Severe weather forecasting involves analyzing multiple atmospheric factors including CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) for instability, lower-level jet streams for storm organization, and DCAPE (Downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy) for wind gust potential; meteorologists use radar reflectivity and velocity data to identify rotation and storm intensity, issuing tornado warnings when rotation is detected and severe thunderstorm warnings when wind gusts exceed 70 mph or hail reaches 2.5 inches in diameter.
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🔴BREAKING - Ongoing Tornado, Damaging Winds & Large Hail Threat | LIVE CoverageAjouté :
Alrighty everybody.
Good evening. Happy uh March or not March May May 30th uh 2026. We are doing some coverage here for y'all. Um go ahead and give it a second. Make sure everything's working good. Make sure we are live. Looks like we are okay. Definitely good. But anyways, y'all, good to see you guys. We uh do have a bit of severe weather going on at the moment. Uh we did get some new warnings that just got issued here. Uh we do have a tornado watch in effect for the next three hours in the yellow area.
Um you know, this big polygon here. Uh we do have a couple of severe thunderstorm watches here as well.
Um but uh anyways, what's up tabletop?
Saying evening, good evening to you as well. What's up KJ? Hope you're doing well. Good to see you. Hope everyone's uh hanging in there and and doing good.
Uh so the first thing we're going to talk about here uh we do actually have a tornado warning. What's up crews? Good to see you again, man. Uh this includes Holy Oak here. Also including Amherst.
Uh tornado warning in effect for the next 26 minutes.
So we still have a little bit. I'm going to dim my lights a little bit. Make it a little bit easier on the eyes. Cruz, thanks for the 100, friend. I appreciate it for the 100 jewels. Greatly, greatly appreciate it. Thanks for the support.
Uh here, let's hop over to velocity.
Let's uh give that a good check here.
See what we got going on.
Yeah, it looks like there there is a bit of rotation out here by Amherst. You can see. So, there's Amherst. This is a little bit kind of northwest here. Uh, by the way, this is up in um uh extreme northeastern Wyoming is where this tornado warning is at.
But yeah, you can definitely see uh where that is at. Do we get a new watch?
Is that new?
Maybe they're just updating it or something. Yeah, we uh we do have some of those severe thunderstorm watches up in uh northern Oklahoma, uh bits of southwestern Oklahoma here, too. And um a little bit of the eastern panhandle overall. What's up, Ponder Roa? Good to see you. Cruz, thanks for the star, dude. I really appreciate the support once again. Thank you so much, man.
Ponder Roa, thanks for the star. You guys are awesome. I really appreciate y'all. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah, we got quite a few um active severe thunderstorm warnings here too. This one's warned for 70 mile per hour winds out here by Mullen.
Um which is right here in central Nebraska.
We got a lot of warnings popping off here.
Actually looks like a lot of them are warned for uh 70 mile per hour winds.
This one right here out by North Plate, I think that's how you say it. I'm always bad at that particular word. Uh Maxwell Yeah, this one's worn for one uh or sorry, 2.5 inch hail. 2.5 inch hail.
That's pretty crazy. Uh Cruz says, "Just supporting people in the weather community." Well, thanks again, man. I really really do appreciate that. Here, let's pull back up our reflectivity.
We go back a few scans. Oh, yeah. Look at that, man. Holy cow, that was quite the uh quite the core there.
Let's see. KJ, thanks for the gold coin, man. I appreciate it. You guys are awesome.
Once again, thank you all. Seriously, for the people who uh directly support us. Greatly appreciated.
Matthew came over having a watch party.
Oh, really? Well, tell Matthew I said hello.
But yeah, we're we're definitely having kind of a mixed problem right now uh between, you know, the damaging wind threat and that hail threat that we do have. SPC actually um increased the uh risk here for today uh since the last time we talked about it. Um if we hop over to the day one outlook here, did they remove it already? Well, we did have we did have an enhanced risk, but they they must have move removed it already. Um here. Let's see if we can uh pull up our tornado props here today. They do have a 5% though. Yeah, they did they did increase the uh uh probability. I love how they've changed it too. It was significant for central Kansas.
And then they moved that SIG level one risk. It looks northwest up into more of like lower Nebraska. And then they increase the probability of tornadoes here. You know, 5% chance here in the brown, 2% chance in the green here. Um, so the bottom of that 20 of the threats up in like northern Oklahoma state. Um, you know, that does go straight through Kansas, through Nebraska, you know, bits of like northeastern Colorado here, too.
Here, let's bring up our uh our wind threat here. Yeah, we do got ourselves a uh pretty big 15% risk area here today, too. uh with that SIG level one, you know, that does cover a lot of lower Nebraska uh and Kansas here. You know, given that that's a SIG level one, you know, for the wind threat, um you know, based off of what we've already seen today, I mean, we definitely have the possibility of seeing some real strong winds, possibly over 70 mile per hour wind gust. Um I did see a report not too too long ago actually showing that we had uh was it 79 mileph winds here, let's bring back up our live radar here for a minute.
Let's see here. 70 observed.
Was it this one?
Yeah, there was one of these that was observed uh that had reported 79 miles an hour, almost 80 mph winds on these. So, regardless, definitely a big concern with um you know, with that overall.
All right, here let's bring up our uh our hail threat here. Yeah, we do got a big 15% hail threat, too. We can't forget about either, you know, sig level one. Uh I mean, we do have the possibility of seeing hail well over 2 inches in diameter, which we do have that one warning um that is warned for 2.5 inch hail. Um we're going to hop on back over here back to the radar again.
Um, see here. Yeah, this is the one up by uh See, did they they did downgrade it? I think they did. Yeah, they did. They did remove that. Oh, no, no, no, it was this one over here. Yeah, it was this one over here by um Maxwell. Yeah, the one from Maxwell.
This one's warned for 2.5 inch hail. And it's been observed, too. You know, that's been that's been confirmed.
We also have those tornado watches in effect there, too, for the next three hours.
But yeah, 60 m per hour winds on that as well. What's up, Teresa? Good to see you. Roby says, "Had a sketchy cell come through southwest Missouri about 30 minutes ago." Did you here? Let's check your radar real quick.
Oh, yeah. Yeah, we got a couple severe warnings out here. This is probably the one that you're talking about here.
Yeah, there's um couple severe warnings on them. quarter hail, 60 mph winds for both of those uh including Highlandville. But that uh storm is pretty much rolled through at this point in time here, which is uh definitely good. Definitely good. But yeah, those warnings are still down there. The majority of our warnings you can kind of see with this line here.
Um, you know, mostly extends for like central west central Nebraska, uh, cutting into like northern uh, north central Kansas here.
So, yeah, definitely um definitely do have some strong uh, storm or severe storm activity going on here right now.
We're going to hop to our sat view. I'm curious to see.
Oh, yeah. Look at that.
Yeah, it looked like a lot of that deep convection really started popping off about 3 3:00 or so Eastern. So, about 2 central.
I mean, you can just see everything that's just kind of blowing up now. You know, it's really really taking off.
snapped a photo of it on the way out with a rainbow. Came out of nowhere.
Fast absolutely downwards. Same on my Discord. Uh let me check my Discord.
Let's see.
I do not have it on uh or I don't have it up and running on my computer. Oh, wow. Rob, you want me to share this on the stream? That is really pretty.
That is absolutely beautiful.
Yeah, there's our water vapor set s set s set s set s set s set s set s set s set s set s set sat view.
Yeah, it it looked like the models were basically about right, you know, with the timing of um you know, when these storms were expected to pop off here.
Now, in terms of the tropics, we still do have that 80% chance. Nothing's really changed there. Uh next two days, not expecting development. Next seven days, 80%.
Go ahead and mention that.
It's up to you. Okay. Well, uh, here you go. Uh, this is Roy's photo here.
Absolutely pretty. He said what?
Southwest Missouri.
Beautiful. Beautiful. Beautiful.
Let's look at our dues.
Oh, yeah. Tons of moisture. Tons of moisture out there. Yeah, due points are well in the 60s and 70s. Not a problem at all. Um, you know, looking at the cape and stuff like that. We had a lot of instability today. Um, you know, current time is 9:00 Eastern. So, you know, this is roughly what we're seeing here. Um, a lot of instability, a lot of cape is in the environment today, which uh, you know, is definitely uh, helping those storms really kind of pop off there. See our lower level winds.
We do actually surprisingly have a little bit of a lower level jet here.
Um, you know, not anything super significant, about 20 maybe 30 35ish knots or so.
And yeah, that's about 5,000 ft up or or 850 millibar height equivalent.
Um, let's see our mid-level winds here.
Yeah, they're they're not very strong either. our mid-level flow.
As we go into the overnight hours, some of those winds in the mid levels do strengthen, but yeah, not not really a whole lot.
So, here's our future radar. If you guys want to follow along in the time, it's up here in the top right. So, this is also in Eastern time. So, you can see uh you know, this whole set of storms is is going to continue on for the next uh the next several hours. you know, it's going to continue to pop off and uh we're going to still likely be seeing some severe weather um you know, past midnight. Uh there's definitely going to be that good possibility. So, you know, people out here should should definitely keep a close eye on the weather. Um you know, for the overnight hours, we'll we'll definitely have to keep a keep a close look on it. But, um but yeah, we'll uh definitely watch it. Got to throw in the shades here.
got to put them on because uh like I said, they help with my eyes because staring at four monitors for a while definitely uh definitely really isn't the best. It it upsets my eyes quite a bit.
But yeah, um you know, the timing and stuff though, looks like we could start to see some of those storms push into like West Iowa possibly right around like 2 or 3 a.m.
Eastern time, which would be 1 or two central time.
But yeah, pretty much right about now is is uh you know, and over the next couple of hours is kind of the peak of the event. You know, when we're expecting kind of the strongest strongest storms here.
All right, let's hop back to that tornado warning. Still a radar indicated threat here.
Yeah, Roby. Yeah, I don't I don't know why, but it it just really affects my eyes. Like whenever I stare at these monitors for too long, it really does.
Yeah, these these glasses definitely do help quite a bit.
All right, let's check on velocity here.
Um, is there a closer radar? I swore there might have been. Which one were we using a minute ago?
Oh, yeah. So, there there was that rotation earlier.
The new tornado warning here expires in 14 minutes. Uh, which is for extreme northeastern Wyoming, including Holy Oak and, uh, Amhurst area.
Check on CC here. Yeah, we don't got anything on correlation coefficient, which is good. But still, like I said, regardless, you know, confirmed or not, still need you guys to uh to be in your safe spots.
Are those blue light glasses? They are not. They're just ordinary aviator sunglasses. They seem to work, though.
They they definitely do help quite a bit, which is uh which I'm very thankful for.
All right. Um so yeah, so we got that strong line kind of pushing through Mullen right now coming up on uh Sena.
That warning is for 70 mph winds and 75 inch hail.
Also broken bow. We got that line approaching you guys. Arnold, Stapleton, 70 mph wind gusts for Broken Bow area uh and quarter sized hail. Here we also have Arnold and Stapleton uh in this warning for 1.5 in hail and 60 mile per hour wind gusts.
Then we go a little further down the line here. Um we have Nelson and Lawrence which is in by the way this is Nebraska. Probably should have mentioned that a minute ago. Um, but yeah, you guys are in the warning here for 60 m per winds and quarter hail.
So then we transition into Kansas here.
Uh we got a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for uh Haven, Mount Hope, Andale, uh Kwitch, including the um Holstead area, Burton, see SGE, Sedwick and Newton.
Yeah, this one is observed for 1.25 in hail, which is a half-dollar hail and uh max wind gust up to 70 miles per hour.
So yeah, the common the common thing what I'm seeing here is that there is a lot of warnings um that have 70 mph winds on them. Matter of fact, most of these warnings I believe do have like um potential wind gust uh up to 70 mph. So definitely pretty strong in the um you know in the wind field here for today.
You know the damaging winds here. Um you know we got that strong evaporative cooling going on in the in the lower atmosphere. you know, uh, dry lower levels, um, or a big spread between your due point and your temperature, you know, even though the lower levels are very moist. It's just very hot out there. Um, and you know, that that enhanced evaporative cooling kind of helps force air downwards, you know, in those downdrafts, kind of accelerates them. Um, which, uh, yeah, absolutely is, uh, really enabling there to be some pretty strong wind gusts out there today.
What's up, Scott? Good to see you, friend.
Here, let's look at the uh the full picture here real quickly. So, there's our sat view and you got the radar overlay as well.
Yeah. So, right now we're just seeing a a bunch of storms popping off through the plains, uh bits of the Midwest here, the southeast, we do have quite a few storms popping off. Um, you know, but most most of the uh the severe weather right now is in like Nebraska and in Kansas out here.
Definitely could see some real strong wind gusts on this on these storms here today.
What's up, Kate? Good to see you, friend.
Hope you're doing well.
All right, we'll hop back to the main line here. Let's uh let's switch over back to velocity for a minute.
Look at that velocity is showing definitely 60-ish mile winds. I mean, this is only like 800 feet up too that that's scanning, you know, over here. Definitely some pretty strong winds.
Um then we got cows or cowless I think it is. Um definitely got some strong winds out here too by uh amboy I think it is.
Uh tabletop. Not really. No.
Yeah. mainly uh mainly just the planes here uh over the next little bit for uh you know the severe weather and stuff.
Mostly just watching the planes here. Um here let me uh let me bring up our severe weather outlook here. So we have our big slight today.
Tomorrow we got a pretty big marginal and then day three uh day after tomorrow we have another slight risk. But yeah, you can see it's mostly for the uh you know the Midwest and the Plains and and those areas out there. So that's where the uh the main uh concern is definitely going to be here. Y'all give me one second. I will be right back.
All righty, friends. We're back here. Sorry about that.
Um, all right. Let's hop on back over here.
Okay, we'll go and bring up our radar again here for everybody.
Uh let's see here. Radar live radar.
Okay.
Oh, look at this one. This one is worn for Newton and um let's see. Andale Hail or H Hallstead, uh Burton, Haven, Mount Hope area. This one's warned for 70 mile per hour winds and 1.25 inch hail. Uh and like I said, you can see that that observed tag there for the hail. So that's that that's already been observed here. Um definitely is quite a uh quite quite a quite a big storm. You know, you know, 1.25 is half dollar size hail. um which you know is definitely big enough to be classified as as severe hail which uh you know is once you hit hail of one inch in diameter and larger that's when it becomes uh you know considered you know damaging or or large hail essentially. So, but yeah, also, you know, really the main thing that we, you know, got to really look out for, it's uh once again those wind gusts there. You we have those 70 mile per hour wind gusts out there. Um, you know, definitely being a uh, you know, a pretty big concern. And that that's really not far from Witchah either. You know, Witchah, Kansas. So, um, a little bit north of, uh, of Witchah. Hopping over to Topekica for a minute. Look at the radar out here. We do got some popup storms starting to pop off out by like areas just slightly south of Manhattan.
um west of Topeka. Not really anything going on in Topeka right now. Um I think the future radar does show those storms eventually working their way out there. Um yeah. Yeah, Topeka will will probably start to get some of those storms here. Uh probably pretty late, you know, likely after midnight, uh Eastern time anyways, you know, maybe right around midnight central.
Um but yeah, should be out by sunrise tomorrow.
We'll bring back up our current radar view. Hop over to Nebraska for a minute.
Yeah, we got a lot of warnings in Nebraska. Got a lot of them popping off here. Um we still do have that tornado warning which expires in five minutes for Holy Oak and um Amhurst area. So, a bit of a heads up for you guys out there. Um the severe thunderstorm warnings that we have out here is uh most of these are warned for 60 70 mile per hour winds out there. Um you know that line right now is kind of rolling through Mullen uh heading towards Hollyley or Hollyy I should say. Um let's see we also have Stapleton Arnold Broken Bow and Ansley um you know in those warnings there. So just a bit of a heads up there for you guys.
And you know if if you know anybody out there just kind of give him a heads up.
Uh Ruby says, "Thanks, Andrew." Uh you're very welcome. You are very welcome, friend. Glad to glad to help here. Let's hop to Montana. We got a couple storms out here. Uh southeast Montana got a severe warning, quarter hail, 60 mph winds. Uh looks mostly rural areas here.
Also heavy rain with that storm. Up north, we have another warning here. Uh, not seeing any town names any on any of these.
So, I'm assuming that these are mostly rural areas.
Yeah, these ones are kind of on the lower end of the spectrum here. Let's hop over to Missouri for a minute. We got Highlandville in this warning for 60 mph winds in quarter hill.
And in northwest Arkansas, we have uh warning for P Ridge and Garfield for a quarter hail, 60 mph winds here.
So that is that. Um so that's basically what the you know the big picture looks like here. We we really do have this big line that's just kind of uh rolling through here. One thing I do want to look at here is uh is the mezzo analysis here. Let's go and bring that up for a minute.
See, hop over here to uh to the central plains.
We got a lot of cape. There's a lot of instability out here.
Let's pull up our downdraft cape here.
Yeah, some areas well over a thousand.
Like I mentioned, we definitely have some uh some high dupoint depressions.
Uh so basically the gap between your temperature and your due points pretty big. Um which is um you know really enhancing that evaporative cooling um allowing for you know there to be a really good shot for you know damaging winds which kind of helps accelerate that cold air and forces it downward. um you know leading to high cape high high DAP values and um and all that which the Dcape is that you know that downdraft cape or that downwards cape which is uh you know really which the higher it is basically you know there there is greater potential for uh you know stronger wind gusts and um and all that stuff.
So that is that. Um here let's hit over the rain totals here. Let's look at the HR here. Zero Zulu. Yeah, some areas could definitely pick up quite a few inches of rainfall um you know within those storms. I mean these things are definitely uh producing quite a bit of rain. Uh overall definitely are. Um, once again, in terms of our kinematics, you know, our mid-level or sorry, our lower level jet stream here, uh, we, you know, we do have a little bit of a lower level jet, you know, about 30 knots or so. Um, which, you know, is decent. you know, definitely strong enough to uh uh to be a bit of a um you know, tornado concern here, which you know, if we do hop back to our uh our severe weather outlook for today, um you know, we do have that uh tornado prob here, you know, that that SIG level one threat here with that uh that 5% here for bits of like southwestern Nebraska. Um but anyways, but yeah, definitely definitely is uh you know a decent little tornado threat today. Uh both in probability, you know, 5% I consider, you know, a decent potential for a couple tornadoes and then of course um you know that uh that sig risk that we do have, you know, does indicate potential tornado strength up to EF2 in terms of uh strength overall. So that is uh that is that.
So for damaging winds, we do have that 15% risk here with that SIG level one.
Um, so in that hatch risk area, you know, that black dashed region, uh, that is where we could see some, uh, damaging winds, uh, possibly up to, you know, 70ish miles an hour. You know, it's definitely possible. We do have, um, you know, several warnings, like I mentioned right now, and that's been kind of popping off here. That's been uh, well within that 70 mph threshold. Uh, like I mentioned, I did see a report a little bit ago showing uh, 70 I think it was 78 or 79 mile per hour winds out there. Um I think it was in Nebraska. Yeah, I kind of already already kind of forgot what storm it was on, but it was it was here a little bit ago. Um but yeah, definitely some strong winds. Um definitely some strong winds out there.
Will definitely be a big concern here.
Um see, hail, yeah, hail threat pretty similar in terms of probability and significance. um you know that sig level one threat uh where we do have potential for uh you know for hail up to 2 inches in diameter or so. So definitely is uh you know pretty good um you know a pretty good shot for for hail as well.
Alrighty.
But anyways, but that's that's that that's kind of what we're looking at here. Um, if y'all have any questions, uh, do not hesitate to ask.
Let's, uh, go ahead and pull up our other radar here real quickly.
Hop on back over here. Um, do our national radar here. Dude, I I really love our new uh our new layout here.
because I could also play uh you know the loop here of the nation and stuff.
Yeah, so bits of storms are popping off here in the southeast here too. You can see quite a few storms popping off but you know the main threats definitely going to be out towards the plains. Um storms have finally kind of rolled out of the northeast. Not really storms but bits of rain. You know that system that rolled through not really doing much.
Ohio Valley pretty clear. Um, you know, then we hop towards the, uh, central and northern plains. Definitely kind of got that big line of storms going on here at the moment. You know, we do got some nasty severe weather going on. Um, then we hop a little bit further to the south. We got a couple storms popping off in like south uh or sorry, kind of southwestern portions of Texas here, a little bit out by San Antonio terms of a few showers. Um, we do got quite a bit of rain up in the Pacific Northwest, more on the eastern side out by Montana.
You can see um bits of Idaho, you know, got quite a bit of rain. Uh the west coast looks pretty clear for the most part. Um same thing for uh like California. Don't have much going on out there. A little bit of showers up in like northwestern uh Nevada there. But um o otherwise, yeah, majority of the activity here today is definitely going to be out there. Uh you know, towards the plains, um you know, especially Nebraska, u bits of Kansas, uh South Dakota, you know, that's that's where we um definitely do have kind of that uh biggest concern here uh for today.
Um here, let's see. We're going to bring back up our uh severe weather outlook here once again.
So, this is our this is our risk that we do have here.
We'll have to put this back. There we go. Yeah, but we do have a slight risk.
We did have an enhance earlier. We did we did have that level uh level three threat earlier.
But anyways, but I just wanted to hop on here for a minute, y'all. I think what I'm going to do actually um since severe weather's going to continue on in overnight hours, I think I'm going to hold my energy for a little bit. I'm probably going to go live a little bit later on. Um you know, just kind of want to show you guys what's going on now. But like I mentioned earlier, you know, looking back at the future radar and stuff that severe weather is going to continue on, um, you know, into the overnight hours here, uh, which, you know, as we go farther down in time, you know, as we approach like midnight eastern, um, still likely seeing some strong storms across, you know, South Dakota, bits of Nebraska. So, I think I'm probably going to pick it up then. Uh, we'll probably hop back on here a little bit after midnight Eastern. I'm going to say maybe 1:00 a.m. or so, we'll hop back on live for you guys. and um you know that way we'll be able to do some nighttime coverage there and all that stuff. But just want to say everybody, thank you all for joining. I really appreciate it.
Uh sorry for the quick live like I mentioned. Just kind of wanted to do a little bit of coverage here. Kind of talk about what's going on right now. Um but I do plan on going live later tonight. So I hoped to see you guys then. But uh all righty friends. Well, thanks for joining. We'll see y'all here in the next one. Peace out, my friends.
See you later on.
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