A necessary reality check for those chasing old highs while ignoring the weight of token dilution. It’s basic math delivered as a sobering warning that market cap, not just price, dictates the ceiling.
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Deep Dive
Avalance (AVAX) Crypto to $40!
Added:Taking a look at AVAC here, Avalanche on the weekly Binance chart. I shot a video on this a couple of weeks ago going over bull market targets. We're going to cover a little of that today. Um, as well as some other targets. Um, if you want to check out that video, go to the page here. Subscribe to the channel. We would love to have you. But you can see the AVAC bull run price prediction video right here. Check it out. I did an entire series on lots of altcoins. So, uh, give us a thumbs up, give us a subscribe. We would love to have you. Let's dive in. So, um, first of all, I I don't care about the fundamentals of of AVAC. If it plays out, I'm sure some of you think Avac is going to a thousand dollars, and I hope it does. I really don't care. I come at this from a more technical standpoint. That way, if your narrative does not play out, why not be prepared for what might happen just in case? And if you're unwilling to look at that side of the coin, you're probably going to get wrecked because you're going to expect uh something that is likely not going to happen. Um, and I I don't I don't have anything against AVAC. I'm just saying be prepared for the technicals in case the narrative doesn't come through for whatever reason. All right, here's what I want you to focus on. Um, at your all-time high price of 150 bucks, you had a circulating supply or coins on the market of 220 million. By next cycle, you're going to have 550 million. That is two and a half times more coins than you had at price all-time high. Okay? Therefore, for you to reach this price all-time high, you have to do a $60 billion market cap, which is double what you had to do um um in uh at your price all time of 150 bucks. If you just do what you did before at $30 billion, your price is only going to be $60. Okay? And that's if you go to your all-time high market cap. So, what we want to do, I'm going to turn these off. What we want to do is look at your market cap. Now, in the last cycle, you did not set a new all-time high market cap, right? You did not take out that high. What did you do? Let's fib this. You can't fib price. The reason you can't fib this price on a macro scale is because you've added two and a half times more uh supply to your circulating supply. So, it doesn't work. It's not linear. It is linear, however, on market cap. So, let's fib and see what you did. from all-time high to last bare market low, you came up to a 702 retrace. Okay? So, you actually retraced. You did not break out. You did a simple retrace.
Okay? Now, let's follow that same logic, which is valid in this case, and I'll tell you why. Now, let's fib uh last cycle all-time high to current bare market low market cap. Okay? And um here are your Fibonacci levels. This is for your market cap retrace levels. And I've done the math for you. Uh, but what you want to pay attention to on on market cap. I'm about to show you the totals is you have now broken market structure on the macro level. Okay? Um, you had a high in price, a low low in price, not price, excuse me, market cap. Um, then you had a lower high and now you have taken out these lows. So you now have a lower low. What you can expect is a retrace to a lower high and then an eventual lower low. Okay? You've now started a macro downtrend whether you like it or not. Now, if something comes through fundamentally and it shoots market cap up and price follows it, great. But don't anticipate that because the structure of this has now flipped bearish. It doesn't mean you can't make a lot of money and have a good return. It just means you wouldn't want to expect crazy prices or crazy market caps. Okay. Um again, if you get it, that's just a bonus. All right. Here are your market cap retrace levels. And remember that's all you did last cycle was market cap retrace to the 702. So if you just retrace to these levels, which is likely to happen, here's what you're going to get. You're going to get a retrace to the 382 at a $20 AVAC. If you did come up, because I do think this is one of the probably a little bit stronger narratives. Um, if you came up to somewhere like the Golden Pockets, uh, 618 Fibonacci, you're going to get like a $30 AVAC. And again, this is not the golden pocket on price, okay? Um, this this is the golden pocket on market cap. And how you calculate uh price is market cap divided by circulating supply. So if you took a market cap uh golden pocket of 16 to 17 billion coins and you divided that by your circulating supply at the time, which is going to be 550 million, that will give you a price of uh 29.50. 30 bucks. call it 30 bucks. That's how you calculate that. So my you can go ahead and screenshot it this you want. You're very likely to hit one of these targets. Um and if not, you can use you're going to find resistance most likely of these targets. You can use it as cumulation. Come up here. 382 market cap retrace at 20 bucks. You're probably going to reject it on the first pass. You could sell there. You could reby down here. I'm just drawing lines.
I don't I I don't have your targets where you'd reby. It depends on where you reject at. You could reby and accumulate here. but then push up to the 0.5. Same thing, sell there, buy the retrace, push up. Same thing. Not financial advice, but this is how you would accumulate coins on the way up. Okay? Rather than picking blind numbers up in here, uh you would want to go by your market cap retraces. All right, here's my price prediction. I think you're going to return to $40. Okay, that's going to give you a $22 billion market cap, which is actually higher, significantly higher, about 10% higher than your 786 retrace. Keep in mind that is better than you did last cycle. That is better than your retrace level last cycle to the 786. Last cycle, let's just refresh it for you. Last cycle, you only hit the 702. So, I'm predicting that AVAX does actually better than it did last cycle. Okay. So, we're going to return to the higher than 786. You're going to have a $40 AVAC, but I do think you're going to get a shot at lower. I think you're going to come down into this support zone here, probably the top of it. back test it. It's going to give you something like a $5 buy target. Not financial advice, somewhere down in here. And I think you could get a good eight to 9x return, maybe even a 10x return. And that would actually be a complete fill of this volume profile, too. You can see the value area range here. You come all the way up, boom, value area high, retrace above the 786, which is an an overperformance compared to last cycle. And then you continue down for the next bare market. So $40 is my Apex target. I showed you the market cap reasons why. I'm telling you guys, you're going to want to put these retrace levels on your chart. And if you do better, that is just a bonus. But if you don't, be prepared for this right here. Drop a comment down below. Let me know what you think of my price prediction. Um, if nothing else, these are, like I said, good accumulation levels where you could you could you could possibly sell, reaccumulate, and move up with extra coins. All right, guys. Drop a comment down below. Subscribe to the channel. Love to have you. See you guys next time.
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