Diplomatic negotiations often fail when fundamental strategic incompatibilities exist between parties, as demonstrated by the Iranian rejection of Trump's peace proposal, which included controversial terms like US troop withdrawal from the Middle East and $4 trillion in reconstruction funding, while Iran's core demands for a regional ceasefire and cessation of Israeli military expansion in southern Lebanon and Gaza remained unaddressed, creating an irreconcilable conflict that markets predicted would not be resolved.
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Iranians Reject Trump's Deal With A Missile STRIKE!Added:
When it comes to negotiating, sometimes it's hard to pick up on the other party's signals. Are they open to a proposal? Are they just trying to stall for time? But occasionally, they send you an unmistakable rejection that hits like a missile. And in the case of the Iranians, it's a literal missile. The Iranians have basically given us their response to Trump's edits to the peace proposal, firing off a ballistic missile at an American base in Kuwait, wounding five soldiers and destroying uh a series of multi-million dollar drones. This is an Iranian FATA 110 missile. And the fact that it was just a single missile, not part of a drone strike package, is more of a message than a real effort to degrade the US militarily. And the interesting part about using a ballistic missile is that it is itself the highest tier of strike package, right? Think of a Shahed drone, right? That costs less than a lot of used cars. Then you have cruise missiles. Uh you and then at the very top you have ballistic missiles which are hardest to intercept. This ballistic missile of course hit Aliaseline airbase in embarrassing fashion wounding multiple personnel and destroying again multi-million dollar aviation assets. But what was it in response to is I guess the real question here. What would enrage the Iranians so much that they would actually fire on Ali Aselim air base effectively resuming the fighting? Well, the answer is that they had negotiated what they were told was a done deal. That both sides shook hands and smiled and said, "Yep, peace is in our time." Until President Donald Trump himself read the deal and suddenly decided he needed to do some copy editing. He made a huge hardline shift during a situation room meeting where Trump proposed several changes that the US and Iranian negotiators had already tenatively agreed upon. Now, this is hilarious for a couple of reasons.
First, it implies that the negotiators didn't actually understand what the president was and was not willing to do or that President Trump himself forgot what he had told the negotiators were his parameters previously. Generally, the way these negotiations work is not unlike negotiating with a car dealership. You sit down with a dealer on the opposite end of the table and that dealer is empowered to offer terms within a certain breadth. And then if you get outside that breath, he just has to go back, do a phone call to his manager and get authorization to add term A or term B or C or D. It is very bizarre then that the Iranians would engage in these highle talks, incident never actually either never knew anything about the deal or even more frightening uh forgot the deal or changed his mind at the last minute.
It's really hard to negotiate with someone who changes their mind. again, how long would you stay at that car dealership if the price changed every single day? Well, this is probably resulting in even the president's son-in-law and the ultimate fail upward nepo baby, Steve Wickoff, uh, pulling their hair out because, well, this is pretty humiliating. Now, after weeks of negotiating with the Iranians, Trump added a couple of interesting parameters here. And there's some that have not been disclosed yet, but there's a doozy that I think probably is uh well, there's a couple that are obvious problems. The first is the 60-day regional ceasefire originally from April 7th that has effectively never been really implemented because the regional ceasefire involves southern Lebanon and the US and Israel have well really the Israel has continued a massive invasion of southern Lebanon.
Now the in exchange for this peace deal and the reopening of the straight of Hormuz the US would gradually remove their own blockade. Now, how do you gradually remove a blockade? Not really sure. Maybe you like let one ship through it uh on the first day, two ships on the second, three ships on the third, some like that. It it's very confusing. But the there is also reportedly going to be a withdrawal of US troops from the region, which is crazy because that is indistinguishable from a surrender, a capitulation. And and don't get me wrong, at this point in the US's debacles in the region, somebody else can go be the regional power there. It us the the United States has gotten no benefits from it. And you look at a country like China that has become a global economic superpower. And miraculously, through some miracle, China was able to do it without 1,500 lost wars in the Middle East. It's a miracle. How? It shouldn't even be possible, right? So the I think some of the one of the other wild proposals here in addition to the retreat of US forces from the Middle East is actually a4 trillion dollars.
This is a real number guys. A4 trillion dollars in money going to the Iranians according to reporting from the New York Times.
Most surprising the there was a recent addition to the agreement referencing an investment fund for Iran. The Iranian official and one diplomat put the number in the investment fund at $300 billion, but other mediators refused to confirm that amount. But if true, it was built as a reconstruction program. Now, the idea that the US would launch a war and then pay to rebuild is kind of absurd.
We sort of did it in the Marshall Plan, but what's really important is that the governments we made those deals with in the Marshall Plan were democracies. They were not the countries that we started the war with. We started the war against a fascist government particularly in Germany and Japan and then we ended the war installing democratic governments and we gave those governments massive loans. In this case we went to war with the Iranians and now we're going to pay the regime back for bombing them which is insane. And again, 300 billion is an I mean, it's a third of a trillion dollars, guys. And the whole entire US economy, not the entire defense budget. Actually, the US defense budget in its entirety is a trillion dollars. We're going to spend a third of our defense budget paying to rebuild Iran. It's absurd.
It is indistinguishable from capitulation.
Right now, Iranian officials say they had proposed to American negotiators that US companies like major oil and energy corporations could enter Iran for investments and joint venture deals, which again is then what was all of the sanctions for? What were we sanctioning, right? What about all the civilians that Trump tweeted about 400 million times?
It is a crazy series of proposals. And yet, despite this, Trump appears to be walking it back. And the Iranians appear to be here to reject it. And the why is well it's it's kind of like they did the meme. But before we talk about it, I want to mention guys that if you haven't become a member of Combat Vet News, supported the channel, allowed me to continue to do this every day and drop some uncensored combat footage uh twice a week, Tuesdays and Thursdays. It's it's my version of Patreon. Thanks to all you guys that do support me. I really appreciate it. The link is in the description. You should become a member, too. Well, the answer is Israel gets a say. Why? Because their campaign in southern Lebanon isn't slowing down.
It's expanding. You might recall that this initially started as an as the IDF occupying southern Lebanon so that it could establish what it called a security buffer zone deterring halah Hezbollah to prevent Hezbollah from launching strikes into Israel. Now, I want to point out that if you before the war in Gaza, Hezbollah rockets had killed fewer Israelis than lightning strikes. So, the idea that Hezbollah was some kind of existential threat to Israel has kind of been a joke. And yet, again, the Israelis and Netanyahu's government adopts a every threat is an existential one. There's no such thing as a manageable threat. Uh so they've invaded southern Lebanon. The problem is that the further they go into southern Lebanon, Hezbollah just retreats back and strikes them from long range with drones.
And so what they have done now is simply expanded their operational their operation. What used to be a border mission, secure a buffer zone around southern Israel, now requires a buffer zone around the buffer zone. Originally, it was denoted as the Latani River, shown here in yellow. But now, the Israelis are saying it's actually the Zatani River. Let's see if I can get this exact river pronounced pronounced correctly. The Zahan Zahani River. The Zahani River. So, I want you to understand this is insane. This is talk now we're talking about invading another sovereign country to the tune of of most of that country guys. This is like this is the entirety of Lebanon here.
And you're talking about the the now we're talking about the bottom 20%.
Lebanon will be nearly as occupied as Ukraine by the time the Israelis take all of this territory. And bear in mind, a requisite for any kind of ceasefire from the Iranians has it's been eminently clear that it has required a regional ceasefire. And that's not the only expansion of the war that the Netanyahu government is pursuing. They are also expanding their control in Gaza.
Why?
It's unclear. But the ceasefire that supposedly ended the war, it now appears to be basically finished as Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli military to seize 70% of Gaza.
And as has been discussed, that seizure, it means annihilation. This is, for example, a before and after of at least one neighborhood in Gaza. You can see every structure, every structure that exists there is being annihilated.
Civilian, military, hospital, graveyard, water treatment plant, military insulation, all of it flattened.
It is meant to be turned into an un an unlivable wasteland. And the Iranians have been clear that the United States is subsidizing this to the tune of tens of billions of dollars a year. And the Iranians are like, "Listen, you have to put a stop to this.
You have to get the Israelis to stay inside of Israel, of the recognized international borders of the state of Israel.
And this is fundamentally incompatible with the Iranian this is fundamentally incompatible with any kind of Iranian condition to a peace deal. The Iranians have made this clear.
We view Hezbollah and Hamas as separate entities. The Iranians do not. And I'm not out here cheerleading Hamas and Hezbollah. But as we, the Americans have seen in places like Iraq, our goal was to eliminate first Saddam Hussein, then it became to build a stable government, then it became wiping away these these extrajudicial militias. But that has never happened.
We just turned them into ISIS. Now we've turned them into Iranian militia. You can't. It is it is you are not able to do this with military force. The Israelis believe they can do so but it's not clear that that is possible and but they are committed to doing so.
Again, we are approaching year three. We are in year three. We're approaching year four of this Israeli military expansion in Gaza, in southern Lebanon, in Syria, and it the US subsidized it has has offered them no check, no no condition on US assistance. You can't do both. You cannot negotiate with the Iranians and you cannot give Israel a blank check to do whatever they want. Not this government. And that is why when you look at the polymarket odds, you can see very clearly that there's no possibility. By the way, this is for June. We're still 30 days away. The odds of straightforward traffic return to normal by the end of June is now below 30%. As dipping as low as 28%. And by the end of July, the odds are it still won't be resolved. Why? Because this the market understands there's a fundamental incompatibility here. And that fundamental incompatibility is simple.
It is the fact that America's chief ally is operating with no constraints on its behavior and on its missions despite it again. Has Israel achieved unprecedented safety from these operations? Not really. No, it hasn't achieved anything.
But it's still doubling, tripling, quintupling down, losing more and more of its own soldiers, burning US taxpayer money, forcing the US to commit to increasingly insane, preposterous interventions in places like Iran for no reason. And that directly harm the US consumer.
The whole thing is absurd. Anyway guys, thanks to our Colonel team members, Christine, GMAT, Dan Al's, Don, James, B, Tum, CM, as well as all the lieutenant here folks. We really couldn't do it without you guys. We appreciate you. We'll see you in the next one.
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