Putin Harshly Warns Trump Against Further Iran Attacks; Russia Warns Europe Risks World War; Donbas

追加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]Good day. Today is Thursday, 30th April, 2026.

[00:00:05]And before I proceed with this program, let me remind you again to tick the like button and check your subscription to this channel if once you've watched this program, you decide that you like what you've heard and you wish to indicate that fact. Now, over the last 24 36 hours, there's been a series of important decisions and statements apparently made by two presidents of two of the most powerful countries in the world, the United States and Russia. And as it turns out, a telephone conversation between these two presidents, the president of the United States and Russia. That telephone call having taken place yesterday.

[00:00:59]Now, this call between Putin and Trump has attracted a certain amount of attention, but I noticed with interest nowhere near the amount of attention that calls between these two leaders used to do, say, a year ago, after President Trump was inaugurated president for the second time, he and Putin had a serious series of conversations which lasted through the first half of 2025.

[00:01:38]They culminated eventually in a meeting between Putin and Trump in Anchorage in August 2025.

[00:01:48]All of these meetings, all of these conversations were the subject of an enormous amount of excited and interested and in some cases at least in Europe especially and in Ukraine too, very worried commentary and there was criticisms, implied criticisms and often great anger, especially directed at Donald Trump. But I should say that there has also been a certain amount of anger directed at Vladimir Putin over these contacts. And to a certain extent there still is. Anyway, all this, as I said, culminated in the meeting between the two men in August 2025, the meeting in Anchorage, and then the pace of contacts and meetings between Putin and Trump seemed to slow down and the meetings, or rather the contacts, they're all telephone calls, began to become more contentious.

[00:02:55]ious and well after the attack on Putin's residence at Valdai in December 2025.

[00:03:10]The contacts all but stopped. There was a very contentious conversation between Putin and Trump in March. This was shortly after the US attack on Iran.

[00:03:28]Trump called Putin mostly, it seems, to discuss the attack.

[00:03:35]Putin made it absolutely clear that he was strongly opposed to the attack that had taken place. reading the readout that the Russians provided or if you prefer the summary of the call provided by Ushakov, Putin's foreign affairs spokesman, it was clear that the call did not go at all well and well then we had no further calls after that. And that call in March attracted far less attention than the calls that took place a year before. And the call that took place yesterday attracted very little international attention.

[00:04:24]Indeed, Trump himself mentioned the call. He said that it had been a very good call and that he thought that the conflict in Ukraine um was close to a negotiated resolution.

[00:04:39]As we will see in a moment, there is absolutely nothing in the Russian account of the call that supports that conclusion. Just saying. But anyway, Trump discussed it but rather briefly.

[00:04:55]The Russians have provided a much fuller account. But it's perhaps worth saying that by the by now interest the kind of interest that these calls once attracted has dwindled well I won't say to nothing but to far less than was previously the case.

[00:05:20]Well, there may be some justification of that. We are no closer, as we will see, to any kind of resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.

[00:05:30]But this call that took place yesterday was unusual in some respects.

[00:05:37]Firstly, I believe I am right in saying that this was only the second in the series of calls between the Americans and the Russians which have been initiated by the Russian side. Um the Americans have initiated the overwhelming majority of the cause. Trump, in other words, called Putin.

[00:06:06]The only previous occasion when I can remember that it was Putin who called Trump was back in the autumn when there were reports that the Americans were about to supply Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

[00:06:28]and Putin telephoned Trump to warn Trump that if the United States went ahead with that, it would be the end of relations between Russia and the United States. From that moment on, the Americans and the Russians would have nothing further to talk about, and the Russians would consider the United States straightforwardly a hostile, even enemy country. And Trump, in fact, backed off. He's decided that he would not supply Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine after all. It's an open question whether this was ever a serious plan. He proposed a summit meeting with Putin in Budapest, but a few days later he called it all off and everything appeared to fizzle out. Well, the call that took place yesterday was also initiated by the Russians and the Russians have confirmed this.

[00:07:39]Ushakov Putin's spokesman has said as much and this always provides context.

[00:07:49]It tells us who it is who wants to speak to the other and the fact that it is the Russians who are telling us and telling us openly that it was Putin who telephoned Trump.

[00:08:06]tells us that it was Putin, the Russians, who wanted to say something to Trump. And when you go to Ushikov's account, his summary, it becomes very quickly obvious what the call was in fact about. This is the first call that I can think of between Putin and Trump other than the one in March which did not have the question of Ukraine center stage.

[00:08:49]What very clearly happened is that Putin met with Arashi, the Iranian foreign minister in St. Petersburg on Monday.

[00:09:03]He was accompanied to this meeting by Foreign Minister Lavrov and importantly by Admiral Costakov, the head of Russian military intelligence.

[00:09:21]The Russians and the Iranians obviously had a very detailed discussion about the situation in the conflict between Iran and the United States.

[00:09:35]There's been ample evidence which I've discussed in many programs that the Russians have been providing assistance to the Iranians and in my opinion the presence of Kostakov at this meeting with Putin and Arashi settles the matter conclusively.

[00:09:56]And following that meeting and following the discussion which took place between Putin and Arashi and no doubt between Arashi and other Russian officials including I am guessing military officials.

[00:10:22]The Russians decided that the moment had come to call the Americans at the very highest possible level, the level of presidents and to deliver a warning. And the warning is set out clearly in Ushakov's summary.

[00:10:46]And the warning, the warning reads as follows.

[00:10:54]The president of Russia, I'm taking this from the Kremlin website, the president of Russia pointed out that if the United States and Israel resume military action against Iran, this will inevitably lead to extremely adverse consequences.

[00:11:16]not only for Iran and its neighbors, but also for the entire international community.

[00:11:26]Putin stressed that a ground operation on Iranian territory would be particularly unacceptable and dangerous.

[00:11:41]That is the message that the Russians wanted to convey to President Trump. And immediately prior to this warning that Putin gave Trump, we're told by Ushakov Ushakov that Putin said this to Trump. Vladimir Putin believes that Trump was right to extend the ceasefire for Iran.

[00:12:11]This Putin believes gives negotiations a further chance and helps stabilize the overall situation.

[00:12:24]So what happened? What obviously happened was this.

[00:12:30]There is a ceasefire.

[00:12:33]There is this meeting between Putin and Arakshi.

[00:12:38]Kstikov is in on the meeting. The Russians have been providing military assistance to the Iranians. They've certainly been providing extensive technical and intelligence advice to the Iranians, having heard what the Iranians have said, and having noted Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire, Putin called Trump and told him, "Under no circumstances restart this war again.

[00:13:17]There must be no further missile strikes, no further bombing raids on Iran.

[00:13:25]If you do something like this, it will affect the entire international community as well as all of the states in the Persian Gulf.

[00:13:41]in simple English, it will backfire badly on you.

[00:13:49]And if you are still thinking about a ground invasion of Iran, put that idea right out of your head.

[00:14:04]It is dangerous and unacceptable.

[00:14:09]And the word unacceptable is there in Putin's in the Kremlin's readout.

[00:14:17]And that word being there means that it is unacceptable to Russia. Now, I have said in several programs that one of the things that makes this particular conflict, one of the several things that makes this particular conflict different from other conflicts that the United States has been involved in since the end of the Cold War, the conflicts in Yugoslavia, the attacks on Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. here is that th this time the United States has attacked a country Iran which has a great power ally and backer.

[00:15:10]That great power is of course Russia though there is every reason to believe that the Chinese are also there in the background.

[00:15:23]So though it would be a mistake to say that the conflict between the United States and Iran is a proxy war between the United States and Russia.

[00:15:40]It is nonetheless a war in which the Russians have a significant part and that of course gives them leverage over the Iranians but also over the Americans and it opens the way for Putin to make to give the warnings that he did. What Putin is saying to Trump is that if you attack Iran again, the Iranians will conduct missile and drone strikes across the Middle East again.

[00:16:25]And we will be assisting them which will make those attacks orders of magnitude more effective with the consequences that you know. And if you are so reckless as to start an operation against a ground operation against Iran, seizing islands in the Persian Gulf, landing troops on the Iranian mainland, infiltrating forces deep inside Iran for whatever purpose, say, for example, to try to seize Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium.

[00:17:17]Well, that is totally unacceptable to Russia. You won't just have the Iranians to contend with. You will have the Russians to contend with as well. and the Russians will give to the Iranians whatever they need in order to repel this attack upon themselves.

[00:17:42]It is a stark warning and it is a warning made by a country which has already played I would suggest a significant role in the events of the last few weeks in the Middle East and which is the ability to change and shape them further and well we're not told exactly exactly how Trump responded. And of course, the problem also is that, as is always the way, the Russians like to couch their warnings in careful language. And one wonders sometimes whether um Trump always understands the careful language that the Russians use. But anyway, the readout goes on to say, "Donald Trump outlined his assessment of the outcome of the concluded phase of the armed confrontation as well as his views on the current difficult situation facing Iran and its leadership." Now, notice the words. Donald Trump outlined his assessment of the outcome of the concluded phase of the armed confrontation which may suggest that Trump gave Putin to understand that in fact there is not going to be there won't be further missile and drone and bomb strike.

[00:19:30]against Iran that all of the previous reports about destroying Iran's civilian infrastructure and all of that have been shelved and that of course is consistent with some reports that are now appearing in the US media that the President Donald Trump has told his officials that as far as he's concerned the situation now boils down to a choice between two options. Either maintain the seat blockade of Iran indefinitely and try to suffocate Iran into economic collapse hoping that this will achieve the original objectives of the attack which is of course regime change. or in the alternative to simply call it a day and to pull all the forces out. And by the way, there are now some reports that one US Navy carrier, perhaps the Gerald Ford, is once again um sailing away from this conflict zone, perhaps back to the United States.

[00:20:55]Though I should say I have not myself seen these reports and seen confirmation of these reports and I'm not fully sure that they are true. But anyway that Trump has told his inner circle that as I said the option is to just end the confrontation, declare victory, leave Iran essentially in control of the strait of Hormuz.

[00:21:23]Leave the issue of uranium enrichment unresolved.

[00:21:28]Leave the current political and political and governmental structure in Iran where it is and just go home and declare victory. Um there is actually and I'm going to say this something to be said for the last option. Um, Iran has obviously been badly knocked about, but it would emerge in a much stronger position.

[00:22:01]It would still retain control of the straight of Hormuz.

[00:22:06]It would be in a position to levy tolls on tankers that transited the straight of Hormuz.

[00:22:15]That would probably mean that oil prices would remain higher at least for a time.

[00:22:23]But probably the onward rise of those oil prices would then abate and in time they would fall back.

[00:22:38]And in the meantime, of course, the United States as an oil and gas exporter would be a beneficiary at least to a certain extent from the higher oil and gas prices.

[00:22:58]So, one can just about see how this might be an outcome that might not be a disaster in immediate terms for the United States. It would leave the Israelis frustrated and angry and feeling that they've been left hanging out to dry. It would leave the Persian Gulf states in an equally difficult position, forced, no doubt, to come to terms with a far more self-confident Iran.

[00:23:41]But if one thinks about it in tough realist terms, it's perhaps not actually quite such a bad outcome. Ultimately, the United States, as Trump himself has never ceased to point out, needs unaffect un an unaffected transit of tankers through the straight of Hormuz less than other countries like the European countries, like the Asian countries do. It's more their problem than it is America's problem.

[00:24:26]So why loosely over it? Well, I don't think this is things are ever that simple. I don't think politically it would be easy for Trump to walk away.

[00:24:41]Not by any means. It doesn't seem to be what he is doing at the moment.

[00:24:50]But one way or the other, I sensed for some time since in fact he first declared the ceasefire that there was little to be gained from his point of view in renewing an aerial bombing and missile campaign against Iran which was not achieving any of its declared objectives. ives but which was reducing rapidly America's inventories of weapons and exposing American military deficiencies in the Middle East to full view.

[00:25:40]I made that point the very first day after the ceasefire was announced.

[00:25:50]Then of course Trump made all sorts of threats and there seemed to be further military deployments taking place and we had the all sorts of strange episodes and extraordinary comments on True Social and I did think for a time that maybe Trump had was throwing caution to the winds and was going to double down and we start the war all over again.

[00:26:24]But as of today, it looks as if it was my first assessment that was the correct one that Trump, having thought it through, has indeed decided whichever of the two options it is that he finally takes the C blockade or the total pull out that there is nothing to be gained.

[00:26:53]either for the United States or from him or for him from again attacking Iran.

[00:27:04]And that word concluded in the Russian readout concluded phase of the armed confrontation suggests that that was what he led Putin to believe over the course of this call.

[00:27:31]The Russians Ushakov says that it was a friendly call. The exchange between the two presidents was conducted in a friendly manner and was frank and business-like.

[00:27:46]very different from the language that Ushakov gave following the call between Putin and Trump in March when it was all about Frank and there was nothing said about the call being friendly.

[00:28:06]Well, this time it might be different because Putin this time might have heard from Trump what he wanted to hear. That the United States has no plan and does not intend to attack Iran again. That there is not going to be more missile and bomb strikes against Iran. that there is not going to be a ground operation against Iran, that this Russian warning is in a sense redundant because the United States does not intend to do any of these things again.

[00:28:55]Well, if that is correct, if that is correct, then I think it is legitimate to say that the Iranians, backed by the Russians and to a great extent also by the Chinese, but perhaps mostly by the Russians, that the Iranians have seen off this latest challenge from the United states that they have won in some respects a more conclusive victory or more conclusive much more conclusive success than they did following the 12-day war in June of last year. that this time they have demonstrated to the US their toughness and resiliency and the fact that they do have allies, specifically the Russians, and that the Russians will act to assist them and that the United States faced with that, faced with the depletion of its arsenals, faced with a potentially intractive ible conflict has indeed decided to back off.

[00:30:17]In which case, by the way, we may be drawing towards the end of this confrontation between the United States and Iran. I say that because I don't believe that the United States actually can sustain this blockade of Iran for very long. There's actually been an excellent article again about all of this by Larry Johnson in his invaluable blog Sonar 21.

[00:30:55]And Larry Johnson, I think, makes a point which I admit had not occurred to me.

[00:31:03]Let's say that ships continue to transit from Iran through the straight of Hmouth sailing to Malaysia which is apparently where they initially go where they unload their cargos of oil which then go under onto eventually other tankers which then sell on to China. Let's say that the Iranians continue to do that.

[00:31:34]There's been some reports that the Americans have warned off tankers and that some tankers have heeded these American warnings and turned round and returned back to port in Iran.

[00:31:52]I have seen no evidence, no corroboration of this anywhere in the British media where I would expect to see it. And personally, I don't believe this is the case. What I think is much more likely is that ships exiting the straight of Hormuz on their way to Malaysia are switching off their transponders, making it more difficult for the Americans to find out where they are. But put that aside. Let's imagine that these ships, which are apparently mostly Iranianowned and controlled, continue to sail through the straight of Hormuz and continue to sail eastward.

[00:32:46]The United States Navy is already facing significant logistical challenges by maintaining the sea blockade. We've had already all of those reports about American seammen on some of these ships, notably the USS Tripoli being supplied with reduced rations.

[00:33:11]But Larry Johnson makes the point that if the United States does indeed stop a ship that's breaking the blockade and does indeed bought the ship, then after the US Navy has taken control of the ship, they must escort, they must provide an escort to this seized Iranian ship.

[00:33:41]to take it to port uh to take it to whatever port that the United States controls.

[00:33:51]And well, I think that has to be right.

[00:33:54]Even if you leave a party of say marines on board a tanker in control of the tanker and its crew and pull all your ships away. Well, you always run the risk that the Iranians might send some of their fast boats, for example, and might try to regain control or that you might somehow lose control of the ship. You want to keep a warship close by in the area to escort the ship to port. But of course, every time you do that, you are reducing the naval force that you have in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman. If every seized tanker must be accompanied by a US warship, you will soon run out of US warships.

[00:34:57]The US has apparently around 20 warships in the area. Um well, one of them is an aircraft carrier, the USS Lincoln.

[00:35:10]Perhaps there's another aircraft carrier, too. I'm not quite sure where the George HW Bush is, but you're not going to use tank uh aircraft carriers to escort tankers in this way. You have to use destroyers.

[00:35:25]Destroyers already represent tremendous overkill for a task of this kind. But what other sort of ship does the United States in practical terms have? The aircraft carriers cannot function without destroyer escorts.

[00:35:47]So eventually as all the esc the destroyers are escorting tankers away the aircraft carriers have to be withdrawn as well. So this is ultimately an unsustainable an unsustainable sea blockade.

[00:36:08]And sooner or later in some form or other the United States might recognize that fact and formally call it off. In which case we will be indeed at the end of this affair.

[00:36:29]Now I'm not going to discuss the further implications of that in this program though I believe that they are indeed enormous but I think since we started on the topic of USRussia relations in this program let us stick with that because it wasn't just the situation in the Persian Gulf that the two presidents talked about. Putin telephoned Trump because he wanted to talk about the situation with Iran.

[00:37:11]But Trump perhaps somewhat embarrassed by Putin's warning.

[00:37:25]nonetheless quickly wanted to move the topic away from Iran and brought us back to the situation with respect to Ukraine and this is what Ushakov's read out about that says a regarding a settlement in Ukraine the US president emphasized the importance of an early sessation of hostilities and his readiness to do everything in his power to facilitate this. He's authorized representatives, he means Witkoff and Kushner, will continue contacts with both Moscow and Kiev. At this point, I should say that Witkoff and Kushner were expected to travel to Kiev a few weeks ago, but never showed. And there were rumors that they might come to Moscow, but again, they never showed. And by now, I don't think the Russians take these two gentlemen terribly seriously. Just saying.

[00:38:40]And then Ushakov continues, "Donald Trump said he believes that an agreement that would bring the conflict in Ukraine to an end is close."

[00:38:55]Well, here the Russians disagree and this was not perhaps said by Putin to Trump and it's not in Push in Ushikov's summary, but Peskov was asked about it. Pascov being of course Putin's spokesman and he said the following. Of course, a single phone call can hardly improve the global situation because unfortunately the concentration of conflicts is so great and the consequences of a whole series of conflicts for the international situation and the global economy are so serious that it is of course very difficult to stop these trends in an instant.

[00:39:55]So that doesn't look as if the Russians are expecting anything to change very much. They don't expect that a single phone call is going to result in any sudden movement to negotiate the end of the conflict. And about that of course they are right. But anyway, um after that, Ushakov continued replying to a question from Trump.

[00:40:32]Vladimir Putin described the current situation along the line of contact where Russian forces retain the strategic initiative and are pushing back the opposing side. And that is absolutely correct by the way and I will return to it shortly. And then they both apparently agreed that Vladimir Zalinski is the person who's making who's causing all the trouble.

[00:41:01]Both Putin and Trump expressed broadly similar views on the behavior of the Kiev regime led by Zalinski which incited and supported by Europeans is pushing a course aimed at prolonging the conflict. The Russian leader stated plainly that Kiev is resorting to overtly terrorist methods targeting exclusively civilian facilities on Russian territory.

[00:41:31]So, it's all Zilinsk's fault that the war continues.

[00:41:36]Trump and Putin supposedly both agree about that.

[00:41:43]Though, of course, the Russians quietly know otherwise and know perfectly well that it is the United States which could end the war at any time.

[00:42:01]But he's not doing so.

[00:42:04]After my discussion of this readout, I will turn to what the vice chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dimmitri Medved, has also said today and I am sure that he is saying it partly in response to this very call.

[00:42:27]And then Putin said according to Ushakov and again this is in the Russian readout that the goals of the special military operation will be achieved in any event.

[00:42:45]At the same time, this outcome would preferably be reached through negotiations for which Zalinski must respond constructively to the proposals that have been put forward in repeatedly including by the US side. That is of course whatever agreement it was that was reached in Anchorage.

[00:43:08]And well, Trump has not been able to get Zalinski to agree to do that. Zalinski himself is never going to agree to do that. Putin knows that perfectly well. But notice again his words, the goals of the special military operation will be achieved in any event. Putin has used that same identical formula in discussions with Western leaders ever since March 2022, shortly after the start of the special military operation.

[00:43:54]I remember that he used those very words over the course of a telephone conversation he had with Olaf Schulz and Emanuel Mron in which they both tried to get him to agree to a ceasefire and he refused and if you put aside all the things that we've been hearing ever since all the talks and discussions s all the speculations about Putin's intentions, all the accusations of weakness which perennially and continuously get made about him which I confess I find bewildering.

[00:44:37]If you put all that aside, what you find is that Putin continues to say the same thing now that he said all the way back then. He set out the goals of the special military operation.

[00:44:55]He's not interested in a ceasefire. The goals of the special military operation will be achieved either because Ukraine agrees to them as it seemed it was about to do in Istanbul in April 2022.

[00:45:16]or alternatively because it is defeated on the battlefields.

[00:45:25]So no real change, nothing new on the question of Ukraine whatsoever.

[00:45:36]Trump came with no new ideas.

[00:45:40]This was not really the main topic of the conversation and Putin was not giving an inch.

[00:45:52]In fact, Putin's consistency throughout the entire special military operation in sticking to his objectives is both extremely unusual in diplomatic terms and actually very remarkable.

[00:46:21]most other world leaders who have come under the kind of pressure that Putin and Russia has done would have bent a little or probably actually quite a lot but the reality is Putin has never done so anyway that's that telephone conversation between Putin and Trump.

[00:46:57]Time to turn to what Medved has said.

[00:47:02]And Medved was talking to a meeting. It was a meeting of the knowledge first educational marathon.

[00:47:16]And well, unlike Putin, Medved uses, shall we say, far less inhibited language.

[00:47:31]According to him, for example, the European Union is currently led by idiots who are destroying what was built over decades. I've just taken that sentence directly from the Russian news agency TAS which um provides us with its account of what Medivv says but there are direct quotes Moscow's relations with western countries are developed the way Moscow's relations with the western countries are developing show that Zar Alexander III was right in what he said about Russia's as allies. We used to look at our relations with, this is a direct quote, with our neighbors, the western world through roset tinted spectacles.

[00:48:22]Alexander III was right when he said that Russia only has two allies, its army and navy.

[00:48:32]The Europeans desire the collapse of the Russian state. They don't understand much of what we say. They don't want to hear us. And frankly speaking, they desire our collapse.

[00:48:48]Russia's conflict with the West is existential.

[00:48:53]Our current conflict with the Western world is existential. It's a matter of existence.

[00:48:59]I unfortunately I have no illusions at this point as to what will come next.

[00:49:06]European leaders keep repeating the unfounded mantra that war with Russia is inevitable.

[00:49:13]I don't know where that came from, but it is a real mantra and they are repeating it every day. Russia will definitely attack us. As for Europe, we don't have any aggressive plans. Still, this spiral continues to unfold with weapons being produced in large numbers and almost all leaders in Europe, including in its leading countries claiming we realize we need to prepare to repel aggression and war is inevitable.

[00:49:50]You must understand you. He means the people. Medved means the people he's addressing from the knowledge first society. You must understand where this path leads to.

[00:50:09]And then he went on to say that dozens of Western countries are directly involved in the current conflict with Russia. Ukraine is not our only adversary.

[00:50:21]It's also dozens of Western countries that are taking a direct part in the war against our country. I would like to point out that it's direct participation, not hybrid involvement as they outline targets for strikes, provide various weapons to our enemy and in fact guide its actions. the European, they are just idiots who are destroying what has been done in the decades since the European Coal and Steel Community turned into the present day European Union. The European Coal and Steel Community is one of the original founding blocks of today's European Union. It was set up for the record way back in the 1950s.

[00:51:12]As for the United States, well, Medved thinks that they are perhaps rather better organized, but that's only by comparison with the Europeans.

[00:51:30]They too are Russia's opponents.

[00:51:35]America is our main geopolitical rival.

[00:51:40]However, that's not the point. We all understand that the United what the United States is about. Its nuclear warheads are targeted at us and ours at them. This is what determines the basis of our bilateral relations.

[00:52:00]And he goes on to say that um Russia sorry that um it's funny to watch how relations between the United States and Europe are developing.

[00:52:15]Washington's spats with countries across the world supposedly will all end in Russia's victory.

[00:52:25]A country that starts conflicts cannot be an effective mediator. And of course he here he means an effective mediator in the Ukraine conflict. In fact it's not easy to handle such a role. There can be no patented mediators although some claim this role. A country that steal presidents and start conf starts conflicts cannot act as an effective mediator in all situations.

[00:52:57]The administration, the Trump administration is caught between these two forces, between the devil and the deep blue sea, between Congress and Europe. So it's not free to choose its approaches.

[00:53:19]So there's no point in expecting the Americans to come up with any diplomatic solutions because they're hardly mediators.

[00:53:29]They are Russia's enemies and to the extent that the current administration in Washington thinks of itself as a potential mediator. It can never fulfill that role because both its allies in Europe and even more Congress, the hardliners in Congress will never allow it to happen. And well, Medved has other troubling things to say. He says that um the risk of world war has never been greater. The global situation today is similar to what it was like before the first world war and in part before the second world war. Local conflicts often precede global confrontation. Unfortunately, the risk of a nuclear apocalypse is real. I'm often reproached for using tough rhetoric and speaking of a nuclear apocalypse. Unfortunately, it is really possible.

[00:54:46]Those who don't realize it are either dreamers or fools. However, we would like to avoid it.

[00:54:57]And he then finishes by saying that no deals will resolve conflicts. Deals is of course a slap at Donald Trump who always talks about deals.

[00:55:14]Bargaining techniques rarely work in international affairs. It's actually possible to trade things but on a very limited scale.

[00:55:24]bargaining schemes don't work in geopolitics.

[00:55:29]Well, of course, we've been saying that on the Duran for well a very long time, long before Trump was reelected. Some can use them to earn money or make some assessments, but a settlement cannot be reached through deals. And then he did provide some hope for the future at least for Russia. Russia's victory in the SMO will pave the way for Russia's stable development.

[00:56:05]Its revenue growth and housing solutions as well as solutions to the problem every family is facing including our country's demographic issues. It's about a health care system and a modern educational system. The majority of Russians are look forward looking forward to one thing victory which would bring the military campaign to an end but not much needs to be done both at the front and inside the country to make it happen. So these on the face of it look like two very different approaches.

[00:56:48]But I'm going to suggest that in this sense they're not really. If you go back to Putin's conversation with Trump, it contains a warning against a further attack on Iran and it takes a completely uncompromising position on the conflict in Ukraine.

[00:57:13]If you go to Midv's comments, well, he uses much fiercer rhetoric, but ultimately he's saying much the same thing. The Europeans are hopeless.

[00:57:33]They are committed to conflict with Russia. This conflict has the potential to escalate into outright war. It might even result in nuclear confrontation.

[00:57:50]We must take therefore an unflinching uncompromising position.

[00:57:58]And Putin says that the objectives of the special military operation must all be achieved no matter what. And Medved says that the Russian people must dedicate themselves to achieving victory.

[00:58:19]It's I would suggest a classic example of the soft cop and hard cop game in action. The one Putin who is of course the president uses measured language. The other midv who is the vice chairman of the security council uses much tougher much more hardline rhetoric even when if you unpack it he is essentially saying the same thing. So there it is.

[00:59:02]The Russians have told Trump, "No more war against Iran."

[00:59:13]Trump seems to be listening. Maybe he made the decision independently of what the Russians are saying.

[00:59:23]Maybe he made his decision based on the information he is being provided by his military. I noticed that in discussions in Congress today, today US defense secretary, who is that war secretary Pete Hegith bristled when he said that the United States was in a quagmire with respect to Iran. But it's not difficult or rather it's difficult as far as I can see genuinely to argue the point. As I said, I don't know to what extent the Russians have the role of the Russians has played a role in this American decision, but I don't believe it is an insignificant one. I think that the knowledge that the Russians are involved has played a part and has had a role in deciding this affair.

[01:00:36]And on Ukraine, the Russians determinedly, confidently press on towards victory.

[01:00:50]Any and all expectations of a negotiated resolution are gone.

[01:00:59]Zalinski refuses to shift. Trump caught between Congress and the Europeans, as Medved says, is unable to shift him. Trump says how pleased he is because Putin announced an Easter ceasefire.

[01:01:21]Putin suggests, well, why not in that case of a ceasefire on Victory Day, May the 9th, Putin, by the way, here is teasing Trump. Because what Trump probably doesn't realize is that the Ukrainians no longer celebrate Victory Day on the same day that the Russians do, which is May the 9th. So for that reason, if for no other, the Ukrainians will not ex will not agree to this ceasefire proposal for one day, which the Russians, Putin obviously doesn't really mean seriously.

[01:02:06]By the way, on this issue, can I just perhaps quickly say that people are misjudging the decision by the Russians, the Russian Defense Ministry to scale down the size of the military parade on Red Square for Victory Day. This is not because of recent Ukrainian drone attacks. It is because of a decision that was made way back in 2022 at the start of the miss uh of the special military operation.

[01:02:39]Back in 2022 on May 9th, 2022, the Russians conducted a victory day celebration with full pomp. The army was there, the tanks rolled, the aircraft flew overhead, there were missiles and rockets and all of those things. And it encountered a deluge of criticism inside of Russia itself. People were saying, "What are all these weapons doing on Red Square when they are needed on the front lines?"

[01:03:20]And the Russian authorities said that in future whilst the special military operation was underway, in order to avoid that sort of criticism being made again, the celebrations on Victory Day on Red Square would be scaled down. And that happened in 2023 and 2024.

[01:03:49]2025 was an exception because it is an anniversary, a decade anniversary of the end of the Second World War, which of course ended in 1945.

[01:04:11]So the Russians wanted on the occasion of that anniversary Well, to put up a big show, they're not as big as the previous one in 2015. Just saying.

[01:04:30]But with that celebration out of the way, they've gone back to the scaled down uh the scaled down presentation again this year. That is all there is to it.

[01:04:47]But this talk about a ceasefire um on May 9th, nobody in Moscow seriously believes that it is going to happen. So anyway, there it is. That is the reality. And I'm going to suggest that what it also means is that we are not going to see any further advance in USRussian relations. According to Ushakov, Putin and Trump again brought up the idea of economic relations and all of that. This is something that Trump apparently always comes back to.

[01:05:27]The Russians have never taken it especially seriously and they didn't take it particularly seriously this time either.

[01:05:38]As for the Battle France, the fighting continues.

[01:05:43]There's been a lot less news from the Zaporo front lines, which makes me think that there's been big events taking place there, which probably means a big Russian breakthrough. When there is silence about one of the battle lines, it is usually from both sides, it is usually because events are reaching a point of crisis. So that neither the side that is winning, which in Zaporia can only be the Russians, or the side that is losing, which in Zaporia can only be the Ukrainians.

[01:06:27]want to talk about it.

[01:06:30]And well, the Russians continue to make big inroads in Sunumi region where according to Raovka, the Russian newspaper based in Smolinsk, the Ukrainians are extremely short of troops.

[01:06:53]I am not sure by the way how many troops the Russians also have in Sunumi region.

[01:06:59]My sense is that these battles in Sunumi region and in northern Har region are being carried out with very low numbers of troops on either side. In Kensk there's more confirmation of Russian control of the east bank of the Oscol River.

[01:07:22]There are now reports that supply shortages, I mean food supply shortages are becoming a serious problem across the entire Ukrainian military.

[01:07:41]Well, I don't know fully all the truth about that, but the biggest events, the most dramatic events seem to be taking place in Constantinoka, especially with the fall of the villages of Ilinoka and Novo Novo Dimitroka.

[01:08:04]And our old friend Andre Marchko has been the first person now to talk specifically about an encirclement of the Ukrainian forces in Constantinfka.

[01:08:22]Our military have begun to form a kind of fire pocket around Constantinoka and are tightening the encirclement around the city.

[01:08:34]Naturally, the successes in Ilinovka and Novo Deitruka only confirm my conviction that Ukrainian troops could soon find themselves surrounded in the Constantinoka settlement.

[01:08:50]I have been saying that a cauldron was emerging in Constantin for several weeks now. Marotko who's very well connected has confirmed it and well there it is. Now this is we're now going to finish today's program. Let me remind you again to tick the like button and to check your subscription to this channel.

[01:09:23]Also, please remember to look us up on our various platforms, Locals, um, Rumble and, um, and Substack, and also to support us by Patreon and Subscribe Star and via our shop links under this video.

[01:09:49]I expect that in future programs I'm going to be discussing less the situation in the Middle East and I'm going to come closer to home and talk about what looks to me now the very rapidly developing crisis that we're seeing play out in Europe. But this is for another day. Let me remind you again says that I'll be back tomorrow and until then have a very good day.