We Have Two Areas To Watch In The Atlantic!

[00:00:00]Good afternoon and welcome back to another special detailed tropical weather outlook and discussion for Wednesday afternoon, July 15th, 20126.

[00:00:10]In this tropical weather update, there are two areas to watch for possible tropical development. One off the coast of Florida and another off the coast of Africa that we will be monitoring closely in today's tropical weather update. Looking at the latest IR satellite imagery for your Wednesday afternoon. Sorry, the last frame here gets blacked out. There has been some satellite problems today for unknown reasons. Hopefully Noah addresses that hopefully soon. So, the satellite images are up and running smoothly again. But we can see uh before the image blackouts, we can see a nice good tropical wave here coming off of Africa.

[00:00:47]That's what the National Hurricane Center is watching really closely for the possibility of tropical development as this general tropical wave moves off towards the west northwest at about 10 to 15 mph. And while there's no tropical disturbance here that has developed off the coast of Florida, one is expected to occur rather soon in the next 5 to seven days as the National Hurricane Center also has an area of interest out in that area. This is a look at the latest 7-day graphical tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida for those two areas that we're watching closely. Again, the one off of the Carolina coast and Florida. This has a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days. And an area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Subsequent slow development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and over the near and the southeastern coast of the United States by early next week. That's one area. And then again, another area that we're really watching closely here. This has a 20 or a 10% chance or a low chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave southeast of the Cabover Islands has become a little bit better organized during the last 24 hours. Some additional development is possible over the next couple of days as this system moves generally westward at around 10 to 15 mph. So that's what we're going to be watching closely uh when we look at our models, whether or not will that actually move into environment that is favorable for tropical development. So when we take a look at the latest European deterministic model forecast for this afternoon on your Wednesday into early Thursday morning, this is a look at a three plot system. As I have discussed many times in my previous tropical weather updates, anything in color shading is vorticity. How much spin there is in the atmosphere at 5,000 ft above the surface. The more spin that is concentrated cyclonically, the orange and redder the colors become. Lighter spin or weaker spin in the atmosphere is highlighted in yellow. And no spin is highlighted in white. So there's not really much cyclonic rotation, relative rotation happening. So there are a couple of areas again, one off the Carolina coast that we're watching closely. There is some broad spin that is associated with an open wave trough at the low levels of the atmosphere that is located off the Carolina coast. And then there's a tropical wave that is moving off of Africa with westerly and southerntherly winds on the southern side of it with northeasterly winds right here. This really helps to augment and uh augment a lot of vorticity that occurs within the intertropical convergence zone similar to with what we're seeing in the eastern and central Pacific. So the question is will that tropical wave actually consolidate? And it does not look like it's going to fare very well. As you know, it looks very aggressive right now. Looks very healthy. But in the next couple of days, it could deal with a lot of vertical wind shear and some drier air entrainment off of Africa. As you know, it is only the middle of July and climatology, this is not really an ideal location for tropical waves to develop off of Africa. It doesn't happen until the last half of August into September when we get these tropical waves that end up being more healthy. But in the case of the developing very strong El Nino that we're dealing with, climatology for this time of the year into the fall months during the peak of hurricane season, that's going to be one of the challenges in the Atlantic is whether or not will we get any tropical development beyond July into August. And so moving this forward in the next 30 days, so by Saturday morning, this tropical wave is pretty large and broad.

[00:04:40]And usually broad tropical waves have a harder time of getting going because there is a lot of dry air that is entrained into these systems and they tend to deal with a little bit more vertical wind shear. So the ending result here is in about 5 days the tropical wave is very broad here. There is still southwesterly flow here and there's northeasterly flow. So we do have a tropical wave axis oriented like this. And typically the northeastern side of that lobe of the tropical wave tends to augment vorticity or spin uh within it allowing tropical development to pursue. But in this case as the tropical wave continues u to move uh generally westward it is really going to run into negative environmental factors like vertical wind shear and lots of dry air which we'll be taking a look at here in a second. We do have a tropical wave or not really a tropical wave but a tropical weather disturbance that's going to be lingering across the southeastern United States and at times could drift off the coast of Florida and Georgia as well as Alabama. The latest European model here does not indicate that this is going to consolidate a whole lot right now. We were thinking a couple of days ago that there could be some attempt here at some tropical genesis that has since changed in subsequent models. We can see in the ZeroZ model run from last night, you can see a weaker reflection here. But when we take a look at yesterday's morning run, excuse me, my phone is going off like crazy. Sorry about that. A lot of texts, you know, with me losing my job.

[00:06:13]There's a lot going on in the home weather office in a unfortunate way today, but I'll do my best to keep you all updated here every single day, if not twice a day during the rough time that I'm dealing with right now with a job situation. But you can see um nothing really consolidates here very much. And so there's been a lot of consistency in recent modeling that that does not look to really consolidate very easy with again maybe a tropical wave here and another one that kind of is broad in nature is not closed that comes off of Africa. It's kind of like saying the tropical Atlantic is trying to show some favorability but the background state on top of El Nino is not allowing that to happen if that makes sense.

[00:06:58]Because for one, we have a large large anti-cyclonic ridge that is in place out here in the Atlantic. And this generates a lot of easterly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere underneath southwesterly and westerly flow a loft and that really generates a lot and a lot of vertical wind shear in the atmosphere typically this time of the year in the month of July. Some Julies could be very active than other Julies, but climatology usually things are favored for quiet conditions in the Atlantic this time of the year in the first place. We saw this last year, we saw this the year before, and then things really poofed up later on in the season. The GFS model is pretty similar with this. Again, strong subtropical ridge to the north of the MDR helping to really influence the trade winds nicely.

[00:07:47]there's that tropical wave that comes off of Africa, but as like um the European model showed, the GFS model struggles to develop this system at all.

[00:07:56]And by the time it even gets at all into the Caribbean, there's not even a reflection there in the vorticity plot at all, which means this tropical wave is going to run into a lot of trouble in days to come. when we look at the Canadian model and actually the GFS is not too enthused about that wave even coming off of the United States at all in the next eight or nine days. So that's why chances on that are really low. When we look at the Canadian model as well, another global model that I like to focus in on again subtropical ridge here to the north, you can see the the height lines there. Higher heights mean thicker higher thicknesses in the atmosphere meaning warmer temperatures, more air to use up. And so that means a ridge is there. Here's our tropical wave coming off of Africa. And as we move forward, that tropical wave 2 goes poof.

[00:08:46]There's again very little to no reflection here even on the Canadian model, which means right now there's a 10% chance. The chances may fluctuate from time to time over the next couple of days. But again, the overall trend is not something that really has my attention yet. At most, in worst case scenarios, this could become a tropical depression. But I mean that is a 1% chance of that even occurring. Maybe a 5% at most and it's not very likely. The reason why we're seeing a lot of hostility in the main development region as well as the Caribbean and much of the Atlantic is for again one thing that we're seeing is that is always competing with the tropical Atlantic this time of the year is climatology.

[00:09:30]Climatology tells us that okay for this time of the year is the vertical wind shear supposed to be here are things playing out as what we're supposed to see climatology right in this sense things are playing out in a way that is more hostile than not and we can see that here on the vertical windshar plot uh over the next uh well initializing this uh for this afternoon you can see a lot of vertical wind shear across the Caribbean that's all orange and red indicating vertical wind shear greater than 40 to 50 knots. We have a little bit of vertical wind shear also up here in the subtropics. That's why that area is really not favorable at all. But going forward, you will see uh as that tropical wave does try to get going, yep, the vertical wind shear is going to stay with us in the main development region. You can see a belt of very enhanced wind shear over the Caribbean that is at least 50 knots or greater.

[00:10:25]Some of that shear comes in out of the southwest as this tropical wave is trying to run or move take a move towards the west northwest and it's going to run into the belt of vertical windshar. Uh and you're probably wondering what vertical windshar is.

[00:10:40]It's basically wind direction change with height. So if we actually pull up a plot sounding here and average sounding over the Caribbean, we can see how wind shear fundament fundamentally works in the Caribbean. So we in the Caribbean we have typical trade winds right not at the surface but in the deep layers all the way up to about 400 millibars we have easterly flow but the problem is typically with tropical waves or tropical storms if not even hurricanes um it uses a pretty good chunk of the atmosphere. So in the upper levels you end up seeing westerly winds aoft. So you're seeing winds basically do this.

[00:11:19]They shift direction and that is wind shear that is completely detrimental and destructive to any tropical waves or storms that try to develop. Another thing on this sounding too that really stands out is the deep vertical column is also very dry, much drier than it should be this time of the year as well.

[00:11:38]Cuz when you get vertical wind shear, some of the air tends to sink into lower levels and dry out the atmosphere. And so the ending result is dry air coming off of Africa on top of sinking air from higher levels really dries out the atmosphere column here making things not favorable this time of the year. So that's what we're dealing with right now and that's been the caveat to all of this and that's why the season has not woken up as what people might think for the month of July. Typically, we should see our first name storm in late June into early July. And so, we have had our first name storm. That was Arthur. Uh, but that was a brief system in itself off of Texas. And so, putting this into motion, you can see the vertical wind shear overall does not lighten up at all. We still see again this vertical wind shear out of the southwesterly and westerly direction. Although we do start seeing our easterly um upper level monsoon flow increasing off of Africa.

[00:12:40]Whether or not will that really help to push any away uh from the westerly direction here is hard to say. But we do have a tut cell right here. We have another tut cell right here. We have another tut cell right here. And to the south of this we end up seeing this strip of southwesterly and westerly vertical wind shear preventing any tropical development. So, as it stands now on a meteorological perspective, and in my own opinion, while the two areas that we are watching closely uh across the Atlantic that have a 10 and 20% chance, I really don't think they're going to fare very well in the next few days. And I would not be surprised if the National Hurricane Center in about 3 days takes away that area, that AOI or area of interest off of Africa. When you look at the deep layer moisture plot here, anything in brown tells us that the deep layer column is very dry.

[00:13:34]There's not much moisture in the atmosphere available for tropical formation. Anything in green and teal colors denotes a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. So you can see right here, this is a tropical wave. Okay, another tropical wave way off the screen over here. We got some moisture over the northwestern Caribbean, but over in between, lots of dry air, lots of Saharan air layer coming off of Africa.

[00:14:02]So, putting this into motion, we can see with what ends up happening here in the next many days, all this dry air just overwhelms much of the main development region. So, what you end up seeing here is a tropical wave that barrels straight into this dry wall of air on top of vertical windshar, helping to shove that drier air into the inner core structure or whatever structure does try to develop. And you really don't end up with a tropical wave at all. You can't even see it on here. In fact, it's nearly impossible. If this is the tropical wave right here, it is really separated. Lots of dry air down uh off towards the north, west, and south of the wave. Really not an optimal position for anything to form with more drier air eventually developing towards the east of that off of Africa. Maybe down the road things might change a little bit where we do get more aggressiveness in the modeling for more tropical wave activity coming off of Africa with more thunderstorm activity, more rising motion. That's because of destructive interference to the El Nino pattern and an El Nino base state that we're seeing a more asymmetrical wave 2 pattern that develops in the velocity potential anomaly where we don't get a very coherent MJO signal. So therefore the overall climatology background state could favor maybe maybe maybe maybe and I mean a one to 5% chance for tropical development towards the very very very very end of July into early August. But I'm saying that very lightly because as you know the background state in the Atlantic is not really ideal and it's not looking very ideal given the fact with what I'm forecasting seasonally with how this hurricane season is going to project and how uh CSU is projecting that's Colorado State University.

[00:15:55]They're predicting very few name storm or very little name storms I should say and that's just kind of how it's going to play out for the rest of the season I believe. Here's a look at it from the obser or from our ensemble forecast.

[00:16:09]This is from the AI version of the European ensemble. You can see again some signal here for tropical development. But as you know all these lines are teal blue and dark blue indicating tropical depression force like winds. We're not looking at major tropical development with this wave along the eastern seabboard, but it is something to monitor in days to come for any people that live and that are watching this video along the uh the Carolina coast. Then we have another area of interest like we mentioned, but all look at all these models. They just rip this into shreds. It doesn't even make itself into the subtropical region of the Atlantic. It's just not really a good background state of the atmosphere right now. unfavorable conditions. And we can see this too on the European Ensemble. Stronger confidence a little bit on our AOI off the Florida coast.

[00:17:00]Lesser confidence and lesser potential with our wave that's coming off of Africa. You can see most of these tracks really just rip the storm into pieces and it really doesn't survive its uh wrath across the MDR into the subtropical Atlantic. And we have very little to no confidence. Actually, we don't have any confidence at all with that tropical wave off of Africa on the Google Deep Mind AI forecast, which has proven very well thus far with tropical formation. We've it has done a very good job at projecting and forecasting Bobby, which is a ongoing typhoon in the Western Pacific has done very good at projecting that system very well. So, we can rely on this very much with very little signal on the AI version, Google DeepMind AI over the southeastern United States. meaning the chances here are fairly small. But anyways, before I do close out this tropical weather outlook and discussion, a special outlook this afternoon, I would really absolutely appreciate you all to please subscribe to the channel. I'm going through a lot of rough times right now with a job situation that that has occurred yesterday. I lost my job at Costco. I'm not saying this to get more support on YouTube. I'm not saying this to get more subscribers, to get more money, but it's a job that I was chasing over the last few years. Got the job and now was resigned from that job unintentionally because of many issues that I cannot explain in today's video. So, if you all can please support by becoming a member today on the YouTube channel to at least chase this as my full-time job as a YouTube career as a YouTube job, please consider doing so. It's not that hard.

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