Mike Novogratz Breaks His Silence on Bitcoin & Market Sell-Off | Things Are Very Different Now..

Ajouté : 2026-06-08

[00:00:00]It's a sad story. Um I'm going to have to start shedding tears. If the guy with the laser eyes is selling Bitcoin, that's not good either.

[00:00:09]Those aren't good signs.

[00:00:11]>> So, does it have to 50? Does it have to go into the 50s before it gets back to 70? This stuff ends badly, Michael. You and I both know this.

[00:00:18]>> This is one of the most important market analysis from Mike Novogratz and his colleague, where they break down exactly what is really happening behind the curtain in the Bitcoin market right now and in MicroStrategy. According to them, Bitcoin could be facing another major drawdown that most people would never see coming. And this could actually be a massive opportunity to buy in and dollar cost average even more. They will touch on key important points that every Bitcoin holder and investor needs to know right now. So, let's just hear directly from them.

[00:00:48]>> Uh listen, Bitcoin had its it's had its run into Trump. It had its it it put in its high. There was an unbelievable surge of buying.

[00:00:57]And you know, all all markets hit a top and then they start consolidating and it's just lost its sponsorship and narrative.

[00:01:06]And you know, the Fed isn't cutting rates. We still don't have uh we still don't have the um market structure built.

[00:01:15]Though I think there's a pretty good chance we get it, but we don't have it yet.

[00:01:19]You know, we've tried to make the crypto agentic link.

[00:01:23]It's actually a real link. It's not a theoretical link, but no one cares about crypto right now. And so, it just doesn't have the the energy. Markets need energy.

[00:01:31]And then you got Saylor uh selling a little bit. I don't know why he did that. It was a strange move, but it was a tiny amount, but if the guy with the laser eyes is selling Bitcoin, that's not good either.

[00:01:43]>> So, Michael, the RSI on on Bitcoin right now, the relative strength index is at a record. I mean, it's below us back in the time machine, January of 2023. So so is that a good indicator that we're very oversold or do you think there's something I mean is there a thesis break in Bitcoin where you're wrong about Bitcoin, I'm wrong about Bitcoin and Bitcoin and Peter Schiff is right about Bitcoin it's heading for 20 20,000.

[00:02:17]>> Now listen, I mean if you if you're looking for copium like okay what what let me come up with some story that still makes me feel okay. Bitcoin has traded on a four-year cycle since it started.

[00:02:32]I never thought it should trade on a four-year cycle but everyone in China does.

[00:02:37]And so sometimes these things become self-fulfilling.

[00:02:40]And if you look at the four-year cycle, we've got a few more months of down and it might go as low as you know 45,000.

[00:02:47]Uh that would be if you graphed it over the old four-year cycles, it would still be above the high and then it would you know take back off again on the next you know big bull run. And so there's a lot of people in the Bitcoin community that play that algorithm and believe that.

[00:03:04]The four-year cycle never made sense to me as we became a mature asset but it makes sense to a lot of people and so that's the one if I'm looking for a bull argument I would make. Um you know we're still listen we're still significantly higher than we were you know in 2022 when we were buying it at 15,000 we're we're 4x that. Um gold's not 4x right and so a lot of this is you know when you bought it and when you I got a friend who's who's long at 8,000 and he's shooting himself that he didn't sell it at 107. He still believes it's going to go to 300,000 right? He's like I wish I sold some but I'm not going to sell it. And so a lot of this is horizon you have but listen it it doesn't trade well right now. Volumes are down 30 to 40% across crypto. And more importantly, other cryptos trade worse, right? Those aren't good signs. What are you thinking, Adam?

[00:04:03]Are you Are you holding your Bitcoin?

[00:04:04]>> I'm a newbie to this. You're the I mean, you know, you and Brigger brought me and Brett Messing into this god damn thing.

[00:04:10]Okay, I I'm a long-term believer, but I see it as a 4-year cycle. I was with uh Richard from Binance at the consensus stuff in February. CZ was talking about a Bitcoin supercycle. Richard Tang was telling me, "No way. This is a 4-year cycle." To your point about guys in China, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. They look at the thing and say, "I got to start selling." Okay? And so, uh if the 4-year cycle theory holds, Bitcoin doesn't recover until the early part of the fourth quarter of 2026, possibly into the first quarter of 2027.

[00:04:45]What I love about this right now as a market participant, though, is that everybody hates it.

[00:04:52]Okay? I mean, you know, you you you don't hate it cuz you're too smart to hate it, but you have no energy for it.

[00:04:59]Okay, I don't have any energy for it. I mean, let's just be honest, you know?

[00:05:02]>> Yeah.

[00:05:03]>> But I But I think, and again, I could be wrong. I'm looking at this RSI. Usually, when it gets to this level, you're getting near a bottom. But But then it's fear you're >> In anything, when you're at max fear, you're often paid to buy. And when you're at max euphoria, you're paid to sell.

[00:05:18]Um it get It gets the bigger question on the other side, you know, I have tried to to sell the stock market a few times, and luckily, keep a tight stop or do it with options because wow, you know, the Nasdaq really feels almost, you know, in invulnerable.

[00:05:41]Uh that said, Korean memory went down 7% last night, right? It got whacked.

[00:05:46]Uh we'll see what the Nasdaq uh >> But Michael, this stuff ends badly, Michael. You and I both know this. This is not stuff that goes forever. This stuff it does end badly. I feel like if any crypto has led us into the into the trap. We'll see what happens. Cuz it hit the 50 Does it has into the 50s before it gets back to 70? I'll just point out when the ETF started, we were around the low 40s in January of 2024. So where do you think we're going?

[00:06:12]>> I you know, I I I don't have a strong conviction if we Listen, if we take out 60, we're going to head to the mid-50s to low low low to low 50s and then then it'll be a 50-75. I think 80, you know, I said this before and I'm mad at myself for not selling enough when we got up to 82. I When we were at 60 last time I said 80, you got to have to take out 80 82 83. That's going to be the top unless it takes that out and then it goes to 100. Well, it failed up there. And now I think that's still is 80 still your ceiling.

[00:06:43]>> That's the resistance, yeah.

[00:06:44]>> If if you take out 60, it opens up 50.

[00:06:47]Uh, you know, 45 to 50.

[00:06:50]And so if you're a good Catholic, you're saying two Hail Marys and an Our Father that 60 holds.

[00:06:57]>> Mike Novogratz continues to encourage people, whether you are already a Bitcoin holder and investor or a newcomer, to remember that Bitcoin can shock the market in ways nobody expects.

[00:07:08]All you need to do is learn more about the asset, buy opportunities during dips, and increase your Bitcoin exposure because that is what you can control.

[00:07:18]You can't control everything happening in the market.

[00:07:21]Look at what Michael Saylor just did.

[00:07:23]Nobody expected him to sell even a small amount because he has always promoted the idea of holding Bitcoin and never selling.

[00:07:31]But this is a lesson we can learn from.

[00:07:34]Anything can happen in the market.

[00:07:36]You just have to be prepared to take advantage of it because historically, Bitcoin has often recovered and moved higher after major market events.

[00:07:44]So, keep that in mind. Stay focused and let's get that money in the future. Have you ever wished you had learned about Bitcoin earlier? Make sure to teach your kids or young family about it now before it's too late.

[00:07:57]This team's ebook is perfect for that.

[00:08:00]Link in the description.