guys. And thank you for tuning in.