Intense Heat Continues, Severe Weather Chances | PIX11 Forecast Focus

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:03][music] >> This is PIX11 Forecast Focus with Mike Masko. [music] All right, good Wednesday on this PIX11 Weather Alert Day. We got a double whammy for you in the weather world. We advertised this another day of heat, the last day of heat. And then comes the storms. And that's been a big weather headline. If you're watching us during the morning show on channel 11 or streaming us, you did pick up on the fact that we had a big upgrade from the Storm Prediction Center going from a level one, which means a marginal risk of severe weather.

[00:00:46]It means isolated strong storms, maybe a couple test severe weather limits, to more of a widespread deal. If you watch this program, you knew that I was basically hedging this bet that we'd have stronger storms with the expectation of a lot of severe storms for your day today. And that's going to come to fruition. At least it's nice to see that National Weather Service is starting to agree with me. It's always concerning when the weather service doesn't agree with me, but it looks like we got a pretty much locked forecast. So, let's talk heat first. It's one more day until 8:00 this evening where heat advisory will go into play. It's for a real feel temperatures between 95 to 100. Newark, New Jersey yesterday hit 99.

[00:01:28]That's insane. I mean, that is an insane number for a time period before Memorial Day, right? Typically, we talked that kind of heat in Newark usually in the summer, in the dead of summer. So, we are kicking things off with a bang in Newark. And Patterson, I think was like 100°.

[00:01:47]Crazy heat. So, we'll do this again today.

[00:01:50]This Bermuda high is now starting to unravel. We mentioned that yesterday because now low pressure is slowly filling in.

[00:01:59]Big trough of low pressure coming out of Minnesota. In fact, Minneapolis was down to like 30 something degrees this morning. So, that is a testimonial to still some real deal chill coming out of Canada.

[00:02:11]At the same time, we're going to be watching southern jet stream energy coming into the pattern. And that is a real unfortunate part to this forecast because yes, is it going to get cool and a big cool down sets up for Thursday and Friday, but you still have moisture being flexed into the system and that's going to create problems for the Memorial Day weekend.

[00:02:33]It's not a total washout. I'm going to I'm going to explain that in just a minute and we'll talk through one forecast model that I do agree with. But let's just get into the severe weather because that's the short-term concern.

[00:02:45]So, the second severe weather alert from Channel 11 is, of course, the storms.

[00:02:50]I think the primary mode with these storms are are three things. One, gusty winds. I think we could see a lot of these storms tap into enough wind speeds aloft to get some 40-50 mph wind gusts down to the surface. Could a couple grow vertically stacked and tap into jet stream winds and get a 60 to 70 down to the ground? Sure. I think that's the exception to the that rather than the rule, okay? I don't think it's a widespread deal, but the other two modes that has my interest is the intense rainfall. You have a lot of low-level moisture that's denoted by dew points into the 60s and low 70s. That's pretty above average this time of the year. And the other thing is with the humidity in the atmosphere, we're also going to generate some good charge. So, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning is on the table. So, that's the three primary modes. I am not um I'm not of the mindset this there's going to be tornadoes involved in this because I just don't see the I don't see the um um, dynamics there. I don't see twisting of winds aloft or on the ground. I just don't see those parameters working in favor for tornadoes. But I do think these are going to be some really saturated storms that rolls through the tri-state area.

[00:04:05]So let's go through the modeling together. I'm going to show you two forecast models because there's some confliction and then I'm going to kind of sift through the noise and tell you how I think this is going to happen.

[00:04:14]Nothing is happening now through at least 3:00. You may see a pop-up thunderstorm across northern Dutchess and Ulster County.

[00:04:21]But in the next couple hours, we are going to get into some storm initiation.

[00:04:26]I think it's going to be extremely isolated. I think you're going to have the cold front sagged across I-80 north of the Tappan Zee Bridge. So in case you're going, "Mike, I've no clue where that is." It's right here. That's that line. I think the cold front's in here and I think you're going to get storm initiation happening right attached to the cold front. You're going to get storm initiation in here.

[00:04:49]So the model isn't doing a great job picking that up.

[00:04:52]All right? What it does do is it out of nowhere blows that whole area up. It just explodes that after 8:00.

[00:05:01]I think that is a little too late in the game. I think it's a 6:00 to 8:00 storm initiation for the entirety of the region.

[00:05:09]So I think this is a little too late.

[00:05:11]And I think the storms are going to go up until around 11:00 and then it's done. And then the line kind of splinters apart. We start to switch our winds out of the northeast direction.

[00:05:20]Look how much chillier it is. 60s.

[00:05:22]Yesterday Last night we were at like 94° at 9:00 in New York City and we're going to be into the 60s at 11:00.

[00:05:31]Now, with this front on top of us, and this is the other thing, it's not a fast-mover. So with this front on top of us, it's going to focus more rain showers and we're going to keep Thursday a wetter day, a shower variety. Look at the push of wind coming in off Long Island Sound. I think a lot of spots high 50s, low 60s for daytime highs. And then we're going to get rid of the rain and push that to the south and east. By Friday, some bright spots, some bright spots, especially to the north and west of the city. Hudson Valley may go to full sunshine and we'll get into the low 70s.

[00:06:03]Meanwhile, the Jersey Shore easterly winds, that'll keep you into the 60s.

[00:06:08]And then we start to look towards Saturday, which is is very wet. And I'll get into the Memorial Day stuff coming up. All right.

[00:06:15]Here's the other model. This is the HRRR model, the Her model we call it in the weather business. It I think this is doing an even better job showing the storm tilt where you have the blow-up of convection going on across northwest New Jersey into the 287 corridor.

[00:06:32]I think that's doing a better job um illustrating how it's on a northwest to southeast trajectory uh bulldozing through the Tri-State area.

[00:06:42]Now, what the model doesn't do is it doesn't really pick up on the intensity happening in here. I think we still have very heavy rain and storms going from 9:00 to 11:00. And then it finally catches up with the fact that the front then gets stalled out a little bit and then we have shower variety going overnight from coastal Monmouth and Ocean counties up into Long Island. So, I think the HRR is doing a better job there. It tries to enhance some rain along the Garden State Parkway up into Staten Island. Eventually, that's going to cross into Queens and Brooklyn and Nassau and Suffolk County into Thursday morning's commute. So, I buy that there's some there's some validity to that where we could be tracking rain into Thursday morning's commute. I just don't think it's that widespread. I think it's probably going to be confined to more central New Jersey. So, we got a little bit of a different flavor on these models. One model is bringing the line northwest to southeast. I tend to agree with that. That's more traditional with a cold frontal passage. The other um model just shows that the front is very weak and then we see a an incredible ramp up in intensity mostly focused on the city south and east.

[00:07:56]Half a dozen of this, six of another, right? It's the same equation to getting us to a stormy situation as we move into the afternoon and evening hours.

[00:08:05]Now, who can see stronger storms versus who will not see stronger storms? We look at that with storm energy. The one trend and why the Storm Prediction Center finally upgraded us this level one is the amount of moisture moisture and cape that is going on like now through at least 4:00 where your cape values are exceeding 1,000 J/kg.

[00:08:28]That's a lot of fancy weather talk.

[00:08:30]Anything over 1,000, this is the cardinal rule, anything over 1,000 is numerous severe thunderstorms. Anything from 500 to 1,000, isolated to scattered. So, you could see how places like Monticello, northern Rockland County, Orange County, you don't have that type of storm energy whereas Belmar is 1,200 J with dew points well into the 60s. Edison, Old Bridge, even the city.

[00:08:57]So, that is your best area if you were trying to say, "Okay, Mike, who's going to see the most intense storms and when?" And that's really city south and east, okay? And then we get a completely stable atmosphere and we can get rid of that model.

[00:09:10]Uh spin is not is just it's negligible.

[00:09:13]All right? It's not really there. So, that's why when we look at storm helicity on the models, uh it's just not really there.

[00:09:20]So, that is what I think for the storms today. When I come back, we're going to take you through the Memorial Day timeline because there's a lot of problems for the Memorial Day weekend.

[00:09:27]Not going to sugarcoat it, but I'm not going to say it's a washout. That's next.

[00:09:38]You're watching [music] Forecast Focus with Mike Masco.

[00:09:43]All right, so we just took care of the two weather alert for the heat and the storms. Let's get in and we're not weather alerting the Memorial Day weekend. I'm just going to say I don't need a I don't need a banner and some red text to tell you it's going to be a crummy weekend.

[00:09:56]Not every day. So, let's get you through the timeline and I'm going to use the global forecast system. It's the GFS model, okay? So, I'm showing you raw forecast models. We'll massage this as we talk through this together.

[00:10:08]This front, by the way, that brings us the severe storms today, that's off the coast by Thursday night.

[00:10:14]I the optimism here on Friday to get you into the weekend is yes, it's a much cooler maritime flow. You have the winds backing in off the ocean. The ocean water temperature is 56°. What a horrible story in the Rockaways of that drowning. They never found that they somebody drowned off the Rockaways yesterday in case I'm catching you up.

[00:10:33]And they never found the body or they haven't found the body as we're shooting this right now.

[00:10:37]This is a testimonial to the fact you have to be really, really careful this time of the year. The rip currents are so much more intense. The water temperatures are into the 50s. That means it could totally totally make you very confused, disorient you because of how cold it is.

[00:10:55]Pre-hypothermia stuff if you try to go in the waters.

[00:10:59]And that is what happens every year this time of the year. So, I just have to give you that one PSA. Please, please, please, if you have to if you have to venture into the waters, just put your toe in. I mean, that's going to be enough to cool you down.

[00:11:11]There's no cooling down aspect this weekend. It is all Mom Nature air conditioning through the weekend and it's because that northeasterly wind.

[00:11:19]That northeasterly wind will actually keep us a little drier on Friday. Is it sunny? No. We're pulling in clouds off the Atlantic.

[00:11:27]Now, Friday night if you're going out, you're going to get into the rain. Late night into Saturday morning. Saturday morning starts off soggy. It's cool.

[00:11:37]It's misty. The ocean effect is going to be fully in. And watch how the just this low that sits over the region just continues to expand the rain showers.

[00:11:47]And I can't even say go north. I can't even say go to the Poconos or the Catskills this weekend because I'm seeing showers getting all the way up towards Port Jefferson or up towards Florida, New York. I Could you go to maybe Lake Placid or Saranac Lake Shore?

[00:12:04]Go go up to Canada if you want to escape the rain.

[00:12:08]Now, Sunday, I my optimism is there that this isn't going to be real. I don't think this is real. I think that we're probably just cloudy with some mist and off-and-on showers, but I think the majority of Sunday is drier. I I just That's just my gut feeling on what I'm looking at.

[00:12:29]This particular model, Mike, why you may be asking, "Why is it showing that?"

[00:12:33]It's showing this little low just sitting here. I just don't think that's reality.

[00:12:37]And then, of course, on Memorial Day Monday, we carve out some dry, but then there's another front off to the west, and I think that that's going to bring in some late day showers. So, the big trend is, of course, the big cool down, right? Over the weekend. And of course, Mom Nature, because she's just a cruel, fickle one, wants to bring back warmth and heat after Memorial Day. So, before we get bulldozed with the heat after we're back into the 80s and mid-80s as we go into next week. I I don't know what to tell you.

[00:13:08]Uh Somebody did something wrong and put that out in the universe. I didn't, cuz every year it's it's always fickle these Memorial Day forecasts. This is just not our year.

[00:13:18]New York City based forecast, coolest, wettest on Saturday, Sunday. Showers better on Monday, way better on Tuesday and Wednesday. There's the cruel joke, New York City. Long Island's going to be tricky. Uh high 50s, low 60s, depending on where you are. Nassau County a little bit milder, and then we're back into the 70s and 80s after Memorial Day weekend.

[00:13:40]Shocker. Jersey Shore, you could still go to the boardwalks and enjoy. I think Sunday's your better day for the boards.

[00:13:46]Uh Saturday's not. Saturday's a cooler, rainier day, and then we're back into the 70s and 80s after Memorial Day weekend.

[00:13:54]I don't know. I tried. I really did try.

[00:13:57]I just knew we just totally screwed this up. Uh 59° tomorrow in the suburbs, and then similar deal. I mean, the suburbs could hold on to some much chillier stuff and rain showers on Saturday, and then back into the 80s racing close to 90 by the middle of next week.

[00:14:15]>> [sighs] >> I'm sorry. I don't I don't know what to say. I'm I'm sorry. We I thought we would do better. Hey, at least you got Sunday. That's That's nothing to sneeze at. All right, we'll update this forecast together. Be very safe out there with these thunderstorms. We'll see you again tomorrow.