Larry Johnson: One Strike on Kharg Could Ignite the Entire Gulf - Behind America

Hinzugefügt: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]Welcome back. We are joined by Larry Johnson, a former CI analyst to discuss the very dramatic developments taking place uh in the war against Iran. So uh yeah, first let me thank you for coming back on the program. It's good to see you again.

[00:00:15]>> Hey, always appreciate the invite, Glenn.

[00:00:18]So, uh I I wanted to well at least start by focusing on this uh Car Island because this is uh this handles uh 90% of uh Iran's oil export. So many commentators have been asking you know if this is really what can break the back of uh Iran's economy. So why isn't uh Trump going after this? Well, it appeared that you know we have reached this point now as we continue up this escalation ladder. Trump of well the United States has now bombed u island.

[00:00:54]Trump claims to have totally obliterated that's his words uh the milit the military facilities there. He did not touch the energy facilities uh I guess for good reasons. But he is threatening now that the oil installations are next unless Iran folds. uh that is um by opening up the straight of Hormuse uh how you assessing this situation because you know on one hand if it's a bluff Iran you know they they can't capitulate on the other hand if Trump goes through with this you know this is like the nuclear option of the energy wars so well what does all of this mean? I guess Donald Trump reminds me of a casino's favorite client, you know, the one that keeps coming in and spending lots of money and losing. Uh, that's Donald Trump. Um, this attack on Car Island, it just makes zero sense. Uh, no matter how you look at it, they did not attack the oil terminal. Well, that's the good news. Uh it this Iran reportedly has five oil terminals. So this is actually only one of them. So although it may pump the most oil or provide the most oil to a a tanker to, you know, sell sell south out through the straight. Um this is not, you know, if they destroyed this, this wouldn't be Iran's only uh source of potential revenue.

[00:02:28]But they bombed the uh the runway of the major airport. Um so you say, "Oh, good.

[00:02:37]That'll that'll keep Iran from using it." Except Iran really doesn't have an air force. So the there's also talk of the United States invading, you know, trying to occupy Car Island. Well, one of the ways you do that is you'd fly in troops or once the troops are parachuted in, you got to resupply them somehow.

[00:02:59]So, you'd need to land on the runway.

[00:03:00]Except this runway is like I was told 5,000 uh almost six 6,000 ft. And they the way they bombed it, uh it means that uh it's only good for 3,000 ft. Well, a C17 requires at least 3,500 ft to land. So, scratch the C17 and that leaves you with a slowflying C130.

[00:03:26]So, I mean, just it's like if you're planning a military operation on the island, you've now screwed yourself from the US standpoint. Uh Iran has made it very clear that if you attack our actual oil uh terminals and resources, we will attack those in the uh of our other Gulf neighbors. And there are, you know, there are at least uh 13 different targets that they've already identified.

[00:03:52]So Iran didn't react immediately or uh you know angrily last night when this happened or it happened early uh Saturday morning in Iran time. It was late Friday East Coast time. Uh but so this was it's like just lashing out to be lashing out. It's not part of a strategic picture because you got to sit back and say, what is Trump trying to accomplish?

[00:04:22]Well, what has been accomplished as a result of this attack on Iran is shut shutting down the straight of Hormuz.

[00:04:31]And in doing that, you you've now closed off 20% of the world's oil supply, 25% of the world's liquid natural gas, and 35% of the world's ura, which is needed for fertilizer, which you know uh about 75% of the arable land in the world is above the equator. So that means we're now in planting season. And you know, the 35% drop in the fertilizer is huge.

[00:05:00]That means there's some crops that aren't going to get planted or aren't going to grow. And then when it comes harvest time, that means food's not going to be harvested and there's going to be a drop in the food supply, the global food supply. So it literally can can affect billions of people. Uh on the gas front, uh the the prices now are rising very rapidly, even here in the United States. Uh I you know I've been monitoring it uh at my local gas station uh a week ago on Sunday. U I paid 50 cents more than I had the previous 5 days. So last Sunday it was 304.

[00:05:40]uh on on Wednesday uh the price went up uh to 319 and then on Thursday uh it was uh 324 and then yesterday it was 332 so it's essentially come up almost uh 80 cents uh in a week a little over a week um that is you know I'm fortunate I'm in a financial situation where that having to pay that amount of money increase.

[00:06:12]Okay, I prefer not to do it, but I can do it. But an estimated 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, which means they're they don't have a lot of spare cash. And so this is going to impact not only their bottom line, but then the real killer is on the diesel front that the price has gone up uh over a $150 and it's approaching $2. Well, every every truck that holds holds supplies for grocery stores, supplies for, uh, you know, the the hardware stores, uh, for Walmart, for Price Club, for any of these major, uh, you know, vendors, their their prices are going to go up and they the so when the fuel price goes up, it's going to get passed along to the consumer. So, again, the strategy comes back. So you're you're you're trying to uh heighten inflation around the world and in the course of doing that also u put in place a recession because what we know from history is every time this has happened in terms of spiking oil prices there has been a recession you know that varies the the length and the depth of it has varied but we've never had the situation where the entire Persian Gulf has been closed off as it and the shutdown of operations in the three you know three four critical countries there apart from uh Iran when you look at Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait uh and then uh uh Qatar and United Arab Emirates. Keep going to say Dubai and get it mixed up.

[00:07:58]So you know we're we're in uncharted territory as far as history goes. you have nothing to point back to and say, "Oh, yeah, this is what happened that time." So the the potential of this to create actually a global economic catastrophe is high. And so Trump's response now is to double down militarily except they have uh they're in a situation that they that the US cannot militarily defeat Iran. You can't do it from air. Air power has never won a war. And there was an Air Force general that testified in the United States a couple of weeks back that that admitted that. I mean that that history clearly shows um so you say well what about ground troops the the age in which you know 23 years ago the United States could assemble soldiers uh over the course of nine months at bases in Saudi Arabia. They were quite safe. They weren't facing drone strikes. They weren't facing missile strikes. Not today. You couldn't you could not do that. You could not assemble an army that would be required to take on Iran. Number one. Number two, the United States doesn't have that size of army. Total total current military strength is I 445,000 US Army and about 180,000 Marines.

[00:09:23]Uh you know, good luck. 600,000 against uh a million man army in in Iran that just you know doesn't work. So there are though u there are valid reports that they're deploying for two different numbers 20 a 2200 marine uh amphibious unit uh and then a 5,500 or 5,000. I don't care whether it's you know 2200 or 5,000. again, what are they going to do? The the notion that this is going to be like World War II where, you know, the the the Marines are in their watercraft and they're charging towards the shore and the ramp's going to come down and they're going to storm into F. That's not going to happen. Those craft would not even get close to Iran. They'd be blown out of the water.

[00:10:15]So, it's it's it's unclear how they're going to try to employ these Marines.

[00:10:19]you know, they could try to parachute them in someplace, but again, once you parachute them in, how do you resupply them and they're going to be through whatever ammunition and food and water they carry within a day? And so, if you can't resupply them, they're dead. Plus, his these American planners apparently are have not watched the what the war in Ukraine. And there's a real reason why you don't see mass movements of troops on either side. Because with drones combined with artillery, it it it it's impossible for soldiers to move in large units. They'll be decimated.

[00:11:01]Well, if one takes the Iranian uh oil off the market is one thing, but I'm just thinking that this mass uh Iranian retaliation. I mean, I think there's a reason why the Iranians haven't attacked the Gulf States uh energy facilities to such an extent because uh you know then it would be open season on the Iranian.

[00:11:24]But if the Americans go after this, why why would the Iran be restrained in any ways? then it should uh well just essential burn it all down and uh the Gulf States would essentially cease to exist at least the smaller ones. So it is uh it's a very crazy even threat to make. though and once making these threats it's often very difficult to climb down especially when you turn on the TV I think yeah Keith Kellogg was also coming out you know oh we should just take it over but you know one one thing is if if if the objective is to invade it but the alternative is of course just bombing it destroying it all but uh then you know the every energy facility in the Middle East would be on fire within the next few days so >> yes >> it just seems It's like an yeah insane escalation.

[00:12:17]But uh but Trump is under great pressure to do something though because now he's been you know committing himself to this rhetoric that uh you know you can open the straight of m you know ships should just go through it's not a big problem.

[00:12:31]Um but uh h how would you assess this though like how how can the US reopen the straight of moose?

[00:12:40]>> It can't be done. No, >> cannot. No, cannot be done. Well, it cannot be done with uh acceptable losses.

[00:12:50]Yeah, you you can militarily probably do it, maybe accomplish it, but the the the cost, the actual physical cost and manpower losses would be horrific. And in actual ships, uh they can't do it just from the air. I mean, there are caves and and tunnels all along the side of that coast. Um, you know, Alistister Crook has been there and seen it. Now, Iran's been preparing for this contingency for 30 years. Uh, you know, so they're not just a bunch of guys with a, you know, who built a wooden deck out on the side of a cliff with a machine gun. You know, that, you know, that's nonsense. If, uh, if you've not had a chance, uh, to watch the interview, uh, that, uh, Danny Davis did yesterday with Robert Barnes. Robert is an attorney, but he's he's well plugged in to the Trump administration through JD Vance.

[00:13:44]And what he's what he said is that Trump is now shut pushed away anybody like Tulsi Gabbard and JD Vance who have tried to counsel against the war in with Iran. He's only listening to those who are egging him on. Yeah, you can do this. Yeah, we're winning. Yeah, keep going. uh who aren't giving him actually an honest assessment. And we know, you know, we now know that uh the the battle is underway inside of DC uh between the let's call it the anti-war crowd and the let's go go all the way to Tran crowd.

[00:14:22]Uh so the first indicator was when Daniel uh when raging Ka raisin Kaine Dan Daniel Kaine the general in charge of the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff when the word got out that he had told Trump you know this is this this is not going to go the way you think it is or major obstacles major problems Trump ignored that. The next was the leak from the National Intelligence Council of their report, their their assessment that had been delivered to Trump a week before this saying, you know, you're not going to get regime change no matter what you do uh out of this. Um, and so the then when the leaks start coming out that other that Trump is pushing people away, it wasn't just Robert Barnes, but pushing people away or that u the losses the US is sustaining greater losses that are being reported. You know, that information is starting to get on to the press. So this this shows that there there's real disagreement within the government. They're not all pulling in the same direction on this. Um the the Pentagon's lies also are are are beginning to be exposed. You know that KC 135 that was shot down. Let me emphasize it was shot down. It did not crash. Um the Pentagon claimed that it you know it crashed. So you have to step back and say okay explain to me how did it crash? Planes can crash on land on takeoff because of an engine failure or they're too heavily loaded, but this didn't crash on takeoff. Or they can crash while landing because a heavy crosswinds or again uh too much weight on board or a broken u you know something some mechanical failure while they coming in for a final approach.

[00:16:20]But planes flying along at 25,000 ft, they just don't crash. Particularly if there's not bad weather, you know, they they just don't fall out of the sky.

[00:16:30]Well, this one got shot down, but so they're lying about that.

[00:16:36]This they are desperate to try to have a military solution. Trump has got it in his mind that he can he can win this and anybody that comes and tries to tell him different is getting shut out. So this is uh it's a it's like a King Lear situation. The madness of King Lear to go back to Shakespeare.

[00:16:59]>> Yeah. This uh the rhetoric from Trump is getting a bit uh wild again. He already declared victory >> which is uh if if you're threatening to attack Car Island and you know what the retaliation will be that is all energy facilities uh in the Gulf States will burn and energy markets and global economy goes down the toilet. You would make these threats uh you know if if you already won essentially this is in men immense escalation. But there's also other rhetoric though. We we heard that um well he tweeted out that uh Iran was uh about to take try to take over all of the Middle East unless the US had to attack which uh seems like um a desperate attempt to to make the war seem defensive or even legal. Uh because I think this is uh people look into these things. They don't necessarily look into it if there's a great success, but once there's a failure, people will look into these things. But also, one of the changes or interesting talking points now has been this Iranian sleeper cells. Uh >> oh, yeah.

[00:18:07]>> And the possible surprise attack on California. I, you know, I guess this is to, you know, brand Iran properly as a terrorist state that, you know, could also engage in terrorism against the United States. So, you know, why not link uh link them to September 11, you know, if you're going to go >> Yeah.

[00:18:27]>> How do you make sense of this, though?

[00:18:29]The the especially the sleeper cells and the the the possible attack on California.

[00:18:35]>> Yeah. The Well, let let's deal with the So, the attack on California. How are the drones going to get there? I mean, you know, where are those drones going to be launched from off the coast? you know, uh, one of the non-existent boats in the Iranian Navy that have, you know, the Iranian Navy's been destroyed per Trump. So, they no longer have a ship that could carry drones and sit off the coast of California and fire them into California. Um, this, you know, this is reminiscent of, you know, the Japanese attacking the west coast of, uh, the United States in World War II, claiming, oh, well, you know, we were prepared for that. it wasn't going to happen, but you know, nonetheless prepared for it. Now, this is they have they've trotted out this scare story about Iranian sleeper sales so many times and all you got to do is go back and look at, you know, we got 46 years of data in terms of Iranian support for terrorism and it just doesn't support the US narrative. Uh Iran has not been going out of its way to try to engage and attack the United States. uh well over uh well in fact I would say all of the attacks that are attributed to Iran or Iranian proxies on the United States were in retaliation for things the US did you know such as the the bombing of the marine barracks in 19 in October 83 that was in response to the US battleships back then we still had the New Jersey that were offshore lobbing shells into the Bahau Valley killing Shia And that actually wasn't carried out by an Iranian proxy. It was carried out by Amal, which was a longtime Shia group um in uh Lebanon and had been there, you know, they formed in 1972, 7 years before the Iranian Islamic Republic came into existence.

[00:20:34]We have not had a single terrorist attack in the United States in the last you know uh last 46 years since Iran has uh come into existence that could be point you know pinpointed to Iran or an Iranian proxy not one but it's you know we always trot it out there to justify why we've got to make Iran an enemy uh and and at the same time the actual Islamic radicals that have carried out or tried to carry out terrorist attacks are linked to ISIS which is a Sunni outfit. U the you know the Shia version of Islam uh is not big on suicide bombers. It's not big on that kind of uh fanatical sacrifice. Um whereas the takiri uh version of Sunni Islam, the Wahhabi version, uh it is, we just saw this, they had that attempted bombing the other day, two guys in New York City.

[00:21:41]ISIS, not Iran, ISIS.

[00:21:44]So, uh, they did point to this one guy down in Texas, uh, that he showed up, uh, and, uh, and shot up a bar, killed, you know, killed 14 people, I believe, or at least four people.

[00:21:59]Uh, again, he was not acting on orders from Iran at all because that's just not how Ron Iran is operated.

[00:22:07]And when you know the reality is when you look at which country has been carrying out terrorist attacks against the other country it's the United States. You know we've we've we've funded rehabilitated the MEK and MEK has been carrying out terrorist attacks regularly insideed Iran you know well over the last uh 30 years. So but it's just it's one it's a it's a it's a political manipulation.

[00:22:33]is designed to manipulate public opinion to reinforce the narrative against Iran without allowing Americans to step back and take an objective look at what is this all about.

[00:22:45]Yeah, I thought that was strange when um when Iran had to be I guess sold as the number one sponsor of terrorism in the world and uh you know they have to flesh out the argument then referring to roadside bombs in Iraq against uh you know the US occupation forces uh and then going back to Lebanon in 1982 when all technical was Hasbollah uh I think that did the bombing uh It's is it's it's not very convincing in terms of the in terms of listing it as the world sponsor of terrorism.

[00:23:22]But um no uh but how about um the the the targets that the Iranians are going after because >> it does seem this um that they're systematically going after key targets that is the radars which are quite important. So they took out the one at the US embassy in Baghdad as well. Uh again, it's more difficult to intercept Iranian drones, missiles. And we see the military bases, embassies, uh all of this kind of fits within the wider objective of uh expelling the United States from the region. But we also saw now this um this message about a report about an attack on this five refuelers in Saudi Arabia. I think they were the KC135s.

[00:24:12]>> Yeah, >> Trump went out and called this fake news, but again, he's he says a lot of things. So, I'm >> No, no, that and that's abs I I I knew about that before it was reported. Um and they weren't just damaged, they were destroyed. And uh the the reality there now is uh the air defense system at uh Prince Sultan air base it does it's no longer intact. It doesn't work. So the Prince Sultan air base is basically quite open and vulnerable to Iranian attacks and the US uh US is having to you know withdraw its troops from there the air force personnel because they're not protected. They're they're intense.

[00:24:56]Uh and so they're the they're very vulnerable to an attack. So this is um you know the loss of those five tankers is just another example that Iran had a battle plan in in mind that the they were going to do two things.

[00:25:14]one uh they were going to weaken and try to drive out the US military from the Persian Gulf and to do that by destroying their bases. Uh two, they were going to take out the radar systems that are critical for detecting launches out of Iran and uh monitoring a both threats in the air and on the on the sea, maritime threats. They did that.

[00:25:42]They did that within the first uh four days. And and despite the claims that you've oh we had these robust air defense systems around the bases, uh one of the radars was taken out by a a Ganon drone, not exactly, you know, a high-speed missile.

[00:26:01]So this uh then their their third objective was to uh degrade Israel economically, militarily uh take destroy their infrastructure.

[00:26:13]Uh, you know, I think it's worth noting that um the Iran, despite massive missile strikes in Israel, has not been trying to inflict massive civilian casualties so far. Uh because somebody said, "Well, that's just because Israel is censoring that information." No. uh if they really were if Iran was really targeting schools with children for example and killing them, Israel would make that public. In fact, I'm surprised they haven't even fabricated that story as well as try to try to build further uh public opinion against Iran. So, Iran's been quite careful on that regard. But the then also the the you know their eye for an eye strategy. If you hit our oil, we're going to hit your oil. If you hit our bank, we're going to hit your bank. And so they just in uh Dubai, they just took out a city bank uh building or at least hit it. I don't didn't destroy the building, but it was one of those big big uh skyscrapers and it it suffered quite a blast. The one area curiously that uh they the Iranians didn't did not respond to with the counter punch was when their desalinis desalination uh plant was hit and so in ter in with it it only accounts for about 8% of the water uh in Iran so it's not a critical resource but they declined so far to go after the desalinization plants in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, recognizing that that actually that could jeopardize put put at risk millions of people and and really create a a human uh catastrophe.

[00:28:16]Uh so I think Iran, they are they're being thoughtful about this. you they're recognizing that there's a political consequence to some of their actions and so they're keeping it in those bounds but uh they the the the US as was admitted in the Wall Street Journal and and this is one of those other signs that the support for Trump is fading they said hey uh the the the US grossly underestimated they did they they didn't even take into account the possibility that Iran could close the straight of Hormuz. Uh they have Iranians have far more ballistic missiles than we assumed.

[00:28:58]You know, that kind of thing.

[00:29:01]Well, um this uh well, of course, they can escalate the targeting of the Gulf States, but uh Iran doesn't have to destroy all US bases in the Gulf States.

[00:29:12]Uh >> all they have to do, I mean, they don't have to destroy these these countries.

[00:29:17]uh all they have to do is uh I guess incentivize them to decouple uh from the United States and um you know and you've seen I guess some of this was the rhetoric of uh you know that they will only target countries which host American bases and of course the bases themselves but um that's why you know for Iran the presence of these uh refuelers in Saudi Arabia it kind of confirms that the Saudis are then assisting in what was a surprise attack on Iran. But there's another but there's another thing that came out that is a suggestion now I haven't seen if it's been confirmed but it came from I think u yeah some Iranian commentators that Iran might consider allowing ships through the straight of who are paying it in Chinese ones as opposed to dollars. this will be uh you know if this is confirmed this will be another form of um the the the decoupling. Do you do you see any pathway forward? Do do you think the Gulf States would be you know would would want to accept something like this because on one hand you know the US does make them more more vulnerable to attacks. On the other hand they don't have any militaries of their own. So how how would they defend themselves without the US? It seems like a bit of a security dilemma that is, you know, if you accept the help, then you'll have war. If you don't accept it, you could be overrun. So, yeah.

[00:30:46]>> Yeah. I I I I think there's at least uh in in Saudi in in the Saudi case, there's a reassessment underway um recognizing that, you know, they made a deal with the devil, the United States back, you know, in the 1970s u where the US went off the gold standard, the we convinced the the Saudis to go along with using the dollar as the primary reser, you know, means for purchasing oil and so the effect the you know the the petro dollar as it's come to be known reign supreme and then that fostered this relationship between the Saudis and the United States we guarantee their security against threats that you know we claim to exist or we'd create for them uh but but I think now Russian Russia and China are are playing this you know quite smartly um that they uh they're they're they're in a position now to uh create an alternative for to the United States.

[00:31:55]And I I I see it could be more attractive uh to the Gulf Arabs. Uh at least it'd be it'd be le less of a subservient position. those those countries don't normally come in and uh you know tell you what to do and boss you around uh like uh you know some servant uh so the you know it's uh I think we're we're looking this is part of the realignment of the international financial system too because you know in the past that you know you'd have to price of oil goes up and oil people were paying in dollars you know, the Chinese would pay in dollars and then you know what they do with all their dollars or they'd buy US treasuries. Well, they're not doing that anymore.

[00:32:42]Um, you know, one of the other ironic outcomes of this war is before the United States, now let's remember the United States and Israel started this and you'd think that the United States would have stepped back and looked at it abroad. What's our what's our overall objective strategically in the world?

[00:33:03]But no, they didn't. So as a consequence of this war, whereas five weeks ago, Scott Bessant, the secretary of treasur of the treasury was insisting that India stop buying oil from those Russians. And we're going to punish any country that's buying Russian oil today. Hey, India, we think it's a great idea. Buy as much of that Russian oil as possible.

[00:33:32]And you know, Russia, which previously was uh selling its oil as low as $55 a barrel to India, is now it's it's well over uh $80, maybe closer to $90 a barrel. So, they're waking they're they are raking in an additional $150 million a day, which is 4.5 roughly 4.5 billion5 billion a month.

[00:34:00]Um, so you know, all the Western analysts were predicting the the implosion of the Russian economy or that it was in trouble.

[00:34:11]Here, here's Putin. And that's just the oil. They've also got an advantage. They got liquid natural gas. Hey, anybody need any liquid natural gas? Russia's got some. And fertilizer. Who's the other largest producer of fertilizer in the world? Oh, that'd be Russia. So in in in in a in literally from February 28th now to uh here we are at March 14th in 15 days uh they have taken they they've they've you know shored up the foundation of the Russian economy in a way that nobody could have predicted a year ago. So this, you know, again, this this goes along with the changing picture because uh when when this war ends with Iran, it's not going to end with US troops marching through the streets of Tehran. It's not going to be a victory march of Israelis and US soldiers waving their flags as the Iranians, you know, submit. No, it's going to be the United States and Israel. are going to have to figure out how to back out, you know, how to how to get a victory. I I did raise the possibility that Trump and his wild rhetoric about, oh man, we devastated Car Island. Therefore, we've we've accomplished our objectives. Mission accomplished. We win, so we're going to pull out and we're going to stop all these attacks on Iran because they're devastated. There's nothing left of their leadership. There's nothing left of their air force. We win. That's Trump's only way to get out of this meth.

[00:35:48]>> Well, um, yeah, but that's the problem.

[00:35:51]He doesn't there's no escalation dominance. He doesn't get to decide when the war ends. And if the straight of her moose remains closed uh for hostile countries and you know for the Gulf States until they paid reparations for the damage done to Iran you know it's very hard to sell this as a victory no matter how many you know parades he might organize it.

[00:36:13]>> Well yeah >> but uh I no I I agree with you fully that is you know that's where they're they could get they did that with the Houthies. Okay, they could get away with that with the Houthis because the Houthies were sent there continuing to bomb US military bases. They they stopped launching missiles into Israel, but they continued to stop ships from going uh into an Israeli port. So, you know, but nobody nobody is keeping tabs on the ships. They weren't easy to see.

[00:36:39]But this how does he you know he can declare victory but the very next day uh Iran's going to continue launching missiles attacking US military bases that any that remain and and hitting Israel over and over and over and over until the Israelis are going to they're going to beg for it to stop.

[00:37:02]Well, um I I'm glad you brought up the Russians because I I saw from the British media that apparently one of the state media commentators in Russia, Carnelov, he he linked the British attacks on Russia with the storm shadows.

[00:37:21]>> Mhm.

[00:37:22]>> With Iran's attack on British targets in the Middle East, saying more or less that well, you know, this this shouldn't surprise the British now. they'll, you know, get it in return. Uh, again, I didn't watch the original clips. Uh, you know, have my skepticism towards British media, but uh, again, it's it seems also I'm not sure if if that's a commentary correct if it's actually based on reality. Uh, so again, I don't know the substance, but it wouldn't surprise me. And I kind of made the comment myself I think like 2 three years ago that you know in the NATO countries we tend to fight a lot of wars and at some point the Russians will be in a position to do what we do in Ukraine that is we're setting up a firing position where we can shoot at the Russians but they can't fire back at us and >> right >> I'm I'm wondering if you see that this is that the Russians might go for something like this. Um again pure vengeance I'm not sure but uh certainly to restore deterrence that is to show that uh it will have to come with a cost anyone who essentially attacks Russia.

[00:38:28]>> Well well first the I did hear Alexander Mccurus discuss the uh possibility that the uh the British launch you know supported this launch of storm shadows into Briansk that uh killed six people.

[00:38:45]uh that that was retaliation for Russian attacks. So, Russian support for Ukrainian attacks on British troops uh in the region. And so, we can't rule that out. What what I what I found uh you know, I'll call it amusing is the West is all in a huff that my god, Russia supplying support to Iran. How dare they? It's like, you know, pot calling its kettle black. Uh this is you know here's here's the United States and the NATO countries for more than four years not only provided weapons they provided intelligence they provided in uh uh intelligence surveillance rec reconnaissance data ISR data they they facil they've planned attacks against Russia I think you know candidly I think Russia has been far far too passive in u in reacting to these If you know I I think the time has come that Russia needs to put the United States and NATO countries on notice that any reconnaissance aircraft even if it's in international airspace but it's in a position where it can collect data on Russia and and provide it to Ukraine that it will be shot down. It's it's now these are now targets. This is an effective state of war exists between Russia and the West to back them off.

[00:40:13]They've got to understand they they've got to run away with this costfree and uh you know Russia Russia's motives in helping Iran are not out of vengeance or to seek a revenge against the West for what it's done to them in Ukraine.

[00:40:34]Just the opposite.

[00:40:36]Iran exists as a strategic site, a critical node in the multinodal world or they want to call it multi-olar but I think a multinodal is a better way to express it because it sits Iran sits at the crossroads both of the the new silk road coming out of China as well as the north south economic corridor though comes out of Russia.

[00:41:05]as well as its strategic positioning in you with the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. So uh both Russia and China have recognized that Iran has some very uh critical uh it it's important strategically which is their main reason to support uh Iran.

[00:41:30]What I'm I I'm fascinated by let's call it the maturity uh and restraint with Iranian Iran's diplomacy.

[00:41:43]The the uh and how they've dealt with India is a case in point. You know, Prime Minister Modi was in Israel two days before the attack on Iran by the United States in Israel and oh my god, it was it was obscene. It was so, you know, or if there was a way that you could watch something on television and get diabetes, this would have done it. I mean, it was that sweet and trickly and uh he was just obquious.

[00:42:17]uh doing everything, you know, but giving, you know, BB Netanyahu a back rub and made came out with claiming to have a strategic alliance with Israel.

[00:42:28]Well, two days later, Israel uh hits uh Iran and kills the Iranian leadership, kills children, and then when the Iran shuts down the straight of Hormuz, all of a sudden you heard this loud uh puckering factor going on in India. Oh my god. Because 80% of their oil comes out of the Persian Gulf. What were they going to do? And in fact, I I really thought that Iran because here's, you know, India is one of the founders of bricks and yet by siding with Israel in such a public way, it was really undermining its other bricks partner Iran.

[00:43:13]But instead, you know, Iran played it pretty mature. They came back and said, "Oh, no, no. is, you know, if a if if it's an Indian flag vessel, if if it's a vessel carrying oil to India, that'll be allowed to pass. Um, and that may have had something to do uh, you know, the India obviously have to pay full freight. They don't get it for cheap like they did before. But it it shows that uh the the Islamic Republic of Iran is not this vicious terrorist beast that the west is portraying it as. And you know I cited the earlier example they didn't also go after the desalinization plants and they they've they've been relatively limited in their strikes. Uh they they have tried to avoid hitting ci purely civilian targets uh in all of the Gulf countries. Now the the US um toadi that's in Bahrain or the reports are he's fled the king uh they continue the Bahraini government continues to take a very adversarial stance uh towards Iran. United Arab Emirates reportedly were involved with the attack on Kar Island last night. So they're going to pay a price, a heavy price. Uh but um I I think Iran is they're still looking down down the road. We got to we ultimately want to repair the relations with these countries, but we're going to we're going to get the United States out. The United States is going to have to leave that region u as part of any settlement to this war. And until that war is settled, straighter hormuz is going to remain closed and the world uh I I believe we're going to be facing a global depression, not just a recession.

[00:45:00]I think uh well these kind of demands they're understandable but at the same time they can't be met by the US. So this is kind of like a recipe for for a long war. But I I agree also agree with your sentiments on India though because they kind of they they played some of the cards wrong because they allowed themselves to bend to US pressure on u on scaling back on Russian oil purchases. But now of course the Americans say oh wait maybe you should do that after all. But uh their their discount the oil is now premium uh priced oil. So it it might not have been um a great move and but also the Indians with you know Modi visited Israel and this kind of um you know does it not good optics and also after even inviting Iran to pray to participate in this naval exercise then the US sank its warship on the way home and the Indians uh as far as I know couldn't muster a condemnation I mean this was they were invited by them and they're sunk on their way home in international waters and uh no it it just um yeah it it looks like they played some of the cards a bit uh unwise here. Uh just as a last question, what what do we know about the destructions in Israel?

[00:46:20]Because you know they keep a very tight control over their media and uh I think our journalists in the west are quite you know obedient or loyal to this uh to this restrictions on um revealing uh loss or destruction within Israel. But what do we know so far? Well, we we we know through what we're not seeing. And let me explain. Um if if I'm telling you, oh, everything's fine, but you can't come take pictures. You can't come look. That tells you everything's not fine. They've turned off the satellite the, you know, public satellite that are capable of taking u real-time images out of uh Israel. They've been turned off.

[00:47:09]They have uh they're not providing that product anymore. Huh. Now, you saw that CNN was allowed to go into Iran and report and they didn't. CNN was not faced with uh saying, "Nope, you can't report here. You can't report. Turn the camera off." No, they were they were allowed per it appeared pretty uh wide access.

[00:47:30]So, um, this this tells me and and having watched there are a few images that get out, you know, every day, uh, you've had, I guess we're up to 42 waves of missile attacks, uh, into Israel since of February 28th. You know, that that's huge. Uh, so that's um, roughly three waves of missile attacks per day.

[00:48:00]And these are and now where they're uh they're carrying 2,000 lb uh warheads or upwards of 3,000 pounds.

[00:48:09]So this is uh um you know it it is definitely causing damage in Tel Aviv in Hifa. The port has been hit. The oil refinery reportedly has been hit. Uh they did uh there were images thatmer emerged last night of Nevatim the air air force base down in the NGV desert.

[00:48:31]So this is uh Israel cannot take this kind of pounding. And people say well how why do you what about Iran?

[00:48:43]Iran's you know what 15 times bigger than Israel. Uh, Israel's got 55% of its population in just two cities.

[00:48:55]Now, as big as Tehran is with what, 10 to 12 million people and some say with the metropolitan area, it gets up to 15 million. Okay, they got 15 million. Uh, they still got another 75 million people throughout the country in different uh cities and towns. And uh the next nine largest cities in Iran, they're they're all about a million, two million. So there are not these huge uh metropolitan areas. So they're actually relatively dispersed.

[00:49:28]So the point being uh if if Iran and Israel are firing the same amount of of munitions at each other every day, Israel is going to degrade quicker and faster than Iran and Israel is going to be in a position that they will not be able to sustain this which then raises the issue of will they will they want to use a nuke and there's that possibility. Um and and I think the you know the I wrote an article on the game theory behind this and you know basically the game theory solution is if Israel is threatening to use a nuke the uh the only thing the best solution for Iran is to immediately produce a nuclear weapon. if they've if they've got a demonstrated uh nuclear capability, it's going to force the US and Israel to change their calculations because no longer Israel in particular can't risk launching a nuclear strike on a nuclear armed Iran because Iran can then come back and destroy and literally destroy Israel. Uh an Israeli strike on Iran would cause terrible loss of life, terrible damage, but it would not destroy Iran. Israel would be destroyed.

[00:50:46]>> Well, I think the Yeah, the Israel the Iranian territory should be about 75 times that of Israel or something. It's uh it's really huge. So, yeah, it's it it does require also the population of course with 90 million people. So, it does require um a whole lot of more firepower. But yeah, it's um yeah, this is this is the big thing that just perplexes me that they keep making these demands, ultimatums, bluffs for which essentially demands that Iran capitulates the same as you know giving up the ballistic missiles and um yeah and then they're they're left with the option of what Iran predictably won't and can't accept. then they either have to allow their credibility to falter or they must go up the escalation ladder which will just make matters much worse. So it's you can see the destructive path we're going on yet no one is uh doing anything serious to put an end to this and again given that what Iran wants an end to US presence in the region and compensation uh you know it will be difficult >> and elimination of sanctions >> that's you know yeah that and look I I think they've got we're seeing again something we've never seen in history where one country can choke off and close off uh a critical economic lifeline and has control of it. And the the rest of the world or the the the the parties that are most affected really can't do anything to to reverse it without incurring a terrible cost that they're not willing to pay. And that that cost be mil, you know, loss of life and loss of uh uh ships. Uh it would be very devastating for the United States, for you know, Japan. And what's the the other really interesting thing that's playing out now is what's happening with Taiwan.

[00:53:01]Taiwan's going to run out of power in 10 days.

[00:53:06]What do they do? So all this chip production that's there that's going to that's going to stop. They don't have the energy or they've got to come up with an alternative source. H what source might that be? Gee, China, Russia. H. So China has now acquired increased leverage over Taiwan. Yeah, this is, you know, this is 5D chess that's going on here. the the cascading effects across the board. Uh you know in fact I didn't it never entered my mind when you know when I heard they closed the straight I thought oh boy that's going to be bad for oil and then when I started looking into it and ran across that this export of ura I had no idea that you know and at 35% of the world supply good lord that is significant. So all of a sudden you begin to see that this in this you know the the whole strategy that outlines that Iran is in a place now that it's going to be able to dictate terms of surrender because despite you know US tough talk and all that the economic pain is going to become such for so many countries uh that are aligned with the United States the countries that are aligned with Russia and China they're going to be Okay, because Russia is an alternative source to the Persian Gulf and it's going to it's going to even strengthen it further in terms of economic power and political power. The countries that have, you know, coming now they're getting they're relying upon Russia to supply gas, oil, fertilizer that buys, you know, buys Russians more goodwill. What's And what's the United States done? United States has kicked off a war that's caused all these countries pain, you know. So when we come knocking on their door, they're not going to answer.

[00:55:06]Yeah. Also, if if Iran was the only adversary, then the US could perhaps invest more resources, both uh you know, blood and treasure into this. But as you suggest, you know, Trump never finished the US participation in the war against Russia. Well, the proxy war through Ukraine and also never made put an end to the the economic war and the the military threats or buildup in the competition with with China. So, it's um yeah, going after all of these three at the same time, this defeat in Iran will be so much worse. I mean, you know, and even America's worst enemies wouldn't want to see too much of a humiliating defeat because this is uh not a source of stability. So, no, I'm I'm worried what is coming, but uh >> but uh yes, as always, my friend, thank you very much for taking the time. Do you have any final thoughts?

[00:55:59]>> Yeah, one I just want to go back to the terrorism thing. I just I pulled up the statistics for 2017 just to put a you know an exclamation point on this notion that Iran's the number one sponsor of terrorism in the world. Um and these are the stats actually for 2016 and 2017.

[00:56:17]Number one, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, ISIS. And these stats did not include uh branches of ISIS like al-Nusra, Hayatra, Asham. This was just strict up ISIS. Total deaths in 2017, 4,350.

[00:56:35]In 2016, 9,180.

[00:56:39]So, right there, you're looking at over 13,500 dead at ISIS. They were number one. Number two were the Taliban. uh they ran about uh 7,200 deaths in those two years. Number three was al-Shabaab.

[00:56:52]Again, Sunni, not Shia. Uh they killed over 2100 uh people in those uh two years. They list the Mauist Communist Party of India, the CPI Marxists. They actually were the fourth highest for 2016 2017. And bringing up number five was Boo Haram. Another ISIS. You know, not a single Iranian group in there. Not a single Iranianback group. And that's been the case every year except the statistics did show for 2023. They lumped in October 7th and Hamas now appears in the top 10 for that year. But uh you know this this argument the demonization of Iran as a terrorist state uh is is it a damnable lie and and let me and one one final point we go back and look at what happened to what Iran did in response to the Iraq war when Iraq used chemical weapons against Iran and those chemical weapons that were provided by the United states and built by Iraq, used against Iran. That started in August of 1983, continued through August of 1988. Over 20 chemical weapon attacks, weapon of mass destruction.

[00:58:17]Iran never developed a chemical weapon and never used a chemical weapon on the battlefield.

[00:58:25]Why? because as uh it was a sin against God to do that. So uh I think the world underestimates as well the role of the religious conviction in Iran's policies in this that they're not this you know we hate the Christians we're going to kill all the Christians and Jews nonsense. Just the opposite. the Iranians over over the course of actual war have shown far more decency than has the United States in all of its wars in my judgment.

[00:59:02]>> Yeah. No. Well, reading from the media, you this this the talks about Iran this, you know, they they talk about burkas and suicide bombers, but you know, first of all, there were burkas in Iran. And second, the the suicide bombers have those extremist organizations have tended to be on the Sunni side, not the Shi. So, it's there's a lot of um yeah, well, propaganda. There's no other words for it, but >> yeah.

[00:59:27]>> Yeah.

[00:59:29]>> Well, as always, thank you very much and for taking time out your day. I know you're busy, so thank you. Well,