OIL will have a TOILET PAPER PANIC Event

本站添加: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]What's up, folks? I hope you're all having a blessed Saturday. We are back with a weekend banger. I got my voice back. I took my meds. So, we're going to be able to power through today's episode together. And today, we're going to talk about something I call the toilet paper trade. And what do I mean by that? Well, you all know what I mean by that. Come on. Remember what happened in COVID with toilet paper? Everybody was trying to There was some panic. Everybody wanted to get toilet paper because the lockdowns are happening. People were stockpiling toilet paper in their garages. You couldn't park your car in your own garage. I mean, that was what was going on with toilet paper back then. And we're probably going to see something similar to that coming our way. And let me explain to you what I'm talking about. Now, before we we talk about toilet paper, I want to talk about the Pavlovian dog here. And who is the Pavlovian dog? That is you. You are Benji over here. All right. And who's sitting across? Well, it's the experimenttor Pavlov aka Axios. Axios. But actually, it could be anybody else. It could be unusual whales. It could be uh all the other, you know, outlets and news aggregators online. All right. But I like using Axios. And what's going on here? Well, you know, the Pavlavian dog experiment.

[00:01:21]Ring the bell, give food, dogs start salivated next time you ring the bell.

[00:01:26]Um, and that's what basically we're reduced to in 2026. That's how we trade, right? So, Axios comes out with some breaking news from some Iranian, US, Pakistani sources that ceasefire, peace deal in the next hour, now in the next minute or it's already done. Trump just needs to sign it and you start salivating.

[00:01:50]That's the stock market going up and that's basically what and this is going to continue. So, what was the most recent one? Oh, deal is done. Trump just going to go into the situation room uh where Mike the situation is for all you old school MTV realorlders out there and you know going to make the final decision uh on on you know the deal the peace deal. And of course at the end of the day on Friday Trump walked out of the room and there was no decision made.

[00:02:20]Yeah. So, are we going to have more Axios and uh Pavlovian? Uh, yes, this is going to happen. Is it going to happen?

[00:02:28]I believe until, you know, basically there's this 12 billion demand that Iran has and and they're going to string that out and do this Axio thing for as long as you can with the Pavlovian dog until the, you know, push comes to shove and a final decision has to be made whether or not you can pay that $12 billion upfront fee to start the negotiations or not.

[00:02:50]And we're going to string that along until as far as we can until basically the toilet paper trade or the global economy has a big swoon. So what I mean by the toilet paper? Well, basically you've got a stash of supply.

[00:03:06]Okay? And that supply could be anything.

[00:03:11]In the case of CO it was toilet paper.

[00:03:13]In the case of oil it's the SPR or strategic petroleum reserves. But that's not the only stash of supply. The other stash of supply is your savings. I'm talking about your savings account in your bank. That is your SPR for your normal account. Okay? That so that's your stash.

[00:03:34]But what's going on is the consumer in America is been has been drawing from that stash, right? not just putting more into that stash, but also drawing from that that stash.

[00:03:50]And what's happening is there's not much stash left anymore. And what happens when the stash runs out? You get the toilet paper moment.

[00:04:00]No supply. Everybody wants it.

[00:04:03]Gone.

[00:04:05]Now, how do we know this is going on?

[00:04:07]Well, the the latest data is showing this, right?

[00:04:10]Look at how much the credit card delinquency has shot up. 1.25 trillion.

[00:04:18]And you know how it goes. First goes credit card. The credit card is the first thing you are okay with going delinquent on because you only get a next credit card, your FICO score or whatever. You can get a new credit card, but you don't really lose anything. The next thing to go is your auto loans because you can go late but then if you go too late, you're going to lose your car and then you can't drive around. So auto loans is the next to go and the last thing to go is where you live where you sleep every night where you know your house is that you really don't want to let go people this will this is the last thing to go and if you see what happened back in the 0708 crisis these were the levels and at least for credit cards we're already approaching the levels of the 0708 financial crisis I mean make this just just straight up data. Okay, I can't get too excited. If I get excited, I feel like I need to cough and then I need to do more editing and that just just sucks. So, I'm trying to contain my excitement here so that I don't cough. So, if I sound a little dull today, cut me some slack. All right, we're up here, guys. Okay, so this this is undeniable data. just, you know, just understand the situation you're in. Auto loans is already above it. It's the mortgages that haven't gone up because it we're not sitting in the the the bubble today is not based on mortgages.

[00:05:48]Okay? I mean, there's a lot of issues with debt, but we're not having ninja loans and all that stuff. So yes, we are not up there with mortgages, but mark my words, that is already on an uptrend, and I wouldn't be shocked if it were going to join credit card loans to be above what it was back then in the 0708 financial crisis.

[00:06:08]Now, the data that came out last week also tells you that the US consumer is out of savings. The person's savings rate collapsed by 1% to 2.6, which is just shy of the all-time low.

[00:06:23]So, nobody's saving. Why? Because they're not making money. Everything's costing more.

[00:06:30]This is telling you that that stash is is not only being drawn out, but nothing is going into the stash. So, this is really not good. And the whole point here is at some time in not the too distant future, you're going to have that stash run out, which means you can't draw out. And then what? Then you're going to have bankruptcies. Then people not going to pay their mortgages, the last thing they're clinging on to.

[00:06:58]Then there's going to be a negative reinforced downward spiral in consumer spending. And we already saw this last week when I showed you the consumer confidence index, right? How they feel.

[00:07:10]I know it's survey data, but nevertheless, it was the all-time low ever, the University of Michigan data.

[00:07:17]And so now we have actual factual data.

[00:07:20]This is what I mean. You survey data, but you need to confirm it with actual math data. And here is the math data that I'm showing you on top of what we saw last week. So now it's there's no debate. You cannot debate and can't say like, oh, people don't do what they say even though their sentiment survey. Now we have data confirming what they're saying. So now it's it's done, right?

[00:07:44]There's there's no debate. The consumers is done. It's it's over, right? There's no question anymore.

[00:07:51]And if that's the case, well, well, what's going on with the spending? Well, if you look at the spending, the top 10% of US earners account for nearly half. So half of the spending, 50% is almost because just from the top 10%.

[00:08:10]And the bottom 80% they they account for less than 40%. So that means that it's just the rich getting richer and spending money whereas the the 90% the rest of the population aren't spending.

[00:08:24]And you understand this can't continue for too long. Why? Cuz people at the end of the day were animals. We get angry.

[00:08:35]People will get that's why people got angry. That's why we the things that you see happen and you see explosions whether it be a riot here you know some movement there or some capital storming here people just had those are just examples of venting of the anger but this unrest this is is is amassing for the mass majority of the population and the few who are rich are getting richer and they're okay but you know this polarization leads to bad things if it's left unchecked over time. This is how revolutions happen. Just ask the French with the French Revolution, how polarized between the rich and the poor was back then. This is not a path an empire wants to be going down, but it seems to be going down in an accelerated way where just the rich get that much more richer and the poor just get that much more poorer. Is not a good situation. I'm telling you long term at least, this is not healthy for a fact.

[00:09:37]Then people say, "Well, look, the stock market's all-time high. Stock market's all-time high." So everybody's No. No.

[00:09:44]Why? Because the data shows. This is as of the end of 2024. So 25 20. We're in 2026, but it hasn't really changed.

[00:09:54]Who's in the stock market? Who owns it?

[00:09:57]The top 1%. Okay, top not even 10% the top 1% of people own half the stock market.

[00:10:08]Then the next 9% own the next almost 36% or 40% of the stock market which means the bottom right which is what 1 + 9 is 10. So the next so 90% of the US owns 10% of the stock market which is not a lot. So when we say like oh the stock market's going up no it's the top 1% primarily big primarily with the the other 9% to make the 9% scuttling in that are making a lot of the money in the stock market.

[00:10:45]Billionaires become multi-billionaires and 90% of the population they own the last meager 10%. Most don't even own.

[00:10:55]No, they it it is not stock market going up is not making people better. It is just because again this polarization that's going on. And so the reason I'm bringing this up is there is going to be a toilet paper moment. I sometime in the future it is coming. The signs are there just like you know we learned from co where there's going to be no stash and people are just going to flip out.

[00:11:25]They're going to flip out when the stash runs out and the stash is running out.

[00:11:31]Now that's everything I've been talking about is the United States consumer as a critical component of consumer spending 7% of the economy. But that's not the only toilet paper trade I'm talking about here. In fact, the bigger one that I'm talking about, the one we can talk about because we have more information that's axios coming out every second of the day is oil. Oh god, I got to get Axios gets me excited, man.

[00:12:03]Makes me want to cough. But here, so oil is another one. So we will be facing a toilet paper moment in oil and oil traders know this. But let me let me let me just run you through it really quickly here. First thing is we know oil prices are rising and we know that that means inflation is going to rise. There is absolutely no question about it. Oil is a leading indicator of CPI.

[00:12:32]So, you know, if oil has gone up like this, you know, I and I brought this up the last time, just watch what happens.

[00:12:39]We already got the PPI last week and that was like, you know, orders of magnitude higher than even the highest prediction. So, you know, the producers are going to get squeezed and they're going to have to pass some of that increased cost to the consumers, which means CPI will eventually rise. But this is this is an omen. Okay, we we we this is this is happening. So you see how important it is for the governments to manage and make sure oil doesn't go up whatever they they can. Okay, oil can't go up because and once inflation goes upon adios.

[00:13:19]Now oil price has gone up but it hasn't gone up as much as some people thought it would. We were thinking, oh, you know, some people are think 150, even $200 oil. But no, oil is now actually as of Friday, it closed at like a 90-ish, right? A little under 90, over 90, depending on which exchange you're looking at. But point here is it hasn't gone up. And so everyone's thinking, well, you know, you're all wrong. You know, oil's not being used. There's huge demand destruction, whatever. It's not a big deal. But what's actually going on is just look at the global commercial commercial crude inventories.

[00:14:00]Okay, so 2024 is yellow. 2025 was aqua.

[00:14:04]2026 going into week 23ish is red. Look, it's the same. It's flatlined. In other words, the oil supply in the world, the actual amount of oil in the world hasn't changed. really hasn't changed that much. But then you're like, well, how's that possible? Isn't there a war going on with Iran? Isn't the straits of Hermuz closed? Shouldn't there be like a 10 to 15% like drop in the supply oil?

[00:14:35]All the tankers are stuck in Iran. And that's absolutely correct. They are stuck in. So, how how is this? Well, just like the consumer who's been drawing from their stash, taking their 401k, emergency loans out, you know, destitute loans out and hard times, hardship loans out from their stash. The governments have been doing is they're taking from their oil stash, all the oil that they piled up for emergency purposes. You can make a case that this could be one of those emergency cases.

[00:15:10]They've been pulling out from the stash.

[00:15:12]And when they pull out from the stash and put it onto the global oil market, the supply of oil kind of remains constant. Which is why we haven't had essentially the toilet paper moment yet for oil despite the drop in production and export out of the Middle East. So that is why we see and this is again this is data.

[00:15:33]And you know at Anasal put this together and that pretty much shows you visually the actual data of what's going on with the supply.

[00:15:45]But look at what's going on with the SPR which is the strategic petroleum reserves. The stash Biden did this. We were trying to and then the stash is going up. In fact, the stash is going to hit the low again. In other words, we've been just pulling oil out of the stash. And for the United all the countries, it's not just the US, but all the countries. I'll show this to you. But the US is pulling out of the stash. And the the thing is it's not even using the stash. It's been exporting to other countries that are desperately because of what they need to have the glo remember oil is a global market. US can be happy and hunky dory, but if the global market, you know, has a freakout moment, that's going to come back and bite the US as well. So, they've been taking out of their stash, which is running low, going to hit lows we haven't seen in decades soon, and not even using it, and just exporting it out to the rest of the world, primarily Asia.

[00:16:47]And you can see here the linear chart, but now looking at the actual draw amounts. And look, this is a record draw. This is weekly. So two weeks ago, we had the most drawn out ever. And then just last week, we had the second most drawn out ever. So the last two world records in draws from the reserves was just the past two weeks.

[00:17:10]This tells you how desperate things have or are becoming. We're sucking out of the reserve at new records that we haven't seen. Why things are bad? Obviously, right? If things are great, why are we sucking out as much new records and sucking out of the obviously it's not good, right? And obviously, this can't continue forever because the stash is running low. So, what are we going to do? The moment of truth is coming soon, aka the toilet paper moment. Now, if you break this down into further uh detail, and I'm not going to go through uh too much detail because this could, you know, be a little bit too much info, but I bring it up here just for at least for you to see visually that you know the the other lines are like what happens in the five and average year and the last year and the current year. And then this this gray is the range. This is a time when we usually build up supplies. If you look at total this is so this the other two lines are the past couple years we build up supply we've been drawing down this is the opposite has been happening and look at the trajectory so this is obviously not sustainable obviously going to going to have some serious issue look at gas not good this is going to come to an end one way or another it's either a deal struck and the the the the ports are completely open and even if he did which I'll talk about it's it's already too late or I don't know worse right we go back to war and and somehow force it open uh which will be even worse I think now this shows you the stash okay from not just the US but around the world now so now we're talking about the global stash not just United States stash and what you see here is what has been planned and what and what has actually been drawn. So this much this is the past. This is how much we drew out of the stash. Now if you look at it, the US plays a big part. But look who's been playing an even bigger part. Japan.

[00:19:26]Remember Japan imports like a significant like amount of oil from the Middle East. Japan and South Korea.

[00:19:32]Japan has a much larger stash than South Korea because they're care. They're more careful and not degenerates. I can say that because I'm Korean. Um. All right, Zag, try not to laugh.

[00:19:44]Uh, all right. So, look, what I'm showing you here is we're as we go into June, this will be the plan for June. Now, we're in June, right? We're about to start June.

[00:19:59]But what happens in July? What happened to Japan? Look at the stash. It drops primarily because Japan dropped off and even the US is going down. and the rest are just like n why Japan is not going to be drawing from its reserves anymore. Now, I just want to be clear here. Japan actually has more in its reserves, but legally they can't draw more for a reason. It's very risky for them. If they draw even more and they're so dependent on oil imports, they could run into, you know, an engine, right? Imagine engine with no oil. It'll explode.

[00:20:42]I mean, that is what will happen. So, it it's too risky. That's why legally they sandboxed it. Like, don't take out this one. And then it was all under the premise that everything's going to get solved with Iran by a certain date in June.

[00:20:58]But here we are. June's about to begin.

[00:21:00]Where are we? Where's the deal?

[00:21:03]There is no deal. And as I said, you're just going to keep headlines saying deal in the next second. Deal done. Just need signature. Blah blah blah. No deal. No deal, guys. This Axio stuff has been going on now for almost a month actually.

[00:21:19]So that means unless Japan undergoes legislation to overturn the law and extract more and take an even bigger risk, the stash in the world is going down. It's going down. And the whole point here is eventually there's going to be countries are not like the Japan situation.

[00:21:38]They're not going to want to draw from their stash because it's just too dangerous. There's going to be a calculation made at some point where they'd rather draw on their money stash than the oil stash to keep things going because if the oil stash goes out, the engine explodes and they can always print money. So there's going to be some point where, you know, the intersection between print money and pay for for the oil versus taking, you know, the stash out of their dwindling reserves where if they have none and there's no deal and continuation of what's going on, the engine will explode. Well, you know, you're going to just print money and whatever. Pay for whatever it costs. That that's a better way and protect your stash. You see what I mean? And that is the toilet paper moment. Now, uh, you know, you might think I sound like I make I mean, look, I'm a nobody, dude, okay? I'm just some some dude, okay, on on YouTube. But don't listen to me, man. I've shown you in my previous episodes, Exxon CEO, Chevron CEO, Shell CEO, you know, the Saudi Arabia Aramco CEO, all saying the same thing that this is unprecedented, you know, right now.

[00:22:59]Now, the latest one is we have the Exxon senior vice president coming out and saying, "Look, we're seeing really, really, really low levels in oil inventories."

[00:23:09]He's as Neil Chapman's SV SVP. He is an executive. He came out on an interview and this went kind of viral. Thus, this will force the price of oil to shoot higher, right? And crude right now, the market hopes for it's all based on opium. And he used the word shoot. I use the toilet paper because that's what happens here.

[00:23:32]Boom. Everyone wants toilet paper. Price for toilet paper goes up or there's no more toilet paper and you're if you didn't prepare ahead of time, you're wiping, you know.

[00:23:43]All right. to stop laughing. See, my voice is starting to go down. Okay, keep it down. Say, so the details of what he said in the interview, well, he said, look, we're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low. This is a guy who is a senior executive at a major major, you know, oil refiner.

[00:24:06]You're going to hit this really low levels in two, three weeks, maybe three weeks. But once you get to that point, you will see aka the toilet paper situation.

[00:24:15]And he says most people have modeled this and it's going to shoot up.

[00:24:20]The models will tell you that it's math and many people modeled this math and you need that to happen. The price shooting up for then demand destruction.

[00:24:32]There's a sequence here. You can't have demand destruction without price going up. and prices haven't really gone up according to the models. So the sequence and it has to be a sequence. It's sequential is prices really need to go up. Reality needs to happen and then that then triggers the demand destruction which then this triggers the prices now to come back down because demand has gone down. That is the sequential order of what needs to happen. And we haven't had the initial sequence of oil really spiking up yet. It hasn't happened, but it is coming. The all the oil executives and it's not just the oil executives.

[00:25:13]It's also the multinateral uh organizations like the IIA or um individual people from different like oil producing nations. They're all saying the same thing. Sometime around mid June to early July is when the stash kind of runs out. And that is the come to Jesus moment when the toilet paper situation occurs. And make no mistake, Trump is aware of this along with everybody else. Everybody's aware of it.

[00:25:42]The Iranians are aware of it. Everybody knows this because it's math and you can model it. So the moment it turns into math, uh we know the numbers. And around this dates of around mid June to early July, everyone's playing, you know, the game of chicken, the Mexican standoff game where everybody has a gun pointed to between Iran, um, you know, the United States, and then all the players in between, the oil executives, so on and so forth. We all know this. Uh, maybe the average person doesn't know this, but the people in the industry, they all know this. It's an understood thing. They they they try not they play games around it with propaganda to confuse the average person who may or may not know this, but that's what all these news headlines and all these things are going on. And so they're trying they're getting closer and closer to that edge. I believe we've already pass the point of no return, and I'll show you why. But there's going to be like the real point of no return that we're approaching and they're just playing as far, you know, like that song, don't push me close to the edge.

[00:26:53]I'm trying not to lose my edge.

[00:26:57]That is coming, my friends. So, let me tell you what one of the big uh dark horses we don't know. Nobody. This is the one nobody knows but is something that could hugely impact the oil market is China. Now what is ch China is China's super smart because they created the hugest stash of oil. Their stash is the hugest stash much bigger than Japan stash because they are the number one you know importers and user of oil. So, their stash is this crazy stash, okay, that they have of they they have like piles and piles of toilet paper in their garage and they've been using it. Why? How do we know? Well, their imports from Seabor, which is basically most of their oil, has Look at that. It has dropped ever since they've been using their stash.

[00:27:53]Look at this. This is They've been No, it's up here. Usually they're down here.

[00:27:59]They they're using their stash.

[00:28:03]But at some point, like I just said, China's going to think, "Hey, we need to probably protect our stash.

[00:28:10]Even though it's huge, we need to protect it. We probably should stop using our stash. We can't do this forever. We don't we don't want to get too close to the edge here. So then we're going to just have to start. we're going to enter the oil markets and actually buy if now if China enters the oil market they make that we hit that trip wire and they determine look national security we need to stash and they're like look let's just buy oil from the markets and you know if we need to print we print or whatever and buy oil then that's going to the demand for oil is going to just whatever demand destruction is going to be more than offset by whatever China's so this is why the the p there's just so many things pushing the price of oil up as we get closer and closer to the edge. So, China is the dark horse here.

[00:29:01]And you know, peace deal this is this is like when you you see this little blub here that was when this new peace deal over the weekend last weekend going to be signed. Figured it out. The week went through. Nothing got signed. But amidst all that hope, what happened? Nothing. Look, nothing.

[00:29:22]This is nowhere near up here. We're down here.

[00:29:26]We're still nowhere up here. And this is the latest data. Okay, this is this this is what I mean. And this is likely going to continue no matter how much they're trying to, you know, fake headline news, oil in the futures, paper markets go down.

[00:29:43]But the more important thing is what how many of the ships are going in inbound transit is what matters is none again. This is what it used to be like I show is none. No no no no ships are going back in to fill up to go back out.

[00:30:01]And that is a bad thing because yes there are thousands of Okay, couple of things. There's there's like a couple of thousand ships loaded with oil stuck in hormuz that can't get out. Yes, that's true. But one number one you got to thing you got to understand these ships let's say they Horus opened yesterday the ships can't just leave why the ships they don't have fuel ironically what do I mean by that they need fuel to run the ship's diesel engines and that fuel is gone they've been sitting around most of the ships a few ships have been re refueled but most ships low on the fuel tank you might ask well why don't they just take the fuel that there and put it into the you know they're they that's a ships these VLCC's run on different oil that's very thick that's used to run it's a very it's like jet fuel it's a special type of fuel for the ship's diesel engines and they can't just do that. So, they need to figure out where they're going to go to top up so that they can actually sail out even if the straits are open and there's no mines and nobody's shooting at them. And that's going to be a problem because let's say it opens and they're all like, "Okay, now we all got to refuel." So, all the ships suddenly try to all refuel at once. Well, you know what happens?

[00:31:21]It's like the internet. Everybody goes to the website at the same time. The website crashes on the same thing. All these ships are going to try to refuel now cuz the coast is clear all of a sudden. So they oh let's go and refuel.

[00:31:32]They're not going to refuel now when it's unclear, right? They're going to refuel when it's for sure. So then everybody jumps the gun. Everybody tries to go to the gas station to refuel their ships. Gas station going to be what?

[00:31:44]Like the website it's going to be crashed and not enough fuel all of a sudden with this huge spike of demand.

[00:31:50]So that's the first thing to understand.

[00:31:51]Not all ships can just take off at the same time once. All right. I don't know if how many of you know that but that's a fact. Now the second thing is after let's say they all finally take off.

[00:32:02]What's more important is how many come back cuz coming back is going to take again four to six weeks couple of months to travel right back and forth. So now we're looking from June, let's say it opened yesterday, then you're going you're looking at June and July to go unload, come back to refuel, and then to get out there is yet another like a third trip, right? So you're talking three trips. Go out, come back, go out.

[00:32:31]And each trip's like few weeks, four to six weeks. So we're talking like August.

[00:32:36]That that's just ship movement, the transport. Forget about the production.

[00:32:39]Forget about how long it takes to deon.

[00:32:41]They saying they can take out all the mines in 30 days. We have history. We know it doesn't take 30 days, right? The last Iran Iraq war where Iran mined the same straight of Hormuz, it took them months.

[00:32:54]And you can say we have robotic whatever. It's a lot of it is trial and error. And then it's just psychology.

[00:33:00]Oh, is it really gone or not? That's the other thing that takes time with the insurance companies for the ships.

[00:33:06]So whatever you can see this whole thing is like based on like the absolute best best hopeium case which every as every day passes by is not happening. So th this this crunch is going to you see that all this is slowly becoming reality and the time is going to crunch together into a smack in the face of reality which we're approaching. So that's why I I'm currently still long oil. Now oil has dropped because of all the jaw boning and all this peace still done and it's open and it hasn't another week has gone by after last weekend was you know it was done deal now we just you know it's inches away 95% complete a week passed and we still didn't sign Trump walked out on Friday and no deal now if we look at the structure of the market we we're at here on support and we're very low here on the MACD And so I do anticipate that there's no deal and that reality is going to sink in and that's going to push oil prices to go up along with the MACD to go up.

[00:34:16]So I'm actually long oil again on the weekend. Remember I said these are accumulation zones and this is an accumulation zone for me. So I'm long and this is how I'm trading. This is how I'm trading uh the my account right now.

[00:34:31]And let me just show the last thing.

[00:34:35]They're playing with the futures market.

[00:34:37]Brent crew below 91.

[00:34:41]Gas hasn't come down because gas is the molecules and not paper. And you can play around with paper, but people at the pump want the molecules. And that's why the gas price has not come down because that you can't fudge. And so you see this, you see the difference and at some point reality is going to take over. The last thing I'll say about this oil thing is one of the things proposed in the deal, you know, remember Iran was saying we need reparations from 300 billion to 1 trillion for all damage it cost. So one of the things the US was flinging was a 300 billion investment fund by who would be running it? Our dear friend Steve Wick got Jericho for what?

[00:35:31]Possible real estate deals so they can make money after they blew up RE. Are you serious, dude?

[00:35:38]Seriously. So, we sent these real estate folks to negotiate so they can then take advantage of $300 billion. Obviously, it's not going to be them investing the 300. It would be the sovereign wealth funds of the GCC's, right? Like Saudi Arabia sovereign wealth fund and so on and so forth. But then who are they going to who are the funds going to actually Well, it would be the real estate guys, right? Building stuff out through their companies. I mean, come on, guys. Out in plain sight. Ah, man.

[00:36:10]So, I want to talk a little bit about the equities market now. Even though again, like I said, I'm not investing. I last thing I do is short a blowoff top and I don't want to join a blowoff top here because you never know when the rug's going to get pulled. But here's the point. Remember the uh channel that I drew or I showed you that some people have been looking at, not just me, uh the 100red-year trans. This is in this 1929 crash. Well, we're we actually just eaked up above it. We eaked up above it.

[00:36:40]And we are very overstretched here.

[00:36:44]And so I do I still don't think this is a new paradigm. We're going to just keep going till kingdom come up here. I do think this is a peekab-boo false look above before we mean revert. And we are due for the last decade, right? The last decade. We are due for one one of these lost decades where where we where we just do this sideways. And how do we know this? And I've always said, how do we know this loss? Well, the time between these decades is is ripe. But the trigger is when gold doubles out of the blue. And we had gold doubled up.

[00:37:17]Gold doubled over here. Gold double over here. gold double that that triggered this loss. It said this is going to start when you have these questions about the financial system and gold doubled and I think it's going to start over here and you know how it's we're right we're right who is this is the great martis okay onx he put together it's very clear here this was a dotcom bubble you you see when you have these 90 degrees okay it's it it's literally vertical Okay, straight up. Forget about like this.

[00:37:55]We're talking straight up. Even on a yearly chart like this, these are things that are not going to end. Well, the last time we saw things like this was in the dotcom bubble, and we're likely going to see something similar. Look across the board here.

[00:38:12]Can't look at that and tell me we're not in a bubble. Come on.

[00:38:16]And you know this I believe was from zero hedge but they said that we have now four consecutive record highs and this is on the daily but the four consecutive record highs were on negative breadth meaning it was just a few stocks doing it and the rest of the stocks were actually going down not going up but we had a record high in the S&P never happened before. So now we're super duper we're following the Koreans and Taiwanese in a super concentrated stock market and in any which way you look at it.

[00:38:52]Schiller Buffett indicator risk asset path top 10 stocks this concentration tech leader PE at peak Nvidia RC didn't actually I don't know why they didn't include 2000 here actually I'm not sure who made this table wasn't me obviously but they should have included 2000 because Cisco actually was higher than Nvidia today it was Cisco was at some crazy number so that one is debatable margin debt is higher and the credit channel and the the shadow debt you know back in 0708 it was the cos and all that private debt credit today. But you see in every which way we are we are there guys. We are so there and the the Bank of America bull and bear indicator the BNB we're at 8.5. The highest ever is 9.6. So do we have room to go? Yeah. But then we're going into like you know to do this is this is really really high. And whenever it gets really really high you see what happened 2020 co all this. So it's, you know, what they're saying is everybody's bullish.

[00:39:56]These are surveys. Again, I showed this last So last week when I brought this up, it was at 8.0. Now we're at 8.5, right? 8.0 was last week. So this kind everybody's bullish and I and you know Mc Mleen himself who he invented the Mlen oscillator which is one of the you know stable indicators that tech people technical analysis people use he showed you also that if you look at the NASDAQ versus Nvidia there's huge you know Nvidia's been ropeadopen and fallen down whereas NASDAQ going up. This this is not a good sign. Why is Nvidia is the biggest one?

[00:40:40]Last times we had this didn't lead to good situations and Nvidia continues to drip drip down.

[00:40:48]So keep this in mind as we see uh what's going on with the divergence between Nvidia and the uh NASDAQ and you know look at the US consumer discretion. I mean, it's it's gone, right? Below COVID, below the great financial crisis, Kshape, meaning everything's just AI, every stuff about eating, living, things that matter around you, all going down. All going down. It's crazy what the bifurcation and the overindexing into tech and AI.

[00:41:25]It's as if we can eat semiconductor chips.

[00:41:28]Which brings me to the the craziest of all, which is again my fellow Koreans back in in the motherland. Look at what's going over there. So the government in Korea, they introduced 2x levered and I you know and above ETFs just like there is in the states. But what they did was they said, "Okay, before you can buy any of these, you crazy people, you got to go to education site and you got to learn about the dangers and the risks of a levered ETF."

[00:41:58]So what happened? They they released the ETF and the education site crashed from too much. Everybody all my Korean bro said, "Yay! Okay, let's get the education site certific." So click, click, click, click, click. Yeah. Quiz this and that. Get the certificate. So now I can go and buy the lever ETF. The site crashed because everybody went in.

[00:42:17]I mean, guys, what's going on? What else is going on is this is not good, right? Nursing homes. I mean, they're under 35 male population who is going extinct because, you know, nobody's making babies.

[00:42:33]They're selling their plasma to buy stocks. I mean, this is one step away from selling your kidney to buy stocks, guys. But that's what's happening in Korea. And not only that, people are selling their homes to chase the stock market. People are selling their homes to buy stock. That is crazy.

[00:42:53]But what's crazier, I will not be shocked to find someday in the not too distant future of some some some dude who sold their kidney to buy stocks. I literally like if that happened, I see that news headline, I will not be I'll be like, "Yep, yep, that's exactly yeah, totally expected given what's going." That is the the the level of of crazy of honestly that's a fafo type of crazy, right? That's a fafo crazy. But that's what's going on in in Korea.

[00:43:32]And look at this.

[00:43:37]So here down or here down or here I nobody knows. But the down is going to be like this. And if you think you're going to be able to get out, you're smoking. Same with the Nikay, man.

[00:43:51]The Nikay, too. Crazy. Look, it's already way past. And the Japanese, look, these guys went through it, but they probably, it's been 86. So now it's a whole generation. 2020. So now it's been 40 years. So a whole generation has gone. So the new young generations, they didn't go through this. So they don't know what it's like. So they're going to repeat the same mistakes. And then they're going to get their, you know, their face ripped off and then they're going to be like what, you know, it just hap it's I call it the generational amnesia where the generation goes through it and then they die out and then the new generation goes and then all they look at is oh that doesn't apply to us. Oh no, this time is different. New world, new paradigm.

[00:44:34]Don't listen to the old, you know, stuff. And then they do the same thing and they get their asses handed to them and then they suffer and become like the old angry people and then the new and then they get they die out and the new generation 40 years later come and then it's the same rins and it's the same rinsing that happens. Okay, this generational amnesia and that's what's going on basically right now. Let me let me give you an example. This is the world's richest people list. Top 10 richest people in the world. Okay. In 1987, how many people Japanese? 1 2 3 4 5 6. So, six out of the 10 were Japanese people of the richest people in the world. And in the top five richest people in the world, four out of them were Japanese. The only non-Japanese dude was a shik with oil.

[00:45:30]If I ask you, how many of you actually know who Sumi is, Mori, Koashi, Wasaki, all you have no idea of who these guys are.

[00:45:42]Trust if you're under 30, you absolutely have no idea of any of these these Japanese dudes are. And that's because why don't you know is because the bubble popped and then after the bubble popped, nobody cared because they all went broke broke a dope. And then they don't teach you this stuff and then you don't care.

[00:46:01]But there's going to be this version of this guaranteed never changes. But we need the we need the you know the hopeful stareyed things are different new paradigm people. We need them because that without that we would all be pessimistic and you know so we need that vibe. We need that energy. But I just want to say as much as we need that energy, it's the ones who can leverage that energy but also understand really the past, they really learn from it and don't say things such as this time is different. We have a new paradigm, there's new economics, they stay away from the hubris and they use their energy to then succeed. Those are the people, okay, who really win. And you don't have to be in a certain age group, but you want to be in that in that category. So that that's the thing here, right? Is is we just got to be careful and understand we are entering um I mean, look, we we are really entering we'll be talking about this in the future just in the same way we talk about Y2K. Make no mistake. And what you want to be is one of the few who said, "I I not only did I survive that. I didn't just survive y2k.com bust or I didn't just survive 0708, I actually benefited big time from let me let me tell you and I'll leave you with this.

[00:47:32]The mistake is that people make is that people think that they're going to be, oh yeah, sure, I know we're in a bubble, but I'm going to make money in this bubble." Why? Because I know it's a bubble that's going to pop, but I'm going to get out before that happens and cash in. And everybody thinks that and that's why the bubble continues. Let me tell you why that doesn't that's not reality. Because it it's all under the premise that you are like the guy in margin call the movie that you can look around and hear what's going on and hear before everybody else and get out before everybody else. You'll be the first or one of the first and so you'll get out at the top or near the top. But mathematically it's impossible. Why? Because everybody cannot get out before everybody since everybody's thinking that they can get out before everybody. You see what I mean? It's mathematically impossible.

[00:48:39]Everybody's thinking that they can get out before everybody. That's why they play this game even though they know it's a bubble. But mathematically and logically, everybody cannot get out before everybody. Right? So this is the thing. And so you as an individual think that you're better than everybody else, but mathematically it's impossible for everybody to be better than everybody else. And so everybody chases it. And yes, there's a microscopic few who do get out before everybody else because they have access to info that nobody else has usually.

[00:49:10]And yes, there's a handful who do get out.

[00:49:14]But everybody else, it's just a sliding scale of what I call paper millionaires.

[00:49:18]Meaning, you had a lot of money in profit in the in your tra trading account, investing account. But it just it was it was never it was just that it was phantom money because what happens is the crash happens and you weren't able to get out. And trust me, the reason why the crash happens really quickly, why you do get the vertical down out, vertical up, is because panic settles in and you can't get out fast enough and then you're just trying to get out. And when everybody heads for the exit at the same time, your stop losses are no gone. Now 10, 20, 30, 40% gone. And so then you're just a paper millionaire. And I just that I'm just saying like that's what happens to most of the people and that's why I don't play that game. I try to make money other. So currently I'm making money on the fundamentals based on oil which I think is right uh for a good opportunity based on the toilet paper trade. So having said that, thanks for watching. Hopefully next episode I'll be 100% better and can go crazy and laugh a lot more. See you then. Peace out.