El Niño could have Big Impacts across Europe...

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]El Nino is coming and this one could be different for Europe. Thank you for joining me. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields on Mr. Weatherman Europe. It is the 8th of May 2026 of Friday. This here is a big concern. Not all El Nino have impacts across Europe. However, this one could bring drought and not just drought, but extreme drought on top of that. Not just heat waves, but some of those prolonged heat waves that just feel like they last forever. It is this warming here that we're watching in the Eastern Pacific. That's a signal that we have El Nino uh that is at least coming.

[00:00:32]And here's a cross-section of that. This is the surface of the water. And you see this red shading in here. That is the warming we get. That signals we're getting into an El Nino cycle. Not all El Nino really make a big difference in Europe. But this one looks to be different because this El Nino could be a whole lot stronger with some bigger global impacts. And you can see it here the trend that we're expecting and that is or we're seeing this. This is based on what we're seeing in the water. Those water temperatures are really warming in that sector of the Eastern Pacific. May, June, July, we get over toward August, September, October, October, November, December. Right here, the red on the map as we go monthly. This is the probability of an El Nino. That is going to happen. We're already starting to transition into that. But here, these deeper reds, the probability of a strong to very strong El Nino continues to get higher. Those are the ones that provide big impacts across Europe. So, El Nino impacts on Europe. In the summer, the extreme heat uh we all I keep things in perspective on this channel. We know the summertime is hot. We got that. But with an El Nino pattern, we get even more extreme heat. And the issue, the heat waves, they last a long time. And of course, some of those could be life-threatening as we well know, especially depending on just how they set up, how hot they are. Drier than average for many. On top of that, in the winter, and by winter, this could be that strong or very strong Elnino, it is split early in the winter, milder and wetter than average. Late in the winter, colder and drier conditions. If you are subscribed to this channel, I'll be monitoring how strong the El Nino gets.

[00:02:04]So, you'll get those notifications.

[00:02:05]We'll be following this together as we go forward. For crops, typically ones that do well in an El Nino cycle, there's not just bad news, there's sometimes good news. You know how it kind of breaks out. Sunflowers, grapes, olives, things that do well, things that do poorly, corn, wheat, and potatoes.

[00:02:21]And I'll be watching the I'll be watching the strength of this El Nino uh so we can see exactly what is going to happen this summer and this winter. Now, this does not match to an El Nino cycle.

[00:02:32]This is the 46-day outlook. One of the reasons why is we're not yet in the El Nino. We're trending toward that right now. So, you can see a lot of locations actually wetter than average where you're seeing these greens and blues.

[00:02:44]That's wetter than average. Some spots on the drier side where you're seeing the browns. And of course, where we're wetter than average, we're typically cooler than average. And we're seeing that over the next 46 days. These models, and you know, if you're subscribed to this channel, don't just look at the models. Look at what's going on in the environment. Sometimes these models get very uh a big bias based on one or two events. I'm about to show you in this video. Some significant rain on the way. And that really plays into the 46-day temperature and overall rain outlook. But as we get into the summer, this is what we're watching. Now, the early outlook, look at all of this yellow around, maybe the exception the Iberian Peninsula, drier than average.

[00:03:22]Here's the deal. El Nino doesn't necessarily cause a drought for Europe.

[00:03:27]But what could happen is if and I know there's some ifs in this. If we cycle into a drought period, a drier than average period, El Nino can make it worse. And that is the issue. So if we start to see a drought kind of coming our way, drier conditions June into July especially, we will know if El Nino is trending to a strong or very strong, this could be an extreme drought. And where we are drier than average with a strong El Nino, we are going to be hotter than average. and those prolonged heat waves that will be with us. Now, in the short term, I mentioned how it doesn't match up. So, let me show you that. Here's the rain, the Azors, Portugal, Spain, some of that rain, some of that's been heavy. I covered that in the last video that there would be downpours in here and the potential of some flooding, even parts of France.

[00:04:10]That moisture is riding in and you see that moisture. I'll zoom down in just a second. We'll take a look at some of the rain totals, but you see all of this rain in through here. So, some of us getting some welcome rain and some of us some cooler temperatures. Maybe you don't want that, but just depends on location. But there's the rain sliding off by the time we get into Tuesday, sliding off into eastern areas once we work our way into a Tuesday pattern. So, shorter term, here we are in Norway. We get back toward Ireland in the UK. We have this spin here. Another system near Ireland. We've seen some of the rain uh back toward Russia, over toward Lithuania, Barus, Ukraine, some of that rain that's been around. So, some showery weather, cooler, some of that snow around. I've been watching your comments. You've been letting me know what's going on where you are. I'll be going through those throughout the next couple of days. Check in. There's some of the rain as we work our way into Monday. And you see some of that moisture again. Barus, Lia, Lithuania as we go forward. Finland, better chance of rain once we work our way into our Tuesday forecast. Then behind this batch, we're actually going to start to dry out. But here we go. Southern sections watching out here. Western, southwestern sections, Iberian Peninsula. Here are some of the heavier rain. This starts tomorrow. I hope I said that right. This starts on our Saturday afternoon. There's some of the heavier rain that is lifting through France, Switzerland. Watching out for some of the rain, of course, back through the Alps, a little bit of snow depending on elevation, but some of this could be heavy. So, look how showery this is. Then it kind of gets caught up and pulled in that front that's up to the north. So, Romania, Slovakia seeing some of the rain back through Austria, some of it will be on the heavier side and then it shifts off toward the east once we work our rain to Tuesday. And once again, some thunderstorms. Ukraine, Romania, Hungary over toward Bulgaria, Serbia, we could be wet at times, not quite as much. Turkey and Greece, hit or miss showers and storms. Albania, North Macedonia over toward Kosovo. So, as far as rain totals go, I mentioned kind of showery in through here. So, we could see some totals that approach about 25 millimeters of rain. Some of this in through here will be mixed into snow, but still some spots could press about 50 millimeters of rain. Little bit more here. Look at Barouge down through Ukraine, parts of Czecha, Poland where we could have some spots upwards of 100 millimeters of some of the rain. And of course, watching the downpours here for uh tomorrow, even later today into tomorrow lifting right up through France. So, we could see some flooding here, watching over toward the Alps, watching the snow melt as well, watching those rivers with some significant rain that will be a potential. And then you see Romania right there where we could have some spots over 100 millimeters of rain just over the next 5 days. So El Nino is returning sometimes not a big deal across Europe. This one looks like it could be impactful. Uh with that we could see the drought and those heat concerns and those prolonged heat waves as we work our way into summer. But even if that happens, there are always exceptions across different regions. So I'll be covering that. Uh subscribers, I'll put out more and more updates on this as we kind of watch this evolving El Nino pattern going forward. Thank you for being with me. Thank you for being part of Mr. Weatherman Europe and I hope you have a wonderful weekend ahead.