🚨 URGENT: Stock Market CRASH May Happen in June for SPY, QQQ, & NVDA? (AI Tool Analysis) 🚀

本站添加: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]What's up guys? This is Ray J back with another video and in this one I want to break down what's happening with SPY, the QQQ and Nvidia as we have new updates coming out that could cause a lot of volatility. And also we're going to talk about what's happening with the current trend as there is some risk that is developing. Just know that I am not a financial planner. Take nothing I'm saying is financial advice whatsoever.

[00:00:22]Anyways, SPY is on a tear. As you guys could tell, we keep making higher highs, higher lows, higher highs, and higher lows. But notice that we keep on gapping up. We have a gap that's left at 742, a gap over here at 724, a gap over here at 702, and the list goes on. There's gaps in the 600s. The QQQ is very similar. We keep squeezing. We have so many gaps left below. There's a gap over here around this 681 area. There's a gap at uh the 697 zone. There's gaps that are just in the 600s. And the list goes on.

[00:00:56]there are so many gaps below. So eventually there's going to come a time when we do return to fill these gaps.

[00:01:03]The issue is that the market is on a tear and there's no sign of us truly getting a decline yet. So the market's going to remain bullish until it's done.

[00:01:11]Meaning that we could continue to squeeze for now. But eventually as volume is declining, there could be some kind of pullback that's coming. So let's talk about what the charts suggest and the trend based off a very awesome tool known as forecaster. This is very awesome to understand what's happening in the back end of the markets by looking at different sectors or looking at lots of data that tells us a lot of things about the trends. So for example, I'm using the sector map tool right here. What's very good about this is that you could use this to look at the S&P 500, financial services, and consumer cycles. These are the most important sectors to pay attention to because it is the financial services and consumer cycle cyclicals that tell us a lot about what's happening with the current trends. So when we see financial services declining whereas the market is in a massive pump, it creates a large divergence and that could be a sign that the market's going to be forming a top.

[00:02:09]And now something big is happening.

[00:02:11]Consumer cycles are beginning to decline. You could see at the very end right over here. So see how consumer cycles the green line is declining.

[00:02:20]Financial services are declining but the market keeps on climbing higher. This is a bearish divergence which suggests that the market is once again going to be forming a top soon. Now when the declines happen, it's usually within um between 1 and 2 and 1/2 months when the top will be formed and then we're going to see a bit of a pullback. As of right now, the divergences have been forming for about a month, which tells us that in about a month, uh, a month and a half max, but I would say within a month from now, we are likely going to be forming a top and the market will likely start its decline. But as of right now, it looks like this setup and this move is becoming less sustainable for the markets, meaning that it's not healthy for the market to keep on squeezing and squeezing and squeezing. While financial services, which involves commercial loans and the funding for the markets, and consumer cycles, which tells us about what's happening with consumer spending, they're on declines right now.

[00:03:21]And that is essentially a sign that this rally is just not going to be um too longived. It's going to likely get a very very nice correction very very soon. Also, if you look at uh this overall year, actually, I'm going to go back like 3 years just to show you this.

[00:03:38]So three years out you can see that these divergences tend to form a lot and it tells you a lot about how the market is essentially moving. So what you'll see is that there were lots of times when we saw you know consumer cyclicals and then financial services declining whereas the market was in a massive squeeze only for the market to end up dumping uh which shows that these divergences do tend to pan out. Another example would be what happened in early 2026. So right here you could see the red line started to decline right here.

[00:04:10]The red line was declining then the green line were was started started to decline as well and then SPY or the overall market saw a big correction uh right after. So this is a sign that the divergences do tend to pan out. And in this case when you look at like the six month time frame we're going to likely see the same thing happen again. In the six month time frame you could see there's a big divergence right here.

[00:04:35]Financial services have been declining and now consumer cyclicals are also beginning to decline and that's a sign that once again the market will be forming a top. Usually it's within one to two and 1/2 months. It's been 1 month so far. So that means within one to one and a half months the market will be topped and we're likely going to see a pullback. It's not just because of that, but if we actually switch over to what forecasters telling us about SPY, one month out, the pattern is a little bit more weak, which tells us that as we get to June, there's likely going to be between a 2 and 3.6% decline. Now, we're not ready for the decline yet. We're not just going to jump in and expect the market to crash because of this. It's more like this is giving us a warning that typically given historical trends, the market is likely going to be forming some kind of top soon. When you look at seasonality, you could actually look back at the last like 20 years and you could see what the market typically does. Well, when you have, for example, a green April and May, which is in itself is actually kind of rare, but when it happens, this typically happened around like um 2016, 2015, close to 2014, and 2013. Either June or July end up being red the majority of the time.

[00:05:53]That's what typically happens most of the time. Um, so we're likely going to see a red June or July as the most likely possibilities. that is something that we could be looking out for. Um that is what the trend is suggesting based off our seasonality. So I'm using forecaster to go back on uh the the past trends. You could actually look at what happened for certain months, which months are green, which months are red.

[00:06:18]Another big factor is going to be the fact that we are in a midterm election year. That's another very important factor to consider. So in 2022, right during the midterm election year, what essentially happened was that we were red in April, we turned green in May, then we saw a very red June before turning green in July. So a lot of turbulence during the summer, right? If you go back to 2018, the market was very red in February and March. Then it was kind of like flat for some time before it got a big correction around October.

[00:06:49]But it was just a lot of sideways price action. not really much was happening in 2018 for example 2024 what happened uh sorry not 2024 uh 2014 excuse me um we saw something very very similar essentially going on so in 2014 if you look at what was going on we actually were green for April and May June was a little bit green and then we got a red July so typically you're going to see a red June or July based off the trend even in 2008 April and May were green months, but then June and July were very, very red months. So, what I'm trying to tell you is that typically when you're green in April and May, if we do end up closing green for May, June or July will be red. That is what almost always happens the majority of the time on the S&P 500, which tells us that there could be a red June coming. Um, regardless of that, the market is still very bullish. If you look at the overview using forecaster, the market is still in a big uptrend and these declines are not necessarily crashes, but very, very healthy corrections.

[00:07:55]Looking at SPY right now, we're overbought right now. The market is near a top and we're not necessarily like fully topped yet, but we're in a very overbought position and we are due for some kind of corrective phase very, very soon. So, that's what I'm essentially seeing at least thus far using Forecaster. So, unfortunately, I can't make the call yet that we're in the top right now. The market is fully topped out. We can't make any presumptions about that yet. We can suggest that we're in a topping process and there is a risk of us forming a top soon.

[00:08:26]Wherever the top is going to be, we just have to wait and see because the market is just very much u manipulated right now and we just have to wait and see what's about to happen. So, just to be very clear, um, we could continue to squeeze for some time, whether it's another couple of weeks, but typically what's going to happen is if we keep squeezing, June or July will be red most likely. And I do think it might be June where we start to see some turbulence to start filling a lot of these gaps. And the reason for that is not just because of um the overall trend, but also because of the fact that we have a new Fed chair. So, the next FOMC meeting is going to be in June, and we know the Fed is going to keep rates the same, most likely given the hot inflationary numbers we've gotten. But Kevin Worsh was just confirmed by the the Senate.

[00:09:13]And this is important because typically when the market gets a new Fed, on average, we do end up getting some kind of correction. That's what typically happens when you have a new Fed chairman. And historically when we got new Fed shares, the market does like to test them one, two, and sometimes 3 weeks after. Most of the time, it's usually 3 months after the market's going to be in a decline before we get some kind of bounce again. So that is essentially what our trends essentially suggest. And if you zoom out and look at the charts right here, you'll see that when we get new Fed shares, we get some kind of correction. We have a new Fed share, we get a correction and a bounce.

[00:09:51]New Fed share, we dip and then bounce.

[00:09:54]New Fed share we rally and then reject.

[00:09:56]Uh new Fed share we dip a bit then bounce and then the list goes on. So that is what the trends suggest so far.

[00:10:03]Meaning that it aligns for the month of June that once we get the new Fed share there might be a big test coming and there could be a a decline that also comes. It's another interesting correlation. Not only is it a midterm election year but at the same time that is usually what happens on the QQQ. Very similarly, it it could still rally as high as 740. That may be the absolute uh top for the rally for now before we see some kind of correction or we could just start correcting from here. But either way, we are expecting to be retesting 700 to 673 by the time we get to June. That is the most likely possibility based off the previous patterns on the QQQ chart. But even if we do decline a bit, we could still bounce against new all-time highs if that makes sense. seasonality suggests something very similar. If we go back for the last 20 years when you're green in April and May, sometimes you could try to keep going for another month or so before you start declining later on during the year on the QQQ. Uh that is something that typically happens, but there are also times when um you have like a green April, a green May, then you start declining in June.

[00:11:12]That's happened many times as well. So, the data is kind of mixed on the QQQ as it could go either way, but considering how overbought we are, once again, there is a lot of risk. And I do want to mention that things are becoming more tricky, especially as we have a new Fed share coming. So, that's another important factor to remember. Just like SPY, we're technically bullish on the QQQ. We're going to remain bullish until we're not, but there are too many gaps left to fill and we will eventually get some kind of correction when the time is right. We could go as high as that 725 area or even higher. But once we form a top, we should be expecting us to decline to at least $700, if not as low as the 670s before we attempt to bounce again. Could happen as soon as the month of June. So, we'll see how it goes. Uh this could be like more uh extended, could take a couple of weeks until we get the full-on uh pullback, but it usually will happen around that June to July period. So, keep that in mind.

[00:12:06]That's something else that's worth noting. So for now, spying the QQQ are bullish. So we once again are just playing the trends. The trend is your friend. The market is still bullish for now, but there's going to likely be a decline the closer we get to that June to July period. And last but not least, we have other tickers such as Nvidia.

[00:12:24]Nvidia has been squeezing like crazy for many, many weeks and it's been just continuing to pump and pump and pump, which is fantastic. But the question is, is Nvidia becoming more risky?

[00:12:34]forecaster is telling us when looking at Nvidia, one month out, there's going to be a risk of Nvidia either forming a top and then correcting to 210 or it could be dipping back down to 217 before it tries to squeeze even higher. There's mixed signals. We have one bullish case where it declines to 217, then rallies for 260. If we get a quick decline, especially with earnings next week, that could take us to 217, then a big bounce could come afterwards. Or we could rally as high as 230 and then get some kind of decline. If we keep on pumping uh for the remainder of May, there's going to be a very good chance of us correcting by about 6 to 10% for the month of June.

[00:13:12]That is what the trend suggests on Nvidia based off previous cases which forecaster is using. On top of this, when you look at Nvidia, whether it's overbought or oversold, we're still very overbought. And we're going to see how long we could kind of like uh maintain these levels. When it comes to seasonality, you can actually see what Nvidia does during typical months. And usually this is what happens. Um, we tend to be red in either June or July.

[00:13:38]That's almost always what happens. The only exception was last year when it was squeezing a lot alongside 2023. But usually, historically, the majority of the time in either June or July, you're going to get at least um a 2 to 10% red month. That's what typically happens to Nvidia. So keep that in mind. Historically, that is what we often times see. So because we were up 14% in April, 18% in May so far if we continue to squeeze even after Nvidia's earnings, things become risky in June and July, and there's going to be a risk of us getting some kind of correction during one of those months. And that is what the trend suggests based off seasonality for Nvidia. Nvidia has a lot of gaps left to fill. There's obviously a gap at 226. There's a gap over here at 211. And there are plenty of gaps left in the 170s, 180s, and 190s. uh we are bullish for now and with the earnings coming out it could still try to squeeze higher for the 240s or 250s especially as many analysts are very bullish on Nvidia and because of its very strong fundamentals and many Chinese approvals that have been coming out for the stock and the company but one thing that's important to remember is that as bullish as we are there could be a temporary decline that comes in the month of June to start filling some of these gaps and that would be completely normal to do before trying to bounce again but June and July are known for being a little bit weaker months for Nvidia. So, we could be looking for a move like this just hypothetically, right? So, one thing to remember about Nvidia is that despite the shortterm fluctuations, whether we drop in June or not, you could always look at the fundamentals and know that this has very very strong earnings. If you look, for example, at our sales, if you look at what tends to happen to their free cash flow, it's been very consistent. You could also look at their net income that keeps on growing and their profit margins have been improving to some extent. But overall, you could see all of the data like this. What's the fair value of Nvidia? What do the fundamentals tell us and what's happening with their shares?

[00:15:38]All this data is going to be very useful for understanding where the revenue comes from. And it helps back up the share price with a very strong fundamental backing. So forecaster can be used to kind of like research some of your favorite companies out there such as Nvidia. you could look at the fundamentals and see a lot of different cool tools about that. So, with that being said, I do want to thank you all so much for listening. The stock market is still very bullish and we could continue to squeeze for quite some time.

[00:16:02]However, despite the squeeze we're seeing, it's becoming riskier as the days go on and typically either June or July are known for being more bearish months based off the trends and based off the data I'm looking at. Nvidia is also known for correcting either in June or July most of the time. So, keep that in mind. Things become riskier the higher we go. But just know that forecaster is a very awesome tool for looking at patterns, understanding trends and seasonality, and the market is becoming riskier the higher we go based off all the data I'm looking at.

[00:16:32]And forecast is very awesome for that.

[00:16:34]So, if you're interested in signing up for Forecaster, please check out my link down below. You could also save 10% on your membership by using my promo code.

[00:16:41]Anyways, I thank you all so much for listening. Please enjoy the rest of your guys' days. Forecaster is very awesome.

[00:16:46]Don't forget to sign up. Anyways, that's it for this one. Thank you all so much for listening and peace out.