India's Hidden Bull Market Beyond The Nifty | Aniruddha Sarkar Explains Where The Real Money Is Made

本站添加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]Anerod sirkar joining in on the studios to speak to us on talking point of course co-founder and CIO of Equinova investment managers. An always great to have you in. Thank you so much for coming in.

[00:00:10]>> Always a pleasure.

[00:00:11]>> Yeah. Are you feeling um as gloomy about the markets as the screen seems to be? It seems like there is a funk that Indian markets have fallen into right now. Because if I look at it from a perspective of we're heading towards the end of this current leg of the crisis that's clear from where Brent etc are. Uh corporate results have not been half bad even accounting for what's happened in March.

[00:00:35]Why this gloom?

[00:00:36]>> No I think uh I'm on the opposite camp if I have to put it in that way. I'm very optimistic on the market >> because I think where we are seeing >> I'm referring to what the screen is showing. Absolutely. despite all of this?

[00:00:47]>> No. Uh I think if you look at the screen, what you'll observe is that there's a big distinction between where the stocks are moving and where the stocks are not moving. Interestingly, even in this market, there are many companies which are making the new highs and that is something which is very very important. Now, why they're making the new highs is purely because that is where the earnings are happening and I would say the market movers have changed. What used to do well in the past, they are not doing equally well.

[00:01:13]the new sectors, the new companies are taking the lead and that is where I would say it's a market for the investors. You have to pick and choose what you're buying. You can't just blindly go and buy and I'm enjoying this market because this is the market which requires us to do a lot of the work and that is yielding the results.

[00:01:33]I'll just add to that you know you mentioned about the markets being extremely you know kind of you know deep in the red and to be honest uh in fact in my investor letter I just mentioned about you know how the global markets have done compared to that how we have done in the last one year that table it looks so upsetting >> you have markets like the COSP which is like you know 190% up Taiwan 95% even something like the developed markets of the US is up like you know 28%. Msei world index is up 27%.

[00:02:04]Indian markets are in the red. Now that table itself it looks like you know it's very upsetting. But if you move beyond the headline index, there's a lot of earnings which is happening in sectors which are not there in the headline index and that is where you're finding so many stocks sectors which are actually giving you 25 to 30% returns in a month's time which is away from what the index is uh highlighting. Mhm. So well but you know underperformance need not necessarily mean that it'll mean revert right money could well flow continue to flow into these AI models for some time now. So therefore will it could it be that the nifty stagnates but individual pockets do well and could that I mean when you are betting on things are you baking in some negatives from Q1 Q2 results. Yeah, I would say that you know index can continue to be there uh because if you look at the index components what makes up practically 50 60% of the index is your banks, oil and gas and it now practically 55 to 60% are these three heavyweights and all these three heavyweights don't have very great numbers. Now that is where the index can actually now if you look at the the factor why fi money is exiting fi monies typically don't bet on the small caps if you're uh you know engaging with large pension funds endomomen funds in the US and the Europe they want to sign a few billion dollar check you can't accommodate that money in a small cap now where does that money go it goes into all these you know private banks oil and gas uh IT companies and their earnings are not there so that's the reason uh FIS have been exiting India moving money towards other markets. Now within that if I just give you a picture about the FI also uh in fact you know I've put down these FIS into different categories. One category of FI is I would say the long-term money. You know you have all these sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, endomomen funds. Interestingly they continue to participate in India. In fact if you look at the bulk deals and the block deals, you find many of the global uh pension funds, endomomen funds, sovereign funds, they are actually participating in all the blog deals which are happening.

[00:04:09]>> Yeah. The second category of FIS who are actually exiting they are the ones who are more of the passive money.

[00:04:14]>> Now they are the ones who follow the Msei emerging market index all the passive money and the ETF allocators.

[00:04:20]That's a big part of the global allocation and that is where I would say a lot of money has moved out now for a simple reason that if I see in the last one year India's weightage in MSCI has gone down from almost like 19 20% gone down to almost 11 to 12%.

[00:04:36]Now where the money has gone in, it's gone to South Korea, gone to Taiwan. Now any passive money which follows MSCI, emerging market weights, there is no reason why you will allocate to India.

[00:04:48]So all this money which is a passive money is the one which is going out.

[00:04:51]>> The third category of money which is very active in India is the algo funds and we have all our picture on you know the two expireies markets move all over the place and I would say the algo funds are very very active in India. So I would say FI money is not all of it going out but there are segments of it which is going out which is the passive money and unfortunately passive money doesn't follow the small caps and the midcaps where the earnings are.

[00:05:16]>> Okay but those are where the opportunities are.

[00:05:18]>> Absolutely. Absolutely.

[00:05:19]>> So therefore where are you spotting on the back of earnings right >> absolutely so if you look at this quarter the numbers which has gone by I would say uh there's a big distinction of where the numbers are. There are companies and sectors where you have the numbers in the low single digits and you have companies reporting 40 50% Y on Y earnings growth. Now that is where I would say you know sectors like say aerospace auto ancillaries a lot of engineering companies precision engineering a lot of defense companies which are in the private space uh textiles for I would say it's very interesting even textile companies are reporting excellent numbers specialized the chemical companies are reporting even healthcare companies in fact hospitals is one segment which has been reporting excellent numbers so I would say there are different segments of the market which is reporting good set of numbers and that is where as an investor we need to allocate our investments.

[00:06:10]>> Where are you incrementally building?

[00:06:12]>> Uh in fact onethird of my portfolio is into autoank and the power sector.

[00:06:18]>> Oh really?

[00:06:18]>> And I've been bullish on whole auto and the power for the last almost eight quarters. And I think you know what you're seeing today is basically reflection of where the numbers have gone. And if I look at how the allocation of autoank and power is in the index, I would say I'm very very overweight. and uh like I doubt you know you will have auto auto can and power like onethird of the index >> I'm extremely underweight on the banks it even today though yes it's a day when IT stocks are up but I don't have a single IT stock in my portfolio >> wow >> uh I would say that textiles is something which is very interesting and when I textiles uh you have to pick and choose within textiles what you bet on like interesting things are happening on very advanced materials over there and you have to pick and choose where the opportunities are so I would say it's a market for investors to do your work, find the ideas and see where the next leg of growth is going to happen. In fact, to be honest, you know, uh there are companies uh I've been tracking for last maybe 8 10 years. I have not seen some of these companies management be so bullish on their growth prospect and they are doing the capex >> which are I mean I'm not asking you for recommendation which are so there are some in the textiles also you have hardly seen textile companies doing capex. There are some companies who export to the US market in the home furnishing and all. They're putting up almost 40% incremental capacity. Now you don't put up 40% capacity if you're not bullish on your outlook.

[00:07:38]>> So I would say there are segments where growth is there. Auto companies you know I have in fact the other day I was in one of the regions for uh you know meeting some auto companies and uh you know the management says like you know I'm packed for the next 6 months and I don't have any time for any meeting but I know you for a long time. So that gives you confidence that they're actually involved in their business.

[00:07:58]>> It could be scops also.

[00:08:00]>> No, no, absolutely not.

[00:08:02]>> As for a management, I would do that.

[00:08:04]But >> very typically typically in fact you know any management you know who is giving you a time to meet immediately you know that you know business is not >> because he's heard you say this in the past that's why he's like name it.

[00:08:15]>> That's a that's a quick tip.

[00:08:18]Don't be too available if you're speaking to a large investor because if you think you know calendar >> but to be fair we also got a auto ang saying the same thing right was saying the same thing >> you know when you said to be fair I was like what is he saying and they laugh at her before an always a pleasure to have you on we want to invite you back for a longer conversation but we have to wrap up uh for today anerotar there as bullish as bullish can get screen is on one side his portfolio is on the So, do you have that kind of stockpicking ability right now? This is the true test.